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Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.

Lake Erie Basin↗

Daily fluctuating flows affect riparian plant species distributions from local to regional scales

Aims The number of hydropower dams has grown globally over recent decades, with significant impacts on downstream riparian plant communities. Many of these dams generate daily fluctuating flows known as hydropeaking to meet sub-daily variation in energy demands. Hydropeaking can significantly impact riparian plant communities, with obligate riparian species tending to experience the greatest negative effects on habitat suitability. Whether this pattern holds in arid biomes where daily soil moisture enhancements could benefit some plants is an open question. Location Colorado River, Grand Canyon, Western USA. Methods We used occurrence records to model species responses to variation in daily flow fluctuations across 32 689 river segments in the Western United States. We then applied estimates of hydropeaking responses derived from those models to understanding the abundance and fine scale hydrologic niches of riparian plant species in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, which has experienced vegetation expansion attributed to river regulation, including hydropeaking that began in 1964. Results At the regional scale, species with greater wetland dependence exhibited increasingly negative responses to hydropeaking across 1 496 species, consistent with previous studies at smaller scales. At the local scale of the Colorado River, we found that species inhabiting near-channel habitat characterized by daily inundation and exposure had positive modeled responses to hydropeaking, consistent with a long history of selection for species tolerant of hydropeaking. In contrast, species inhabiting the zone immediately above peak daily river stage had negative modeled responses to hydropeaking, suggesting that they are being excluded from otherwise suitable habitat nearer the channel. Conclusions These results demonstrate that hydropeaking can impact species distributions from local to regional scales by excluding obligate wetland species and reducing habitat suitability for some facultative wetland species. These results from an arid river system are consistent with those reported from other biomes.

Arizona↗

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) to greater than 500,000 m 3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m 3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico↗

Rainfall-runoff of anthropogenic waste indicators from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids

The presence of anthropogenic contaminants such as antimicrobials, flame-retardants, and plasticizers in runoff from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids may pose a potential threat to the environment. This study assesses the potential for rainfall-induced runoff of 69 anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs), widely found in household and industrial products, from biosolids amended field plots. The agricultural field containing the test plots was treated with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. AWIs present in soil and biosolids were isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and analyzed by full-scan gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results for 18 AWIs were not evaluated due to their presence in field blank QC samples, and another 34 did not have sufficient detection frequency in samples to analyze trends in data. A total of 17 AWIs, including 4-nonylphenol, triclosan, and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate, were present in runoff with acceptable data quality and frequency for subsequent interpretation. Runoff samples were collected 5 days prior to and 1, 9, and 35 days after biosolids application. Of the 17 AWIs considered, 14 were not detected in pre-application samples, or their concentrations were much smaller than in the sample collected one day after application. A range of trends was observed for individual AWI concentrations (typically from 0.1 to 10 μg/L) over the course of the study, depending on the combination of partitioning and degradation mechanisms affecting each compound most strongly. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize anthropogenic contaminants from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters and redistribute them to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. For 14 of 17 compounds examined, the potential for runoff remobilization during rainstorms persists even after three 100-year rainstorm-equivalent simulations and the passage of a month.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Metolachlor metabolite (MESA) reveals agricultural nitrate-N fate and transport in Choptank River watershed

Over 50% of streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have been rated as poor or very poor based on the index of biological integrity. The Choptank River estuary, a Bay tributary on the eastern shore, is one such waterway, where corn and soybean production in upland areas of the watershed contribute significant loads of nutrients and sediment to streams. We adopted a novel approach utilizing the relationship between the concentration of nitrate-N and the stable, water-soluble herbicide degradation product MESA {2-[2-ethyl-N-(1-methoxypropan-2-yl)-6-methylanilino]-2-oxoethanesulfonic acid} to distinguish between dilution and denitrification effects on the stream concentration of nitrate-N in agricultural subwatersheds. The ratio of mean nitrate-N concentration/(mean MESA concentration * 1000) for 15 subwatersheds was examined as a function of percent cropland on hydric soil. This inverse relationship (R 2 = 0.65, p < 0.001) takes into consideration not only dilution and denitrification of nitrate-N, but also the stream sampling bias of the croplands caused by extensive drainage ditch networks. MESA was also used to track nitrate-N concentrations within the estuary of the Choptank River. The relationship between nitrate-N and MESA concentrations in samples collected over three years was linear (0.95 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.99) for all eight sampling dates except one where R 2 = 0.90. This very strong correlation indicates that nitrate-N was conserved in much of the Choptank River estuary, that dilution alone is responsible for the changes in nitrate-N and MESA concentrations, and more importantly nitrate-N loads are not reduced in the estuary prior to entering the Chesapeake Bay. Thus, a critical need exists to minimize nutrient export from agricultural production fields and to identify specific conservation practices to address the hydrologic conditions within each subwatershed. In well drained areas, removal of residual N within the cropland is most critical, and practices such as cover crops which sequester the residual N should be strongly encouraged. In poorly drained areas where denitrification can occur, wetland restoration and controlled drained structures that minimize ditch flow should be used to maximize denitrification.

