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Diverging mineral chemistry of iron and nickel throughout Earth’s changing redox conditions reveals foundation for their evolution as protein cofactors

Iron (Fe) and nickel (Ni) were both foundational to early metabolism, yet their biological trajectories diverged as Earth’s surface redox state changed. Here, we integrate mineral chemistry network analysis, protein metal-site coordination-sphere analysis, and curated redox comparisons to test how geochemistry and metalloprotein architecture co-evolved. Mineral network analyses show broader electronegativity variation and network diversity for Fe-bearing minerals through time relative to Ni-bearing minerals. In structural analyses of protein metal centers in a combined Fe/Ni protein structure set, it is shown that Fe- and Ni-associated environments differ in amino-acid composition, hydropathy structure, and cysteine representation. The greater chemical diversity and electronegativity variation in Fe minerals mirror the higher redox and structural versatility of Fe-binding proteins. The presence of Fe in a broader range of mineral and protein environments demonstrates the chemical adaptability of the metal, from the anoxic Archean to oxidative Earth surface conditions following the Great Oxidation Event. Iron, with its broad redox potential range in Fe-oxidoreductases, has a central role in both anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms. Nickel, by contrast, is less widespread in biology. Today, Ni is predominantly employed in deeply branching anaerobic pathways and by proteins with narrower redox potential ranges. Our results show that evolutionary processes, constrained by metal chemistry, habitually utilize Fe as a redox generalist while retaining Ni in specialized roles. The divergent paths of Ni and Fe, from rocks to proteins, demonstrate the intimate relationship between planetary geochemistry and metabolic origins on Earth and suggest that Fe/Ni geochemistry may inform habitability assessments in extraterrestrial environments when interpreted within specific planetary environmental contexts.

Life

Background and geologic model for the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered conventional petroleum resources in the Norphlet Formation, U.S. Gulf Coast

The Upper Jurassic Norphlet Formation is a stratigraphic unit located in the subsurface of the United States Gulf coastal plain and offshore Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). The Norphlet consists of clastic sediments derived from the southern Appalachian highlands, and was deposited in a continental dryland setting on the margins of the early Gulf of America rift basin. The formation contains a variety of sedimentary facies, including facies representing updip alluvial fans, wadis, red beds, and a widespread erg, or eolian sand sea. The erg facies form the primary reservoirs from which hydrocarbons sourced from the overlying Smackover Formation are produced. Development of the Norphlet began in earnest in the late 1960s, with new discoveries, including large fields at Flomaton, Hatters Pond, and Mobile Bay, continuing through the 2000s–2010s with the discovery of major oil fields in the offshore Desoto Canyon area. Onshore, Norphlet hydrocarbon traps typically are faulted salt anticlines, although many fields also have a stratigraphic trapping component because of the preservation of dune-scale bedforms. Thermal maturity across the Norphlet play varies significantly with depth, resulting in oil production transitioning downdip to natural gas liquids production, then dry gas production; production depths reach to greater than 21,000 feet. A 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment divided the Norphlet into four conventional assessment units defined by the type and frequency of trapping mechanisms, sedimentology, and thermal maturity of each area, with little potential for hydrocarbon development observed west of the Mississippi River. Although petroleum resources in the Norphlet were revised downward, it is probable that significant resources remain to be discovered.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi

To heal or not to heal?: 2. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence is consistent with laboratory healing rates

