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A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of inter- and intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellite-driven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004–2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1–2 m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4 m between the years 1998–2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance model for (i) quantitative assessment of the impact of basin developmental activities on lake levels and for (ii) forecasting lake level changes and their impact on fisheries. From this study, we suggest that globally available satellite altimetry data provide a unique opportunity for calibration and validation of hydrologic models in ungauged basins.

Lake Turkana↗

Overview and USGS activities

The discipline of cartography is undergoing a number of profound changes that center on the emerging influence of digital manipulation and analysis of data. Perhaps the most fundamental distinction between the digital representation of cartographic data and the conventional printed graphic is the need to explicitly and unambiguously code the attributes and spatial relationships among the various data elements. It is also necessary to follow acceptable practices for automated data processing. These requirements have led to the development by the USGS National Mapping Division of several documents that establish in-house digital cartographic standards. In an effort to fulfill lead agency requirements for promulgation of Federal standards in the earth sciences, the documents have been assembled with explanatory text into a USGS Circular. This Circular describes some of the pertinent issues relative to digital cartographic data standards, documents the digital cartographic data standards currently in use within the USGS, and details the efforts of the USGS related to the definition of national digital cartographic data standards. It consists of several chapters; the first is a general overview, and each succeeding chapter is made up from documents that establish in-house standards for one of the various types of digital cartographic data currently produced.

Circular↗

Forecasting for a fractured land: A case study of the communication and use of aftershock forecasts from the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand

Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time‐dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text‐based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizations to agencies and the public, with the intent of providing information about future earthquake hazard and risk, so that people can use this information to inform their decisions and activities. Despite questions being raised about the utility of OEF for decision‐making, past earthquake events have shown that agencies and the public have indeed made use of such forecasts. Responses have included making decisions about safe access into buildings, cordoning, demolition safety, timing of infrastructure repair and rebuild, insurance, postearthquake building standards, postevent land‐use planning, and public communication about aftershocks. To add to this body of knowledge, we undertook a survey to investigate how agencies and GNS Science staff used OEFs that were communicated following the M w 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand. We found that agencies utilized OEFs in many of the ways listed previously, and we document individual employee’s actions taken in their home‐life context. Challenges remain, however, regarding the interpretation of probabilistic information and applying this to practical decision‐making. We suggest that science agencies cannot expect nontechnical users to understand and utilize forecasts without additional support. This might include developing a diversity of audience‐relevant OEF information for communication purposes, alongside advice on how such information could be utilized.

northern part of South Island↗

Visitor survey results for the Souris River Loop National Wildlife Refuges: Completion report

In support of the CCP planning effort for the Souris River Loop Refuges, the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch/Fort Collins Science Center (PASA) of the U.S. Geological Survey conducted visitor surveys at three refuges in North Dakota: Des Lacs, J. Clark Salyer, and Upper Souris National Wildlife Refuges. This research was conducted in order to assess visitor experience, perceptions, and preferences and visitor spending related to recreation on these public lands. This baseline information and input is needed by the refuges to inform their CCP process. Specifically, this survey research assesses the characteristics of visitors and their trips, the activities in which visitors engage while on the refuge, details regarding their trip experience, as well as their preferences and attitudes about various management features, including existing and future conditions.

Souris River Loop National Wildlife Refuges↗

Updates to the Madison Lake (Minnesota) CE–QUAL–W2 water-quality model for assessing algal community dynamics

