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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Interpreting and reporting 40Ar/39Ar geochronologic data

The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating method is among the most versatile of geochronometers, having the potential to date a broad variety of K-bearing materials spanning from the time of Earth’s formation into the historical realm. Measurements using modern noble-gas mass spectrometers are now producing 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates with analytical uncertainties of ∼0.1%, thereby providing precise time constraints for a wide range of geologic and extraterrestrial processes. Analyses of increasingly smaller subsamples have revealed age dispersion in many materials, including some minerals used as neutron fluence monitors. Accordingly, interpretive strategies are evolving to address observed dispersion in dates from a single sample. Moreover, inferring a geologically meaningful “age” from a measured “date” or set of dates is dependent on the geological problem being addressed and the salient assumptions associated with each set of data. We highlight requirements for collateral information that will better constrain the interpretation of 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data sets, including those associated with single-crystal fusion analyses, incremental heating experiments, and in situ analyses of microsampled domains. To ensure the utility and viability of published results, we emphasize previous recommendations for reporting 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data and the related essential metadata, with the amendment that data conform to evolving standards of being findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) by both humans and computers. Our examples provide guidance for the presentation and interpretation of 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates to maximize their interdisciplinary usage, reproducibility, and longevity.

GSA Bulletin↗

USGS2002

Magnitude estimates of two large aftershocks of the 16 December 1811 New Madrid earthquake

The three principal New Madrid mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for either the mainshocks or the aftershocks, available historical accounts do provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large events. In this article we investigate two of the largest aftershocks: one near dawn following the first mainshock on 16 December 1811, and one near midday on 17 December 1811. We reinterpret original felt reports to obtain a set of 48 and 20 modified Mercalli intensity values of the two aftershocks, respectively. For the dawn aftershock, we infer a Mw of approximately 7.0 based on a comparison of its intensities with those of the smallest New Madrid mainshock. Based on a detailed account that appears to describe near-field ground motions, we further propose a new fault rupture scenario for the dawn aftershock. We suggest that the aftershock had a thrust mechanism and occurred on a southeastern limb of the Reelfoot fault. For the 17 December 1811 aftershock, we infer a M W of approximately 6.1 ± 0.2 . This value is determined using the method of Bakun et al. (2002), which is based on a new calibration of intensity versus distance for earthquakes in central and eastern North America. The location of this event is not well constrained, but the available accounts suggest an epicenter beyond the southern end of the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee↗

USGS2000

The northeastern states' waterfowl breeding population survey

Efforts to tailor waterfowl hunting regulations to conditions in the Atlantic Flyway have been hampered by lack of information on local breeding populations. The Atlantic Flyway Council's technical section voted at its 1987 winter meeting (Atlantic Flyway Council Technical Section, Toronto, Canada) to establish a regional waterfowl breeding survey. Consequently, an annual survey was started in 1989 and further refined in 1993 using results from 1989 to 1992. During 1993-1997, annual spring surveys of more than 1,450 randomly selected 1-km2 plots, stratified by physiographic strata, were conducted in the Atlantic Flyway from New Hampshire to Virginia to estimate breeding populations of mallards (Arias platyrhynchos), American black ducks (A. rubripes), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis). Ground crews systematically surveyed all potential waterfowl habitat for these species in each plot. The adjusted mean mallard pair estimate over the 5-year period was 375,962 (range 310,299-415,182, mean SE 25,761) for the region surveyed. The estimate for black duck pairs was 31,1 54 (range 27,164'37,521, mean SE 4,978), and for wood duck pairs it was 240,473 (range 218,959-281,916, mean SE 25,408). Total number of Canada geese increased from 526,663 in 1993 to 892,278 in 1997. Population estimates for other species had unacceptably large standard errors.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2022

Late Cretaceous time-transgressive onset of Laramide arch exhumation and basin subsidence across northern Arizona−New Mexico, USA, and the role of a dehydrating Farallon flat slab