Choptank River Watershed↗

Prediction, time variance, and classification of hydraulic response to recharge in two karst aquifers

Many karst aquifers are rapidly filled and depleted and therefore are likely to be susceptible to changes in short-term climate variability. Here we explore methods that could be applied to model site-specific hydraulic responses, with the intent of simulating these responses to different climate scenarios from high-resolution climate models. We compare hydraulic responses (spring flow, groundwater level, stream base flow, and cave drip) at several sites in two karst aquifers: the Edwards aquifer (Texas, USA) and the Madison aquifer (South Dakota, USA). A lumped-parameter model simulates nonlinear soil moisture changes for estimation of recharge, and a time-variant convolution model simulates the aquifer response to this recharge. Model fit to data is 2.4% better for calibration periods than for validation periods according to the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, which ranges from 0.53 to 0.94 for validation periods. We use metrics that describe the shapes of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) obtained from convolution modeling to make comparisons in the distribution of response times among sites and between aquifers. Time-variant IRFs were applied to 62% of the sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) of metrics describing the shapes of the IRFs indicates three principal components that together account for 84% of the variability in IRF shape: the first is related to IRF skewness and temporal spread and accounts for 51% of the variability; the second and third largely are related to time-variant properties and together account for 33% of the variability. Sites with IRFs that dominantly comprise exponential curves are separated geographically from those dominantly comprising lognormal curves in both aquifers as a result of spatial heterogeneity. The use of multiple IRF metrics in PCA is a novel method to characterize, compare, and classify the way in which different sites and aquifers respond to recharge. As convolution models are developed for additional aquifers, they could contribute to an IRF database and a general classification system for karst aquifers.

South Dakota, Texas↗

Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in Southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products

The region of southern Africa (SA) has a fragile food economy and is vulnerable to frequent droughts. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity impacts require early warning of droughts —preferably as early as possible before the harvest season (typically, starting in April) and lean season (typically, starting in November). Hydrologic monitoring and forecasting systems provide a unique opportunity to support early warning efforts, since they can provide regular updates on available rootzone soil moisture (RZSM), a critical variable for crop yield, and provide forecasts of RZSM by combining the estimates of antecedent soil moisture conditions with climate forecasts. For SA, this study documents the predictive capabilities of RZSM products from a recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS). Results show that the NHyFAS products would have identified the regional severe drought event—which peaked during December-February of 2015/2016—at least as early as November 1, 2015. Next, it is shown that during 1982-2016, February RZSM forecasts [monitoring product] available in early November [early March] have a correlation of 0.49 [0.79] with the detrended regional crop yield. It is also found that when the February RZSM forecast [monitoring product] available in early November [early March] is indicated to be in the lowest tercile, the detrended regional crop yield is below normal about two-thirds of the time [always], at least over the sample years considered. Additionally, it is shown that February RZSM forecast [monitoring product] can provide “out-of-sample” crop yield forecasts with comparable [substantially better with 40% reduction in mean error] skill to December-February ENSO. These results indicate that the NHyFAS products can effectively support food insecurity early warning in the SA region. Finally, since a framework similar to NHyFAS can be used to provide RZSM monitoring and forecasting products over other regions of the globe, this case study also demonstrates potential for supporting food insecurity early warning globally.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Sources and dispersal of land-based runoff from small Hawaiian drainages to a coral reef: Insights from geochemical signatures

Land-based sediment and contaminant runoff is a major threat to coral reefs, and runoff reduction efforts would benefit from knowledge of specific runoff sources. Geochemical signatures of small drainage basins were determined in the fine fraction of soil and sediment, then used in the nearshore region of a coral reef-fringed urban embayment on southeast Oahu, Hawaii, to describe sources and dispersal of land-based runoff. The sedimentary rare earth element ratio (La/Yb)N showed a clear distinction between the two main rock types in the overall contributing area, tholeiitic and alkalic olivine basalt. Based on this geochemical signature it was apparent that the majority of terrigenous sediment on the reef flat originated from geologically old tholeiitic drainages. Sediment from one of five tholeiitic drainages had a distinct geochemical signature, and sediment with this signature was dispersed on the reef flat 2 km west and 150 m offshore of the contributing basin. Sediment and the anthropogenic metals Cd, Pb, and Zn were entrained in runoff from the most heavily urbanized region of the watershed. Although anthropogenic Cd and Zn had localized distributions close to shore, anthropogenic Pb was found associated with fine sediment on the westernmost part of the reef flat and 400 m offshore, illustrating how trade-wind-driven sediment transport can increase the scale of runoff impacts to nearshore communities. Our findings show that sediment geochemical signatures can provide insights about the source and dispersal of land-based runoff in shallow coastal environments. The application of such knowledge to watershed management and habitat remediation efforts can aid in the protection and restoration of runoff-impacted coastal ecosystems worldwide.

