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USGS2011

Hydrogeochemical processes governing the origin, transport and fate of major and trace elements from mine wastes and mineralized rock to surface waters

The formation of acid mine drainage from metals extraction or natural acid rock drainage and its mixing with surface waters is a complex process that depends on petrology and mineralogy, structural geology, geomorphology, surface-water hydrology, hydrogeology, climatology, microbiology, chemistry, and mining and mineral processing history. The concentrations of metals, metalloids, acidity, alkalinity, Cl - , F - and SO 4 2- found in receiving streams, rivers, and lakes are affected by all of these factors and their interactions. Remediation of mine sites is an engineering concern but to design a remediation plan without understanding the hydrogeochemical processes of contaminant mobilization can lead to ineffective and excessively costly remediation. Furthermore, remediation needs a goal commensurate with natural background conditions rather than water-quality standards that might bear little relation to conditions of a highly mineralized terrain. This paper reviews hydrogeochemical generalizations, primarily from US Geological Survey research, that enhance our understanding of the origin, transport, and fate of contaminants released from mined and mineralized areas. Mobility of potential or actual contaminants from mining and mineral processing activities depends on (1) occurrence : is the mineral source of the contaminant actually present? (2) abundance : is the mineral present in sufficient quantity to make a difference? (3) reactivity : what are the energetics, rates, and mechanisms of sorption and mineral dissolution and precipitation relative to the flow rate of the water? and (4) hydrology : what are the main flow paths for contaminated water? Estimates of relative proportions of minerals dissolved and precipitated can be made with mass-balance calculations if minerals and water compositions along a flow path are known. Combined with discharge, these mass-balance estimates quantify the actual weathering rate of pyrite mineralization in the environment and compare reasonably well with laboratory rates of pyrite oxidation except when large quantities of soluble salts and evaporated mine waters have accumulated underground. Quantitative mineralogy with trace-element compositions can substantially improve the identification of source minerals for specific trace elements through mass balances. Post-dissolution sorption and precipitation (attenuation) reactions depend on the chemical behavior of each element, solution composition and pH, aqueous speciation, temperature, and contact-time with mineral surfaces. For example, little metal attenuation occurs in waters of low pH (<3.5) and metals tend to maintain element ratios indicative of the main mineral or group of minerals from which they dissolved, except Fe, SiO 2 , and redox-sensitive oxyanions (As, Sb, Se, Mo, Cr, V). Once dissolved, metal and metalloid concentrations are strongly affected by redox conditions and pH. Iron is the most reactive because it is rapidly oxidized by bacteria and archaea and Fe(III) hydrolyzes and precipitates at low pH (1–3) which is related directly to its first hydrolysis constant, pK 1 = 2.2. Several insoluble sulfate minerals precipitate at low pH including anglesite, barite, jarosite, alunite and basaluminite. Aluminum hydrolyzes near pH 5 (pK 1 = 5.0) and provides buffering and removal of Al by mineral precipitation from pH 4–5.5. Dissolved sulfate behaves conservatively because the amount removed from solution by precipitation is usually too small relative to the high concentrations in the water column and relative to the flow rate of the water.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2025

Evaluating hydrologic data products for scientific and management applications related to potential future streamflow conditions in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