Spatiotemporal constraints for Late Cretaceous tectonism across the Colorado Plateau and southern Rocky Mountains (northern Arizona−New Mexico, USA) are interpreted in regards to Laramide orogenic mechanisms. Onset of Laramide arch development is estimated from cooling recorded in representative thermochronologic samples in a three-step process of initial forward models, secondary HeFTy inverse models with informed constraint boxes, and a custom script to statistically estimate timing of rapid cooling from inverse model results. Onset of Laramide basin development is interpreted from increased rates of tectonic subsidence. Onset estimates are compared to published estimates for Laramide timing, and together suggest tectonism commenced ca. 90 Ma in northwestern Arizona and progressed eastward with later onset in north-central New Mexico by ca. 75−70 Ma. The interpreted sweep of onset progressed at a rate of ∼50 km/m.y. and was approximately half the 100−150 km/m.y. rate estimated for Late Cretaceous Farallon-North America convergence during the same timeframe. Previous suggestions that the Laramide tectonic front progressed at a rate similar to convergence via basal traction are not supported by our results. We thereby suggest that (1) a plate margin end load established far field compression and that (2) sequential Laramide-style strain was facilitated by progressive weakening of North American lithosphere from the dehydrating Farallon flat slab. Results are compared to models of sweeping tectonism and magmatism in other parts of the Laramide foreland. Discussions of the utility of the custom script and the potential for stratigraphic constraints to represent only minimum onset estimates are also presented.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2021

The impact of 3D finite‐fault information on ground‐motion forecasting for earthquake early warning

We identify aspects of finite‐source parameterization that strongly affect the accuracy of estimated ground motion for earthquake early warning (EEW). EEW systems aim to alert users to impending shaking before it reaches them. The U.S. West Coast EEW system, ShakeAlert, currently uses two algorithms based on seismic data to characterize the earthquake’s location, magnitude, and origin time, treating it as a point or line source. From this information, ShakeAlert calculates shaking intensity and alerts locations where shaking estimates exceed a threshold. Several geodetic EEW algorithms under development would provide 3D finite‐fault information. We investigate conditions under which this information produces sufficiently better intensity estimates to potentially improve alerting. Using scenario crustal and subduction interface sources, we (1) identify the most influential source geometry parameters for an EEW algorithm’s shaking forecast, and (2) assess the intensity alert thresholds and magnitude ranges for which more detailed source characterization affects alert accuracy. We find that alert regions determined using 3D‐source representations of correct magnitude and faulting mechanism are generally more accurate than those obtained using line sources. If a line‐source representation is used and magnitude is calculated from the estimated length, then incorrect length estimates significantly degrade alert region accuracy. In detail, the value of 3D‐source characterization depends on the user’s chosen alert threshold, tectonic regime, and faulting style. For the suite of source models we tested, the error in shaking intensity introduced by incorrect geometry could reach levels comparable to the intrinsic uncertainty in ground‐motion calculations (e.g., 0.5–1.3 modified Mercalli intensity [MMI] units for MMI 4.5) but, especially for crustal sources, was often less. For subduction interface sources, 3D representations substantially improved alert area accuracy compared to line sources, and incorrect geometry parameters were more likely to cause error in calculated shaking intensity that exceeded uncertainties.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2007

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 1800 years

This is the second article presenting evidence of the occurrence and timing of paleoearthquakes on the southern Hayward fault as interpreted from trenches excavated within a sag pond at the Tyson's Lagoon site in Fremont, California. We use the information to estimate the mean value and aperiodicity of the fault's recurrence interval (RI): two fundamental parameters for estimation of regional seismic hazard. An earlier article documented the four most recent earthquakes, including the historic 1868 earthquake. In this article we present evidence for at least seven earlier paleoruptures since about A.D. 170. We document these events with evidence for ground rupture, such as the presence of blocky colluvium at the base of the main trace fault scarp, and by corroborating evidence such as simultaneous liquefaction or an increase in deformation immediately below event horizons. The mean RI is 170 ?? 82 yr (1??, standard deviation of the sample), aperiodicity is 0.48, and individual intervals may be expected to range from 30 to 370 yr (95.4% confidence). The mean RI is consistent with the recurrence model of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003) (mean, 161 yr; range, 99 yr [2.5%]; 283 yr [97.5%]). We note that the mean RI for the five most recent events may have been only 138 ?? 58 yr (1??). Hypothesis tests for the shorter RI do not demonstrate that any recent acceleration has occurred compared to the earlier period or the entire 1800-yr record, principally because of inherent uncertainties of the event ages.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1982

