SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

USGS1978

Distinctive sedimentary features of cold-climate eolian deposits, North Park, Colorado

Cold-climate eolianites contain diagnostic sedimentary features that contrast with the sedimentary features of warm-climate eolianites. Distinctive tensional, compressional, and dissipation sedimentary structures related to freezing, thawing and snow melting characterize eolian dune-sand deposits in North Park, Colorado. The North Park dunes have few of the characteristics considered to be diagnostic eolian indicators. A significant difference is the heterogeneous texture and composition of the sand. The migration rate of these active dunes is slow (???1.7 m/year) due to freezing of moisture in the sand or to burial of the sand by snow during half of the year, even though the dunes occur in a unimodal, high-energy wind environment. Bioturbation is common in both active and inactive dunes, although the dunes occur at a high elevation ({reversed tilde} 2500m) in a cold climate (3.0??C mean annual temperature). The distinctive sedimentary features observed in this cold-climate (snow-related) dune field should aid in the interpretation of eolianites and the paleoclimates in which they formed. ?? 1978.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS1992

Pliocene and Pleistocene geologic and climatic evolution in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado

Sediments of the Alamosa Formation spanning the upper part of the Gauss and most of the Matuyama Chrons were recovered by coring in the high (2300 m) San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado. The study site is located at the northern end of the Rio Grande rift. Lithologic changes in the core sediments provide evidence of events leading to integration of the San Luis drainage basin into the Rio Grande. The section, which includes the Huckleberry Ridge Ash (2.02 Ma) and spans the entire Matuyama Chron, contains pollen, and invertebrate and vertebrate fossils. Stable isotope analyses of inorganic and biogenic carbonate taken over most of the core indicate substantially warmer temperatures than occur today in the San Luis Valley. At the end of the Olduvai Subchron, summer precipitation decreased, summer pan evaporation increased, and temperatures increased slightly compared to the earlier climate represented in the core. By the end of the Jaramillo Subchron, however, cold/wet and warm/dry cycles become evident and continue into the cold/wet regime associated with the deep-sea oxygen-isotope Stage 22 glaciation previously determined from outcrops at the same locality. Correspondence between the Hansen Bluff climatic record and the deep-sea oxygen-isotope record (oxygen-isotope stages from about 110-18) is apparent, indicating that climate at Hansen Bluff was responding to global climatic changes.

Colorado↗

USGS1993

The magnitude and rapidity of the climate change marking the end of the Pleistocene in the mid-latitudes of South America

The chi-squared test of independence and cluster analysis of Otsuka similarity coefficients of fossil beetle assemblages from the Chilean Lake Region in the mid-latitudes of South America support the following conclusions: (1) the mean summer temperature of the glacial climate was 4-5??C lower than today's climate; (2) the climatic change from glacial to interglacial mode was in a single step centered on about 14,000 yr B.P.; (3) the climatic change was rapid, and within 1500 years the biota of a moorland had been completely replaced by a biota of a rain forest; (4) by 12,500 yr B.P., the low elevation beetle fauna of the Chilean Lake Region was similar in composition to that of the present day; and (5) no reversal in the postglacial warming trend, equivalent in age to the Younger Dryas Stade, was detected.

Chilean Lake Region↗

USGS2017

Appraisal of the future climate of the Holocene in the Rocky Mountains

Consideration of the history of Holocene climate in the Rocky Mountains indicates that the over-all trend during the past 2500 yr has been toward increasing warmth, interrupted by cooler times of minor advances of cirque glaciers. Comparison of Holocene climatic history with the record of past interglacials in the region suggests that the present interglacial is not complete and that the climate may become first warmer and subsequently wetter before it is completed. Correlation of the timing of the regional glacial-interglacial record for the past 140,000 yr with the record of major sea level changes and with the calculated changes in the earth's insolation suggest that the present interglacial may be completed within a few millenia and that it may be followed by a significant cooling of the climate.

Rocky Mountain region↗

USGS1990

Climatic influences on species: Evidence from the fossil record

The detailed Neogene and Quaternary paleoclimatic reconstructions now available provide a means to test how species respond to environmental change. Paleontologic studies of marine organisms show that climatic change causes evolution (via cladogenesis and anagenesis), ecophenotypic variation, migration, morphologic stasis and extinction. Evolution during climatic change is a rare event relative to the number of climatic cycles that have occurred, but climate-related environmental barriers, usually temperature, may play an important role in the isolation of populations during allopatric speciation.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS1991

Pliocene environments and climates in the western United States

The available evidence from the western United States suggests that the climate of the Early and Middle Pliocene (prior to ∼2.4 Ma) was less seasonal (more equable) and generally more humid than now. Along the Pacific coast, summer drought was less pronounced than today. In the interior of the Pacific Northwest rainfall was more abundant and mild winter temperatures prevailed across much of the High Plains. In the Northwestern interior, a trend toward drier conditions began after ∼4 Ma, although there may have been short periods of relatively humid conditions after this time. The period between 2.5 or 2.4-2.0 Ma was drier than earlier in the Pliocene throughout the American West, and apparently colder in many regions, although the occurrence of land tortoises as far north as Kansas may indicate intermittent frost-free conditions during this interval. After ∼2.0 Ma conditions became warmer and more humid. The general climatic trends in the terrestrial data parallel fluctuations seen in North Pacific and in Oxygen Isotopic records of global glacial fluctuations. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the regional effects of Late Cenozoic uplift and mountain-building are generally in accord with the nature, direction, and amplitude of differences between Pliocene and modern climates.

western United States↗

USGS1996

Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modem conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2 ° × 2 ° global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2 ° × 2 ° grid. A modern 1 ° × 1 ° vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

Marine Micropaleontology↗

USGS2012

Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies.

