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Human-polar bear interactions

Human-wildlife interactions (HWI) are driven fundamentally by overlapping space and resources. As competition intensifies, the likelihood of interaction and conflict increases. In turn, conflict may impede conservation efforts by lowering social tolerance of wildlife, especially when human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a threat to human safety and economic well-being. Thus, mitigating conflict is one of the most consequential components of a wildlife management program, particularly for large carnivores. However, unlike other large carnivores, the causative factors and conservation consequences of interactions between humans and polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are poorly understood. Historically, mitigation of human-polar bear conflict has been a low management priority with the exception of a few locations where conflict had been a chronic concern. In part, this was because of low human densities in most of the Arctic and sea ice act as a physical barrier regulating the frequency of human-polar bear interactions. However, as the Arctic has warmed, anthropogenic activities have increased, and polar bears have become more reliant on land. As a result, mitigating interaction and conflict between humans and polar bears has become a growing concern. In this chapter, we explore the nexus of polar bear and human behavior and environmental change in driving the nature and intensity of human-polar bear interaction and conflict. We first provide an overview of behaviors that contribute to the occurrence of interactions and conflicts. We then review historical and contemporary drivers of interaction and conflict and examine how climate-mediated changes to Arctic marine and terrestrial environments are likely to influence distribution and types of future incidents. We close by proposing a conceptual framework that conservationists and managers can use to mitigate the likelihood of future human-polar bear conflict in a rapidly changing Arctic.

Book chapter↗

Evaluation of data collected by Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources during population establishment and monitoring of ko'ko' (Hypotaenidia owstoni) on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and wildlife monitoring datasets on Cocos Island and Guam

Efforts to recover the critically endangered ko’ko’ (Guam rail, Hypotaenidia owstoni) through establishing an experimental population on the island of Rota in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands have been ongoing for three decades. The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources and the Government of Guam to evaluate whether objectives for three projects can be met with current protocols. The aim of this report was to evaluate existing data provided on (1) ko’ko’ population monitoring on Rota; (2) ko’ko’ population establishment on Rota; plus (3) evaluation of three wildlife monitoring datasets for ko’ko’ on Cocos Island, endangered pulattat (Mariana common moorhen, Gallinula chloropus guami) on Guam, and introduced ungulate species on Guam. Data sources included playback call surveys, point count surveys, release events and studbook information, telemetry of radio-marked birds, as well as landcover classes, storm events, and Oceanic Niño Index information to relate environmental factors to ko’ko’ persistence. Major findings were that reaching objectives was constrained by limited data availability and quality. Suggestions for future study include developing detailed protocols for surveys and data collection, standardizing training procedures for observers, improving data organization and archiving, using methods like distance sampling that account for imperfect detection, and collecting additional data on nests and prey resources to understand drivers of ko’ko’ density and survival. While the current data provide a preliminary assessment, improved sampling designs and consistent protocols are needed to fully address objectives related to the recovery of the ko’ko’. The report provides a roadmap for enhancing data collection and analysis to support management decisions and reach conservation translocation goals about this endangered species and related projects.

Guam, Mariana Islands↗

Creating usable science: A Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center study

The southwestern United States consists of diverse ecosystems that are experiencing increasing pressures from rising temperatures, increasing aridity, and sea level rise. To prepare this region for future uncertainty, there is a need for strong partnerships among researchers and societal partners. The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) acts to foster engaged scholarship from diverse perspectives to produce science relevant for management and policy decisions. Here, we synthesized a subset of SW CASC-funded projects and published manuscripts to illustrate how the combination of new scientific knowledge and the research and practice of engaged scholarship produce actionable science with direct societal impacts. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Science section, we touch on new research produced from funded projects on the most common topics: (1) Forest Ecosystems, (2) Coastal Ecosystems, (3) Hydrometeorology, and (4) Research on Engaged Scholarship. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Impacts section, we outline engaged scholarship activities to demonstrate how they created societal impacts: (1) the Keepers of the Flame course and workshops, (2) the Southwest Fire Climate Adaptation Partnership and the Southern California Montane Forests Project, (3) the Coastal Managers Workshop, (4) the Colorado River Basin Wiki, and (5) the Natural Resource Workforce Development Program. In the SW CASC Publications Cited in Policy section, we used a bibliometric analysis to assess the impact of the SW CASC-funded research on policy. We analyzed how often publications were used in policy documents, finding a citation rate of 27.6%. This is high compared to similar analyses that found peer-reviewed research articles cited at a rate of 3.9% in policy documents. We conclude that coproduced science makes unique and important contributions to the resilience of the Southwest, not only by generating new knowledge but by building capacity, creating lasting relationships, and informing policy and conservation and management decisions.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