A previously developed CE–QUAL–W2 model for Madison Lake, Minnesota, simulated the algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of Madison Lake under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. Additionally, this previously developed model simulated the complex interplay between external nutrient loading, internal nutrient loading from sediment release of phosphorus, and the organic matter decomposition of the algal biomass. However, the partitioning of Cyanophyta within the modeling framework was simplified to one group and did not account for how different Cyanophyta populations are affected by light conditions, use of nitrogen, temperature growth ranges, and differences in settling rates. Properly capturing Cyanophyta dynamics is important given the potential risks posed by potential large algal blooms. For example, when Cyanophyta form large blooms, recreational activities can become restricted in certain areas because of thick algal scums or algal mats, in addition to the possible production of a class of toxins, known as cyanotoxins, capable of threatening human health, domestic animals, and wildlife. Therefore, we updated the model to partition the Cyanophyta into a group that fixed nitrogen and a second, more buoyant Cyanophyta group that did not independently fix nitrogen. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the St. Croix Watershed Research Station (Science Museum of Minnesota) with support from the Environmental and Natural Resources Trust Fund of Minnesota (Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources), updated the Madison Lake CE–QUAL–W2 model to address the shortcomings of simulating Cyanophyta in the previously developed model and better characterize Cyanophyta into two groups. In addition to updating the Cyanophyta group differentiation, the part of the model that handles the simulation of algal community dynamics was updated while preserving model predictive capabilities for nutrients, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen. The calibration and validation of the model was done under recent meteorological conditions with large and persistent Cyanophyta blooms (2014 and 2016). Overall, the model simulations predicted the persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in the hypolimnion of Madison Lake and key differences in nutrient concentrations between 2014 and 2016. The Cyanophyta bloom persistence throughout the summer was also simulated by the model in 2014 and 2016, a critical goal of the model update. Finally, monthly total phosphorus budgets were calculated for the updated Madison Lake model for 2014 and 2016.

Minnesota↗

Intermountain west drought social science synthesis working group: Report to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center

Throughout the Intermountain West, there has been significant investment in understanding how social factors influence manager and citizen experiences of drought in particular locations. Yet there is still a gap in knowledge of how human dimensions of drought impacts, planning, and resilience are similar and different across cases and regions. Building on the natural science understanding developed by the USGS’ various ecological drought projects as well as a range of other place-based social science case studies of drought and its impacts, this project explored human dimensions of ecological drought across the intermountain west from a comparative, regional perspective. The Working Group brought together agency and university experts in the field of drought social science, including researchers affiliated with the North Central and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (USGS), Western Water Assessment (a NOAA RISA program), the Northern Plains Climate Hub (USDA), and the USGS-supported SNAPP Ecological Drought Working Group. The group held three virtual meeting during Spring 2018 in preparation for an extended in-person workshop in June 2018 in Fort Collins, CO, followed by monthly calls to finalize products. The group’s objectives were to (1) integrate insights from existing social science studies of drought to identify commonalities and trends that generalize across cases while simultaneously accounting for the complexity experienced in particular places by individual decision makers, (2) develop a common lexicon and analytic framework for understanding drought across the Intermountain West from a social-ecological systems perspective, (3) identify emergent research themes, questions, and needs, (4) consider strategies for social scientists to contribute to drought management, (5) facilitate coordination among federal and university researchers for future collaborative activities, and (6) develop a typology of drought decision making that captured group insights. Project outputs included two conference sessions, a typology manuscript to be submitted by the end of FY19, and the conceptual framing of a rapid assessment methodology that was subsequently developed into a standalone project.

Cooperator Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal years 2007 and 2008

In the late 1800s, John Wesley Powell, the second director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), followed his interest in the tribes of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and studied their cultures, languages, and surroundings. From that early time, the USGS has recognized the importance of Native knowledge and living in harmony with nature as complements to the USGS mission to better understand the Earth. Combining traditional ecological knowledge with empirical studies allows the USGS and Native American governments, organizations, and people to increase their mutual understanding and respect for this land. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and is not responsible for regulations or land management. Climate change is a major current issue affecting Native lives and traditions throughout the United States. Climate projections for the coming century indicate an increasing probability for more frequent and more severe droughts in the Southwest, including the Navajo Nation. Erosion has claimed Native homes in Alaska. Fish have become inedible due to diseases that turn their flesh mushy. Native people who rely on or who are culturally sustained by hunting, fishing, and using local plants are living with climate change now. The traditional knowledge of Native peoples enriches and confirms the work of USGS scientists. The results are truly synergistic-greater than the sum of their parts. Traditional ecological knowledge is respected and increasingly used in USGS studies-when the holders of that knowledge choose to share it. The USGS respects the rights of Native people to maintain their patrimony of traditional ecological knowledge. The USGS studies can help Tribes, Native organizations, and natural resource professionals manage Native lands and resources with the best available unbiased data and information that can be added to their traditional knowledge. Wise Native leaders have noted that traditional ecological knowledge includes the connections between Earth and her denizens. From this perspective, it is the connections among these ?relatives? that needs to be nurtured. This perspective on nature is finding new adherents among Natives and non-Natives as understanding of climate change and other environmental conditions deepens. Although this report uses the term ?resources,? the USGS, through its interdisciplinary research, acknowledges the interconnectedness of the Earth and the things that live upon it.

