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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

Land use effects on sediment nutrient processes in a heavily modified watershed using structural equation models

Contemporary land use can affect sediment nutrient processes in rivers draining heavily modified watersheds; however, studies linking land use to sediment nutrient processes in large river networks are limited. In this study, we developed and evaluated structural equation models (SE models) for denitrification and phosphorus retention capacity to determine direct and indirect linkages between current land use and sediment nutrient processes during baseflow in the Fox River watershed, Wisconsin USA. A large spatial-scale dataset used for this study included sediment nitrogen and phosphorus retention measurements and land use information for 106 sites. The SE models for the Fox River watershed identified direct links between current land use and in-stream sediment nutrient processes. Sub-watersheds with agricultural land consisting of more natural land cover had lower surface water nitrate concentrations and higher denitrification enzyme activity than sub-watersheds with less alternative cover. This suggests that best management practices implemented in the Fox River watershed that restore natural land cover can improve water quality through nitrogen removal on the agricultural landscape and in the river network. Best management practices are not having the same measurable affect on phosphorus in the river network, most likely due to legacy phosphorus stored in the sediment.

Wisconsin↗

Calibrated simulation of the long-term average surficial groundwater system and derived spatial distributions of its characteristics for the contiguous United States

While the physical processes governing groundwater flow are well understood, and the computational resources now exist for solving the governing equations in three dimensions over continental-scale domains, there remains substantial uncertainty about the subsurface distribution of the properties that control groundwater flow and transport for much of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The transmissivity of the shallow subsurface is a key parameter for the simulation of water table position, shallow groundwater flow, and base-flow discharge, but is not well-characterized at large regional to continental scales. We used a process-based inversion of CONUS-extent groundwater information to generate national data sets of (a) the transmissivity of the shallow groundwater system, (b) the depth to the water table, (c) groundwater discharge as base-flow, and (d) long-term average water content in the unsaturated zone. CONUS-extent coverage was developed in the form of 75 subdomain models, with the spatial distribution of long-term average transmissivity for each subdomain model calibrated against water-levels derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observation wells, NHDPlusV2 first-order perennial streams, and National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) freshwater wetlands. Estimated transmissivities were lower in the western CONUS than the eastern CONUS, and across the CONUS both transmissivity and depth to water correlate with recharge, elevation, and topographic slope. These generated data sets provide spatially distributed, long-term average estimates of subsurface properties and hydrological states that we anticipate will complement other environmental modeling efforts as explanatory variables, boundary conditions, or transport pathways.

contiguous United States↗

A one‐dimensional model for turbulent mixing in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments

In this paper, we develop and validate a rigorous modeling framework, based on Duhamel's Theorem, for the unsteady one-dimensional vertical transport of a solute across a flat sediment-water interface (SWI) and through the benthic biolayer of a turbulent stream. The modeling framework is novel in capturing the two-way coupling between evolving solute concentrations above and below the SWI and in allowing for a depth-varying diffusivity. Three diffusivity profiles within the sediment (constant, exponentially decaying, and a hybrid model) are evaluated against an extensive set of previously published laboratory measurements of turbulent mass transfer across the SWI. The exponential diffusivity profile best represents experimental observations and its reference diffusivity scales with the permeability Reynolds number, a dimensionless measure of turbulence at the SWI. The depth over which turbulence-enhanced diffusivity decays is of the order of centimeters and comparable to the thickness of the benthic biolayer. Thus, turbulent mixing across the SWI may serve as a universal transport mechanism, supplying the nutrient and energy fluxes needed to sustain microbial growth, and nutrient processing, in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments.

Water Resources Research↗

Effective hydrological events in an evolving mid‐latitude mountain river system following cataclysmic disturbance—A saga of multiple influences

Cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens (USA) in 1980 reset 30 km of upper North Fork Toutle River (NFTR) valley to a zero‐state fluvial condition. Consequently, a new channel system evolved. Initially, a range of streamflows eroded channels (tens of meters incision, hundreds of meters widening) and transported immense sediment loads. Now, single, large‐magnitude or multiple moderate‐magnitude events are needed to accomplish substantial channel modification. Three large floods (two ≥100‐year events; one ∼10–25‐year event along lower Toutle River) from 1996 to 2015 indicate flood effectiveness in this environment is affected by both geomorphic and environmental factors. The largest and smallest of these floods (February 1996, November 2006) transported the most sediment by single floods since 1982; erosion and sediment transport by an ∼100‐year flood in December 2015 was not exceptional. Strong coupling between NFTR and its tall corridor banks, local geologic and hydraulic conditions promoting threshold erosion, event sequencing, and possibly a longitudinal gradient in stream power are important factors affecting event effectiveness on channel modification. In addition, environmental factors have also been influential, as variations in snowpack, storm trajectories and rainfall distributions, and episodic mobilization of debris flows have also influenced geomorphic response. Other factors such as vegetation anchoring, strong channel–hillside coupling, disparities between flood frequencies and perturbation relaxation times, and large variations in flood duration do not appear to be critical influences. Climate forecasts for warmer temperatures and a shift from snowfall to rainfall at high elevations may promote further acute geomorphic responses.