The hydrology of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers is a fundamental driver of ecosystem patterns and processes across a large portion of the United States. Quantitative hydrologic data for the main stems of these rivers underlie numerous scientific investigations, statistical models, and decision-making processes for local, State, and Federal agencies involved in the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program. Although historical hydrologic data exist, data representing potential future conditions of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers lack the resolution necessary to anticipate biotic and abiotic responses to altered hydrology and to determine resilient management actions. A source of future hydrologic scenarios is the readily available LOCA–VIC–mizuRoute hydrologic data products (named for the chain of models the data are produced from—localized constructed analogs, Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model, and the mizuRoute hydrologic routing model—that we shorten further to LVM in this report) that include simulated discharges for historic and future timeframes. The objective of this study is to assess the reliability of the hydrologic data products for their use in Upper Mississippi River Restoration program applications. Key study questions are (1) do the hydrologic data products reproduce characteristics of hydrology necessary to support ecological modeling and restoration decision-making applications within the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program? and (2) are there geographic differences in the reliability of the hydrologic data products? Seven characteristics of river hydrology were selected related to flow magnitude, seasonality, and regime for evaluation. The seven characteristics were calculated using observed and historical simulated hydrologic data at 19 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages throughout the basins of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers; two streamgages are located on the main stem of the Mississippi River and two streamgages are located on the main stem of the Illinois River. Statistical comparisons between observed and historical simulated characteristics indicated that the hydrologic data products did not reliably represent historical hydrologic conditions in the basin or main stem. The hydrologic data products we evaluated could not reliably capture the overall hydrologic regime or flow magnitudes; the latter is evidenced by substantial underestimates of discharge at most streamgages. Seasonal hydrologic characteristics were captured more reliably than flow magnitude, but overall correspondence was low for most streamgages. A weak latitudinal pattern in seasonal characteristics indicated the hydrologic data products poorly represent streamflow timing in snow-affected regions of the basin. Discrepancies in magnitude, seasonality, and regime indicate the potential for multiple sources of error. Because poor correspondence was present across all 19 streamgages, it was not possible to identify specific drivers of poor performance (that is, drainage area or geography). The modeling chain should be evaluated for biases associated with meteorologic forcing data, as well as hydrologic model formulation and calibration. We conclude that the hydrologic data products we evaluated appear unsuitable for applications tied to habitat and ecosystem restoration and management in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Plans to develop a future hydrology dataset for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program would benefit from ongoing work to improve global climate model output downscaling methods, to improve hydrologic models, to make use of innovations in machine-learning approaches for projecting hydrology, and other efforts. The framework developed herein to evaluate hydrometeorological outputs generated using global climate models for a specific water resources application is a transferrable approach that could be applied to other data products and river systems.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Sout↗

USGS2012

Contemporary seismicity in and around the Yakima-Fold-and-Thrust Belt in eastern Washington

We examined characteristics of routinely cataloged seismicity from 1970 to the present in and around the Yakima fold‐and‐thrust belt (YFTB) in eastern Washington to determine if the characteristics of contemporary seismicity provide clues about regional‐scale active tectonics or about more localized, near‐surface processes. We employed new structural and hydrologic models of the Columbia River basalts (CRB) and found that one‐third to one‐half of the cataloged earthquakes occur within the CRB and that these CRB earthquakes exhibit significantly more clustered, and swarmlike, behavior than those outside. These results and inferences from published studies led us to hypothesize that clustered seismicity is likely associated with hydrologic changes in the CRB, which hosts the regional aquifer system. While some general features of the regional groundwater system support this hypothesis, seismicity patterns and mapped long‐term changes in groundwater levels and present‐day irrigation neither support nor refute it. Regional tectonic processes and crustal‐scale structures likely influence the distribution of earthquakes both outside and within the CRB as well. We based this inference on qualitatively assessed alignments between the dominant northwest trends in the geologic structure and the seismicity generally and between specific faults and characteristics of the 2009 Wooded Island swarm and aseismic slip, which is the only cluster studied in detail and the most vigorous since regional monitoring began.

