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Integrating habitat suitability and climate constraints to predict nonnative fish invasion risk for U.S. streams and inland lakes

Introduction: Nonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment. Methods: In this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions. Results: Florida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ) showing particularly high invasion potential. Discussion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

conterminous United States

Groundwater quality near the Placerita Oil Field, California, 2018

Groundwater-quality data and potential fluid-migration pathways near the Placerita Oil Field in Los Angeles County, California, were examined by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine if oil-field fluids (water and gas from oil-producing and non-producing zones) have mixed with groundwater resources. Six of the 13 new groundwater samples collected for this study contained petroleum hydrocarbons, thermogenic gas, inorganic chemical signatures, and (or) isotopic values consistent with potential mixing with fluids from hydrocarbon-bearing formations. For historical groundwater samples, benzene was the most detected petroleum hydrocarbon. The historical groundwater samples with a benzene concentration greater than 0.5 micrograms per liter were from environmental monitoring wells at industrial or commercial facilities unrelated to oil and gas development that, in many cases, have identified soil or groundwater contamination and were not typically analyzed for other constituents that could provide additional lines of evidence for potential mixing with oil-field fluids. Methane was not detected in any of the 12 historical samples with a reported measurement. Reviewing historical data revealed factors that could potentially adversely affect groundwater quality in the study area. These factors include modified hydraulic gradients caused by large volumes of water extracted from the main production area and reinjected downgradient into nonproducing zones, well-barrier failures in wells constructed in the northern part of the oil field before the 1970s, well-barrier failures in produced-water disposal wells downgradient from the main production area, and naturally occurring hydrocarbons at shallow intervals. The groundwater samples most geochemically similar to samples from hydrocarbon-bearing formations were in areas where hydrocarbons are naturally occurring at shallow intervals and where oil development is at shallow depths. Additional data for hydraulic heads, water quality, and formation temperatures at multiple depths in areas with large injection volumes and well-integrity issues are needed to evaluate whether those factors have contributed to mixing between fluids from oil-producing or injection formations and groundwater resources.

California

Formation of vertical columnar seismic structures and seafloor depressions by groundwater discharge in the drowned Miami Terrace platform and overlying deep-water carbonates, southeastern Florida

The presence of vertical cross-formational fluid migration passageways within sedimentary basins can profoundly impact aquifer and reservoir fluid-flow and their identification is fundamental to informing management of subsurface fluid resources (groundwater, oil, gas). In an onshore and offshore southeastern part of Florida, 2D/3D seismic-reflection and bathymetry data document ∼153 vertical columnar structures composed of reflection disruptions up to 790 m in the height and averaging 360 m in diameter, and ∼219 subcircular to circular seafloor depressions up to 1334 m wide. Our study focuses on these features found within the offshore shallow-marine carbonate Miami Terrace platform, which drowned approximately at the end of the middle Miocene, and within overlying Plio-Quaternary deep-water carbonate slope and drift deposits. Most columnar structures are rooted in stratiform aquifers of the Miami Terrace platform and associated with faults or fault intersections produced by Eocene and circa late Miocene tectonics. The columns commonly terminate within the platform or as subcircular depressions along an amalgamated karstic and drowning unconformity at the platform top. The columns typically stretch upwards from a zone of deep karst cavity collapse through the Miami Terrace platform with upward decreasing sag on internal reflections. Following drowning and Plio-Quaternary partial burial of the Miami Terrace platform by deep-water deposits, the subcircular depressions and faults along the platform top were points of origin for a second phase of column growth upward into the deep-water deposits. The continuation of deep platform cavity collapse and column evolution produced pockmarks along paleo-seafloors within the deep-water deposits and at the present-day sea floor. The Plio-Quaternary pockmarks formed at water depths too deep to suggest an origin related to meteoric karst above or near sea level, but rather their formation is suggested to be related to cyclic sea level falls that drove increased groundwater head and density gradients, and seafloor discharge of offshore freshened groundwater sourced from the underlying platform. Plausibly, mixing of freshened groundwater and seawater at the seafloor discharge sites drove dissolution of the host deep-water deposits, which together with erosion by groundwater venting and current scouring formed the pockmarks. Seaward of the Plio-Quaternary seafloor pockmarks, at the late-middle Miocene upper slope of the Miami Terrace platform and along the regional karst/drowning unconformity is a slope-parallel band of ∼189 densely distributed subcircular seafloor depressions with diameters up to 1334 m at water depths up to ∼660 m. It is plausible that along the upper slope, faults and fractures produced by gravity-driven slope instability and possibly tectonics formed a dense network of fluid passageways that promoted upward artesian freshened groundwater flow to sites of discharge where mixing with seawater generated limestone dissolution and the depressions. But tectonic uplift may have forced emersion and initial meteoric sinkhole formation circa late Miocene with later enhancement by freshened groundwater discharge and bottom current erosion.