The timing and failure conditions of an earthquake are governed by the interplay between fault reloading and restrengthening. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates; however, it is difficult to link these observed healing rates to laboratory studies of frictional healing in part because of uncertainty in lithology. Here, we study the 2011 Prague earthquake sequence, which includes repeating earthquakes in the Arbuckle group and the granitic basement, and compare them to laboratory experiments on samples of the Arbuckle and Troy granite (representative of the basement rock) (Okamoto et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030573 ). We find three spatially distinct groups of repeating earthquakes with different moment-recurrence behavior: (a) constant moment-recurrence time in the Arbuckle group, (b) scattered moment-recurrence time at the intersection of the foreshock-mainshock fault in the granitic basement, and (c) moment-predictable behavior outside of the foreshock-mainshock fault intersection also in the granitic basement. Our observation of stagnant healing for repeating sequences in the Arbuckle group is consistent with laboratory observations of low healing rates for moderately high pore fluid pressures in Arbuckle samples. For the moment-predictable group, the source radius that is required in order to match healing rates is consistent with source radius estimations when taking into account reasonable attenuation of the P- pulse width. Overall, we observe diverse healing behaviors in the seismic families that are consistent with laboratory healing rates, providing seismic evidence that contact-scale frictional mechanisms are relevant to large-scale earthquake dynamics.

Oklahoma

Earthquake-triggered ground-failure inventory associated with the M7.1 2018 Southcentral Alaska earthquake

The 30 November 2018, magnitude (Mw) 7.1 earthquake in Southcentral Alaska triggered substantial landslides, liquefaction, and ground cracking throughout the region, resulting in widespread geotechnical damage to buildings and infrastructure. Despite a challenging reconnaissance and remote-sensing environment, we constructed a detailed digital inventory of ground failure associated with the event from several sources. Sources included information derived from remotely sensed data, and data compiled from literature, social media postings, and earthquake damage information compiled by local, state, and federal agencies. Each instance of ground failure within the inventory contains information on the location and type of observed ground failure, and the methods and data used to document the occurrence. Where high-quality data, such as LIDAR or satellite imagery, were available and showed the ground-failure instance clearly, the extent is mapped as a polygon or polyline. All other locations are mapped as points. There are a total of 886 ground-failure instances documented within the inventory (400 landslides, 286 liquefaction features, and 200 features unattributed to specific processes). A semi-quantitative confidence scheme is used to describe mapping certainty associated with each ground-failure feature. This inventory represents a relatively moderate ground-failure-triggering event that occurred in a subarctic environment. This data paper describes the content within the inventory, the inventory data collection procedures, and limitations of the data. Events of this type are not often documented in detail; thus, adding the inventory data to the US Geological Survey Open Repository of Earthquake-Triggered Ground-Failure Inventories further diversifies the datasets available to the scientific community to be used to better understand and model earthquake-triggered ground failure.

Alaska

Syn-magmatic subsidence during the early stages of continental rifting in the Mesoproterozoic—A reanalysis of legacy data for the Midcontinent Rift, western Lake Superior

The Midcontinent Rift system (ca. 1.1 Ga) is a 2000-km-long series of elongated volcanic and sedimentary troughs and associated intrusive centers exposed chiefly in the Lake Superior region of North America. The rift system represents a long history of intense magmatism and subsequent sedimentation that was arrested by far-field tectonic events before sea-floor spreading was established. The premature cessation preserved a record of processes related to the beginning of continental rifting. The rift system under Lake Superior has been long studied using seismic-reflection data collected as part of the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE). We reexamine GLIMPCE Line C by developing a detailed velocity model for time to depth conversion constrained by other legacy data. We corroborate the model and develop a geologic interpretation using gravity and magnetic modeling and ties to geology mapped onshore. We recognize superposed subsiding sedimentary and volcanic basins for the southern half of the Line C depth section. This interpretation differs from previous paradigms that show major crustal faults that bound half-grabens or full grabens. We conclude that high-velocity (6.9 km/s) intrusive zones rather than major crustal faults border the sides of the basins. We speculate that the volcanic basin represents the initiation of seaward dipping reflectors. The syn-magmatic subsidence can be explained by dike injection and volcanic loading. Discrete lava basins throughout the region likely subsided at different times in a disorganized manner along the rift trend, raising questions about the long-term role of lithospheric thinning and melt generation.

Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, Wisconsin

Anatectic origin of Mississippian spodumene-bearing pegmatites in western Maine during orogenic plateau collapse

Spodumene pegmatites are an important lithium source, but the processes and tectonic settings in which they form are poorly understood. The Rumford pegmatite district surrounding Plumbago Mountain, western Maine, is host to numerous spodumene pegmatites, including the Plumbago North pegmatite (a world-class spodumene resource). Competing petrogenetic models for these spodumene pegmatites include (1) highly fractionated melts of the Mooselookmeguntic igneous complex and (2) anatexis. We tested these hypotheses by constraining the geologic, magmatic, metamorphic, and tectonic history of the Plumbago Mountain area with detailed geologic mapping and U-(Th)-Pb geochronology. The Silurian Rangeley Formation records initial isoclinal folding prior to, and contact-related metamorphism synchronous with, the intrusion of the 417 ± 4 Ma Plumbago Mountain pluton. Peak amphibolite facies metamorphism and crustal melting occurred during the ca. 410 to 400 Ma Acadian orogeny. Pulsed emplacement of the Mooselookmeguntic igneous complex occurred between ca. 389 and 356 Ma. Cassiterite U-Pb dates of spodumene pegmatites (333–327 Ma) are ≥23 m.y. younger than nearby granitic plutons, strongly arguing against the fractional crystallization model. Metamorphic monazite and xenotime (346–328 Ma) and 330 to 308 Ma 40 Ar/ 39 Ar hornblende dates indicate metamorphism coeval with spodumene pegmatite emplacement, supporting anatectic models. Reheating, anatexis, and spodumene pegmatite emplacement occurred during collapse of the 380 to 330 Ma Acadian orogenic plateau. Lithium enrichment may be linked to one or more stages of partial melting of metasedimentary and plutonic rocks during the formation, tenure, and collapse of the Acadian altiplano and emphasizes the role of anatexis in producing spodumene pegmatites of economic significance.

Maine

Competition between invasive round goby and native slimy sculpin in a coldwater laboratory setting

Slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) abundance has substantially declined in many regions of the Laurentian Great Lakes coincident with the arrival and range expansions of invasive round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ). Previous studies have shown that round goby can outcompete native mottled sculpin ( C. bairdii ) for shelter and negatively affect native spoonhead sculpin ( C. ricei ) growth, but direct behavioral interactions of slimy sculpin and round goby have not been observed. We conducted a laboratory experiment in which a pair of slimy sculpin were placed in an aquarium that contained an artificial spawning shelter and one round goby (treatment, n = 10) or no other fish (control, n = 10) for at least 30 days at temperatures reflective of their potential offshore overlap. We measured slimy sculpin egg deposition, aggressive interactions, artificial shelter occupancy, growth, and survival. Slimy sculpin were less likely to occupy shelters and experienced increased intraspecific competition when a round goby was present. In contrast, round goby rarely chased slimy sculpin, slimy sculpin were more likely to chase round goby, and slimy sculpin growth, egg deposition, and survival were not significantly different between groups. Differences in density between treatments and the relative size of fish could confound our observations. However, the dominant slimy sculpin occupied the shelter at similar rates between experimental groups if the round goby was smaller. Our results indicate that larger round goby overlapping with slimy sculpin could affect slimy sculpin shelter and space use, but the Great Lakes environment may create more stress for slimy sculpin than we observed.