Washington↗

USGS1997

Seasonal variation in metal concentrations in a stream affected by acid mine drainage, St. Kevin Gulch, Colorado

Mining of mineral deposits in the Rocky Mountains has left a legacy of acidic inflows to otherwise pristine upland watersheds. Since 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey has studied physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect the transport and transformation of metals in St. Kevin Gulch, an acidic, metal-rich stream near Leadville, Colorado. Well-known chemical processes have been quantified in the context of on-going physical transport by defining the hydrology with instream tracer-dilution experiments. These processes affect the partitioning of metals between dissolved and colloidal transport phases. In this acidic stream, pH increases during snowmelt runoff. At the most acidic stream site, pH varies from 3.15 to 4.00 during seasonal changes. Conservative effects of dilution are quantified using manganese as a natural, conservative tracer. Aluminum, copper, and zinc also are relatively conservative throughout the seasonal changes. Sulfate and iron, on the other hand, are removed with respect to manganese. The loss of iron through precipitation of hydrous Fe oxide is consistent with thermodynamic calculations. The loss of sulfate, however, cannot be fully explained.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

Integrating observations and models to determine the effect of seasonally frozen ground on hydrologic partitioning in alpine hillslopes in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

This study integrated spatially distributed field observations and soil thermal models to constrain the impact of frozen ground on snowmelt partitioning and streamflow generation in an alpine catchment within the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research site, Colorado, USA. The study area was comprised of two contrasting hillslopes with notable differences in topography, snow depth and plant community composition. Time-lapse electrical resistivity surveys and soil thermal models enabled extension of discrete soil moisture and temperature measurements to incorporate landscape variability at scales and depths not possible with point measurements alone. Specifically, heterogenous snowpack thickness (~0–4 m) and soil volumetric water content between hillslopes (~0.1–0.45) strongly influenced the depths of seasonal frost, and the antecedent soil moisture available to form pore ice prior to freezing. Variable frost depths and antecedent soil moisture conditions were expected to create a patchwork of differing snowmelt infiltration rates and flowpaths. However, spikes in soil temperature and volumetric water content, as well as decreases in subsurface electrical resistivity revealed snowmelt infiltration across both hillslopes that coincided with initial decreases in snow water equivalent and early increases in streamflow. Soil temperature, soil moisture and electrical resistivity data from both wet and dry hillslopes showed that initial increases in streamflow occurred prior to deep soil water flux. Temporal lags between snowmelt infiltration and deeper percolation suggested that the lateral movement of water through the unsaturated zone was an important driver of early streamflow generation. These findings provide the type of process-based information needed to bridge gaps in scale and populate physically based cryohydrologic models to investigate subsurface hydrology and biogeochemical transport in soils that freeze seasonally.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

Rates and probable causes of freshwater tidal marsh failure, Potomac River Estuary, Northern Virginia, USA

Dyke Marsh, a distal tidal marsh along the Potomac River estuary, is diminishing rapidly in areal extent. This study documents Dyke Marsh erosion rates from the early-1860s to the present during pre-mining, mining, and post-mining phases. From the late-1930s to the mid-1970s, Dyke Marsh and the adjacent shallow riverbottom were mined for gravel, resulting in a ~55 % initial loss of area. Marsh loss continued during the post-mining phase (1976–2012). Causes of post-mining loss were unknown, but were thought to include Potomac River flooding. Post-mining areal-erosion rates increased from 0.138 ha yr −1 (~0.37 ac yr −1 ) to 0.516 ha yr −1 (~1.67 ac yr −1 ), and shoreline-erosion rates increased from 0.76 m yr −1 (~2.5 ft yr −1 ) to 2.60 m yr −1 (~8.5 ft yr −1 ). Results suggest the accelerating post-mining erosion reflects a process-driven feedback loop, enabled by the marsh's severely-altered geomorphic and hydrologic baseline system; the primary post-mining degradation process is wave-induced erosion from northbound cyclonic storms. Dyke Marsh erosion rates are now comparable to, or exceed, rates for proximal coastal marshes in the same region. Persistent and accelerated erosion of marshland long after cessation of mining illustrates the long-term, and potentially devastating, effects that temporally-restricted, anthropogenic destabilization can have on estuarine marsh systems.

