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USGS2021

Piscine predation on juvenile salmon in sub-arctic Alaskan rivers: Associations with season, habitat, predator size and streamflow

Predation on anadromous salmon can have important consequences for both predators and prey. Salmon provide large seasonal pulses of energy and nutrients via carcasses, eggs and juveniles to many freshwater consumers, and conversely, predation can represent a significant source of mortality for juvenile salmon. Recent declines of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) populations in Alaska have raised concern that predation might inhibit their recovery. Here, we quantify patterns of predation by freshwater fishes on juvenile salmon across seasons, habitats, predator sizes and streamflow levels in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Alaska. We analysed piscivore stomach contents and identified prey using DNA sequence “barcoding.” In coastal rivers, juvenile pink ( O . gorbuscha ) and chum ( O . keta ) salmon contributed heavily to Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) and Dolly Varden char ( Salvelinus malma ) diets, coho salmon ( O . kisutch ) prey were rare, and Chinook salmon were not detected. In interior rivers, Arctic grayling, burbot ( Lota lota ) and northern pike ( Esox lucius ) consumed small numbers of Chinook salmon. Predation on Chinook salmon was documented disproportionately in sloughs during a summer of exceptionally high streamflow. Dietary and distributional patterns suggested northern pike and burbot may exclude salmon from sloughs in low-gradient river reaches that would otherwise provide suitable rearing habitat. The data also provided tentative support for the hypothesis that high streamflow induces juvenile Chinook salmon to move from mainstem habitats into sloughs, where they face an increased risk of mortality. Incorporating predation risk into climate adaptation, fisheries management and habitat restoration decisions may help to facilitate Chinook salmon recovery.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Making ecological models adequate

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2020

A century of intermittent eco‐evolutionary feedbacks resulted in novel trait combinations in invasive Great Lakes alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus)

Species introductions provide opportunities to quantify rates and patterns of evolutionary change in response to novel environments. Alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) are native to the East Coast of North America where they ascend coastal rivers to spawn in lakes and then return to the ocean. Some populations have become landlocked within the last 350 years and diverged phenotypically from their ancestral marine population. More recently, alewives were introduced to the Laurentian Great Lakes (~150 years ago), but these populations have not been compared to East Coast anadromous and landlocked populations. We quantified 95 years of evolution in foraging traits and overall body shape of Great Lakes alewives and compared patterns of phenotypic evolution of Great Lakes alewives to East Coast anadromous and landlocked populations. Our results suggest that gill raker spacing in Great Lakes alewives has evolved in a dynamic pattern that is consistent with responses to strong but intermittent eco‐evolutionary feedbacks with zooplankton size. Following their initial colonization of Lakes Ontario and Michigan, dense alewife populations likely depleted large‐bodied zooplankton, which drove a decrease in alewife gill raker spacing. However, the introduction of large, non‐native zooplankton to the Great Lakes in later decades resulted in an increase in gill raker spacing, and present‐day Great Lakes alewives have gill raker spacing patterns that are similar to the ancestral East Coast anadromous population. Conversely, contemporary Great Lakes alewife populations possess a gape width consistent with East Coast landlocked populations. Body shape showed remarkable parallel evolution with East Coast landlocked populations, likely due to a shared response to the loss of long‐distance movement or migrations. Our results suggest the colonization of a new environment and cessation of migration can result in rapid parallel evolution in some traits, but contingency also plays a role, and a dynamic ecosystem can also yield novel trait combinations.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2017

Defining a Safe Operating Space for inland recreational fisheries

The Safe Operating Space (SOS) of a recreational fishery is the multidimensional region defined by levels of harvest, angler effort, habitat, predation and other factors in which the fishery is sustainable into the future. SOS boundaries exhibit trade-offs such that decreases in harvest can compensate to some degree for losses of habitat, increases in predation and increasing value of fishing time to anglers. Conversely, high levels of harvest can be sustained if habitat is intact, predation is low, and value of fishing effort is moderate. The SOS approach recognizes limits in several dimensions: at overly high levels of harvest, habitat loss, predation, or value of fishing effort, the stock falls to a low equilibrium biomass. Recreational fisheries managers can influence harvest and perhaps predation, but they must cope with trends that are beyond their control such as changes in climate, loss of aquatic habitat or social factors that affect the value of fishing effort for anglers. The SOS illustrates opportunities to manage harvest or predation to maintain quality fisheries in the presence of trends in climate, social preferences or other factors that are not manageable.