Assessment of a habitat equivalency analysis for freshwater mussels in the upper Mississippi River

The upper Mississippi River (UMR) contains diverse, dense, and reproducing assemblages of native freshwater mussels. In the case of an injury to mussels and their habitats, such as a hazardous material spill, train derailment, or barge grounding, resource managers have few restoration strategies. Resource managers need a means to document, quantify, and mitigate adverse effects on mussels resulting from injury. Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA), developed for use with a wide variety of habitat types, is a restoration scaling technique that compares ecological services lost from injury to ecological services gained through restoration actions. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Iowa Department of Natural Resources modified the HEA for use with native mussels. The mussel HEA has been applied within the UMR to estimate the quantity of restoration needed to compensate the public for injuries to mussels due to contaminant spills and construction projects. Our objective was to describe the UMR HEA for a general audience and assess if the four biological input variables used in the mussel HEA were reasonable based on literature values. We also evaluated the performance of HEA under a range of input scenarios. Although the input estimates used in HEA were within ranges reported in the peer-reviewed literature or were supported by professional judgment in the absence of peer-reviewed literature, outcomes of the mussel HEA were highly variable and would benefit from additional research to reduce uncertainty in the biological inputs. The application of HEA to mussels provides resource managers with a tool to quantify mussel-related ecological services lost from injury and to guide restoration efforts in the UMR.

Freshwater Mollusk Biology and Conservation↗

Balancing fish-energy-cost tradeoffs through strategic basin-wide dam management

Dam management often involves tradeoffs among hydropower generation capacity, environmental impacts, and project costs. However, our understandings of such tradeoffs under a full range of dam management options remain limited, which hinders our ability to make sound and scientifically defensible dam management decisions. In order to assess the scope for theoretical tradeoffs, a dynamic model of hydropower production, important fish populations, and project costs was developed using the system dynamics modeling technique. Three dam management options investigated the likely outcomes from: dam removal, fishway installation (e.g., pool-and-weir, Denil, and fish lift), and no action. The model was applied to the Penobscot River located in Maine, United States as a proof of concept, where recent actions (i.e., dam removal and fishway construction) have been undertaken. We modeled theoretical influence of these actions on four significant sea-run fish (alewife Alosa pseudoharengus , American shad Alosa sapidissima , Atlantic salmon Salmo salar , and sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus ) by developing an index of spawner population potential based on population models for each species. Optimal dam management solutions may maximize spawner population potential and energy production to 60-62% of maximum achievable values while limiting the project cost to US$17 million (44% of the maximum value). Our results demonstrate that basin-scale management strategies may increase the migratory fish restoration while preserving hydropower generation capacity. Diversification of management options (e.g., combination of fishway installations, dam removals, and generation capacity) may increase the efficacy of strategic fish-energy-cost tradeoffs.

Maine↗

Map of sand and gravel mines, prospects, and occurrences, and the geologic units that host them in the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) study area, southwestern Wyoming

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a long-term science based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale in southwest Wyoming, while facilitating responsible development through local collaboration and partnerships. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey is to build the scientifically defensible foundation on which WLCI planners, decisionmakers, and resource managers may base their activities. Understanding the distribution of mineral resources is integral to understanding where mineral development (mining) might be concentrated in the future and how that mining might affect habitats. This map and report focus on naturally-occurring sand and gravel, a form of construction aggregate.

