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USGS2015

Suburban watershed nitrogen retention: Estimating the effectiveness of stormwater management structures

Excess nitrogen (N) is a primary driver of freshwater and coastal eutrophication globally, and urban stormwater is a rapidly growing source of N pollution. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are used widely to remove excess N from runoff in urban and suburban areas, and are expected to perform under a wide variety of environmental conditions. Yet the capacity of BMPs to retain excess N varies; and both the variation and the drivers thereof are largely unknown, hindering the ability of water resource managers to meet water quality targets in a cost-effective way. Here, we use structured expert judgment (SEJ), a performance-weighted method of expert elicitation, to quantify the uncertainty in BMP performance under a range of site-specific environmental conditions and to estimate the extent to which key environmental factors influence variation in BMP performance. We hypothesized that rain event frequency and magnitude, BMP type and size, and physiographic province would significantly influence the experts’ estimates of N retention by BMPs common to suburban Piedmont and Coastal Plain watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Expert knowledge indicated wide uncertainty in BMP performance, with N removal efficiencies ranging from <0% (BMP acting as a source of N during a rain event) to >40%. Experts believed that the amount of rain was the primary identifiable source of variability in BMP efficiency, which is relevant given climate projections of more frequent heavy rain events in the mid-Atlantic. To assess the extent to which those projected changes might alter N export from suburban BMPs and watersheds, we combined downscaled estimates of rainfall with distributions of N loads for different-sized rain events derived from our elicitation. The model predicted higher and more variable N loads under a projected future climate regime, suggesting that current BMP regulations for reducing nutrients may be inadequate in the future.

Maryland↗

USGS2005

Bait stations, hard mast, and black bear population growth in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Bait-station surveys are used by wildlife managers as an index to American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) population abundance, but the relationship is not well established. Hard mast surveys are similarly used to assess annual black bear food availability which may affect mortality and natality rates. We used data collected in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) from 1989 to 2003 to determine whether changes in the bait-station index (ΔBSI) were associated with estimated rates of bear population growth (λ) and whether hard mast production was related to bear visitation to baits. We also evaluated whether hard mast production from previous years was related to λ. Estimates of λ were based on analysis of capture-recapture data with the Pradel temporal symmetry estimator. Using the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), our analysis revealed no direct relationship between ΔBSI and λ. A simulation analysis indicated that our data were adequate to detect a relationship had one existed. Model fit was marginally improved when we added total oak mast production of the previous year as an interaction term suggesting that the BSI was confounded with environmental variables. Consequently the utility of the bait-station survey as a population monitoring technique is questionable at the spatial and temporal scales we studied. Mast survey data, however, were valuable covariates of λ. Population growth for a given year was negatively related to oak mast production 4 and 5 years prior. That finding supported our hypothesis that mast failures can trigger reproductive synchrony, which may not be evident from the trapped sample until years later.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗

USGS2011

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Assessing potential habitat for freshwater mussels by transferring a habitat suitability model within the Ozark Ecoregion, Missouri

Habitat suitability models for freshwater mussels can inform conservation of these imperiled animals. Riverscape-scale hydrogeomorphic variables were previously used to predict suitable mussel habitat in the Meramec River basin, Missouri. We evaluated transferability of the Meramec River habitat suitability model to the Gasconade and Little Black rivers, in the Ozark Highlands ecoregion, Missouri. The best-fit models relied on transferring and adapting the original modeling framework to better represent the unique habitat characteristics of each river. Mussel bed occurrence in both rivers was associated with reaches that were classified as pools. Mussel beds in the Gasconade River were also associated with laterally stable reaches adjacent to small bluffs, distant from gravel bars, and with higher stream power indices. Mussel beds in the Little Black River were associated with reaches with higher surface water availability during low-flow conditions, lower stream power indices, and bluffs located downstream. Our results show that existing habitat models can be transferred to other streams with similar environmental conditions, but differences in watershed characteristics can affect transferability.

