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USGS2020

Assessment of dissolved-selenium concentrations and loads in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, as part of the Selenium Management Program, 2011–17

The Gunnison Basin Selenium Management Program implemented a water-quality monitoring network in 2011 to measure concentrations of selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado. Selenium is a trace element that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains. Selenium is essential for life, but elevated amounts can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other harmful effects. The primary goal of the Selenium Management Program is to meet the State of Colorado water-quality standard of 4.6 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for dissolved selenium at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station number 09152500—Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado—herein referred to as “Whitewater.” The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, has completed a review of dissolved-selenium data collected from the Selenium Management Program network during Water Year (WY) 2017 (October 1, 2016 through September 30, 2017) to further the understanding of the status and trends of selenium in the basin. This report presents the percentile values for selenium because regulatory agencies in Colorado make decisions based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Water Act section 303(d), which uses percentile values for concentrations. Also presented are dissolved-selenium loads at 14 sites in the lower Gunnison River Basin for WYs 2011–17. Annual dissolved-selenium loads were calculated for six sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. These six sites are referred to as “core” sites in this report. The remaining sites, which do not have streamflow-gaging stations, are referred to as “ancillary” sites in this report. During WY 2017, the loads calculated at the six core sites ranged from 306 pounds (lb) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 12,600 lb at Whitewater, respectively. By using discrete water-quality samples and the associated discharge measurements, instantaneous loads were calculated for 14 sites in WYs 2011–17 where discrete water-quality sampling took place. Median instantaneous loads ranged from 0.52 pounds per day (lb/d) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 35.7 lb/d at Whitewater. Mean instantaneous loads ranged from 0.63 lb/d at Cummings Gulch at mouth to 35.5 lb/d at Whitewater. Most tributary sites in the basin had a median instantaneous dissolved-selenium load of less than 20.0 lb/d. In general, dissolved-selenium loads at Gunnison River main-stem sites showed an increase from upstream to downstream. The State of Colorado’s water-quality standard for dissolved selenium of 4.6 µg/L was compared to the 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium at selected sites. Annual 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium were calculated by using estimated dissolved-selenium concentrations from linear regression models for the six core sites with U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. The 85th-percentile concentrations for WY 2017 based on this method ranged from 0.68 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 140 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. The 85th percentiles for concentrations of dissolved selenium also were calculated from water-quality samples collected during WY 2017 from sites with sufficient data. The annual 85th-percentile concentrations based on the discrete samples ranged from 0.75 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 106 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. An analysis was completed for Whitewater to determine if an upward or downward trend exists for dissolved-selenium loads during two time periods. The first time period included all data at Whitewater, whereas the second time period focused on more recent data. The trend analysis indicates a decrease from 22,200 to 12,600 lb, which is a 43.1 percent (9,600 lb) reduction during the time period WY 1986 through WY 2017. The trend analysis for the annual dissolved-selenium load for WY 1995 through WY 2017 indicates a decrease of 6,600 lb per year, or 35.5 percent. An evaluation of laboratory bias was completed for selenium data which was used in the trend analysis. Findings indicated a potential positive bias of approximately 12 percent may exist in the data from October 2005 through August 2015.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Assessment of dissolved-selenium concentrations and loads in the lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, as part of the Selenium Management Program, from 2011 to 2016

The Gunnison Basin Selenium Management Program implemented a water-quality monitoring network in 2011 in the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado. Selenium is a trace element that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains and can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other harmful effects. This report presents the percentile values of selenium because regulatory agencies in Colorado make decisions based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Water Act Section 303(d) that uses percentile values of concentration. Also presented are dissolved-selenium loads at 18 sites in the lower Gunnison River Basin for water years (WYs) 2011–2016 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2016). Annual dissolved-selenium loads were calculated for five sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. Annual dissolved-selenium loads for WY 2011 through WY 2016 ranged from 179 and 391 pounds (lb) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 11,100 and 17,300 lb at Gunnison River near Grand Junction (herein called Whitewater), respectively. Instantaneous loads were calculated for five sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and 13 ancillary sites where discrete water-quality sampling also took place, using discrete water-quality samples and the associated discharge measurements collected during the period. Median instantaneous loads ranged from 0.01 pound per day (lb/d) at Smith Fork near Lazear to 33.0 lb/d at Whitewater. Mean instantaneous loads ranged from 0.06 lb/d at Smith Fork near Lazear to 36.2 lb/d at Whitewater. Most tributary sites in the basin had a median instantaneous dissolved-selenium load of less than 20.0 lb/day. In general, dissolved-selenium loads at Gunnison River main-stem sites showed an increase from upstream to downstream. The State of Colorado water-quality standard for dissolved selenium of 4.6 micrograms per liter (µg/L) was compared to the 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium at selected sites. Annual 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium were calculated for the five core sites having USGS streamflow-gaging stations using estimated dissolved-selenium concentrations from linear regression models. The 85th-percentile concentrations for WYs 2011–2016 based on this method ranged from 0.62 µg/L and 1.1µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 12.1 µg/L and 18.7 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Delta. The 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium also were calculated for sites with sufficient data using water-quality samples collected during WYs 2011–2016. The annual 85th-percentile concentrations based on the discrete samples ranged from 0.16 µg/L and 0.17 µg/L at Gunnison River below Gunnison Tunnel to 62.2 µg/L and 170 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. A trend analysis was completed for Whitewater to determine if dissolved-selenium loads are increasing or decreasing. The trend analysis indicates a decrease of 9,100 lb from WY 1986 to WY 2016, a 40.8 percent reduction during the time period. The trend analysis for the annual dissolved-selenium load for WY 1994 to WY 2016 indicates a decrease of 6,300 lb per year, or 33.3 percent.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2005

Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

Water from many of California's coastal rivers has been used for a wide variety of development ventures, including major agricultural diversions, hydropower generation, and contaminant assimilation from industry, agriculture and logging. Anthropogenic impacts often degrade water quality and decrease the quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. Reallocating streamflow away from uses that degrade water quality to uses that foster higher water quality is a critical step in restoring riverine habitat and the anadromous fish that rely on that habitat for a portion of their life cycle. Reallocation always brings with it the need to examine the economic efficiency of the proposed changes. If the dollar benefits of improving water quality are greater than the costs, the criterion of improving economic efficiency is satisfied, a fact that can be highly persuasive to decision makers contemplating reallocation. Previous related studies have examined nonmarket benefits of the Trinity River in northern California (Douglas and Taylor, 1998; Douglas and Taylor, 1999abc) but nothing of this kind had been done on the Klamath River, another system with numerous uses for and competition over water in times of drought. An economic survey is nearing completion for the mid- to lower Klamath River, including the Scott, Shasta, and Salmon Rivers, but excluding the Trinity River. This survey provides valuable insights about the magnitude of the benefits and nature of the costs of reallocating water from market uses to instream flows that improve water quality and assist in the recovery of Klamath River fish stocks. Preliminary survey results (Douglas and Johnson, 2002; Douglas and Sleeper, In Prep.) indicate that about 234,000 California, Oregon, and Nevada households made recreation trips to the Klamath River Basin 1997-1998 and that these users spent about $372 million on trip related expenditures. Clearly the prosperity of the region is closely linked to the demand for mid- and lower Klamath River Basin recreation trips. Further, respondents indicated that they would make roughly 36% more recreational trips per annum to the Klamath if the water quality and the fishery were restored to an unspoiled condition. Using two distinct types of survey data, these additional trips would yield benefits with a present value of approximately $9.6 billion (at a discount rate of 7.5%). Calculating costs to restore the fishery and raise water quality involved five major hypothetical restoration activities: (1) purchasing Klamath project farmland and environmentally sensitive forest lands, (2) allocating more water down the Trinity River to enhance the quantity and quality of Klamath flows below the confluence, (3) removing four mainstem dams along the Klamath River and losing their associated hydropower production, (4) eliminating all harvest of Klamath-Trinity fish stocks for a 12-year period including the acquisition of fishing rights from both tribal and commercial marine fishermen, and (5) operating all Klamath-Trinity fish hatcheries to restore self-reproducing stocks. In total, restoration costs were estimated to be about $1.7 to $2.3 billion. If the assumptions used in this study are valid, it is clear that the benefits ($9.6B) outweigh the costs of restoring water quality and the fishery. The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Federal lands greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–22

In 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produce a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use of fossil fuels from Federal lands. The first report in this series included emissions estimates from 2005 to 2014 and were reported for 29 States and two offshore areas. Native American and Tribal lands were not included in that analysis. This report recalculates those previous years (2005–14) with updated data and methods and extends the estimates to 2022. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2022 were 1,081.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 Eq.) for CO 2 , 33.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. for methane (CH 4 ), and 4.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. for nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Compared to 2005, the 2022 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (by 17 percent for CO 2 , 37 percent for CH 4 , and 30 percent for N 2 O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 21.8 percent of U.S. emissions for CO 2 , 6.1 percent for CH 4 , and 1.3 percent for N 2 O over the 18 years included in this estimate. The trends and relative magnitudes of the greenhouse gas emissions estimated are roughly parallel to the Federal lands fossil fuel production volumes. In 2021, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 70,424 MMT CO 2 Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. Soils stored most of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon (66 percent), followed by live vegetation (25 percent), deadwood (5 percent), and litter (4 percent). Carbon sequestration on Federal lands was highly variable over time, owing primarily to interannual variability in climate and weather, and variability in land use and land cover (LULC) change and disturbances, among these are wildfires and logging. Between 2005 and 2021, Federal lands sequestered an average of 83 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr. By subtracting the cumulative effects of LULC and disturbance-related CO 2 losses to the atmosphere from the total, we estimate that ecosystems at the national level sequestered CO 2 at an annual mean rate of 17 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr in a term called the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). This annual NEE sequestration value represents about 1.4 percent of average fossil fuel emissions over the same period. The USGS estimates presented in this report represent an accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. A combined net CO 2 emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO 2 from both the fossil fuel and ecosystems estimates, provides context for evaluating the greenhouse gas contributions of activities on these lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Identifying transportation data and system needs for a Federal lands transportation data platform