Florida

Horizontal transport of Picture Gorge Basalt magma through the Monument Dike Swarm determined by magnetic fabric

Flood basalts of the mid-Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) cover 210,000 km 2 of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The source of CRBG melt is debated; widely spaced feeder dike swarms can be projected toward hypothetical sources near the Oregon-Idaho border. In this study, we use anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) to track magma flow in the Monument dike swarm (MDS), the feeder dikes of the Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB). This small formation of the main-phase CRBG eruptions allows us to explore in detail the localized dynamics of a large igneous province feeder system, with implications for the larger CRBG picture. We measured the magnetic fabric of 205 oriented paleomagnetic specimens subsampled from 97 samples collected from 15 dikes of the MDS. Thermal demagnetization and hysteresis loops show that the magnetic minerals are a mixture of single domain and multidomain sized titanomagnetites. At three dikes, the paleodepth of sampling was determined to be shallow (<350 m). Magma flowing through dikes has been shown—in most cases— to acquire an anisotropic magnetic fabric with an AMS ellipsoid minimum axis perpendicular to the wall and maximum axis aligned in the direction of flow. Of 15 dikes, 12 show horizontal flow directions in the plane of the dike. Only one dike displayed imbricated fabrics, showing westward flow away from the Oregon-Idaho border. We conclude that magma flow in the MDS was sub-horizontal from a distal source.

Oregon

Geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within parts of Bandera and Kendall Counties, Texas

The karstic Edwards and Trinity aquifers are classified as major sources of water in south-central Texas by the Texas Water Development Board. During 2019–23 the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority, mapped and described the geology and hydrostratigraphy of the rocks composing the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within parts of Bandera and Kendall Counties from field observations of the surficial expressions of the rocks. The thicknesses of the mapped lithostratigraphic and hydrostratigraphic units were also estimated from field observations in the study area. The Cretaceous rocks in the study area are part of the Trinity Group and Edwards Group. The groups, formations, and members are composed primarily of layers of marls, shales, and limestones. The limestones are composed of mudstone through grainstone, framestone and boundstone, dolomite, and argillaceous and evaporitic rocks. The principal structural feature in the study area is the Balcones fault zone. The Balcones fault zone is the result of late Oligocene and early Miocene extensional faulting and fracturing that was a result of the eastern Edwards Plateau uplift. In the Balcones fault zone, most of the faults in the study area are high-angle to vertical, en echelon, normal faults that are predominantly downthrown to the southeast. Hydrostratigraphically, the rocks exposed in the study area are those that contain the Edwards aquifer, the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer, and the middle zone of the Trinity aquifer. Descriptions of the hydrostratigraphic units, thicknesses, hydrologic function, porosity types, and field identification and observations are provided, including those for the informal Bandera and Love Creek hydrostratigraphic units of the Edwards aquifer, which were identified through the mapping for this study.

Texas

Fiber-optic sensing for earthquake hazards research, monitoring and early warning

The use of fiber‐optic sensing systems in seismology has exploded in the past decade. Despite an ever‐growing library of ground‐breaking studies, questions remain about the potential of fiber‐optic sensing technologies as tools for advancing if not revolutionizing earthquake‐hazards‐related research, monitoring, and early warning systems. A working group convened to explore these topics; we comprehensively examined the application of fiber optics in various aspects of earthquake hazards, encompassing earthquake source processes, crustal imaging, data archiving, and technological challenges. There is great potential for fiber‐optic systems to advance earthquake monitoring and understanding, but to fully unlock their capabilities requires continued progress in key areas of research and development, including instrument testing and validation, increased dynamic range for applications focused on larger earthquakes, and continued improvement in subsurface and source imaging methods. A key current stumbling block results from the lack of clear data archiving requirements, and we propose an initial strategy that balances data volume requirements with preserving key data for a broad range of future studies. In addition, we demonstrate the potential for fiber‐optic sensing to impact monitoring efforts by documenting the data completeness in a number of long‐term experiments. Finally, we outline the features of a instrument testing facility that would enable progress toward reliable and standardized distributed acoustic sensing data. Overcoming these current obstacles would facilitate progress in fiber‐optic sensing and unlock its potential application to a broad range of earthquake hazard problems.

