USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climatic Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources

Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

Conference Paper↗

Palynological evidence for late miocene, pliocene and early pleistocene climate changes in the middle U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain

Palynomorph assemblages from eight geologic formations in the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, ranging in age from latest Miocene to Early Pleistocene, have been interpreted in terms of terrestrial paleoclimates. The data suggest that a warm-temperate to subtropical climate, warmer than at present, prevailed at the close of the Miocene and the beginning of the Pliocene. At that time, there was little or no temperature gradient within the study area (36°30′ to 39°N). This warm period was followed by a warm-temperate interval in Virginia and North Carolina, with temperatures probably not very different from those of today, although a slight warming trend probably occurred during the deposition of the Colerain Beach Member of the Chowan River Formation. A definite cool interval is indicated by the presence of spruce pollen in the Bacons Castle Formation of Virginia. This interval is interpreted to have begun about 2.3–2.4 Ma, or possibly slightly later, simultaneous with the cooling that has been recorded in deep-sea cores of the North Atlantic Ocean, and in the pre-Tiglian of western Europe. This was followed by a warmer-than-present period that may be correlated with the Tiglian of the latest Pliocene. Finally, palynological data from the Cape May Formation of New Jersey suggest that a warm-temperate (warmer than at present) climate prevailed during the Early Pleistocene.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, Vi↗

Linking climate change and health outcomes: Examining the relationship between temperature, precipitation and birth weight in Africa

This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status.

Global Environmental Change↗

Uncertainties in forecasting the response of polar bears to global climate change

Several sources of uncertainty affect how precisely the future status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) can be forecasted. Foremost are unknowns about the future levels of global greenhouse gas emissions, which could range from an unabated increase to an aggressively mitigated reduction. Uncertainties also arise because different climate models project different amounts and rates of future warming (and sea ice loss)—even for the same emission scenario. There are also uncertainties about how global warming could affect the Arctic Ocean’s food web, so even if climate models project the presence of sea ice in the future, the availability of polar bear prey is not guaranteed. Under a worst-case emission scenario in which rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated to century’s end, the uncertainties about polar bear status center on a potential for extinction. If the species were to persist, it would likely be restricted to a high-latitude refugium in northern Canada and Greenland—assuming a food web also existed with enough accessible prey to fuel weight gains for surviving onshore during the most extreme years of summer ice melt. On the other hand, if emissions were to be aggressively mitigated at the levels proposed in the Paris Climate Agreement, healthy polar bear populations would probably continue to occupy all but the most southern areas of their contemporary summer range. While polar bears have survived previous warming phases—which indicate some resiliency to the loss of sea ice habitat—what is certain is that the present pace of warming is unprecedented and will increasingly expose polar bears to historically novel stressors.

Book chapter↗

The increasing wildfire and post-fire debris-flow threat in western USA, and implications for consequences of climate change

In southern California and the intermountain west of the USA, debris flows generated from recently-burned basins pose significant hazards. Increases in the frequency and size of wildfires throughout the western USA can be attributed to increases in the number of fire ignitions, fire suppression practices, and climatic influences. Increased urbanization throughout the western USA, combined with the increased wildfire magnitude and frequency, carries with it the increased threat of subsequent debris-flow occurrence. Differences between rainfall thresholds and empirical debris-flow susceptibility models for southern California and the intermountain west indicate a strong influence of climatic and geologic settings on post-fire debris-flow potential. The linkages between wildfires, debris-flow occurrence, and global warming suggests that the experiences in the western United States are highly likely to be duplicated in many other parts of the world, and necessitate hazard assessment tools that are specific to local climates and physiographies.