Fish and Fisheries↗

USGS2018

Capture versus tagging impacts on chum salmon freshwater spawning migration travel times

The spawning migration travel times of chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta (Walbaum), fitted with gastrically implanted radio tags vs external spaghetti tags were tested for a short [≈60 river km (rkm)] and long migration route (≈730 rkm) on the Koyukuk River, Alaska, USA. Using a novel application of statistical arrival curve models to infer travel times for uncaptured fish, migrations by chum salmon not directly handled during the study were also assessed. Results demonstrated negligible differences in travel times within migration routes between fish fitted only with spaghetti tags and fish fitted with radio tags, indicating low impacts on migration travel behaviour associated with gastric tags once deployed. Conversely, travel times for unhandled fish as inferred by statistical arrival models may have been 12%–24% shorter than those for fish captured with gillnets for tagging. These results suggest that, if present, chum salmon migration behaviour impacts may be more strongly associated with fish capture than tag deployment.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗

USGS2013

Comparing two fish sampling standards over time: largely congruent results but with caveats

1. We sampled Lake Bourget (surface area = 44 km 2 ) using CEN standard gillnet and provisional standard acoustic survey methods over 3 years (2005, 2010 and 2011) as the fish community responded to re-oligotrophication. A total of 16 species were caught in benthic gillnets and three species in pelagic gillnets. 2. Lake Bourget results were consistent with a recent study (Emmrich et al., Freshwater Biology , 57, 2012, 2436) showing strong correspondence between average biomass-per-unit-effort (BPUE) in standard benthic gillnets and average acoustic volume backscattering when smaller lakes (0.25–5.45 km 2 ) were treated as sample units. 3. The BPUE of whitefish ( Coregonus lavaretus ), perch ( Perca fluviatilis ) and roach ( Rutilus rutilus ) measured by benthic gillnets all declined significantly with increasing bathymetric depth; 93% of nets set at depths >50 m caught zero fish. 4. Pelagic gillnetting indicated that small (<10 cm) perch and small (<12.5 cm) roach occupied the upper pelagic habitat (0–20 m depths) and that whitefish were predominant in deeper pelagic habitat. The acoustic sampling showed fish biomass in the upper pelagic habitat varied significantly by year. Biomass there was highest in 2010 when a strong perch year-class recruited and lowest in 2011 when recruitment levels of perch and roach were both weak. Whitefish biomass in deep pelagic habitat (>20 m) increased significantly after 2005. 5. Both surveys showed whitefish biomass increased significantly during the study, but whitefish ≥25 cm were poorly represented in benthic gillnet catches. Contrary to the acoustic findings, the BPUE of perch and roach in benthic gillnets did not vary significantly over time. This metric is insensitive to changes in size structure in that a high catch of small fish and a low catch of large fish in different years can provide similar average BPUE estimates. 6. We examined correlations between BPUE in benthic gillnets and acoustic methods at fine spatial scales by averaging acoustic backscattering measurements encompassed by buffers of varying size (250–2000 m) around individual gillnets and by averaging samples collected from lake quadrants. Correlations at fines scales were generally poor, and only in 1 year was the quadrant correlation significant. The lack of correlation can be explained, in part, by the two gears sampling different components of the fish community. Conversely, in pelagic habitat, where the fish community was simpler, we found BPUE in pelagic nets to be strongly correlated with acoustic backscattering. 7. With respect to large lakes like Lake Bourget, we hypothesise that the congruence in average biomass measurements provided by these two survey methods occurs because these different community components are responding similarly to a common driver like lake trophic status (or possibly multiple drivers operating in synergy).