Water Resources Research↗

Operational Bayesian GLS regression for regional hydrologic analyses

This paper develops the quasi-analytic Bayesian analysis of the generalized least squares (GLS) (B-GLS) model introduced by Reis et al. (2005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003445 ) into an operational and statistically comprehensive GLS regional hydrologic regression methodology to estimate flood quantiles, regional shape parameters, low flows, and other statistics with spatially correlated flow records. New GLS regression diagnostic statistics include a Bayesian plausibility value, pseudo adjusted R 2 , pseudo analysis of variance table, and two diagnostic error variance ratios. Traditional leverage and influence are extended to identify rogue observations, address lack of fit, and support gauge network design and region-of-influence regression. Formulas are derived for the Bayesian computation of estimators, standard errors, and diagnostic statistics. The use of B-GLS and the new diagnostic statistics are illustrated with a regional log-space skew regression analysis for the Piedmont region in the Southeastern U.S. A comparison of ordinary, weighted, and GLS analyses documents the advantages of the Bayesian estimator over the method-of-moment estimator of model error variance introduced by Stedinger and Tasker (1985, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR021i009p01421 ). Of the three types of analyses, only GLS considers the covariance among concurrent flows. The example demonstrates that GLS regional skewness models can be highly accurate when correctly analyzed: The B-GLS average variance of prediction is 0.090 for South Carolina (92 stations), whereas a traditional ordinary least squares analysis published by the U.S. Geological Survey yielded 0.193 (Feaster & Tasker, 2002, https://doi.org/10.3133/wri024140 ). B-GLS provides a statistical valid framework for the rigorous analysis of spatially correlated hydrologic data, allowing for the estimation of parameters and their actual precision and computation of several diagnostic statistics, as well as correctly attributing variability to the three key sources: time sampling error, model error, and signal.

Water Resources Research↗

Nitrate in streams during winter low‐flow conditions as an indicator of legacy nitrate

Winter low‐flow (LF) conditions in streams provide a potential opportunity to evaluate the importance of legacy nitrate in catchments due to the dominance of slow‐flow transport pathways and lowered biotic activity. In this study, the concentration, flux, and trend of nitrate in streams during winter low‐flow conditions were analyzed at 320 sites in the conterminous United States. LF flow‐normalized nitrate concentrations varied from <0.1 to >20 mg‐N L ‐1 and LF conditions contributed between 2% and 98% of the winter nitrate flux. LF nitrate concentrations generally exceeded 2.5 mg‐N L ‐1 in the upper Midwest, with smaller regions of high LF nitrate concentrations in eastern Texas and along the northern mid‐Atlantic coast. Groundwater was inferred to be the primary or sole contributor of nitrate to streams during winter LF conditions at 140 of our 320 sites. Among these 140 sites, nitrate from groundwater comprised 45% or more of the winter nitrate flux at a quarter of the sites. Among the same 140 sites, concentrations of nitrate in streams during winter LF conditions generally increased between 2002 and 2012 at sites where 40% or more of the winter flux was from groundwater, suggesting that concentrations of nitrate in the contributing groundwater system were increasing. Using metrics developed herein, we characterize the potential importance of legacy nitrate at sites in this study and discuss methods to characterize sites with fewer samples than required by our models or at sites without continuous stream discharge measurements.