Virginia↗

USGS1996

Use of particle tracking to improve numerical model calibration and to analyze ground-water flow and contaminant migration, Massachusetts Military Reservation, western Cape Cod, Massachusetts

A steady-state, three-dimensional numerical model coupled with a particle-tracking algorithm was developed to simulate the complex hydrogeologic conditions affecting ground-water flow and contaminant migration in the Cape Cod aquifer beneath the Massachusetts Military Reservation, Massachusetts. The known extents of the contaminant plumes beneath the reservation were incorporated into a particle-tracking analysis to improve model calibration. Particle tracking was used to evaluate the effects of simulated changes in hydraulic properties and in simulated hydrologic boundaries such as ponds and streams. The model simulations made during the calibration process indicated that changes in simulated hydraulic properties and hydrologic boundaries resulted in small changes in the water-table and pond altitudes and in streamflows, yet had a substantial effect on model-calculated groundwater flowpaths. Therefore, the characterization of contaminant migration using a model calibrated only on the basis of ground-water heads and flux may be inaccurate. The results of model simulations for the analysis of the effects of pumping and recharge on ground-water flow and contaminant migration indicated that ground-water flowpaths were greatly affected by subtle shifts in hydraulic gradients. These changes in the ground-water-flow system in response to hydrologic stresses such as pumping and recharge can be determined by the use of a particle-tracking analysis.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2013

Hydrologic controls on the transport and cycling of carbon and nitrogen in a boreal catchment underlain by continuous permafrost

Boreal ecosystems represent a large carbon (C) reservoir and a substantial source of greenhouse gases. Hydrologic conditions dictate whether C leached from boreal soils is processed in catchments or flushed to less productive environments via the stream. This study quantified hydrologic and biogeochemical C loss from a boreal catchment underlain by frozen silt, where flowpaths may deepen as the active layer thaws over the summer. We hypothesized a decrease in the magnitude of C mineralization over the summer associated with changing flowpaths and decreasing hydrologic connectivity, organic matter lability, and nitrogen (N) availability. Conservative tracers were used to partition C and N loss between catchment export and biogeochemical processing. Coupling tracers with tributary and porewater chemistry indicated C and N cycling in soil flowpaths, with an exponential decrease over the summer. Nitrate was primarily reduced in hillslope flowpaths and the lack of N reaching the stream appeared to limit C mineralization. Stream export accounted for the greatest loss of C, removing 247 and 113 mol hr −1 in the early and late summer, respectively. Reactivity was related to hydrologic connectivity between the soils and stream, which was greatest early in the summer and following a large flood. While a warming climate may increase storage potential in thawed soils, the early‐season flush of labile material and late‐season runoff through mineral flowpaths may maintain high C export rates. Therefore, we highlight physical export as a dominant cause of aqueous C loss from silty catchments as the Arctic continues to thaw.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2008

Determination of dominant biogeochemical processes in a contaminated aquifer-wetland system using multivariate statistical analysis

Determining the processes governing aqueous biogeochemistry in a wetland hydrologically linked to an underlying contaminated aquifer is challenging due to the complex exchange between the systems and their distinct responses to changes in precipitation, recharge, and biological activities. To evaluate temporal and spatial processes in the wetland-aquifer system, water samples were collected using cm-scale multi-chambered passive diffusion samplers (peepers) to span the wetland-aquifer interface over a period of 3 yr. Samples were analyzed for major cations and anions, methane, and a suite of organic acids resulting in a large dataset of over 8000 points, which was evaluated using multivariate statistics. Principal component analysis (PCA) was chosen with the purpose of exploring the sources of variation in the dataset to expose related variables and provide insight into the biogeochemical processes that control the water chemistry of the system. Factor scores computed from PCA were mapped by date and depth. Patterns observed suggest that (i) fermentation is the process controlling the greatest variability in the dataset and it peaks in May; (ii) iron and sulfate reduction were the dominant terminal electron-accepting processes in the system and were associated with fermentation but had more complex seasonal variability than fermentation; (iii) methanogenesis was also important and associated with bacterial utilization of minerals as a source of electron acceptors (e.g., barite BaSO 4 ); and (iv) seasonal hydrological patterns (wet and dry periods) control the availability of electron acceptors through the reoxidation of reduced iron-sulfur species enhancing iron and sulfate reduction.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2016

mizuRoute version 1: A river network routing tool for a continental domain water resources applications