Lake Michigan, Lake Superior

Wavelet Inversion for SliP (WISP): Open-source earthquake slip modeling software

Models of the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquake slip, termed finite-fault models, are a critical component of rapid earthquake and tsunami response, earthquake forecasting, seismic ground-motion estimates, and studies of earthquake kinematics. Here, we detail a newly released finite-fault modeling software, Wavelet Inversion for SliP (WISP), in use at the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) and available to the public. WISP version 1.1.0 allows inversion of teleseismic body and surface waves, as well as local strong-motion, static and dynamic Global Navigation Satellite System, and satellite imagery (e.g., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) observations on single or multiple planar fault segments. The software is used in NEIC rapid response of earthquakes M w ≥ 7, generally resulting in a published model within the first few hours after the event origin time. The rupture location and dimensions are then used as inputs to downstream products to estimate earthquake shaking, predict loss, and model the likelihood of secondary hazards, namely landslides and liquefaction. WISP is also used in research studies to evaluate the characteristics of complex ruptures including multifault ruptures and earthquake doublets, among others. The WISP version 1.1.0 software release is composed of Python-wrapped FORTRAN code to accomplish the inversion procedure. A simple command line interface facilitates ease of use even for those with only a cursory knowledge of Python scripting. WISP version 1.1.0 includes a Jupyter Notebook tutorial demonstrating use of the software for modeling the 2015 M w 8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake. In parallel with the tutorial, we demonstrate the typical usage of the WISP software using the M w 8.3 Illapel earthquake example here.

Seismological Research Letters

Colored shaded relief bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of Ozette Lake, Washington

Offshore of the Pacific Northwest of the United States is the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000-kilometer-long tectonic boundary defined by a large fault, called a megathrust, that extends from the Mendocino Junction off northern California to the Nootka Fracture Zone off Vancouver Island, Canada (U.S. Geological Survey, 2023). The Juan de Fuca and Gorda oceanic plates to the west of this boundary subduct under the North America continental plate to the east. Several other smaller faults that cut through the North America plate crust also affect the region. Although their effects upon Ozette Lake are uncertain, geological evidence for past earthquakes, such as underwater landslides, may be found in Pacific Northwest lakes. Underwater landslides caused by past earthquakes should be well preserved in these relatively undisturbed lake environments. The floor of Ozette Lake, Washington, located along the Pacific coast of the United States, west of the Puget Sound region and about 140 kilometers east of the megathrust was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey in July of 2019 to search for evidence of past earthquakes. Mapping was completed using a SWATHplus-M 234-kHz interferometric side scan sonar system pole-mounted on the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel San Lorenzo. The system collected full-coverage bathymetric and acoustic backscatter data that were processed to 2-meter spatial resolution (Dartnell and others, 2024). This two-map series displays the results of this mapping. A colored shaded relief bathymetry map (sheet 1) and an acoustic backscatter map (sheet 2) show the lake floor morphology and backscatter intensities, respectively, that can be analyzed for evidence of past earthquakes.

Washington

Distinguishing natural from mining-related metal sources by including streambank groundwater data in a stream mass loading study

Distinguishing stream metal loading caused by mine features from that caused by natural background sources remains challenging, yet this distinction is essential for making effective remedial decisions at many legacy mine sites. We combine a stream tracer injection and synoptic sampling study with data from shallow near-stream groundwater wells to estimate left-bank versus right-bank metal loading contributions at the 100-m spatial scale. The study was performed in the East Mancos River, a mountain headwater stream in Colorado, USA. The dominant source of elevated stream metal concentrations could be either groundwater infiltration through right-bank Doyle Mine waste piles or natural acid rock drainage from hydrothermally altered bedrock located mainly on the left bank. For the five metals of concern (Cu, Al, Zn, Cd, and Mn), we find that 15 % of the load contributed by diffuse groundwater inputs in the section potentially influenced by Doyle mine waste originates from the right bank. This right-bank potential mine contribution equates to only 3 % of the total watershed instream load for these metals. Furthermore, apparent 3 H/ 3 He groundwater ages in segments contributing most of the right-bank metal loading are sufficiently old (9–12 yr) to suggest that infiltration through the waste piles, located only 140–180 m from the stream, is unlikely. Estimated potential Doyle mine loading contributions can therefore be considered maximum values. Study results thus indicate that Doyle mine waste piles are a minor source of metal loading under low-flow conditions, and streambank groundwater data can provide valuable additional information in stream mass loading studies.

