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USGS1995

Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California

Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in the Lucerne Valley groundwater basin, California

The Lucerne Valley is in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert and is about 75 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. The Lucerne Valley groundwater basin encompasses about 230 square miles and is separated from the Upper Mojave Valley groundwater basin by splays of the Helendale Fault. Since its settlement, groundwater has been the primary source of water for agricultural, industrial, municipal, and domestic uses. Groundwater withdrawal from pumping has exceeded the amount of water recharged to the basin, causing groundwater declines of more than 100 feet between 1917 and 2016 in the center of the basin. The continued withdrawal has resulted in an increase in pumping costs, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence near Lucerne Lake. Although the volume of pumping has declined in recent years, there is concern that new agricultural growth and limits on imported water will continue to strain the sustainability of the groundwater system. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the Mojave Water Agency to develop a better understanding of the Lucerne Valley hydrogeologic system and provide tools to help evaluate and manage the effects of future development in the Lucerne Valley. The objectives of this study were to (1) improve the understanding of the aquifer system, (2) improve the understanding of subsidence in the basin, and (3) incorporate the understanding into a groundwater-flow model that can be used to help manage the groundwater resources in the Lucerne Valley. The model developed for this study covers the period of 1942–2016 and can help evaluate various proposed water-management scenarios during different climatic and hydrologic conditions. The aquifer system consists of a shallow aquifer, a confining unit, and middle and lower aquifers. These layered water-bearing units were identified based on geologic units of the mostly unconsolidated sediments and hydrologic properties. These alluvial deposits consist of clay, silt, sand, and gravel; some places also contain clay and silty clay lacustrine deposits. Several faults act, at least in part, as barriers to groundwater flow on the eastern, southern, and western edges of the basin. Present-day natural recharge is primarily from the infiltration of runoff from the San Bernardino Mountains to the south; however, stable and radioactive isotopes show that groundwater from the middle of the Lucerne Valley was older than about 10,000 years and probably was recharged as infiltration from streams draining the mountains in the Mojave Desert to the north, which probably does not occur under present-day climatic conditions. The annual average natural recharge for 1942–2016, estimated by a Basin Characterization Model, was about 635 acre-feet per year; the average amount of treated wastewater effluent transferred to the Lucerne Valley for artificial recharge annually ranged from about 1,500 to 4,000 acre-feet per year during 1980–2016. Pumpage estimates for 1942–2016 ranged from about 3,000 acre-feet in 1942 to about 18,300 acre-feet in 1984. The total cumulative amount of groundwater removed from the basin by pumping between 1942 and 2016 was estimated to be about 700,000 acre-feet, which was about 10 times greater than the cumulative amount of recharge to the entire Lucerne Valley groundwater basin. Before groundwater development, the direction of groundwater flow was from the southern part of the basin northward to discharge areas near Lucerne Lake, where it discharged through springs along the Helendale Fault and by evapotranspiration. Since the early 1900s, groundwater-level declines have mostly eliminated the areas where natural discharge occurred and exceeded 100 feet in the middle of the basin between the early 1950s and mid-1990s, and as much as 25 feet near the margins from about the mid-1950s to 2000s. A decrease in the rate of pumping after the mid-1990s lessened the hydraulic stress on the middle and lower aquifers and enabled hydraulic heads in the middle of the basin to recover slightly as groundwater near the margins of the basin moved toward the pumping depression. Although trends in groundwater levels in the center of the basin have reversed since the mid-1990s, levels at the basin margins continue to decline as the movement of groundwater from the margins fills the pumping depression and gradually flattens the groundwater table throughout the basin. The long-term extraction of groundwater and associated dewatering of the fine-grained sediments present within the aquifer system has resulted in aquifer compaction and consequently land subsidence, primarily near Lucerne Lake. Analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data shows that almost 11 inches of land subsidence has occurred south of Lucerne Lake between April 1992 and November 2009; less subsidence occurred elsewhere in the basin during this period. This differential land subsidence has caused fissures and cracks in the ground surface, which have buckled the pavement and undercut roads in several locations. The Lucerne Valley Hydrologic Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater modeling software One Water Hydrologic Model to represent the hydrologic conditions and stresses during 1942–2016. The model has a uniform grid of approximately 92 acres per cell (2,000 feet by 2,000 feet) and has four layers representing the water-bearing units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicated that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 465,000 acre-feet from 1942 to 2016. The model simulated as much as 7.5 feet (90 inches; 2,286 millimeters) of aquifer compaction, which indicates the extensive fine-grained deposits and measured subsidence near Lucerne Lake.