Lake Bourget↗

USGS2024

Fish size structures in lakes of the Lower Mississippi River floodplain

The Lower Mississippi River has a floodplain that includes >1350 perennial lakes carved by shifts in river courses and other hydro-fluvial processes over eons. Notwithstanding their similar provenances, these waterbodies exhibit an immense variety of morphologies and successional stages that illustrate their natural trajectory from aquatic to forested wetlands. A result of this geographical, morphological and temporal diversity is dynamic and varied fish communities. We examined how size structures of fish communities in these floodplain lakes were associated with key in-lake and off-lake environmental drivers. Fish lengths were collected with standardised procedures in a sample of 30 of these lakes to construct a lake-by-length group matrix. Likewise, in-lake and off-lake environmental descriptors were collected to construct a lake-by-covariate matrix. Distance-based linear models were used to assess associations between fish size structure and environmental descriptors. Smaller fish were typically associated with increasing levels of turbidity, chlorophyll- a , phycocyanin and surrounding agriculture. Shallow, hypereutrophic floodplain lakes associated with agricultural landscapes and reduced connectivity experience harsh physicochemical environments. These conditions appeared to hinder the formation of sustained fish communities but may confer a survival advantage to juveniles or small short-lived species. Conversely, larger fish were associated with increasing lake depth, water clarity, connectivity, and extent of surrounding forests-wetlands. Enhanced stability and size structure were observed in communities residing in deeper and clearer lakes, suggesting that these conditions facilitated the development of longer-lived species spanning multiple age groups. The enhanced connectivity that facilitated this increased stability also permitted the presence of larger itinerant species. Size-structure assessments can serve as a valuable ecological and biodiversity indicator in floodplain lakes. Size-structure assessments could supplement and, depending on objectives, even supplant conventional taxonomic analyses, and enhance surveillance of this vast and important natural resource.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗

USGS2012

Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH 4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH 4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH 4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH 4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH 4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH 4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2014

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Projected shifts in ﬁsh species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (F CH 4 ), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season F CH 4 , GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, F CH 4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher F CH 4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on F CH 4 , but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on F CH 4 . Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

Abundant carbon substrates drive extremely high sulfate reduction rates and methane fluxes in Prairie Pothole Wetlands

Inland waters are increasingly recognized as critical sites of methane emissions to the atmosphere, but the biogeochemical reactions driving such fluxes are less well understood. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is one of the largest wetland complexes in the world, containing millions of small, shallow wetlands. The sediment pore waters of PPR wetlands contain some of the highest concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulfur species ever recorded in terrestrial aquatic environments. Using a suite of geochemical and microbiological analyses, we measured the impact of sedimentary carbon and sulfur transformations in these wetlands on methane fluxes to the atmosphere. This research represents the first study of coupled geochemistry and microbiology within the PPR and demonstrates how the conversion of abundant labile DOC pools into methane results in some of the highest fluxes of this greenhouse gas to the atmosphere ever reported. Abundant DOC and sulfate additionally supported some of the highest sulfate reduction rates ever measured in terrestrial aquatic environments, which we infer to account for a large fraction of carbon mineralization in this system. Methane accumulations in zones of active sulfate reduction may be due to either the transport of free methane gas from deeper locations or the co-occurrence of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction. If both respiratory processes are concurrent, any competitive inhibition of methanogenesis by sulfate-reducing bacteria may be lessened by the presence of large labile DOC pools that yield noncompetitive substrates such as methanol. Our results reveal some of the underlying mechanisms that make PPR wetlands biogeochemical hotspots, which ultimately leads to their critical, but poorly recognized role in regional greenhouse gas emissions.

North Dakota↗

USGS2018

Delayed herbivory by migratory geese increases summer‐long CO2 uptake in coastal western Alaska

The advancement of spring and the differential ability of organisms to respond to changes in plant phenology may lead to ‘phenological mismatches’ as a result of climate change. One potential for considerable mismatch is between migratory birds and food availability in northern breeding ranges and these mismatches may have consequences for ecosystem function. We conducted a three‐year experiment to examine the consequences for CO 2 exchange of advanced spring green‐up and altered timing of grazing by migratory Pacific black brant in a coastal wetland in western Alaska. Experimental treatments represent the variation in green‐up and timing of peak grazing intensity that currently exists in the system. Delayed grazing resulted in greater net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) while early grazing reduced CO 2 uptake with the potential of causing net ecosystem carbon (C) loss in late spring and early summer. Conversely, advancing the growing season only influenced ecosystem respiration (ER), resulting in a small increase in ER with no concomitant impact on GPP or NEE. The experimental treatment that represents the most likely future, with green‐up advancing more rapidly than arrival of migratory geese, results in NEE changing by 1.2 μmol m −2 s −1 toward a greater CO 2 sink in spring and summer. Increased sink strength, however, may be mitigated by early arrival of migratory geese, which would reduce CO 2 uptake. Importantly, while the direct effect of climate warming on phenology of green‐up has a minimal influence on NEE, the indirect effect of climate warming manifest through changes in the timing of peak grazing can have a significant impact on C balance in northern coastal wetlands. Furthermore, processes influencing the timing of goose migration in the winter range can significantly influence ecosystem function in summer habitats.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape‐scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change‐induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States