Circular↗

Age distribution of Serra Geral (Paraná) flood basalts, southern Brazil

We evaluated 193 K-Ar ages (10 newly determined) of basaltic and differentiated rocks of the Serra Geral (Paran&aacute;) flood-basalt province for indications of magmatism occurring systematically with progressive rifting and complete separation ( &asymp;130-105 Ma) of South America from Africa. The K-Ar ages represent basalt emplacement between 35&deg; and 19&deg;S covering about 1,200,000 km 2 . We note that volcanism appears ubiquitous across the province between about 140 and 115 Ma, and that there are no significant age differences within that relate directly to progressive south-to-north tectonism. On the other hand, the oldest samples, about 140&ndash;160 Ma, are among those nearest the Brazil coastline (rift margin), perhaps suggesting migration of activity away from the rift with time. Studies of other flood-basalt provinces now indicate short (<3 m.y.) eruption periods, thereby pointing to the need for re-examination of Serra Geral ages by 40 Ar- 39 Ar incremental heating techniques.

Journal of South American Earth Sciences↗

A golden era for volcanic gas geochemistry?

The exsolution, rise, expansion, and separation of volatiles from magma provides the driving force behind both effusive and explosive volcanic eruptions. The field of volcanic gas geochemistry therefore plays a key role in understanding volcanism. In this article, we summarize the most important findings of the past few decades and how these shape today’s understanding of volcanic degassing. We argue that the recent advent of automated, continuous geochemical monitoring at volcanoes now allows us to track activity from unrest to eruption, thus providing valuable insights into the behavior of volatiles throughout the entire sequence. In the next 10 years, the research community stands to benefit from the expansion of geochemical monitoring networks to many more active volcanoes. This, along with technical advances in instrumentation, and in particular the increasing role that unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) and satellite-based observations are likely to play in collecting volcanic gas measurements, will provide a rich dataset for testing hypotheses and developing diagnostic tools for eruption forecasts. The use of consistent, well-documented analytical methods and ensuring free, public access to the collected data with few restrictions will be most beneficial to the advancement of volcanic gas science.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

Estimating the pelagic ocean’s benefits to humanity can enhance ocean governance

The human footprint on the global ocean is ever-increasing, particularly with new ways to grow food in the ocean, new technologies in marine energy production as a way to resolve climate change, and transport and commerce expanding across the ocean. Yet, human activities in the ocean have long been managed using a sectoral approach (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity protection, energy production, shipping) rather than a holistic integration of sector interactions, trade-offs, costs, and benefits. Coordination across sectors is now more critical than ever, not only because of the expanding human footprint but also because of climate change impacts on the ocean. Sustainable global ocean use can support the Blue Economy while also reversing negative climate impacts on the ocean. Advancements in science and technology, along with increasing momentum on global commitments to sound ocean governance, and science diplomacy internationally can support sustainable ocean use with accurate and timely information about the status and trends in the ocean’s ecosystem services (benefits) to society. Near-real time information about ecosystem services’ dynamics is critical to policymaking for a sustainable Blue Economy that works for nature and people in an ever-changing ocean. Here, we propose seven principles for ecosystem service assessments, essentially to international science diplomacy, for consideration by global marine policy communities.