California↗

USGS1999

Regional water-level changes for the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer in Iowa, 1975 to 1997

The Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer is one of the principal sources of ground water for industry and municipalities in Iowa. The 1998 Iowa Administrative Code Chapter 52.4(3) states that water levels in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer are not to decline more than 200 feet from the 1977 baseline. The potentiometric-surface map of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer, known locally as the Jordan aquifer, prepared by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources-Geological Survey Bureau and the U.S. Geological Survey in 1978 using water levels measured during the 1975 water year is considered the 1977 baseline. For this study, water levels measured during the 1997 water year were used to construct a potentiometric-surface map that was compared to the 1977 baseline to describe water-level changes. Since 1975, water levels have declined in two areas of central and eastern Iowa. The maximum measured water-level decline is 133 feet in Johnson County in eastern Iowa. The estimated maximum rate of decline is 6 feet per year in Johnson County. Results from a two-layer, ground-water flow model of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1990 were compared to selected measured 1997 water levels. The difference between the simulated water levels and the 1997 maximum measured water levels ranges from 0 to about 150 feet, but most differences are less than 25 feet. The comparison indicates that the model may help estimate future water levels in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer as an aid in managing the resource.

Iowa↗

USGS2022

Integration of vegetation classification with land cover mapping: Lessons from regional mapping efforts in the Americas

Aims : Natural resource management and biodiversity conservation rely on inventories of vegetation that span multiple management or political jurisdictions. However, while remote sensing data and analytical tools have enabled production of maps at increasing spatial resolution and reliability, there are limited examples where national or continental-scaled maps are produced to represent vegetation at high thematic detail. We illustrate two examples that have bridged the gap between traditional land cover mapping and modern vegetation classification. Study area : Our two case studies include national ( USA ) and continental (North and South America) vegetation and land cover mapping. These studies span conditions from subpolar to tropical latitudes of the Americas. Methods : Both case studies used a supervised modeling approach with the International Vegetation Classification ( IVC ) to produce maps that provide for greater thematic detail. Georeferenced locations for these vegetation types are used by machine learning algorithms to train a predictive model and generate a distribution map. Results : The USA LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project) case study illustrates how a history of vegetation-based classification and availability of key inputs can come together to generate standard map products covering more than 9.8 million km 2 that are unsurpassed anywhere in the world in terms of spatial and thematic resolution. That being said, it also remains clear that mapping at the thematic resolution of the IVC Group and finer resolution require very large and spatially balanced inputs of georeferenced samples. Even with extensive prior data collection efforts, these remain a key limitation. The NatureServe effort for the Americas - encompassing 22% of the global land surface - demonstrates methods and outputs suitable for worldwide application at continental scales. Conclusions : Continued collection of input data used in the case studies could enable mapping at these spatial and thematic resolutions around the globe.

Vegetation Classification and Survey↗

USGS2019

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗

USGS2012

Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long-term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist-accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density-impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub-optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non-stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade-offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2001

Flow and habitat effects on juvenile fish abundance in natural and altered flow regimes

