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USGS2026

2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first version of the PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and therefore this 2025 update includes over 20 years of new geologic, geophysical, and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. However, this is the first NSHM in which we: (1) apply an inversion methodology to subduction interface fault sources in the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) model; (2) develop scaled backbone median ground-motion models and independent aleatory variability models that are applied in the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model; and (3) calculate epistemic uncertainty related to alternative scenarios in the ERF and GMC models for all grid points in the study region. Long-term time-independent mean hazard calculations were performed for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudospectral acceleration at 21 spectral periods from 0.01- to 10.0-s, for eight National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site conditions ranging from V S30 = 150 to 1500 m/s, and for 2%, 5%, and 10% in 50-year probabilities of exceedance (return periods of 2475, 975, and 475 years, respectively). Epistemic uncertainty, in the form of selected percentiles, is also provided for a suite of test sites and all grid points in the study region for limited periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. Selected results, including comparisons with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, are shown and discussed for selected periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. When comparing the 2025 PRVI NSHM with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, hazard is generally higher at shorter periods and lower at longer periods, as a result of updates in both ERF and GMC models. The 2025 PRVI NSHM is applicable for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2024

Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, performed record extensions on groundwater levels at select wells using the Maintenance of Variance Extension type 1 (MOVE.1) method. The groundwater levels estimated from these record extensions were used to compute monthly percentiles to improve future determinations of a groundwater index. In Massachusetts, 27 of 29 short-record study wells with continuous groundwater levels between 0.8 and 8.1 years were suitable for record extensions; 37 long-record index wells were used to extend the groundwater level records at the study wells. The index well selected to pair with a study well was chosen based on Pearson correlation coefficient values; cross-correlation between the two wells; geologic and topographic similarity; and smallest distance spanning the wells. Each study well and its corresponding index well have 1 or more years of concurrent, overlapping data; a Pearson correlation coefficient that exceeded a threshold value of 0.8; and a similar aquifer type and hydrologic characteristics. Of the 29 study wells, 2 showed poor correlations with all index wells and were not considered for record extensions. Performance metrics used to assess the accuracy of the MOVE.1 models indicated that most models provided reasonable estimates of groundwater levels. Root mean square error values ranged from 0.097 to 2.292 feet, with a median of 0.536 foot. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values ranged from 0.623 to 0.996, with a median value of 0.759. Generally, study wells in close geographical proximity to their index well resulted in stronger model performance. The average length of groundwater level records was extended by 14.1 years to a new average of 18.1 years. The estimated groundwater level records from the MOVE.1 models resulted in an increase in the range of highest and lowest groundwater levels at 23 of 27 wells. The increase in range of groundwater levels was between 0.08 to 7.95 feet. Monthly percentiles for State drought indices were computed from the estimated MOVE.1 records and observed records through December 31, 2021. Percentiles computed from estimated records show an average groundwater level about 1.0 foot lower than observed data at the 2d percentile and 0.1 foot lower at the 30th percentile.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2026

Groundwater source water assessment area delineation of public supply wells in the Treasure Valley, western Idaho

The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (IDEQ) is responsible for assessing the source water for public water supply systems including the delineation of source water assessment areas for wells, which are defined as the subsurface areas contributing water to a well during a period of time. Part of the IDEQ assessment plan is to update source water assessments over time. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a new groundwater-flow model for part of the western Snake River Plain aquifer in southwestern Idaho. This groundwater- flow model provided a new opportunity for IDEQ to update source water assessment for public water supply wells within the model boundary. The USGS, in cooperation with IDEQ, used the USGS Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model along with a MODPATH particle tracking post-processing program to reassess public-water supply source water assessment areas. The USGS created an automated script that requests a well location, depth, and pumpage rate, and then incorporates that information into the Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model combined with the MODPATH model to create 3-, 6-, and 10-year time of travel zones that are output to a geographic information system shapefile. The TVSWA_Delineator script provides a fast, transparent tool for IDEQ to reassess or create new public-water supply source water assessment area delineations based on new and updated information and is available as a Python script and a Windows executable with the compiled script and all necessary components. TVSWA_Delineator utilizes a quadtree approach to rediscretize the Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model grid around the pumping well location from 1-mile cell lengths telescoped down to 1/16 mile. This rediscretization increases the source water assessment area delineation resolution near the pumping well and minimizes the effect of weak sinks in the MODPATH model. The stress inputs for each month of the final 10 years (2006 to 2015) of the Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow model historical simulation were averaged for the particle tracking analysis. The MODPATH model used backwards tracking of particles released at each stress period to create the source water assessment area delineations. This report documents the creation of the TVSWA_Delineator Python script, including adaptations made to the Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model, creation of a companion MODPATH model, and post-processing results to provide source water assessment areas.