This paper describes the first version of a stand-alone runoff routing tool, mizuRoute. The mizuRoute tool post-processes runoff outputs from any distributed hydrologic model or land surface model to produce spatially distributed streamflow at various spatial scales from headwater basins to continental-wide river systems. The tool can utilize both traditional grid-based river network and vector-based river network data. Both types of river network include river segment lines and the associated drainage basin polygons, but the vector-based river network can represent finer-scale river lines than the grid-based network. Streamflow estimates at any desired location in the river network can be easily extracted from the output of mizuRoute. The routing process is simulated as two separate steps. First, hillslope routing is performed with a gamma-distribution-based unit-hydrograph to transport runoff from a hillslope to a catchment outlet. The second step is river channel routing, which is performed with one of two routing scheme options: (1) a kinematic wave tracking (KWT) routing procedure; and (2) an impulse response function – unit-hydrograph (IRF-UH) routing procedure. The mizuRoute tool also includes scripts (python, NetCDF operators) to pre-process spatial river network data. This paper demonstrates mizuRoute's capabilities to produce spatially distributed streamflow simulations based on river networks from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Fabric (GF) data set in which over 54 000 river segments and their contributing areas are mapped across the contiguous United States (CONUS). A brief analysis of model parameter sensitivity is also provided. The mizuRoute tool can assist model-based water resources assessments including studies of the impacts of climate change on streamflow.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS1997

Effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the south-eastern United States and the Gulf Coast of Mexico

The south-eastern United States and Gulf Coast of Mexico is physiographically diverse, although dominated by a broad coastal plain. Much of the region has a humid, warm temperate climate with little seasonality in precipitation but strong seasonality in runoff owing to high rates of summer evapotranspiration. The climate of southern Florida and eastern Mexico is subtropical with a distinct summer wet season and winter dry season. Regional climate models suggest that climate change resulting from a doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 may increase annual air temperatures by 3-4??C. Changes in precipitation are highly uncertain, but the most probable scenario shows higher levels over all but the northern, interior portions of the region, with increases primarily occurring in summer and occurring as more intense or clustered storms. Despite the increases in precipitation, runoff is likely to decline over much of the region owing to increases in evapotranspiration exceeding increases in precipitation. Only in Florida and the Gulf Coast areas of the US and Mexico are precipitation increases likely to exceed evapotranspiration increases, producing an increase in runoff. However, increases in storm intensity and clustering are likely to result in more extreme hydrographs, with larger peaks in flow but lower baseflows and longer periods of drought. The ecological effects of climate change on freshwaters of the region include: (1) a general increase in rates of primary production, organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling as a result of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons: (2) reduction in habitat for cool water species, particularly fish and macroinvertebrates in Appalachian streams; (3) reduction in water quality and in suitable habitat in summer owing to lower baseflows and intensification of the temperature-dissolved oxygen squeeze in many rivers and reservoirs; (4) reduction in organic matter storage and loss of organisms during more intense flushing events in some streams and wetlands; (5) shorter periods of inundation of riparian wetlands and greater drying of wetland soils, particularly in northern and inland areas; (6) expansion of subtropical species northwards, including several non-native nuisance species currently confined to southern Florida; (7) expansion of wetlands in Florida and coastal Mexico, but increase in eutrophication of Florida lakes as a result of greater runoff from urban and agricultural areas; and (8) changes in the flushing rate of estuaries that would alter their salinity regimes, stratification and water quality as well as influence productivity in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the expected climate change effects will exacerbate current anthropogenic stresses on the region's freshwater systems, including increasing demands for water, increasing waste heat loadings and land use changes that alter the quantity and quality of runoff to streams and reservoirs. Research is needed especially in several critical areas: long-term monitoring of key hydrological, chemical and biological properties (particularly water balances in small, forested catchments and temperature-sensitive species); experimental studies of the effects of warming on organisms and ecosystem processes under realistic conditions (e.g. in situ heating experiments); studies of the effects of natural hydrological variation on biological communities; and assessment of the effects of water management activities on organisms and ecosystem processes, including development and testing of management and restoration strategies designed to counteract changes in climate.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2020

