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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Projecting management-relevant change of undeveloped coastal barriers with the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) v1.0

Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time steps. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA. Simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework's utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2020

Drivers and consequences of alternative landscape futures on wildlife distributions in New England, United States

In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over fifty years (2010 to 2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2018

Chapter 7: Structural configuration of the Central African Copperbelt: Roles of evaporites in structural evolution, basin hydrology, and ore location

The Central African Copperbelt is the world’s premier sediment-hosted Cu province. It is contained in the Katangan basin, an intracratonic rift that records onset of growth at ~840 Ma and inversion at ~535 Ma. In the Copperbelt region, the basin has a crudely symmetrical form, with a central depocenter maximum containing ~11 km of strata positioned on the northern side of the border of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, and marginal condensed sequences <2 km in thickness. This fundamental extensional geometry was preserved through orogenesis, although complex configurations related to halokinesis are prevalent in central and northern parts of the basin, whereas to the south, relatively high-grade metamorphism occurred as a result of basement-involved thrusting and burial. The largest Cu ± Co ores, both stratiform and vein-controlled, are known from the periphery of the basin and transition to U-Ni-Co and Pb-Zn-Cu ores toward the depocenter maximum. Most ore types are positioned within a ~500-m halo to former near-basin-wide salt sheets or associated halokinetic structures, the exception being that located in extreme basin marginal positions, where primary salt was not deposited. Stratiform Cu ± Co ores occur at intrasalt (Congolese-type), subsalt (Zambian-type), and salt-marginal (Kamoa-type) positions. Bulk crush-leach fluid inclusion data from the first two of these deposit types reveal a principal association with residual evaporitic brines. A likely signature of the ore fluids, the brines were generated during deposition of the basin-wide salt-sheets and occupied voluminous sub and intrasalt aquifers from ~800 Ma. Associated intense Mg ± K metasomatism was restricted to these levels, indicating that capping and enclosing salt remained impermeable for prolonged periods of the basin’s history, isolating the deep-seated aquifers from the upper part of the basin fill. From ~765 to 740 Ma, the salt sheets in the Congolese part of the basin were halokinetically modified. Salt was withdrawn laterally to feed diapirs, ultimately leading to localized welding or breaching of the former hydrological seal. At these points, deeper-level residual brines were drawn into the intrasalt stratigraphy to interact with reducing elements and form the stratiform ores. It is probable that salt welding occurred diachronously across the northern and central parts of the basin, depending upon the interplay of original salt thickness, rates and volumes of sediment supply during accumulation of salt overburden, and tectonism. The variable timing of this fundamental change in hydrologic architecture is poorly constrained to the period of halokinetic onset to the earliest stages of orogenesis; however, the geometry of the ores and associated alteration patterns demands that mineralization preceded the characteristically complex fragmentation of the host strata. Thus, while an early orogenic timing is permissible, mineralization during the later stages of extensional basin development was more likely. In situ reducing elements that host Zambian-type stratiform Cu ± Co ores were in continuous hydrological communication with subsalt aquifers, such that ore formation could have commenced from the ~800 Ma brine introduction event. The nonhalokinetic character of the salt in this region allowed the intact seal to have maintained suprahydrostatic pore pressures, facilitating fluid circulation until late stages of basin growth and possibly early stage orogenesis. Leachate data from ores positioned in the depocenter maximum and southern parts of the basin that underwent relatively high grade metamorphism record mixing of residual and halite dissolution-related brines. Salt dissolution was likely triggered by emergence of diapirs or thermally and/or mechanically induced increased permeability of halite. While it is certain that halite dissolution occurred during and after orogenesis, conditions favorable for salt dissolution may have existed locally during extension in the depocenter maximum. The permeability of salt increased to a point where it became the principal aquifer. The salt’s properties as an aquiclude lost, originally deep-seated residual brine mixed with new phases of evaporite dissolution-related brine to produce ores at middle levels of the basin fill. During the final stages of ore formation, recorded by postorogenic Pb-Zn-Cu mineralization in the depocenter maximum, the salinity of fluids was dominantly derived from the dissolution of remnant bodies of salt.

