USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate of the Past”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources

Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure.

Conference Paper↗

Delineating and identifying long-term changes in the whooping crane (Grus americana) migration corridor

Defining and identifying changes to seasonal ranges of migratory species is required for effective conservation. Historic sightings of migrating whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) have served as sole source of information to define a migration corridor in the Great Plains of North America (i.e., Canadian Prairies and United States Great Plains) for this endangered species. We updated this effort using past opportunistic sightings from 1942–2016 ( n = 5,055) and more recent (2010–2016) location data from 58 telemetered birds ( n = 4,423) to delineate migration corridors that included 50%, 75%, and 95% core areas. All migration corridors were well defined and relatively compact, with the 95% core corridor averaging 294 km wide, although it varied approximately ±40% in width from 170 km in central Texas to 407 km at the international border of the United States and Canada. Based on historic sightings and telemetry locations, we detected easterly movements in locations over time, primarily due to locations west of the median shifting east. This shift occurred from northern Oklahoma to central Saskatchewan at an average rate of 1.2 km/year (0.3–2.8 km/year). Associated with this directional shift was a decrease in distance of locations from the median in the same region averaging -0.7 km/year (-0.3–-1.3 km/year), suggesting a modest narrowing of the migration corridor. Changes in the corridor over the past 8 decades suggest that agencies and organizations interested in recovery of this species may need to modify where conservation and recovery actions occur. Whooping cranes showed apparent plasticity in their migratory behavior, which likely has been necessary for persistence of a wetland-dependent species migrating through the drought-prone Great Plains. Behavioral flexibility will be useful for whooping cranes to continue recovery in a future of uncertain climate and land use changes throughout their annual range.

PLoS ONE↗

Water problems in the present trend towards greater aridity

In the past few days we have heard a number of scientists, gathered here at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, discuss research work which, in one manner or another, bears on problems related to water resources. They have been discussing, particularly, problems in the field of climatology, and have speculated on the meaning of the results of this research. One of the problems under discussion was the nature, and possible cause, of the climatic fluctuation which we have experienced in recent decades, and its relation to climatic changes in recent geologic time since the last glaciation. These discussions have given me the courage, or perhaps the recklessness, to indulge in some speculation relative to various aspects of water resource problems in the United States.

Conference Paper↗

Assessing mosquito populations to limit the spread of avian disease and inform the conservation of Hawaiian forest birds

The introduced mosquito-borne avian malaria, Plasmodium relictum , along with its mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , are key limiting factors for endemic Hawaiian forest birds and are, in part, responsible for past extinctions and continued population declines of extant species. In the last 10 years steep declines in forest bird populations have been documented on Kaua`i and Maui. Presently two endemic species on Kaua`i, `Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and `Akeke`e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ) and two endemic species on Maui, Kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and `Ākohekohe, ( Palmeria dolei ) are facing extinction. These declines have been attributed to avian malaria transmission exacerbated by climate change. While little can be done to reduce the effects of climate change on vector abundance and transmission, recent innovations in landscape-level mosquito suppression and eradication may provide new tools to control or eliminate vectors from forest bird habitat. The current management focus is on the development and implementation of a Wolbachia -based Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) to reduce vector abundance. IIT involves using naturally occurring strains of Wolbachia , an endosymbiotic bacterium of C. quinquefasciatus and other arthropods, to facilitate reproductive incompatibility and infertility through cross matings. Through sustained releases of male mosquitoes infected with incompatible Wolbachia , wild mosquito populations can be suppressed. To meet regulatory approval for large-scale releases and achieve successful deployment and suppression, key ecological parameters (population density, dispersal, and survivorship) need to be assessed. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) techniques are commonly used to estimate these parameters outside of the Hawaiian Islands. Mark-release-recapture entails the capture of a portion of the population which is marked by a harmless method and then released back into the wild. The results of a subsequent or multiple recapture event(s) provide the proportion of marked individuals to unmarked individuals that can be mathematically analyzed to estimate populations size, survival, and dispersal. In this study, a MRR trial with wild-captured and laboratory-reared C. quinquefasciatus was conducted in a native forest on the Island of Hawai`i. The results provide some of the first estimates for (1) population abundance, (2) survivorship, and (3) movement of C. quinquefasciatus in forest bird habitat to support regulatory approvals and to advance and improve IIT mosquito control efforts in the State of Hawaii.