Water Resources Research↗

Hydrologic signals and surprises in U.S. streamflow records during urbanization

Urban development has been observed to lead to variable magnitudes of change for stormflow volume and directions of baseflow change across cities. This work examines temporal streamflow trends across the flow duration curve in 53 watersheds during periods of peak urban development, which ranged from 1939 to 2016. We used U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records combined with pre‐development and urbanization characteristics to identify 20 years for analysis in each urbanizing watershed. Each urbanizing gage was paired with a nearby reference gage representing climatic trends over the same time period. Results indicated that urbanization, as measured by housing density, did not homogeneously alter the flow duration curve. Urbanization led to widely variable trends in low flow, where half of the urbanizing gages had increasing flow at the 10th non‐exceedance percentile, and the other half had declining low flow. High flows generally increased in streams as the area urbanized. The largest increases in high flows were in streams in semi‐arid and arid areas. The largest urban flow changes had transformations in wastewater infrastructure, water supply infrastructure, and flood control facilities. Isolating flow changes due to urbanization from those of reference sites will serve to better identify and manage synergistic effects of urban development and climate change on flooding and water availability.

Water Resources Research↗

Estimating the effects of forest structure changes from wildfire on snow water resources under varying meteorological conditions

Modeling forest change effects on snow is critical to resource management. However, many models either do not appropriately model canopy structure or cannot represent fine‐scale changes in structure following a disturbance. We applied a 1 m 2 resolution energy budget snowpack model at a forested site in New Mexico, USA, affected by a wildfire, using input data from lidar to represent prefire and postfire canopy conditions. Both scenarios were forced with 37 years of equivalent meteorology to simulate the effect of fire‐mediated canopy change on snowpack under varying meteorology. Postfire, the simulated snow distribution was substantially altered, and despite an overall increase in snow, 32% of the field area displayed significant decreases, resulting in higher snowpack variability. The spatial differences in snow were correlated with the change in several direction‐based forest structure metrics (aspect‐based canopy edginess and gap area). Locations with decreases in snow following the fire were on southern aspects that transitioned to south facing canopy edges, canopy gaps that increased in size to the south, or where large trees were removed. Locations with largest increases in snow occurred where all canopy was removed. Changes in canopy density metrics, typically used in snow models to represent the forest, did not fully explain the effects of fire on snow distribution. This explains why many models are not able to represent greater postfire variability in snow distribution and tend to predict only increases in snowpack following a canopy disturbance event despite observational studies showing both increases and decreases.

New Mexico↗

Numerical analysis of the effect of subgrid variability in a physically based hydrological model on runoff, soil moisture, and slope stability

In coarse resolution hydrological modeling we face the problem of subgrid variability, the effects of which are difficult to express and are often hidden in the parameterization and calibration. We present a numerical experiment with the physically based hydrological model ParFlow‐CLM with which we quantify the effect of subgrid heterogeneities in headwater catchments within the cell size typically used for regional hydrological applications. We simulate homogeneous domains and domains with subgrid heterogeneities in topography or soil thickness for two climates and soil types. The presence of side slope is the main error source, leading to large underestimation of runoff, and marginally also of evapotranspiration. The spatial distribution of soil saturation in the presence of subgrid variability in topography also leads to underestimation of landslide risk. Soil thickness is the second influential subgrid property, affecting soil moisture distribution and surface runoff formation. Results are consistent for the climates and the soil types considered. The topographic wetness index approach is tested as a way to downscale soil moisture simulations within the domain. Although this method is successful in reproducing some spatial variability and patterns, it fails when the coarse grid mean soil saturation is inaccurate or subgrid topography does not represent subsurface flow paths accurately. We conclude that ignoring subgrid variability in topography and soil thickness in coarse‐scale hydrological models may lead locally to underestimation of runoff and slope instability. Users of such models should be aware of these biases and consider ways to include subgrid effects in coarse‐scale hydrological predictions.

Water Resources Research↗

Three-dimensional distribution of residence time metrics in the glaciated United States using metamodels trained on general numerical models

Residence time distribution (RTD) is a critically important characteristic of groundwater flow systems; however, it cannot be measured directly. RTD can be inferred from tracer data with analytical models (few parameters) or with numerical models (many parameters). The second approach permits more variation in system properties but is used less frequently than the first because large‐scale numerical models can be resource intensive. Using a novel automated approach, a set of 115 inexpensive general simulation models (GSMs) was used to create RTD metrics (fraction of young groundwater, defined as < 65 years old; mean travel time of young fraction; median travel time of old fraction; and mean path length). GSMs captured the general trends in measured tritium concentrations in 431 wells. Boosted Regression Tree metamodels were trained to predict these RTD metrics using available wall‐to‐wall hydrogeographic digital sets as explanatory features. The metamodels produced a three‐dimensional distribution of predictions throughout the glacial system that generally matched with the numerical model RTD metrics. In addition to the expected importance of aquifer thickness and recharge rate in predicting RTD metrics, two new data sets, Multi‐Order Hydrologic Position (MOHP) and hydrogeologic terrane were important predictors. These variables by themselves produced metamodels with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency close to the full metamodel. Metamodel predictions showed that the volume of young groundwater stored in the glaciated U.S. is about 6,000 km 3 , or about 0.5% of globally stored young groundwater.