Idaho↗

USGS2024

Methods to evaluate and improve the modeling of rupture directivity in assessment of seismic hazard

In recent years, there have been several advancements related to the modelling of near-source effects of earthquake rupture on strong ground shaking, leading to an improved characterization of ground motions and resulting seismic hazard. Some of these modifications have stemmed from physics-based numerical modelling of the earthquake rupture process, using physics-based dynamic rupture simulations. These contributions have led to a better understanding of how fault rupture characteristics, geometry, and the style of faulting can interact with the hypocenter-dependence on the path from source to site that may ultimately guide the development of seismic directivity models. Moving forward, the application of modern techniques can be used to incorporate these source characteristics and near-fault ground motion behavior that contribute to the azimuthally varying effects that result in rupture directivity. One example is the application of machine learning methods to support more automated integration of new predictor variables in model development and open more evaluation opportunities to access residuals. Here, we utilize several techniques to take advantage of the plethora of synthetic data and its ability to supplement preexisting trends observed in data. We showcase two examples of how models can be either developed, expanded upon, or constrained using artificial neural network model (ANNs). We evaluate the performance of the ANN with existing methods, comparing misfit, potential limitations, and ability to continue to improve upon these methods in the future. One approach uses a set of simulations with corresponding synthetic ground motions from the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) CyberShake study to develop a ground motion model adapted to incorporate seismic directivity information using an ANN. This large database (TBs) enables us to train the model to capture magnitude, period, and distance variations and how these parameters relate to amplification from hypocenters located along finite-faults. In some cases, there is reduced misfit from better representing source features that aren’t included in base ground motion models that neglect hypocenter location (e.g. azimuthal variation, source-to-site terms). Another ANN method uses a shallow-layered neural network model to better fit a hypocenter-independent model. This method adjusts the median and aleatory variability to account for the averaged impact of various hypocenter distributions to fit the underlying directivity adjustment model. This method serves as a template to apply to other directivity models, improving computational efficiency and more readily enabling integration in hazard codes.

California↗

USGS2025

Structural setting and geothermal potential of northeastern Reese River Valley, north-central Nevada: Highly prospective detailed study site for the INGENIOUS project

The northeastern part of the Reese River basin situated ~15 km southeast of Battle Mountain, Nevada, scored highly in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) for hosting potential hidden geothermal systems. This site (also referred to as Argenta Rise) was therefore chosen for detailed study in the INGENIOUS project (INnovative Geothermal Exploration through Novel Investigations Of Undiscovered Systems). The high PFA scores resulted primarily from favorable structural settings (e.g., fault intersections and pull aparts) with relatively high slip rates on Quaternary faults. The INGENIOUS project is utilizing additional parameters and more rigorous analytical techniques to further advance exploration at this site. This includes integration of geological (e.g., Quaternary fault mapping) and new geophysical datasets (e.g., gravity, magnetics, MT data, and five reprocessed seismic reflection profiles) to build a structural model and to identify specific favorable sites for potential geothermal upwellings. Two-meter temperature surveys were also conducted in the area (139 measurements). This part of north-central Nevada is characterized by systems of intersecting northerly and ENE-striking faults within the broader Humboldt structural zone, a poorly understood belt of ENE-striking faults and relatively high heat flow extending across northern Nevada. Kinematic analysis of exposed fault surfaces shows that ENE-striking faults have accommodated sinistral-normal slip, and normal slip characterizes N- to NNE-striking faults. Northeastern Reese River Valley lies within a broad left step between major ENE-striking fault zones on the northern flanks of the Argenta Rim and Shoshone Range and thus corresponds to a broad pull-apart in the ENE-striking sinistral-normal fault system. Notably, the nearby Beowawe geothermal system in Whirlwind Valley (with abundant sinter, hot springs, and a geothermal power plant) occupies a fault intersection in a relatively small left step in a major ENE-striking sinistral-normal fault and may serve as an analogue for a potential hidden system in northeastern Reese River Valley. Existing geological maps, high-resolution lidar, and seismic reflection data demonstrate that northeastern Reese River Valley is structurally complex with multiple intersections between the ENE- and N- to NNE-striking fault systems. Some of these fault intersections correspond to low resistivity anomalies, magnetic lows, and/or very subtle 2-m temperature anomalies, which may indicate hidden geothermal upwellings. Three-dimensional modeling and temperature-gradient drilling are planned to further evaluate these sites for geothermal activity.