Missouri↗

USGS2009

Revised Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Southern Delivery System (SDS) project is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated wastewater into the reservoir. Wastewater plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (year 2006 demand conditions) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir, whereas results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios, and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Additionally, the differences between simulation results generally were

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

The ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA): A new framework for developing regional environmental flow standards

The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river-by-river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows scientists, water-resource managers and stakeholders to analyse and synthesise available scientific information into ecologically based and socially acceptable goals and standards for management of environmental flows. 3. The ELOHA framework includes the synthesis of existing hydrologic and ecological databases from many rivers within a user-defined region to develop scientifically defensible and empirically testable relationships between flow alteration and ecological responses. These relationships serve as the basis for the societally driven process of developing regional flow standards. This is to be achieved by first using hydrologic modelling to build a 'hydrologic foundation' of baseline and current hydrographs for stream and river segments throughout the region. Second, using a set of ecologically relevant flow variables, river segments within the region are classified into a few distinctive flow regime types that are expected to have different ecological characteristics. These river types can be further subclassified according to important geomorphic features that define hydraulic habitat features. Third, the deviation of current-condition flows from baseline-condition flow is determined. Fourth, flow alteration-ecological response relationships are developed for each river type, based on a combination of existing hydroecological literature, expert knowledge and field studies across gradients of hydrologic alteration. 4. Scientific uncertainty will exist in the flow alteration-ecological response relationships, in part because of the confounding of hydrologic alteration with other important environmental determinants of river ecosystem condition (e.g. temperature). Application of the ELOHA framework should therefore occur in a consensus context where stakeholders and decision-makers explicitly evaluate acceptable risk as a balance between the perceived value of the ecological goals, the economic costs involved and the scientific uncertainties in functional relationships between ecological responses and flow alteration. 5. The ELOHA framework also should proceed in an adaptive management context, where collection of monitoring data or targeted field sampling data allows for testing of the proposed flow alteration-ecological response relationships. This empirical validation process allows for a fine-tuning of environmental flow management targets. The ELOHA framework can be used both to guide basic research in hydroecology and to further implementation of more comprehensive environmental flow management of freshwater sustainability on a global scale. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2018

Evaluating potential distribution of high-risk aquatic invasive species in the water garden and aquarium trade at a global scale based on current established populations

Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non‐native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.

Risk Analysis↗

USGS2009

Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Herpetologica↗

USGS1999

Water and sediment characteristics associated with avian botulism outbreaks in wetlands

Avian botulism kills thousands of waterbirds annually throughout North America, but management efforts to reduce its effects have been hindered because environmental conditions that promote outbreaks are poorly understood. We measured sediment and water variables in 32 pairs of wetlands with and without a current outbreak of avian botulism. Wetlands with botulism outbreaks had greater percent organic matter (POM) in the sediment (P = 0.088) and lower redox potential in the water (P = 0.096) than paired control wetlands. We also found that pH, redox potential, temperature, and salinity measured just above the sediment-water interface were associated (P ≤ 0.05) with the risk of botulism outbreaks in wetlands, but relations were complex, involving nonlinear and multivariate associations. Regression models indicated that the risk of botulism outbreaks increased when water pH was between 7.5 and 9.0, redox potential was negative, and water temperature was >20°C. Risk declined when redox potential increased (>100), water temperature decreased (10-15°C), pH was <7.5 or >9.0, or salinity was low (<2.0 ppt). Our predictive models could allow managers to assess potential effects of wetland management practices on the risk of botulism outbreaks and to develop and evaluate alternative management strategies to reduce losses from avian botulism.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2010

Development and Application of Regression Models for Estimating Nutrient Concentrations in Streams of the Conterminous United States, 1992-2001

Data collected for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment program from 1992-2001 were used to investigate the relations between nutrient concentrations and nutrient sources, hydrology, and basin characteristics. Regression models were developed to estimate annual flow-weighted concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus using explanatory variables derived from currently available national ancillary data. Different total-nitrogen regression models were used for agricultural (25 percent or more of basin area classified as agricultural land use) and nonagricultural basins. Atmospheric, fertilizer, and manure inputs of nitrogen, percent sand in soil, subsurface drainage, overland flow, mean annual precipitation, and percent undeveloped area were significant variables in the agricultural basin total nitrogen model. Significant explanatory variables in the nonagricultural total nitrogen model were total nonpoint-source nitrogen input (sum of nitrogen from manure, fertilizer, and atmospheric deposition), population density, mean annual runoff, and percent base flow. The concentrations of nutrients derived from regression (CONDOR) models were applied to drainage basins associated with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) River Reach File (RF1) to predict flow-weighted mean annual total nitrogen concentrations for the conterminous United States. The majority of stream miles in the Nation have predicted concentrations less than 5 milligrams per liter. Concentrations greater than 5 milligrams per liter were predicted for a broad area extending from Ohio to eastern Nebraska, areas spatially associated with greater application of fertilizer and manure. Probabilities that mean annual total-nitrogen concentrations exceed the USEPA regional nutrient criteria were determined by incorporating model prediction uncertainty. In all nutrient regions where criteria have been established, there is at least a 50 percent probability of exceeding the criteria in more than half of the stream miles. Dividing calibration sites into agricultural and nonagricultural groups did not improve the explanatory capability for total phosphorus models. The group of explanatory variables that yielded the lowest model error for mean annual total phosphorus concentrations includes phosphorus input from manure, population density, amounts of range land and forest land, percent sand in soil, and percent base flow. However, the large unexplained variability and associated model error precluded the use of the total phosphorus model for nationwide extrapolations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Occupancy modeling species–environment relationships with non‐ignorable survey designs