Marine Policy↗

10. The surface and interior of venus

Present ideas about the surface and interior of Venus are based on data obtained from (1) Earth-based radio and radar: temperature, rotation, shape, and topography; (2) fly-by and orbiting spacecraft: gravity and magnetic fields; and (3) landers: winds, local structure, gamma radiation. Surface features, including large basins, crater-like depressions, and a linear valley, have been recognized from recent ground-based radar images. Pictures of the surface acquired by the USSR's Venera 9 and 10 show abundant boulders and apparent wind erosion. On the Pioneer Venus 1978 Orbiter mission, the radar mapper experiment will determine surface heights, dielectric constant values and small-scale slope values along the sub-orbital track between 50??S and 75??N. This experiment will also estimate the global shape and provide coarse radar images (40-80 km identification resolution) of part of the surface. Gravity data will be obtained by radio tracking. Maps combining radar altimetry with spacecraft and ground-based images will be made. A fluxgate magnetometer will measure the magnetic fields around Venus. The radar and gravity data will provide clues to the level of crustal differentiation and tectonic activity. The magnetometer will determine the field variations accurately. Data from the combined experiments may constrain the dynamo mechanism; if so, a deeper understanding of both Venus and Earth will be gained. ?? 1977 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Space Science Reviews↗

Paleomagnetism of Midway Atoll lavas and northward movement of the Pacific plate

Two deep drill holes through the reef limestones of Midway Atoll penetrated 120 m and 19 m of basaltic lavas that were dated by the K Ar method at 18 my. Inclinations of natural remanent magnetization have been measured in 173 specimens cut from 57 core samples from 13 of the lava flows. The mean paleomagnetic inclination is27.6° ± 6.8°, corresponding to a paleolatitude of14.7° ± 4.2°. The present latitude of Midway is 28°, suggesting a northward component of motion of the Pacific plate of approximately 13° or 1400 km in the last 18 my. The paleolatitude of Midway is thus not significantly different from the present latitude (19°) of the active volcanic island of Hawaii. The paleomagnetic data from the Midway basalts thus support the hypothesis of Wilson and Morgan that volcanic heat sources are fixed with respect to the Earth's mantle below the asthenosphere and their apparent migration with time is due to plate motion.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and the multiple functions and services of river-floodplain systems, although, the selection of promising sites for restoration projects can be a demanding task. In the case of the Danube River in Europe, planning and implementation of restoration projects is substantially hampered by the complexity and heterogeneity of the environmental problems, lack of data and strong differences in socio-economic conditions as well as inconsistencies in legislation related to river management. We take a quantitative approach based on best-available data to assess biodiversity using selected species and three ecosystem services (flood regulation, crop pollination , and recreation), focused on the navigable main stem of the Danube River and its floodplains. We spatially prioritize river-floodplain segments for conservation and restoration based on (1) multi-functionality related to biodiversity and ecosystem services, (2) availability of remaining semi-natural areas and (3) reversibility as it relates to multiple human activities (e.g. flood protection, hydropowerand navigation). Our approach can thus serve as a strategic planning tool for the Danube and provide a method for similar analyses in other large river-floodplain systems.

Danube River↗

A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone

A review of the scientific issues relevant to characterizing earthquake sources in the New Madrid seismic zone has led to the development of a logic tree of possible alternative parameters. A variability analysis, using Monte Carlo sampling of this consensus logic tree, is presented and discussed. The analysis shows that for 2%-exceedence-in-50-year hazard, the best-estimate seismic hazard map is similar to previously published seismic hazard maps for the area. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s (0.2 and 1.0 s Sa), the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the knowledge-based uncertainty in seismic hazard can exceed 0.6 over the New Madrid seismic zone and diminishes to about 0.1 away from areas of seismic activity. Sensitivity analyses show that the largest contributor to PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 s Sa seismic hazard variability is the uncertainty in the location of future 1811-1812 New Madrid sized earthquakes. This is followed by the variability due to the choice of ground motion attenuation relation, the magnitude for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, and the recurrence interval for M>6.5 events. Seismic hazard is not very sensitive to the variability in seismogenic width and length. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Engineering Geology↗

Parasite manipulation of brain monoamines in California killifish (Fundulus parvipinnis) by the trematode Euhaplorchis californiensis