Nevada↗

USGS2025

The Hardscrabble Creek complex: A newly discovered, mostly buried, Mesoproterozoic mafic-ultramafic pluton in the Wet Mountains, Colorado, USA

The origin of prolific ca. 1.4 Ga ferroan magmatism between the southwestern USA and eastern Canada is enigmatic and has been explained by various models, including extensional, mantle plume, and convergent plate-margin models. Rare mafic plutons are associated with the ferroan plutons, which may help constrain their mantle source and tectonic setting. In the southwestern USA, only two such mafic plutons are known to exist. We present the first evidence for a third, mostly buried, potentially layered, mafic-ultramafic Mesoproterozoic pluton, informally referred to as the Hardscrabble Creek complex, in the central Wet Mountains of Colorado, USA. Recent geophysical data show an elliptical magnetic and gravity high spatially coincident with local gabbroic outcrops. New field and petrographic analyses of these exposed rocks reveal that they consist of ultramafic to mafic cumulates, including orthopyroxenite, olivine norite, norite, and anorthosite. High-precision U-Pb dating of zircon from orthopyroxenite and norite yield weighted mean 206 Pb/ 238 U dates of 1352.36 ± 1.60 Ma and 1352.37 ± 1.71 Ma, respectively. These dates indicate that the complex formed over a narrow timeframe, after the adjacent 1362 ± 7 Ma ferroan San Isabel Granite, and during the waning stages of the regional ca. 1.4 Ga ferroan magmatism. Whole-rock geochemistry and Nd-Sr-Pb isotope compositions of samples from the Hardscrabble Creek complex are similar to those of the San Isabel Granite, suggesting that they were derived from the same or a similar mantle source. The mineral chemistry of the samples is comparable to Proterozoic massif-type anorthosites and related mafic intrusions, indicating that the Hardscrabble Creek complex and San Isabel Granite together represent a rare anorthosite-mangerite-charnockite-granite (AMCG) suite in the southwestern USA. The Hardscrabble Creek complex is unique because it formed ~80 m.y. after the other few mafic plutons in the southwestern USA, and it contains an ultramafic section that is absent from these plutons and rare to the AMCG suite in general. A combination of arc-like whole-rock geochemistry, chondrite uniform reservoir-like Nd-Sr-Pb isotopes, and ocean island basalt (OIB)-like zircon trace element chemistry suggests that the complex was derived from a partial melt of OIB-like mantle and interacted with metasomatically enriched lithospheric mantle. The enriched lithospheric mantle signature, combined with the long ~160 m.y. duration of magmatism in the region, is consistent with a period of protracted convergent tectonism.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2025

ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most likely to achieve this goal in large‐magnitude earthquakes. In recent years, ShakeAlert has gone through a series of upgrades to its underlying scientific algorithms aimed at improved performance during large earthquakes. Version 3 of this software recently went live in the production system and includes improvements to all algorithms. The main seismic algorithms that detect an earthquake and characterize its location, magnitude, and fault rupture orientation are faster than older versions. Other key changes include: using real‐time geodetic data to characterize the magnitude growth in large earthquakes; the introduction of an alert pause procedure to compromise between speed near the epicenter and improved accuracy at larger distances; and the inclusion of a nonergodic site‐response model in the ground‐motion predictions. ShakeAlert has achieved its primary goal of usable warning times before strong shaking at some locations in real‐time operations in recent M 6 earthquakes. Using offline tests, we demonstrate usable warning times are possible for many sites with peak shaking values of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 7–8 in M 7+ earthquakes and also for many MMI 8–9 sites in M 8+ earthquakes. ShakeAlert partners use a variety of MMI and magnitude thresholds in deciding when to alert their users within bounds set by the USGS. Our study shows that there is room to raise the magnitude thresholds up to about M 5.5 without adversely affecting performance in large earthquakes. The ground‐motion criteria are more complex owing to a significant drop‐off in warning times between the MMI 4 and 5 levels of predicted shaking. However, widely used ShakeAlert products, such as the MMI 3 and 4 contour products, can provide sufficiently long warning times before strong shaking in moderate‐to‐great earthquakes to enable a range of protective actions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2025

Base-flow sampling to enhance understanding of the groundwater flow component of nitrogen loading in small watersheds draining into Long Island Sound

