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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Formulating the American Geophysical Union's Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics Policy: Challenges and lessons learned

Creating an ethics policy for a large, diverse geosciences organization is a challenge, especially in the midst of the current contentious dialogue in the media related to such issues as climate change, sustaining natural resources, and responding to natural hazards. In 2011, the American Geophysical Union (AGU) took on this challenge, creating an Ethics Task Force to update their ethics policies to better support their new Strategic Plan and respond to the changing scientific research environment. Dialogue with AGU members and others during the course of creating the new policy unveiled some of the following issues to be addressed. Scientific results and individual scientists are coming under intense political and public scrutiny, with the efficacy of the science being questioned. In some cases, scientists are asked to take sides and/or provide opinions on issues beyond their research, impacting their objectivity. Pressure related to competition for funding and the need to publish high quality and quantities of papers has led to recent high-profile plagiarism, data fabrication, and conflict of interest cases. The complexities of a continuously advancing digital environment for conducting, reviewing, and publishing science has raised concerns over the ease of plagiarism, fabrication, falsification, inappropriate peer review, and the need for better accessibility of data and methods. Finally, students and scientists need consistent education and encouragement on the importance of ethics and integrity in scientific research. The new AGU Scientific Integrity and Ethics Policy tries to address these issues and provides an inspirational code of conduct to encourage a responsible, positive, open, honest scientific research environment.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Population dynamics of reintroduced Whooping Cranes

Because of the small size and restricted range of the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population, reintroduction is a prominent element of the recovery effort to ensure persistence of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ). A fundamental objective of all Whooping Crane reintroduction efforts is the establishment of a self-sustaining population. Therefore, success of reintroduction efforts will ultimately be determined by demography: births and deaths of Whooping Cranes in the released population. We present a detailed review of the demographic modeling efforts for two reintroduced populations of Whooping Cranes: the Florida Nonmigratory Population and the Eastern Migratory Population. Both of these populations have struggled with poor demographic performance, and the Florida Nonmigratory Population is now nearly extirpated. The focus of our review is on the models used to represent Whooping Crane population dynamics and the major uncertainties that still exist about population dynamics in reintroduced Whooping Cranes. We also discuss the centrality of population models to the management of reintroduced Whooping Cranes, and the use of decision analysis to navigate multiple-objective decisions made under uncertainty. Development of demographic models, and articulation and testing of hypotheses about the causes of poor demographic performance in reintroduced populations, will continue to be research areas of importance in support of Whooping Crane reintroduction.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Reproductive failure in the Eastern Migratory Population: The interaction of research and management

The reintroduction of the Eastern Migratory Population of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) has shown the most promise of any effort to date toward the establishment of a self-sustaining population. However, reproduction – including both nest success and chick survival – has been a major challenge. Here, we review the research and management efforts deployed to identify and address this challenge. While there is evidence that a proximal cause of nest failure is harassment by blood-feeding black flies ( Simulium spp. ), this is not likely to be the only contributing factor, and we present alternative hypotheses. There is less understanding of the causes of poor chick survival, and we present hypotheses for factors that may be contributing to chick mortality, including environmental, genetic, and behavioral factors. For both nest success and chick survival, we carried out a value of information analysis, using expert judgment, which allowed us to prioritize the alternative hypotheses for evaluation based on the expected management benefit of addressing each hypothesis. On the horizon are multiple opportunities to explore hypotheses about environmental factors as well as genetic and behavioral characteristics of the birds themselves that may contribute to poor reproduction. If bird-specific characteristics, such as genetics or rearing methods, are hindering reproduction, this has important implications for all efforts to restore Whooping Crane populations.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Progress and lessons learned from water-quality monitoring networks

Stream-quality monitoring networks in the United States were initiated and expanded after passage of successive federal water-pollution control laws from 1948 to 1972. The first networks addressed information gaps on the extent and severity of stream pollution and served as early warning systems for spills. From 1965 to 1972, monitoring networks expanded to evaluate compliance with stream standards, track emerging issues, and assess water-quality status and trends. After 1972, concerns arose regarding the ability of monitoring networks to determine if water quality was getting better or worse and why. As a result, monitoring networks adopted a hydrologic systems approach targeted to key water-quality issues, accounted for human and natural factors affecting water quality, innovated new statistical methods, and introduced geographic information systems and models that predict water quality at unmeasured locations. Despite improvements, national-scale monitoring networks have declined over time. Only about 1%, or 217, of more than 36,000 US Geological Survey monitoring sites sampled from 1975 to 2014 have been operated throughout the four decades since passage of the 1972 Clean Water Act. Efforts to sustain monitoring networks are important because these networks have collected information crucial to the description of water-quality trends over time and are providing information against which to evaluate future trends.

