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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources
USGS2012

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2011

Sea otter abundance in Kenai Fjords national Park: Results from the 2010 aerial survey

A sea otter aerial survey was completed in Kenai Fjords National Park (KEFJ) during June of 2010. This was the third aerial survey completed since 2002 along the Kenai Peninsula, the second specifically conducted within KEFJ. Survey methodology followed the Bodkin and Udevitz (1999) method which accounts for imperfect detection. The survey took two days to complete. The estimated sea otter population for KEFJ is 1322 individuals, with an overall density of 0.89/km2 . The 2010 population estimate is similar to that of 2007 (1511 individuals, 1.02/km2 ). Sea otters were not uniformly distributed along the coastline. Higher concentrations of sea otters were found near Sandy Bay, James Lagoon, along the moraine crossing McCarty Fjord, Nuka Bay and Nuka Island. All observed otters were in the high density stratum, defined as the 0 m to 40 m depth contour and minimum distances from shore, while no sea otters were observed in the low density stratum, which is defined as the area within the 40m to 100 m depth contour. We recommend that prior to the next aerial sea otter survey in KEFJ (scheduled for 2013), a power simulation be conducted to evaluate methods to improve precision of estimates and the ability to detect change.

Alaska↗
USGS2003

Survival of female Lesser Scaup: Effects of body size, age, and reproductive effort

In birds, larger females generally have greater breeding propensity, reproductive investment, and success than do smaller females. However, optimal female body size also depends on how natural selection acts during other parts of the life cycle. Larger female Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) produce larger eggs than do smaller females, and ducklings from larger eggs survive better than those hatching from smaller eggs. Accordingly, we examined patterns of apparent annual survival for female scaup and tested whether natural selection on female body size primarily was stabilizing, a frequent assumption in studies of sexually dimorphic species in which males are the larger sex, or was directional, counter-acting reproductive advantages of large size . We estimated survival using mark-recapture methods for individually marked females from two study sites in Canada (Erickson, Manitoba; St. Denis, Saskatchewan). Structurally larger (adults) and heavier (ducklings) females had lower survival than did smaller individuals in Manitoba; no relationship was detected in adults from Saskatchewan. Survival of adult females declined with indices of increasing reproductive effort at both sites; consequently, the cost of reproduction could explain age -related patterns of breeding propensity in scaup . Furthermore, if larger females are more likely to breed than are smaller females, then cost of reproduction also may help explain why survival was lower for larger females. Overall, we found that advantages of large body size of female scaup during breeding or as young ducklings apparently were counteracted by natural selection favoring lightweight juveniles and structurally smaller adult females through higher annual survival .

