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USGS2004

Guidelines for preparation of state water-use estimates for 2000

This report describes the water-use categories and data elements required for the 2000 national water-use compilation conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as part of its National Water Use Information Program. It identifies sources of water-use information, guidelines for estimating water use, and required documentation for preparation of the national compilation by State for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The data are published in USGS Circular 1268, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000. USGS has published circulars on estimated use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale for the year 2000, all States prepare estimates of water withdrawals for public supply, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power generation water uses at the county level. All States prepare estimates of domestifc use and population served by public supply at least at the State level. All States provide estimates of irrigated acres by irrigation system type (sprinkler, surface, or microirrigation) at the county level. County-level estimates of withdrawals for mining, livestock, and aquaculture uses are compiled by selected States that comprised the largest percentage of national use in 1995 for these categories, and are optional for other States. Ground-water withdrawals for public-supply, industrial, and irrigation use are aggregated by principal aquifer or aquifer system, as identified by the USGS Office of Ground Water. Some categories and data elements that were mandatory in previous compilations are optional for the 2000 compilation, in response to budget considerations at the State level. Optional categories are commercial, hydroelectric, and wastewater treatment. Estimation of deliveries from public supply to domestic, commercial, industrial, and thermoelectric uses, consumptive use for any category, and irrigation conveyance loss are optional data elements. Aggregation of data by the eight-digit hydrologic cataloging unit is optional. Water-use data compiled by the States are stored in the USGS Aggregated Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). This database is designed to store both mandatory and optional data elements. AWUDS contains several routines that can be used for quality assurance and quality control of the data, and also produces tables of water-use data compiled for 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000. These water-use data are used by USGS, other agencies, organizations, academic institutions, and the public for research, water-management decisions, trend analysis, and forecasting.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2007

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Mountain hydrology of the western United States

Climate change and climate variability, population growth, and land use change drive the need for new hydrologic knowledge and understanding. In the mountainous West and other similar areas worldwide, three pressing hydrologic needs stand out: first, to better understand the processes controlling the partitioning of energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems; second, to better understand feedbacks between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes; and, third, to enhance our physical and empirical understanding with integrated measurement strategies and information systems. We envision an integrative approach to monitoring, modeling, and sensing the mountain environment that will improve understanding and prediction of hydrologic fluxes and processes. Here extensive monitoring of energy fluxes and hydrologic states are needed to supplement existing measurements, which are largely limited to streamflow and snow water equivalent. Ground‐based observing systems must be explicitly designed for integration with remotely sensed data and for scaling up to basins and whole ranges.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2012

The influence of reservoirs, climate, land use and hydrologic conditions on loads and chemical quality of dissolved organic carbon in the Colorado River

Longitudinal patterns in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loads and chemical quality were identified in the Colorado River from the headwaters in the Rocky Mountains to the United States-Mexico border from 1994 to 2011. Watershed- and reach-scale climate, land use, river discharge and hydrologic modification conditions that contribute to patterns in DOC were also identified. Principal components analysis (PCA) identified site-specific precipitation and reach-scale discharge as being correlated with sites in the upper basin, where there were increases in DOC load from the upstream to downstream direction. In the lower basin, where DOC load decreased from upstream to downstream, sites were correlated with site-specific temperature and reach-scale population, urban land use and hydrologic modification. In the reaches containing Lakes Powell and Mead, the two largest reservoirs in the United States, DOC quantity decreased, terrestrially derived aromatic DOC was degraded and/or autochthonous less aromatic DOC was produced. Taken together, these results suggest that longitudinal patterns in the relatively unregulated upper basin are influenced by watershed inputs of water and DOC, whereas DOC patterns in the lower basin are reflective of a balance between watershed contribution of water and DOC to the river and loss of water and DOC due to hydrologic modification and/or biogeochemical processes. These findings suggest that alteration of constituent fluxes in rivers that are highly regulated may overshadow watershed processes that would control fluxes in comparable unregulated rivers. Further, these results provide a foundation for detailed assessments of factors controlling the transport and chemical quality of DOC in the Colorado River.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2021