Water Resources Research↗

Permafrost promotes shallow groundwater flow and warmer headwater streams

The presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from eleven headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7 % of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5 % moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

Alaska↗

Comparison of groundwater storage changes from GRACE satellites with monitoring and modeling of major U.S. aquifers

GRACE satellite data are widely used to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) changes in aquifers globally; however, comparisons with GW monitoring and modeling data are limited. Here we compared GWS changes from GRACE over 15 yr (2002–2017) in 14 major U.S. aquifers with groundwater-level (GWL) monitoring data in ~23,000 wells and with regional and global hydrologic and land surface models. Results show declining GWS trends from GRACE data in the six southwestern and south-central U.S. aquifers, totaling −90 km 3 over 15 yr, related to long-term (5–15 yr) droughts, and exceeding Lake Mead volume by ~2.5×. GWS trends in most remaining aquifers were stable or slightly rising. GRACE-derived GWS changes agree with GWL monitoring data in most aquifers (correlation coefficients, R = 0.52–0.95), showing that GRACE satellites capture groundwater (GW) dynamics. Regional GW models (eight models) generally show similar or greater GWS trends than those from GRACE. Large discrepancies in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer, with modeled GWS decline approximately four times that of GRACE, may reflect uncertainties in model storage parameters, stream capture, pumpage, and/or recharge rates. Global hydrologic models (2003–2014), which include GW pumping, generally overestimate GRACE GWS depletion (total: approximately −172 to −186 km 3 ) in heavily exploited aquifers in southwestern and south-central U.S. by ~2.4× (GRACE: −74 km 3 ), underscoring needed modeling improvements relative to anthropogenic impacts. Global land surface models tend to track GRACE GWS dynamics better than global hydrologic models. Intercomparing remote sensing, monitoring, and modeling data underscores the importance of considering all data sources to constrain GWS uncertainties.

Water Resources Research↗

Water temperature controls for regulated canyon-bound rivers

Many canyon‐bound rivers have been dammed and downstream flow and water temperatures modified. Climate change is expected to cause lower storage in reservoirs and warmer release temperatures, which may further alter downstream flow and thermal regimes. To anticipate potential future changes, we first need to understand the dominant heat transfer mechanisms in canyon‐bound river systems. Towards this end, we adapt a dynamic process‐based river routing and temperature model to account for complex shading and radiation characteristics found in canyon‐bound rivers. We apply the model to a 362 km segment of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, USA to simulate temperature over an 18‐year period. Extensive temperature and flow datasets from within the canyon were used to assess model performance. At the most downstream gaging location, root mean square errors of hourly flow routing and temperature predictions were 11.5 m 3 /s and 0.93 °C, respectively. We found that heat fluxes controlling temperatures were highly variable over space and time, primarily due to shortwave radiation dynamics and hydropeaking flow conditions. Additionally, the large differences between air and water temperature during summer periods resulted in high sensible and latent heat fluxes. Sensitivity analyses indicate that reservoir release temperatures are most influential above the RM88 gage (141 kilometers below Glen Canyon Dam), while a combination of discharge, shortwave radiation, and air temperature become more important farther downstream. This study illustrates the importance of understanding the spatial and temporal variability of topographic shading when predicting water temperatures in canyon‐bound rivers.

Colorado↗

Spatio-temporal analysis of hypoxia in the Central Basin of Lake Erie of North America

We develop a spatio-temporal geostatistical interpolation framework to estimate hypoxia extent (dissolved oxygen [DO] concentrations below 2 mg/L) with data from a network of DO loggers. The framework uses empirical orthogonal functions and Bayesian kriging to identify the spatially varying temporal pattern and estimate the distribution of hypoxia, including estimation uncertainty. A prototype web application is also developed in R. The framework is applied to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics of DO in the central basin of Lake Erie in North America using data sampled from a logger network placed on the lake bottom during the summers of 2014, 2015, and 2016. Cross-validation results demonstrate that the framework is capable of capturing the dynamic nature of bottom hypoxia over offshore areas, but nearshore areas have poor interpolation performance due to the impacts of complex physical processes such as seiche events. The findings showed that in the central basin, hypoxia started to emerge in early August of 2014, while in 2015 and 2016 hypoxia began in July. The peak hypoxia extent occurred in late September 2014, mid-August 2015, and early September 2016. The prediction error of the overall spatial extent of hypoxia was as large as 25% of the interpolation area based on current logger deployment. Based on the cross-validation and interpolation error, we suggest placing more loggers in nearshore areas to reduce prediction error near the margins of the hypoxic zone.

