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Sediment loads and transport at constructed chutes along the Missouri River - Upper Hamburg Chute near Nebraska City, Nebraska, and Kansas Chute near Peru, Nebraska

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, monitored suspended sediment within constructed Missouri River chutes during March through October 2012. Chutes were constructed at selected river bends by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help mitigate aquatic habitat lost through the creation and maintenance of the navigation channel on the Missouri River. The restoration and development of chutes is one method for creating shallow-water habitat within the Missouri River to meet requirements established by the amended 2000 Biological Opinion. Understanding geomorphic channel-evolution processes and sediment transport is important for the design of chutes, monitoring and maintenance of existing chutes, and characterizing the habitat that the chutes provide. This report describes the methods used to monitor suspended sediment at two Missouri River chutes and presents the results of the data analysis to help understand the suspended-sediment characteristics of each chute and the effect the chutes have on the Missouri River. Upper Hamburg chute, near Nebraska City, Nebraska, and Kansas chute, near Peru, Nebraska, were selected for monitoring. At each study site, monthly discrete samples were collected from April through October in the Missouri River main-channel transects upstream from the chute inlet, downstream from the chute outlet, at the outlet (downstream transect) of both chutes, and at the inlet (upstream transect) of Kansas chute. In addition, grab samples from all chute sampling locations were collected using autosamplers. Suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and grain-size metrics were determined for all samples (discrete and grab). Continuous water-quality monitors recorded turbidity and water temperature at 15-minute intervals at the three chute sampling locations. Two acoustic Doppler velocimeters, one within each chute, measured water depth and current velocities continuously. The depth and velocity data were used to estimate streamflow within each chute. The sampling design was developed to understand the suspended-sediment differences within each chute and between the chute and the Missouri River main channel during discrete sampling. The sampling design also allowed for site-specific surrogate relations between SSC and turbidity to be developed, which could be used to compute real-time estimates of SSC and sediment loads within the chutes. Real-time estimates of SSC and sediment loads enable a better understanding of sediment transport within the chutes during times when physical samples are not collected, including periods of high flow. High flows during the summer of 2011 resulted in substantial alterations to both studied chutes; therefore, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers repaired and modified both chutes during 2012. These unforeseen repairs and modifications within the chutes added uncertainty to the analysis because concentrations were altered by construction equipment and flow alteration. Daily suspended-sediment and suspended-silt loads were estimated based on surrogate relations with turbidity. A linear regression was used to estimate equal-width increment (EWI)-equivalent SSC from autosampler SSC before using the model-calibration dataset to determine the best-fit model for prediction of SSC from the turbidity and, in some cases, discharge. Correlation between suspended-sand concentration ( SSandC ) in EWI samples and concurrent samples collected by an autosampler was low; therefore, SSandC was excluded from development of surrogate relations because a large part of the calibration dataset was from autosamples. Instead, SSandC was estimated as SSC minus suspended-silt-clay concentration ( SSiltC ). At all sites, the best-fit models included the base-10 logarithm of concentration and turbidity, and at Kansas chute upstream, the base-10 logarithm of streamflow was also included in the best-fit models. These surrogate models were used to estimate continuous time series of SSC and SSiltC . Estimated concentrations of suspended sediment were used to estimate instantaneous and daily loads for total suspended sediment, suspended silt-clay, and suspended sand. Estimated daily suspended-sediment loads were not significantly different between upstream and downstream transects within the Kansas chute, and most individual daily loads within the chute were not significantly different between upstream and downstream transects when evaluated using overlap in daily 95-percent confidence intervals. The comparison of daily load values for upstream and downstream chute transects, as estimated from turbidity-based surrogate models for Kansas chute, documents the daily dynamic nature of sediment transport within the chute with a temporal resolution that is not practical with discrete suspended-sediment sampling alone. Comparisons of concentrations and loads from EWI samples collected from different transects within a study site resulted in few significant differences, but comparisons are limited by small sample sizes and large within-transect variability. When comparing the Missouri River upstream transect to the chute inlet transect, similar results were determined in 2012 as were determined in 2008—the chute inlet affected the amount of sediment entering the chute from the main channel. In addition, the Kansas chute is potentially affecting the sediment concentration within the Missouri River main channel, but small sample size and construction activities within the chute limit the ability to fully understand either the effect of the chute in 2012 or the effect of the chute on the main channel during a year without construction. Finally, some differences in SSC were detected between the Missouri River upstream transects and the chute downstream transects; however, the effect of the chutes on the Missouri River main-channel sediment transport was difficult to isolate because of construction activities and sampling variability.