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Taiya River near the West Creek Tributary, southeast Alaska

The Taiya River flows through the Chilkoot Trail Unit of Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park in southeast Alaska, which was founded to preserve cultural and historical resources and further understanding of natural processes active in the surrounding coastal-to-subarctic basin. Riverine processes exert an important influence on ecologically important boreal toad ( Anaxryus boreas boreas ), salmon [chum salmon ( Oncorhynchus keta ), pink salmon ( O. gorbushca ), and coho salmon ( O. kisutch )], and eulachon ( Thaleichthys pacificus ) habitats, erosion of the historic ghost town of Dyea and other cultural and historical artifacts, and recreational opportunities in the lower 7.5 kilometers (km) of the Taiya River valley bottom. Recurrent consideration of hydroelectric development in West Creek upstream of the park since the 1980s has included proposals for damming and diverting West Creek, which could alter the delivery of water and sediment to this section of the Taiya River. To improve understanding of the hydrologic dependence of park resources for the purposes of guiding effective monitoring and conservation, this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service, used a review of hydrologic data, collection of discrete suspended sediment data, geomorphic mapping, and analysis of historical aerial and ground photographs in a reconnaissance of formative geomorphic processes and hydrologic conditions in the lower 7.5 km of the Taiya River valley bottom. Streamflow and suspended sediment data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Taiya River and West Creek, combined with historical data, document conditions consistent with streams draining strongly glacierized basins in Alaska. Suspended sediment concentrations from samples collected concurrently over six varying flow levels during 2017–18 ranged from 6 to 284 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for the Taiya River and 13 to 162 mg/L for West Creek, which are similar to or slightly higher than historical values. For the common period of record (1970–77), correlation of daily mean discharge between the two streams was strongest (Pearson’s r = 0.97) during the prolonged May–October high-flow season and weakest ( r = 0.90) during the November–April low-flow season, when West Creek daily mean discharge was proportionally higher. For the Taiya River, streamflow data compared between the available periods of record (1970–77 and 2004–17) showed no decadal-scale patterns in mean annual discharge but did show a shift toward an earlier spring snowmelt pulse. Notable flooding in the Taiya River Basin includes glacial lake outburst floods from the Nourse River valley prior to and during the 1897–98 Gold Rush, a 2002 glacial lake outburst flood from the West Creek valley, and a 1967 rainfall-generated flood. Geomorphic mapping identified four categories of surfaces in the valley bottom—active main stem, abandoned main stem, alluvial fans, and emergent tidal surfaces. Using the maps, main-stem surfaces were subdivided into age categories to identify channel migration patterns from prior to 1940s to 2018. The valley bottom is dominated by active or abandoned channels of the Taiya River except at the extensive low-angle West Creek fan. The active main stem presently supports a mostly single-thread channel with bars and a few sloughs, but the channel actively moved and sometimes was braided within multiple, wider unvegetated corridors in 1894 and earlier. An inventory of 29 off-main-stem channels identified for the study indicates that abandoned main stem channels provide local topographic lows that can intercept groundwater or sustain tributary flow, facilitating the formation of most nonestuarine wetlands in the valley and sustaining important boreal toad breeding habitat. Within the active main stem corridor, the channel has episodically built and reworked meanders and bars, eroding more than one-half of the historic Dyea townsite, in response to glacially controlled delivery of water and sediment, flooding, inputs from West Creek, local features including large woody debris and beaver dams, and rapid uplift from isostatic rebound. West Creek has constructed a large, persistent fan, provoked kilometer-scale Taiya River channel change near the confluence, constructively added to high-season streamflow that affects Taiya River channel migration capacity, disproportionately contributed early-season streamflow, and possibly contributed to groundwater levels in the valley bottom. The progressive narrowing and stability of the main stem corridor, possibly a result of reduction in the magnitude or frequency of glacial lake outburst floods or glacial sediment delivery to streams, indicates less active future reworking of abandoned main-stem surfaces or regeneration of wetland features. The fluvial history of the Taiya River valley bottom collectively indicates continued channel change within a limited corridor, relative stability in wetland locations but uncertainty in stability of groundwater supply to them, and channel incision and extension in response to uplift.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States

