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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Cracking the code of biodiversity responses to past climate change

How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo‐edaphic properties

Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote‐sensing‐based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo‐edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo‐edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate‐induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern USA and can inform management efforts to regulate grass and woody plant abundances.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Association of excessive precipitation and agricultural land use with honey bee colony performance

Context: From landscape variables to weather, multiple environmental factors affect honey bees and other pollinators. Detailed honey bee colony assessments in a variety of landscape and weather conditions offer the opportunity to develop a mechanistic understanding of how landscape composition, configuration, and weather are associated with colony nutrition, demography, and productivity. Objectives: Our objective was to test if weather and landscape characteristics (e.g., agricultural versus forested land use) are associated with different honey bee colony outcomes (foraged nectar mass, foraged pollen mass, pupal population size, and adult population size change). Methods: We collected detailed colony measurements on over 450 honey bee colonies over four years across an agricultural-to-forested land use gradient in Michigan, USA. Results: We found that higher than normal precipitation in the preceding spring and fall was negatively correlated with colony size change and with foraged nectar mass, respectively. Sites surrounded by less agricultural land and more forested land also had fewer pupae by the end of summer. Conclusions: These inter-dependent colony metrics offer insights into environmental-plant-pollinator dynamics. Our finding that extreme weather events, associated with climate change, are negatively correlated with colony performance point to likely lagged effects of weather on pollinator floral resources. Landscapes managed with climate-resilient, temporally continuous floral resources are likely to support pollinators. Capturing extreme weather phenomena in field studies is a valuable way to investigate the associations between land use, climate change and biological systems. However, caution should be taken in overinterpreting observational studies, so further research is needed.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2025

Small waterbodies of large conservation concern: Towards an integrated approach to more accurately measuring surface water dynamics

Millions of small waterbodies are dispersed throughout the middle of the North American continent, and billions of dollars have been invested to conserve, restore, and manage these waterbodies in the 20th and 21st centuries. Small waterbody conservation has been supported by different stakeholders aiming at improving water quality, enhancing floodwater storage, and supporting migratory bird breeding habitat. Conservation agencies are using hydrological and biological monitoring, modeling, and mapping to adaptively manage small waterbodies in the face of stressors such as invasive species and climate change. As remote sensing estimates of small waterbody surface water extent have become easier to access, understanding the capabilities and limitations of using remote sensing, especially in areas lacking surface water monitoring, is important for conservation decision making. Here, we used in situ monitoring and process-based hydrological modeling to explore remote sensing accuracy, especially related to waterbody size, emergent aquatic vegetation cover, and climatic conditions. Overall, we found that the accuracy of satellite and aerial imagery surface water mapping approaches vastly decreased for waterbodies smaller than 2 ha. We also found emergent vegetation could be masking surface water in waterbodies larger than 2 ha and that accuracy of some remote sensing estimates may decrease during wetter climatic periods. These results indicate that sensors commonly used for surface water applications alone may not be able to accurately detect small waterbody surface water, which supports the need for combining monitoring and modeling to understand how small waterbodies may respond to future changes in climate and land use.

Minnesota↗
USGS2017

Using management to address vegetation stress related to land-use and climate change

While disturbances such as fire, cutting, and grazing can be an important part of the conservation of natural lands, some adjustments to management designed to mimic natural disturbance may be necessary with ongoing and projected climate change. Stressed vegetation that is incapable of regeneration will be difficult to maintain if adults are experiencing mortality, and/or if their early life-history stages depend on disturbance. A variety of active management strategies employing disturbance are suggested, including resisting, accommodating, or directing vegetation change by manipulating management intensity and frequency. Particularly if land-use change is the main cause of vegetation stress, amelioration of these problems using management may help vegetation resist change (e.g. strategic timing of water release if a water control structure is available). Managers could direct succession by using management to push vegetation toward a new state. Despite the historical effects of management, some vegetation change will not be controllable as climates shift, and managers may have to accept some of these changes. Nevertheless, proactive measures may help managers achieve important conservation goals in the future.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2003

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury from boats and other human causes and control the loss of foraging habitat to coastal development.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Tree mortality response to drought-density interactions suggests opportunities to enhance drought resistance

