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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Statistical implementations of agent-based demographic models

A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g., those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) for population demography. In a Bayesian setting, traditional computational algorithms for fitting hierarchical demographic models can be prohibitively cumbersome to construct. Thus, we discuss a variety of approaches for fitting statistical ABMs to data and demonstrate how to use multistage recursive Bayesian computing and statistical emulators to fit models in such a way that alleviates the need to have analytical knowledge of the ABM likelihood. Using two examples, a demographic model for survival and a compartment model for COVID-19, we illustrate statistical procedures for implementing ABMs. The approaches we describe are intuitive and accessible for practitioners and can be parallelized easily for additional computational eciency.

International Statistical Review↗
USGS1997

On the origin of diverse aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

We test the hypothesis that the origin at the diverse suite of aftershock mechanisms Following the 1989 M 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is related to the post-main-shock static stress field We use a 3-D boundary-element algorithm to calculate static stresses combined with a Coulomb failure criterion to calculate conjugate failure planes at aftershock locations. The post-main-shock static stress field is taken as the of a sum of a pre-existing stress field and changes in stress due to the heterogeneous slip across the Loma Prieta rupture plane. The background stress field is assumed to be either a simple shear parallel to the regional trend of the San Andreas fault or approximately fault-normal compression A suite of synthetic aftershock mechanisms from the conjugate failure planes is generated and quantitatively compared (allowing for uncertainties in both mechanism parameters and earthquake locations) to well-constrained mechanisms reported in the US Geological Survey Northern California Seismic Network catalogue. We also compare calculated rakes with those observed by resolving the calculated stress tensor onto observed focal mechanism nodal planes, assuming either plane to be a likely rupture plane.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2004

Estimating tectonic history through basin simulation-enhanced seismic inversion: Geoinformatics for sedimentary basins

A data assimilation approach is demonstrated whereby seismic inversion is both automated and enhanced using a comprehensive numerical sedimentary basin simulator to study the physics and chemistry of sedimentary basin processes in response to geothermal gradient in much greater detail than previously attempted. The approach not only reduces costs by integrating the basin analysis and seismic inversion activities to understand the sedimentary basin evolution with respect to geodynamic parameters-but the technique also has the potential for serving as a geoinfomatics platform for understanding various physical and chemical processes operating at different scales within a sedimentary basin. Tectonic history has a first-order effect on the physical and chemical processes that govern the evolution of sedimentary basins. We demonstrate how such tectonic parameters may be estimated by minimizing the difference between observed seismic reflection data and synthetic ones constructed from the output of a reaction, transport, mechanical (RTM) basin model. We demonstrate the method by reconstructing the geothermal gradient. As thermal history strongly affects the rate of RTM processes operating in a sedimentary basin, variations in geothermal gradient history alter the present-day fluid pressure, effective stress, porosity, fracture statistics and hydrocarbon distribution. All these properties, in turn, affect the mechanical wave velocity and sediment density profiles for a sedimentary basin. The present-day state of the sedimentary basin is imaged by reflection seismology data to a high degree of resolution, but it does not give any indication of the processes that contributed to the evolution of the basin or causes for heterogeneities within the basin that are being imaged. Using texture and fluid properties predicted by our Basin RTM simulator, we generate synthetic seismograms. Linear correlation using power spectra as an error measure and an efficient quadratic optimization technique are found to be most effective in determining the optimal value of the tectonic parameters. Preliminary 1-D studies indicate that one can determine the geothermal gradient even in the presence of observation and numerical uncertainties. The algorithm succeeds even when the synthetic data has detailed information only in a limited depth interval and has a different dominant frequency in the synthetic and observed seismograms. The methodology presented here even works when the basin input data contains only 75 per cent of the stratigraphic layering information compared with the actual basin in a limited depth interval.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2007

A three-dimensional geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea region: Model construction and basement characterization