Chemistry and Water↗

USGS2022

Societal values of inland fishes

a. Aim: To demonstrate the societal values of inland fishes through nine services provided by inland fishes. Each service is defined, key stakeholders identified, and threats enumerated. Diverse case studies (geography, taxonomy, fishery-type) provide examples to highlight the societal values around the world. b. Main concepts: Nine societal services of inland fishes – 1. Livelihoods and subsistence income; 2. Commercial income; 3. Food and nutrition; 4. Recreational services; 5. Cultural services; 6. Educational and scientific opportunities within fisheries; 7. Biodiversity and ecosystem function; 8. Regulation and indicator of freshwater quality ; and 9. Regulation of freshwater quantity and natural flow regimes. c. Conclusion/outlook: Inland fishes have immense social, economic, and ecological importance. Freshwater ecosystems face a diverse array of pressures that threaten the fulfillment of societal services. Addressing key knowledge gaps can assist with sustainable management and conservation of these important resources.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

Water quality status and trends in the United States

Information about water quality is vital to ensure long-term availability and sustainability of water that is safe for drinking and recreation and suitable for industry, irrigation, fish, and wildlife. Protecting and enhancing water quality is a national priority, requiring information on water-quality status and trends, progress toward clean water standards, continuing problems, and emerging challenges. In this brief review, we discuss U.S. Geological Survey assessments of nutrient pollution, pesticides, mixtures of organic wastewater compounds (known as emerging contaminants), sediment-bound contaminants (like lead and DDT), and mercury, among other contaminants. Additionally, aspects of land use and current and emerging challenges associated with climate change are presented. Climate change must be considered, as water managers continue their efforts to maintain sufficient water of good quality for humans and for the ecosystem.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Runoff response to directional land cover change across reference basins in the conterminous United States

Land cover change plays a critical role in influencing hydrological responses. Change in land cover has impacted runoff across basins with substantial human interference; however, the impacts in basins with minimal human interference have been studied less. In this study, we investigated the impacts of directional land cover changes (forest to/from combined grassland and shrubland) in runoff coefficient (RC; ratio of runoff to precipitation) and runoff volume across 603 low human interference reference basins in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The results indicate basins with significant ( p <0.05) increasing trends in runoff and RC were across the northeast and northwest regions of CONUS, and basins with decreasing trends were in the southern CONUS region. A unit percent increase in basin area from grassland and shrubland to forest was associated with a ∼4% decrease in RC across basins with decreasing RC trends. Similarly, a unit percent increase in basin area from forest to a combined grassland and shrubland was associated with a ∼1% increase in RC across increasing RC trend basins. Runoff volume was decreased (increased) by ∼25 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 (∼9 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 ) across basins with decreasing (increasing) trends in runoff and RC. When relating runoff volume with the area of directional land cover changes, each 1 km 2 increase in area from grassland and shrubland to forest resulted in a decrease of ∼530,000 m 3 runoff volume across basins with decreasing trends. In contrast, each 1 km 2 increase in area from forest to grassland and shrubland increased runoff volume by ∼200,000 m 3 across increasing trend basins. Basins in the southern region of CONUS were more impacted by runoff parameters (RC and runoff volume) from directional land cover changes than basins in the northern region. The findings of this study are useful for planning and managing water availability for sustainable and adaptive water resources management at regional scales.

Advances in Water Resources↗

USGS2013

Spatial and temporal patterns of dust emissions (2004-2012) in semi-arid landscapes, southeastern Utah, USA

Aeolian dust can influence nutrient availability, soil fertility, plant interactions, and water-holding capacity in both source and downwind environments. A network of 85 passive collectors for aeolian sediment spanning numerous plant communities, soil types, and land-use histories covering approximately 4000 square kilometers across southeastern Utah was used to sample horizontal emissions of aeolian sediment. The sample archive dates to 2004 and is currently the largest known record of field-scale dust emissions for the southwestern United States. Sediment flux peaked during the spring months in all plant communities (mean: 38.1 g m −2 d −1 ), related to higher, sustained wind speeds that begin in the early spring. Dust flux was lowest during the winter period (mean: 5 g m−2 d−1) when surface wind speeds are typically low. Sites dominated by blackbrush and sagebrush shrubs had higher sediment flux (mean: 19.4 g m−2 d−1) compared to grasslands (mean: 11.2 g m−2 d−1), saltbush shrublands (mean: 10.3 g m −2 d −1 ), and woodlands (mean: 8.1 g m −2 d −1 ). Contrary to other studies on dust emissions, antecedent precipitation during one, two, and three seasons prior to sample collection did not significantly influence emission rates. Physical site-scale factors controlling dust emissions were complex and varied from one vegetation type to another.