Hawaii↗

Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods

We use measured firn temperatures down to depths of 80 to 90 m at four locations in the interior of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica to derive surface temperature histories spanning the past few decades using two different inverse methods. We find that the mean surface temperatures near the ice divide (the highest‐elevation ridge of East Antarctic Ice Sheet) have increased approximately 1 to 1.5 K within the past ∼50 years, although the onset and rate of this warming vary by site. Histories at two locations, NUS07‐5 (78.65°S, 35.64°E) and NUS07‐7 (82.07°S, 54.89°E), suggest that the majority of this warming took place in the past one or two decades. Slight cooling to no change was indicated at one location, NUS08‐5 (82.63°S, 17.87°E), off the divide near the Recovery Lakes region. In the most recent decade, inversion results indicate both cooler and warmer periods at different sites due to high interannual variability and relatively high resolution of the inverted surface temperature histories. The overall results of our analysis fit a pattern of recent climate trends emerging from several sources of the Antarctic temperature reconstructions: there is a contrast in surface temperature trends possibly related to altitude in this part of East Antarctica.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Climatic changes near the Great Lakes inferred from 141 year ice records

Freeze-up and break-up dates and duration of ice cover for lakes and rivers represent an integration of weather conditions prior to the specified event(s). Changes in mean ice conditions may be used as quantitative indicators of climatic changes if long homogenous ice records are accompanied by sufficiently homogenous air temperature records to calibrate the changes in mean ice cover in terms of climatic variables. Historical ice records dating back to 1855 are available for Lake Mendota, WI (located on the southwestern side of Lake Michigan) and back to 1851 for Grand Traverse Bay, MI (located on the northeastern side of Lake Michigan). Changes in the mean ice cover of these two systems were used to describe changes in fall, winter, and spring air temperatures in the area near the Great Lakes during the past 141 years.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Late-glacial to holocene changes in winds, upwelling, and seasonal production of the northern California current system

A core 120 km off the coast of southern Oregon was examined for changes in lithology, diatoms, and pollen over the past 30,000 yr. Primary production during the late Pleistocene was about half that of the Holocene. Evidence from diatoms and pollen indicates that summer upwelling was much weaker, implying an absence of strong northerly winds. Early Pliocene diatoms found throughout the late Pleistocene section were probably derived from diatomites east of the Cascades and provide evidence for strong easterly winds over a dry continental interior. The findings verify predictions of a climate model based on glacial maximum conditions. There is no compelling evidence for a climatic reversal corresponding to the European Younger Dryas chron. During the early Holocene (9000-7000 yr B.P.) there may have been years when winds were insufficiently strong to support upwelling, so that warm stratified waters lay closer to the coast. ?? 1992.

Quaternary Research↗

Wave-driven spatial and temporal variability in sea-floor sediment mobility in the Monterey Bay, Cordell Bank, and Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuaries

Wind and wave patterns affect many aspects of continental shelves and shorelines geomorphic evolution. Although our understanding of the processes controlling sediment suspension on continental shelves has improved over the past decade, our ability to predict sediment mobility over large spatial and temporal scales remains limited. The deployment of robust operational buoys along the U.S. West Coast in the early 1980s provides large quantities of high-resolution oceanographic and meteorologic data. By 2006, these data sets were long enough to clearly identify long-term trends and compute statistically significant probability estimates of wave and wind behavior during annual and interannual climatic cycles (that is, El Niño and La Niña). Wave-induced sediment mobility on the shelf and upper slope off central California was modeled using synthesized oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN model, sea-floor grain-size data provided by the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences in waves (heights, periods, and directions) and winds (speeds and directions) between El Niño and La Niña months cause temporal and spatial variations in peak wave-induced bed shear stresses. These variations, in conjunction with spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in predicted sediment mobility widely varying in both time and space. These findings indicate that these factors have significant consequences for both geological and biological processes.