Central African Copperbelt↗

USGS2006

An episode of rapid bedrock channel incision during the last glacial cycle, measured with 10Be

We use 10Be to infer when, how fast, and why the Susquehanna River incised through bedrock along the U.S. Atlantic seaboard, one of the world's most prominent and ancient passive margins. Although the rate at which large rivers incise rock is a fundamental control on the development of landscapes, relatively few studies have directly measured how quickly such incision occurs either in tectonically active environments or along passive margins. Exposure ages of fluvially carve d, bedrock strath terraces, preserved along the lower Susquehanna River, demonstrate that even along a passive margin, large rivers are capable of incising through rock for short periods of time at rates approaching those recorded in tectonically active regions, such as the Himalayas. Over eighty samples, collected along and between three prominent levels of strath terraces within Holtwood Gorge, indicate that the Susquehanna River incised more than 10 meters into the Appalachian Piedmont during the last glacial cycle. Beginning ???36 ka, incision rates increased dramatically, and remained elevated until ???14 ka. The northern half of the Susquehanna basin was glaciated during the late Wisconsinan; however, similar rates and timing of incision occurred in the unglaciated Potomac River basin immediately to the south. The concurrence of incision periods on both rivers suggests that glaciation and associated meltwater were not the primary drivers of incision. Instead, it appears that changing climatic conditions during the late Pleistocene promoted an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flood events capable of exceeding thresholds for rock detachment and bedrock erosion, thus enabling a short-lived episode of rapid incision into rock. Although this study has constraine d the timing and rate of bedrock incision along the largest river draining the Atlantic passive margin, the dates alone cannot explain fully why, or by what processes, this incision occurred. However, cosmogenic dating offers compelling evidence that episodes of rapid incision into bedrock are tied to glacial cycles and changes in global climate. These results, and the methods we employ, provide valuable insights into the nature of bedrock channel incision, not only along the Susquehanna River and passive margins, but also across a wide range of settings around the globe. Because river incision into bedrock transmits the effects of changing climate and tectonics through fluvial networks to hillslopes, comprehending when, where, and why rivers incise has important implications for the evolution of landscapes.

American Journal of Science↗

USGS2019

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2012

A two-phase sampling design for increasing detections of rare species in occupancy surveys

1. Occupancy estimation is a commonly used tool in ecological studies owing to the ease at which data can be collected and the large spatial extent that can be covered. One major obstacle to using an occupancy-based approach is the complications associated with designing and implementing an efficient survey. These logistical challenges become magnified when working with rare species when effort can be wasted in areas with none or very few individuals. 2. Here, we develop a two-phase sampling approach that mitigates these problems by using a design that places more effort in areas with higher predicted probability of occurrence. We compare our new sampling design to traditional single-season occupancy estimation under a range of conditions and population characteristics. We develop an intuitive measure of predictive error to compare the two approaches and use simulations to assess the relative accuracy of each approach. 3. Our two-phase approach exhibited lower predictive error rates compared to the traditional single-season approach in highly spatially correlated environments. The difference was greatest when detection probability was high (0·75) regardless of the habitat or sample size. When the true occupancy rate was below 0·4 (0·05-0·4), we found that allocating 25% of the sample to the first phase resulted in the lowest error rates. 4. In the majority of scenarios, the two-phase approach showed lower error rates compared to the traditional single-season approach suggesting our new approach is fairly robust to a broad range of conditions and design factors and merits use under a wide variety of settings. 5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation and management of rare species are a challenging task facing natural resource managers. It is critical for studies involving rare species to efficiently allocate effort and resources as they are usually of a finite nature. We believe our approach provides a framework for optimal allocation of effort while maximizing the information content of the data in an attempt to provide the highest conservation value per unit of effort.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2014

Influence of whitebark pine decline on fall habitat use and movements of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

When abundant, seeds of the high-elevation whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis ) are an important fall food for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Rates of bear mortality and bear/human conflicts have been inversely associated with WBP productivity. Recently, mountain pine beetles ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) have killed many cone-producing WBP trees. We used fall (15 August–30 September) Global Positioning System locations from 89 bear years to investigate temporal changes in habitat use and movements during 2000–2011. We calculated Manly–Chesson (MC) indices for selectivity of WBP habitat and secure habitat (≥500 m from roads and human developments), determined dates of WBP use, and documented net daily movement distances and activity radii. To evaluate temporal trends, we used regression, model selection, and candidate model sets consisting of annual WBP production, sex, and year. One-third of sampled grizzly bears had fall ranges with little or no mapped WBP habitat. Most other bears (72%) had a MC index above 0.5, indicating selection for WBP habitats. From 2000 to 2011, mean MC index decreased and median date of WBP use shifted about 1 week later. We detected no trends in movement indices over time. Outside of national parks, there was no correlation between the MC indices for WBP habitat and secure habitat, and most bears (78%) selected for secure habitat. Nonetheless, mean MC index for secure habitat decreased over the study period during years of good WBP productivity. The wide diet breadth and foraging plasticity of grizzly bears likely allowed them to adjust to declining WBP. Bears reduced use of WBP stands without increasing movement rates, suggesting they obtained alternative fall foods within their local surroundings. However, the reduction in mortality risk historically associated with use of secure, high-elevation WBP habitat may be diminishing for bears residing in multiple-use areas.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Avian eggshell thickness in relation to egg morphometrics, embryonic development, and mercury contamination