Wyoming↗

Hydrogeologic characteristics and geospatial analysis of water-table changes in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas River Valley, southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District measures groundwater levels periodically in about 100 wells completed in the alluvial material of the Arkansas River Valley in Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, and Prowers Counties in southeastern Colorado, of which 95 are used for the analysis in this report. The purpose of this report is to provide information to water-resource administrators, managers, planners, and users about groundwater characteristics in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas Valley extending roughly 150 miles between Pueblo Reservoir and the Colorado-Kansas State line. This report includes three map sheets showing (1) bedrock altitude at the base of the alluvium of the lower Arkansas Valley; (2) estimated spring-to-spring and fall-to-fall changes in water-table altitude between 2002, 2008, and 2015; and (3) estimated saturated thickness in the alluvium during spring and fall of 2002, 2008, and 2015, and thickness of the alluvium in the lower Arkansas Valley. Water-level changes were analyzed by geospatial interpolation methods. Available data included all water-level measurements made between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2015; however, only data from fall and spring of 2002, 2008, and 2015 are mapped in this report. To account for the effect of John Martin Reservoir in Bent County, Colorado, lake levels at the reservoir were assigned to points along the approximate shoreline and were included in the water-level dataset. After combining the water-level measurements and lake levels, inverse distance weighting was used to interpolate between points and calculate the altitude of the water table for fall and spring of each year for comparisons. Saturated thickness was calculated by subtracting the bedrock surface from the water-table surface. Thickness of the alluvium was calculated by subtracting the bedrock surface from land surface using a digital elevation model. In order to analyze the response of the alluvium to varying environmental and anthropogenic conditions, the percentage of area of the lower Arkansas Valley showing an absolute change of 3 feet or less was calculated for each of the six water-table altitude change maps. For fall water-table altitude change maps, the periods between 2002 and 2008, 2008 and 2015, and 2002 and 2015 showed that 86.5 percent, 85.2 percent, and 66.3 percent of the study area, respectively, showed a net change of 3 feet or less. In the spring water-table altitude change maps these periods showed a net change of 3 feet or less in 94.4 percent, 96.1 percent, and 90.2 percent of the study area, respectively. While the estimated change in water-table altitude was slightly greater and more variable in fall-to-fall comparisons, these high percentages of area with relatively small net changes indicated that, at least in comparisons of the years presented, there was not a large amount of fluctuation in the altitude of the water table. The saturated thickness in the lower Arkansas Valley was between 25 and 50 feet in 34.4 to 35.9 percent of the study area, depending on the season and year. Between 30.2 and 35.6 percent of the area showed saturated thicknesses between 0 and 25 feet. Less than 1 percent of the area showed a saturated thickness greater than 200 feet in all mapped seasons and years.

Colorado↗

Characterization of water-resource threats and needs for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuges in the Legacy Mountain-Prairie Region, 2020