How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical-deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in-stream transport is projected to increase by 1 - 5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate driven changes in high elevation hydrology have impacts on basin-wide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Ecoregions of California

Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality, and quantity of environmental resources. They are designed to serve as a spatial framework for the research, assessment, management, and monitoring of ecosystems and ecosystem components. By recognizing the spatial differences in the capacities and potentials of ecosystems, ecoregions stratify the environment by its probable response to disturbance (Bryce and others, 1999). These general purpose regions are critical for structuring and implementing ecosystem management strategies across Federal agencies, State agencies, and nongovernment organizations that are responsible for different types of resources in the same geographical areas (Omernik and others, 2000). The approach used to compile this map is based on the premise that ecological regions are hierarchical and can be identified through the analysis of the spatial patterns and the composition of biotic and abiotic phenomena that affect or reflect differences in ecosystem quality and integrity (Wiken, 1986; Omernik, 1987, 1995). These phenomena include geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The relative importance of each characteristic varies from one ecological region to another regardless of the hierarchical level. A Roman numeral hierarchical scheme has been adopted for different levels of ecological regions. Level I is the coarsest level, dividing North America into 15 ecological regions. Level II divides the continent into 50 regions (Commission for Environmental Cooperation Working Group, 1997, map revised 2006). At level III, the continental United States contains 105 ecoregions and the conterminous United States has 85 ecoregions (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2013). Level IV, depicted here for California, is a further refinement of level III ecoregions. Explanations of the methods used to define these ecoregions are given in Omernik (1995), Omernik and others (2000), and Omernik and Griffith (2014). California has great ecological and biological diversity. The State contains offshore islands and coastal lowlands, large alluvial valleys, forested mountain ranges, deserts, and various aquatic habitats. There are 13 level III ecoregions and 177 level IV ecoregions in California and most continue into ecologically similar parts of adjacent States of the United States or Mexico (Bryce and others, 2003; Thorson and others, 2003; Griffith and others, 2014). The California ecoregion map was compiled at a scale of 1:250,000. It revises and subdivides an earlier national ecoregion map that was originally compiled at a smaller scale (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2013). This poster is the result of a collaborative project primarily between U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Region IX, USEPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (Corvallis, Oregon), California Department of Fish and Wildlife (DFW), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)–Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), U.S. Department of the Interior–Geological Survey (USGS), and other State of California agencies and universities. The project is associated with interagency efforts to develop a common framework of ecological regions (McMahon and others, 2001). Reaching that objective requires recognition of the differences in the conceptual approaches and mapping methodologies applied to develop the most common ecoregion-type frameworks, including those developed by the USDA–Forest Service (Bailey and others, 1994; Miles and Goudy, 1997; Cleland and others, 2007), the USEPA (Omernik 1987, 1995), and the NRCS (U.S. Department of Agriculture–Soil Conservation Service, 1981; U.S. Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2006). As each of these frameworks is further refined, their differences are becoming less discernible. Regional collaborative projects such as this one in California, where some agreement has been reached among multiple resource-management agencies, are a step toward attaining consensus and consistency in ecoregion frameworks for the entire nation.

California↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

Targeting land-use change for nitratenitrogen load reductions in an agricultural watershed