Aeolian Research↗

USGS2009

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha −1 year −1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha −1 year −1 . To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS2021

Livestock grazing, climatic variation, and breeding phenology jointly shape disease dynamics and survival in a wild amphibian

Wildlife responses to infectious disease can be influenced by environmental stressors that alter host-pathogen dynamics. We investigated how livestock grazing, climatic variation, and breeding phenology influence disease prevalence and annual survival in boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) populations challenged with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), a fungal pathogen implicated in global amphibian declines. We conducted a five-year (2015–2019) capture-recapture study of boreal toads ( n = 1301) inhabiting pastures grazed by cattle in western Wyoming, USA. We employed structural equation models to determine whether the effects of climatic variation on Bd prevalence were direct or mediated through effects on breeding phenology and multi-state models to explore the interplay of grazing, weather, and Bd infection on adult survival. Higher winter snowpack was linked with shorter spring breeding seasons, which were associated with lower Bd prevalence. Boreal toads infected with Bd suffered increased mortality, but only at relatively cool temperatures. Although cattle grazing created warmer microclimates, likely by reducing vegetation cover, grazing-induced habitat changes did not scale up to influence adult survival. Our results suggest that boreal toads in cooler environments face increased risk of disease-induced mortality, possibly because infected individuals are not able to elevate body temperature to reduce or clear infection. More generally, we demonstrate that host-pathogen dynamics can be shaped jointly by independent and interactive effects of livestock grazing, breeding season length, and climatic variation. Future investigations of wildlife responses to disease therefore may benefit from considering anthropogenic land use and climatic regimes, including the effect of weather on host phenology.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Cryptic declines of small, cold-water specialists highlight potential vulnerabilities of headwater streams as climate refugia

Increasing temperatures and climate-driven disturbances like wildfire are a growing threat to many species, including cold-water specialists. Montane areas and cold streams are often considered climate refugia that buffer communities against change. However, climate refugia are often species-specific, and despite growing awareness that life histories and habitat requirements shape responses to change, small or non-game species are often under-represented in monitoring and planning programs. A recent study in Montana, USA, revealed much larger warming-related declines in occupancy for small, non-game slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) between 1993 and 1995 and 2011–2013 than for two socially valued salmonid fishes that shape regional conservation efforts. To broaden insight into climate change vulnerabilities of headwater stream communities, we analyzed data for Rocky Mountain tailed frogs ( Ascaphus montanus ) that were collected during those same electrofishing surveys for fishes from 241 stream reaches. Tailed frogs occupy small, cold streams and have several life-history traits that make them sensitive to environmental change. We used a Bayesian framework to estimate occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics relative to forest canopy, estimated stream temperature, and wildfire effects. Tailed frog occupancy decreased by 19 % from 1993 to 1995 to 2011–2013. Changes in occupancy were linked with increased extinction and reduced colonization where there were fire-driven reductions in canopy cover, and reduced colonization of stream reaches that warmed on average 0.8 °C during the study. Our results highlight extensive extirpations for oft-overlooked species and emphasize the importance of including species with diverse habitat requirements and life histories in conservation planning.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2016

A call to insect scientists: Challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change

As climate change moves insect systems into uncharted territory, more knowledge about insect dynamics and the factors that drive them could enable us to better manage and conserve insect communities. Climate change may also require us revisit insect management goals and strategies and lead to a new kind of scientific engagement in management decision-making. Here we make five key points about the role of insect science in aiding and crafting management decisions, and we illustrate those points with the monarch butterfly and the Karner blue butterfly, two species undergoing considerable change and facing new management dilemmas. Insect biology has a strong history of engagement in applied problems, and as the impacts of climate change increase, a reimagined ethic of entomology in service of broader society may emerge. We hope to motivate insect biologists to contribute time and effort toward solving the challenges of climate change.

Current Opinion in Insect Science↗

USGS2012

Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?