Condor↗
USGS2018

Development of an aerial population survey method for elk (Cervus elaphus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Executive Summary Since the early 1990s, substantial effort and funding have been expended to conduct research to guide development of a 20-year Elk and Vegetation Management Plan for Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in Colorado. One goal of the plan is to maintain the elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population size at the lower end of the natural range of variation. To implement management actions called for in the plan, accurate and reliable population estimates are needed, as well as a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of elk. The previous aerial survey protocol and population estimation model used by the park had not been updated since the model’s initial calibration more than 15 years ago and the model was developed with an insufficient number (n=44) of observations. Thus we initiated research to reevaluate, update, and improve elk population estimation protocols for RMNP. We considered several alternative survey and analysis methods, and concluded that a hybrid population-estimation model using a simultaneous double-observer technique with sighting covariates was the most appropriate and effective aerial survey methodology for this population and the environmental conditions in RMNP. Instructional protocols for conducting these surveys in the future, along with datasheets, are provided in this report’s appendixes. To develop an improved method for aerial elk surveys, we used elk radio-collar location data from our study and other studies, and applied geographic information system analyses to define the survey area and develop effective, repeatable survey transect lines. We used telemetry data from radio-collared elk to inform our understanding of the temporal and spatial scale of elk movements across the park boundary, elk use of tree cover during potential survey hours, and elk use of different elevations within their range. Determining where elk were during surveys helped to fine-tune a survey design that improved spatial cover-age and decreased costs where possible, while standardizing the method to make it repeatable from year to year. We conducted aerial helicopter surveys to test our methodology in an adaptive, iterative process during three winters: 2007–2008, 2008–2009, and 2009–2010. We gained new information on each survey and used results to refine subsequent surveys. Our results confirm that elk movements were highly dynamic with respect to park boundary crossings; an average of six round trips from the park to Estes Park, Colorado, and back per month were taken by global positioning system-collared bull elk. We observed a strong diurnal temporal pattern of bull elk use of trees; elk were found in dense tree cover from 15:00−22:00 but not as often during morning and early afternoon hours when surveys were conducted. We used information on elk use of different altitudes to refine and establish a more efficient survey area. During the time of our study, a concurrent study in the park deployed 120 very high frequency radio collars on elk cows. We used those collar locations during our flights to increase sample size and to evaluate the level of precision we would gain by using “known fates analysis” (in which elk were known to be in the survey area, out of the survey area, or deceased based on radio-collar locations collected simultaneously during aerial surveys). Using radio-collar locations reduced bias by 1.1–8.8 percent and increased precision (that is, reduced the width of confidence intervals). This report provides final population estimates analyzed with and without radio-collar data to demonstrate what is gained by using marked individuals.

Colorado↗
USGS2000

Test functions for three-dimensional control-volume mixed finite-element methods on irregular grids

Numerical methods based on unstructured grids, with irregular cells, usually require discrete shape functions to approximate the distribution of quantities across cells. For control-volume mixed finite-element methods, vector shape functions are used to approximate the distribution of velocities across cells and vector test functions are used to minimize the error associated with the numerical approximation scheme. For a logically cubic mesh, the lowest-order shape functions are chosen in a natural way to conserve intercell fluxes that vary linearly in logical space. Vector test functions, while somewhat restricted by the mapping into the logical reference cube, admit a wider class of possibilities. Ideally, an error minimization procedure to select the test function from an acceptable class of candidates would be the best procedure. Lacking such a procedure, we first investigate the effect of possible test functions on the pressure distribution over the control volume; specifically, we look for test functions that allow for the elimination of intermediate pressures on cell faces. From these results, we select three forms for the test function for use in a control-volume mixed method code and subject them to an error analysis for different forms of grid irregularity; errors are reported in terms of the discrete L2 norm of the velocity error. Of these three forms, one appears to produce optimal results for most forms of grid irregularity.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Measurement of dissolved organic matter fluorescense in aquatic environments: An interlaboratory comparison

The fluorescent properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) are often studied in order to infer DOM characteristics in aquatic environments, including source, quantity, composition, and behavior. While a potentially powerful technique, a single widely implemented standard method for correcting and presenting fluorescence measurements is lacking, leading to difficulties when comparing data collected by different research groups. This paper reports on a large-scale interlaboratory comparison in which natural samples and well-characterized fluorophores were analyzed in 20 laboratories in the U.S., Europe, and Australia. Shortcomings were evident in several areas, including data quality-assurance, the accuracy of spectral correction factors used to correct EEMs, and the treatment of optically dense samples. Data corrected by participants according to individual laboratory procedures were more variable than when corrected under a standard protocol. Wavelength dependency in measurement precision and accuracy were observed within and between instruments, even in corrected data. In an effort to reduce future occurrences of similar problems, algorithms for correcting and calibrating EEMs are described in detail, and MATLAB scripts for implementing the study's protocol are provided. Combined with the recent expansion of spectral fluorescence standards, this approach will serve to increase the intercomparability of DOM fluorescence studies.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2015

A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States

Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics, and progression of invasive species. Routine monitoring of changes in centroid will provide useful insights into long-term avian responses to environmental changes.