Nebraska↗

Simulation of streamflow using a multidimensional flow model for white sturgeon habitat, Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho – Supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5230

During 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed, calibrated, and validated a multidimensional flow model for simulating streamflow in the white sturgeon spawning habitat of the Kootenai River in Idaho. The model was developed as a tool to aid understanding of the physical factors affecting quality and quantity of spawning and rearing habitat used by the endangered white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and for assessing the feasibility of various habitat-enhancement scenarios to re-establish recruitment of white sturgeon. At the request of the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, the USGS extended the two-dimensional flow model developed in 2005 into a braided reach upstream of the current white sturgeon spawning reach. Many scientists consider the braided reach a suitable substrate with adequate streamflow velocities for re-establishing recruitment of white sturgeon. The 2005 model was extended upstream to help assess the feasibility of various strategies to encourage white sturgeon to spawn in the reach. At the request of the Idaho Department of Fish and Game, the USGS also extended the two-dimensional flow model several kilometers downstream of the white sturgeon spawning reach. This modified model can quantify the physical characteristics of a reach that white sturgeon pass through as they swim upstream from Kootenay Lake to the spawning reach. The USGS Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System was used for the 2005 modeling effort and for this subsequent modeling effort. This report describes the model applications and limitations, presents the results of a few simple simulations, and demonstrates how the model can be used to link physical characteristics of streamflow to the location of white sturgeon spawning events during 1994-2001. Model simulations also were used to report on the length and percentage of longitudinal profiles that met the minimum criteria during May and June 2006 and 2007 as stipulated in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Biological Opinion.

Idaho↗

Riparian and Associated Habitat Characteristics Related to Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Responses of Small Streams in Selected Agricultural Areas, United States, 2003-04

Physical factors, including both in-stream and riparian habitat characteristics that limit biomass or otherwise regulate aquatic biological condition, have been identified by previous studies. However, linking the ecological significance of nutrient enrichment to habitat or landscape factors that could allow for improved management of streams has proved to be a challenge in many regions, including agricultural landscapes, where many ecological stressors are strong and the variability among watersheds typically is large. Riparian and associated habitat characteristics were sampled once during 2003-04 for an intensive ecological and nutrients study of small perennial streams in five contrasting agricultural landscapes across the United States to determine how biological communities and ecosystem processes respond to varying levels of nutrient enrichment. Nutrient concentrations were determined in stream water at two different sampling times per site and biological samples were collected once per site near the time of habitat characterization. Data for 141 sampling sites were compiled, representing five study areas, located in parts of the Delmarva Peninsula (Delaware and Maryland), Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, and Washington. This report examines the available data for riparian and associated habitat characteristics to address questions related to study-unit contrasts, spatial scale-related differences, multivariate correlation structure, and bivariate relations between selected habitat characteristics and either stream nutrient conditions or biological responses. Riparian and associated habitat characteristics were summarized and categorized into 22 groups of habitat variables, with 11 groups representing land-use and land-cover characteristics and 11 groups representing other riparian or in-stream habitat characteristics. Principal components analysis was used to identify a reduced set of habitat variables that describe most of the variability among the sampled sites. The habitat characteristics sampled within the five study units were compared statistically. Bivariate correlations between riparian habitat variables and either nutrient-chemistry or biological-response variables were examined for all sites combined, and for sites within each study area. Nutrient concentrations were correlated with the extent of riparian cropland. For nitrogen species, these correlations were more frequently at the basin scale, whereas for phosphorus, they were about equally frequent at the segment and basin scales. Basin-level extents of riparian cropland and reach-level bank vegetative cover were correlated strongly with both total nitrogen and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) among multiple study areas, reflecting the importance of agricultural land-management and conservation practices for reducing nitrogen delivery from near-stream sources. When sites lacking segment-level wetlands were excluded, the negative correlation of riparian wetland extent with DIN among 49 sites was strong at the reach and segment levels. Riparian wetland vegetation thus may be removing dissolved nutrients from soil water and shallow groundwater passing through riparian zones. Other habitat variables that correlated strongly with nitrogen and phosphorus species included suspended sediment, light availability, and antecedent water temperature. Chlorophyll concentrations in seston were positively correlated with phosphorus concentrations for all sites combined. Benthic chlorophyll was correlated strongly with nutrient concentrations in only the Delmarva study area and only in fine-grained habitats. Current velocity or hydraulic scour could explain correlation patterns for benthic chlorophyll among Georgia sites, whereas chlorophyll in seston was correlated with antecedent water temperature among Washington and Delmarva sites. The lack of any consistent correlation pattern between habitat characteristics and organic material density (ash-free dry mass)