BARENTS50, a new 3-D geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea Region has been developed by the University of Oslo, NORSAR and the U.S. Geological Survey. The target region comprises northern Norway and Finland, parts of the Kola Peninsula and the East European lowlands. Novaya Zemlya, the Kara Sea and Franz-Josef Land terminate the region to the east, while the Norwegian-Greenland Sea marks the western boundary. In total, 680 1-D seismic velocity profiles were compiled, mostly by sampling 2-D seismic velocity transects, from seismic refraction profiles. Seismic reflection data in the western Barents Sea were further used for density modelling and subsequent density-to-velocity conversion. Velocities from these profiles were binned into two sedimentary and three crystalline crustal layers. The first step of the compilation comprised the layer-wise interpolation of the velocities and thicknesses. Within the different geological provinces of the study region, linear relationships between the thickness of the sedimentary rocks and the thickness of the remaining crystalline crust are observed. We therefore, used the separately compiled (area-wide) sediment thickness data to adjust the total crystalline crustal thickness according to the total sedimentary thickness where no constraints from 1-D velocity profiles existed. The BARENTS50 model is based on an equidistant hexagonal grid with a node spacing of 50 km. The P -wave velocity model was used for gravity modelling to obtain 3-D density structure. A better fit to the observed gravity was achieved using a grid search algorithm which focussed on the density contrast of the sediment-basement interface. An improvement compared to older geophysical models is the high resolution of 50 km. Velocity transects through the 3-D model illustrate geological features of the European Arctic. The possible petrology of the crystalline basement in western and eastern Barents Sea is discussed on the basis of the observed seismic velocity structure. The BARENTS50 model is available at http://www.norsar.no/seismology/barents3d/ .

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2009

Developing framework to constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane on subduction interfaces a priori - A probabilistic approach

A key step in many earthquake source inversions requires knowledge of the geometry of the fault surface on which the earthquake occurred. Our knowledge of this surface is often uncertain, however, and as a result fault geometry misinterpretation can map into significant error in the final temporal and spatial slip patterns of these inversions. Relying solely on an initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism can be problematic when establishing rupture characteristics needed for rapid tsunami and ground shaking estimates. Here, we attempt to improve the quality of fast finite-fault inversion results by combining several independent and complementary data sets to more accurately constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane of subducting slabs. Unlike previous analyses aimed at defining the general form of the plate interface, we require mechanisms and locations of the seismicity considered in our inversions to be consistent with their occurrence on the plate interface, by limiting events to those with well-constrained depths and with CMT solutions indicative of shallow-dip thrust faulting. We construct probability density functions about each location based on formal assumptions of their depth uncertainty and use these constraints to solve for the ‘most-likely’ fault plane. Examples are shown for the trench in the source region of the M w 8.6 Southern Sumatra earthquake of March 2005, and for the Northern Chile Trench in the source region of the November 2007 Antofagasta earthquake. We also show examples using only the historic catalogues in regions without recent great earthquakes, such as the Japan and Kamchatka Trenches. In most cases, this method produces a fault plane that is more consistent with all of the data available than is the plane implied by the initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism. Using the aggregated data sets, we have developed an algorithm to rapidly determine more accurate initial fault plane geometries for source inversions of future earthquakes.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2009

Shallow seismic structure of Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibetan Plateau, China: Implications for the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake

The shallow seismic velocity structure of the Kunlun fault zone (KLFZ) was jointly deduced from seismic refraction profiling and the records of trapped waves that were excited by five explosions. The data were collected after the 2001 Kunlun M s8.1 earthquake in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Seismic phases for the in-line record sections (26 records up to a distance of 15 km) along the fault zone were analysed, and 1-D P - and S -wave velocity models of shallow crust within the fault zone were determined by using the seismic refraction method. Sixteen seismic stations were deployed along the off-line profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Fault-zone trapped waves appear clearly on the record sections, which were simulated with a 3-D finite difference algorithm. Quantitative analysis of the correlation coefficients of the synthetic and observed trapped waveforms indicates that the Kunlun fault-zone width is 300 m, and S -wave quality factor Q within the fault zone is 15. Significantly, S -wave velocities within the fault zone are reduced by 30–45 per cent from surrounding rocks to a depth of at least 1–2 km, while P -wave velocities are reduced by 7–20 per cent. A fault-zone with such P - and S -low velocities is an indication of high fluid pressure because Vs is affected more than Vp . The low-velocity and low- Q zone in the KLFZ model is the effect of multiple ruptures along the fault trace of the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake.

Tibetan Plateau↗
USGS2009

A grid-doubling finite-element technique for calculating dynamic three-dimensional spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault

We present a new finite-element technique for calculating dynamic 3-D spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault, which can reduce the required computational resources by a factor of six or more, without loss of accuracy. The grid-doubling technique employs small cells in a thin layer surrounding the fault. The remainder of the modelling volume is filled with larger cells, typically two or four times as large as the small cells. In the resulting non-conforming mesh, an interpolation method is used to join the thin layer of smaller cells to the volume of larger cells. Grid-doubling is effective because spontaneous rupture calculations typically require higher spatial resolution on and near the fault than elsewhere in the model volume. The technique can be applied to non-planar faults by morphing, or smoothly distorting, the entire mesh to produce the desired 3-D fault geometry. Using our FaultMod finite-element software, we have tested grid-doubling with both slip-weakening and rate-and-state friction laws, by running the SCEC/USGS 3-D dynamic rupture benchmark problems. We have also applied it to a model of the Hayward fault, Northern California, which uses realistic fault geometry and rock properties. FaultMod implements fault slip using common nodes, which represent motion common to both sides of the fault, and differential nodes, which represent motion of one side of the fault relative to the other side. We describe how to modify the traction-at-split-nodes method to work with common and differential nodes, using an implicit time stepping algorithm.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2010