Ecography↗
USGS2024

Recent advances in characterizing the crustal stress field and future applications of stress data: Perspectives from North America

The stress field controls patterns of crustal deformation, including which faults are likeliest to cause earthquakes or transmit fluids. Since the 1950s, maps of maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientations have advanced dramatically, and the style of faulting (relative principal stress magnitudes) has recently been mapped in some regions as well. This perspectives paper summarizes developments in characterizing stress orientations and (relative) magnitudes, including new seismic and borehole methods, as well as progress in identifying the causes of stress variations. Despite these advances, adding far more spatiotemporal detail would allow geoscientists to address many of today's key challenges regarding natural hazards, energy development, and geodynamics. In particular, it is critically important to characterize stress heterogeneity at multiple scales while also recognizing the coherent variability of the stress field. The second part of the paper considers how more detailed stress datasets could prove essential to addressing some of the grand questions in geoscience, including deciphering the poorly understood feedbacks between crustal dynamics and surface processes, improving earthquake and eruption forecasts, and determining the origins and shared properties of plate boundaries.

Geological Society, London, Special Publications↗
USGS1996

Uncertainty and instream flow standards

Several years ago, Science published an important essay (Ludwig et al. 1993) on the need to confront the scientific uncertainty associated with managing natural resources. The essay did not discuss instream flow standards explicitly, but its arguments apply. At an April 1995 workshop in Davis, California, all 12 participants agreed that currently no scientifically defensible method exists for defining the instream flows needed to protect particular species of fish or aquatic ecosystems (Williams, in press). We also agreed that acknowledging this fact is an essential step in dealing rationally and effectively with the problem. Practical necessity and the protection of fishery resources require that new instream flow standards be established and that existing standards be revised. However, if standards cannot be defined scientifically, how can this be done? We join others in recommending the approach of adaptive management. Applied to instream flow standards, this approach involves at least three elements.

Fisheries↗
USGS2004

Evaluation of ultrastructure and random effects band recovery models for estimating relationships between survival and harvest rates in exploited populations

Increased population survival rate after an episode of seasonal exploitation is considered a type of compensatory population response. Lack of an increase is interpreted as evidence that exploitation results in added annual mortality in the population. Despite its importance to management of exploited species, there are limited statistical techniques for comparing relative support for these two alternative models. For exploited bird species, the most common technique is to use a fixed effect, deterministic ultrastructure model incorporated into band recovery models to estimate the relationship between harvest and survival rate. We present a new likelihood-based technique within a framework that assumes that survival and harvest are random effects that covary through time. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study under this framework to evaluate the performance of these two techniques. The ultrastructure models performed poorly in all simulated scenarios, due mainly to pathological distributional properties. The random effects estimators and their associated estimators of precision had relatively small negative bias under most scenarios, and profile likelihood intervals achieved nominal coverage. We suggest that the random effects estimation method approach has many advantages compared to the ultrastructure models, and that evaluation of robustness and generalization to more complex population structures are topics for additional research. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

Animal Biodiversity and Conservation↗
USGS2007

Mangrove removal in the belize cays: effects on mangrove-associated fish assemblages in the intertidal and subtidal

We investigated the effects of mangrove cutting on fish assemblages in Twin Cays, Belize, in two habitat types. We conducted visual censuses at two sites in adjoining undisturbed/disturbed (30%–70% of shoreline fringe removed) sub-tidal fringing Rhizophora mangle Linnaeus, 1753. Observers recorded significantly more species and individuals in undisturbed sites, especially among smaller, schooling species (e.g., atherinids, clupeids), where densities were up to 200 times greater in undisturbed habitat. Multivariate analyses showed distinct species assemblages between habitats at both sites. In addition, extensive trapping with wire minnow traps within the intertidal zone in both undisturbed and disturbed fringing and transition (landward) mangrove forests was conducted. Catch rates were low: 638 individuals from 24 species over 563 trap-nights. Trap data, however, indicated that mangrove disturbance had minimal effect on species composition in either forest type (fringe/transition). Different results from the two methods (and habitat types) may be explained by two factors: (1) a larger and more detectable species pool in the subtidal habitat, with visual "access" to all species, and (2) the selective nature of trapping. Our data indicate that even partial clearing of shoreline and more landward mangroves can have a significant impact on local fish assemblages.