California↗

Response of aboveground carbon balance to long-term, experimental enhancements in precipitation seasonality is contingent on plant community type in cold-desert rangelands

Semi-arid rangelands are important carbon (C) pools at global scales. However, the degree of net C storage or release in water-limited systems is a function of precipitation amount and timing, as well as plant community composition. In northern latitudes of western North America, C storage in cold-desert ecosystems could increase with boosts in wintertime precipitation, in which climate models predict, due to increases in wintertime soil water storage that enhance summertime productivity. However, there are few long-term, manipulative field-based studies investigating how rangelands will respond to altered precipitation amount or timing. We measured aboveground C pools and fluxes at leaf, soil, and ecosystem scales over a single growing season in plots that had 200 mm of supplemental precipitation added in either winter or summer for the past 21 years, in shrub- and exotic-bunchgrass-dominated garden plots. At our cold-desert site (298 mm precipitation during the study year), we hypothesized that increased winter precipitation would stimulate the aboveground C uptake and storage relative to ambient conditions, especially in plots containing shrubs. Our hypotheses were generally supported: ecosystem C uptake and long-term biomass accumulation were greater in winter- and summer-irrigated plots compared to control plots in both vegetation communities. However, substantial increases in the aboveground biomass occurred only in winter-irrigated plots that contained shrubs. Our findings suggest that increases in winter precipitation will enhance C storage of this widespread ecosystem, and moreso in shrub- compared to grass-dominated communities.

Idaho↗

Competition with other ungulates

Competition can affect species assemblages, population dynamics of competitors, and ecosystem processes. Understanding interspecific competition involves considering multidimensional factors that relate directly to the niche of competitors. For coexistence of species to occur, overlap on an important niche axis, such as diet, habitat, or space, must be accompanied by avoidance on another axis. Observed patterns of resource partitioning may have resulted from past competitive interactions, which reflect the realized rather than fundamental niches of competitors. Moreover, niche space and resultant overlap in resource use by competitors may differ seasonally, thereby leading to variation in competitive outcomes. This chapter describes interactions of black-tailed and mule deer (i.e., deer) with American bison; collared peccary; domestic livestock; elk; exotic animals, feral burros, horses, and pigs; moose; mountain sheep; pronghorn; and white-tailed deer. A changing climate holds potential to adversely affect deer across their distribution. Negative effects on forage quality and patterns of green-up may affect productivity of populations and alter migratory patterns. Drought in summer and amount and timing of spring rainfall may influence the distribution of deer and affect survival, especially in desert ecosystems. How such changes affect competitive interactions of mule deer with other ungulates is uncertain, and requires further research.

Book chapter↗

"HIP" new software: The Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process

Managing rivers and streams to maintain healthy aquatic ecosystems is a challenge for resource managers across the country. Demand for competing uses of water resources grows with escalating development, increasing recreational use, and the vagaries of climate and weather. For many species of concern, instream flow and associated water quality are critical for survival. Balancing ecosystem needs with proposed changes in flow regimes requires a process managers can use to determine the ecological and hydrological effects of changes in streamflow. Center (FORT) have developed the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP) and a suite of software tools for conducting a hydrologic classification of streams, addressing instream flow needs, and assessing past and proposed hydrologic alterations on streamflow and other ecosystem components. The HIP recognizes that streamflow is strongly related to many critical physiochemical components of rivers, such as dissolved oxygen, channel geomorphology, and habitats. Streamflow is considered a “master variable” that limits the distribution, abundance, and diversity of many aquatic plant and animal species.

Fact Sheet↗

Cruise report R/V Surf Surveyor cruise S1-00-CL, mapping the bathymetry of Crater Lake, Oregon

During the Spring of 1999, the US Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Seafloor Mapping Project (PSMP) was contacted by the US National Park Service Crater Lake National Park (CLNP) to inquire about the plausibility of producing a high-resolution multibeam bathymetric map of Crater Lake. The purpose was to generate a much higher-resolution and more geographically accurate bathymetric map than was produced in 1959, the last time the lake had been surveyed. Scientific interest in various aspects of Crater Lake (aquatic biology, geochemistry, volcanic processes, etc.) has increased during the past decade but the basemap of bathymetry was woefully inadequate. Funds were gathered during the early part of 2000 and the mapping began in late July, 2000. Crater Lake (see fig. 1 in report) is located in south central Oregon (see fig. 2 in report) within the Cascades Range, a chain of volcanoes that stretches from northern California to southern British Columbia. Crater Lake is the collapsed caldera of Mt. Mazama from a climatic eruption about 7700-yr ago (Nelson et al., 1988; Bacon and Lanphere, 1990; Bacon et al., 1997). The floor of Crater Lake has only been mapped three times since the lake was first stumbled upon by gold prospectors in the 1853. The first survey was carried by out by William G. Steel during a joint USGS-US Army expedition under the direction of Maj. Clarence E. Dutton in 1886 (Dutton, 1889). Steel�s mapping survey collected 186 soundings using a Millers lead-line sounding machine (see fig.3 in report). The resulting map (see fig.4 in report) shows only soundings and no attempts were made to generate contours. The second survey, conducted in 1959 by the US Coast and Geodetic Survey, mapped the bathymetry of Crater Lake with an acoustic echo sounder using radar navigation and collected 4000 soundings. The data were contoured by Williams (1961) and Byrne (1962) and the result is a fairly detailed map of the large-scale features of Crater Lake (see fig. 5 in report). The third mapping survey, the one of this report, was a joint USGS-NPS project carried out under a Cooperative Agreement with the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping, University of New Hampshire. The 2000 survey used a Kongsberg Simrad EM1002 high-resolution multibeam mapping system owned and operated by C&C Technologies, Inc. of Lafayette, LA.