Utah↗

USGS2009

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha −1 year −1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha −1 year −1 . To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS2012

Shade-grown coffee in Puerto Rico: Opportunities to preserve biodiversity while reinvigorating a struggling agricultural commodity

Shade-grown coffee contributes to biodiversity conservation and has many ecological benefits. We reviewed historical trends in coffee production and interviewed 100 coffee growers in 1999 to determine current management practices and attitudes toward the cultivation of sun and shade coffee in Puerto Rico. We discuss the outlook for the coffee industry in the 21st century and implications for biodiversity conservation, hoping lessons from Puerto Rico will apply to the international coffee industry. Throughout the 20th century, government intervention, including subsidies and technical assistance, supported coffee farming in Puerto Rico. In an effort to modernize coffee production and increase yields, the conversion from shade to sun coffee plantations was encouraged. Despite government support, the amount of land devoted to this once dominant agricultural commodity declined markedly between 1982 and 2007 (84%), due to labor shortages, low income, and catastrophic hurricanes. We found that a return to shaded plantations would be embraced by most farmers. Growers of shaded coffee were generally happier with their cultivation practices (89.3% satisfied) than growers of sun coffee (60.9% satisfied), valued biodiversity, and were willing to cultivate coffee under shade if given similar incentives to those received for farming sun coffee. The future of the coffee industry in Puerto Rico may depend on government programs that capitalize upon emerging markets for sustainably produced, shade-grown coffee. We conclude that where governments have close ties to the coffee industry, they should strive to wed economic development with the conservation of biodiversity and associated ecological services by providing support and incentives for the production of shade coffee.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2016

Land use in the Northern Great Plains region of the U.S. influences the survival and productivity of honey bee colonies

The Northern Great Plains region of the US annually hosts a large portion of commercially managed U.S. honey bee colonies each summer. Changing land use patterns over the last several decades have contributed to declines in the availability of bee forage across the region, and the future sustainability of the region to support honey bee colonies is unclear. We examined the influence of varying land use on the survivorship and productivity of honey bee colonies located in six apiaries within the Northern Great Plains state of North Dakota, an area of intensive agriculture and high density of beekeeping operations. Land use surrounding the apiaries was quantified over three years, 2010–2012, and survival and productivity of honey bee colonies were determined in response to the amount of bee forage land within a 3.2-km radius of each apiary. The area of uncultivated forage land (including pasture, USDA conservation program fields, fallow land, flowering woody plants, grassland, hay land, and roadside ditches) exerted a positive impact on annual apiary survival and honey production. Taxonomic diversity of bee-collected pollen and pesticide residues contained therein varied seasonally among apiaries, but overall were not correlated to large-scale land use patterns or survival and honey production. The predominant flowering plants utilized by honey bee colonies for pollen were volunteer species present in unmanaged (for honey bees), and often ephemeral, lands; thus placing honey bee colonies in a precarious situation for acquiring forage and nutrients over the entire growing season. We discuss the implications for land management, conservation, and beekeeper site selection in the Northern Great Plains to adequately support honey bee colonies and insure long term security for pollinator-dependent crops across the entire country.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS2021

The influence of floral resources and microclimate on pollinator visitation in an agro-ecosystem

As agriculture expands to meet the needs of a growing global population, natural ecosystems are threatened by deforestation and habitat fragmentation. Tropical agroforestry systems offer a sustainable alternative to traditional agriculture by providing food for production while also supporting biodiversity and ecosystem services. Previous studies have shown that these systems may even improve crop pollination, but the mechanisms of how these improvements occur are still poorly understood. Using coffee as a focal crop, we explored how microclimatic conditions affected nectar traits (sugar and caffeine concentration) important for pollinator visitation. We also studied how microclimate, floral traits, floral availability at the coffee plant level, availability of floral resources provided by other plant species in the agroecosystem (neighborhood floral availability), and the presence of other bees affected the amount of time bees spent foraging on coffee flowers and the proportion of coffee pollen carried on their bodies. We explored these factors using the two dominant coffee species farmed on Puerto Rico, Coffea canephora and C. arabica , under sun and shade management. We found that high nectar sugar concentration and temperature were important predictors of short floral visits (<15 seconds), while increased number of bees and open coffee flowers were important predictors of longer floral visits (16-180 seconds). High nectar caffeine concentration was an important predictor of longer visits on C. arabica flowers while the opposite was observed for C. canephora flowers. For both species, high coffee floral availability was the main predicting factor for the proportion of coffee pollen on the bees bodies. Surprisingly, neither neighborhood floral availability nor the type of coffee plantation (agroforest/shade or sun) were important predictors of bee visitation. These results suggest non-coffee flowering plants in coffee plantations were neither competitors nor facilitators of coffee plantes for pollinators. Additionally, most of the bees surveyed were carrying 80% pollen from one species ( C. arabica or C. canephora ), likely resulting in little heterospecific pollen deposition between Coffea and non-Coffea flowers. Shade trees in coffee plantations do not detract from pollinator visitation to coffee flowers, suggesting that the provision of multiple ecological and wildlife conservation benefits by shade trees is not in conflict with a growers ability to maximize the benefits of insect pollination on fruit production.