Twin Cays↗
USGS1987

Instream water use in the United States: water laws and methods for determining flow requirements

Water use generally is divided into two primary classes - offstream use and instream use. In offstream use, sometimes called out-of-stream or diversionary use, water is withdrawn (diverted) from a stream or aquifer and transported to the place of use. Examples are irrigated agriculture, municipal water supply, and industrial use. Each of these offstream uses, which decreases the volume of water available downstream from the point of diversion, is discussed in previous articles in this volume. Instream use, which generally does not diminish the flow downstream from its point of use, and its importance are described in this article. One of the earliest instream uses of water in the United States was to turn the water wheels that powered much of the Nation's industry in the 18th and 19th centuries. Although a small volume of water might have been diverted to a mill near streamside, that water usually was returned to the stream near the point of diversion and, thus, the flow was not diminished downstream from the mill. Over time, the generation of hydroelectric power replaced mill wheels as a means of converting water flow into energy. Since the 1920's, the generation of hydroelectric power increasingly has become a major instream use of water. By 1985, more than 3 billion acre-feet of water (3,050,000 million gallons per day) was used annually for hydropower generation (Solley and others, 1988, p. 45)-enough water to cover the State of Colorado to a depth of 51 feet. Navigation is another instream use with a long history. The Lewis and Clark expedition journals and many of Mark Twain's novels illustrate the extent to which the Nation originally depended on adequate streamfiows for basic transportation. Navigation in the 1980's is still considered to be an instream use; however, it often is based upon a stream system that has been modified greatly through channelization, diking, and construction of dams and locks. The present (1987) inland water navigation system in the conterminous United States consists of about 12,000 miles of maintained waterways, over which about 500 million tons of cargo is carried each year (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1988, p. 16). Although not so widely practiced in recent years, streams have been used to dispose of raw waste products from homes, communities, and factories. This use has been discouraged by law and public policy because of public health concerns and the damage it causes to the environment. Beginning in the mid-1960's, other instream uses gained new prominence in the water-resources arena-the assertion of a legal right to a free-flowing stream for biological, recreational, and esthetic purposes. These uses themselves, however, are not new. Riverine habitat always has produced fish, and the beauty of flowing water always has evoked a strong sense of esthetic appreciation. What is new is the emerging legitimacy and awareness of these noneconomic uses under State and Federal laws and regulations. In the past, environmental uses of flowing water were ignored, for the most part, under a long-standing legal tradition that favored offstream uses and certain instream uses that had a strong economic basis. The history of instream-flow policy debate really concerns those recently recognized types of interim uses. Although the more transitional water uses have been protected by law, the recognition of other in stream uses has resulted in substantial changes in State water laws. Although methods for determining the volume of water needed for most traditional water uses are relatively straight-forward and well-established, methods for determining water requirements for the in stream uses have been developed only recently and are continuing to evolve. Water laws that have favored the more traditional water uses, the inherent nature of conflict between instream and offstream water uses, and the special kinds of technological and philosophical problems posed by the "newer" types of instream uses are described below. Water laws that have been passed to accommodate the more recently recognized instream uses are summarized.

Report↗
USGS1977

A method for adjusting values of Manning's roughness coefficient for flooded urban areas

A method is presented for adjusting values of Manning's roughness coefficient for flooded urban areas on the basis of the density of buildings on a flood plain and verified roughness coefficients for natural conditions. An urban roughness coefficient can be calculated to emulate the water-surface profiles to within 0.06 meter for depths of flow less than 0.6 meter and plus or minus 10 percent for depths between 0.6 and 2 meters.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗
USGS2020

Aligning climate models with stakeholder needs: Advances in communicating future rainfall uncertainties for south Florida decision makers

Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.