This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow "center" timing (the day in the "water-year" on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States_the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier "center" timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p < 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2023

The consequences of neglecting reservoir storage in national-scale hydrologic models: An appraisal of key streamflow statistics

A better understanding of modeled streamflow errors related to basin reservoir storage is needed for large regions, which normally have many ungaged basins with reservoirs. We quantified the difference between modeled and observed streamflows for one process-based and three statistical-transfer hydrologic models, none of which explicitly accounted for reservoir storage. Streamflow statistics representing low to high flows, seasonality, annual variability, and daily autocorrelation were examined at 1082 study basins across the conterminous USA. All models increasingly overpredict (or decreasingly underpredict) observed annual maximum flows with increasing storage. Correlations between absolute values of errors for low-flow statistics and storage are often larger in magnitude than those for signed errors—additional storage is associated with increases in model errors in both directions even when its overall effect in one direction is weak. The rate of increase in absolute values of model errors was nonlinear for most statistics. For low flows, model errors had a change point to larger errors at 48 days of reservoir storage (relative to long-term mean daily flow); mean and high flows had change points at 147 to 176 days. We present predicted-to-observed errors for nine streamflow statistics over a large range of reservoir storage to help modelers and users of modeled streamflow understand the amount of storage for which explicit reservoir modeling is needed.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2019

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall) first need to be evaluated with respect to proven, direct measurement-based thresholds that use rain gauges and in situ soil moisture sensors. Here, we compare ground-based hydrologic data to overlapping satellite-based data before, during, and after a recent season of widespread shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay Area (California, USA). We then explore how the remotely sensed information could be used to empirically define hypothetical thresholds for shallow landsliding. We find that the ground-based thresholds developed with a single monitoring station show superior performance because the in situ soil saturation data better reflect the gravity-dominated subsurface flow conditions that are characteristic of hillslopes during the rainy season. Although the satellite-based thresholds can identify most of the landslide days, they include a greater number of false alarms due to overestimates of soil moisture between major storm events. To avoid the type of false alarms that are characteristic of our satellite-based thresholds, further post-processing of the near-surface hydrologic response data to better reflect gravity-dominated drainage should be integrated into satellite-based model outputs. Our results encourage further deployment of ground stations in landslide-prone terrain and cautious exploration of satellite-based hydro-meteorological thresholds where in situ networks are nonexistent.

California↗

USGS2009

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951-2006 using IBIS model

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run-off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run-off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run-off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run-off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run-off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run-off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2003

Methodology for estimating times of remediation associated with monitored natural attenuation