Time-dependent seismic tomography

Of methods for measuring temporal changes in seismic-wave speeds in the Earth, seismic tomography is among those that offer the highest spatial resolution. 3-D tomographic methods are commonly applied in this context by inverting seismic wave arrival time data sets from different epochs independently and assuming that differences in the derived structures represent real temporal variations. This assumption is dangerous because the results of independent inversions would differ even if the structure in the Earth did not change, due to observational errors and differences in the seismic ray distributions. The latter effect may be especially severe when data sets include earthquake swarms or aftershock sequences, and may produce the appearance of correlation between structural changes and seismicity when the wave speeds are actually temporally invariant. A better approach, which makes it possible to assess what changes are truly required by the data, is to invert multiple data sets simultaneously, minimizing the difference between models for different epochs as well as the rms arrival-time residuals. This problem leads, in the case of two epochs, to a system of normal equations whose order is twice as great as for a single epoch. The direct solution of this system would require twice as much memory and four times as much computational effort as would independent inversions. We present an algorithm, tomo4d, that takes advantage of the structure and sparseness of the system to obtain the solution with essentially no more effort than independent inversions require. No claim to original US government works Journal compilation ?? 2010 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2012

Imaging with cross-hole seismoelectric tomography

We propose a cross-hole imaging approach based on seismoelectric conversions (SC) associated with the transmission of seismic waves from seismic sources located in a borehole to receivers (electrodes) located in a second borehole. The seismoelectric (seismic-to-electric) problem is solved using Biot theory coupled with a generalized Ohm's law with an electrokinetic streaming current contribution. The components of the displacement of the solid phase, the fluid pressure, and the electrical potential are solved using a finite element approach with Perfect Match Layer (PML) boundary conditions for the seismic waves and boundary conditions mimicking an infinite material for the electrostatic problem. We develop an inversion algorithm using the electrical disturbances recorded in the second borehole to localize the position of the heterogeneities responsible for the SC. Because of the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem (inherent to all potential-field problems), regularization is used to constrain the solution at each time in the SC-time window comprised between the time of the seismic shot and the time of the first arrival of the seismic waves in the second borehole. All the inverted volumetric current source densities are aggregated together to produce an image of the position of the heterogeneities between the two boreholes. Two simple synthetic case studies are presented to test this concept. The first case study corresponds to a vertical discontinuity between two homogeneous sub-domains. The second case study corresponds to a poroelastic inclusion (partially saturated by oil) embedded into an homogenous poroelastic formation. In both cases, the position of the heterogeneity is recovered using only the electrical disturbances associated with the SC. That said, a joint inversion of the seismic and seismoelectric data could improve these results.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2004

Predicting patterns of non-native plant invasions in Yosemite National Park, California, USA

One of the major issues confronting management of parks and reserves is the invasion of non-native plant species. Yosemite National Park is one of the largest and best-known parks in the United States, harbouring significant cultural and ecological resources. Effective management of non-natives would be greatly assisted by information on their potential distribution that can be generated by predictive modelling techniques. Our goal was to identify key environmental factors that were correlated with the percent cover of non-native species and then develop a predictive model using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production technique. We performed a series of analyses using community-level data on species composition in 236 plots located throughout the park. A total of 41 non-native species were recorded which occurred in 23.7% of the plots. Plots with non-natives occurred most frequently at low- to mid-elevations, in flat areas with other herbaceous species. Based on the community-level results, we selected elevation, slope, and vegetation structure as inputs into the GARP model to predict the environmental niche of non-native species. Verification of results was performed using plot data reserved from the model, which calculated the correct prediction of non-native species occurrence as 76%. The majority of the western, lower-elevation portion of the park was predicted to have relatively low levels of non-native species occurrence, with highest concentrations predicted at the west and south entrances and in the Yosemite Valley. Distribution maps of predicted occurrences will be used by management to: efficiently target monitoring of non-native species, prioritize control efforts according to the likelihood of non-native occurrences, and inform decisions relating to the management of non-native species in postfire environments. Our approach provides a valuable tool for assisting decision makers to better manage non-native species, which can be readily adapted to target non-native species in other locations.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2011

The application of prototype point processes for the summary and description of California wildfires

A method for summarizing repeated realizations of a space‐time marked point process, known as prototyping, is discussed and applied to catalogues of wildfires in California. Prototype summaries are constructed for varying time intervals using California wildfire data from 1990 to 2006. Previous work on prototypes for temporal and space‐time point processes is extended here to include methods for computing prototypes with marks and the incorporation of prototype summaries into hierarchical clustering algorithms, the latter of which is used to delineate fire seasons in California. Other results include summaries of patterns in the spatial‐temporal distribution of wildfires within each wildfire season.