Adjuntas Lares,Las Marias, Maricao, Puerto Rico Ut↗

USGS2008

Canopy structure and atmospheric flows in relation to the δ13C of respired CO 2 in a subalpine coniferous forest

Stable isotopes provide insight into ecosystem carbon cycling, plant physiological processes, atmospheric boundary-layer dynamics, and are useful for the integration of processes over multiple scales. Of particular interest is the carbon isotope content (δ 13 C) of nocturnal ecosystem-respired CO 2 ( δ R ). Recent advances in technology have made it possible to continuously examine the variation in δ R within a forest canopy over relatively long time-scales (months–years). We used tunable diode laser spectroscopy to examine δ R at within- and below-canopy spatial locations in a Colorado subalpine forest (the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site). We found a systematic pattern of increased δ R within the forest canopy ( δ R-c ) compared to that near the ground ( δ R-g ). Values of δ R-c were weakly correlated with the previous day's mean maximum daytime vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Conversely, there was a negative but still weak correlation between δ R-g and time-lagged (0–5 days) daily mean soil moisture. The topography and presence of sustained nightly drainage flows at the Niwot Ridge forest site suggests that, on nights with stable atmospheric conditions, there is little mixing of air near the ground with that in the canopy. Atmospheric stability was assessed using thresholds of friction velocity, stability above the canopy, and bulk Richardson number within the canopy. When we selectively calculated δ R-g and δ R-c by removing time periods when ground and canopy air were well mixed, we found stronger correlations between δ R-c and VPD, and δ R-g and soil moisture. This suggests that there may be fundamental differences in the environmental controls on δ R at sub-canopy spatial scales. These results may help explain the wide variance observed in the correlation of δ R with different environmental parameters in other studies.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

A comparative analysis of OpenET for evaluating evapotranspiration in California almond orchards

The almond industry in California faces water management challenges that are being exacerbated by droughts, climate change, and groundwater sustainability legislation. The Tree-crop Remote sensing of Evapotranspiration eXperiment (T-REX) aims to explore opportunities to improve precision irrigation management for woody perennial cropping systems. Almond orchards in the California Central Valley were equipped with eddy covariance flux measurements to evaluate satellite remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (RSET) models. OpenET provides high-resolution (30-m spatial and daily temporal) RSET data, synthesizing decades of research for practical water management. This study provides an evaluation of OpenET performance at six almond sites covering a large range in soils, age, and variety. It also compares OpenET ensemble evapotranspiration (ET) data with applied irrigation and precipitation records over an additional 148 almond orchards located in the Central Valley of California. Results show OpenET models, including the ensemble ET value, produced reasonable and actionable ET values, with overall coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error values of 0.73- and 0.95-mm d −1 at the daily time step, respectively. However, given the temporal sampling of Landsat (8-day revisit) and the interpolation methods used, the assessed ET models had difficulty in capturing short-term variability in almond ET; for example, the rapid decline in measured ET observed as a response to lack of irrigation preceding and during almond harvest. The study also drew attention to the spatial complexity in scenarios where irrigated orchards are surrounded by hot/dry areas, causing discrepancies between measured and modeled ET values. In comparison with irrigation records, OpenET ensemble ET was capable of quantifying water input (applied irrigation + precipitation) in almond orchards to within 13 % when evaluating monthly data. Initial results presented here reinforce the idea that RSET models, such as in OpenET, are powerful tools, yet their application requires nuanced understanding and careful consideration of local conditions.