Conserving biological resources native to large river systems increasingly depends on how flow-regulated segments of these rivers are managed. Improving management will require a better understanding of linkages between river biota and temporal variability of flow and instream habitat. However, few studies have quantified responses of native fish populations to multiyear (>2 yr) patterns of hydrologic or habitat variability in flow-regulated systems. To provide these data, we quantified young-of-year (YOY) fish abundance during four years in relation to hydrologic and habitat variability in two segments of the Tallapoosa River in the southeastern United States. One segment had an unregulated flow regime, whereas the other was flow-regulated by a peak-load generating hydropower dam. We sampled fishes annually and explored how continuously recorded flow data and physical habitat simulation models (PHABSIM) for spring (April-June) and summer (July-August) preceding each sample explained fish abundances. Patterns of YOY abundance in relation to habitat availability (median area) and habitat persistence (longest period with habitat area continuously above the long-term median area) differed between unregulated and flow-regulated sites. At the unregulated site, YOY abundances were most frequently correlated with availability of shallow-slow habitat in summer (10 species) and persistence of shallow-slow and shallow-fast habitat in spring (nine species). Additionally, abundances were negatively correlated with 1-h maximum flow in summer (five species). At the flow-regulated site, YOY abundances were more frequently correlated with persistence of shallow-water habitats (four species in spring; six species in summer) than with habitat availability or magnitude of flow extremes. The associations of YOY with habitat persistence at the flow-regulated site corresponded to the effects of flow regulation on habitat patterns. Flow regulation reduced median flows during spring and summer, which resulted in median availability of shallow-water habitats comparable to the unregulated site. However, habitat persistence was severely reduced by flow fluctuations resulting from pulsed water releases for peak-load power generation. Habitat persistence, comparable to levels in the unregulated site, only occurred during summer when low rainfall or other factors occasionally curtailed power generation. As a consequence, summer-spawning species numerically dominated the fish assemblage at the flow-regulated site; five of six spring-spawning species occurring at both study sites were significantly less abundant at the flow-regulated site. Persistence of native fishes in flow-regulated systems depends, in part, on the seasonal occurrence of stable habitat conditions that facilitate reproduction and YOY survival.

Alabama, Georgia↗

USGS2020

Feeding ecology of age-0 gar at Lake Texoma inferred from analysis of stable isotopes

Conservation and restoration of gar (Lepisosteidae) populations in North America are increasingly of interest to fisheries managers. Alligator Gar Atractosteus spatula are being stocked as age-0 fish in efforts to re-establish extirpated populations. However, gars are known to be highly cannibalistic in hatcheries, suggesting that age-0 Alligator Gar introduced into natural habitats may face predation pressures from other gar species, limiting the likelihood of released fish recruiting to the population. Furthermore, introduced age-0 gar may not have the proper prey resources for rapid growth that would facilitate recruitment to adulthood. Texoma Reservoir, located on the Oklahoma–Texas border, hosts four native gar species, including the Alligator Gar, whose population is supported by supplemental stocking of age-0 fingerlings. We investigated feeding by age-0 gar to obtain a baseline level of trophic ecology for this group of fishes, including the potential for poststocking cannibalism. Food webs were reconstructed via analysis of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopes using Bayesian mixing model approaches. Isotopic values for age-0 fish of all four gar species were similar. Invertebrates represented a large fraction of the diet for all gars, followed by Common Carp Cyprinus carpio and Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella . Competitive interactions among Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus , White Bass Morone chrysops , White Crappie Pomoxis annularis , and young gar may occur for invertebrates, shads Dorosoma spp., and Western Mosquitofish Gambusia affinis but are likely short-lived due to the rapid growth of age-0 gar after their transition to piscivory. Trophic position of age-0 Alligator Gar, Longnose Gar Lepisosteus osseus , and Spotted Gar Lepisosteus oculatus was positively related to TL, but this relationship was not observed for Shortnose Gar Lepisosteus platostomus . In Texoma Reservoir, the four native gar species, including stocked Alligator Gar, appear to have adequate food resources for recruitment, with little indication of within-family or interspecific predation. This suggests that stocked Alligator Gar quickly acclimated to their new environment.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS1998

Concepts for monitoring water quality in the Spokane River Basin, northern Idaho and eastern Washington