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Disease, environment, and pollution: Understanding drivers behind tumour outbreaks in sea turtles

Various wildlife diseases of the Anthropocene (the Anthropocene currently has no formal status in the Divisions of Geologic Time https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2018/3054/fs20183054.pdf , accessed 4 June 2024) have root causes that are found in human-driven environmental disturbances. Fibropapillomatosis of sea turtles is exemplary of a human-exacerbated wildlife disease, and this case study offers an overview of how we applied a One Health approach and interdisciplinary process to better understand its complexity and highlight the interconnections existing between the health of the environment, and of the wildlife and humans living in it. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have known detrimental effects on human and wildlife health. Ubiquitous in the environment, these degradation-resistant chemicals have a high bioaccumulation potential. This case study describes the interdisciplinary plan and One Health design implemented to measure the role of harmful pollutants in the occurrence of a marine turtle panzootic fibropapillomatosis (FP). FP is a neoplastic disease that causes the growth of debilitating tumours on soft tissues and internal organs. Disease incidence has been increasing significantly throughout the Anthropocene and the reasons are still uncertain. The pervasive effect of pollution in marine coastal habitats has often been hypothesized as a driver of high disease prevalence but never fully tested. Our project combines disease ecology, marine field biology, and chemical toxicology in the attempt to unravel the intricate dynamics behind FP. We here describe the complex process used to develop a methodology to measure levels of harmful seawater pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in important sea turtle habitats in Florida. The proposed contaminants are among the top priority harmful pollutants, highly carcinogenic in aquatic animals, and bioaccumulate in sea turtles. Although only providing a description of the methodological process, this case study can help future research to apply similar transdisciplinary studies in the context of wildlife diseases. Understanding the effects of anthropogenic-driven pollution activity on ocean health can clarify its consequences to the health of wildlife and humans living in and around that environment.

One Health Cases↗

Geology and biology of the "Sticky Grounds," shelf-margin carbonate mounds, and mesophotic ecosystem in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Shelf-margin carbonate mounds in water depths of 116–135 m in the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the central west Florida shelf were investigated using swath bathymetry, side-scan sonar, sub-bottom imaging, rock dredging, and submersible dives. These enigmatic structures, known to fisherman as the “Sticky Grounds”, trend along slope, are 5–15 m in relief with base diameters of 5–30 m, and suggest widespread potential for mesophotic reef habitat along the west Florida outer continental shelf. Possible origins are sea-level lowstand coral patch reefs, oyster reefs, or perhaps more recent post-lowstand biohermal development. Rock dredging recovered bioeroded carbonate-rock facies comprised of bored and cemented bioclastics. Rock sample components included calcified worm tubes, pelagic sediment, and oysters normally restricted to brackish nearshore areas. Several reef sites were surveyed at the Sticky Grounds during a cruise in August 2010 with the R/V Seward Johnson using the Johnson-Sea-Link II submersible to ground truth the swath-sonar maps and to quantify and characterize the benthic habitats, benthic macrofauna, fish populations, and coral/sponge cover. This study characterizes for the first time this mesophotic reef ecosystem and associated fish populations, and analyzes the interrelationships of the fish assemblages, benthic habitats and invertebrate biota. These highly eroded rock mounds provide extensive hard-bottom habitat for reef invertebrate species as well as essential fish habitat for reef fish and commercially/recreationally important fish species. The extent and significance of associated living resources with these bottom types is particularly important in light of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the northeastern Gulf and the proximity of the Loop Current. Mapping the distribution of these mesophotic-depth ecosystems is important for quantifying essential fish habitat and describing benthic resources. These activities can improve ecosystem management and planning of future oil and gas activities in this outer continental shelf region.