Oregon↗

Bats of Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado: Composition, reproduction, and roosting habits

We determined the bat fauna at Mesa Verde National Park (Mesa Verde) in 2006 and 2007, characterized bat elevational distribution and reproduction, and investigated roosting habits of selected species. We captured 1996 bats of 15 species in mist nets set over water during 120 nights of sampling and recorded echolocation calls of an additional species. The bat fauna at Mesa Verde included every species of bat known west of the Great Plains in Colorado, except the little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ). Some species showed skewed sex ratios, primarily due to a preponderance of males. Thirteen species of bats reproduced at Mesa Verde. Major differences in spring precipitation between the 2 years of our study were associated with differences in reproductive rates and, in some species, with numbers of juveniles captured. Reduced reproductive effort during spring drought will have a greater impact on bat populations with the forecasted increase in aridity in much of western North America by models of global climate change. We radiotracked 46 bats of 5 species to roosts and describe the first-known maternity colonies of spotted bats ( Euderma maculatum ) in Colorado. All 5 species that we tracked to diurnal roosts relied almost exclusively on rock crevices rather than trees or snags, despite the presence of mature forests at Mesa Verde and the use of trees for roosts in similar forests elsewhere by some of these species. Comparisons with past bat surveys at Mesa Verde and in surrounding areas suggest no dramatic evidence for effects of recent stand-replacing fires on the composition of the bat community.

Colorado↗

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular↗

Revising supraglacial rock avalanche magnitudes and frequencies in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

The frequency of large supraglacial landslides (rock avalanches) occurring in glacial environments is thought to be increasing due to feedbacks with climate warming and permafrost degradation. However, it is difficult to (i) test this; (ii) establish cause–effect relationships; and (iii) determine associated lag-times, due to both temporal and spatial biases in detection rates. Here we applied the Google Earth Engine supraglacial debris input detector (GERALDINE) to Glacier Bay National Park & Preserve (GLBA), Alaska. We find that the number of rock avalanches (RAs) has previously been underestimated by 53 %, with a bias in past detections towards large area RAs. In total, GLBA experienced 69 RAs during 1984–2020, with the highest frequency in the last three years. Of these, 58 % were deposited into the accumulation zone and then sequestered into the ice within two years. RA sources clustered spatially at high elevations and around certain peaks and ridges, predominantly at the boundary of modelled permafrost likelihood. They also clustered temporally, occurring mainly between May and September when air temperatures were high enough to initiate rock-permafrost degradation mechanisms. There was a chronic background debris supply from RAs, with at least one RA occurring in all but nine years; however, a debris rich period during 2012–2016 was driven by three large RAs delivering 44 % of all (1984–2020) debris (by area). Comparable investigation of slope-failures in other remote currently glaciated regions is lacking. If RA rates are similar elsewhere, especially the bias towards emplacement onto/into accumulation zones, their contribution to glacial sediment budgets has been globally underestimated.