Executive Summary Modern transportation and land-use planning efforts include information from many sources to address topics such as safety, efficiency, commercial, and social needs. This wide breadth of topics provides opportunities for collaboration and development of common tools for diverse users. In many cases, different information systems provide the spatial data and geographic content necessary for transportation and land-use planners to consider multiple lines of evidence. The Federal Highway Administration Office of Federal Lands Highway (FLH) and Federal Land Management Agency partners use detailed spatial and quantitative data to inform transportation decisions. However, logistic challenges to data sharing exist because data are often managed by separate agencies; data-exchange frameworks and interagency data agreements are insufficient; and consistency from aggregated data requires maintenance, coordination, and supporting infrastructure. The FLH and U.S. Geological Survey collaboratively examined (1) use and availability of spatial data for transportation planning and (2) a possible mechanism to use more shared and consistent data in a common planning environment. The goals of this collaborative effort were to describe data needs from the perspective of planners and to identify opportunities for shared data resources. Results presented here focus on two workshops and a subsequent investigation of data and tools available from partner agencies. The objectives of this report are to (1) describe information used in transportation planning with geographic data; (2) identify spatially explicit data that inform transportation plans and could be shared among all partners; and (3) describe current platforms, planning and administrative opportunities, and potential barriers to developing an integrated planning tool. Key information and data needs were identified in three major classes: system, user, and influential factors. System data are parts of the transportation network and information about the condition of individual segments and the network. User data provide details about the function of the system and insights into potential needs; for example, user trips between source and destinations inform road and network demands that can lead to congestion and safety issues (in the future, user data might also include scenarios and projections based on land-use plans). Influential data represent social and environmental factors that influence transit demands and network conditions. These factors could be popular locations or seasonal events that influence demand and congestion; wildlife habitat or migration intersections that affect safety and management priorities; or geologic features that influence hazards, maintenance, and safety. Responses described here provide specific information for web-tool design and give a framework for interagency communication and cooperation to address specific information needs for integrated planning. Existing web-mapping and web-services, and the data that inform them, are also described. Commonly, these data are created and published by one agency, and the core users are outside of that agency; for example, threatened species distributions are published by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for consideration by planners in advance of National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.) evaluation. This report is provided to inform FLH leaders and Federal Land Management Agency partners by articulating user needs and requirements for integrated planning tool(s). Programmers creating a secure web-based data-sharing platform (with data-viewing, -analysis and -download functions) can use the information presented here to organize data and user interfaces. This integrated perspective can help FLH and Federal Land Management Agency partners develop transportation networks that better serve the needs of people in local communities and across States and the Nation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Federal lands greenhouse emissions and sequestration in the United States—Estimates for 2005–14

In January 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior tasked the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with producing a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use (predominantly some form of combustion) of fossil fuels from Federal lands. In response, the USGS has produced estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the extraction and end-use combustion of fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in the United States, as well as estimates of ecosystem carbon emissions and sequestration on those lands. American Indian and Tribal lands were not included in this analysis. The emissions estimates span a 10-year period (2005–14) and are reported for 28 States and two offshore areas. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2014 were 1,279.0 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 Eq.) for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), 47.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. for methane (CH 4 ), and 5.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. for nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Compared to 2005, the 2014 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (decreases of 6.1 percent for CO 2 , 10.5 percent for CH 4 , and 20.3 percent for N 2 O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 23.7 percent of national emissions for CO 2 , 7.3 percent for CH 4 , and 1.5 percent for N 2 O over the 10 years included in this estimate. In 2005, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 82,289 MMT CO 2 Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. By 2014, carbon storage, or sequestration, was estimated at 83,600 MMT CO 2 Eq., representing an increase of 1.6 percent, or 1,311 MMT CO 2 Eq. Soils stored most of the ecosystem carbon (63 percent), followed by live vegetation (26 percent) and dead organic matter (11 percent). The rate of net carbon uptake in ecosystems ranged from a sink (sequestration) of 475 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year (MMT CO 2 Eq./yr) to a source (emission) of 51 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr because of annual variability in climate and weather, rates of land-use and land-cover change, and wildfire frequency, among other factors. At the national level, the USGS estimates that terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, and shrublands) on Federal lands sequestered an average of 195 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr between 2005 and 2014, offsetting approximately 15 percent of the CO 2 emissions resulting from the extraction of fossil fuels on Federal lands and their end-use combustion. The USGS estimates presented in this report represent a first-of-its-kind accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. The net CO 2 emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO 2 , provides an informative combined result describing the emissions (fossil fuel extraction and end-use combustion) associated with a State’s Federal lands and sequestration on those same lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2026

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi 2 ), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi 2 ) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi 2 ) in the United States. We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations. Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections. The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable. The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community. This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Nevada, Sina↗

USGS1998

A simulation-optimization model for water-resources management, Santa Barbara, California