Eggshell thickness is important for physiological, ecological, and ecotoxicological studies on birds; however, empirical eggshell thickness measurements for many species and regions are limited. We measured eggshell thickness at the equator and the egg poles for 12 avian species and related eggshell thickness to egg morphometrics, embryonic development, egg status, and mercury contamination. Within an egg, eggshells were approximately 5.1% thicker at the equator than the sharp pole of the egg, although this difference varied among species (0.6%–9.8%). Within Forster's tern ( Sterna forsteri ), where eggshell thickness was measured at 5 equally spaced positions along the longitude of the egg, eggshell thickness changed more rapidly near the sharp pole of the egg compared to near the blunt pole of the egg. Within species, eggshell thickness was related to egg width and egg volume for six of the 12 species but was not related to egg length for any species. Among species, mean eggshell thickness was strongly related to species mean egg width, egg length, egg volume, and bird body mass, although species mean body mass was the strongest predictor of species mean eggshell thickness. Using three species (American avocet [ Recurvirostra americana ], black‐necked stilt [ Himantopus mexicanus ], and Forster's tern), whose nests were carefully monitored, eggshell thickness (including the eggshell membrane) did not differ among viable, naturally abandoned, dead, or failed‐to‐hatch eggs; was not related to total mercury concentrations of the egg content; and did not decrease with embryonic age. Our study also provides a review of all existing eggshell thickness data for these 12 species.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2007

Ground water redox zonation near La Pine, Oregon: Relation to river position within the aquifer–riparian zone continuum

Increasing residential development since in the 1960s has lead to increases in nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water in parts of the 247 square mile study area near La Pine, Oregon. Denitrification is the dominant nitrate-removal process that occurs in suboxic ground water, and suboxic ground water serves as a barrier to transport of most nitrate in the aquifer. Oxic ground water, on the other hand, represents a potential pathway for nitrate transport from terrestrial recharge areas to the Deschutes and Little Deschutes Rivers. The effects of present and potential future discharge of ground-water nitrate into the nitrogen-limited Deschutes and Little Deschutes Rivers are not known. However, additions of nitrogen to nitrogen-limited rivers can lead to increases in primary productivity which, in turn, can increase the magnitudes of dissolved oxygen and pH swings in river water. An understanding of the distribution of oxic ground water in the near-river environment could facilitate understanding the vulnerability of these rivers and could be a useful tool for management of these rivers. In this study, transects of temporary wells were installed in sub-river sediments beneath the Deschutes and Little Deschutes Rivers near La Pine to characterize near-river reduction/oxidation (redox) conditions near the ends of ground-water flow paths. Samples from transects installed near the center of the riparian zone or flood plain were consistently suboxic. Where transects were near edges of riparian zones, most ground-water samples also were suboxic. Oxic ground water (other than hyporheic water) was uncommon, and was only detected near the outside edge of some meander bends. This pattern of occurrence likely reflects geochemical controls throughout the aquifer as well as geochemical processes in the microbiologically active riparian zone near the end of ground-water flow paths. Younger, typically less reduced ground water generally enters near-river environments through peripheral zones, whereas older, typically more reduced ground water tends to discharge closer to the center of the river corridor. Such distributions of redox state reflect ground-water movement and geochemical evolution at the aquifer-scale. Redox state of ground water undergoes additional modification as ground water nears discharge points in or adjacent to rivers, where riparian zone processes can be important. Lateral erosion of river systems away from the center of the flood plain can decrease or even eliminate interactions between ground water and reducing riparian zone sediments. Thus, ground water redox patterns in near-river sediments appear to reflect the position of a river within the riparian zone/aquifer continuum. Spatial heterogeneity of redox conditions near the river/aquifer boundary (that is, near the riverbed) makes it difficult to extrapolate transect-scale findings to a precise delineation of the oxic-suboxic boundary in the near-river environment of the entire study area. However, the understanding of relations between near-river redox state and proximity to riparian zone edges provides a basis for applying these results to the study-area scale, and could help guide management efforts such as nitrogen-reduction actions or establishment of Total Maximum Daily Load criteria. Coupling the ground-water redox-based understanding of river vulnerability with ground-water particle-tracking-based characterization of connections between upgradient recharge areas and receiving rivers demonstrates one means of linking effects of potential nitrate loads at the beginning of ground-water flow paths with river vulnerability.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers ( Setophaga caerulescens ) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2019

