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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources

USGS2007

A multiple-approach radiometric age estimate for the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions, New Zealand, with implications for the MIS 4/3 boundary

Pyroclastic fall deposits of the paired Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (New Zealand) combine to form a widespread isochronous horizon over much of northern New Zealand and the southwest Pacific. This horizon is important for correlating climatic and environmental changes during the Last Glacial period, but has been the subject of numerous disparate age estimates between 35.1±2.8 and 71±6 ka (all errors are 1 s.d.), obtained by a variety of techniques. A potassium–argon (K–Ar) age of 64±4 ka was previously determined on bracketing lavas at Mayor Island volcano, offshore from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. We present a new, more-precise 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age determination on a lava flow on Mayor Island, that shortly post-dates the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits, of 58.5±1.1 ka. This value, coupled with existing ages from underlying lavas, yield a new estimate for the age of the combined eruptions of 61.0±1.4 ka, which is consistent with U–Th disequilibrium model-age data for zircons from the Rotoiti deposits. Direct 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age determinations of plagioclase and biotite from the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruption products yield variable values between 49.6±2.8 and 125.3±10.0 ka, with the scatter attributed to low radiogenic Ar yields, and/or alteration, and/or inheritance of xenocrystic material with inherited Ar. Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits occur in New Zealand in association with palynological indicators of mild climate, attributed to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and thus used to suggest an age that is post-59 ka. The natures of the criteria used to define the MIS 4/3 boundary in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, however, imply that the new 61 ka age for the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat eruption deposits will provide the inverse, namely, a more accurate isochronous marker for correlating diverse changes across the MIS 4/3 boundary in the southwest Pacific.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2021

Understanding the effects of climate change via disturbance on pristine arctic lakes — Multitrophic level response and recovery to a 12-yr, low-level fertilization experiment

Effects of climate change-driven disturbance on lake ecosystems can be subtle; indirect effects include increased nutrient loading that could impact ecosystem function. We designed a low-level fertilization experiment to mimic persistent, climate change-driven disturbances (deeper thaw, greater weathering, or thermokarst failure) delivering nutrients to arctic lakes. We measured responses of pelagic trophic levels over 12 yr in a fertilized deep lake with fish and a shallow fishless lake, compared to paired reference lakes, and monitored recovery for 6 yr. Relative to prefertilization in the deep lake, we observed a maximum pelagic response in chl a (+201%), dissolved oxygen (DO, −43%), and zooplankton biomass (+88%) during the fertilization period (2001–2012). Other responses to fertilization, such as water transparency and fish relative abundance, were delayed, but both ultimately declined. Phyto- and zooplankton biomass and community composition shifted with fertilization. The effects of fertilization were less pronounced in the paired shallow lakes, because of a natural thermokarst failure likely impacting the reference lake. In the deep lake there was (a) moderate resistance to change in ecosystem functions at all trophic levels, (b) eventual responses were often nonlinear, and (c) postfertilization recovery (return) times were most rapid at the base of the food web (2–4 yr) while higher trophic levels failed to recover after 6 yr. The timing and magnitude of responses to fertilization in these arctic lakes were similar to responses in other lakes, suggesting indirect effects of climate change that modify nutrient inputs may affect many lakes in the future.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Amphibians and reptiles

Amphibians and reptiles are a diverse group of ectothermic vertebrates that occupy a variety of habitats in rangelands of North America, from wetlands to the driest deserts. These two classes of vertebrates are often referred to as herpetofauna and are studied under the field of herpetology. In U.S. rangelands, there are approximately 66 species of frogs and toads, 58 salamanders, 98 lizards, 111 snakes, and 27 turtles and tortoises. Herpetofauna tend to be poorly studied compared with other vertebrates, which creates a challenge for biologists and landowners who are trying to manage rangeland activities for this diverse group of animals and their habitats. Degradation of habitats from human land use and alteration of natural processes, like wildfire, are primary threats to herpetofauna populations. Disease, non-native predators, collection for the pet trade, and persecution are also conservation concerns for some species. Properly managed livestock grazing is generally compatible with herpetofauna conservation, and private and public rangelands provide crucial habitat for many species. Climate change also poses a threat to herpetofauna, but we have an incomplete understanding of the potential effects on species. Dispersal and adaptation could provide some capacity for species to persist on rangelands as climates, disturbance regimes, and habitats change. However, inadequate information and considerable uncertainty will make climate mitigation planning difficult for the foreseeable future. Planning for and mitigating effects of climate change, and interactions with other stressors, is an urgent area for research. Maintaining large, heterogeneous land areas as rangelands will certainly be an important part of the conservation strategy for herpetofauna in North America.