California killifish (Fundulus parvipinnis) infected with the brain-encysting trematode Euhaplorchis californiensis display conspicuous swimming behaviours rendering them more susceptible to predation by avian final hosts. Heavily infected killifish grow and reproduce normally, despite having thousands of cysts inside their braincases. This suggests that E. californiensis affects only specific locomotory behaviours. We hypothesised that changes in the serotonin and dopamine metabolism, essential for controlling locomotion and arousal may underlie this behaviour modification. We employed micropunch dissection and HPLC to analyse monoamine and monoamine metabolite concentrations in the brain regions of uninfected and experimentally infected fish. The parasites exerted density-dependent changes in monoaminergic activity distinct from those exhibited by fish subjected to stress. Specifically, E. californiensis inhibited a normally occurring, stress-induced elevation of serotonergic metabolism in the raphae nuclei. This effect was particularly evident in the experimentally infected fish, whose low-density infections were concentrated on the brainstem. Furthermore, high E. californiensis density was associated with increased dopaminergic activity in the hypothalamus and decreased serotonergic activity in the hippocampus. In conclusion, the altered monoaminergic metabolism may explain behavioural differences leading to increased predation of the infected killifish by their final host predators. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Fluid chemistry and evolution of hydrothermal fluids in an Archaean transcrustal fault zone network: The case of the Cadillac Tectonic Zone, Abitibi greenstone belt, Canada

Detailed fluid geochemistry studies on hydrothermal quartz veins from the Rouyn-Noranda and Val-d'Or areas along the transcrustal Cadillac Tectonic Zone (CTZ) indicate that unmineralized (with respect to gold) sections of the CTZ contained a distinct CO2-dominated, H2S-poor hydrothermal fluid. In contrast, both gold mineralized sections of the CTZ (e.g., at Orenada #2) and associated higher order shear zones have a H2O-CO2 ?? CH4-NaCl hydrothermal fluid. Their CO2/H2S ratios indicate H2S-rich compositions. The Br/Cl compositions in fluid inclusions trapped in these veins indicate that hydrothermal fluids have been equilibrated with the crust. Oxygen isotope ratios from hydrothermal quartz veins in the CTZ are consistently 2??? more enriched than those of associated higher order shear zones, which are interpreted to be a function of greater fluid/rock ratios in the CTZ and lower fluid/rock ratios, and more efficient equilibration of the hydrothermal fluid with the wall rock, in higher order shear zones. An implication from this study is that the lower metal endowment of the transcrustal CTZ, when compared with the higher metal endowment in higher order shear zones (ratio of about 1 : 1000), may be the result of the lack of significant amounts of H2O-H2S rich fluids in most of the CTZ. In contrast, gold mineralization in the higher order shear zones appear to be controlled by the high H2S activity of the aqueous fluids, because gold was likely transported in a bisulfide complex and was deposited during sulfidation reactions in the wall rock and phase separation in the quartz veins. ?? 2007 NRC Canada.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences↗

Ground penetrating radar and differential global positioning system data collected in April 2016 from Fire Island, New York

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a long-term coastal morphologic-change study at Fire Island, New York, prior to and after Hurricane Sandy impacted the area in October 2012. The Fire Island Coastal Change project objectives include understanding the morphologic evolution of the barrier island system on a variety of time scales (months to centuries) and resolving storm-related impacts, post-storm beach response, and recovery. In April 2016, scientists from the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted geophysical and sediment sampling surveys on Fire Island to characterize and quantify spatial variability in the subaerial geology with the goal of subsequently integrating onshore geology with other surf zone and nearshore datasets. This report, along with the associated USGS data release , serves as an archive of ground penetrating radar (GPR) and post-processed differential global positioning system (DGPS) data collected from beach and back-barrier environments on Fire Island, April 6–13, 2016 (USGS Field Activity Number 2016-322-FA). Data products, including unprocessed GPR trace data, processed DGPS data, elevation-corrected subsurface profile images, geographic information system files, and accompanying Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata are available for download.

New York↗