Book chapter↗

The state of the world’s mangroves in the 21st century under climate change

Concerted mangrove research and rehabilitation efforts over the last several decades have prompted a better understanding of the important ecosystem attributes worthy of protection and a better conservation ethic toward mangrove wetlands globally. While mangroves continue to be degraded and lost in specific regions, conservation initiatives, rehabilitation efforts, natural regeneration, and climate range expansion have promoted gains in other areas, ultimately serving to curb the high mangrove habitat loss statistics from the doom and gloom of the 1980s. We highlight those trends in this article and introduce this special issue of Hydrobiologia dedicated to the important and recurring Mangrove and Macrobenthos Meeting. This collection of papers represents studies presented at the fourth such meeting (MMM4) held in St. Augustine, Florida, USA, on July 18–22, 2016. Our intent is to provide a balanced message about the global state of mangrove wetlands by describing recent reductions in net mangrove area losses and highlighting primary research studies presented at MMM4 through a collection of papers. These papers serve not only to highlight on-going global research advancements, but also provide an overview of the vast amount of data on mangrove ecosystem ecology, biology and rehabilitation that emphasizes the uniqueness of the mangrove community.

Hydrobiologia↗

Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets ( 14 C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

Alaska↗

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum . We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases↗

Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

Climate change and the Rocky Mountains

Rural landscapes in the Andes are characterized by an impressive diversity of natural environments and by multiple resource assets. This is particularly the case in the tropical realm where the ecological altitudinal zones of the tierra caliente, the tierra templada, the tierra fria and the tierra helada offer a remarkable range of agricultural potential. This is complemented by a multitude of topographic, hydrographic and climatic niches. The landscape is further overlaid by a cultural mosaic and by the recent impact of political ecology parameters. These agricultural ‘archipelagos’ and ‘overlapping patchworks’ (Zimmerer 1999) of human utilization also represent fragile and potentially vulnerable regions exposed to environmental risks and to socioeconomic or political threats. The external natural and human stimulators or stressors affecting the environment and people are complemented by new challenges and changes within the rural societies. Thus, farming and human settlement in the Andes have millennia tradition of an ‘open’ rural system, constantly adapting to an array of changing environmental, political, cultural, social and economic conditions (Stadel 2003b, Stadel 2008).

Rocky Mountains↗

Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change

The prairie pothole region (PPR) lies in the heart of North America and contains millions of glacially formed, depressional wetlands embedded in a landscape matrix of natural grassland and agriculture. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and produce 50% to 80% of the continent's ducks. We explored the broad spatial and temporal patterns across the PPR between climate and wetland water levels and vegetation by applying a wetland simulation model (WETSIM) to 18 stations with 95-year weather records. Simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the center of the PPR (the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan) to the wetter eastern and northern fringes, areas currently less productive or where most wetlands have been drained. Unless these wetlands are protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl against future climate warming. WETSIM can assist wetland managers in allocating restoration dollars in an uncertain climate future.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, Nebra↗

Southeast

The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. While some climate change impacts, such as sea level rise and extreme downpours, are being acutely felt now, others, like increasing exposure to dangerous high temperatures, humidity, and new local diseases, are expected to become more significant in the coming decades. While all regional residents and communities are potentially at risk for some impacts, some communities or populations are at greater risk due to their locations, services available to them, and economic situations. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Trends towards a more urbanized and denser Southeast are expected to continue, creating new climate vulnerabilities. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors, and the major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Infrastructure related to drinking water and wastewater treatment also has the potential to be compromised by climate-related events. Increases in extreme rainfall events and high tide coastal floods due to future climate change will impact the quality of life of permanent residents as well as tourists visiting the low-lying and coastal regions of the Southeast. Sea level rise is contributing to increased coastal flooding in the Southeast, and high tide flooding already poses daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the region. There have been numerous instances of intense rainfall events that have had devastating impacts on inland communities in recent years. The ecological resources that people depend on for livelihoods, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of coastal, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems to tidal saline habitats. Reductions in the frequency and intensity of cold winter temperature extremes are already allowing tropical and subtropical species to move northward and replace more temperate species. Warmer winter temperatures are also expected to facilitate the northward movement of problematic invasive species, which could transform natural systems north of their current distribution. In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire practices. Many in rural communities are maintaining connections to traditional livelihoods and relying on natural resources that are inherently vulnerable to climate changes. Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impacting—and are projected to further impact—rural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity. Future temperature increases are projected to pose challenges to human health. Increases in temperatures, water stress , freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems. Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence. In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5) suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. Climate change tends to compound existing vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing inequities. Already poor regions, including those found in the Southeast, are expected to continue incurring greater losses than elsewhere in the United States.