Book chapter↗

USGS2022

Conflict of energies: Spatially modeling mule deer caloric expenditure in response to oil and gas development

Context Wildlife avoid human disturbances, including roads and development. Avoidance and displacement of wildlife into less suitable habitat due to human development can affect their energy expenditures and fitness. The heart rate and oxygen uptake of large mammals varies with both natural aspects of their habitat (terrain, climate, predators, etc.) and anthropogenic influence (noise, light, fragmentation, etc.). Although incorporating physiological analyses of energetics can inform the impacts of both development and conservation, management decisions rarely incorporate individuals’ energetic requirements when deciding on locations for potential development. Objectives We aimed to estimate the change in expected energy expenditure, numerically and spatially, for mule deer to traverse a landscape with varying levels of oil and gas development through time. Methods Using calculations of energy expenditure of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) by weight, in relation to physical terrain components, plus avoidance factors for anthropogenic disturbance, we developed a spatiotemporal model of the minimum energy required for mule deer to traverse a landscape. We compared expected energy expenditure across 12 study sites with increasing levels of oil and gas development and over time in our study area, on the northern Colorado Plateau of Utah. Results We found that energy expenditure can be increased by development, regardless of terrain, through increased travel distance associated with avoidance behavior. Maximum median energy expenditure to traverse a 1400 ha sample area rose from 1135 to 1935 kilocalories, a 70% increase in energy required of a mule deer. There was a significant relationship between energy expenditure and the size of oil and gas development (p < 0.001), its compactness (p < 0.05), and its ‘thinness’ (p < 0.001), but not terrain ruggedness (p = 0.25). Conclusion As the energy costs of movement correlate across multiple species of large mammals, our analysis of the energetic cost, for mule deer, associated with development can serve as a quantitative representative of the impacts of oil and gas development for multiple mammals—including threatened or endangered species. Our bioenergetic cost-distance model provides a means of delineating impediments to efficient movement and can be used to quantify the expected energetic costs of proposed future developments. As wildlife are exposed to increasing anthropogenic stressors which reduce fitness, it is important to make strategic siting decisions to reduce energetic costs imposed by human activities.

Utah↗

USGS2014

Late Holocene vegetation, climate, and land-use impacts on carbon dynamics in the Florida Everglades

Tropical and subtropical peatlands are considered a significant carbon sink. The Florida Everglades includes 6000-km 2 of peat-accumulating wetland; however, detailed carbon dynamics from different environments within the Everglades have not been extensively studied or compared. Here we present carbon accumulation rates from 13 cores and 4 different environments, including sawgrass ridges and sloughs, tree islands, and marl prairies, whose hydroperiods and vegetation communities differ. We find that the lowest rates of C accumulation occur in sloughs in the southern Everglades. The highest rates are found where hydroperiods are generally shorter, including near-tails of tree islands and drier ridges. Long-term average rates of 100 to >200 g C m −2 yr −1 are as high, and in some cases, higher than rates recorded from the tropics and 10–20 times higher than boreal averages. C accumulation rates were impacted by both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the largest impacts to C accumulation rates over the Holocene record have been the anthropogenic changes associated with expansion of agriculture and construction of canals and levees to control movement of surface water. Water management practices in the 20th century have altered the natural hydroperiods and fire regimes of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades as a whole has acted as a significant carbon sink over the mid- to late-Holocene, but reduction of the spatial extent of the original wetland area, as well as the alteration of natural hydrology in the late 19th and 20th centuries, have significantly reduced the carbon sink capacity of this subtropical wetland.