In times of drought, the local water supplies of the city of Santa Barbara, California, are insufficient to satisfy water demand. In response, the city has built a seawater desalination plant and gained access to imported water in 1997. Of primary concern to the city is delivering water from the various sources at a minimum cost while satisfying water demand and controlling seawater intrusion that might result from the overpumping of ground water. A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of Santa Barbara?s water resources. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply while satisfying various physical and institutional constraints such as meeting water demand, maintaining minimum hydraulic heads at selected sites, and not exceeding water-delivery or pumping capacities. The model is formulated as a linear programming problem with monthly management periods and a total planning horizon of 5 years. The decision variables are water deliveries from surface water (Gibraltar Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir cumulative annual carryover, Mission Tunnel, State Water Project, and desalinated seawater) and ground water (13 production wells). The state variables are hydraulic heads. Basic assumptions for all simulations are that (1) the cost of water varies with source but is fixed over time, and (2) only existing or planned city wells are considered; that is, the construction of new wells is not allowed. The drought of 1947?51 is Santa Barbara?s worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. Assumptions that were made for this base case include a head constraint equal to sea level at the coastal nodes; Cachuma Reservoir carryover of 3,000 acre-feet per year, with a maximum carryover of 8,277 acre-feet; a maximum annual demand of 15,000 acre-feet; and average monthly capacities for the Cachuma and the Gibraltar Reservoirs. The base-case results indicate that water demands can be met, with little water required from the most expensive water source (desalinated seawater), at a total cost of $5.56 million over the 5-year planning horizon. The simulation model has drains, which operate as nonlinear functions of heads and could affect the model solutions. However, numerical tests show that the drains have little effect on the optimal solution. Sensitivity analyses on the base case yield the following results: If allowable Cachuma Reservoir carryover is decreased by about 50 percent, then costs increase by about 14 percent; if the peak demand is decreased by 7 percent, then costs will decrease by about 14 percent; if the head constraints are loosened to -30 feet, then the costs decrease by about 18 percent; if the heads are constrained such that a zero hydraulic gradient condition occurs at the ocean boundary, then the optimization problem does not have a solution; if the capacity of the desalination plant is constrained to zero acre-feet, then the cost increases by about 2 percent; and if the carryover of State Water Project water is implemented, then the cost decreases by about 0.5 percent. Four additional monthly diversion distribution scenarios for the reservoirs were tested: average monthly Cachuma Reservoir deliveries with the actual (scenario 1) and proposed (scenario 2) monthly distributions of Gibraltar Reservoir water, and variable monthly Cachuma Reservoir deliveries with the actual (scenario 3) and proposed (scenario 4) monthly distributions of Gibraltar Reservoir water. Scenario 1 resulted in a total cost of about $7.55 million, scenario 2 resulted in a total cost of about $5.07 million, and scenarios 3 and 4 resulted in a total cost of about $4.53 million. Sensitivities of the scenarios 1 and 2 to desalination-plant capacity and State Water Project water carryover were tested. The scenario 1 sensitivity analysis indicated that incorpo

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Tillamook Bay tributaries and Nehalem River basin, northwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Tillamook (drainage area 156 square kilometers [km 2 ]), Trask (451 km 2 ), Wilson (500 km 2 ), Kilchis (169 km 2 ), Miami (94 km 2 ), and Nehalem (2,207 km 2 ) Rivers along the northwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted in coopera-tion with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Oregon Department of State Lands to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: Study areas along the six rivers can be divided into reaches based on tidal influence and topography. The fluvial (nontidal or dominated by riverine processes) reaches vary in length (2.4-9.3 kilometer [km]), gradient (0.0011-0.0075 meter of elevation change per meter of channel length [m/m]), and bed-material composition (a mixture of alluvium and intermittent bedrock outcrops to predominately alluvium). In fluvial reaches, unit bar area (square meter of bar area per meter of channel length [m 2 /m]) as mapped from 2009 photographs ranged from 7.1 m 2 /m on the Tillamook River to 27.9 m 2 /m on the Miami River. In tidal reaches, all six rivers flow over alluvial deposits, but have varying gradients (0.0001-0.0013 m/m) and lengths affected by tide (1.3-24.6 km). The Miami River has the steepest and shortest tidal reach and the Nehalem River has the flattest and longest tidal reach. Bars in the tidal reaches are generally composed of sand and mud. Unit bar area was greatest in the Tidal Nehalem Reach, where extensive mud flats flank the lower channel. Background factors such as valley and channel confinement, basin geology, channel slope, and tidal extent control the spatial variation in the accumulation and texture of bed material. Presently, the Upper Fluvial Wilson and Miami Reaches and Fluvial Nehalem Reach have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to local bed-material sources in combination with decreasing channel gradient and valley confinement. Natural and human-caused disturbances such as mass movements, logging, fire, channel modifications for navigation and flood control, and gravel mining also have varying effects on channel condition, bed-material transport, and distribution and area of