California↗
USGS2010

Balancing forest-regeneration probabilities and maintenance costs in dry grasslands of high conservation priority

Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species-rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site-selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry-grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry-grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2005

Simulating reservoir leakage in ground-water models

Leakage to ground water resulting from the expansion and contraction of reservoirs cannot be easily simulated by most ground-water flow models. An algorithm, entitled the Reservoir Package, was developed for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) three-dimensional finite-difference modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW. The Reservoir Package automates the process of specifying head-dependent boundary cells, eliminating the need to divide a simulation into many stress periods while improving accuracy in simulating changes in ground-water levels resulting from transient reservoir stage. Leakage between the reservoir and the underlying aquifer is simulated for each model cell corrresponding to the inundated area by multiplying the head difference between the reservoir and the aquifer with the hydraulic conductance of the reservoir-bed sediments.

Groundwater↗
USGS2005

A statistical estimator of the spatial distribution of the water-table altitude

An algorithm was designed to statistically estimate the areal distribution of water-table altitude. The altitude of the water table was bounded below by the minimum water-table surface and above by the land surface. Using lake elevations and stream stages, and interpolating between lakes and streams, the minimum water-table surface was generated. A multiple linear regression among the minimum water-table altitude, the difference between land-surface and minimum water-table altitudes, and the water-level measurements from surficial aquifer system wells resulted in a consistently high correlation for all groups of physiographic regions in Florida. A simple linear regression between land-surface and water-level measurements resulted in a root-mean-square residual of 4.23 m, with residuals ranging from -8.78 to 41.54 m. A simple linear regression between the minimum water table and the water-level measurements resulted in a root-mean-square residual of 1.45 m, with residuals ranging from -7.39 to 4.10 m. The application of the multiple linear regression presented herein resulted in a root-mean-square residual of 1.05 m, with residuals ranging from -5.24 to 5.63 m. Results from complete and partial F tests rejected the hypothesis of eliminating any of the regressors in the multiple linear regression presented in this study.

Ground Water↗
USGS2007

Design and implementation of evapotranspiration measuring equipment for Owens Valley, California

As part of a plant survivability and ground water study in Owens Valley, California, semipermanent installations are used to measure continuous range‐land evapotranspiration in the valley's phreatophyte community. A proposed mobile installation also has been designed. The semipermanent micrometeoro‐logical station collects continuous data for solution of the Bowen ratio/energy budget equation and the Penman combination equation. Three sites were chosen for this type of installation to provide a representative sampling of Owens Valley. The proposed mobile aerodynamic installation should be capable of calculating evapotranspiration by the eddy correlation method. This instrumentation will be used throughout the valley for short periods of time (up to five days). Many problems with equipment operation, calibration and design have been identified and resolved by means of improved calibration techniques, systematic error‐removal techniques, reduced cycle times, modified equipment design and proper observer training. The collected evapotranspiration data will be instrumental in developing a one‐dimensional evapotranspiration flux algorithm for a model of valleywide ground water flow.

California↗
USGS2007

Design procedure for hooded surface oxygen absorption systems

A design procedure addressing effluent total dissolved gas pressure limits along with standard performance indicators such as oxygen absorption efficiency (kg absorbed/kg applied), and transfer efficiency (kg/kW.h), is presented for surface agitation equipment operating in an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. Application of this contactor type in closed culture systems is attractive given its insensitivity to biological fouling and ability to operate without the need for a significant hydraulic gradient. Performance algorithms were developed through application of chemical reactor theory, Henry's Law and the Ideal Gas Law. In the analysis, gas and liquid phases were treated as being homogeneous. The design steps presented are unique in that required mass transfer coefficients (K L a), operating pressures (CP), and oxygen feed rates (G/L) are calculated for target changes in both dissolved oxygen and nitrogen without the use of iterative numerical procedures. A second calculation sequence establishes the sensitivity of system performance to changes in G/L when CP and K L a are known.

Journal of the World Aquaculture Society↗
USGS2007

A sediment resuspension and water quality model of Lake Okeechobee

ABSTRACT: The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeechobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspend. ed solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is light-limited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sediment-water interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

A hybrid optimization approach to the estimation of distributed parameters in two-dimensional confined aquifers

ABSTRACT: In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