The research was conducted as part of the USDA's Conservation Effects Assessment Project. The objective of the project was to evaluate the environmental effects of land-use changes, with a focus on understanding how the spatial distribution throughout a watershed influences their effectiveness.The Soil and Water AssessmentTool (SWAT) water quality model was applied to the Squaw Creek watershed, which covers 4,730 ha (11,683 ac) of prime agriculture land in southern Iowa. The model was calibrated (2000 to 2004) and validated (1996 to 1999) for overall watershed hydrology and for streamflow and nitrate loadings at the watershed outlet on an annual and monthly basis. Four scenarios for land-use change were evaluated including one scenario consistent with recent land-use changes and three scenarios focused on land-use change on highly erodible land areas, upper basin areas, and floodplain areas. Results for the Squaw Creek watershed suggested that nitrate losses were sensitive to land-use change. If land-use patterns were restored to 1990 conditions, nitrate loads may be reduced 7% to 47% in the watershed and subbasins, whereas converting row crops to grass in highly erodible land, upper basin, and floodplain areas would reduce nitrate loads by 47%, 16%, and 8%, respectively. These SWAT model simulations can provide guidance on how to begin targeting land-use change for nitrate load reductions in agricultural watersheds.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗
USGS1996

U.S. Geological Survey federal-state cooperative water-resources program, fiscal year 1995

The Federal-State Cooperative Program is a major U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) activity for the collection, analysis, and reporting of information on the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation's water resources. The fundamental characteristic of the program is that most of the work is undertaken by the USGS through joint-funding agreements, with State, regional, and local agencies providing at least one-half the funds. The main objectives of the program are (1) to collect, on a systematic basis, data needed for the continuing determi- nation and evaluation of the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation's water resources; and (2) to appraise the availability and the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of surface and ground water through data analysis and interpretive water-resources investigations and research. During fiscal year (FY) 1995, Cooperative Program activities were underway in offices in every State, Puerto Rico, and several territories in concert with about 1,100 cooperating agencies. In FY 1995, Federal funding of $62.1 million as matched by cooperating agencies, which also provided more than $28.2 million unmatched for a total program of about $152 million. This amounted to nearly 38 percent of the total funds for the USGS's water-resources activities. This report presents examples of FY 1995 investigations, as well as information on hydrologic data collection and water-use activities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Contaminants of emerging concern in urban stormwater: Spatiotemporal patterns and removal by iron-enhanced sand filters (IESFs)

Numerous contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) typically occur in urban rivers. Wastewater effluents are a major source of many CECs. Urban runoff (stormwater) is a major urban water budget component and may constitute another major CEC pathway. Yet, stormwater-based CEC field studies are rare. This research investigated 384 CECs in 36 stormwater samples in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. Nine sampling sites included three large stormwater conveyances (pipes) and three paired iron-enhanced sand filters (IESFs; untreated inlets and treated outlets). The 123 detected compounds included commercial-consumer compounds, veterinary and human pharmaceuticals, lifestyle and personal care compounds, pesticides, and others. Thirty-one CECs were detected in ≥50% of samples. Individual samples contained a median of 35 targeted CECs (range: 18–54). Overall, median concentrations were ≥10 ng/L for 25 CECs and ≥100 ng/L for 9 CECs. Ranked, hierarchical linear modeling indicated significant seasonal- and site type-based concentration variability for 53 and 30 CECs, respectively, with observed patterns corresponding to CEC type, source, usage, and seasonal hydrology. A primarily warm-weather, diffuse, runoff-based profile included many herbicides . A second profile encompassed winter and/or late summer samples enriched with some recalcitrant, hydrophobic compounds (e.g., PAHs), especially at pipes, suggesting conservative, less runoff-dependent sources (e.g., sediments). A third profile, indicative of mixed conservative/non-runoff, runoff, and/or atmospheric sources and transport that collectively affect a variety of conditions, included various fungicides, lifestyle, non-prescription, and commercial-consumer CECs. Generally, pipe sites had large, diverse land-use catchments, and showed more frequent detections of diverse CECs, but often at lower concentrations; while untreated sites (with smaller, more residential-catchments) demonstrated greater detections of “pseudo-persistent” and other ubiquitous or residentially-associated CECs. Although untreated stormwater transports an array of CECs to receiving waters, IESF treatment significantly removed concentrations of 14 (29%) of the 48 most detected CECs; for these, median removal efficiencies were 26%–100%. Efficient removal of some hydrophobic (e.g., PAHs, bisphenol A) and polar-hydrophilic (e.g., caffeine, nicotine) compounds indicated particulate-bound contaminant filtration and for certain dissolved contaminants, sorption.