Climate envelope models are widely used to forecast potential effects of climate change on species distributions. A key issue in climate envelope modeling is the selection of predictor variables that most directly influence species. To determine whether model performance and spatial predictions were related to the selection of predictor variables, we compared models using bioclimate variables with models constructed from monthly climate data for twelve terrestrial vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using two different algorithms (random forests or generalized linear models), and two model selection techniques (using uncorrelated predictors or a subset of user-defined biologically relevant predictor variables). There were no differences in performance between models created with bioclimate or monthly variables, but one metric of model performance was significantly greater using the random forest algorithm compared with generalized linear models. Spatial predictions between maps using bioclimate and monthly variables were very consistent using the random forest algorithm with uncorrelated predictors, whereas we observed greater variability in predictions using generalized linear models.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2018

Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r 2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20–25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California↗

USGS2020

Projected climate and land use changes drive plant community composition in agricultural wetlands

Playa wetlands in the Great Plains, USA support a wide variety of plant species not found elsewhere in this agriculturally-dominated region due to the ephemeral presence of standing water and hydric soils within playas. If longer dry periods occur due to climate change or if changes in surrounding land use alter sediment accumulation rates and water storage capacity in playas, plant communities could experience decreased diversity, with lasting effects on ecosystem services provided by playas in the Great Plains and at a continental-level in North America. We quantified potential changes in playa wetland plant community composition associated with predicted changes in precipitation and land use in the Great Plains through the end of the 21 st century. We conducted two six-month greenhouse experiments mimicking field conditions using intact mesocosms collected from playas in Nebraska and Texas. In the precipitation experiment, treatments derived from historical precipitation observations and three future moderate emissions (CMIP5 RCP4.5) downscaled climate projections were applied to mesocosms. For the land use experiment, treatments were simulated by nitrogen (N) applications to soil ranging from 0 to 100 mg-N L -1 with each precipitation event under historical rainfall patterns, representing increasing and decreasing area in agricultural use in playa watersheds. Plant communities tended to shift toward more native species under projected future climate conditions, but as N runoff increased, native species richness decreased. Agricultural land-use surrounding playas may have a greater effect on wetland plant communities than future alterations to hydrology based on climate change in the Great Plains; thus, efforts to reduce nutrient runoff into playas would likely mitigate loss in ecosystem function in the coming decades.

Nebraska, Texas↗

USGS2020

Post-fire aspen (Populus tremuloides) regeneration varies in response to winter precipitation across a regional climate gradient

Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broad North American range. As a relatively drought intolerant species, projected changes of altered precipitation timing, amount, and type (e.g. snow or rain) may influence aspen response to fire, especially in moisture-limited and winter precipitation-dominated portions of its range. Aspen is generally considered an early-seral species that benefits from fire, but increases in fire activity across much of the western United States could affect the species in unpredictable ways. This study examined post-fire aspen stands across a regional climate gradient spanning from the north-central Great Basin to the northeastern portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (USA). We investigated the influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variables, snowpack, and site conditions (e.g. browsing levels, topography) on density of post-fire aspen regeneration (i.e. all small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (i.e. small trees ≥2 m tall ha −1 ) across 15 fires that occurred between 2000 and 2009. The range of post-fire regeneration (2500–71,600 small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (0–32,500 small trees ≥2 m ha −1 ) densities varied widely across plots. Linear mixed effects models demonstrated that both response variables increased primarily with early winter (Oct-Dec) precipitation during the ‘fire-regen period’ (i.e., fire year and five years after fire) relative to the 30-year mean. The 30-year mean of early winter precipitation and fire-regen period snowpack were also positively related to recruitment densities. Both response variables decreased with higher shrub cover, highlighting the importance of considering shrub competition in post-fire environments. Regeneration and recruitment densities were negatively related to proportion browsed aspen leaders and animal pellet densities (no./m 2 ), respectively, indicating the influence of ungulate browsing even at the relatively low levels observed across sites. A post-hoc exploratory analysis suggests that deviation in early winter precipitation during the fire-regen period (relative to 30-year means) varied among sites along directional gradients, emphasizing the need to consider multiple spatiotemporal scales when investigating climate effects on post-fire successional dynamics. We discuss our findings in terms of dynamic management and conservation strategies in light of changing fire regimes and climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2022

Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum ) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to understand the ecological and demographic mechanisms that underlie ongoing and predicted range shifts. We use nearly four decades of demographic monitoring for this threatened Hawaiian species, in combination with other biological, ecological and climate data to explore demographic responses across its entire range. We construct and independently validate population models for two elevation zones representing the species’ lower trailing and higher stable regions. Differences in population growth rate (lambda) between trailing and stable regions were influenced most strongly by lower survival of juvenile and small adult size classes, as well as by lower recruitment and lower survival of seedlings and large adults in the trailing region. Furthermore, seed production appears to have decreased from the 1980’s to present in the trailing region, and is now significantly less than in the stable region. Lambda and several underlying vital rates were significantly associated with wetter dry season conditions in the lower trailing region, indicating water limitation. In the higher elevation stable region, in contrast, lambda and vital rates were associated with warmer air temperatures, indicating cold limitation. These contrasting demographic patterns and climate dependencies lead to a high probability of extinction over the next century in the lower region, where most plants occur, but zero probability of the same in the higher region, according to stochastic population projections. Drier future scenarios further increase the probability of extinction at low elevations. The combined results illustrate the complexity in the demographic response and future viability that can occur across the range of a single species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