California, Oregon, Washington

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Rhode Island’s economy

Introduction High-resolution elevation data are critical to applications of landscape modeling and planning, both of which have a significant effect on Rhode Island’s economy. In these and other enterprises, program managers, while aiming to strike a balance between accuracy and cost, strive to obtain the best available elevation data to help them address a range of issues. Programs focused on climate change, environmental management, transportation design and asset management, aviation navigation and safety, riverine ecosystem management, wildlife habitat characterization and management, shellfish aquaculture, and the management and mapping of forests, parks and recreation areas, soils, wetlands, and impervious surfaces are also among the critical applications that meet the State’s management needs and depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Rhode Island. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Rhode Island is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 ( https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec ) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $178,560 in new benefits annually to the State. The top 10 Rhode Island business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Rhode Island

A time-space model of graphite mineral systems

Increasing demand for graphite in energy storage systems warrants review of graphite ore genesis in a mineral systems framework. Orogenic graphite encompasses the metamorphic and orogenic mineral systems that produce flake graphite and hydrothermal vein (lump and chip) graphite deposits, respectively. A common feature of orogenic graphite deposits is an association with upper amphibolite- to granulite-facies metasedimentary rocks in continent-continent or continent-island arc collisional orogens. Orogenic flake graphite deposits form primarily through graphitization of organic carbon during regional metamorphism, but strain localization and partial melting of pelitic protoliths are likely important processes for graphite grade and quality enrichment. Orogenic vein graphite deposits precipitate from hydrothermal fluids, possibly derived from metamorphism or anatexis at depth. Decarbonation reactions in mixed calcareous-carbonaceous metasedimentary sequences are the most likely carbon sources for the veins. In contrast, intrusion-related graphite includes magmatic-hydrothermal and metamorphic mineral systems that form primarily in continental arc settings via the interaction of magmas with carbonaceous sedimentary packages. Magmatic-hydrothermal flake graphite deposits are hosted in plutonic and volcanic rocks, and result from the exsolution of CO 2 -CH 4 -rich fluids from melts contaminated by such packages. Contact metamorphism of carbonaceous sedimentary rocks by plutons produces some microcrystalline (amorphous) graphite deposits, including many in China. Compilation of geologic data from known graphite deposits globally suggests that pulses of carbon deposition in the Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic provided source carbon material. Subsequent supercontinent orogenesis at ca. 2,100 to 1,700 Ma (Columbia), ca. 1,300 to 1,000 Ma (Rodinia), and ca. 650 to 500 Ma (Gondwana) resulted in the genesis of orogenic flake and vein graphite deposits, where favorable geologic components overlapped with organic ± carbonate carbon-rich strata. Cryogenian deposition of graphite protoliths and Cryogenian – Cambrian metamorphic mineralization account for nearly 75% of all known resources globally and coincide with profound carbon isotope excursions and climate variability, implying a link with the global carbon budget. Comparatively few graphite deposits are associated with Pangea-forming orogens, attributed to less exhumation and/or denudation. High-temperature metasedimentary belts containing organic carbon-rich protoliths are most favorable for hosting orogenic flake graphite deposits, whereas sequences that also contain carbonate protoliths are favorable for orogenic graphite veins. Continent-scale orogenic belts may host both deposit types along with vanadium deposits. Use of a time-space mineral systems framework for graphite deposits can improve exploration models needed to ensure future supply of this critical mineral and provide insights into Earth’s long-term carbon cycle.

Mineralium Deposita

Assessing potential effects of oil and gas development activities on groundwater quality near and overlying the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields, San Joaquin Valley, California