Integrating behavior and physiology into strategies for amphibian conservation

The amphibian decline crisis has been challenging to address because of the complexity of factors—and their multitude of interactive effects—that drive this global issue. Dissecting such complexity could benefit from strategies that integrate multiple disciplines and address the mechanistic underpinnings of population declines and extirpations. We examine how the disciplines of behavior and physiology could be used to develop conservation strategies for amphibians and identify eight research gaps that provide future directions for the emerging fields of conservation behavior and conservation physiology. We present two case studies on imperiled salamanders that show how studies of behavior and physiology may support amphibian conservation efforts. We found several applications of stress physiology to amphibian conservation, but long-term studies are needed to understand how stress ultimately affects individual fitness and population resilience. Additionally, multiple measures of physiological health are needed to provide a more holistic assessment of an individual’s overall condition. Previous behavioral and physiological studies have been instrumental for understanding how amphibians respond to habitat modification, pathogens and parasites, contaminants, and invasive species. Some behavior-based approaches to mitigating invasive species issues have been successful in short-term studies with individual species. However, widespread application of these tactics has not yet been integrated into conservation and management strategies for ecologically-similar species. A diversity of modeling approaches has enhanced understanding of how climate change may impact amphibian populations, but model predictions need empirical tests to provide conservation managers with workable approaches to multiple perturbations associated with global environmental change. We illustrate that behavior and physiology can have broad utility for amphibian conservation, but evidence is scant that such studies have actually been used to inform strategies for amphibian conservation and management.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Decision support for aquatic restoration based on species-specific responses to disturbance

Disturbances to aquatic habitats are not uniformly distributed within the Great Lakes and acute effects can be strongest in nearshore areas where both landscape and within lake effects can have strong influence. Furthermore, different fish species respond to disturbances in different ways. A means to identify and evaluate locations and extent of disturbances that affect fish is needed throughout the Great Lakes. We used partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis to separate “natural” effects on nearshore assemblages from disturbance effects. Species-specific quadratic models of fish abundance as functions of in-lake disturbance or watershed-derived disturbance were developed separately for each of 35 species and lakewide predictions mapped for Lake Erie. Most responses were unimodal and more species decreased in abundance with increasing watershed disturbance than increased. However, eight species increased in abundance with current in-lake disturbance conditions. Optimum Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values less than the gradient mean, but decreased continuously from minimum watershed disturbance to higher values. Bands of optimum in-lake conditions occurred throughout the eastern and western portions of the Lake Erie nearshore zone; some areas were less disturbed than desirable. However, watershed-derived disturbance conditions were generally poor for Yellow Perch throughout the lake. In contrast, optimum Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values greater than the gradient mean and continuously increased with increasing watershed disturbance. Smallmouth Bass responses to disturbance indicated that most of the nearshore zone was less disturbed than is desirable and were most abundant in areas that the Yellow Perch response indicated were highly disturbed. Mapping counts of species response models that agreed on the disturbance level in each spatial unit of the nearshore zone showed a fine-scale mosaic of areas in which habitat restoration may benefit many or few species. This tool may assist managers in prioritizing conservation and restoration efforts and evaluating environmental conditions that may be improved.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Living on the edge: Predicting songbird response to management and environmental changes across an ecotone