The future of dry forests around the world is uncertain given predictions that rising temperatures and enhanced aridity will increase drought-induced tree mortality. Using forest management and ecological restoration to reduce density and competition for water offers one of the few pathways that forests managers can potentially minimize drought-induced tree mortality. Competition for water during drought leads to elevated tree mortality in dense stands, although the influence of density on heat-induced stress, and the durations of hot or dry conditions that most impact mortality, remain unclear. Understanding how competition interacts with hot-drought stress is essential to recognize how, where, and how much reducing density can help sustain dry forests in a rapidly changing world. Here, we integrated repeat measurements of 28,881 ponderosa pine trees across the western US (2000-2017) with soil moisture estimates from a water balance model to examine how annual mortality responds to competition, temperature and soil moisture conditions. Tree mortality responded most strongly to basal area, and was elevated in places with high mean temperatures, unusually hot 7-year high temperature anomalies, and unusually dry 8-year low soil moisture anomalies. Mortality was also lower in places that experienced unusually wet 3-year soil moisture anomalies between measurements. Importantly, we found that basal area interacts with temperature and soil moisture, exacerbating mortality during times of stress imposed by high temperature or low moisture. Synthesis and Applications: Our results imply that a 50% reduction in forest basal area could reduce drought-driven tree mortality by 20-80%. The largest impacts of density reduction are seen in areas with high current basal area and places that experience high temperatures and/or severe multiyear droughts. These interactions between competition and drought are critical to understand past and future patterns of tree mortality in the context of climate change, and provide information for resource managers seeking to enhance dry forest drought resistance.

Journal of Applied Ecology.↗
USGS2021

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Fire and forests in the 21st century: Managing resilience under changing climates and fire regimes in USA forests

Higher temperatures, lower snowpacks, drought, and extended dry periods have contributed to increased wildfire activity in recent decades. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of large fires, the cumulative area burned, and fire suppression costs and risks in many areas of the USA. Fire regimes are likely to change due to interactions among climate, fire, and other stressors and disturbances; resulting in persistent changes in forest structure and function. The remainder of the twenty-first century will present substantial challenges, as natural resource managers are faced with higher fire risk and the difficult task of maintaining ecological function in a rapidly changing biophysical and social landscape. Fuel treatments will continue to be important for minimizing the undesirable ecological effects of fire, and for enhancing firefighter safety; however, treatments must be implemented strategically across large areas. Collaboration among agencies, private landowners, and other organizations will be critical for ensuring resilience and sustainable forest management.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Resilience to stress and disturbance, and resistance to Bromus tectorum L. invasion in cold desert shrublands of western North America

Alien grass invasions in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are resulting in grass–fire cycles and ecosystem-level transformations that severely diminish ecosystem services. Our capacity to address the rapid and complex changes occurring in these ecosystems can be enhanced by developing an understanding of the environmental factors and ecosystem attributes that determine resilience of native ecosystems to stress and disturbance, and resistance to invasion. Cold desert shrublands occur over strong environmental gradients and exhibit significant differences in resilience and resistance. They provide an excellent opportunity to increase our understanding of these concepts. Herein, we examine a series of linked questions about (a) ecosystem attributes that determine resilience and resistance along environmental gradients, (b) effects of disturbances like livestock grazing and altered fire regimes and of stressors like rapid climate change, rising CO 2 , and N deposition on resilience and resistance, and (c) interacting effects of resilience and resistance on ecosystems with different environmental conditions. We conclude by providing strategies for the use of resilience and resistance concepts in a management context. At ecological site scales, state and transition models are used to illustrate how differences in resilience and resistance influence potential alternative vegetation states, transitions among states, and thresholds. At landscape scales management strategies based on resilience and resistance—protection, prevention, restoration, and monitoring and adaptive management—are used to determine priority management areas and appropriate actions.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2020

Climate-induced expansions of invasive species in the Pacific Northwest, North America: A synthesis of observations and projections

Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing on terrestrial (n = 2) or aquatic (n = 3) species within the PNW. Only 93 studies predicted the future dynamics of the focal NIS somewhere in their non-native range using climate model projections, yielding 117 species-specific predictions. However, only 30 of those studies generated predictions that overlapped with the PNW, and only six focused specifically on the expansion or abundance of NIS (n = 11 species) entirely within the region. Although our understanding of how climate change may interact with biological invasions is notably lacking, some evidence suggests that climate-induced NIS expansions are already underway in the PNW, particularly in aquatic ecosystems, and will be exacerbated by future changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Better information is urgently needed for managers to implement strategic prevention, early detection, and proactive actions that ameliorate ecologically and economically devastating impacts of NIS.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, ↗
USGS2022

Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum ) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to understand the ecological and demographic mechanisms that underlie ongoing and predicted range shifts. We use nearly four decades of demographic monitoring for this threatened Hawaiian species, in combination with other biological, ecological and climate data to explore demographic responses across its entire range. We construct and independently validate population models for two elevation zones representing the species’ lower trailing and higher stable regions. Differences in population growth rate (lambda) between trailing and stable regions were influenced most strongly by lower survival of juvenile and small adult size classes, as well as by lower recruitment and lower survival of seedlings and large adults in the trailing region. Furthermore, seed production appears to have decreased from the 1980’s to present in the trailing region, and is now significantly less than in the stable region. Lambda and several underlying vital rates were significantly associated with wetter dry season conditions in the lower trailing region, indicating water limitation. In the higher elevation stable region, in contrast, lambda and vital rates were associated with warmer air temperatures, indicating cold limitation. These contrasting demographic patterns and climate dependencies lead to a high probability of extinction over the next century in the lower region, where most plants occur, but zero probability of the same in the higher region, according to stochastic population projections. Drier future scenarios further increase the probability of extinction at low elevations. The combined results illustrate the complexity in the demographic response and future viability that can occur across the range of a single species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2026