Groundwater resources are utilized near areas of intensive oil and gas development in California’s San Joaquin Valley. In this study, we examined chemical and isotopic data to assess if thermogenic gas or saline water from oil producing formations have mixed with groundwater near the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley. Major ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions were largely consistent with natural processes, including mixing of different recharge sources and water-rock interactions. Trace methane concentrations likely resulted from microbial rather than thermogenic sources. Trace concentrations of benzene and other dissolved hydrocarbons in three wells had uncertain sources that could occur naturally or be derived from oil and gas development activities or other anthropogenic sources. In the mid-1990s, two industrial supply wells had increasing Cl and B concentrations likely explained by mixing with up to 15 percent saline oil-field water injected for disposal in nearby injection disposal wells. Shallow groundwater along the western margin of Buena Vista Lake Bed had elevated Cl, B, and SO 4 concentrations that could be explained by accumulation of salts during natural wetting and drying cycles or, alternatively, legacy surface disposal of saline oil-field water in upgradient ephemeral drainages. This study showed that groundwater had relatively little evidence of thermogenic gas or saline water from oil and gas sources in most parts of the study area. However, the evidence for groundwater mixing with injected disposal water, and possibly legacy surface disposal water, demonstrates produced water management practices as a potential risk factor for groundwater-quality degradation near oil and gas fields. Additional studies in the San Joaquin Valley and elsewhere could improve understanding of such risks by assessing the locations, volumes, and types of produced water disposal practices used during the life of oil fields.

California

Transport and dispersion of fluorescent tracer particles for the dune-bed condition, Atrisco Feeder Canal near Bernalillo, New Mexico

A tracer technique in which mineral particles were coated with fluorescent dyes was used to study the rates of transport and dispersion of sediment particles`of various diameters and specific gravities for a dune-bed condition in an alluvial channel. The experiment was conducted in the Atrisco Feeder Canal near Bernalillo, N. Mex., between May 1 and July 14, 1967. A continuous point source of tracers, approximated by injections at 5- or 10-minute intervals, was maintained for 7 days so that the steady-dilution procedure could be used to calculate the transport rate of bed material. After termination of the injection process, the spatial-integration procedure was used to follow the movement of the tracers downstream and to calculate the transport rate. Samples of the bed material in transport and the accompanying tracers moving along the surface of the dune bed were obtained periodically throughout the study with the "dustpan" sampler especially designed for fluorescent tracer studies. In addition, the spatial distributions of the tracers in the dune bed were determined three times during the study by core sampling.

New Mexico

Timing and geometry of the Chemehuevi Formation reveal a late Pleistocene sediment pulse into the Lower Colorado River

The Chemehuevi Formation is a distinctive 50−150-m-thick wedge-shaped Pleistocene sedimentary unit deposited by the Colorado River. It lines the perimeters of the river’s floodplains and bedrock canyons for more than 600 km between the mouth of the Grand Canyon and the delta region in the Gulf of California. The formation is composed of a basal tan to light-yellowish-brown and pale-orange mud-dominated facies overlain and interbedded by a light-yellow-brown sand-dominated facies. The unit is one of two extensively exposed aggradational packages in the Lower Colorado River corridor, in addition to a series of other smaller alluvial terrace deposits. The Chemehuevi Formation appears to represent the response of a fully integrated Colorado River system to a significant perturbation, in contrast to the Bullhead Alluvium, which is likely a unique result of Pliocene river integration. The aggradation of the Chemehuevi Formation in the Lower Colorado River corridor may be similarly due to a unique event in the Colorado River system, or it may instead be a well-preserved sedimentary sequence recording typical behavior of the Colorado River below the Grand Canyon in the late Pleistocene. As such, multiple causal mechanisms have been proposed, but no study to date has conclusively explained the Chemehuevi Formation. To help resolve its timing, duration, and origin, we applied post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence, carbonate U-Th series, and zircon sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe U-Th series geochronology to determine the ages of key exposures of the unit over a wide spatial area. These new data demonstrate that the Chemehuevi Formation was deposited ca. 110−90 ka. The depositional ages collectively overlap, suggesting that deposition occurred rapidly relative to the resolution of the geochronometers. The new depositional timing coincides with a shift from glacial to interglacial conditions after the marine isotope stage 5-6 transition. This observation is consistent with a climate-induced sediment pulse as a causal mechanism, yet correlations with similar deposits in the Colorado River headwaters or in neighboring catchments appear elusive. Potentially, climate transitions between glacial and interglacial periods induced a sediment pulse from hillslopes of the Colorado River system that resulted in the Chemehuevi Formation. An alternative or additional explanation is that the Chemehuevi Formation represents release of lava dam−impounded sediment in the Grand Canyon. The surface geometry of the Chemehuevi Formation projects upstream to the approximate location of lava dams, and the largest possible lava dam impoundment (the Upper Prospect dam) is comparable in volume to the formation. The lava dam hypothesis appears to be a possible explanation for the Chemehuevi Formation. However, tying deposition to a specific lava dam or series of lava dams remains challenging due to discrepancies in timing and volume. The combined effects of a series of lava dams may have led to the Chemehuevi Formation, as the last Pleistocene lava dam eruption coincides with the onset of deposition. Alternatively, the formation may result from the combined effects of both regional climate transitions and the lava dams that created a transient reservoir to compound a climate transition−driven sediment pulse. The geochronologic data presented here do not allow us to distinguish between the lava dam or climate transition hypotheses but will need to be reconciled with any future proposed depositional model.