Numerous environmental studies have been conducted in the Spokane River Basin over the past several decades by government agencies, academic institutions, and environmental engineering firms. Most of these efforts have focused on the environmental effects of more than a century of silver, lead, and zinc mining and oreprocessing activities in the South Fork Coeur d'Alene River valley in northern Idaho. Several studies also have assessed the water quality and potential for eutrophication of Coeur d'Alene and Long Lakes and the Coeur d'Alene, St. Joe, and Spokane Rivers. Because past investigations often were limited in scope and employed different approaches and methods, an integrated understanding of hydrologic, water-quality, and aquatic biological conditions still is lacking for the basin as a whole. Substantial resources are being spent for water-quality and naturalresource management, and for mitigating the adverse environmental effects of past mining activities in the basin. A water-quality monitoring network, integrated with the decision-making processes associated with these efforts, could be of considerable value. The purpose of such a monitoring network is to produce high-quality information on which to base sound water-quality and natural-resource management decisions and to assess the effectiveness of those decisions. A streamflow- and water-quality monitoring infrastructure already exists in the Spokane River Basin. This infrastructure consists of 20 lake-stage and streamflow-gaging stations, representing specific drainages or subdrainages and, in many cases, specific stream reaches or subreaches. These gaging stations are operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), several of them in cooperation with State and Federal agencies and a private utility company. Extensive streamflow data are available, some dating from the late 1800s. Water-quality data are also available from recent USGS cooperative studies in the Coeur d'Alene Lake watershed. A nutrient load/lake response (eutrophication) model has been developed for Coeur d'Alene Lake. Hydraulic models for estimating streamflow through the low-gradient reaches of the Coeur d'Alene and St. Joe Rivers have been developed. Trace-element concentrations and distributions in sediments in the lower South Fork and main-stem Coeur d'Alene River flood plain and the bed of Coeur d'Alene Lake have been assessed. Trace-element transport models have been developed for the lower Coeur d'Alene River system; estimates of annual load are available from the early 1990's to the present (1998). The USGS is monitoring traceelement concentrations and transport at seven gaging stations in the lower Coeur d'Alene River system and upper Spokane River, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Fish and macroinvertebrate community assessment and tissue contaminant analyses at four Coeur d'Alene and St. Joe River gaging stations will begin in 1998, either as part of the Idaho Surface- Water Quality Ambient Monitoring Network operated by USGS in cooperation with the Idaho Division of Environmental Quality, or for the Northern Rockies Intermontane Basins (NROK) study of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Several gaging stations in the Spokane River Basin are being considered for routine sampling sites for the NROK NAWQA study. Several other sites also will be sampled for contaminants in bed sediment and fish tissue for the NROK study. Combined with appropriate sampling and data interpretation strategies, the existing USGS gaging-station network and data base could provide integrated water-quality information needed for sound environmental and resource-management decisions throughout the Spokane River Basin.

Idaho;Washington↗

USGS1982

Development and use of a habitat gradient model to evaluate wildlife habitat

Ecologists and wildlife managers are increasingly confronted with the problems of predicting the value of surface cover as wildlife habitat and developing management alternatives to offset wildlife values lost because of land-use change. These problems have become urgent and more acute because of increased demand for products from the land and diminished fiscal and manpower resources for obtaining meaningful environmental information for the decision maker. This paper describes a relatively rapid, simple, and quantitative process for evaluating the quality of an area as wildlife habitat.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na↗

USGS2010

Reactive solute-transport simulation of pre-mining metal concentrations in mine-impacted catchments: Redwell Basin, Colorado, USA

With the increased importance of water resources in the western United States and many areas worldwide, the remediation of impacts from historical mining becomes ever more important. A possible process of making decisions about remediation for a catchment might include identification of principal sources of metals in the catchment, classification of the sources as natural or anthropogenic, and simulations to evaluate different options for removal of anthropogenic sources. The application of this process is based on understanding the pre-mining conditions in the catchment, so that remediation goals appropriately correct for the impacts of mining. A field experiment in Redwell Basin, Colorado, provided a setting to demonstrate this process and to evaluate pre-mining concentrations through reactive solute-transport modeling. The field experiment provided spatially detailed stream and inflow samples that were the basis for model calibration. Only two inflows along the study reach were affected by mining or mine exploration. To simulate pre-mining conditions, these inflows were removed from the model calibration; the result was a simulation of the stream with all the non-mining inputs. At a point downstream from the two mining inflows, the simulated pre-mining pH would have been 5.1, up from the measured 3.8. At the higher pH, the streambed likely would have been coated with Al precipitate. Simulated pre-mining Zn and Cu would have been 1300 µg/L and 18 µg/L, lower than the measured concentrations of 3340 and 93 µg/L. Despite these changes, the pre-mining conditions would not have met aquatic-life standards.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2011