bars throughout the study areas and over time. Existing datasets include at least 16 and 18 sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study areas in the Tillamook Bay tributary basins and Nehalem River basin, respectively, from 1939 to 2011. These photographs are available for future assessments of long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. High resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) surveys acquired in 2007-2009 could support future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport in all study areas. A review of deposited and mined gravel volumes reported for instream gravel mining sites shows that bed-material deposition tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Mean annual deposition volumes on individual bars exceeded 3,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) on Donaldson Bar on the Wilson River, Dill Bar on the Kilchis River, and Plant and Winslow Bars on the Nehalem River. Cumulative reported volumes of bed-material deposition were greatest at Donaldson and Dill Bars, totaling over 25,000 m 3 per site from 2004 to 2011. Within this period, reported cumulative mined volumes were greatest for the Donaldson, Plant, and Winslow Bars, ranging from 24,470 to 33,940 m 3 . Analysis of historical stage-streamflow data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Wilson River near Tillamook (14301500) and Nehalem River near Foss (14301000) shows that these rivers have episodically aggraded and incised, mostly following high flow events, but they do not exhibit systematic, long-term trends in bed elevation. Multiple cross sections show that channels near bridge crossings in all six study areas are dynamic with many subject to incision and aggradation as well as lateral shifts in thalweg position and bank deposition and erosion. In fluvial reaches, unit bar area declined a net 5.3-83.6 percent from 1939 to 2009. The documented reduction in bar area may be attributable to several factors, including vegetation establishment and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces, lateral channel changes and resulting alterations in sediment deposition and erosion patterns, and streamflow and/or tide differences between photographs. Other factors that may be associated with the observed reduction in bar area but not assessed in this reconnaissance level study include changes in the sediment and hydrology regimes of these rivers over the analysis period. In tidal reaches, unit bar area increased on the Tillamook and Nehalem Rivers (98.0 and 14.7 percent, respectively), but declined a net 24.2 to 83.1 percent in the other four tidal reaches. Net increases in bar area in the Tidal Tillamook and Nehalem Reaches were possibly attributable to tidal differences between the photographs as well as sediment deposition behind log booms and pile structures on the Tillamook River between 1939 and 1967. The armoring ratio (ratio of the median grain sizes of a bar's surface and subsurface layers) was 1.6 at Lower Waldron Bar on the Miami River, tentatively indicating a relative balance between transport capacity and sediment supply at this location. Armoring ratios, however, ranged from 2.4 to 5.5 at sites on the Trask, Wilson, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers; these coarse armor layers probably reflect limited bed-material supply at these sites. On the basis of mapping results, measured armoring ratios, and channel cross section surveys, preliminary conclusions are that the fluvial reaches on the Tillamook, Trask, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers are currently sediment supply-limited in terms of bed material - that is, the transport capacity of the channel generally exceeds the supply of bed material. The relation between transport capacity and sediment is more ambiguous for the fluvial reaches on the Wilson and Miami Rivers, but transport-limited conditions are likely for at least parts of these reaches. Some of these reaches have possibly evolved from sediment supply-limited to transport-limited over the last several decades in response to changing basin and climate conditions. Because of exceedingly low gradients, all the tidal reaches are transport-limited. Bed material in these reaches, however, is primarily sand and finer grain-size material and probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. These reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to basins on the southwestern Oregon coast, such as the Chetco and Rogue River basins, these six basins likely transport overall less gravel bed material. Although tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements, this conclusion is supported by the much lower area and frequency of bars and longer tidal reaches along all the northcoast rivers examined in this study. Previous studies suggest that the expansive and largely unvegetated bars visible in the 1939 photographs are primarily associated with voluminous sedimentation starting soon after the first Tillamook Burn fire in 1933. However, USGS studies of temporal bar trends in other Oregon coastal rivers unaffected by the Tillamook Burn show similar declines in bar area over approximately the same analysis period. In the Umpqua and Chetco River basins, historical declines in bar area are associated with long-term decreases in flood magnitude. Other factors may include changes in the type and volume of large wood and riparian vegetation. Further characterization of hydrology patterns in these basins and possible linkages with climate factors related to flood peaks, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, could support inferences of expected future changes in vegetation establishment and channel planform and profile. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the fluvial study areas on the Wilson, Kilchis, Miami, and Nehalem Rivers and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. Tidal reaches may also be logical subjects for indepth analysis where studies would be more relevant to the deposition and transport of fine sediment (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