Excessive nitrogen discharge is a major concern for the Long Island Sound. Programs have been implemented to reduce point sources of nitrogen to the sound, but little is known about the nonpoint sources. This study aims to better understand the current groundwater contributions of nitrogen from nonpoint sources in the Long Island Sound watershed. During the spring and summer of 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, collected water-quality samples to analyze nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), chloride, and bromide at 45 stations in the Long Island Sound watershed in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island. The stations were in small drainage watersheds (5 to 30 square kilometers) in the southern part of the Long Island Sound watershed. During two separate synoptic sampling events, water-quality samples and instantaneous streamflow measurements were collected under base-flow conditions (where the streamflow is dominated by groundwater inputs rather than overland flow or runoff flow). One sampling event was in the nongrowing season (April 24–25, 2022), and the other was in the growing season (June 30–July 1, 2022). To calculate instantaneous nitrogen loads and yields, streamflow was measured at the time of sample collection. Nitrogen concentrations, loads, and yields varied among sampling stations and by season. Total filtered nitrogen concentrations were generally lower in the nongrowing season (from less than 0.14 to 1.9 milligrams per liter) than in the growing season (from less than 0.23 to 3.0 milligrams per liter). Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations showed little variation between the nongrowing and growing seasons. Unfiltered ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations were generally lower in the nongrowing season (from less than 0.07 to 0.83 milligram per liter) than in the growing season (from 0.11 to 0.98 milligram per liter). In contrast, total filtered and unfiltered nitrogen loads and yields were higher in the nongrowing season than during the growing season, likely because streamflows were higher during the nongrowing season. Total unfiltered nitrogen yields during the nongrowing season ranged from less than 0.15 to 5.0 kilograms per square kilometer per day. Total unfiltered nitrogen yields during the growing season ranged from less than 0.12 to 2.5 kilograms per square kilometer per day. Total filtered nitrogen yields during the nongrowing season ranged from less than 0.13 to 5.2 kilograms per square kilometer per day. Total filtered nitrogen yields during the growing season ranged from less than 0.06 to 2.5 kilograms per square kilometer per day.

Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island↗

USGS2026

Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme—A transdisciplinary approach to address the challenge of distributed volcanism in an urban environment

The Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme was launched in 2008 to address the challenges associated with monogenetic volcanism in an urban setting and to enhance volcanic risk management in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland in Aotearoa New Zealand. It is a multi-agency, increasingly transdisciplinary (defined here as research that transcends traditional disciplinary boundaries by integrating diverse types of knowledge, perspectives, and methods from academic and non-academic participants to create novel solutions to complex problems), and collaborative research program jointly led by Waipapa Taumata Rau University of Auckland and Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ; formerly GNS Science), with core funding from Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC; formerly the Earthquake Commission, EQC) and Te Kaunihera o Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland Council (AC). The primary research focus of DEVORA is to investigate the geologic history, volcanic hazards, and risk posed by the basaltic intraplate Auckland Volcanic Field. Disruption from ash fall and gas from other Aotearoa New Zealand volcanoes is also considered. DEVORA’s work to explore exposure and vulnerability in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland is also useful for assessing risks from other non-volcanic natural hazards, such as seismic and tsunami hazards. The greater Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland region has an ethnically and socio-economically diverse population of approximately 1.7 million, representing about one-third of the Aotearoa New Zealand population, and hosts critical infrastructure of national significance. The size and nature of the populace, consequential economic base, and important infrastructure within Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland mean that the effects of a volcanic eruption would be felt nationally, including through the disruption of air travel to Aotearoa New Zealand. The hazards from such an eruption could potentially affect hundreds of thousands of people, businesses, and lifelines (critical infrastructure). A considerable challenge for emergency and risk managers is the monogenetic nature of the volcanic field. It is not known where or when the next eruption will occur, how much warning we may get before an eruption, nor how an eruption and its effects might unfold. In this contribution, we highlight the concept and collaborative intent of the DEVORA Programme and show how it has evolved over the 16 years since its inception. We describe how DEVORA has unified more than 100 researchers (including more than 50 graduate students) and numerous stakeholders to address key issues facing Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland and describe how research findings are being implemented into policy and communicated to stakeholder agencies and the public. We also illustrate the broader influence of the DEVORA Programme and provide some learnings that might benefit others embarking on similar integrated projects, especially those focused on distributed volcanism in and near populated areas.

Auckland↗

USGS2026

Precipitation-based flood-inundation maps for the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries at Lee’s Summit, Missouri, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, assessed flooding of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries for varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, varying antecedent runoff conditions, and projected climate-change conditions. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps for a 2.95-mile reach of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries within the city. A two-dimensional U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; ver. 6.5) rain-on-grid model was calibrated to selected runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. Lowest adjacent grades for structures within the nearby study area were incorporated into the terrain, and depth grids and water-surface elevation grids were developed for the study area. Simulated velocities at selected bridge locations were also developed from the model. The model was calibrated using water-surface elevation data collected from water-level loggers (pressure transducers) and streamflow measurements and water-surface elevation measurements made at a reference point during runoff events. The calibrated HEC–RAS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 15-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability (1-year to 1,000-year recurrence intervals). Flood-inundation maps were produced for depths at a reference location of 3 to 16 feet, or a depth exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 1-foot-increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location. Within the HEC–RAS model, 240 scenarios were developed from the design rainfall events with each of 3 antecedent conditions. Additional scenarios were created to simulate the effects of projected precipitation scenarios on the 100-year recurrence interval, 24-hour storm and the 100-year recurrence interval, 6-hour storm. All simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location. The flood-inundation maps are shown on a web mapping application made available to the public through the City of Lee’s Summit (hyperlink will be added when available). The flood-inundation maps are tied to real-time precipitation data obtained from the Automated Surface Observing System weather station at the Lee’s Summit Municipal Airport, accessible at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MO_ASOS . The availability of these maps, along with information regarding observed rainfall, could help provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2025