Minnesota↗
USGS2018

Clayey landslide initiation and acceleration strongly modulated by soil swelling

Largely unknown mechanisms restrain motion of clay-rich, slow-moving landslides that are widespread worldwide and rarely accelerate catastrophically. We studied a clayey, slow-moving landslide typical of thousands in northern California, USA, to decipher hydrologic-mechanical interactions that modulate landslide dynamics. Similar to some other studies, observed pore-water pressures correlated poorly with landslide reactivation and speed. In situ and laboratory measurements strongly suggested that variable pressure along the landslide's lateral shear boundaries resulting from seasonal soil expansion and contraction modulated its reactivation and speed. Slope-stability modeling suggested that the landslide's observed behavior could be predicted by including transient swell pressure as a resistance term, whereas modeling considering only transient hydrologic conditions predicted movement 5–6 months prior to when it was observed. All clayey soils swell to some degree; hence, our findings suggest that swell pressure likely modulates motion of many landslides and should be considered to improve forecasts of clayey landslide initiation and mobility.

California↗
USGS2017

Oxygen stable isotopic disparities among sympatric small land snail species from northwest Minnesota, USA

The oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of land snail shells can be a valuable paleoenvironmental archive if the climatic parameters that influence the isotopic system are fully understood. Previous calibration studies have examined a limited number of species or individuals, and most have focused on larger (> 10 mm) taxa, which do not represent the dominant shell material in the Quaternary fossil record. In this study, we evaluate the δ 18 O values of small land snails (< 10 mm), which are common in modern settings and are often preserved in a wide array of Quaternary geologic and archeologic deposits. Our primary goal was to determine if coexisting species record equivalent isotopic information in their shells, regardless of differences in their ecology, dietary habits, behavior, and/or body size. We collected and analyzed 265 individuals of 11 species from 12 sites in northwest Minnesota (USA), which exhibits extremely abundant and diverse terrestrial malacofauna in North America. We did not observe significant correlations between shell δ 18 O values and the type of ecosystem (forest/grassland) or hydrologic setting (upland/lowland). However, the majority of species differed significantly in shell δ 18 O values. Larger taxa ( Catinella , Succinea , Discus ) consistently yielded higher δ 18 O values than smaller taxa ( Euconulus , Gastrocopta , Hawaiia , Vallonia ), by up to ~ 3‰. These isotopic offsets among sympatric taxa could be attributed to a number of physical, behavioral, and/or evolutionary traits, including the ability of larger species to tolerate drier conditions better than their smaller counterparts, differences in their preferred microhabitats or phylogentic non-independence. Regardless of the reason, our results imply that researchers should not combine isotopic data from different types of land snails without first investigating modern specimens to determine if it is appropriate. Moreover, our data suggest that combining instrumental climate data, a snail flux-balance model, and shell δ 18 O values can help us to better understand the ecology of land snails.

Minnesota↗
USGS2019

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall) first need to be evaluated with respect to proven, direct measurement-based thresholds that use rain gauges and in situ soil moisture sensors. Here, we compare ground-based hydrologic data to overlapping satellite-based data before, during, and after a recent season of widespread shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay Area (California, USA). We then explore how the remotely sensed information could be used to empirically define hypothetical thresholds for shallow landsliding. We find that the ground-based thresholds developed with a single monitoring station show superior performance because the in situ soil saturation data better reflect the gravity-dominated subsurface flow conditions that are characteristic of hillslopes during the rainy season. Although the satellite-based thresholds can identify most of the landslide days, they include a greater number of false alarms due to overestimates of soil moisture between major storm events. To avoid the type of false alarms that are characteristic of our satellite-based thresholds, further post-processing of the near-surface hydrologic response data to better reflect gravity-dominated drainage should be integrated into satellite-based model outputs. Our results encourage further deployment of ground stations in landslide-prone terrain and cautious exploration of satellite-based hydro-meteorological thresholds where in situ networks are nonexistent.