central Lake Erie↗

Using heat to trace vertical water fluxes in sediment experiencing concurrent tidal pumping and groundwater discharge

Heat has been widely applied to trace groundwater‐surface water exchanges in inland environments, but it is infrequently applied in coastal sediment where head oscillations induce periodicity in water flux magnitude/direction and heat advection. This complicates interpretation of temperatures to estimate water fluxes. We investigate the convolution of thermal and hydraulic signals to assess the viability of using heat as a tracer in environments with tidal head oscillations superimposed on submarine groundwater discharge. We first generate sediment temperature and head time series for conditions ranging from no tide to mega‐tidal using a numerical model (SUTRA) forced with periodic temperature and tidal head signals. We then analyze these synthetic temperature time series using heat tracing software (VFLUX2 and 1DTempPro) to evaluate if conventional terrestrial approaches to infer fluxes from temperatures are applicable for coastal settings. We consider high‐frequency water flux variability within a tidal signal and averaged over tidal signals. Results show that VFLUX2 analytical methods reasonably estimated the mean discharge fluxes in most cases but could not reproduce the flux variability within tidal cycles. The model results further reveal that high‐frequency time series of water fluxes varying in magnitude and direction can be accurately estimated if paired temperature and hydraulic head are analyzed using numerical models (e.g. 1DTempPro) that consider both dynamic hydraulic gradients and thermal signals. These results point to the opportunity to incorporate pressure sensors within heat tracing instrumentation to better assess sub‐daily flux oscillations and associated reactive processes.

Water Resources Research↗

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗

Unifying advective and diffusive descriptions of bedform pumping in the benthic biolayer of streams

Many water quality and ecosystem functions performed by streams occur in the benthic biolayer, the biologically active upper (~5 cm) layer of the streambed. Solute transport through the benthic biolayer is facilitated by bedform pumping, a physical process in which dynamic and static pressure variations over the surface of stationary bedforms (e.g., ripples and dunes) drive flow across the sediment-water interface. In this paper we derive two predictive modeling frameworks, one advective and the other diffusive, for solute transport through the benthic biolayer by bedform pumping. Both frameworks closely reproduce patterns and rates of bedform pumping previously measured in the laboratory, provided that the diffusion model's dispersion coefficient declines exponentially with depth. They are also functionally equivalent, such that parameter sets inferred from the 2D advective model can be applied to the 1D diffusive model, and vice versa. The functional equivalence and complementary strengths of these two models expand the range of questions that can be answered, for example, by adopting the 2D advective model to study the effects of geomorphic processes (such as bedform adjustments to land use change) on flow-dependent processes and the 1D diffusive model to study problems where multiple transport mechanisms combine (such as bedform pumping and turbulent diffusion). By unifying 2D advective and 1D diffusive descriptions of bedform pumping, our analytical results provide a straightforward and computationally efficient approach for predicting, and better understanding, solute transport in the benthic biolayer of streams and coastal sediments.

Water Resources Research↗

Characterizing physical properties of streambed interface sediments using in situ complex electrical conductivity measurements

Streambed sediment physical properties such as surface area, are difficult to quantify in situ but exert a high‐level control on a wide range of biogeochemical processes and sorption of contaminants. We introduce the use of complex electrical conductivity (CC) methods (also known as spectral induced polarization (SIP)) that measure both real and imaginary conductivity to non‐invasively and efficiently characterize shallow streambed sediments. We explore the method through synthetic modeling, laboratory, and field measurements to demonstrate the sensitivity of imaginary conductivity to sediment surface area, controlled in part by fine‐grained iron oxides produced by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory measurements verify expected relationships between CC parameters and sediment properties. Synthetic modeling using a 1D analytical model illustrates the influence of water layer depth and conductivity on the field CC measurements made at the streambed‐stream water interface. Specifically, the inverted sediment imaginary conductivity is less impacted by uncertainty in the water layer depth and conductivity relative to the real conductivity and phase shift. Field CC measurements along a landfill‐impacted river reveal discrete streambed zones with enhanced bulk surface area generally corresponding to anoxic groundwater discharges zones with high concentrations of fine‐grained iron oxide precipitates.

Water Resources Research↗