Production of woody biomass for bioenergy, whether wood pellets or liquid biofuels, has the potential to cause substantial landscape change and concomitant effects on forest ecosystems, but the landscape effects of alternative production scenarios have not been fully assessed. We simulated landscape change from 2010 to 2050 under five scenarios of woody biomass production for wood pellets and liquid biofuels in North Carolina, in the southeastern United States, a region that is a substantial producer of wood biomass for bioenergy and contains high biodiversity. Modeled scenarios varied biomass feedstocks, incorporating harvest of ‘conventional’ forests, which include naturally regenerating as well as planted forests that exist on the landscape even without bioenergy production, as well as purpose-grown woody crops grown on marginal lands. Results reveal trade-offs among scenarios in terms of overall forest area and the characteristics of the remaining forest in 2050. Meeting demand for biomass from conventional forests resulted in more total forest land compared with a baseline, business-as-usual scenario. However, the remaining forest was composed of more intensively managed forest and less of the bottomland hardwood and longleaf pine habitats that support biodiversity. Converting marginal forest to purpose-grown crops reduced forest area, but the remaining forest contained more of the critical habitats for biodiversity. Conversion of marginal agricultural lands to purpose-grown crops resulted in smaller differences from the baseline scenario in terms of forest area and the characteristics of remaining forest habitats. Each scenario affected the dominant type of land-use change in some regions, especially in the coastal plain that harbors high levels of biodiversity. Our results demonstrate the complex landscape effects of alternative bioenergy scenarios, highlight that the regions most likely to be affected by bioenergy production are also critical for biodiversity, and point to the challenges associated with evaluating bioenergy sustainability.

GCB Bioenergy↗

USGS2017

Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants

Aim The distributions of exotic species reflect patterns of human-mediated dispersal, species climatic tolerances and a suite of other biotic and abiotic factors. The relative importance of each of these factors will shape how the spread of exotic species is affected by ongoing economic globalization and climate change. However, patterns of trade may be correlated with variation in scientific sampling effort globally, potentially confounding studies that do not account for sampling patterns. Location Global. Time period Museum records, generally from the 1800s up to 2015. Major taxa studied Plant species exotic to the United States. Methods We used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to summarize the number of plant species with exotic occurrences in the United States that also occur in each other country world-wide. We assessed the relative importance of trade and climatic similarity for explaining variation in the number of shared species while evaluating several methods to account for variation in sampling effort among countries. Results Accounting for variation in sampling effort reversed the relative importance of trade and climate for explaining numbers of shared species. Trade was strongly correlated with numbers of shared U.S. exotic plants between the United States and other countries before, but not after, accounting for sampling variation among countries. Conversely, accounting for sampling effort strengthened the relationship between climatic similarity and species sharing. Using the number of records as a measure of sampling effort provided a straightforward approach for the analysis of occurrence data, whereas species richness estimators and rarefaction were less effective at removing sampling bias. Main conclusions Our work provides support for broad-scale climatic limitation on the distributions of exotic species, illustrates the need to account for variation in sampling effort in large biodiversity databases, and highlights the difficulty in inferring causal links between the economic drivers of invasion and global patterns of exotic species occurrence.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS2020

Machine learning predictions of pH in the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern USA

A boosted regression tree model was developed to predict pH conditions in three dimensions throughout the glacial aquifer system of the contiguous United States using pH measurements in samples from 18,386 wells and predictor variables that represent aspects of the hydrogeologic setting. Model results indicate that the carbonate content of soils and aquifer materials strongly controls pH and, when coupled with long flowpaths, results in the most alkaline conditions. Conversely, in areas where glacial sediments are thin and carbonate‐poor, pH conditions remain acidic. At depths typical of drinking‐water supplies, predicted pH >7.5—which is associated with arsenic mobilization—occurs more frequently than predicted pH <6—which is associated with water corrosivity and the mobilization of other trace elements. A novel aspect of this model was the inclusion of numerically based estimates of groundwater flow characteristics (age and flowpath length) as predictor variables. The sensitivity of pH predictions to these variables was consistent with hydrologic understanding of groundwater flow systems and the geochemical evolution of groundwater quality. The model was not developed to provide precise estimates of pH at any given location. Rather, it can be used to more generally identify areas where contaminants may be mobilized into groundwater and where corrosivity issues may be of concern to prioritize areas for future groundwater monitoring.

Groundwater↗