2023-2024 Coastal sage scrub and chaparral community monitoring for western San Diego County

Western San Diego County is dominated by shrublands supporting biologically diverse native plant and animal communities. Widespread urbanization has led to regional habitat loss and fragmentation, and many species in these shrubland communities are rare, threatened, or endangered. Large-scale, multiple-species conservation planning has resulted in a regional preserve system that focuses on these shrubland communities. Several large-scale threats are leading to type conversion from shrub-dominated to non-native invasive annual grass-dominated vegetation. To understand the changes that are occurring to native shrublands, we have developed a vegetation monitoring program with several components at multiple spatial scales, focused on quantifying coastal sage scrub (CSS) and chaparral vegetation community characteristics. Several drivers of change associated with type conversion of native shrubland to non-native annual grassland have been identified by previous research including increasing fire frequency, nitrogen deposition from air pollution, and prolonged and intense drought associated with changing climate. Loss of ecological integrity indices have been proposed as useful measures of the threat of degradation and type conversion of shrublands in San Diego County. For this study, ecological integrity is defined as a system’s ability to maintain species’ relationships and functions comparable to natural habitat in the region. Previous studies have identified the percent cover of invasive non-native annual grasses as a proxy for overall ecological degradation (loss of integrity) that is consistent across native taxonomic groups. Increased cover of non-native grass is associated with lower integrity of the shrubland vegetation community as shrub-associated plant and animal species are replaced by species preferring grassy and disturbed habitats. The objectives of this CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring plan are to: 1) Determine the distribution, composition, structure, and integrity of CSS and chaparral vegetation communities on conserved lands in western San Diego County, 2) Identify whether these attributes of the vegetation communities are changing over time, and 3) Evaluate relationships of known drivers of change (threats) and environmental factors in association with changes in vegetation community attributes. The CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring program is divided into four components: 1) vegetation mapping, 2) GIS/remote sensing office analysis of landscape-scale data, 3) permanent field plots using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and field data collections, and 4) animal and target species surveys and rapid assessment protocols. The first component, which is not detailed in this vegetation monitoring plan, aims to map vegetation communities every 10-15 years based on a classification developed for western San Diego County. High resolution aerial imagery will be used to update the 2012 vegetation map and expand it across the entire study area. The second component uses remote sensing models to annually track ecological integrity of shrublands across the study area and will include a map of areas of change and areas of stability over several decades. These landscape-scale integrity classifications will be used to analyze ecological processes, threats, and abiotic factors relative to changes to shrubland ecological integrity over time and space. The third component includes field surveys of 100 permanent plots across areas historically mapped as shrublands. Surveys in the 1930s mapped vegetation types using plot data. By using this historical classification map, we included areas that have already type-converted from shrubland to non-native annual grassland. The plots were split between CSS (55 plots) and chaparral (45 plots) and stratified into four geographical eco-subregions to guarantee coverage over small patches of habitat along the heavily developed coast. Surveys will include the collection of UAS imagery at a very high resolution. Species-level identifications will be made from the imagery based on a plant list compiled of all species detected in the plot during a thorough field survey by botanists, combined with geo-referenced samples of plant species locations. In addition, herbaceous cover will be estimated in the field using nine 1-m diameter circles (one per subplot) to obtain ocular estimates of cover for each plant species within the circle frame. Soil samples will be collected and analyzed for important element compositions. These data will be analyzed to evaluate plot-level ecological integrity based on species composition and cover. Repeated monitoring will allow evaluation of changes in vegetation attributes over time with known drivers or threats and other environmental factors. In addition, analyses will focus on indicator species and various measures of biological diversity for the vegetation communities. Finally, animal species and rare plants will be assessed using either taxa-based rapid assessment protocols or specialized species-specific protocols for rarer species. The purpose of these assessments is to document the status, habitat, and threat covariates of specific species and confirm the species composition and diversity of animal taxonomic groups (e.g., pollinators). Diversity and abundance of animal species at vegetation plots will be used to refine measures and thresholds of ecological integrity. Rapid assessment protocols for animal taxonomic groups can include multiple detection methods such as, camera traps, cover boards, and bird point counts. Pollinators will be monitored at plots using a protocol currently being developed in conjunction with but separately from this plan. Target rare plant species will be monitored using the regional Inspect and Manage (IMG) protocol that measures the status of rare plant occurrences and habitat and threat covariates over time. Species-specific animal survey methods will be refined as these species are prioritized for future monitoring. The goal of this monitoring program is to classify CSS and chaparral vegetation community integrity, identify areas of degradation across western San Diego County, and characterize drivers, and environmental factors associated with loss of ecological integrity. A combination of vegetation mapping, landscape-scale remote sensing, and field plots will be used to address all the aspects of our research questions. Data compiled and collected will be available to conservation partners to help inform future management decisions.