Continental Shelf Research↗

Multi-species telemetry quantifies current and future efficacy of a remote marine protected area

Large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs; > 1000 km 2 ) provide important refuge for large mobile species, but most do not encompass species' ranges. To better understand current and future LSMPA value, we concurrently tracked nine species (seabirds, cetaceans, pelagic fishes, manta rays, reef sharks) at Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef (PKMPA) in the U.S. Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument. PKMPA and the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone encompassed 39% and 54% of species movements ( n = 83; tracking duration range: 0.5–350 days), respectively. Species distribution models indicated 73% of PKMPA contained highly suitable habitat. Under two projected future scenarios (SSP 1–2.6, “Sustainability”; SSP 3–7.0, “Rocky Road”), strong sea surface temperature gradients initially could cause abrupt oceanic change resulting in predicted habitat loss in 2040–2050, followed by an equilibrium response and regained habitat by 2090–2100. Current and future suitable habitats were available adjacent to PKMPA, suggesting that increased MPA size could enhance protection. Our three-tiered approach combining animal tracking with publicly available remote sensing data and future projected environmental scenarios could be used to design, study, and monitor protected areas throughout the world. Holistic approaches that encompass diverse species and habitat use can enhance assessments of protected area designs. Animal telemetry and remote sensing may be helpful for ascertaining the extent to which other MPAs protect large mobile species in the future.

Kingman Reef, Palmyra Atoll, U.S. Pacific Islands ↗

Hydrographic and benthic mapping—St. Croix National Scenic Riverway—Osceola landing

High-resolution topographic and bathymetric mapping can assist in the analysis of river habitat. The National Park Service has been planning to relocate a boat ramp along the St. Croix River in Minnesota, across the river from the town of Osceola, Wisconsin, to improve visitor safety, improve operations for commercial use, enhance the overall visitor experience, and eliminate deferred maintenance at the landing. This landing grants access to the St. Croix River, which is a part of the National Park Service St. Croix National Scenic Riverway. Hydrographic and topographic surveys were needed to determine where the new location should be. The objective for these surveys was to provide baseline information in order to assess the direct effects of the landing relocation on physical habitat in areas adjacent to Osceola, Wisconsin. The study area for these surveys was about 18.5 hectares and located directly off the existing landing. Although the existing boat launch is referred to as the Osceola landing, it is located on the Minnesota side of the river and is the busiest National Park Service landing on the St. Croix River (National Park Service St. Croix National Scenic Riverway, 2020). This report documents methods and results of aquatic benthic mapping in a small area of the St. Croix River. The hydroacoustic and topographic surveys were collected from October 16–17, 2019. The hydrographic surveys consisted of multibeam and sidescan sound navigation and ranging (sonars). The topographic shoreline survey consisted of light detection and ranging (lidar) captured by boat adjacent to riverbanks. Additionally, an acoustic Doppler current profiler was used to measure flow velocities. The water level was higher than normal, and therefore had faster flow during the hydroacoustic surveys. Multibeam, lidar, and sidescan surveys occurred the first day, and the velocity mapping and ground truthing was conducted the second day. Multibeam and lidar provided derivative datasets that included bathymetry and a topobathy with a spatial resolution of 1 foot. From these data, additional data could be measured including slope and terrain ruggedness. Sidescan (acoustic reflectance measures) provided imagery that was used to help with interpretation of the river bottom. Outcomes from these combined datasets were substrate and bedform maps. Much of the area was covered in sand ripples or small dunes. A small area running adjacent to the deeper valley or cut down the river consisted of harder substrates, such as cobble and gravel. Large woody debris piles were found throughout the study area. Multiple stationary moving-bed tests were completed, and no corrections were recommended for the conditions occurring during survey. Mussel presence was noted in some of the underwater videos. The physical parameters of depth, flow, bedforms, and substrate derived from the datasets provided baseline measures for a benthic habitat map. Further analysis of benthic habitat might be possible with additional biological and chemical data.

Wisconsin↗

Assessing the likely effectiveness of multispecies management for imperiled desert fishes with niche overlap analysis

A critical decision in species conservation is whether to target individual species or a complex of ecologically similar species. Management of multispecies complexes is likely to be most effective when species share similar distributions, threats, and response to threats. We used niche overlap analysis to assess ecological similarity of 3 sensitive desert fish species currently managed as an ecological complex. We measured the amount of shared distribution of multiple habitat and life history parameters between each pair of species. Habitat use and multiple life history parameters, including maximum body length, spawning temperature, and longevity, differed significantly among the 3 species. The differences in habitat use and life history parameters among the species suggest they are likely to respond differently to similar threats and that most management actions will not benefit all 3 species equally. Habitat restoration, frequency of stream dewatering, non-native species control, and management efforts in tributaries versus main stem rivers are all likely to impact each of the species differently. Our results demonstrate that niche overlap analysis provides a powerful tool for assessing the likely effectiveness of multispecies versus single-species conservation plans.