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), began a study in 2019 to complete the compilation and quality assurance of water-resource threats and needs data for the 117 National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the FWS Legacy Mountain-Prairie Region (LMPR) and to characterize the water-resource threats and needs of each refuge and of the LMPR itself. The LMPR encompasses the states of Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. This report includes the compilation and quality assurance of current (April 2020) water-resource threats and needs data for the refuges in the LMPR and a statistical, graphical, and spatial characterization, including the ranking and prioritization of threat types, threat causes, and needs by the number of occurrences in the LMPR as a whole and by refuges, states, and select U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Level III Ecoregions. A total of 540 unique threat occurrences were identified for 109 refuges in the LMPR. No threats were identified for eight refuges. About 43 percent of the threat occurrences, for 59 refuges, had a high-severity threat rating. Of the 10 most common threat types, 8 were also among the most common high-severity threat types. Water-resource threats had 72 different causes. About 83 percent of the overall common causes for threats and for high-severity threats were the same. The most common threat types overall and the most common high-severity threat types were compromised water management capability, habitat shifting/alteration, and altered flow regimes. The 20 water-resource threat types for Long Lake NWR were the most for refuges in the LMPR. Other refuges with the greatest number of threat types included Marais des Cygnes NWR (18) and Arapaho and Lee Metcalf NWRs (16 each). About 54 percent of refuges with threats had high-severity threats. Arapaho and Quivira NWRs each had 10 high-severity threat types, the maximum number of high-severity threat types for LMPR refuges. A total of 637 unique need occurrences were identified for 114 refuges. No needs were reported for three refuges. The most common need type, a Water Resource Inventory and Assessment, was reported for 78 refuges. Two of the most common need types, repair and replace water management infrastructure and water supply/quantity monitoring, were the most common high-priority need types. Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge had the most (39) unique water-resource need types for refuges in the LMPR. Other refuges with the greatest number of need types were Baca (38), Alamosa (36), and Monte Vista (36) NWRs. The most high-priority need types for a refuge was 23, at Monte Vista NWR. Alamosa (22), Baca (22), and Lake Andes (19) NWRs were also among the top 4 refuges with the greatest number of high-priority need types. An overall ranking scheme was developed to identify refuges that have the highest-ranking priority for conservation efforts to fulfill refuges’ statutory purposes. The count of occurrences of high-severity threats and high-priority needs were summed to determine the overall ranking value for a refuge. The 10 refuges with the highest overall ranking values, in order of ranking from higher to lower, were Alamosa, Baca, and Monte Vista NWRs (tied for highest); Lake Andes NWR, Ouray and Quivira NWRs, Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge and Flint Hills NWR, Cokeville Meadows NWR, and Arapaho NWR. About 33 percent of overall threat occurrences were reported as under the control of the FWS to mitigate, as were 37 percent of all threat occurrences with a high-severity rating. The most common overall threat types and high-severity threat types under FWS control were compromised water management capability; habitat shifting/alteration; altered flow regimes; loss/alteration of wetland habitat; and legal challenges or fines for non-compliance with water policy, law, or regulation. A total of 68 percent of overall need occurrences and 67 percent of all high-priority need occurrences were under the control of the FWS. The most common overall need types and high-priority needs types under control were repair or replace water management infrastructure, water supply/quantity monitoring, water quality baseline monitoring, and protect habitat from invasive species. A Water Resource Inventory and Assessment was also a common overall need under FWS control, as was the high-priority need of water level monitoring.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗

An overview of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership science and research synthesis

Maintaining and restoring the diverse ecosystems and resources that occur in southern Nevada in the face of rapid socio-economic and ecological change presents numerous challenged to Federal land managers. Rapid population growth since the 1980s, the land uses associated with that growth, and the interactions of those uses with the generally dry and highly variable climate result in numerous stresses to ecosystems, species, and cultural resource. In addition, climate models predict that the rate of temperature increase and, thus, changes in ecological processes, will be highest for ecosystems like the Mojave Desert. The Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http:www.SNAP.gov) was established in 1999 to address common issues pertaining to public lands in southern Nevada. Partners include the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USDA Forest Service and they work with each other, the local community, and other partners. SNAP agencies manage more than seven million acres of public lands in southern Nevada (95% of the land area). Federal land includes two national recreation areas, two national conservation area, four national wildlife refuges, 18 congressionally designated wilderness areas, five wilderness study areas, and 22 areas of critical environmental concern. The partnership's activities are mainly centered in Southern Nevada's Clark County (fig. 1.1), but lands managed by SNAP partner agencies also include portions of Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Mohave County, Arizona, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USDA Forest Service-managed lands in Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada, and all lands and activities managed by the Southern Nevada District Office of the Bureau of Land Management. These lands encompass nine distinct ecosystem types (fig. 1.2), support multiple species of management concern an 17 listed species, and are rich in cultural and historic resource. This introductory executive summary discusses the Science and Research Strategy developed by the SNAP agencies, the Science and Research Report, and need for science-based management in southern Nevada.

Nevada↗

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and constraints on adaptive capacity (characteristics of the surrounding landscape) rather than exposure to external forces, including climate change. Output will allow individual park managers to understand which metrics weigh most heavily in the overall vulnerability of their park and can be used for region-wide responses and resource allocation for adaptation efforts.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michiga↗

Effects of best-management practices in the Black Earth Creek Priority Watershed, Wisconsin, 1984-98