California↗

USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗

USGS2012

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Rogue River basin, southwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary assessment of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Rogue River basin, which encompasses 13,390 square kilometers (km 2 ) along the southwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: The Rogue River in its lowermost 178.5 kilometers (km) alternates between confined and unconfined segments, and is predominately alluvial along its lowermost 44 km. The study area on the mainstem Rogue River can be divided into five reaches based on topography, hydrology, and tidal influence. The largely confined, active channel flows over bedrock and coarse bed material composed chiefly of boulders and cobbles in the Grants Pass (river kilometers [RKM] 178.5–152.8), Merlin (RKM 152.8–132.7), and Galice Reaches (RKM 132.7–43.9). Within these confined reaches, the channel contains few bars and has stable planforms except for locally wider segments such as the Brushy Chutes area in the Merlin Reach. Conversely, the active channel flows over predominately alluvial material and contains nearly continuous gravel bars in the Lobster Creek Reach (RKM 43.9–6.7). The channel in the Tidal Reach (RKM 6.7–0) is also alluvial, but tidally affected and unconfined until RKM 2. The Lobster Creek and Tidal Reaches contain some of the most extensive bar deposits within the Rogue River study area. For the 56.6-km-long segment of the Applegate River included in this study, the river was divided into two reaches based on topography. In the Upper Applegate River Reach (RKM 56.6–41.6), the confined, active channel flows over alluvium and bedrock and has few bars. In the Lower Applegate River Reach (RKM 41.6–0), the active channel alternates between confined and unconfined segments, flows predominantly over alluvium, shifts laterally in unconfined sections, and contains more numerous and larger bars. The 6.5-km segment of the lower Illinois River included in this study was treated as one reach. This stretch of the Illinois River is fully alluvial, with nearly continuous gravel bars flanking the channel. The width of the active channel is confined by the narrow topography of the valley. The primary human activities that have likely influenced channel condition, bed-material transport, and the extent and area of bars are (1) historical gold mining throughout the basin, (2) historical and ongoing gravel mining from instream sites in the Tidal Reach and floodplain sites such as those in the Lower Applegate River Reach, (3) hydropower and flow control structures, (4) forest management and fires throughout the basin, and (5) dredging. These anthropogenic activities likely have varying effects on channel condition and the transport and deposition of sediment throughout the study area and over time. Several vertical (aspect) aerial photographs (including the complete coverages of the study area taken in 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2009 and the partial coverages taken in 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1990) are available for assessing long-term changes in attributes such as channel condition, bar area, and vegetation cover. A Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) survey performed in 2007–2008 provides 1-m resolution topographic data for sections of the Grants Pass (RKM 178.5–167.6) and Lobster Creek (RKM 17.8–12 and 10–6.7) Reaches and the entire Tidal Reach. Previous studies provide information for specific locations, including (1) an estimated average annual bed-material load of 76,000 m 3 at the former Savage Rapids Dam site (RKM 173.1, Grants Pass Reach), (2) over 490 m of channel shifting from 1965 to 1991 in the Brushy Chutes area (RKM 142–141, Merlin Reach), (3) active sediment transport and channel processes in the Lobster Creek Reach, (4) lateral channel migration in the Tidal Reach, and (5) up to 1.8 m of bar aggradation from the town of Agness (RKM 45.1) to the Rogue River mouth following the flood in water year 1997. Review of the repeat surveys conducted at the instream gravel-mining sites on Elephant and Wedderburn Bars tentatively indicated that these bars (1) experience some bed-material deposition in most years and more substantial deposition following high flows such as those in water years 1997 and 2006, and (2) are dynamic and subject to local scour and deposition. Results from the specific gage analyses completed for five long-term USGS streamflow-gaging stations showed that only the Grants Pass station on the Rogue River (RKM 164.4, Grants Pass Reach) experienced substantial changes in the stage–discharge relationship across a range of flows from 1938 to 2009. Observed changes indicate channel incision at this site. The Rogue and Applegate Rivers are dynamic and subject to channel shifting, aggradation, and incision, as indicated by channel cross sections surveyed during 2000–2010 on the Rogue River and 1933–2010 on the Applegate River. The elevation of the riverbed changed substantially (defined here as more than a net 0.5 m of incision or aggradation) at three locations on the Rogue River (near RKM 164.5, 139.2, and 1.3) and two on the Applegate River (near RKM 42 and 13.5). Systematic delineation of bar features from vertical photographs taken in 1967–69, 2005, and 2009 indicated that most of the repeat mapping sites had a net loss in bar area over the analysis period, ranging from 22 percent at the Oak Flat site (Illinois River Reach) to 69 percent at the Thompson Creek site (Upper Applegate River Reach). Bar area remained stable at the Williams Creek site (Lower Applegate River Reach), but increased 11 percent at the Elephant Rock site (Tidal Reach). The declines in bar area were associated primarily with the establishment of vegetation on upper bar surfaces lacking obvious vegetation in the 1960s. Some of the apparent changes in bar area may also owe to some differences in streamflow and tide levels between the vertical photographs. On the mainstem Rogue River, the median diameter of surface particles varied from 21 mm at the Wedderburn Bar in the Tidal Reach to more than 100 millimeters (mm) at some of the coarsest bars in the Galice Reach. Low armoring ratios tentatively indicated that sediment supply likely exceeds transport capacity at Orchard (Lobster Creek Reach) and Wedderburn (Tidal Reach) Bars. Conversely, relatively higher armoring ratios indicated that transport capacity likely is in balance with sediment supply at Roberston Bridge Bar (Merlin Reach) and exceeds sediment supply at Rogue River City (Grants Pass Reach), Solitude Riffle (Galice Reach), and Hooks Gulch (Galice Reach) Bars. Limited particle data were collected in the study areas on the Applegate and Illinois Rivers. Particle size measurements and armoring ratios tentatively show that sediment supply likely exceeds transport capacity at Bakery Bar in the Lower Applegate Reach. Also, the bed material exiting the Applegate River is likely finer than the bed material in the Rogue River, whereas bed material exiting the Illinois River is likely coarser than the bed material in the Rogue River. Together, these observations and findings indicate that (1) the size, area, and overall position of bars in the Rogue River study area are determined largely by valley physiography, such that unconfined alluvial sections have large channel-flanking bars, whereas confined sections have fewer and smaller bars, (2) segments within the Grants Pass, Merlin, Tidal, Upper Applegate River, and Lower Applegate River Reaches are prone to vertical and/or lateral channel adjustments, and (3) the balance between transport capacity and sediment supply varies throughout the study area. High winter flows and the steep, confined character of much of the Rogue River within the study area result in a river corridor with a high capacity to transport bed material. In the Grants Pass and Galice Reaches, the extensive in-channel bedrock as well as the sparse number and coarse texture of bars indicate that these reaches are likely supply-limited, meaning that the river’s transport capacity exceeds the supply of bed material. In contrast, the Lobster Creek and Tidal Reaches and perhaps portions of the Merlin Reach receive bed-material inputs that more closely balance or even exceed the river’s transport capacity. The lowermost reaches on the Illinois and Applegate Rivers are fully alluvial segments that are likely transport limited, meaning sediment supply likely exceeds the river's transport capacity. However, the steeper Upper Applegate River Reach is likely supply-limited as indicated by the sparse number and area of bars mapped in this reach and the intermittent bedrock outcrops in the channel. The sediment loads derived from these large tributaries draining the Klamath Mountains are probably important contributions to the overall transport of bed material in the Rogue River basin. Compared to the slightly smaller Umpqua River basin (drainage area 12,103 km 2 ) to the north, the Rogue River (13,390 km 2 ) likely transports more bed material. Although this conclusion of greater bed-material transport in the Rogue River is tentative in the absence of either actual transport measurements or transport capacity calculations, empirical evidence, including the much greater area and frequency of bars along most of the Rogue River as well as the much shorter tidal reach on the Rogue River (6.7 km) compared to the Umpqua River (40 km) supports this inference. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of channel condition, longitudinal trends in particle size, the relation between sediment supply and transport capacity, and the potential causes of bar area loss (such as vegetation establishment and potential changes in peak flow patterns). The reaches most practical for such assessments and relevant to several management and ecological issues are (1) the lower Rogue River basin, including the Lobster Creek and Tidal Reaches of the Rogue River as well as the Illinois River Reach and (2) the Lower Applegate River Reach.