Conservation Biology↗

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short‐term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well‐developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short‐ and long‐term. We summarize the current understanding of storm‐induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Global Change Biology↗

Investigation of wind and water level for the Giacomini Wetland Restoration Project, Point Reyes National Seashore

Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS), comprising unique elements of geological, biological, and historical interest, is located on the central California coast approximately 60 km northwest of San Francisco. The National Seashore contains nearly 130 km of exposed and protected shorelines, spectacular coastal cliffs and headlands, lagoons, open grasslands, bushy hillsides, and forested ridges. Approximately 30 km of the shoreline are coastal-dune habitat that supports 11 federally listed species, including the threatened western snowy plover and the endangered plants Tidestrom's lupine ( Lupinus tidestromii ) and beach layia ( Layia carnosa ). The San Andreas Fault, a right-lateral strike-slip fault, trends northwest along the northeastern side of the park. Tomales Bay, which is straight, long, narrow, and shallow, runs along the northeastern boundary of PRNS. The Bay, which fills the northwestern end of a rift valley at the intersection of the San Andreas Fault with the coastline, is approximately 20 km long, 2 km wide, and 6 m deep with mountainous terrain to the southwest and rolling hills to the northeast. Tomales Bay is one of the cleanest estuaries on the West Coast. In winter, approximately 17,000 to 20,000 shorebirds inhabit Tomales Bay and Bodega Bay, which lies directly to the north. At the head of Tomales Bay, the Giacomini Ranch comprises 563 acres of pastureland currently being used for grazing dairy cattle. After more than 50 years of operation as a dairy, the National Park Service acquired the Giacomini property with the intention to restore most of it and the nearby Olema Marsh to tidal wetland. Restoration will add approximately 4% to the existing coastal wetlands in California. The project will return the headwaters of Tomales Bay and two major stream intersections to an intertidal marsh environment, enhancing habitat for both wildlife and fish populations and contributing to the long-term health of Tomales Bay. Prior to the establishment of the ranch, the area was primarily salt marsh that formed as the delta of Lagunitas Creek expanded into Tomales Bay. In converting the salt marsh to dairy land, levees and tide gates were constructed to prevent tidal incursion and stream flooding. Those levees have significantly altered the patterns of estuarine circulation and sediment deposition. To restore natural hydrologic processes within the area and to promote the return of ecological functions and processes, the levees will have to be breached or removed. Developing a successful restoration strategy requires knowledge of elevations within the pastureland and the range of water depths that can be expected from tidal, river, and wind action. In support of the restoration program, the USGS provides technical assistance to PRNS in the form of a scientific study focusing on understanding the physical processes that could affect the Giacomini wetland restoration. The study will yield scientific products that NPS resource managers can use in designing and implementing the restoration project. Research elements include: - Develop a Geodetic Control Network (GCN) throughout PRNS that meets the standards specified National Geodetic Survey data base (the NGS "Bluebook"). The grid will allow this and future studies to be conducted to a precision commensurate with the expressed goals of PRNS. The survey will consist of three steps: (1) verify existing GPS control monuments in the area; (2) tie control monuments in the study areas to the GPS control monuments; and (3) establish NAVD88 elevations using a digital electronic level. - Conduct a detailed survey of the Giacomini site to produce an accurate topographic map of the property. The site survey can be coupled with on-site water-level measurements to produce an empirical flooding model. - Measure water level and wind regime at the Giacomini site. The water-level range is critical to determining the wetland types based on the elevation of the dairy land. Water level at Sacramento Landing, in central Tomales Bay, will also be measured for comparison. As of November 2005, we have created a GCN, produced a detailed topographic map of the Giacomini site, and collected approximately three years of water-level and wind data at the Giacomini site and over one year of usable water-level data at the Sacramento Landing pier.