Hydrology of the surficial aquifer in the Floyd River Basin, Iowa

The Floyd River basin was studied to provide water-resources Information for a typical surficial aquifer in northwest Iowa. Data collection included test drilling, water-level measurements, and chemical analyses of surface and ground water. The Floyd River basin drains 961 square miles of highly dissected to gently rolling topography. Major streams generally are flanked by flood plains underlain by uncemented sand and-gravel deposits. Most of the basin is directly underlain by glacial drift of Pleistocene age which is In turn underlain by rocks of Cretaceous age. Sand-and-gravel deposits underlying the major flood plains and in buried bedrock channels within the drift comprise the surficial aquifer. The surficial aquifer ranges from 10 to 40 feet In thickness and averages about 20 feet thick. Both unconfined and confined conditions occur in the aquifer and water levels range from 2 to 55 feet below land surface. An aquifer test conducted in the surficial aquifer where it is about 25 feet thick and is confined by an overlying low permeability bed Indicated an average hydraulic conductivity of 383 feet per day and a storage coefficient of 0.0001. The well was pumped at 650 gallons per minute for 43 hours. An observation well about 70 feet from the pumping well had a maximum drawdown of about 10 feet.

Iowa↗

USGS2024

Advanced quantitative precipitation information: Improving monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area. As an experimental system, AQPI leverages more than a decade of research, innovation, and implementation of a statewide, state-of-the-art network of observations, and development of the next generation of weather and coastal forecast models. AQPI was developed as a prototype in response to requests from the water management community for improved information on precipitation, riverine, and coastal conditions to inform their decision-making processes. Observation of precipitation in the complex Bay Area landscape of California’s coastal mountain ranges is known to be a challenging problem. But, with new advanced radar network techniques, AQPI is helping fill an important observational gap for this highly populated and vulnerable metropolitan area. The prototype AQPI system consists of improved weather radar data for precipitation estimation; additional surface measurements of precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture; and a suite of integrated forecast modeling systems to improve situational awareness about current and future water conditions from sky to sea. Together these tools will help improve emergency preparedness and public response to prevent loss of life and destruction of property during extreme storms accompanied by heavy precipitation and high coastal water levels—especially high-moisture laden atmospheric rivers. The Bay Area AQPI system could potentially be replicated in other urban regions in California, the United States, and worldwide.

California↗

USGS2020

Improving paleoseismic earthquake magnitude estimates with rupture length information: Application to the Puget Lowland, Washington State, U.S.A.

Both earthquake displacement and rupture length correlate with magnitude, and therefore observations of each from past earthquakes can be used to estimate the magnitude of those earthquakes in the absence of instrumental records. We extend the Bayesian inversion method of Biasi and Weldon (2006), which estimates paleoearthquake magnitude from displacement observations, to incorporate both rupture length and surface displacement measurements into the magnitude inversion. We then use this method on 27 late Pleistocene to Holocene paleoearthquakes in the Puget Lowland region of Washington. Observations of (typically vertical) fault separation per event range from 0.6 to 7 m, implying net displacement per event of up to 10 ± 4 m for the largest event. Rupture lengths are estimated to vary between the smallest contiguous mapped scarps to the full extent of the faults mapped from geology and geophysical observations. Although a few of the ruptures may be longer than 150 km, the ruptures have a median of 53 km, indicating that earthquakes in the Puget Lowland have relatively high displacement to length ratios. By considering both datasets, we find that all events were between M 6.3 and 7.5, generally consistent with the expected seismicity from the USGS National Seismic Hazard Map for the region. The simultaneous use of both length and displacement data in the magnitude inversion decreases both the estimated earthquake magnitudes and the uncertainty. The magnitude reduction in particular is due to the relatively short rupture lengths possible for Puget Lowland faults. This implies a decrease in the seismic hazard (relative to a displacement-only assessment) to a highly populated and rapidly urbanizing region.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Geologic models underpinning the 2018 US Geological Survey assessment of hydrocarbon resources in the Eagle Ford Group and associated Cenomanian–Turonian strata, United States Gulf Coast, Texas