South Florida↗
USGS2018

Method to characterize inorganic particulates in lung tissue biopsies using field emission scanning electron microscopy

Humans accumulate large numbers of inorganic particles in their lungs over a lifetime. Whether this causes or contributes to debilitating disease over a normal lifespan depends on the type and concentration of the particles. We developed and tested a protocol for in situ characterization of the types and distribution of inorganic particles in biopsied lung tissue from three human groups using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) combined with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). Many distinct particle types were recognized among the 13 000 particles analyzed. Silica, feldspars, clays, titanium dioxides, iron oxides and phosphates were the most common constituents in all samples. Particles were classified into three general groups: endogenous , which form naturally in the body; exogenic particles, natural earth materials; and anthropogenic particles, attributed to industrial sources. These in situ results were compared with those using conventional sodium hypochlorite tissue digestion and particle filtration. With the exception of clays and phosphates, the relative abundances of most common particle types were similar in both approaches. Nonetheless, the digestion/filtration method was determined to alter the texture and relative abundances of some particle types. SEM/EDS analysis of digestion filters could be automated in contrast to the more time intensive in situ analyses.

Toxicology Mechanisms and Methods↗
USGS2023

Estimates of adult Lake Trout mortality from coded wire tags in a population with developing natural reproduction in southern Lake Michigan

Objective Overfishing and Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus predation led to extirpation of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush from Lake Michigan in the 1950s. Large populations of hatchery‐reared fish were developed by the 1970s, but natural reproduction was limited until the early 2000s when it began to increase in the southern main basin. Hypothesizing that the relatively low mortality of spawning‐aged fish contributed to this reproductive success, we estimated the total annual mortality rate for this population. Methods We used catch curves to estimate the total instantaneous mortality rate Z using coded wire tags, which provided definitive ages. We made separate estimates from fish collected in three on‐going surveys: a spring gill‐net survey, a fall gill‐net spawning survey, and a sport fishery survey. Result Our estimates of Z ± SE were 0.297 ± 0.019, 0.239 ± 0.009, and 0.205 ± 0.007 for the spring, spawning, and sport fishery surveys, respectively. We suggest that the mean Z ± SE of all survey estimates of 0.247 ± 0.027 would be a reasonable estimate for this population, which equates to a total annual mortality of 22 ± 3%. This estimate is in the low range of rates reported for the species and is in the same range as other populations in the Great Lakes with well‐established natural reproduction. Conclusion We concluded that these low total mortality rates contributed to the reproductive success in southern Lake Michigan through increasing spawning stock density and age structure and that previous estimates of another important population parameter, the instantaneous natural mortality rate M , were too high. Estimates of M ranged from 0.210 to 0.240 and were based on the Pauly equation, a growth‐ and temperature‐based estimator. We suggest maximum‐age‐based estimators of M are more appropriate for Lake Trout. Several alternative maximum‐age‐based estimators produced estimates for M of 0.132–0.058, all of which are more compatible with our estimate of Z .

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2020

Review of methods to repair and maintain lithophilic fish spawning habitat

Rocky reefs provide important spawning and refuge habitats for lithophilic spawning fishes. However, many reefs have been lost or severely degraded through anthropogenic effects like dredging, channelization, or sedimentation. Constructed reefs have been used to mitigate these effects in some systems, but these reefs are also subject to degradation which may warrant custodial maintenance. Monitoring and maintenance of natural or constructed spawning reefs are not common practices; therefore, few methodologies have been created to test the effectiveness of such tools. We conducted a literature review to assess available information on maintenance of rocky spawning habitats used by lithophilic fishes. We identified 54 rocky spawning habitat maintenance projects, most of which aimed to improve fish spawning habitats through the addition of spawning substrate ( n = 33) or cleaning of substrate ( n = 23). In comparison to shallow riverine studies focused on salmonids, we found little information on deep-water reefs, marine reefs, or other fish species. We discuss the possible application of potential spawning habitat cleaning methods from other disciplines (e.g., treasure hunting; archeology) that may provide effective means of reef maintenance that can be used by restoration practitioners.

Water↗