Statistical models supporting inferences about species occurrence patterns in relation to environmental gradients are fundamental to ecology and conservation biology. A common implicit assumption is that the sampling design is ignorable and does not need to be formally accounted for in analyses. The analyst assumes data are representative of the desired population and statistical modeling proceeds. However, if data sets from probability and non‐probability surveys are combined or unequal selection probabilities are used, the design may be non‐ignorable. We outline the use of pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimation for site‐occupancy models to account for such non‐ignorable survey designs. This estimation method accounts for the survey design by properly weighting the pseudo‐likelihood equation. In our empirical example, legacy and newer randomly selected locations were surveyed for bats to bridge a historic statewide effort with an ongoing nationwide program. We provide a worked example using bat acoustic detection/non‐detection data and show how analysts can diagnose whether their design is ignorable. Using simulations we assessed whether our approach is viable for modeling data sets composed of sites contributed outside of a probability design. Pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimates differed from the usual maximum likelihood occupancy estimates for some bat species. Using simulations we show the maximum likelihood estimator of species–environment relationships with non‐ignorable sampling designs was biased, whereas the pseudo‐likelihood estimator was design unbiased. However, in our simulation study the designs composed of a large proportion of legacy or non‐probability sites resulted in estimation issues for standard errors. These issues were likely a result of highly variable weights confounded by small sample sizes (5% or 10% sampling intensity and four revisits). Aggregating data sets from multiple sources logically supports larger sample sizes and potentially increases spatial extents for statistical inferences. Our results suggest that ignoring the mechanism for how locations were selected for data collection (e.g., the sampling design) could result in erroneous model‐based conclusions. Therefore, in order to ensure robust and defensible recommendations for evidence‐based conservation decision‐making, the survey design information in addition to the data themselves must be available for analysts. Details for constructing the weights used in estimation and code for implementation are provided.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2011

Interrelationships between fish tissue mercury concentrations and water quality for South Dakota natural lakes and impoundments

The purpose of this study was to determine whether water quality parameters commonly associated with primary productivity may be used to predict the susceptibility of a specific water body to exceed proposed fish consumption advisory limitation of 0.3 mg kg −1 . South Dakota currently has nine lakes and impoundments that exceed fish tissue mercury advisory limits of 1.0 mg kg −1 total mercury, far exceeding US Environmental Protection Agency and Food and Drug Administration 0.3 mg kg −1 consumption criteria. Previous studies suggest that increased aquatic productivity may mitigate the effects of biological production and subsequent uptake of methyl mercury through bio-dilution; however, it is uncertain whether these trends may exist within highly alkaline and highly productive aquatic conditions common to South Dakota lakes and impoundments. Water quality parameters and fish tissue mercury data for northern pike and walleye were collected and assessed using existing South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources and Game Fish and Parks data. The data was initially screened using both parametric linear regression and non-parametric Mann–Whitney rank sum comparisons and further assessed using binary logistic regression and stepwise logistic regression methodology. Three separate phosphorus measurements (total, total dissolved, and Trophic State Index) and pH were determined to significantly correlate with increased mercury concentrations for the northern pike-in-impoundments model. However, phosphorus surprisingly was not a strong predictor for the remaining scenarios modeled. For the northern pike-in-natural lakes models, alkalinity was the most significant water quality parameter predicting increased mercury concentrations. Mercury concentrations for the walleye-in-natural lakes models were further influenced by pH and alkalinity. The water quality and fish tissue mercury interrelationships determined within this study suggest aquatic productivity, and consequential eutrophication processes appear to be reasonable indicators of fish tissue mercury susceptibility for aquatic conditions common to South Dakota and highlight the continuing need to minimize eutrophication through effective watershed management strategies.