The availability of new geologic and production data has greatly increased since 2010, when the US Geological Survey (USGS) last assessed undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in the Cenomanian–Turonian (CT) Eagle Ford Group (EFG) across Texas. This new information facilitated an updated assessment of undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources in the Eagle Ford and associated CT strata. Literature and USGS research data were used to build the geologic models for the assessment units (AUs). The USGS defined six continuous AUs within the EFG: (1) Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Oil, (2) Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Gas, (3) Submarine Plateau-Karnes Trough Continuous Oil, (4) Submarine Plateau-Karnes Trough Continuous Gas, (5) CT Mudstone Continuous Oil, and (6) CT Mudstone Continuous Gas. An additional AU, the CT Slope Continuous Gas AU, was defined but not quantitatively assessed. The boundaries of these AUs were defined by thickness, lithofacies, thermal maturity, regional geology, and the spatial distribution of productive fairways. The resulting total mean estimates for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources for these six AUs are 8.5 billion bbl of oil and 66 trillion ft 3 of gas. These results for both oil and gas resources are within the top five volumes of previously assessed continuous accumulations in the United States and attest to the importance of the EFG and associated CT strata as a significant source of petroleum well into the future.

Texas↗

USGS2018

Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, part 1: Methodology and overall results

We have produced a large set of broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by combining synthetic seismograms derived from 3D finite‐difference simulations ( ⁠≤1 Hz⁠ ) with finite‐source, stochastic synthetics ( ⁠≥1 Hz⁠ ). We used a compound rupture model consisting of high stress drop M w 8 subevents superimposed on large, shallower slip with long‐slip duration, informed by observations of the M w 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, and M w 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquakes. Thirty 3D simulations were run, considering a variety of rupture parameters, to determine the range of expected ground motions. For sites not in sedimentary basins, the spectral accelerations of the synthetics are similar to the BC Hydro ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for periods of 0.1–6 s, but exceed them at periods greater than 6 s. Response spectra from the synthetics at sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins show large amplifications of factors of 2–5 at periods of 1–10 s. This basin amplification is substantially larger than that found for crustal earthquakes in the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 (NGA‐West2) GMPEs. Basin amplification is caused by basin‐edge generated surface waves and by amplification and focusing of S waves and surface waves by the 3D basin structure. The synthetic seismograms show effective average durations of strong motions of about 70 s for coastal sites, increasing to about 120 s at 200 km distance. We find that the interevent and intraevent standard deviations of the spectral amplitudes of the synthetics are larger for sites closer to the rupture, because they are more sensitive to the location of subevents and rupture directivity.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS1988

Limestone and chert in tectonic blocks from the Esk Head subterrane, South Island, New Zealand