California↗
USGS2006

An interface between the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) pollution model and the ERDAS Imagine Geographic Information System (GIS)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture developed the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) pollution model. The AGNPS pollution model simulates the behavior of runoff, sediment, and nutrient transport from watersheds that have agriculture as their prime use. This model has been used extensively by scientists conducting hydrologic or water quality analyses using computer modeling in an attempt to further understand the complex problem of managing non-point sources of pollution in a watershed hydrology domain. A difficulty with AGNPS is creating and formatting all of the data necessary to execute the model to conduct landscape modeling and watershed analyses. A unique Windows-based program, the AGNPS Data Generator ( ADGen ), has been developed to simplify the task of preparing and creating the input for AGNPS through an interface with ERDAS Imagine (a Leica Geosystems product). Because of the complexity and quantity of the input required and the nature of the output text file produced by AGNPS, ADGen is a helpful tool for the researcher who is trying to analyze non-point source pollution.

Geographic Information Sciences↗
USGS1995

U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Cooperative Water-Resources Program fiscal year 1994

The Federal-State Cooperative Program is a major U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) activity for the collection, analysis, and reporting of information on the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation's water resources. The fundamental characteristic of the program is that most of the work is undertaken by the USGS through joint-funding agreements, with State, regional, and local agencies providing at least one-half the funds. The main objectives of the program are (1) to collect, on a systematic basis, data needed for the continuing determination and evaluation of the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation's water resources; and (2) to appraise the availability and the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of surface and ground water through data analysis and interpretive water-resources investigations and research. During fiscal year (FY)1994, Cooperative Program activities were underway in offices in every State, Puerto Rico, and several territories in concert with about 1,100 cooperating agencies. In FY 1994, Federal funding of $63.5 million was matched by cooperating agencies, which also provided more than $25 million unmatched for a total program of about $152 million. This amounted to nearly 40 percent of the total funds for the USGS's water-resources activities. This report presents examples of FY 1994 investigations, as well as updated information on hydrologic data collection activities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual Report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2020 through December 2020

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an outdated adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures reducing performance of juvenile Steelhead Trout. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (https://www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/Index). Specifically, this work addresses the substrategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2020, we PIT-tagged 1,415 Steelhead parr (age-0 and age-1) in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Recaptures and detections of PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr happened through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trap operations, and instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection infrastructure. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data to population assessments, and life-cycle research and modeling. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 92 percent during eight of the past nine years and have exceeded 90% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River the past three years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. The dam had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations in Trout Creek due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues. Hemlock Dam was laddered for adult passage, but not to modern standards, which likely resulted in avoidance by some adult Steelhead Trout. We continue to improve our PTISs in the Wind River subbasin. The improvements in siting and addition of grid power to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU, rkm 27.6) during 2016 and 2017, and the addition of the Mine Reach site (site code MIN, rkm 36.0) have much improved PIT-tagged fish monitoring in the upper Wind River watershed. The paired PTIS design in the upper Wind River watershed (sites WRU and MIN), matches that in the Trout Creek watershed (sites TRC and TC4) and will allow comparisons of Steelhead Trout population metrics between the two watersheds as response to Hemlock Dam removal continues and future restoration efforts occur in Trout Creek. We installed two new PTISs during 2020. Both were installed downstream of our primary interrogation sites on Trout Creek and in the mainstem Wind River. We hope the two new sites will provide interrogations information that will allow us to better estimate detection efficiencies of downstream moving juvenile Steelhead Trout at the primary interrogation sites. The additional interrogations will be particularly important for those fish tagged with 9-mm PIT tags as less information from downstream locations is available from them. These sites and other status and trend data will allow evaluation of further planned restoration within the watershed, particularly that proposed for the headwaters of Trout Creek. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. We have estimated that from 15 to 51% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age 1 for additional rearing during both spring and fall. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall. These findings raise questions about where parr most successfully rear and whether migrations are density or habitat quality driven. Broader monitoring programs would give a more comprehensive understanding of juvenile Steelhead Trout production and rearing and productivity contribution. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PITtagged parr during summer were similar across the subbasin but lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth for parr tagged at age-0 is similar across the subbasin. Non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus confluentus are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling has allowed us to index their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2020. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2020 declined, though both metrics increased in 2018. Evaluation and planning of restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin will inform research and tracking of many populations and help inform habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Increasingly detailed viable salmonid population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks like those in the Wind River can provide data to inform fisheries policy and management and understand life-history strategies and limiting factors. Such efforts also provide assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek, and the proposed Stage-0 restoration effort for upper Trout Creek, which would be a large-scale effort to reset sections of stream within their floodplain, restoring connectivity and interaction with surrounding landscape.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