More water, more of the time: Spatial changes in flooding over 83 years in the upper Mississippi River floodplain and relationships with streamgage-derived proxies

The hydrologic regime of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) has become wetter, with greater discharges, longer-lasting high-flow conditions, and seasonal shifts in these patterns over the past several decades. How these changes are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing is not well understood. It is also unclear to what degree spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone. We assessed changes in floodplain inundation characteristics from 1940 to 2022 in navigation pools 3–10 of the UMR using a geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths. Inundation characteristics shifted significantly across pools, but the direction and magnitude of change varied by pool and metric. Characteristics summarized at the pool scale correlated with streamgage-derived proxies but the strength of the relationship varied. Within pools, variability in inundation trends highlighted the importance of spatially explicit modeling. Our study demonstrates that changes in discharge over 83 years have manifested across the UMR floodplain in ways that may have consequences for ecological patterns and processes. By mapping hydrologically sensitive areas, we can anticipate which areas may be susceptible to additional shifts in river discharge in a climatically uncertain future.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wiscosnin↗
USGS2022

Marine mammal hotspots across the circumpolar Arctic

Aim Identify hotspots and areas of high species richness for Arctic marine mammals. Location Circumpolar Arctic. Methods A total of 2115 biologging devices were deployed on marine mammals from 13 species in the Arctic from 2005 to 2019. Getis-Ord G i * hotspots were calculated based on the number of individuals in grid cells for each species and for phylogenetic groups (nine pinnipeds, three cetaceans, all species) and areas with high species richness were identified for summer (Jun-Nov), winter (Dec-May) and the entire year. Seasonal habitat differences among species’ hotspots were investigated using Principal Component Analysis. Results Hotspots and areas with high species richness occurred within the Arctic continental-shelf seas and within the marginal ice zone, particularly in the “Arctic gateways” of the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Summer hotspots were generally found further north than winter hotspots, but there were exceptions to this pattern, including bowhead whales in the Greenland-Barents Seas and species with coastal distributions in Svalbard, Norway and East Greenland. Areas with high species richness generally overlapped high-density hotspots. Large regional and seasonal differences in habitat features of hotspots were found among species but also within species from different regions. Gap analysis (discrepancy between hotspots and IUCN ranges) identified species and regions where more research is required. Main conclusions This study identified important areas (and habitat types) for Arctic marine mammals using available biotelemetry data. The results herein serve as a benchmark to measure future distributional shifts. Expanded monitoring and telemetry studies are needed on Arctic species to understand the impacts of climate change and concomitant ecosystem changes (synergistic effects of multiple stressors). While efforts should be made to fill knowledge gaps, including regional gaps and more complete sex and age coverage, hotspots identified herein can inform management efforts to mitigate the impacts of human activities and ecological changes, including creation of protected areas.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2021

Global drivers of avian haemosporidian infections vary across zoogeographical regions

Aim: Macroecological analyses provide valuable insights into factors that influence how parasites are distributed across space and among hosts. Amid large uncertainties that arise when generalizing from local and regional findings, hierarchical approaches applied to global datasets are required to determine whether drivers of parasite infection patterns vary across scales. We assessed global patterns of haemosporidian infections across a broad diversity of avian host clades and zoogeographical realms to depict hotspots of prevalence and to identify possible underlying drivers. Location: Global. Time period: 1994–2019. Major taxa studied: Avian haemosporidian parasites (genera Plasmodium , Haemoproteus , Leucocytozoon and Parahaemoproteus ). Methods: We amalgamated infection data from 53,669 individual birds representing 2,445 species world-wide. Spatio-phylogenetic hierarchical Bayesian models were built to disentangle potential landscape, climatic and biotic drivers of infection probability while accounting for spatial context and avian host phylogenetic relationships. Results: Idiosyncratic responses of the three most common haemosporidian genera to climate, habitat, host relatedness and host ecological traits indicated marked variation in host infection rates from local to global scales. Notably, host ecological drivers, such as migration distance for Plasmodium and Parahaemoproteus , exhibited predominantly varying or even opposite effects on infection rates across regions, whereas climatic effects on infection rates were more consistent across realms. Moreover, infections in some low-prevalence realms were disproportionately concentrated in a few local hotspots, suggesting that regional-scale variation in habitat and microclimate might influence transmission, in addition to global drivers. Main conclusions: Our hierarchical global analysis supports regional-scale findings showing the synergistic effects of landscape, climate and host ecological traits on parasite transmission for a cosmopolitan and diverse group of avian parasites. Our results underscore the need to account for such interactions, in addition to possible variation in drivers across regions, to produce the robust inference required to predict changes in infection risk under future scenarios.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2010

Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

International Journal of Forestry Research↗
USGS2014

Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Drought and cooler temperatures are associated with higher nest survival in Mountain Plovers

Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests) and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