The Esk Head subterrane is a continuous belt, generally 10-20 km wide, of tectonic mélange and broken formation on the South Island of New Zealand. This subterrane separates older and younger parts of the Torlesse terrane which is an extensive accretionary prism composed mostly of quartzo-feldspathic, submarine-fan deposits ranging from Permian to Early Cretaceous in age. The Torlesse is the most Pacific-ward of several Permian and Mesozoic accreted terranes in New Zealand that record tectonic amalgamation and ultimate accretion against the Pacific-facing Gondwana margin. The Esk Head subterrane of the Torlesse is especially informative because it includes within it conspicuous tectonic blocks of submarine basalt and a variety of basalt-associated seamount and sea-floor limestones and cherty rocks thought to be representative of the subducted plate. Limestones in tectonic blocks are of Late Triassic and probably Jurassic ages and include (1) submarine-cemented, pelagic-bivalve, geopetal packstone-grainstone; (2) brachiopod-bryozoan encrinite; and (3) radiolarian, pelagic lime mudstone. Most of the Triassic blocks have been dated using conodonts which have remarkably low color alteration index (CAI) values (<1.5). An incomplete sampling of cherts in tectonic blocks and from Holocene gravels derived from the Esk Head subterrane yields radiolarian-based ages of Late Triassic, Early Jurassic, Middle Jurassic, and Late Jurassic. Paleogeographic inferences drawn from megafossils, bioclasts, and radiolarians, as well as from carbonate cements, indicate deposition of the oceanic sedimentary rocks at paleolatitudes somewhat lower than that of the New Zealand part of the Gondwana margin, but higher than paleoequatorial latitudes. These oceanic sediments and their basaltic substrates were evidently emplaced in the Torlesse accretionary prism following off-scraping from an extensive subducting oceanic plate, probably the Phoenix plate, which was obliquely convergent with the northwest-trending Gondwana margin during Late Jurassic and/or Early Cretaceous time.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2025

Informing adaptive management to reduce ungulate aggregations: A case study involving winter feeding of elk

In the United States, wildlife managers are entrusted with preserving culturally and economically important ungulate populations in the face of the ongoing spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established an adaptive management plan to reduce the reliance of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) on supplemental winter feeding on the National Elk Refuge. The end goal of reducing the unnaturally high aggregation of elk during the winter is to mitigate the threat of disease outbreaks and to meet the objectives of sustainable populations of elk on the refuge. In this case study, we evaluated 6 years (2017–2022) of data from GPS-collared elk to determine the efficacy of shortening the length of the annual feeding period on the refuge to reduce elk aggregation. We measured aggregation using proximity rates, based on pairwise interactions over time, in both raw form as an index as well as predicted proximity as a function of other abiotic influences. We created a new R package, wildagg , to help with the process of computing the metrics from our study and to increase reproducibility in the future. Aggregation declined in years with less feeding on the refuge according to raw aggregation metrics when examined in isolation and dependent on the baseline feeding year used for comparison. However, accounting for abiotic factors while modeling proximity rates suggested in some years the decision to shorten the feeding period had less influence on aggregation than predicted. Our results underscore the complexity of measuring management outcomes and the usefulness of multiple approaches to evaluation.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Finite‐fault Bayesian inversion of teleseismic body waves

Inverting geophysical data has provided fundamental information about the behavior of earthquake rupture. However, inferring kinematic source model parameters for finite‐fault ruptures is an intrinsically underdetermined problem (the problem of nonuniqueness), because we are restricted to finite noisy observations. Although many studies use least‐squares techniques to make the finite‐fault problem tractable, these methods generally lack the ability to apply non‐Gaussian error analysis and the imposition of nonlinear constraints. However, the Bayesian approach can be employed to find a Gaussian or non‐Gaussian distribution of all probable model parameters, while utilizing nonlinear constraints. We present case studies to quantify the resolving power and associated uncertainties using only teleseismic body waves in a Bayesian framework to infer the slip history for a synthetic case and two earthquakes: the 2011 M w 7.1 Van, east Turkey, earthquake and the 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, Baja California, earthquake. In implementing the Bayesian method, we further present two distinct solutions to investigate the uncertainties by performing the inversion with and without velocity structure perturbations. We find that the posterior ensemble becomes broader when including velocity structure variability and introduces a spatial smearing of slip. Using the Bayesian framework solely on teleseismic body waves, we find rake is poorly constrained by the observations and rise time is poorly resolved when slip amplitude is low.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Long-term afterslip of the M6.0, 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake—Implications for forecasting amount and duration of afterslip on other major creeping faults