Arizona, California, Nevada

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River near Kansas City, Missouri, August 8–9, 2023

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near 8 bridge crossings of the Missouri River near Kansas City, Missouri, on August 8–9, 2023. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches that extended about 1,550 to 1,640 feet longitudinally and generally extended laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low floodflow to nonflood conditions. These surveys provided the channel geometry and hydraulic conditions of the river at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes, which may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. The data collected from the surveys may also be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a record of low floodflow conditions in regards to the stability and integrity of the bridges with respect to bridge scour. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were at most piers where bathymetry could be obtained, except for those piers on banks or surrounded by riprap. All the bridge sites in this study were surveyed and documented in previous studies. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces ranged from 0.07 to 4.16 feet higher in 2023 than 2019, which indicates overall deposition between the survey dates, as might be expected based purely on streamflow at the time of the survey. However, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces ranged from 1.44 feet higher to 1.88 feet lower in 2023 than 2015, which indicates a dynamic equilibrium of scour and deposition overall between those surveys, despite the lower flow conditions in 2023. Similarly, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces ranged from 3.18 feet higher to 5.19 feet lower in 2023 than 2011, which indicates a relative equilibrium between scour and deposition overall, albeit the trend was toward scour as might be expected because of the substantial flood event in 2011. Riprap blankets and alignment to flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole for a given pier. Piers that were partially or fully surrounded by riprap blankets had scour holes that were substantially smaller (to nonexistent) compared to piers with no rock or riprap and effectively mitigated the scour holes historically observed at these piers. Several of the structures had piers that were skewed to primary approach flow. At most of the structures, the scour hole was deeper and longer on the side of the pier with impinging flow than the leeward side, with some amount of deposition on the leeward side, as typically observed at piers skewed to approach flow.

Kansas, Missouri

Hydrology and water and sediment quality at James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge near Kahuku, Island of Oahu, Hawaii