Report↗

Late Amazonian ice near Athabasca Valles, Mars: Recent megaflood or climate change?

The Athabasca Valles outflow channel system is among the youngest such channels on Mars, with the Athabasca Valles flood lava (AVFL) covering the channel floor and reaching far beyond. Volcanic rootless cones on the AVFL indicate the presence of H 2 O in the shallow subsurface at the time of lava emplacement. However, Athabasca Valles are near the equator, where ice would rapidly sublime in the current climate. Therefore, the source of water for the rootless cones is uncertain: the leading hypotheses are that it was deposited (i) from the atmosphere in a different climate, or (ii) by a large aqueous flood shortly before the lava was erupted. Here we test the aqueous flood hypothesis, using numerical models of floods traversing Athabasca Valles to determine whether they can provide water to the locations of observed rootless cones. A secondary test is to determine whether flood waters are available to carve Lethe Vallis, a distal channel likely carved by the same event that formed Athabasca Valles. We find that floods with volumes and fluxes based on previously published estimates are unable to reach the distal rootless cones or Lethe Vallis. This suggests either that the climate allowed equatorial ice to be present in the subsurface at the time of the AVFL, or that geologically recent aqueous floods in Athabasca Valles were much larger than indicated by published models.

Icarus↗

Peak streamflow trends in North Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Standardized guidelines for completing flood-flow frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5 . In recent decades (since about 2000), a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence (periods of clustered floods or droughts, or wet or dry periods) and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change have caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumptions underlying methods in Bulletin 17C. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance on incorporating nonstationarities and further identifies a need for flood-frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. As part of that reexamination, a study of annual peak streamflow (peak flow) has begun in the Midwest. This chapter of the study summarizes how hydroclimatic variability affects peak flows in North Dakota. In this analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate metrics, four periods were selected: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Output from a monthly water-balance model was used for the climate data. Statistical analysis of peak flow consisted of evaluations of autocorrelation, trends, and change points and was augmented with analyses of seasonality and daily streamflow. The long-term pattern of decreasing peak flow in the west and increasing peak flow in the east is a pattern of opposing signals on either side of the 100th meridian. Analyses indicate that a key factor in changing hydroclimatology is the increase in fall precipitation. The trends in soil moisture closely match the trends in annual precipitation. Nonstationary flood-frequency analysis necessitates detailed exploratory data analysis and additional data and information about climate, land use, and other factors. This study provides extensive exploratory analysis for peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data for North Dakota, setting the stage for informed nonstationary flood-frequency analysis.

North Dakota↗

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

California↗

Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development

The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year −1 , reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO 2 emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year −1 , reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year −1 ). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.

Scientific Reports↗

Water temperature of streams in the Cook Inlet basin, Alaska, and implications of climate change

Water-temperature data from 32 sites in the Cook Inlet Basin, south-central Alaska, indicate various trends that depend on watershed characteristics. Basins with 25 percent or more of their area consisting of glaciers have the coldest water temperatures during the open-water season, mid-May to mid-October. Streams and rivers that drain lowlands have the warmest water temperatures. A model that uses air temperature as input to predict water temperature as output was utilized to simulate future trends in water temperature based on increased air temperatures due to climate warming. Based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, the model produced acceptable results for 27 sites. For basins with more than 25 percent glacial coverage, the model was not as accurate. Results indicate that 15 sites had a predicted water-temperature change of 3 degrees Celsius or more, a magnitude of change that is considered significant for the incidence of disease in fish populations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as tropical storms and hurricanes, thunderstorms, heat waves, droughts, ice storms, and snow storms have increased and are projected to further increase in intensity and frequency across the world. These events are expected to have significant consequences for aquatic ecosystems with the potential for large changes in ecosystem processes, responses, and functions.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