We present the longest record of surface afterslip on a continental strike‐slip fault for the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, from which we can derive critical information about the duration and predictability of afterslip relevant to urban displacement hazard applications. Surface slip associated with this event occurred entirely postseismically along the interseismically creeping (0.6–1.5 cm/yr) main trace of the San Andreas fault. Using the first year of afterslip data, the program AFTER correctly predicted the cumulative surface afterslip (maximum ∼35 cm) eventually attained. By 1 yr postearthquake, observed afterslip had accumulated to only ∼74% of its modeled final value u f in units of length. The 6‐yr data suggested final slip would be reached everywhere by ∼6–12 yrs. Parkfield’s afterslip lasted much longer (∼6–12 yrs) than afterslip following a 2014 M 6.0 event in Napa, California, where no interseismic creep was known, and its afterslip neared completion (∼97% of u f ) by 1 yr. The uncertainty in u f for the Napa event fell to ≤2 cm in only three months, versus in 2 yrs for the Parkfield event, mostly because duration of the power‐law stage of afterslip at Parkfield is much longer, ∼1000 (493–1666) days versus ∼100 (35–421) days for Napa. Because the urban Hayward fault near San Francisco, California, like the Parkfield section, exhibits interseismic creep in a similar geological regime, significant afterslip might last for up to a decade following an anticipated M ≥6.7 earthquake, potentially delaying postearthquake recovery.

California↗

USGS2013

Methods to estimate distribution and range extent of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The distribution of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population has expanded into areas unoccupied since the early 20th century. Up-to-date information on the area and extent of this distribution is crucial for federal, state, and tribal wildlife and land managers to make informed decisions regarding grizzly bear management. The most recent estimate of grizzly bear distribution (2004) utilized fixed-kernel density estimators to describe distribution. This method was complex and computationally time consuming and excluded observations of unmarked bears. Our objective was to develop a technique to estimate grizzly bear distribution that would allow for the use of all verified grizzly bear location data, as well as provide the simplicity to be updated more frequently. We placed all verified grizzly bear locations from all sources from 1990 to 2004 and 1990 to 2010 onto a 3-km × 3-km grid and used zonal analysis and ordinary kriging to develop a predicted surface of grizzly bear distribution. We compared the area and extent of the 2004 kriging surface with the previous 2004 effort and evaluated changes in grizzly bear distribution from 2004 to 2010. The 2004 kriging surface was 2.4% smaller than the previous fixed-kernel estimate, but more closely represented the data. Grizzly bear distribution increased 38.3% from 2004 to 2010, with most expansion in the northern and southern regions of the range. This technique can be used to provide a current estimate of grizzly bear distribution for management and conservation applications.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2014

Processes of arroyo filling in northern New Mexico, USA

We documented arroyo evolution at the tree, trench, and arroyo scales along the lower Rio Puerco and Chaco Wash in northern New Mexico, USA. We excavated 29 buried living woody plants and used burial signatures in their annual rings to date stratigraphy in four trenches across the arroyos. Then, we reconstructed the history of arroyo evolution by combining trench data with arroyo-scale information from aerial imagery, light detection and ranging (LiDAR), longitudinal profiles, and repeat surveys of cross sections. Burial signatures in annual rings of salt cedar and willow dated sedimentary beds greater than 30 cm thick with annual precision. Along both arroyos, incision occurred until the 1930s in association with extreme high flows, and subsequent filling involved vegetation development, channel narrowing, increased sinuosity, and finally vertical aggradation. A strongly depositional sediment transport regime interacted with floodplain shrubs to produce a characteristic narrow, trapezoidal channel. The 55 km study reach along the Rio Puerco demonstrated upstream progression of arroyo widening and filling, but not of arroyo incision, channel narrowing, or floodplain vegetation development. We conclude that the occurrence of upstream progression within large basins like the Rio Puerco makes precise synchrony across basins impossible. Arroyo wall retreat is now mostly limited to locations where meanders impinge on the arroyo wall, forming hairpin bends, for which entry to and exit from the wall are stationary. Average annual sediment storage within the Rio Puerco study reach between 1955 and 2005 was 4.8 × 10 5 t/yr, 16% of the average annual suspended sediment yield, and 24% of the long-term bedrock denudation rate. At this rate, the arroyo would fill in 310 yr.

New Mexico↗