Florida↗

USGS2006

Peak flow responses to landscape disturbances caused by the cataclysmic 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

Years of discharge measurements that precede and follow the cataclysmic 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, provide an exceptional opportunity to examine the responses of peak flows to abrupt, widespread, devastating landscape disturbance. Multiple basins surrounding Mount St. Helens (300–1300 km 2 drainage areas) were variously disturbed by: (1) a debris avalanche that buried 60 km 2 of valley; (2) a lateral volcanic blast and associated pyroclastic flow that destroyed 550 km 2 of mature forest and blanketed the landscape with silt-capped lithic tephra; (3) debris flows that reamed riparian corridors and deposited tens to hundreds of centimeters of gravelly sand on valley floors; and (4) a Plinian tephra fall that blanketed areas proximal to the volcano with up to tens of centimeters of pumiceous silt, sand, and gravel. The spatially complex disturbances produced a variety of potentially compensating effects that interacted with and influenced hydrological responses. Changes to water transfer on hillslopes and to flow storage and routing along channels both enhanced and retarded runoff. Rapid post-eruption modifications of hillslope surface textures, adjustments of channel networks, and vegetation recovery, in conjunction with the complex nature of the eruptive impacts and strong seasonal variability in regional climate hindered a consistent or persistent shift in peak discharges. Overall, we detected a short-lived (5–10 yr) increase in the magnitudes of autumn and winter peak flows. In general, peak flows were larger, and moderate to large flows (> Q 2 yr ) were more substantively affected than predicted by early modeling efforts. Proportional increases in the magnitudes of both small and large flows in basins subject to severe channel disturbances, but not in basins subject solely to hillslope disturbances, suggest that eruption-induced modifications to flow efficiency along alluvial channels that have very mobile beds differentially affected flows of various magnitudes and likely played a prominent, and additional, role affecting the nature of the hydrological response.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Arizona and Landsat

Arizona is a land of massive grandeur, deep gorges, lofty mountains, immense plains, and elevated mesas—and, without question, its crown jewel is the Grand Canyon. The spectacular canyon, one of the seven natural wonders of the world, was created when the Colorado River carved a channel through northern Arizona, revealing nearly two billion years of the Earth's history. Yet, for all its ancient beauty, Arizona and its landscapes are experiencing a transformation. Arizonans face more extreme temperatures and drought because of climate change. Amid a drought in the western United States, Lake Mead, one of Arizona's main water resources, dropped to a record low level in June 2021. Climate change is making extreme weather events such as dust storms and heat waves more common, posing higher risks to human health, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Reyes, California

This publication about the Offshore of Point Reyes map area includes ten map sheets that contain explanatory text, in addition to this descriptive pamphlet and a data catalog of geographic information system (GIS) files. Sheets 1, 2, and 3 combine data from four different sonar surveys to generate comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter coverage of the map area. These data reveal a range of physiographic features (highlighted in the perspective views on sheet 4) such as the flat, sediment-covered seafloor in Drakes Bay, as well as abundant “scour depressions” on the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf (see sheet 9) and local, tectonically controlled bedrock uplifts. To validate geological and biological interpretations of the sonar data shown in sheets 1, 2, and 3, the U.S. Geological Survey towed a camera sled over specific offshore locations, collecting both video and photographic imagery; these “ground-truth” surveying data are summarized on sheet 6. Sheet 5 is a “seafloor character” map, which classifies the seafloor on the basis of depth, slope, rugosity (ruggedness), and backscatter intensity and which is further informed by the ground-truth-survey imagery. Sheet 7 is a map of “potential habitats,” which are delineated on the basis of substrate type, geomorphology, seafloor process, or other attributes that may provide a habitat for a specific species or assemblage of organisms. Sheet 8 compiles representative seismic-reflection profiles from the map area, providing information on the subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the map area. Sheet 9 shows the distribution and thickness of young sediment (deposited over the last about 21,000 years, during the most recent sea-level rise) in both the map area and the larger Salt Point to Drakes Bay region, interpreted on the basis of the seismic-reflection data, and it identifies the Offshore of Point Reyes map area as lying within the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf, Point Reyes bar, and Bolinas shelf domains. Sheet 10 is a geologic map that merges onshore geologic mapping (compiled from existing maps by the California Geological Survey) and new offshore geologic mapping that is based on integration of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter imagery (sheets 1, 2, 3), seafloor-sediment and rock samples (Reid and others, 2006), digital camera and video imagery (sheet 6), and high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (sheet 8), as well as aerial-photographic interpretation of nearshore areas. The information provided by the map sheets, pamphlet, and data catalog have a broad range of applications. High-resolution bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, ground-truth-surveying imagery, and habitat mapping all contribute to habitat characterization and ecosystem-based management by providing essential data for delineation of marine protected areas and ecosystem restoration. Many of the maps provide high-resolution baselines that will be critical for monitoring environmental change associated with climate change, coastal development, or other forcings. High-resolution bathymetry is a critical component for modeling coastal flooding caused by storms and tsunamis, as well as inundation associated with longer term sea-level rise. Seismic-reflection and bathymetric data help characterize earthquake and tsunami sources, critical for natural-hazard assessments of coastal zones. Information on sediment distribution and thickness is essential to the understanding of local and regional sediment transport, as well as the development of regional sediment-management plans. In addition, siting of any new offshore infrastructure (for example, pipelines, cables, or renewable-energy facilities) will depend on high-resolution mapping. Finally, this mapping will both stimulate and enable new scientific research and also raise public awareness of, and education about, coastal environments and issues.