Oregon;Washington↗
USGS1982

Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency: Bulletin #17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee

In December 1967, Bulletin No. 15, "A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies," was issued by the Hydrology Committee of the Water Resources Council. The report recommended use of the Pearson Type III distribution with log transformation of the data (log-Pearson Type III distribution) as a base method for flood flow frequency studies. As pointed out in that report, further studies were needed covering various aspects of flow frequency determinations. In March 1976, Bulletin 17, "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency" was issued by the Water Resources Council. The guide was an extension and update of Bulletin No. 15. It provided a more complete guide for flood flow frequency analysis incorporating currently accepted technical methods with sufficient detail to promote uniform application. It was limited to defining flood potentials in terms of peak discharge and exceedance probability at locations where a systematic record of peak flood flows is available. The recommended set of procedures was selected from those used or described in the literature prior to 1976, based on studies conducted for this purpose at the Center for Research in Water Resources of the University of Texas at Austin (summarized in Appendix 14) and on studies by the Work Group on Flood Flow Frequency. The "Guidelines" were revised and reissued in June 1977 as Bulletin 17A. Bulletin 17B is the latest effort to improve and expand upon the earlier publications. Bulletin 17B provides revised procedures for weighting a station skew value with the results from a generalized skew study, detecting and treating outliers, making two station comparisons, and computing confidence limits about a frequency curve. The Work Group that prepared this revision did not address the suitability of the original distribution or the generalized skew map. Major problems are encountered when developing guides for flood flow frequency determinations. There is no procedure or set of procedures that can be adopted which, when rigidly applied to the available data, will accurately define the flood potential of any given watershed. Statistical analysis alone will not resolve all flood frequency problems. As discussed in subsequent sections of this guide, elements of risk and uncertainty are inherent in any flood frequency analysis. User decisions must be based on properly applied procedures and proper interpretation of results considering risk and uncertainty. Therefore, the judgment of a professional experienced in hydrologic analysis will enhance the usefulness of a flood frequency analysis and promote appropriate application. It is possible to standarize many elements of flood frequency analysis. This guide describes each major element of the process of defining the flood potential at a specific location in terms of peak discharge and exceedance probability. Use is confined to stations where available records are adequate to warrant statistical analysis of the data. Special situations may require other approaches. In those cases where the procedures of this guide are not followed, deviations must be supported by appropriate study and accompanied by a comparison of results using the recommended procedures. As a further means of achieving consistency and improving results, the Work Group recommends that studies be coordinated when more than one analyst is working currently on data for the same location. This recommendation holds particularly when defining exceedance probabilities for rare events, where this guide allows more latitude. Flood records are limited. As more years of record become available at each location, the determination of flood potential may change. Thus, an estimate may be outdated a few years after it is made. Additional flood data alone may be sufficient reason for a fresh assessment of the flood potential. When making a new assessment, the analyst should incorporate in his study a review of earlier estimates. Where differences appear, they should be acknowledged and explained.

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