Oregon↗

USGS2005

Ecology of Florida black bears in the Okefenokee-Osceola ecosystem

The population status of the Florida black bear ( Ursus americanus floridanus ) is problematic within many portions of its range and its potential listing as a federally threatened species has been the subject of legal debate. We studied Florida black bears in 2 areas in the Okefenokee-Osceola ecosystem in southeast Georgia (i.e.,Okefenokee) and north Florida (i.e., Osceola) from 1995 to 1999 to evaluate relationships between population characteristics, habitat conditions, and human activities. Bears in Okefenokee were hunted and those in Osceola were not. We captured 205 different black bears (124M:81F) 345 times from June 1995 to September 1998. We obtained 13,573 radiolocations from 87 (16M:71F) individual bears during the study. In Okefenokee, black gum ( Nyssa sylvatica ) and saw palmetto ( Serenoa repens ) fruits were the most important foods for bears based on scat analysis. In Osceola, corn from white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) feeders was the most stable food source but saw palmetto was heavily used when available. Corn from deer feeders was not available in Okefenokee. Adult bears in Osceola were 29% heavier than those in Okefenokee ( t 82 = 3.55, P <0.001). The mean annual home-range size for Osceola females ( x̄ =30.3 km 2 ± 4.0 [SE], n =53) varied little seasonally or annually and was almost half that of Okefenokee females (55.9 km 2 ± 6.9, n = 69; Z = –2.47, P = 0.014). In contrast, radiocollared females in Okefenokee expanded their home ranges during years of poor black gum production. That expansion was most apparent between autumn 1998 and 1999, when mean home-range size for Okefenokee females increased from 14.5 km 2 to 78.4 km 2 , respectively, and included a larger proportion of upland areas open to sport hunting. As a result, 5 females were harvested in the Okefenokee study area during the 1999 bear hunting season compared with only 7 harvested from 1996 to 1998. Home ranges of adult female bears were located in areas with disproportionately high loblolly bay ( Gordonia lasianthus ) and gum-bay-cypress ( Taxodium spp.) vegetation associations in Okefenokee and gum-bay-cypress associations in Osceola. The pine vegetation association ranked lower than most other associations within the home ranges of bears in both study areas even though much of the summer and autumn diets of bears included food items found almost exclusively in pine. Sixteen mortalities of radiocollared bears were documented in Okefenokee; hunting accounted for 11 (68.8%) of these deaths. The annual survival rate of radiocollared males in Okefenokee was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.53–0.88) whereas survival of females in Okefenokee was higher ( Z =18.87, P <0.001) at 0.89 (95% CI = 0.83–0.95). The survival rate for females in Osceola was 0.97 (95% CI = 0.92–1.00). Overall, 67 bears (51M:16F) were killed by hunters in the Okefenokee study area from 1995 to 1999. Based on all radiocollared bears in Okefenokee, many of which resided within areas closed to hunting, we estimated an annual harvest rate of 0.22 (95% CI = 0.03–0.37) for males and 0.07 (95% CI = 0.01–0.12) for females. When we excluded those bears that were not in areas open to hunting, however, the annual harvest rate rose to 0.37 (95% CI = 0.07–0.58) for males and 0.39 (95% CI = 0.09–0.58) for females. Following a black gum shortage in autumn 1995, only 1 of 15 radiocollared females in Okefenokee produced cubs in winter 1996. That low reproductive rate was in contrast to winter 1997, which followed heavy black gum production, when 21 of 22 radiocollared females produced cubs. Reproductive output was more consistent in the Osceola study area, with 46 cubs being produced from 8, 5, and 9 litters in 1997, 1998, and 1999, respectively. To estimate population size, we maintained 88 and 94 barbed-wire hair traps during 1999 in the Okefenokee and Osceola study areas, respectively. Using DNA collected at the hair traps, mark–recapture models produced estimates of 71 bears (95% CI = 59–91) in Okefenokee and 44 bears (95% CI = 40–57) in the Osceola study area during 1999. The estimated densities in the Okefenokee and Osceola study areas were 0.12 and 0.14 bears/km 2 , respectively. Alternative density estimates based on the amount of time bears spent within study area boundaries were similar (0.11 and 0.14 bears/km 2 on Okefenokee and Osceola, respectively). We used a population model to estimate the effect of harvest in the Okefenokee bear population. Excluding harvest, bears at Osceola experienced higher average annual population growth (λ = 1.184 ± 0.002) than those at Okefenokee (1.064 ± 0.002; t 18 = 3.93, P = 0.001), most likely due to protection from hunting and higher recruitment. Including the effects of emigration and immigration, we estimated an average annual sustainable harvest at Okefenokee of approximately 9 bears (12.6%), which was slightly less than the average 1995–1999 annual harvest of 9.4. That level of hunting in Okefenokee is sustainable but likely represents the highest exploitation rate in the region. Our mark–recapture data from Osceola suggest a high dispersal rate by subadult bears, and our population modeling data support this hypothesis; we documented bears in Okefenokee that originated from Osceola but not the reverse. We speculate that bears from the interior of the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR), and to some extent northern Florida, served as a source to the population sink caused by hunting mortality in Okefenokee and in the surrounding Georgia counties. Corn from deer feeders was the most probable reason for smaller home-range sizes and greater body masses and reproductive output at Osceola. Changes in management to eliminate or reduce baiting for deer with corn would negatively affect the Osceola bear population. On Okefenokee, sporadic black gum and palmetto production influenced harvest rates and cub production and, thus, governed bear population dynamics. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) concluded in 1998 that listing the Florida black bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 was not warranted. That decision was largely based on the stability and protection afforded to a few subpopulations within the range of the subspecies, which includes the Okefenokee-Osceola subpopulation; our results support that conclusion. However, we suggest that metapopulation processes among the various subpopulations be given greater consideration, with the ultimate goal of managing the sub-species as a unit rather than as an assemblage of independent components. Our study illustrates the importance of travel corridors for maintaining metapopulation processes.

Florida, Georgia↗