Biomarker chemistry and flux quantification methods for natural petroleum seeps and produced oils, offshore southern California

Sustained, natural oil seepage from the seafloor is common off southern California, and is of great interest to resource managers, who are tasked with distinguishing natural from anthropogenic oil sources. The major purpose of this study was to build upon the work previously funded by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that has refined the oil-fingerprinting process to enable differentiation of the highly similar Monterey Formation oils from Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) production and adjacent natural seeps. In these initial studies, biomarker and stable carbon isotope ratios were used to infer the age, lithology, organic-matter input, and depositional environment of the source rocks for 388 samples of produced crude oil, seep oil, and tarballs mainly from coastal California. The analysis resulted in a predictive model of oil source families that could be applied to samples of unknown origin.

California↗

USGS2010

Kinetic analysis of strontium and potassium sorption onto sands and gravels in a natural channel

A kinetic, first-order mass transfer model was used to describe the sorption of strontium onto sand- and gravel-sized streambed sediments. Rate parameters, empirically determined for strontium, allowed for the prediction of potassium sorption with moderate success. The model parameters varied significantly with particle size. The sorption data were collected during an experimental injection of several elements into a small mountain pool-and-riffle stream. The sorption process onto sand- and gravel-sized sediment was relatively slow compared to changes in the dissolved concentrations.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2007

A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS1978

Preliminary hydrologic budget of the sand-and-gravel aquifer under unstressed conditions: with a section on water-quality monitoring, Pensacola, Florida

The sand-and-gravel aquifer is the only freshwater aquifer in southern Escambia County, Fla. Problems related to the development of the aquifer include sustained yield, contamination, and saltwater intrusion. A digital model was applied to the sand-and-gravel aquifer in central and southern Escambia County treating the aquifer 's 'main producing zone ' as a discrete, leaky, confined aquifer. Under conditions of no pumping, most values for the final-head matrix agreed with assumed values within 4 feet in the area of principal interest. Discharge per unit land area was 1.04 cubic feet per second per square mile, in close agreement with the base runoff streams maintained by the aquifer. Total natural aquifer discharge within the area of principal interest determined by the model was 159 million gallons per day. The applicability of the present non-unique calibration for predicting the effects of pumping is questionable; a multilayered model may be required. Effluent infiltrating from holding lagoons for spray irrigation at the Scenic Hills Sewage Plant may have affected the quality of local perched ground water in the sand-and-gravel aquifer. Observation wells drilled near areas of heavy pumping around Bayou Chico indicated no saltwater intrusion. (Woodard-USGS)

Florida↗

USGS2026

Disease, drought, and warming: A triple threat to a declining high-elevation amphibian

Managing species in an uncertain future is a reality for natural resource decision makers. Climate change is expected to exacerbate threats such as habitat loss and disease, and cause phenological mismatches, but there is uncertainty in the magnitude of these effects. Amphibians are among the most threatened taxa on earth, and most species in North America are uniquely tied to water availability for breeding, larval development, thermal refugia, and food availability. Changes in water availability and temperature may result in phenological mismatches with one or more of these processes. Thus, quantifying the dependency of amphibians to water on the landscape is critical to understanding how species may respond, as well as understanding the interplay with other threats, such as disease. We developed a dynamic co-occurrence occupancy model to explore the effects of climate change on the breeding occurrence of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , Bd) in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM). We derived novel covariates to test hypotheses related to multi-generational impacts of climate on the dynamics of both boreal toad breeding and Bd. We report estimates of current (2001–2019) and future (2055–2069) occupancy under a range of plausible climate scenarios. The probability of boreal toad breeding occurrence at a site in the SRM declined > 40% from 2001 to 2019, and further declines are likely under future scenarios, particularly as active season length increases. To help integrate this information into management, we developed a web-based decision support tool to summarize predicted future hydrological and occupancy conditions.

Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming↗