The James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge occupies two lowland marsh and pond complexes on the northern coastal plain of Oahu: the mostly natural ponds and wetlands of the Punamano Unit and the constructed ponds of the Kii Unit. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages the Refuge primarily to protect and enhance habitat for four endangered species of Hawaiian waterbirds. Kii Unit is fed by artesian wells and rainfall, whereas Punamano Unit is fed naturally by rainfall, runoff, and ground-water seepage. Streams drain from the uplands into lowland ditches that pass through Kii Unit on their way to the ocean. A high-capacity pump transfers water from the inner ditch terminus at Kii to the ocean outlet channel. Stormwaters also exit the inner ditch system over flood-relief swales near the outlet pump and through a culvert with a one-way valve. A hydrologic investigation was done from November 1996 through February 1998 to identify and quantify principal inflows and outflows of water to and from the Refuge, identify hydraulic factors affecting flooding, document ground-water/surface-water interactions, determine the adequacy of the current freshwater supply, and determine water and sediment quality. These goals were accomplished by installing and operating a network of stream-gaging stations, meteorology stations, and shallow ground-water piezometers, by computing water budgets for the two Refuge units, and by sampling and analyzing water and pond-bottom sediments for major ions, trace metals, and organic compounds. Streamflow during the study was dominated by winter stormflows, followed by a gradual recession of flow into summer 1997, as water that had been stored in alluvial fans drained to lowland ditches. Outflow at the ditch terminus in 1997 was 125 million gallons greater than measured inflow to the coastal plain, mainly reflecting gains from ground water along the ditches between outlying gages and the ditch terminus. Of the measured 1997 outflow, 98 percent was through the Kii outlet pump, with the outlet culvert valve only opening for brief periods during storms. Large volumes of stormflow overflowed the flood-relief swales unmeasured. The largest storm of the study, in November 1996, was estimated to have a flood frequency of about 3 to 4 years. Streamflow exceeded culvert capacity and overtopped Kamehameha Highway at Kalaeokahipa Stream and Hospital ditch. Slight overbank flooding in Kii ditch resulted strictly from high discharge. Minor overbank flooding farther out on the coastal plain probably was caused mainly by the small hydraulic gradients available to convey stormflows along the lowland ditches. Stormwaters flooded Kii ponds and flowed back upstream along Punamano ditch into Punamano marsh, introducing suspended sediment and possibly other contaminants to the Refuge. Two smaller storms in January 1997 resulted in smaller flows and no overbank flooding. The Kii outlet pump ran continuously for 7 days during the November 1996 storm and for 1 to 2 days during the January 1997 storms. During all three storms, the outlet culvert valve opened and the inner ditches overtopped the flood-relief swales, allowing free outflow of water from the inner ditch. Backwater effects hindered drainage during the January 1997 storms at Hospital ditch at Kamehameha Highway, and at Punamano ditch at Nudist Camp Road (where the backflow into Punamano marsh in November 1996 constituted an extreme backwater effect). A probable marine backwater effect was imposed at the ocean outlet ditch during the November 1996 storm through a combination of high spring tides and wave setup from large surf. Whether this backwater effect propagated upstream in the ditches to affect inland sites could not be determined conclusively. A sand plug may have built up in the ocean outlet channel before the November 1996 storm, but if so, it probably washed out prior to, or early in the storm, and was not present at the time of peak stage at inland sites. A season-long buildup of the sand plug in late 1997 was inferred from rising water levels in the outlet ditch. Seawater flows up the outlet channel or over the sand berm and into the outer ditch system on most high tides, and particularly during spring high tides. Ponds and ditches of the Refuge and surrounding lowlands have mud- and clay-lined bottoms that form an effective confining unit and inhibit interaction with an underlying shallow limestone aquifer. At Kii Unit, pond levels are higher than adjacent ditch levels and underlying ground-water levels, establishing lateral and downward head gradients that could foster seepage losses from the ponds. Regional ground-water discharge from the Koolau aquifer to the coastal-plain sediments is mostly diffuse, but is concentrated where ridges of Koolau Basalt plunge beneath coastal-plain sediments near Punamano Unit and at the head of Hospital ditch. Kii ditch gains brackish ground water downstream of Kamehameha Highway. Wastewater disposal from the sewage treatment plant adjoining Kii Unit poses little or no threat to Refuge habitat. Disposal is at six injection wells located 0.45 mi away at Kahuku, and the wells inject into confined limestone aquifers that do not extend to Kii Unit. The natural freshwater supply to Punamano Unit is adequate for maintaining the wildlife habitat, judging from stable pond levels and low salinities there. A monthly water budget for Punamano showed an apparent annual deficit in measurable flows in 1997, requiring unmeasured ground-water gains equalling 51 inches of water. The freshwater supply to Kii Unit is inadequate according to Refuge managers, because there is not enough water to manipulate levels adequately in the ponds during most of the year, and particularly during the driest months. This is confirmed by monthly deficits in the water budget for the Kii ponds during summer months. However, the Kii budget showed an annual surplus in measurable flows for 1997 equalling 24 inches of water. Unmeasured losses are required to explain the apparent annual surplus, such as discharge to the ditches through pond water-control structures and downward and/or lateral ground-water seepage. The apparent surplus at Kii is strictly hydrologic and is not a surplus in a management sense; it cannot be stored or used to supply the Refuge, but instead reflects losses from the system that render this amount of water unavailable for use. The budget year, 1997, was drier than normal (24 percent below long-term mean rainfall) and so the measured potential evaporation for 1997 was probably higher than the long-term mean. Few metals or organic compounds of potential concern were detected in pond and ditch waters and in pond-bottom sediments. Detected pesticides were at trace levels or just above minimum reporting limits. Exceptions that exceeded quality guidelines for freshwater sediment were copper and zinc in sediment from Kii ponds C and D, and copper in sediment from Punamano north pond. Therefore, urban and agricultural runoff probably have contributed little in the way of harmful metals or organic compounds to the Refuge, although the potential for such contribution remains from periodic flooding of the ponds by ditch stormflows. Salinity was low throughout most Refuge waters, qualifying as fresh to slightly brackish and suitable for the environmental needs of Refuge fauna. Higher salinities have been observed in ditches during past periods of sugarcane cultivation and saltwater aquaculture, however. Resumption of saltwater aquaculture could raise ditch salinities if saltwater effluents are disposed directly into the ditches, as they were in the past.