California↗

USGS2021

Estimating invertebrate response to changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and specific conductance at sites where invertebrate data are unavailable

The purpose of this report is to describe a possible approach to estimate changes in invertebrate taxa richness at sites with known water-quality trends but no invertebrate data. In this study, data from 1,322 sites were used to describe invertebrate response to changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, or specific conductance, and to estimate changes in invertebrate taxa richness at 259 sites with reported water-quality trends but no invertebrate data. Sites were stratified using propensity score analysis to control for confounding factors (for example, climate, land use, land cover). Generalized linear models were developed to describe changes in invertebrate taxa richness along gradients of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and specific conductance values. The magnitude and direction of invertebrate response to gradients of water quality varied among parameters and strata, with changes in invertebrate taxa richness per natural log unit change in concentration ranging from –7 to +6. However, estimated changes in invertebrate taxa richness at sites with known water-quality trends were much less and did not exceed three taxa until changes in concentration were greater than 50 percent. Applying this approach provides (1) a first screening to identify where changes in invertebrate taxa richness are likely to occur and (2) the necessary groundwork to improve estimation of invertebrate response to trends in water quality where biological data are lacking.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Can beaches survive climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2011

Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is the focus of most papers in this Special Section, we posit that many of the issues that characterize the remote, relatively undisturbed ecosystems of high northern latitudes are widespread and thus applicable to natural-resource management and conservation across northern portions of the Holarctic ecozone and indeed anywhere broad-scale monitoring is contemplated.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2023

Nisqually River Delta—Humans and nature benefiting together

Introduction This is a brochure created in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Nisqually Indian Tribe, and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge. Designed for a public audience, the brochure describes the history of the Nisqually Indian Tribe, the ecology of the delta, the resources and recreational opportunities available for Refuge visitors, future challenges posed by climate change, and opportunities to protect wildlife and their habitats in the future.

Washington↗

USGS2010

Groundwater sustainability strategies

Groundwater extraction has facilitated significant social development and economic growth, enhanced food security and alleviated drought in many farming regions. But groundwater development has also depressed water tables, degraded ecosystems and led to the deterioration of groundwater quality, as well as to conflict among water users. The effects are not evenly spread. In some areas of India, for example, groundwater depletion has preferentially affected the poor. Importantly, groundwater in some aquifers is renewed slowly, over decades to millennia, and coupled climate–aquifer models predict that the flux and/or timing of recharge to many aquifers will change under future climate scenarios. Here we argue that communities need to set multigenerational goals if groundwater is to be managed sustainably.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2002

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

RINHewS: Newsletter of the Rhode Island Natural Hi↗

USGS1964

Geology and ground-water conditions in the Wilmington-Reading area, Massachusetts