Cancer risk and estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater in the US

Importance Lithium is a naturally occurring element in drinking water and is commonly used as a mood-stabilizing medication. Although clinical studies have reported associations between receiving lithium treatment and reduced cancer risk among patients with bipolar disorder, to our knowledge, the association between environmental lithium exposure and cancer risk has never been studied in the general population. Objectives To evaluate the association between exposure to lithium in drinking groundwater and cancer risk in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study included participants with electronic health record and residential address information but without cancer history at baseline from the All of Us Research Program between May 31, 2017, and June 30, 2022. Participants were followed up until February 15, 2023. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2023 through October 2024. Exposure Lithium concentration in groundwater, based on kriging interpolation of publicly available US Geological Survey data on lithium concentration for 4700 wells across the contiguous US between May 12, 1999, and November 6, 2018. Main Outcome and Measures The main outcome was cancer diagnosis or condition, obtained from electronic health records. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for risk of cancer overall and individual cancer types for increasing quintiles of the estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater, adjusting for socioeconomic, behavioral, and neighborhood-level variables. The analysis was further conducted in the western and eastern halves of the US and restricted to long-term residents living at their current address for at least 3 years. Results A total of 252 178 participants were included (median age, 52 years [IQR, 36-64 years]; 60.1% female). The median follow-up time was 3.6 years (IQR, 3.0-4.3 years), and 7573 incident cancer cases were identified. Higher estimated lithium exposure was consistently associated with reduced cancer risk. Compared with the first (lowest) quintile of lithium exposure, the HR for all cancers was 0.49 (95% CI, 0.31-0.78) for the fourth quintile and 0.29 (95% CI, 0.15-0.55) for the fifth quintile. These associations were found for all cancer types investigated in both females and males, among long-term residents, and in both western and eastern states. For example, for the fifth vs first quintile of lithium exposure for all cancers, the HR was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.07-0.42) in females and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.38) in males; for long-term residents, the HR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.15-0.66) in females and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.52) in males; and the HR was 0.01 (95% CI, 0.00-0.09) in western states and 0.34 (95% CI, 0.21-0.57) in eastern states. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of 252 178 participants, estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater was associated with reduced cancer risk. Given the sparse evidence and unknown mechanisms of this association, follow-up investigation is warranted.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2026

Lunar analog study using portable gamma-ray neutron detector: Radiochemical mapping of silicic-to-basaltic volcanic terrains in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona

Studying lunar silicic volcanism provides key insights into the Moon’s crustal evolution, magmatic processes, and volcanic history. The Lunar-VISE (Lunar Vulkan Imaging and Spectroscopy Explorer) mission will investigate the Gruithuisen domes, a unique lunar region hypothesized to have formed through silicic volcanism. Using instruments on a Firefly Aerospace lander and a Honeybee Robotics rover, Lunar-VISE will analyze mineralogy, geochemistry, and surface properties to determine the origin and evolution of the domes, with a gamma-ray and neutron spectrometer (LV-GRNS) among its payload instruments. In preparation for this mission, we conducted preliminary fieldwork using a handheld gamma-ray neutron detector with NaI(Tl) and Cs LiYCl :Ce (CLYC) scintillators. This study focuses on various rhyolitic and basaltic volcanic centers in the San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF) near Flagstaff, Arizona—specifically Sugarloaf Peak, Bonito Lava Flow, and Robinson Mountain, a region containing several well-characterized lunar analog sites. The SFVF was selected for this study due to its broad compositional diversity spanning basaltic to rhyolitic compositions, its well-preserved volcanic morphologies, and its extensive use in previous NASA field campaigns and astronaut training exercises, making it an ideal terrestrial laboratory for testing planetary exploration techniques. We measured natural radioactivity, specifically from potassium (K), thorium (Th), and uranium (U) and other elements in their decay chains, which serve as diagnostic tracers of magmatic differentiation and crustal evolution processes, to assess geochemical variability across compositionally diverse terrains. The detector’s sensitivity was assessed across varying concentration levels. Regionally averaged concentrations of radioisotopes were determined by gamma-ray spectroscopy at selected sites. Our measurements reveal significant compositional variations between sites, with Sugarloaf Peak (rhyolitic, silicic dome) exhibiting the highest average radioisotope concentrations (K: 3.29 ± 0.24 wt%, U: 14.35 ± 1.81 ppm, Th: 27.14 ± 2.43 ppm), while Bonito Lava Flow (K: 1.13 ± 0.08 wt%, U: 3.86 ± 0.52 ppm, Th: 7.52 ± 1.02 ppm), and Robinson Mountain (K: 1.46 ± 0.16 wt%, U: 5.59 ± 1.06 ppm, Th: 11.75 ± 1.98 ppm) show lower concentrations aligned with basaltic compositions. Gamma-ray fluxes were elevated by a factor of approximately three to four at Sugarloaf Peak relative to nearby basaltic terrains, consistent with expected geochemical differentiation patterns. Furthermore, at meter scales, proximity to geological features significantly affects measurements. Th concentrations adjacent to a cliff face at Sugarloaf’s base were 28% higher than values measured 3-5 meters away from the same feature, demonstrating localized compositional heterogeneity. Analysis of station-by-station measurements reveals that K, U, and Th concentrations show an elevation trend at Robinson Mountain and generally higher concentrations near Sugarloaf Peak’s summit, suggesting progressive magmatic differentiation and/or the presence of more evolved lithologies at higher elevations. By mapping these elements on Earth using GRNS, we aim to optimize measurement techniques for Lunar-VISE and similar rover-borne missions by demonstrating the applicability of portable GRNS instruments for planetary surface exploration in an analog environment.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories. The 2018 NSHM is adopted by the 2024 International Building Code (IBC). Prior to the 2018 NSHM update, hazard calculations were required only at one reference site condition defined by V S30 =760 m/s (where V S30 is the time-averaged shear wave velocity from the surface to a depth of 30 m) and three periods (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and pseudo spectral accelerations at periods of 0.2 and 1 s, S s and S 1 ). Site coefficients, F PGA , F a , and F v , were then defined by the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) Provisions Update Committee (PUC) in the site-specific procedures of National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions to calculate ground motions for other site classes with different V S30 values at the given periods. The design ground motions at other periods were then estimated using a generic spectral shape that was also defined by the BSSC PUC in NEHRP provisions. In recent years, the engineering community has realized there were deficiencies with the F a and F v site coefficients and the generic spectral shape. To avoid potentially dangerous underestimations of design ground motions for long period structures on soft site conditions in high seismicity regions, the BSSC PUC recommended the use of multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in 2017. As a result, the USGS produced multi-period and multi-V S30 response spectral values in the 2018 NSHM for calculations of design ground motions and the site coefficients F a and F v were eliminated from the 2020 NEHRP Provisions. As these site coefficients were widely used inside and outside of the United States, in this study we back-calculate the “effective” site coefficients F a,eff , and F v,eff by comparing MPRS for various site classes with the MPRS for the reference site condition, and discuss the changes that are observed in the 2024 IBC compared to its previous version in 2021. The effective site coefficients are presented for test site locations and their dependence on various factors including period, ground motion intensity, and regional models are discussed. Ratio maps between the new effective site coefficients and the old ones are then presented for soft site classes and for short and long periods. For soft site classes at short periods, the new effective site coefficients are lower than the old site coefficients for high seismicity regions and higher for low seismicity regions. As it was expected, for soft site classes at long periods and high seismicity regions, the new effective site coefficients are much larger than the old site coefficients without imposing the 50% increase as a penalty that was suggested in the 2021 IBC, whereas they could be much smaller if the 50% increase would have been imposed particularly around New Madrid and Charleston high seismicity regions. For low seismicity regions, the long period effective site coefficients can be smaller or larger by 20% compared to the 2021 IBC coefficients.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Refining the earthquake history of south-central Alaska through lake records

The Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ) is one of the world's most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska earthquake–the second largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Understanding the nature and frequency of such earthquakes is necessary for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, but instrumental and historical records that span less than 150 years are too short to allow a statistically reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence times. This calls for studies of evidence of past earthquakes, extending the earthquake catalog further back in time. Subduction-zone paleoseismology in south-central Alaska is predominantly based on coastal evidence of land-level changes and tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and preserved in the geological record. A complementary approach is lacustrine paleoseismology, which is still a relatively young discipline in Alaska. However, globally, lake basins are well-established high-resolution and continuous recorders of paleoseismic activity along subduction zones, relying on the identification of underwater landslide deposits and turbidites generated by seismic shaking. As a result, lake basins not only register ground shaking from megathrust earthquakes, but also from intraslab and crustal earthquakes, which are typically not accompanied by significant land-level changes. In this review paper, we combine coastal and lacustrine paleoseismology approaches to refine the south-central Alaskan earthquake history by comparing the paleoseismic records from two lakes (i.e., Eklutna Lake, located in the Chugach Mountain Range, and Skilak Lake, situated on the Kenai Peninsula) with the coastal and crustal earthquake catalog in Alaska. The resulting age ranges of all known megathrust earthquakes involving the Alaskan megathrust between the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) sections are more precise and accurate for the last 1.3 kyrs BP than the previously published age ranges from coastal records. As a result, this study supports the following key conclusions: (1) The 1964 CE earthquake was an exceptionally strong and unique event in the last 2000 years, rupturing the PWS, Kenai, Barren Islands, and Kodiak sections simultaneously. (2) The high-resolution and seasonal markings of the varved lake records now disentangle for the first time closely timed earthquakes, which was not possible based on the coastal evidence alone. (3) No persistent megathrust rupture boundaries exist. So, the possibility of a full rupture of the entire eastern AASZ, from PWS to Semidi cannot be excluded. (4) The rupture pattern in the eastern AASZ reveals superimposed cycles of multi-asperity ruptures (1964 earthquake) and clustered complementary partial ruptures, or rupture cascades. (5) The PWS section hosts the largest asperity in the eastern AASZ. (6) The shaking record of megathrust earthquakes indicates a time-dependent (quasiperiodic) behavior for the study area, but the observation of complementary clusters means that the hazards will not drop to zero but instead may even increase for a neighboring section. (7) The time-independent behavior of intraplate earthquakes implies that the intraslab hazard did not decrease following the 2016 and 2018 earthquakes. This study utilizes an integrated approach for subduction zone paleoseismology as a solution for unraveling recurrence and rupture patterns in Alaska, which can be applied worldwide.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Status of water-level altitudes and long-term and short-term water-level changes in the Chicot and Evangeline (undifferentiated) and Jasper aquifers, greater Houston area, Texas, 2023

Since the early 1900s, groundwater withdrawn from the primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers—has been an important source of water in the greater Houston area, Texas. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of water-level altitudes and water-level changes in these aquifers in the greater Houston area. In this report, the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers are treated as a single aquifer for the purposes of providing annual assessments of regional-scale water-level altitudes and water-level changes over time. In 2023, shaded depictions of water-level altitudes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers (undifferentiated) ranged from about 286 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) to about 169 ft above NAVD 88. The largest decline in water-level altitudes indicated by the 1977–2023 long-term water-level-change map was in south-central Montgomery County southeast of The Woodlands. In comparison, the 1990–2023 long-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines in water-level altitudes in localized areas at or near certain wells in parts of northwestern Harris County and south-central Montgomery County. The largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1977–2023 is depicted in a relatively large area in southeastern Harris County, whereas the largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1990–2023 is depicted in a relatively large area in central Harris County. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at three wells in northern Fort Bend County, one well in western Harris County, and three wells in south-central Montgomery County and the largest rise at one well in central Harris County. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at one well in northern Fort Bend County and two wells in southwestern Harris County and the largest rises at one well in northern Brazoria County and one well in south-central Montgomery County. In 2023, shaded depictions of water-level altitudes for the Jasper aquifer ranged from about 242 ft below NAVD 88 to about 218 ft above NAVD 88. The 2000–23 long-term water-level-change map depicts water-level declines throughout the study area where water-level-measurement data from the aquifer were collected, with the largest declines in north-central Harris County and south-central Montgomery County south of The Woodlands. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at two wells in central Montgomery County near Conroe and two wells in south-central Montgomery County southeast of The Woodlands and the largest rise at one well in western Montgomery County. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at four wells in south-central Montgomery County southeast of The Woodlands and one well in central Montgomery County near Conroe and the largest rises at two wells in western Montgomery County.