South Dakota↗

USGS1997

Sequestration of hydrophobic organic contaminants by geosorbents

The chemical interactions of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) with soils and sediments (geosorbents) may result in strong binding and slow subsequent release rates that significantly affect remediation rates and endpoints. The underlying physical and chemical phenomena potentially responsible for this apparent sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents are not well understood. This challenges our concepts for assessing exposure and toxicity and for setting environmental quality criteria. Currently there are no direct observational data revealing the molecular-scale locations in which nonpolar organic compounds accumulate when associated with natural soils or sediments. Hence macroscopic observations are used to make inferences about sorption mechanisms and the chemical factors affecting the sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents. Recent observations suggest that HOC interactions with geosorbents comprise different inorganic and organic surfaces and matrices, and distinctions may be drawn along these lines, particularly with regard to the roles of inorganic micropores, natural sorbent organic matter components, combustion residue particulate carbon, and spilled organic liquids. Certain manipulations of sorbates or sorbent media may help reveal sorption mechanisms, but mixed sorption phenomena complicate the interpretation of macroscopic data regarding diffusion of HOCs into and out of different matrices and the hysteretic sorption and aging effects commonly observed for geosorbents. Analytical characterizations at the microscale, and mechanistic models derived therefrom, are needed to advance scientific knowledge of HOC sequestration, release, and environmental risk.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2019

Measurement of cyanobacteria bloom magnitude using satellite remote sensing

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) are a serious environmental, water quality and public health issue worldwide because of their ability to form dense biomass and produce toxins. Models and algorithms have been developed to detect and quantify cyanoHABs biomass using remotely sensed data but not for quantifying bloom magnitude, information that would guide water quality management decisions. We propose a method to quantify seasonal and annual cyanoHAB magnitude in lakes and reservoirs. The magnitude is the spatio-temporal mean of weekly or biweekly maximum cyanobacteria biomass for the season or year. CyanoHAB biomass is quantified using a standard reflectance spectral shape-based algorithm that uses data from Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). We demonstrate the method to quantify annual and seasonal cyanoHAB magnitude in Florida and Ohio respectively during 2003-2011 and rank the lakes based on median magnitude over the study period. The new method can be applied to Ocean Land Color Imager (OLCI) on Sentinel-3 data for assessment of cyanoHABs and the change over time, even with issues such as variable data acquisition frequency or sensor calibration uncertainties between satellites. CyanoHAB magnitude can support monitoring and management decision-making for recreational and drinking water sources.

Florida, Ohio↗

USGS2003

Living with a large reduction in permited loading by using a hydrograph-controlled release scheme

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand for the Pee Dee, Waccamaw, and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway system near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, mandated a 60-percent reduction in point-source loading. For waters with a naturally low background dissolved-oxygen concentrations, South Carolina anti-degradation rules in the water-quality regulations allows a permitted discharger a reduction of dissolved oxygen of 0.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L). This is known as the "0.1 rule." Permitted dischargers within this region of the State operate under the "0.1 rule" and cannot cause a cumulative impact greater than 0.1 mg/L on dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For municipal water-reclamation facilities to serve the rapidly growing resort and retirement community near Myrtle Beach, a variable loading scheme was developed to allow dischargers to utilize increased assimilative capacity during higher streamflow conditions while still meeting the requirements of a recently established TMDL. As part of the TMDL development, an extensive real-time data-collection network was established in the lower Waccamaw and Pee Dee River watershed where continuous measurements of streamflow, water level, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance are collected. In addition, the dynamic BRANCH/BLTM models were calibrated and validated to simulate the water quality and tidal dynamics of the system. The assimilative capacities for various streamflows were also analyzed. The variable-loading scheme established total loadings for three streamflow levels. Model simulations show the results from the additional loading to be less than a 0.1 mg/L reduction in dissolved oxygen. As part of the loading scheme, the real-time network was redesigned to monitor streamflow entering the study area and water-quality conditions in the location of dissolved-oxygen "sags." The study reveals how one group of permit holders used a variable-loading scheme to implement restrictive permit limits without experiencing prohibitive capital expenditures or initiating a lengthy appeals process.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2025