Hawaii

Evaluating the U.S. Geological Survey’s earthquake shaking hazard forecasts and their implications on seismic risk

We analyze the last six update cycles of the long-term probabilistic earthquake shaking hazard forecast from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and discuss the changes in hazard estimates from the 1996 to the latest 2023 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. We summarize how our understanding of earthquake hazards has evolved over the last two decades and quantify the implications of changing hazards on people, buildings, and lifeline infrastructure. The net effect of changes in hazard estimates, with reference to the mean hazard from the 2023 NSHM update that has 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, suggests an overall increase in total geographic areas facing very strong shaking levels (modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of VII or more) when compared with any of the previous cycles. This increase puts ~159.2 million people (an increase from 111.8 million when using the 2018 NSHM), ~47.3 million residential buildings (an increase from 32.5 million with the 2018 NSHM), and ~$25.6 trillion of economic exposure of all buildings (an increase from $17.4 trillion when using the 2018 NSHM) at risk from earthquakes. We demonstrate that small changes in hazard estimates do not necessarily imply small changes in risk estimates. Therefore, changes in risk estimates can be used to highlight key USGS NSHM updates for improving risk mitigation efforts.

Earthquake Spectra Journal

Indirect mineral import reliance and provenance

Mineral commodity supply chain analyses rely on international trade data reported by individual countries as quantities of a mineral commodity form imported from (or exported to) a partner. However, export quantities frequently exceed a country’s domestic production, or occur when no production data are reported, suggesting that the trade partner is merely an intermediary in a transshipment. These discrepancies can result in misleading conclusions regarding supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies. We present a two-stage methodology to reconcile gaps between reported material sources and actual producers. First, we construct trade networks for specific mineral forms, treating production as a type of import to distinguish producing nations from entrepôts. By tracing flows through these networks, we attribute a target country’s imports to original producers via both direct (in a single trade link) and indirect (transferring through intermediaries) pathways. Second, these production-attributed flows are incorporated into multi-stage supply chains to determine the upstream provenance of feedstock for domestic refining and processing. This approach provides a more representative picture of trade reliance. For example, while the United States (U.S.) Geological Survey reports no imports of unwrought antimony metal from Russia in 2022 (U.S. Geological Survey (2025). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. 10.3133/mcs2025), our analysis reveals that over 16% of U.S. imports can be traced back to Russian mining through intermediate processing in countries such as China, India, and Vietnam. Additionally, our analysis of the aluminum supply chain shows that while the U.S. is reported as 52% net import reliant on aluminum materials in 2022, it is 100% reliant on foreign bauxite, 7% of which arrived indirectly. This unreported reliance, which is predominantly tied to bauxite mined in Brazil (43%) and Jamaica (28%), highlights our methods ability to capture the supply chain’s dependence on foreign feedstock that may be missing in single-stage trade data.

Mineral Economics

Temperature

The “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) provides guidelines and procedures for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel who collect data used to assess the quality of the Nation’s surface-water and groundwater resources. This chapter, NFM A6.1, provides guidance and protocols for the measurement of temperature of air, of a surface-water body or in groundwater, which include the scientific basis of the measurement, selection and maintenance of equipment, calibration verification, troubleshooting, and procedures for measurement and reporting. It updates and supersedes USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 9, chapter A6.1, version 2.0, by Franceska D. Wilde. Temperature of air and water is routinely measured when water samples are collected, is often measured continually at USGS streamgages, and is a parameter regularly measured during laboratory and field experiments. The field method for measuring temperature described in this chapter is applicable to air and most natural waters. Before 2017, the NFM chapters were released in the USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations series. Effective in 2018, new and revised NFM chapters are being released in the USGS Techniques and Methods series; this series change does not affect the content and format of the NFM. More information is in the general introduction to the NFM (USGS Techniques and Methods, book 9, chapter A0) at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm9A0 . The authoritative current versions of NFM chapters are available in the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/ . Comments, questions, and suggestions related to the NFM can be addressed to nfm@usgs.gov .