Texas↗

USGS2024

Groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Lower Duwamish Waterway, Seattle, Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), conducted a study to describe the current understanding of the regional groundwater system of the lower Duwamish River valley and groundwater and surface-water interactions in the lower Duwamish Waterway. The lower Duwamish Waterway is the final 5-mile (mi) reach of the Duwamish River before it empties into Elliott Bay in Puget Sound near Seattle, Washington. A nearshore site (hereinafter referred to as “Nearshore Site” to distinguish the particular site from general discussions of nearshore areas) along the western shoreline of the Duwamish River, about 1.5 mi upstream from the river mouth, was selected for focused groundwater data collection by USGS. Data loggers were deployed in seven groundwater wells and one stilling well in the Duwamish River to measure specific conductance, temperature, and depth at 15-minute intervals for a period of about 2 years. At the Nearshore Site during 2020–22, water levels in the shallow wells were 3–8 feet (ft) higher than water levels in the deep wells, providing evidence for a low-permeability layer between the shallow and deep aquifers in this area. The shallow wells had a pronounced seasonal variability, with high water levels in winter and low water levels in summer. Data from the deep wells showed far less seasonal variability, with slight increases in winter and a near-constant water level from spring to autumn. The deep wells had a strong hydraulic connection to the Duwamish River, as evidenced by the synchronous water-level variability during the tidal cycle, whereas the shallow wells had minimal to no tidal response. The potentiometric maps developed for the Nearshore Site and surrounding areas indicate large differences in groundwater-flow directions for the shallow and deep aquifers at low and high tides. For the shallow aquifer, flow is toward the lower Duwamish Waterway near the Nearshore Site, regardless of the tidal condition. For the deep aquifer, a potentiometric trough forms parallel to the shoreline during high tide, indicating that groundwater flow converges from the uplands to the west and the Duwamish River to the east. The geometry of the potentiometric surfaces between the nearshore-most well and the shoreline is complex and is further confounded by intermittent shoreline armoring and other buried infrastructure, which could serve as either a barrier or a conduit to flow. Groundwater and surface-water interactions in the lower Duwamish Waterway are inherently complex as a result of three overarching factors. First, water levels in the lower reaches of the Duwamish River vary daily by 11–16 ft because of tides from Puget Sound, which create large swings in the hydraulic gradient in the nearshore groundwater system. Second, the density and chemical composition of water in the Duwamish River change daily with the tides and seasonally, which constrains how river water entering the nearshore sediments interacts with discharging groundwater. Third, the nearshore subsurface and shoreline conditions are heterogenous because of extensive shoreline armoring over the past century, which governs the flow of groundwater and infiltrating river water. These unique features of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the lower Duwamish Waterway thus govern the transport of terrestrial contaminants to the lower Duwamish Waterway. Furthermore, the heterogenous aquifer properties in the lower Duwamish Waterway contribute to spatially and temporally dynamic contaminant-transport processes.

Washington↗

USGS2026

Arsenic and isotope concentrations in the lower Platte River valley of eastern Nebraska, early 1970s to 2023

The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, has been monitoring concentrations of arsenic in their source water and evaluating their options for treatment and removal since at least 2002. In 2022, the City of Lincoln, Nebr., with funding assistance from the Nebraska Water Sustainability Fund, began cooperating with the U.S. Geological Survey to examine arsenic concentrations in surface water and groundwater in the lower Platte River valley and the area around City of Lincoln Water System (LWS) well field. Arsenic data collected from the Platte River since 1974 were examined using the “weighted regression on time, discharge, and season” model, which compared the streamflow (also referred to as “discharge”), time of year, and season to estimate concentrations of arsenic. Annual mean arsenic concentrations modeled for more than 49 years at the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., U.S. Geological Survey streamgage (station 06805500), indicated a significant increasing trend. Arsenic concentrations in the Platte River were seasonal, with the highest concentrations being observed during mid- to late summer. When seasonal patterns and streamflow were combined with arsenic concentrations in the Platte River during low streamflow conditions, groundwater contributions, which can have higher arsenic concentrations, make up a larger portion of the streamflow. Arsenic samples were collected from upstream rivers in 2022 and 2023 and were paired to analyze the arsenic contributions at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr. (station 06801000), near the City of Lincoln well field. The arsenic concentrations from the streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr., location, were higher than the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. (station 06800500), and significantly lower than at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr.(station 06796500), indicating that the Platte River usually contributes a higher concentration of arsenic than does the Elkhorn River as they join near Ashland, Nebr. During 1991–2023, six groundwater monitoring wells were analyzed to identify trends in arsenic concentrations. Two of the six wells had a positive trend during the 33-year period. One monitoring well did not reveal a long-term trend during this period but showed a trend during 2019–23, correlating to a period when the island in the middle of the Platte River was connected to the east bank of the river when manganese reducing conditions were present and groundwater levels were declining in the well. Across all wells the oxidation and reduction (redox) condition during the time of sampling was assessed. Mixed anoxic and (or) oxic redox condition was the most common redox process and the highest sampled arsenic concentrations in monitoring wells were observed in anoxic conditions driven by manganese reduction. Groundwater arsenic concentrations had seasonal variation around the City of Lincoln well field, with higher arsenic concentrations tending to be further south in comparison to samples collected further north. Isotope samples were collected and analyzed in surface water and groundwater around the LWS well field. The samples indicate that the proportion of surface water present in the LWS production wells can be higher in the spring and lower in the summer. With higher arsenic concentrations observed in the stream water during the summer period, the LWS source water can be affected by these elevated arsenic concentrations even though the proportion of surface water is lower.

Nebraska↗