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey began a comprehensive, multidisciplinary evaluation-monitoring program in 1989 to assess the effectiveness of the Wisconsin Nonpoint Source Program. Hydrologic and water-quality data were collected at Brewery and Garfoot Creeks in 1984 and 1985 (pre-best-management practices (BMPs) period) and 1997 and 1998 (post-BMP period). In rural areas, best-management practices may include conservation tillage, contour strip-cropping, streambank protection, and various barnyard-runoff controls. Water-quality samples were collected during base flow and storms. At Brewery Creek, no statistically significant differences in the median base flow water-quality concentrations between the pre- and post-BMP periods. At Garfoot Creek, the median suspended-sediment concentration at base flow decreased by 41 percent between the pre- and post-BMP periods and the median ammonia nitrogen concentration decreased by 67 percent. Both of these differences were statistically significant at the 0.05 (probability) level. For both Brewery and Garfoot Creeks, the median storm loads for suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen were compared statistically by means of the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. This test also was applied to regression residuals for differences between the pre- and post-BMP periods. For Garfoot Creek, only the median load for ammonia nitrogen shows a statistically significant difference between the pre-and post-BMP periods. None of the median storm loads for Brewery Creek were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The decrease of the regression residuals between the pre- and post-BMP periods for ammonia nitrogen at Brewery Creek and for total phosphorus and ammonia nitrogen at Garfoot Creek all were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. These reductions between the pre- and post-BMP periods likely are results of the installed BMPs. The effectiveness of the BMPs on water quality are watershed specific. The effectiveness of the practice will depend on the type, number, and location of the BMPs implemented.

Wisconsin↗

Quantifying home range habitat requirements for bobcats (Lynx rufus) in Vermont, USA

We demonstrate how home range and habitat use analysis can inform landscape-scale conservation planning for the bobcat, Lynx rufus , in Vermont USA. From 2005 to 2008, we outfitted fourteen bobcats with GPS collars that collected spatially explicit locations from individuals every 4 h for 3–4 months. Kernel home range techniques were used to estimate home range size and boundaries, and to quantify the utilization distribution (UD), which is a spatially explicit, topographic mapping of how different areas within the home range are used. We then used GIS methods to quantify both biotic (e.g. habitat types, stream density) and abiotic (e.g. slope) resources within each bobcat’s home range. Across bobcats, upper 20th UD percentiles (core areas) had 18% less agriculture, 42% less development, 26% more bobcat habitat (shrub, deciduous, coniferous forest, and wetland cover types), and 33% lower road density than lower UD percentiles (UD valleys). For each bobcat, we used Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate and compare 24 alternative Resource Utilization Functions (hypotheses) that could explain the topology of the individual’s UD. A model-averaged population-level Resource Utilization Function suggested positive responses to shrub, deciduous, coniferous forest, and wetland cover types within 1 km of a location, and negative responses to roads and mixed forest cover types within 1 km of a location. Applying this model-averaged function to each pixel in the study area revealed habitat suitability for bobcats across the entire study area, with suitability scores ranging between −1.69 and 1.44, where higher values were assumed to represent higher quality habitat. The southern Champlain Valley, which contained ample wetland and shrub habitat, was a concentrated area of highly suitable habitat, while areas at higher elevation areas were less suitable. Female bobcat home ranges, on average, had an average habitat suitability score of near 0, indicating that home ranges consisted of both beneficial and detrimental habitat types. We discuss the application of habitat suitability mapping and home range requirements for bobcat conservation and landscape scale management.

Vermont↗

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publicly available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Wyoming↗

Estimation of baseflow and flooding characteristics for East Canyon Creek, Summit and Morgan Counties, Utah