Effective wildlife management requires robust information regarding population status, habitat requirements, and likely responses to changing resource conditions. Single-species management may inadequately conserve communities and result in undesired effects to non-target species. Thus, management can benefit from understanding habitat relationships for multiple species. Pinyon pine and juniper ( Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) are expanding into sagebrush-dominated ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems within North America and mechanical removal of these trees is frequently conducted to restore sagebrush ecosystems and recover Greater Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). However, pinyon-juniper removal effects on non-target species are poorly understood, and changing pinyon-juniper woodland dynamics, climate, and anthropogenic development may obscure conservation priorities. To better predict responses to changing resource conditions, evaluate non-target effects of pinyon-juniper removal, prioritize species for conservation, and inform species recovery within pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems, we modeled population trends and density-habitat relationships for four sagebrush-associated, four pinyon-juniper-associated, and three generalist songbird species with respect to these ecosystems. We fit hierarchical population models to point count data collected throughout the western United States from 2008 to 2020. We found regional population changes for 10 of 11 species investigated; 6 of which increased in the highest elevation region of our study. Our models indicate pinyon-juniper removal will benefit Brewer's Sparrow ( Spizella breweri ), Green-tailed Towhee ( Pipilo chlorurus ), and Sage Thrasher ( Oreoscoptes montanus ) densities. Conversely, we predict largest negative effects of pinyon-juniper removal for species occupying early successional pinyon-juniper woodlands: Bewick's Wren ( Thryomanes bewickii ), Black-throated Gray Warblers ( Setophaga nigrescens ), Gray Flycatcher ( Empidonax wrightii ), and Juniper Titmouse ( Baeolophus ridgwayi ). Our results highlight the importance of considering effects to non-target species before implementing large-scale habitat manipulations. Our modeling framework can help prioritize species and regions for conservation action, infer effects of management interventions and a changing environment on wildlife, and help land managers balance habitat requirements across ecosystems.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2009

Quality characteristics of ground water in the Ozark aquifer of northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma, 2006-07

Because of water quantity and quality concerns within the Ozark aquifer, the State of Kansas in 2004 issued a moratorium on most new appropriations from the aquifer until results were made available from a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Kansas Water Office. The purposes of the study were to develop a regional ground-water flow model and a water-quality assessment of the Ozark aquifer in northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma (study area). In 2006 and 2007, water-quality samples were collected from 40 water-supply wells completed in the Ozark aquifer and spatially distributed throughout the study area. Samples were analyzed for physical properties, dissolved solids and major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and selected isotopes. This report presents the results of the water-quality assessment part of the cooperative study. Water-quality characteristics were evaluated relative to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards. Secondary Drinking-Water Regulations were exceeded for dissolved solids (11 wells), sulfate and chloride (2 wells each), fluoride (3 wells), iron (4 wells), and manganese (2 wells). Maximum Contaminant Levels were exceeded for turbidity (3 wells) and fluoride (1 well). The Maximum Contaminant Level Goal for lead (0 milligrams per liter) was exceeded in water from 12 wells. Analyses of isotopes in water from wells along two 60-mile long ground-water flow paths indicated that water in the Ozark aquifer was at least 60 years old but the upper age limit is uncertain. The source of recharge water for the wells along the flow paths appeared to be of meteoric origin because of isotopic similarity to the established Global Meteoric Water Line and a global precipitation relation. Additionally, analysis of hydrogen-3 (3H) and carbon-14 (14C) indicated that there was possible leakage of younger ground water into the lower part of the Ozark aquifer. This may be caused by cracks or fissures in the confining unit that separates the upper and lower parts of the aquifer, poorly constructed or abandoned wells, or historic mining activities. Analyses of major ions in water from wells along the flow paths indicated a transition from freshwater in the east to saline water in the west. Generally, ground water along flow paths evolved from a calcium magnesium bicarbonate type to a sodium calcium bicarbonate or a sodium calcium chloride bicarbonate type as water moved from recharge areas in Missouri into Kansas. Much of this evolution occurred within the last 20 to 25 miles of the flow paths along a water-quality transition zone near the Kansas-Missouri State line and west. The water quality of the Kansas part of the Ozark aquifer is degraded compared to the Missouri part. Geophysical and well-bore flow information and depth-dependent water-quality samples were collected from a large-capacity (1,900-2,300 gallons per minute) municipal-supply well to evaluate vertical ground-water flow accretion and variability in water-quality characteristics at different levels. Although the 1,050-foot deep supply well had 500 feet of borehole open to the Ozark aquifer, 77 percent of ground-water flow entering the borehole came from two 20-foot thick rock layers above the 1,000-foot level. For the most part, water-quality characteristics changed little from the deepest sample to the well-head sample, and upwelling of saline water from deeper geologic formations below the well was not evident. However, more saline water may be present below the bottom of the well.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS1989