California↗

An evaluation of the toxicity of potassium chloride, active compound in the molluscicide potash, on salmonid fish and their forage base

Potash, with the active ingredient potassium chloride (KCl) is a chemical that is currently being evaluated for potential use as a molluscicide to combat invasive zebra mussels and quagga mussels in Western United States waters. Although data available for other freshwater fishes indicate that recommended treatment levels of potash as a molluscicide are sublethal, this has not been demonstrated for all salmonid species. The objectives of this study were to perform toxicity testing to determine the lethality of potassium chloride against selected species of salmonid fish (brook trout and Chinook salmon) and selected invertebrate forage, and to identify any potential adverse physiological impacts of KCl to these salmonids in water at treatment levels used for mollusk eradication. Minimal mortality (n=1 fish) was observed during 96-hour toxicity testing at KCl concentrations of 0 to 800 milligrams per liter (mg/L), indicating that the lethal concentration (LC 50 ) values in these salmonid species were considerably higher than realistic molluscicide treatment concentrations. Sublethal effects were examined through evaluation of behavioral and morphological (histological) observation as well as specific blood chemistry parameters (electrolytes, osmolality, glucose, and cortisol). There was no strong evidence of significant physiological impairment among the two salmonid species due to KCl exposure. Whereas statistically significant differences in some parameters were observed in association with KCl treatments, it is unlikely that these differences indicate adverse biological impacts. Acute toxicity tests were conducted with invertebrate species at KCl exposure concentrations of 0–3,200 mg/L. Daphniid exposure trials resulted in differences in mortality among the test groups with higher mortality evident among the higher KCl exposure concentrations with a calculated LC 50 value of 196 mg/L KCl for a 48-hour exposure. Crayfish exposed to higher concentrations of KCl at or above 800 mg/L as specimens exhibited death or reversible paralysis. Chironomid larvae exposures were largely inconclusive because of cannibalistic behavior among the various test groups.

Open-File Report↗

Satellite-detected forest disturbance forecasts American marten population decline: The case for supportive space-based monitoring

Limited monitoring resources often constrain rigorous monitoring practices to species or populations of conservation concern. Insufficient monitoring can induce a tautology as lack of monitoring resources makes it difficult to determine whether a species or population deserves additional monitoring resources. When in-situ monitoring resources are limited, remote habitat monitoring could be a useful supplementary tool, as linking parameterized species distribution models to spatially explicit time-series of environmental correlates allows iterative prediction of population change. Yet the performance of predictive forecasts or hindcasts has been difficult to evaluate. We paired contemporary field data, historic population estimates, and a remotely-sensed archive of landscape change to evaluate predictions of American marten ( Martes americana ) population decline owing to habitat loss in Maine, USA. We estimated contemporary spatial patterns in marten density relative to landscape disturbance with spatial capture-recapture models. We compared current density estimates to historical density calculations to evaluate population decline, and compared historical calculations to habitat-based model predictions to evaluate the efficacy of habitat monitoring as a proxy for direct monitoring. Marten density was negatively associated with the proportion of surrounding regenerating forest, and point estimates within focal townships were 50–80% lower than historical calculations. Habitat-based hindcasts of marten density across our entire focal area interest suggested a smaller population decline (roughly 50%) within our focal area. Thus, although habitat-based predictions underpredicted marten decline, they provided correct directional inference. Habitat monitoring and predictions from species distribution models may provide useful inference about population changes given trends in habitat at limited expense when in-situ information is lacking.

Maine↗

Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO 2 . However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by −188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of −89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of −9.4% (−432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from −916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.

California↗

Merging integrated population models and individual-based models to project population dynamics of recolonizing species

Recolonizing species exhibit unique population dynamics, namely dispersal to and colonization of new areas, that have important implications for management. A resulting challenge is how to simultaneously model demographic and movement processes so that recolonizing species can be accurately projected over time and space. We introduce a framework for spatially explicit projection modeling that harnesses the rigorous parameter estimation made possible by an integrated population model (IPM) and the flexible movement modeling made possible by an individual-based model (IBM). Our framework has two components: [1] a Bayesian IPM-driven age- and state-structured population model that governs the population state process and estimation of demographic rates, and [2] an IBM-driven spatial model that allows for the projection of dispersal and habitat colonization. We applied this model framework to estimate current and project future dynamics of gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Washington State, USA. We used data from 74 telemetered wolves and yearly pup and pack counts to parameterize the model, and then projected statewide dynamics over 50 years. Mean population growth was 1.29 (95 % Bayesian Credible Interval = 1.26–1.33) during initial recolonization from 2009 to 2020 and decreased to 1.02 (95 % Prediction Interval = 0.98–1.04) in the projection period (2021–2070). Our results suggest that gray wolves have an ~100 % probability of colonizing the last of Washington State's three specified recovery regions by 2030, regardless of alternative assumptions about how dispersing wolves select new territories. Our spatially explicit projection model can be used to project the dynamics of any species for which spatial spread is an important driver of population dynamics.