Colorado

Re-examining the growing degree day minimum for grass carp spawning initiation in Lake Erie: Have we missed the mark?

Understanding the timing of life history processes of invasive fish species, such as adult aggregations during spawning, allows natural resource managers to optimize targeted population control efforts. Temperature-based estimates of the timing of spawning initiation for grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) exist from its native range, but have not previously been developed for grass carp reproduction in its invaded range in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. We accounted for differences among methods across studies and calculated cumulative growing degree days (GDD) for the dates of grass carp egg capture in Lake Erie tributaries (Sandusky, Maumee, and Huron rivers) during 2015–2024 and compared these values to the existing GDD base 15°C requirement estimate from the native range (633 GDD–15°C). The earliest egg detection in Lake Erie (Sandusky River) was 19 GDD–15°C or 361 GDD–5°C (latest egg detection was 2285 GDD–5°C from the Sandusky River), indicating that spawning was initiated up to 25 days earlier than would be predicted by the native range GDD. Moreover, spawning in Lake Erie tributaries occurred earlier than predicted for 58% of spawning events examined based on the native range GDD. The GDD values for spawning initiation in Lake Erie tributaries can be used to refine the timing of control efforts targeting pre-spawn and spawning adult fish, inform the timing of egg sampling, and provide linkages to existing early life stage models to infer the length of the growing season available for age-0 fish to reassess tributary suitability.

Lake Erie, Maumee, River, Sandusky river

Integrated stratigraphic and geochemical analysis of organic-rich intervals of the Lewis Shale in the eastern Washakie Basin, Wyoming

Geological studies in the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway (KWIS) in North America reveal highly variable sedimentological conditions on its western shore caused by rapidly changing sea level and detrital input during the seaway’s closure. Here we examine a 601-foot (183 meters) continuous core through the lower part of the Maastrichtian Lewis Shale in the eastern Washakie Basin, Wyoming, through integrating stratigraphic and geochemical analyses to better understand organic matter deposition and preservation during the final marine transgression within the seaway. The core penetrates eight organic-rich flooding intervals (F1-F8) and a regional condensed section, informally known as the Asquith marker. The lower portions of the core record sediment input from a southern source, likely the Sierra Madre/Park Ranges, while the upper part records sediment input from a northern source, likely the Granite Mountains. This provenance transition is supported by regional stratigraphic analysis and changes in bulk mineral and trace metal composition. The Asquith marker and early flooding surfaces are enriched in oil-prone, marine organic matter deposited under dysoxic to euxinic conditions, whereas younger flooding surfaces show increased terrigenous input and poorer preservation conditions. The Asquith marker is identified as a prime oil-prone source rock. Although younger flooding surfaces also exhibit favorable source-rock properties, their generative potential is reduced due to increased clastic and terrigenous organic matter deposition caused by regression. These results emphasize the importance of sediment source variability, organic matter preservation, and changing redox conditions to provide insight into the sediment provenance and petroleum potential of the Lewis Shale in the context of the final transgression within the KWIS.

Colorado, Wyoming

Evaluating Laramide orogenesis via flexural basin response in the San Juan basin, New Mexico and Colorado