The Wilmington-Reading area, as defined for this report, contains the headwaters of the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts. Since World War II the growth of communities in this area and the change in character of some of them from rural to suburban have created new water problems and intensified old ones. The purpose of this report on ground-water conditions is to provide information that will aid in understanding and resolving some of these problems. The regional climate, which is humid and temperate, assures the area an ample natural supply of water. At the current stage of water-resources development a large surplus of water drains from the area by way of the Ipswich River during late autumn, winter, and spring each year and is unavailable for use during summer and early autumn, when during some years there is a general water deficiency. Ground water occurs both in bedrock and in the overlying deposits of glacial drift. The bedrock is a source of small but generally reliable supplies of water throughout the area. Glacial till also is a source of small supplies of water, but wells in till often fail to meet modern demands. Stratified glacial drift, including ice-contact deposits and outwash, yields small to large supplies of water. Stratified glacial drift forms the principal ground-water reservoir. It partly fills a system of preglacial valleys corresponding roughly to the valleys of the present Ipswich River system and is more than 100 feet thick at places. The ice-contact deposits generally are more permeable than the outwash deposits. Ground water occurs basically under water-table conditions. Recharge in the Wilmington-Reading area is derived principally from precipitation on outcrop areas of ice-contact deposits and outwash during late autumn, winter. and spring. It is estimated that the net annual recharge averages about 10 inches and generally ranges from 5 inches during unusually dry years to 15 inches during unusually wet years. Ground water withdrawn largely by municipal wells supplies the towns of North Reading, Reading, and Wilmington. In 1957 the average daily withdrawal from these wells was about 2.5 million gallons, of which about half was used outside the Ipswich River drainage basin. The chemical quality of the ground water is generally satisfactory except for local excessive concentrations of iron. The storage capacity of the ground-water reservoir and recharge in the Wilmington-Reading area are large enough to sustain a total withdrawal of ground water at several times the current rate, but the use of the reservoir probably will be limited by the extent to which wells of moderate or large capacity can be dispersed. This will depend upon the distribution of areas of thick permeable materials. Conditions in the Martins Brook-Skug River drainage basin seem generally favorable for increased development of water supplies. In the rest of the Wilmington-Reading area the chances of finding substantial bodies of thick permeable materials probably are small, but further exploration is desirable. Measures proposed to drain swampland by deepening and straightening the Ipswich River and its tributaries will have some effect upon the ground-water conditions. Probably the most obvious effect will be a lowering of water levels in wells near improved reaches of channel. Also important will b the effect of changes in low streamflow conditions on wells that induce infiltration from streams and the effect on well yields of an improved hydraulic connection between streams and the ground-water body. The Reading 100-acre well field, which derives part of its supply by inducing recharge from the Ipswich River, would be affected by the drainage measures. During a dry summer, such as that of 1957, the flow of the Ipswich is fully diverted by pumping at this well field, and drawdowns at some of the wells approach half the saturated thickness of the aquifer there. If the drainage measures are

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS1985

Experimental studies in natural groundwater-recharge dynamics: The analysis of observed recharge events

The amounts and time distribution of groundwater recharge from precipitation over an approximately 19-month period were investigated at two instrumented sites in south-central Kansas. Precipitation and evapotranspiration sequences, soil-moisture profiles and storage changes, water fluxes in the unsaturated zone and hydraulic gradients in the saturated zone at various depths, soil temperatures, water-table hydrographs, and water-level changes in nearby wells clearly depict the recharge process. Antecedent moisture conditions and the thickness and nature of the unsaturated zone were found to be the major factors affecting recharge. Although the two instrumented sites are located in sand-dune environments in areas characterized by shallow water table and subhumid continental climate, a significant difference was observed in the estimated effective recharge. The estimates ranged from less than 2.5 to approximately 154 mm at the two sites from February to June 1983. The main reasons for this large difference in recharge estimates were the greater thickness of the unsaturated zone and the lower moisture content in that zone resulting from lower precipitation and higher potential evapotranspiration for one of the sites. Effective recharge took place only during late winter and spring. No summer or fall recharge was observed at either site during the observation period of this study.