Washington↗

Ecology of Lake Erie - Chemistry, plankton & planktivory: A synthesis

As with other large lake ecosystems worldwide, Lake Erie can be considered a moving target for management, owing to physicochemical and biological changes brought on by anthropogenic change, both planned (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management) and unplanned (e.g. climate change, invasive species, modified land-use activities). These changes have challenged efforts to conserve biodiversity, sustain exploitable resources, and maintain the integrity of services valued by society both within the Lake Erie basin and (Fraker et al., 2022; Fussell et al., 2016; Sinclair et al., 2021; Sinclair et al., 2023) and outside of it (Allan et al., 2013; Jenny et al., 2020; Sterner et al., 2017). Some of these changes and their ramifications for management were documented in the first of four AEHM special issues devoted to the Lake Erie ecosystem (the fourth issue of 2023, volume 26, issue 4; see overview by Ludsin et al., 2023). That special issue focused explicitly on nutrient inputs and availability in Lake Erie and the lower food web, including planktonic and benthic microbial (including cyanobacteria), algal, and invasive dreissenid mussel communities. Similar to the previous Lake Erie special issue, this second one has focused on documenting the state of the lake, providing ecological understanding that could potentially benefit management. While some overlap in topics exists between issues, the studies conducted herein were completely independent of those previous investigations and offer unique insights. Specifically, the contributions to this current issue center on: 1) dynamics of water chemistry in Lake Erie’s central basin (i.e. bottom hypoxia; Ackerman et al., 2024) and western basin (i.e. mercury; Starr et al., 2024); 2) changes in primary producer biomass (Lesht et al., 2024), cyanotoxins (i.e. microcystin; Zastepa et al., 2024), and water quality (e.g. water clarity and dissolved nutrients; Howell et al., 2024); and 3) larval fish foraging (i.e. Lake Whitefish; Coregonus clupeaformis; Amidon et al., 2024) and community structure and phenology (DeBruyne et al., 2024). Below we summarize the major findings of these papers and offer a synthetic perspective on the value of this research for understanding the state of Lake Erie and enhancing management.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management↗

Preliminary Surficial Geology of the Dove Spring Off-Highway Vehicle Open Area, Mojave Desert, California

Introduction As part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring plan to evaluate the environmental impact of off-highway vehicle (OHV) use on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in California, this report presents results of geologic studies in the Dove Spring OHV Open Area. This study produced baseline data, which when combined with historic and current patterns of land use, forms the basis for vegetation and wildlife monitoring designed to address the following questions: 1. Is the density and length of OHV routes increasing? 2. Are there cumulative effects of past and current OHV use associated with changes in the environmental integrity of soils, plants, and wildlife? 3. Is the spread of invasive species associated with levels of OHV use? 4. Is there a threshold of OHV impact that might be translated to management action by the BLM? The monitoring studies will be used to collect baseline environmental information to determine levels of environmental impact of OHV use. This approach will use a low-impact area as a proxy for pre-impact conditions (substituting space for time) to determine thresholds of OHV impacts beyond which environmental integrity is affected. Indicators of environmental integrity will emphasize factors that are fundamental to ecosystem structure and function and likely to be sensitive to OHV impacts. Surficial geology is studied because material properties such as texture and chemistry strongly control soil moisture and nutrient availability and therefore affect plant growth and distribution. An understanding of surficial geology can be used to predict and extrapolate soil properties and improve understanding of vegetation assemblages and their distribution. In the present study, vegetation associations may be examined as a function of surficial geology as well as other environmental variables such as slope, aspect, NRCS (National Resources Conservation Service) soil classification, elevation, and land-use history. Ground measurements of vegetation, biological soil crusts, compaction, and other information may be correlated with land use to identify possible ecological thresholds in OHV use that require monitoring. Surficial geology is relevant for several other studies of OHV impact, such as soil compaction, dust emissions, and acceleration of erosion. Compaction, reduced infiltration, and accelerated erosion have been documented in Dove Spring Canyon because of OHV use (Snyder and others, 1976) and elsewhere in the Mojave Desert (e.g., Webb, 1983; Langdon, 2000). A surficial geologic map enables the use of geomorphic process models, which when combined with measured soil properties, such as texture, nutrient chemistry, and bulk density, allows spatial extrapolation of the properties. Maps can be produced that predict compaction susceptibility, moisture conditions, dust emissions, flood hazards, and erodibility, among other applications.