Geology of the Arabian Peninsula; shield area of western Saudi Arabia

Western Arabia lies within the low-latitude desert of north Africa and the Middle East, the core being the Arabian segment of the African Shield. The core of complex basement rocks accounts for about 670,000 km 2 , or one-third of the Arabian Peninsula. Reconnaissance mapping of these crystalline rocks, together with bordering sedimentary rocks and volcanic flows, begun in 1950, resulted during the next 13 years in a series of geologic and geographic maps without extensive texts. The maps served as general guides for development of natural resources, including water supplies, ore deposits, and building materials. An intensive exploration program that began in 1963 and involved numerous geologists has vastly increased geologic information. Rainfall in Arabia is meager and episodic, and vegetation is sparse except in isolated copses on the crest of the Hejaz Range. Comparison of flora with similar species in the Sudan, where records of rainfall have long been kept, allows evaluation of mean annual precipitation. Wandering bedouin following fodder created a delicate balance between population and water supply-now disturbed by wells drilled in alluvium and lava fields. A trapezoidal region of Precambrian crystalline rocks lies along the northeast flank of the Red Sea, with two long prongs extending northwest and southeast for a total of 1,800 km. These basement rocks of the Arabian Shield are well exposed on the uplands, scarp mountains, and coastal pediments where the Phanerozoic cover rocks have been stripped as a result of Paleozoic epeirogeny and Tertiary ramping. The shield outcrops are divided into three tectonic provinces by N. 45°W.- trending shear zones of the Najd fault system of latest Proterozoic and possibly earliest Paleozoic time. The southwestern province, the 'Asir1 upland, was sharply uplifted and tilted to the northeast during the Neogene. The northwestern province, consisting of the Ash Shifa'- Hisma upland as well as Jabal Shammar farther east, similarly was uplifted and tilted. These two provinces are separated by the flat-lying median N ajd province, which is chiefly bounded by the principal Najd faults. The outcrops of the shield rocks are of the Late Proterozoic Eonupper Riphean to Vendian or Infracambrian epochs, including the Ediacarian System. The most reliable isotopic ages range from about 900 to 560 m.y., but some Middle Proterozoic rocks may be present in the easternmost shield. The rocks are divided into six lithostratigraphic sequences, two plutonic suites, and an ophiolitic suite. The mafic and ultramafic volcanic and plutonic rocks of the ophiolitic suite everywhere were emplaced tectonically and are probably of different ages in different places. Some ophiolite occurs as obducted blocks, but most is highly deformed and altered to serpentinite in fault zones that mostly define sutures between different tectonic blocks or terranes within the shield. Three of the lithostratigraphic sequences consist of mafic to silicic volcanic rocks and volcanic-derived clastic rocks which, with their subvolcanic plutonic rocks of a dioritic suite, probably formed in oceanic island arcs during convergent plate tectonism. These rocks make up the primary, or first-formed, crust of the shield. Chemical analyses show that the primary shield rocks, regardless of age, are principally calc-alkalic with some associated tholeiitic varieties. Most of the layered rocks are andesitic, but they range from basalt to dacite and in places contain intercalated pillow basalt, marble, chert, and carbonaceous or graphitic schist. Most of the plutonic rocks of the dioritic suite are dioritic, but they range from gabbro to trondhjemite and rarely contain potassium feldspar. The sequences and an associated dioritic suite become younger toward the eastern shield, that is, the primary crust of the shield youngs toward the east. Two western sequences consist of the Jiddah (Samran) and BaishBahah Groups and range in radiometric age from about 900 to 800 m.y.; the eastern sequence consists of the Halaban (Hulayfah) Group and ranges from 800 to about 700 m.y. During subsequent orogeny, most of the rocks were intensely deformed and mostly metamorphosed to upper greenschist facies, but rising in places to the almandine-amphibolite facies. Two other lithostratigraphic sequences with an associated plutonic granitic suite are the products of two mountain-building episodes during which the primary crust was greatly thickened and converted into craton. The two sequences, including largely the Ablah (Al Ays) and Murdama (Shammar) Groups, consist of abundant sedimentary rocks, commonly arkosic, that are the erosional products of the orogenic mountains. They are several thousand meters thick. Less abundant calc-alkalic to alkalic volcanic rocks, commonly dacitic and rhyolitic, are intercalated with the sedimentary rocks. The plutonic rocks of the granitic suite in association with both sequences have syntectonic and posttectonic phases, are products of the orogenies, and are the principal new ingredients making up the craton. Gneiss domes were a significant part of these cratonization orogenies. In association with orogenic crustal heating, some of the low-density, more silicic tonalitic and trondhjemitic rocks of the primary crust rose as gneiss domes. Partial melting in the middle or lower crust below the gneiss domes produced large volumes of granitic magma that intruded the gneiss domes as granodioritic batholiths. The Ablah Group and the older part of the granitic suite are about 775 to 740 Ma old and are associated with the Ablah orogeny and early cratonization in the western and earlier formed half of the