A challenge in interpreting the location, timing, and magnitude of ancient orogenic events is that ongoing uplift and erosion in the hinterlands often destroys much of the primary record of these events. However, basin-thickness patterns in the sedimentary record can provide complimentary evidence of uplift via flexural effects. Here, we deploy well-log correlation, isochores, basin modeling, flexural modeling, and subcrop mapping to evaluate the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene basin response to Laramide tectonism in the San Juan basin. A wedge of upper Campanian to Maastrichtian sedimentary rock thickens from 200 to 800 meters from southeast to northwest in the basin. This pattern can be successfully simulated via flexural modeling if we infer early Laramide uplift along the northwest basin flank that produced a 0.8 km high topographic load. The Laramide unconformity bounds the top of this Upper Cretaceous sedimentary wedge and truncates progressively older strata to the east, further supporting a westward tilt of the basin. The onset of Campanian Laramide flexure may have also contributed to the profound transgression from the upper Menefee Formation to the Lewis Shale. The Paleocene isochore map displays an approximately symmetrical pattern, with thickening towards the center of the basin. This suggests the possibility of competing flexural loads. The base Eocene structure indicates an asymmetric deep on the northeast flank of the basin, providing flexural evidence of contemporaneous uplift/loading of the Nacimiento uplift and Archuleta arch; this has been modeled as ~2.1 km load height. Both Cretaceous and Paleocene sedimentary wedges are narrow, suggesting low flexural rigidity; modeled effective elastic thicknesses (EET) are 20-30 km, comparable to estimates of modern EET for the region.

Colorado, New Mexico

Reassessing water availability in the Nile River Basin using satellite-based irrigation water use accounting

Existing estimates of irrigation areas and water use in the Nile River Basin vary widely and are based on inconsistent data and methodologies. This study leverages advances in remote sensing to provide an up-to-date and consistent basin-wide reassessment of water use in the Nile River Basin. Land cover and actual evapotranspiration data from 2013 to 2022 were used to quantify irrigated areas, irrigation water use, and the average naturalized water yield. Across the basin, 7.1 million hectares of irrigated land consume an average of 72.5 ± 2.6 billion cubic meters (BCM) of blue water annually. Egypt and Sudan together account for 92% of the irrigated area and 97% of the irrigation water use. The basin’s average naturalized yield, evaluated at Dongola station, is determined to be between 108 and 114.4 ± 3.2 BCM. Although conservative, this updated analysis indicates the basin’s average naturalized yield is 14%–20% higher than the previous naturalized yield estimate (95 BCM) and 29%–36% higher than the commonly cited observed flow of 84 BCM, which is frequently treated as the total basin-wide available water. Importantly, the study underscores that the 84 BCM represents flow at the Aswan gauging station after upstream consumptive uses, not the total water available in the basin under naturalized conditions. This distinction is critical for accurate water accounting, planning, and governance in this water-scarce basin. This study demonstrates the value of open-source remote sensing resources in data-scarce regions while emphasizing the need for region specific validation and bias correction for improved accuracy.

Nile River Basin

Global performance of remote sensing-based and reanalysis-driven models to estimate open water evaporation

Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, we analyze the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. We compare 3 remote sensing-based models, 1 reanalysis-driven model and 1 ensemble approach, using in situ observations from 27 lakes representing a diverse range of geographic and climatic regions. Our results demonstrate that, overall, the ensemble outperformed any individual model in terms of accuracy, with a RMSE and a bias of 1.3 and 0.3 mm day −1 , respectively. These findings highlight the benefits of using an ensemble approach to estimate open water evaporation with satellite-based models at the global scale, leveraging the unique strengths of each model. For the individual models, differences in the representation of heat storage changes and advection effects led to lower values of RMSE and bias, depending on the location and depth of the lakes. This study sets the path for future improvement of open water evaporation algorithms globally, while remote sensing techniques are proven satisfactory to monitoring of water loss in lakes globally, an essential step toward effective large-scale water resources management.

Water Resources Research

Four-band image mosaic of the Colorado River Corridor downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, derived from the May 2021 airborne image acquisition