Open-File Report↗

Range-wide connectivity of priority areas for Greater Sage-Grouse: Implications for long-term conservation from graph theory

The delineation of priority areas in western North America for managing Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) represents a broad-scale experiment in conservation biology. The strategy of limiting spatial disturbance and focusing conservation actions within delineated areas may benefit the greatest proportion of Greater Sage-Grouse. However, land use under normal restrictions outside priority areas potentially limits dispersal and gene flow, which can isolate priority areas and lead to spatially disjunct populations. We used graph theory, representing priority areas as spatially distributed nodes interconnected by movement corridors, to understand the capacity of priority areas to function as connected networks in the Bi-State, Central, and Washington regions of the Greater Sage-Grouse range. The Bi-State and Central networks were highly centralized; the dominant pathways and shortest linkages primarily connected a small number of large and centrally located priority areas. These priority areas are likely strongholds for Greater Sage-Grouse populations and might also function as refugia and sources. Priority areas in the Central network were more connected than those in the Bi-State and Washington networks. Almost 90% of the priority areas in the Central network had ≥2 pathways to other priority areas when movement through the landscape was set at an upper threshold (effective resistance, ER 12 ). At a lower threshold (ER 4 ), 83 of 123 priority areas in the Central network were clustered in 9 interconnected subgroups. The current conservation strategy has risks; 45 of 61 priority areas in the Bi-State network, 68 of 123 in the Central network, and all 4 priority areas in the Washington network had ≤1 connection to another priority area at the lower ER 4 threshold. Priority areas with few linkages also averaged greater environmental resistance to movement along connecting pathways. Without maintaining corridors to larger priority areas or a clustered group, isolation of small priority areas could lead to regional loss of Greater Sage-Grouse

The Condor↗

Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus): A literature survey and status report

It is generally agreed that the genus Odobenus includes only one species, O. rosmarus . At least two subspecies are widely recognized: O. r. rosmarus , the Atlantic walrus, and O. r. divergens , the Pacific walrus. A third nominal subspecies, O. r. laptevi , the Laptev walrus, is designated by some Soviet researchers; and the taxonomic status of the Kara Sea walrus is undetermined. The range and abundance of nearly all walrus stocks have been seriously reduced by intensive human exploitation. The Atlantic walrus, the principal subject of this study, remains plentiful in only three known areas of concentration: northern Hudson Bay and northern Foxe Basin in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and the Thule district of northwest Greenland. This animal is no longer the object of large-scale commercial hunting, but is still subject to heavy subsistence hunting by native groups in some areas. The status of the walrus population in Canada was investigated in the 1950's and is believed to have changed little since that time. There are probably no more than about 10,000 walruses in Canadian waters, virtually all of them in the eastern arctic. The biology, ecology, and exploitation of walruses in the Thule district were studied during the 1940's, and some information is available concerning recent catch levels and hunting practices. The Polar Eskimos of north Greenland continue to organize much of their cultural and economic life around the hunting of walruses, and the species remains abundant in their area, numbering at least a few thousand. The walrus stocks off west Greenland and in the Greenland, Barents, and Kara seas are the most critically depleted. No systematic field investigations of walruses east of Greenland have been made since the Kara Sea and Franz Josef Land populations were studied in the mid-1930's. Opportunistic sighting records and compilations of historical catch information indicate that the herds of many tens of thousands that once inhabited Svalbard, Bear Island, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, and other parts of the Eurasian Arctic have been very nearly extirpated. Measures to curb the international trade in walrus ivory and skins may benefit the Atlantic subspecies in Canada and north Greenland. Enforcement of existing regulations pertaining to hunting by aborigines, and perhaps the imposition of further restrictions on such activities, are necessary if the subspecies is to approach full recovery. Field studies in the northeast Atlantic and off west Greenland would help determine the current status of walruses and provide a better understanding of the requirements for their recovery in these areas. The Laptev walrus seems to have been reduced by overexploitation, but available information, most of it translated from Russian, is inconclusive. This subspecies was thought to number around 4,000 to 5,000 in 1975, and Soviet scientists have remarked on the need for a reduction in hunting pressure and protection of its habitat.

Wildlife Research Report↗