shield. The Murdama (Shammar) Group and the younger part of the granitic suite are about 660 to 580 Ma old and are associated with the culminant orogeny and late cratonization that was shieldwide. The granitic suite during both orogenies consists of early, syntectonic granodiorite batholiths associated with the gneiss domes and late, posttectonic monzogranite plutons. Only during the culminant orogeny, late magmatic evolution produced syenogranite and alkali-feldspar granite commonly in circular and ring-structured plutons and with associated explosive volcanic deposits (Shammar Group); final products, some of which have economic potential, were peralkalic and peraluminous. The late plutonism of the culminant orogeny was distinctly bimodal in that subordinate gabbroic rocks are associated with the granites. Various building blocks or terranes of the andesitic and dioritic primary crust were collisionally agglomerated during the Ablah orogeny, early cratonization, whereas the entire shield as currently exposed was further collisionally accreted and compressionally consolidated during the culminant orogeny, final cratonization. Thousands of kilometers of oceanic crust had to be subducted in about 300 m.y. to form the large primary crust of the Arabian Shield. The inevitable collisional events during consumption of such a large volume of oceanic crust invariably led to numerous collisional orogenies that collectively encompass the widely known Pan African tectonic episode. The youngest lithostratigraphic sequence, the Jubaylah Group, is essentially postcratonic, although it is the end product of the collisional culminant orogeny. Final east-west compression of the entire shield from about 580 to 560 m.y. caused the craton to fracture along the large northwest-trending, left-lateral faults and elsewhere along lesser, northeast-trending, right-lateral, conjugate faults of the N ajd fault system. Erosional products of this more localized deformation were the sedimentary rocks of the Jubaylah Group, which also includes intercalated andesitic to basaltic volcanic rocks of a mafic alkalic compositional trend. The collisional edge of an old continental plate (or tectonic fragments thereof), suspected on the eastern edge of the Arabian Shield, has not been shown with certainty to be exposed. Presumably, widespread contamination from such an old continental crust affects U/Pb, Sm/Nd, Rb/Sr, and common lead ratios in the young plutonic rocks of the easternmost shield. One mass of anorthosite near Jabal Khida' on the central eastern edge of the shield may be a fragment of this old continental plate in that associated granodiorite may be as old as 1,600 to 1,800 Ma. Epeirogenic uplift, erosion, and cooling of the uppermost shield during Early and Middle Cambrian time is indicated by an average fission track age of 510±52 m.y., on sphene from diorite (hornblende K-Ar age of 615±12 m.y.) in the southwestern part of the shield. The hiatus was followed by extensive deposition of the Cambro-Ordovician Saq Sandstone in the north and northeast and the Wajid Sandstone in the southeast and south of the shield. The Cambrian Siq Sandstone had already been deposited in the northern part. During the middle and late Paleozoic, broad epeirogeny caused further erosion of the shield until marine transgression deposited the Upper Permian Khuff Formation at least in the eastern part of the shield. In the southwestern shield, the nonmarine Upper Triassic Khums Sandstone was deposited variably on Wajid or Precambrian rocks and is overlain by limestone of the middle Upper Jurassic Amran Formation. Except for shallow marine sandstone of problematic Cretaceous age deposited on the Amran Formation in the south.western shield and on Precambrian rocks in the northwestern shield, the younger beds on the shield are Paleocene and younger, with the possibility that the lowermost are upper Maestrichtian. The early Tertiary beds contain vertebrate fossils of coastal marine or estuarine environment 250 km east of the Red Sea in the central shield. Marginal marine sediments were deposited in a western tongue of the latest Tethys Sea as late as Eocene on the western shield and at least as far south as Jiddah. The great harrats of flood basalt erupted on th~ western shield during late Oligocene and early Miocene at the same time a 2,000-kmlong continental rift valley developed along the future Red Sea axis. Within this rift valley, Baid freshwater tuffaceous lakebeds were deposited between mafic and silicic volcanoes. During late early Miocene time, the Red Sea opened at a rate of 4.4 cm/yr in a firststage movement while continental dikes and swarms of oceanic tholeiitic dikes, gabbro, and granophyre plutonic rocks were intruded into the rift sedimentary and volcanic rocks at the newly formed continental margin. The continental margin was deformed and greatly extended at this time. About 14 or 15 m.y., as the first-stage spreading stopped, the Red Sea Escarpment rose; its erosion caused deposition of coarse conglomerate of the Bathan Formation. About 3,000 m of evaporite was deposited on the young Red Sea oceanic crust during the late Miocene desiccation crisis. A second stage of sea-floor spreading about 4-5 m.y. produced the Red Sea axial trough, consisting of oceanic crust, as well as renewed uplift and tilting of the three tectonic provinces in response to compression from counterclockwise rotation against the Dead Sea Rift. This late movement caused widespread major stream capture, especially along the wadis that formerly drained southwesterly or northwesterly, the channels turning westward through narrow gorges to the coastal plain and the Red Sea.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2022