Alaska↗

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope studies of the sediments of Elk Lake, Minnesota

Variations in the ratios of 18 O: 16 O and 13 C: 12 C in calcite throughout the Holocene in Elk Lake, Minnesota, are recorded in three varve-calibrated carbonate cores. Marl in a varved deep-basin (29.6 m) core consists mainly of calcite precipitated from surface waters during the summer and probably provides the least complicated isotope record. Marl in a sublittoral (10 m) core consists of calcite contributed from several inorganic and organic sources and probably is the most complicated of the three isotope records. Calcite from shells of the ostracod Candona ohioensis in the sublittoral core provides a record of shallow-water conditions in Elk Lake for the period between 10,500 and 5500 varve yr. Variations in the 13 C: 12 C ratio of organic carbon deposited in Elk Lake during the Holocene are recorded in organic matter in the deep-basin core. All three oxygen isotope records show that, in general, the 18 O: 16 O ratio in carbonate was enriched in 18 O by several parts per mil during the mid-Holocene relative to the past few thousand years. This pattern of oxygen isotope variation is similar to that observed for carbonate materials from other lakes in the northeastern and north-central United States. Oxygen isotope records from these other lakes also show that the 18 O: 16 O ratio during the early Holocene was lower than during the mid-Holocene, and this pattern has been interpreted as representing a response to a generally warmer and drier climate during the mid-Holocene beginning about 8000 varve yr (the so-called hypsithermal). Ostracod and diatom assemblages from Elk Lake cores show, however, that the lake was colder and more saline than at present until at least 6700 varve yr, with conditions similar to those that exist today in cold prairie lakes of Canada. It may be more appropriate, therefore, to refer to the mid-Holocene in northwestern Minnesota as the “prairie period” rather than the hypsithermal, indicating that the climate was drier, but with no connotation regarding temperature. The oxygen isotope data from the three Elk Lake records for this period are somewhat equivocal. Values of δ 18 O in the marl from the sublittoral core and shells of Candona increase from 10,000 to about 6800 varve yr. However, values of δ 18 O in the marl that accumulated in the deepest part of the lake over the same interval (10,000–6800 varve yr) are more or less constant and enriched in 18 O; this probably reflects the cold, saline prairie-lake conditions predicted from the ostracod and diatom assemblage data. All three oxygen isotope records show decreases in 18 O: 16 O ratios after about 6800 varve yr in response to an increase in temperature and decrease in salinity of the lake. The 13 C: 12 C ratios in carbonates from all three Elk Lake records show a distinct pattern; the ratio increased gradually from 10,000 to 8000 varve yr going into the mid-Holocene prairie period and then decreased gradually coming out of the prairie period between about 5500 and 2500 varve yr. These changes in the 13 C: 12 C ratio could have been related to temperature through its effect on solubility of carbon dioxide; however, this interpretation is not supported by the oxygen isotope data. Another possibility is that changes in the 13 C: 12 C ratio are related to organic productivity that removes 13 C-depleted organic carbon and results in 13 C-enriched surface waters. This interpretation implies that organic productivity was higher in Elk Lake during the mid-Holocene prairie period. Support for the high-productivity, 13 C-enriched surface-water model for the mid-Holocene prairie period in Elk Lake is provided by changes in the 13 C: 12 C ratio of organic carbon in the deep-basin core. These changes parallel almost exactly those in the 13 C: 12 C ratio of carbonate carbon, but are about 2% larger (about 6% as opposed to about 4% for carbonate carbon). The difference of about 2% may represent 13 C depletion due to CO 2 limitation. The percentage of organic carbon in the sediment did not increase during the prairie period because it was diluted by an increased flux of detrital clastic material. The ultimate burial rate of organic carbon increased considerably, however, indicating that organic productivity was higher and/or the degree of preservation increased. Diatom assemblages and plant-pigment concentrations indicate that productivity was higher during the prairie period. Pyrolysis hydrogen and oxygen indices show that the 13 C-enriched organic matter that accumulated during the prairie period was hydrogen rich and oxygen poor relative to organic matter that accumulated before and after. These two indices demonstrate that the organic matter that accumulated during the prairie period was much better preserved.

Minnestoa↗

Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century

The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage new plant growth. We used the extended spring indices to project changes in spring onset, defined by leaf out and by first bloom, and predicted false springs until 2100 in the conterminous United States (US) using statistically-downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ensemble. Averaged over our study region, the median shift in spring onset was 23 days earlier in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario with particularly large shifts in the Western US and the Great Plains. Spatial variation in phenology was due to the influence of short-term temperature changes around the time of spring onset versus season long accumulation of warm temperatures. False spring risk increased in the Great Plains and portions of the Midwest, but remained constant or decreased elsewhere. We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.

Geophysical Research Letters↗