In May 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center acquired airborne multispectral high-resolution data for the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The image data, which consist of four spectral bands (red, band 1; green, band 2; blue, band 3; and near infrared, band 4) with a ground resolution of 20 centimeters, are available as 16-bit unsigned-integer GeoTIFF files in Sankey and others (2024) (available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BBGN6G ). The image files are projected in the State Plane Coordinate System, using the central Arizona zone (202) with the North American Datum of 1983 National Adjustment of 2011. The assessed spatial accuracy for these data is based on 47 ground-control points that were independent from the ground-control points used by the contractor for aerotriangulation and is reported at the 95-percent confidence level as 0.514 meter (m) and a root mean square error of 0.297 m. The intended uses of this dataset are primarily in support of scientific research and monitoring applications. Examples of these applications include high-resolution spatial and temporal change detection of the river channel, geomorphic landforms, riparian vegetation, and backwater and nearshore habitat, as well as other ecosystem-wide mapping. These imagery data also serve as reference material for field science mission planning, as base data for field data collection including community science activities, and as a highly detailed guide for technical boat operation during science activities such as reconnaissance for nighttime missions and navigating rapids during low flows.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah

Emerging investigator series: Post-wildfire sediment geochemical characterization reveals manganese reactivity and a potential link to water quality impairment in the Gallinas Creek watershed, New Mexico

Water quality post-wildfire is often impaired by increased turbidity and elevated concentrations of elements such as manganese (Mn) and iron (Fe). Precipitation events exacerbate these issues, due in part to increased erosion and transport of sediment from hillslopes to surface water. Both Mn and Fe are major redox-active elements in sediments that drive a variety of biogeochemical cycles, precipitate adsorptive phases, and can themselves be drinking water contaminants. By investigating Mn and Fe sediment geochemistry in post-wildfire sediment deposits, related water quality hazards can be assessed. To establish and strengthen this connection, we analyzed the geochemistry of sediment deposits and surface water in the Gallinas Creek watershed, New Mexico over 1.5 years post-wildfire. Analyses included particle size analysis, water extractions, sequential extractions and aqua regia extractions to determine metal partitioning in sediment deposits. Data demonstrate Mn concentrations were distributed across labile and reactive fractions, such as the exchangeable and oxyhydroxide fractions, while Fe concentrations were mainly associated with the residual fraction. Manganese concentrations in aqua regia extractions and several fractions of sequential extractions were also strongly and significantly correlated with fine-grained sediment while the same pools of Fe concentrations were not. Dissolved Mn concentrations in surface water were elevated (>50 μg L −1 ) multiple times over the 1.5 years post-wildfire, highlighting a relationship between sediment geochemistry and water quality. This work shows Mn in sediments mobilized post-wildfire has an influence on water quality and highlights how further investigation into Mn sediment redox processes and mineralogy post-wildfire can inform risk assessments and resource management.

New Mexico

Comparative crop yield forecasting using satellite-derived biophysical and agro-climatic predictors in Sub-Saharan Africa

Timely and accurate crop yield forecasting is central to food security early warning systems, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions. While operational forecasting frameworks commonly rely on precipitation and vegetation indices such as NDVI, their ability to provide actionable lead time remains limited. Here, we evaluate the added value of satellite-derived biophysical Essential Climate Variables (ECVs): Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), for forecasting millet yield in Burkina Faso (BF) and maize yield in South Africa (ZA) and Malawi (MW). Using Random Forest models, we quantify forecast skill across the growing season at both national and sub-national scales. Results show that LAI and FAPAR provide effective forecast lead times of approximately 4 months in BF, 2 months in ZA, and up to 6 months in MW relative to harvest. At peak performance, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reaches 19.8% (LAI) and 23.8% (FAPAR) in BF, 12.0% and 9.8% in ZA, and 21.8% and 20.8% in MW, respectively. Across countries, biophysical parameters often outperform NDVI and precipitation, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. At the sub-national level, LAI and FAPAR enable classification of administrative units into high and moderate-skill forecast units, revealing strong spatial heterogeneity linked to crop dominance. However, forecast skill declines where the target crop is not the dominant type, highlighting an important limitation for operational deployment. Overall, the findings suggest that satellite-derived biophysical parameters can provide earlier and more spatially resolved yield signals than commonly used predictors, with potential to improve the timeliness and effectiveness of food security early warning systems.

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environme