Optimizing trilateration estimates for tracking fine-scale movement of wildlife using automated radio telemetry networks

A major advancement in the use of radio telemetry has been the development of automated radio tracking systems (ARTS), which allow animal movements to be tracked continuously. A new ARTS approach is the use of a network of simple radio receivers (nodes) that collect radio signal strength (RSS) values from animal-borne radio transmitters. However, the use of RSS-based localization methods in wildlife tracking research is new, and analytical approaches critical for determining high-quality location data have lagged behind technological developments. We present an analytical approach to optimize RSS-based localization estimates for a node network designed to track fine-scale animal movements in a localized area. Specifically, we test the application of analytical filters (signal strength, distance among nodes) to data from real and simulated node networks that differ in the density and configuration of nodes. We evaluate how different filters and network configurations (density and regularity of node spacing) may influence the accuracy of RSS-based localization estimates. Overall, the use of signal strength and distance-based filters resulted in a 3- to 9-fold increase in median accuracy of location estimates over unfiltered estimates, with the most stringent filters providing location estimates with a median accuracy ranging from 28 to 73 m depending on the configuration and spacing of the node network. We found that distance filters performed significantly better than RSS filters for networks with evenly spaced nodes, but the advantage diminished when nodes were less uniformly spaced within a network. Our results not only provide analytical approaches to greatly increase the accuracy of RSS-based localization estimates, as well as the computer code to do so, but also provide guidance on how to best configure node networks to maximize the accuracy and capabilities of such systems for wildlife tracking studies.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Quantitative acoustic differentiation of cryptic species illustrated with King and Clapper rails

Reliable species identification is vital for survey and monitoring programs. Recently, the development of digital technology for recording and analyzing vocalizations has assisted in acoustic surveying for cryptic, rare, or elusive species. However, the quantitative tools that exist for species differentiation are still being refined. Using vocalizations recorded in the course of ecological studies of a King Rail ( Rallus elegans ) and a Clapper Rail ( Rallus crepitans ) population, we assessed the accuracy and effectiveness of three parametric (logistic regression, discriminant function analysis, quadratic discriminant function analysis) and six nonparametric (support vector machine, CART, Random Forest, k ‐nearest neighbor, weighted k ‐nearest neighbor, and neural networks) statistical classification methods for differentiating these species by their kek mating call. We identified 480 kek notes of each species and quantitatively characterized them with five standardized acoustic parameters. Overall, nonparametric classification methods outperformed parametric classification methods for species differentiation (nonparametric tools were between 57% and 81% accurate, parametric tools were between 57% and 60% accurate). Of the nine classification methods, Random Forest was the most accurate and precise, resulting in 81.1% correct classification of kek notes to species. This suggests that the mating calls of these sister species are likely difficult for human observers to tell apart. However, it also implies that appropriate statistical tools may allow reasonable species‐level classification accuracy of recorded calls and provide an alternative to species classification where other capture‐ or genotype‐based survey techniques are not possible.

Ecology and Evolution↗