An improved understanding of hydrologic responses to changing climatic conditions is needed to better inform water management practices. East Canyon Creek, a perennial, snowmelt-dominated stream in the Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah, is subjected to increasing development and demands on water in the Snyderville Basin and adjacent areas. In this study, streamflow and specific conductance measured at three U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on East Canyon Creek were used to estimate daily baseflow for water years 2011–22. Trends in these estimates and correlations with climate data from two Natural Resource Conservation Service snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations within the Snyderville Basin above East Canyon Reservoir, were quantified and reported. Peak annual streamflow also was assessed for flood potential on the study reach of East Canyon Creek. The hydrograph separations showed consistent baseflow indices among all sites, with a larger baseflow component during the fall–spring period (September–April; baseflow indices approximately equal to [≈] 0.751–0.835) and smaller component during the summer period (May–August; baseflow indices ≈ 0.428–0.532). In-stream specific conductance during spring (February–April) was influenced by road salt application, limiting the utility of the hydrograph separation approach. Annual streamflow and climate data were evaluated for trends using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, with inconclusive results. Related tests for trends, the Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests, were used to evaluate data at monthly timesteps and indicated a decreasing trend in total streamflow and baseflow at all streamgages. The rank-based Kendall’s tau test for correlation was used to measure the ordinal association with climatic data at co-located SNOTEL stations. Total streamflow and baseflow were strongly correlated with precipitation and snow-water equivalent. By incorporating a predictive regression model, the nonparametric Theil–Sen line, these correlations could support the development of streamflow forecast models using climate data from SNOTEL stations. Such models would provide water managers with tools to help make proactive decisions, such as reservoir or water reclamation releases and curtailment of withdrawals, in response to regional drought or varying snowpack and spring runoff in a given year.

Utah↗

An interagency perspective on improving consistency and transparency of land use and land cover mapping

Executive Summary Geospatial products of land use and land cover are broadly used in many applications. For example, the annual national greenhouse gas inventory uses the National Land Cover Database, the Coastal Change Analysis Program, Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools, the Forest Inventory and Analysis, and the National Resources Inventory to represent the land use and management base of the United States and attribute sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Federally produced land use and land cover datasets for the United States, including those from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, set the foundation for developing and informing applications such as land change, conservation, greenhouse gas monitoring, urban planning, agricultural production, ecosystem functions, and water quantity and use. No single land use and land cover product is optimal for all land use and land cover applications. Approaches for defining and mapping land use and land cover classes differ across Federal map products, reflecting the tailoring of product specifications to match specific agency needs. These differing approaches present a challenge when attempting to integrate and harmonize multiple land use and land cover products into single analysis or application frameworks. Nuanced understanding of how these products are designed and produced may not be immediately evident to users; however, the availability of a diverse suite of products also represents an opportunity, providing multiple approaches for observing landscape change. In response to the National Strategy to Advance an Integrated U.S. Greenhouse Gas Measurement, Monitoring, and Information System, this Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium-led interagency report presents (1) the current status of U.S. Federal land use and land cover products (as of May 2024), (2) existing synergies and integration among these federally produced land use and land cover products, (3) inherent challenges of creating a single consistent framework, and (4) strategies for collectively tackling these challenges to improve coordination and collaboration among data producers and facilitate the adoption of land use and land cover products for greenhouse gas monitoring and a variety of other applications.

Circular↗

Landsat classification of surface-water presence during multiple years to assess response of playa wetlands to climatic variability across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

To improve understanding of the distribution of ecologically important, ephemeral wetland habitats across the Great Plains, the occurrence and distribution of surface water in playa wetland complexes were documented for four different years across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) region. This information is important because it informs land and wildlife managers about the timing and location of habitat availability. Data with an accurate timestamp that indicate the presence of water, the percent of the area inundated with water, and the spatial distribution of playa wetlands with water are needed for a host of resource inventory, monitoring, and research applications. For example, the distribution of inundated wetlands forms the spatial pattern of available habitat for resident shorebirds and water birds, stop-over habitats for migratory birds, connectivity and clustering of wetland habitats, and surface waters that recharge the Ogallala aquifer; there is considerable variability in the distribution of playa wetlands holding water through time. Documentation of these spatially and temporally intricate processes, here, provides data required to assess connections between inundation and multiple environmental drivers, such as climate, land use, soil, and topography. Climate drivers are understood to interact with land cover, land use and soil attributes in determining the amount of water that flows overland into playa wetlands. Results indicated significant spatial variability represented by differences in the percent of playas inundated among States within the GPLCC. Further, analysis-of-variance comparison of differences in inundation between years showed significant differences in all cases. Although some connections with seasonal moisture patterns may be observed, the complex spatial-temporal gradients of precipitation, temperature, soils, and land use need to be combined as covariates in multivariate models to effectively account for these patterns. We demonstrate the feasibility of using classification of Landsat satellite imagery to describe playa-wetland inundation across years and seasons. Evaluating classifications representing only 4 years of imagery, we found significant year-to-year and state-to-state differences in inundation rates.

Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative↗

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water model, version 2

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that generate daily water-level and water-depth data, and applications that compute derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the greater Everglades landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN in order for EDEN to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The EDEN surface-water model, version 2 (V2), interpolates water-level data from a network of 240 gages to generate gridded daily water-level surfaces for the freshwater domain of the Everglades. When these spatiotemporal continuous surfaces are combined with EDEN’s digital elevation model of ground surface, derived hydrologic data provide scientists and water managers working in the Everglades with data necessary to analyze ecological and biotic responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. Derived datasets include water depth, recession rates, days since last dry, water-surface slopes, and hydroperiod. The V2 model includes enhancements from the previous model (version 1; V1) to accommodate changes in the water-level gage network, adjustments to water-level data, improved understanding of the flow dynamics (particularly near canals), and installation of an elevation benchmark network. Enhancements to the V2 model included Expansion of the EDEN domain: The model domain was expanded to include a part of southern Big Cypress National Preserve and northwestern Everglades National Park upstream of the marsh mangrove wetlands, thus completing the coastal connection along the southwestern boundary of the model; and Development of subdomain models: To account for insufficient water-control structure gage data at some subbasin boundaries, subdomain models were developed for five subdomains, and the resulting water-level surfaces were merged to generate the final water-level surface. Model performance statistics show a general improvement in the V2 model as compared to the V1 model. Overall, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was reduced by 2.42 centimeters (cm) to 4.68 cm. In Water Conservation Area 3A North and Water Conservation Area 3B, the RMSE was reduced by 10.88 and 9.15 cm, respectively. In addition to evaluating model performance statistics, 2-cm water-level maps were generated and evaluated for irregular contours that would indicate a potential problem either with data input or water-level estimates. Three applications of the EDEN-modeled water surfaces and other EDEN datasets are presented in the report to show how scientists and resource managers are using EDEN datasets to analyze biological and ecological responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. The biological responses of two important Everglades species, alligators and wading birds, to changes in hydrology are described. The effects of hydrology on fire dynamics in the Everglades are also discussed.

Florida↗

Spatially explicit management of genetic diversity using ancestry probability surfaces

1. Ecological restoration and conservation efforts are increasing worldwide and the management of intraspecific genetic variation in plants and animals, an important component of biodiversity, is increasingly valued. As a result, tailorable, spatially explicit approaches to map genetic variation are needed to support decision-making and management frameworks related to the recovery of threatened and endangered species and the maintenance of genetic resources in species utilized by humans, such as for restoration or agricultural purposes. 2. Here, we describe and demonstrate a workflow to spatially interpolate patterns of genetic differentiation using novel functions in the R package POPMAPS ( Pop ulation M anagement using A ncestry P robability S urfaces). Our approach uses empirical genetic data to estimate ancestry coefficients across a user-defined landscape correlated with patterns of differentiation in the focal species. The resulting surface, which we term the ancestry probability surface, includes two components: hard population boundaries and estimations of uncertainty that represent confidence in population assignments (i.e., ancestry probabilities). 3. An ancestry probability surface developed for Hilaria jamesii , an important graminoid utilized in restoration across the western United States, demonstrates the functionality of POPMAPS . Genetic distances among empirical sites correlated better with least-cost distances across suitable habitat than with geographic distances, informing the surface over which the interpolation was conducted (i.e., a model indicating habitat suitability). A jackknifing procedure identified parameter values resulting in robust population assignments across the species’ range, which were utilized in downstream analyses to estimate ancestry coefficients from empirical data. Ancestry coefficients were translated into ancestry probabilities, which tended to be low for cells that were intermediate in distance between empirical sampling locations representing different populations or when influenced by empirical sampling locations with mixed genetic ancestry. 4. POPMAPS allows users to tailor parameter values and analytical approaches and thereby incorporate species-specific biological characteristics and desired levels of uncertainty into maps illustrating patterns of genetic differentiation. Ancestry probability surfaces may be used to guide management or investigate further ecological or evolutionary hypotheses. We discuss how maps produced by POPMAPS can inform multiple management challenges including species recovery planning and the utilization of commonly used species in restoration.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