Modeling wetland resources for spring migratory waterbirds under different agricultural management scenarios in the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Constructed water quality wetlands, designed to accept tile drainage and surface runoff, are a promising solution for reducing surface water nutrient loading from agricultural systems. In addition to their water quality benefits, these systems may also offset losses of migratory waterbird stopover sites resulting from historical and future agricultural drainage modernization. To assess this possibility, we developed spatially explicit habitat models informed with expert opinion to explore the: 1) potential of water quality wetlands to provide suitable stopover resources for waterbirds during spring migration; and 2) the extent these wetlands can offset likely losses of stopover resources due to drainage modernization. We focused our modeling on the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America as it was a historically important area within this vital region for waterbirds, but it has experienced widespread subsurface drainage. Model results indicate that unmitigated drainage modernization is likely to have a large negative effect on spring migratory resources for dabbling ducks and shorebirds and minimal effect on diving ducks. Water quality wetland installations are likely to provide habitat for dabbling and diving ducks, but wetland installation is unlikely to completely offset habitat losses for dabbling ducks and shorebirds. Drainage modernization aside, our results indicate that water quality wetlands can address several environmental issues associated with agricultural expansion and intensification by improving water quality and providing wetland resources for waterbirds and other organisms. Field-scale research is needed to validate these results.

Iowa↗

USGS2025

Modeling diverse environmental responses of reservoirs to floating photovoltaic systems

Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems are emerging as a promising strategy for large-scale clean energy production worldwide. However, by altering key physical drivers such as solar radiation and wind mixing, FPV installations may have also unintended consequences for lakes and reservoirs. Given the wide diversity of freshwater systems globally, understanding the consistency in direction and magnitude of environmental responses to FPV deployment is critical for informed regulatory oversight and sustainable energy development. Here, we used process-based models to simulate the effects of FPV coverage on 11 reservoirs across the United States. This is the first multi-reservoir analysis using a laterally averaged 2D process-based modeling framework to systematically evaluate FPV impacts across diverse climatic and morphometric contexts, enabling direct comparison of magnitude and direction of responses among systems. Specifically, we evaluated changes in (1) surface and outflow temperature, (2) thermocline depth, (3) water column stability, (4) dissolved oxygen concentrations, and (5) potential suitable habitat availability for warm- and cold-water fishes. We quantified changes in these response variables by an iterative approach that simulates increases in FPV coverage and compares them with reference conditions. We summarized responses for winter (January–February) and summer (July–August). As expected, our simulations show that increasing FPV coverage consistently cooled surface waters and altered thermal stratification patterns, but the magnitude and environmental implications of these changes varied among reservoirs. Notably, greater FPV coverage led to increased variability in habitat suitability for aquatic species, with some reservoirs exhibiting distinct and sometimes divergent responses. These findings underscore the importance of considering local environmental contexts when assessing FPV impacts. While large-scale FPV systems offer potential benefits for climate mitigation, their ecological effects, particularly on thermally sensitive biota, require careful site-specific evaluation to avoid unintended consequences to local freshwater biodiversity.

Arkansas, Idaho, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Washingt↗

USGS2013

Interacting coastal based ecosystem services: recreation and water quality in Puget Sound, WA

Coastal recreation and water quality are major contributors to human well-being in coastal regions. They can also interact, creating opportunities for ecosystem based management, ecological restoration, and water quality improvement that can positively affect people and the environment. Yet the effect of environmental quality on human behavior is often poorly quantified, but commonly assumed in coastal ecosystem service studies. To clarify this effect we investigate a water quality dataset for evidence that environmental condition partially explains variation in recreational visitation, our indicator of human behavior. In Puget Sound, WA, we investigate variation in visitation in both visitation rate and fixed effects (FE) models. The visitation rate model relates the differences in annual recreational visitation among parks to environmental conditions, park characteristics, travel cost, and recreational demand. In our FE model we control for all time-invariant unobserved variables and compare monthly variation at the park level to determine how water quality affects visitation during the summer season. The results of our first model illustrate how visitation relates to various amenities and costs. In the FE analysis, monthly visitation was negatively related to water quality while controlling for monthly visitation trends. This indicates people are responding to changes in water quality, and an improvement would yield an increase in the value of recreation. Together, these results could help in prioritizing water quality improvements, could assist the creation of new parks or the modification of existing recreational infrastructure, and provide quantitative estimates for the expected benefits from potential changes in recreational visitation and water quality improvements. Our results also provide an example of how recreational visitation can be quantified and used in ecosystem service assessments.

Washington↗