Natural attenuation processes combine to disperse, immobilize, and biologically transform anthropogenic contaminants, such as petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated ethenes, in ground-water systems. The time required for these processes to lower contaminant concentrations to levels protective of human health and the environment, however, varies widely between different hydrologic systems, different chemical contaminants, and varying amounts of contaminants. This report outlines a method for estimating timeframes required for natural attenuation processes, such as dispersion, sorption, and biodegradation, to lower contaminant concentrations and mass to predetermined regulatory goals in groundwater systems. The time-of-remediation (TOR) problem described in this report is formulated as three interactive components: (1) estimating the length of a contaminant plume once it has achieved a steady-state configuration from a source area of constant contaminant concentration, (2) estimating the time required for a plume to shrink to a smaller, regulatoryacceptable configuration when source-area contaminant concentrations are lowered by engineered methods, and (3) estimating the time needed for nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) contaminants to dissolve, disperse, and biodegrade below predetermined levels in contaminant source areas. This conceptualization was used to develop Natural Attenuation Software (NAS), an interactive computer aquifers. NAS was designed as a screening tool and requires the input of detailed site information about hydrogeology, redox conditions, and the distribution of contaminants. Because NAS is based on numerous simplifications of hydrologic, microbial, and geochemical processes, the program may introduce unacceptable errors for highly heterogeneous hydrologic systems. In such cases, application of the TOR framework outlined in this report may require more detailed, site-specific digital modeling. The NAS software may be downloaded from the Web site http://www.cee.vt.edu/NAS/ Application of NAS illustrates several general characteristics shared by all TOR problems. First, the distance of stabilization of a contaminant plume is strongly dependent on the natural attenuation capacity of particular ground-water systems. The time that it takes a plume to reach a steady-state configuration, however, is independent of natural attenuation capacity. Rather, the time of stabilization is most strongly affected by the sorptive capacity of the aquifer, which is dependent on the organic matter content of the aquifer sediments, as well as the sorptive properties of individual contaminants. As a general rule, a high sorptive capacity retards a plume.s growth or shrinkage, and increases the time of stabilization. Finally, the time of NAPL dissolution depends largely on NAPL mass, composition, geometry, and hydrologic factors, such as ground-water flow rates. An example TOR analysis for petroleum hydrocarbon NAPL was performed for the Laurel Bay site in South Carolina. About 500 to 1,000 pounds of gasoline leaked into the aquifer at this site in 1991, and the NAS simulations suggested that TOR would be on the order of 10 years for soluble and poorly sorbed compounds, such as benzene and methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE). Conversely, TOR would be on the order of 40 years for less soluble, more strongly sorbed compounds, such as toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (TEX). These TOR estimates are roughly consistent with contaminant concentrations observed over 10 years of monitoring at this site where benzene and MTBE concentrations were observed to decrease rapidly and are approaching regulatory maximum concentration limits, whereas toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene concentrations decreased at a slower rate and have remained relatively high. An example TOR analysis for petroleum hydrocarbon NAPL was performed for the Laurel Bay site in South Carolina.

South Carolina↗

USGS2025

The influence of mountain streamflow on nearshore ecosystem metabolism in a large, oligotrophic lake across a drought and a wet year

The influence of streamflow can be highly heterogeneous around lake edges, making it challenging to predict how benthic productivity in the littoral zone responds to hydroclimatic change. The degree to which streamflow affects nearshore productivity varies as a function of catchment characteristics, internal lake morphometry, and processes. This study investigates the relative influence of streamflow on nearshore metabolism (e.g., gross primary productivity [GPP], ecosystem respiration [ER], and net ecosystem productivity [NEP]) for shores with large, small, or no stream inflows (four locations across two shores) during two contrasting water years (one drought and one wet) in Lake Tahoe (Nevada/California, USA). Using Bayesian structural equation modeling, we found streamflow decreased water temperature, benthic light, and GPP across both years. Compared to the drought year, the subsequent wet year had 54% higher annual streamflow, 37% less light, and lower NEP at locations with large or small inflows (39% Δ −0.32 mmol O₂ m −3 d −1% and 49% Δ −1.19 mmol O₂ m −3 d −1 , respectively). During the wet year, we observed a 68% increase in the negative association between streamflow and nearshore GPP at the large inflow and a 62% decrease in the positive association between streamflow and GPP at the small inflow. This work demonstrates how oligotrophic littoral productivity varies across shorelines and in response to hydrological conditions, with streamflow and precipitation exerting contrasting effects depending on the proximity to inflowing streams. Our results suggest future lake responses to climate volatility depend on spatial and temporal hydrologic connectivity to catchments and upland processes.

California, Nevada↗