Techniques and Methods

Characteristics of the fault damage zone From high-resolution seismic imaging along the Palos Verdes Fault, California

The distribution and intensity of fault damage zones provides insight into fault activity and its relationship to fluid flow in the crust. Presently, measures of the in-situ distribution of fault damage remain limited and along-strike studies are rare. This study focuses on an offshore section Palos Verdes Fault damage zone that spans 28 km, near Los Angeles, California. To investigate the previously unresolved shallow (∼400 m below the seafloor) fault damage zone we use densely spaced (∼500 m line separation) newly collected sparker multichannel seismic lines and sub-bottom profiles. The combination of high-resolution acquisition methods and specialized seismic processing workflows provide improved imaging of shallow faulting. We apply a multi-trace similarity technique to identify discontinuities in the seismic data that may be attributed to faults and fractures. This fault detection approach reveals diverse fault damage patterns on adjacent seismic profiles. However, a discernible damage zone pattern emerges by stacking multiple damage detection profiles along strike. We find that peak damage identified in this way corresponds to the active main fault strand, confirmed in this study, and thus the technique may be useful for identifying active fault strands elsewhere. Additionally, we observe that the variable width of the damage zone along strike is controlled by fault obliquity. Furthermore, our observations reveal a correlation between fault damage and seafloor fluid seeps visible in the water column, suggesting that damage plays a role in controlling fluid flow around the fault.

California

Melt generation sources and conditions in the wake of a migrating slab window: Geochemistry and petrology of the million-year history of primitive volcanism at Clear Lake volcanic field, California

Clear Lake volcanic field (CLVF) is the northernmost and youngest (~2.2 Ma to 8 ka) of the volcanic centers distributed along the San Andreas transform fault in western California. The initial phase of CLVF volcanism (interval one) occurred between ~2.2 and 1.3 Ma and extends ~35 km southeast of Clear Lake, forming a semi-continuous upland plateau capped by lava flows, with isolated volcanic remnants on the periphery. This volcanism is broadly characterized by geochemically primitive compositions that reflect three source compositions and conditions of melt generation. (1) Partial melting of upwelling asthenospheric mantle lherzolite at moderate pressures (1.2–1.4 GPa) and temperatures (1297–1329 °C) produced high-CaO (9.8–11.3 wt %) basalts with high Al 2 O 3 (16.8–17.6 wt %), Mg#s (66–70), MgO (8–10 wt %), Ni (103–262 μg/g), and Cr (284–609 μg/g). These high-CaO basalts contain olivine (Fo 87–91 ) phenocrysts with Cr-spinel inclusions ± subordinate plagioclase and crop out only in the southern part of the CLVF. (2) Partial melting of depleted sub-continental lithospheric mantle harzburgite at variable pressures (0.7–1.5 GPa) and temperatures (1097–1299 °C) produced a compositional continuum of med-K 2 O, calc-alkaline, high-MgO basalts through high-MgO andesites with high Mg#s (67–77), MgO (8–14 wt %) and high Ni and Cr abundances (154–439 and 340–1124 μg/g, respectively). Mineral assemblages are olivine (Fo 88–93 ) with Cr-spinel inclusions ± subordinate clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and plagioclase. Small (<2.5 cm) mantle harzburgite xenoliths and mantle olivine xenocrysts are also found in several of these samples. These high-MgO basalts through andesites represent the largest volume of primitive compositions and have erupted predominantly along the main, fault-controlled northwest-southeast trending axis of volcanism with peripheral outcrops to the north, west, and east. (3) Partial melting of the Gorda eclogite slab edge produced adakitic silicic slab melts with strong depletion in the heavy rare earth elements (Yb = 0.6 μg/g). Subsequent reaction of those melts with depleted ultramafic rocks during ascent imprinted the adakitic dacites with high Mg#s (65–78) and elevated Ni (117–210 μg/g) and Cr (191–283 μg/g). Phenocrysts of orthopyroxene (En 87–94 ) with spinel inclusions (Cr# = 80–88) and extremely Ni-rich (9483 μg/g) olivine cores (Fo 84–93 ) record those reactions. Small-volume outcrops of the adakites on the eastern periphery of the CLVF track the passing slab edge. The trio of melting sources recorded by early CLVF magmatism reflect the tectonically complex environment and the hot (1097–1329 °C), shallow (0.7–1.5 GPa) melting conditions for these primitive compositions and provide estimates of the heat delivered to the crust. Over time, this flux led to maturation of the CLVF magmatic system toward the more voluminous and silicic volcanism that characterizes the balance of its subsequent volcanic history and maintains the present-day anomalously high heat flow in the region. The current interval (interval four) of volcanic activity at CLVF is characterized by low-volume, fault-controlled eruptions of basaltic andesite and andesite suggestive of mantle magma and heat delivery to the crust, similar to interval one. This analogous activity provides motivation for the current study and begs the question of whether the system is undergoing thermal priming for renewed silicic volcanism.

California