Kansas↗

USGS2020

A spatial analysis of climate gentrification in Orleans Parish, Louisiana post-Hurricane Katrina

Background Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans, Louisiana as a Category 3 storm in August 2005. Storm surges, levee failures, and the low-lying nature of New Orleans led to widespread flooding, damage to over 70% of occupied housing, and evacuation of 80–90% of city residents. Only 57% of the city's black population has returned. Many residents complain of gentrification following rebuilding efforts. Climate gentrification is a recently described phenomenon whereby the effects of climate change, most notably rising sea levels and more frequent flooding and storm surges, alter housing values in a way that leads to gentrification. Objective To examine the climate gentrification following hurricane Katrina by (1) estimating the associations between flooding severity, ground elevation, and gentrification and (2) whether these relationships are modified by neighborhood level pre- and post-storm sociodemographic factors. Methods Lidar data collected in 2002 were used to determine elevation. Water gauge height of Lake Ponchartrain was used to estimate flood depth. Using census tracts as a proxy for neighborhoods, demographic, housing, and economic data from the 2000 decennial census and the 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates US Census records were used to determine census tracts considered eligible for gentrification (median income < 2000 Orleans Parish median income). A gentrification index was created using tract changes in education level, population above the poverty limit, and median household income. Proportional odds ordinal logistic regression was used with product terms to test for effect measure modification by sociodemographic factors. Results Census tracts eligible for gentrification in 2000 were 80.2% black. Median census tract flood depth was significantly lower in areas eligible to undergo gentrification (0.70 m vs. 1.03 m). Residents of gentrification-eligible tracts in 2000 were significantly more likely to be black, less educated, lower income, unemployed, and rent their home rather than own. In 2015 in these same eligible tracts, areas that underwent gentrification became significantly whiter, more educated, higher income, less unemployed, and more likely to live in a multi-unit dwelling. Gentrification was inversely associated with flood depth and directly associated with ground elevation in eligible tracts. Marginal effect modification was detected by the effect of pre-storm black race on the relationships of flood depth and elevation with gentrification. Conclusions Gentrification was strongly associated with higher ground elevation in New Orleans. These results provide evidence to support the idea of climate gentrification described in other low-elevation major metropolitan areas like Miami, FL. High elevation, low-income, demographically transitional areas in particular – that is areas that more closely resemble high-income area demographics, may be vulnerable to future climate gentrification.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change

Currently, little is known about the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range of California or other mountainous regions of the world. The purpose of this study was to determine whether small alpine peat lands called fens can be used as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge through time. Fens are sustained by groundwater discharge and are highly sensitive to changes in groundwater flow due to hydrologic disturbance including climate change. Seven fens in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range were studied over a 50-80 year period using historic aerial photography. In each aerial photograph, fen areas were identified as open lawn and partially treed areas that exhibited (1) dark brownish-green coloring or various shades of gray and black in black and white imagery and (2) mottling of colors and clustering of vegetation, which signified a distinct moss canopy with overlying clumped sedge vegetation. In addition to the aerial photography study, a climate analysis for the study sites was carried out using both measured data (U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry system) and modeled data (a downscaled version of the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) for the period from 1951 to 2010. Over the study period, the five fens in the Sierra Nevada were found to be decreasing between 10% and 16% in delineated area. The climate analysis revealed significant increases through time in annual mean minimum temperature (T min ) between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. In addition, April 1 snow water equivalent and snowpack longevity also decreased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. For the fens in the Cascade Range, there were no discernible changes in delineated area. At these sites, increases in T min occurred only within the past 20-25 years and decreases in snowpack longevity were more subtle. A conceptual model is presented, which illustrates that basic differences in hydrogeology of the Sierra Nevada vs. the Cascade Range may control the threshold at which changes in delineated fen areas are discernible. Overall, the results from this study show that fens in the Sierra Nevada have strong potential as whole ecosystem gauges for determining long-term changes in groundwater recharge under climate change. Due to either more moderate climate change and/or hydrogeological differences, fens in the southern Cascade Range currently do not appear to have the same utility. A greater sample size of fens in the Sierra Nevada is needed to confirm the general applicability of this method. In addition, future work needs to focus on integrating fen monitoring with geochemical and/or isotopic process-level studies in order to quantify changes in groundwater recharge identified using this new approach.

Journal of Hydrology↗