California↗

USGS2026

Lowland tropical forests remain a methane sink under warming and long-term hurricane disturbance recovery

Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and tropical forests account for roughly one–third of global atmospheric CH 4 uptake by soils. Projected warming and more frequent hurricanes in these ecosystems may alter soil CH 4 sink strength, as warmer and wetter soils enhance methanogenesis activity. We measured soil CH 4 and CO 2 efflux during the calendar summer months of 2023 and 2024 alongside continuous records of soil moisture, soil and air temperature, and precipitation in an in–situ warming experiment (TRACE) located in a lowland tropical forest in Puerto Rico, six to seven years after Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017). The realized warming (∼1.95°C) enhanced soil respiration only in summer 2023 ( p < 0.05), but net soil CH 4 uptake was invariant in both campaigns ( p > 0.05). Instead, sampling day and between–plot variability explained soil CH 4 dynamics much more than treatment contrasts. Importantly, CH 4 uptake was consistently coupled to CO 2 efflux, suggesting tight linkages between methanotrophic and heterotrophic activities. Between treatments, CH 4 and CO 2 responses to soil temperature variation were less sensitive in warmed plots, which may suggest weak metabolic upregulation under elevated temperatures. Together, these findings indicate that lowland tropical soils remain CH 4 sink even under warming and years after hurricane disturbance, with CH 4 dynamics driven more by spatial and temporal variability than experimental warming. Long–term, high–resolution monitoring integrating soil biogeochemistry and microbial processes will be critical to determine whether the observed net CH 4 uptake signal represents a sustainable or transient response under continued warming and disturbance.

Puerto Rico, Sabana Field Research Station↗

USGS2013

Deep subsurface drip irrigation using coal-bed sodic water: part II. geochemistry

Waters with low salinity and high sodium adsorption ratios (SARs) present a challenge to irrigation because they degrade soil structure and infiltration capacity. In the Powder River Basin of Wyoming, such low salinity (electrical conductivity, EC 2.1 mS cm -1 ) and high-SAR (54) waters are co-produced with coal-bed methane and some are used for subsurface drip irrigation(SDI). The SDI system studied mixes sulfuric acid with irrigation water and applies water year-round via drip tubing buried 92 cm deep. After six years of irrigation, SAR values between 0 and 30 cm depth (0.5-1.2) are only slightly increased over non-irrigated soils (0.1-0.5). Only 8-15% of added Na has accumulated above the drip tubing. Sodicity has increased in soil surrounding the drip tubing, and geochemical simulations show that two pathways can generate sodic conditions. In soil between 45-cm depth and the drip tubing, Na from the irrigation water accumulates as evapotranspiration concentrates solutes. SAR values >12, measured by 1:1 water-soil extracts, are caused by concentration of solutes by factors up to 13. Low-EC (<0.7 mS cm -1 ) is caused by rain and snowmelt flushing the soil and displacing ions in soil solution. Soil below the drip tubing experiences lower solute concentration factors (1-1.65) due to excess irrigation water and also contains relatively abundant native gypsum (2.4 ± 1.7 wt.%). Geochemical simulations show gypsum dissolution decreases soil-water SAR to <7 and increases the EC to around 4.1 mS cm-1, thus limiting negative impacts from sodicity. With sustained irrigation, however, downward flow of excess irrigation water depletes gypsum, increasing soil-water SAR to >14 and decreasing EC in soil water to 3.2 mS cm-1. Increased sodicity in the subsurface, rather than the surface, indicates that deep SDI can be a viable means of irrigating with sodic waters.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Irrigated agriculture and future climate change effects on groundwater recharge, northern High Plains aquifer, USA

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential ( ψ T ) time series) and chemical tracer and dating ( 3 H, Cl − , Br − , CFCs, SF 6 , and 3 H/ 3 He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D models, and irrigation requirements were estimated using the Crops Simulation Model (CROPSIM). Future model simulations were driven by an ensemble of 16 global climate models and two global warming scenarios to project a 2050 climate relative to the historical baseline 1990 climate, and simulate changes in precipitation, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and diffuse and irrigation recharge rates. Although results indicate statistical differences between the historical variables at the eastern and western sites and rangeland and irrigated sites, the low warming scenario (+1.0 °C) simulations indicate no statistical differences between 2050 and 1990. However, the high warming scenarios (+2.4 °C) indicate a 25% and 15% increase in median annual evapotranspiration and irrigation demand, and decreases in future diffuse recharge by 53% and 98% and irrigation recharge by 47% and 29% at the eastern and western sites, respectively. These results indicate an important threshold between the low and high warming scenarios that if exceeded could trigger a significant bidirectional shift in 2050 hydroclimatology and recharge gradients. The bidirectional shift is that future northern High Plains temperatures will resemble present central High Plains temperatures and future recharge rates in the east will resemble present recharge rates in the western part of the northern High Plains aquifer. The reductions in recharge rates could accelerate declining water levels if irrigation demand and other management strategies are not implemented. Findings here have important implications for future management of irrigation practices and to slow groundwater depletion in this important agricultural region.

Northern High Plains Aquifer↗