Hawaii↗

Effects of surface run-off on the transport of agricultural chemicals to ground water in a sandplain setting

An experiment was conducted at a depressional (lowland) and an upland site in sandy soils to evaluate the effects of surface run-off on the transport of agricultural chemicals to ground water. Approximately 16.5 cm of water was applied to both sites during the experiment, representing a natural precipitation event with a recurrence interval of approximately 100 years. Run-off was quantified at the lowland site and was not detected at the upland site during the experiment. Run-off of water to the lowland site was the most important factor affecting differences in the concentrations and fluxes of the agricultural chemicals between the two sites. Run-off of water to the lowland site appears to have played a dual role by diluting chemical concentrations in the unsaturated zone as well as increasing the concentrations at the water table, compared to the upland site. Concentrations of chloride, nitrate and atrazine plus metabolites were noticeably greater at the water table than in the unsaturated zone at both sites. The estimated mass flux of chloride and nitrate to the water table during the test were 5–2 times greater, respectively, at the lowland site compared to the upland site, whereas the flux of sulfate and atrazine plus metabolites was slightly greater at the upland site. Results indicate that matrix flow of water and chemicals was the primary process causing the observed differences between the two sites. Results of the experiment illustrate the effects of heterogeneity and the complexity of evaluating chemical transport through the unsaturated zone.

Science of the Total Environment↗

The Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site and ruptures crossing the boundary between the Provo and Salt Lake City segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, United States

How structural segment boundaries modulate earthquake behavior is an important scientific and societal question, especially for the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) where urban areas lie along multiple fault segments. The extent to which segment boundaries arrest ruptures, host moderate magnitude earthquakes, or transmit ruptures to adjacent fault segments is critical for understanding seismic hazard. To help address this outstanding issue, we conducted a paleoseismic investigation at the Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site (TR site) along the ∼7-km-long Fort Canyon segment boundary, which links the Provo (59 km) and Salt Lake City (40 km) segments of the WFZ. At the TR site, we logged two trenches which were cut across sub-parallel traces of the fault, separated by ∼175 m. Evidence from these exposures leads us to infer that at least 3 to 4 earthquakes have ruptured across the segment boundary in the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating of soil material developed below and above fault scarp colluvial packages and within a filled fissure constrains the age of the events. The most recent event ruptured the southern fault trace between 0.2 and 0.4 ka, the penultimate event ruptured the northern fault trace between 0.6 and 3.4 ka, and two prior events occurred between 1.4 and 6.2 ka (on the southern fault trace) and 7.2 and 8.1 ka (northern fault trace). Colluvial wedge heights of these events ranged from 0.7 to 1.2 m, indicating the segment boundary experiences surface ruptures with more than 1 m of vertical displacement. Given these estimates, we infer that these events were greater than Mw 6.7, with rupture extending across the entire segment boundary and portions of one or both adjacent fault segments. The Holocene recurrence of events at the TR site is lower than the closest paleoseismic sites at the adjacent fault segment endpoints. The contrasts in recurrence rates observed within 15 km of the Fort Canyon fault segment boundary may be explained conceptually by a leaky segment boundary model which permits spillover events, ruptures centered on the segment boundary, and segmented ruptures. The TR site demonstrates the utility of paleoseismology within segment boundaries which, through corroboration of displacement data, can demonstrate rupture connectivity between fault segments and test the validity of rupture models.

Utah↗

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r 2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300–500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Stratigraphy and palaeoclimatic significance of Late Quaternary loess-palaeosol sequences of the Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle in central Alaska

Loess is one of the most widespread subaerial deposits in Alaska and adjacent Yukon Territory and may have a history that goes back 3 Ma. Based on mineralogy and major and trace element chemistry, central Alaskan loess has a composition that is distinctive from other loess bodies of the world, although it is quartz-dominated. Central Alaskan loess was probably derived from a variety of rock types, including granites, metabasalts and schists. Detailed stratigraphic data and pedologic criteria indicate that, contrary to early studies, many palaeosols are present in central Alaskan loess sections. The buried soils indicate that loess sedimentation was episodic, or at least rates of deposition decreased to the point where pedogenesis could keep ahead of aeolian input. As in China, loess deposition and pedogenesis are likely competing processes and neither stops completely during either phase of the loess/soil formation cycle. Loess deposition in central Alaska took place before, and probably during the last interglacial period, during stadials of the mid-Wisconsin period, during the last glacial period and during the Holocene. An unexpected result of our geochronological studies is that only moderate loess deposition took place during the last glacial period. Our studies lead us to conclude that vegetation plays a key role in loess accumulation in Alaska. Factors favouring loess production are enhanced during glacial periods but factors that favour loess accumulation are diminished during glacial periods. The most important of these is vegetation; boreal forest serves as an effective loess trap, but sparsely distributed herb tundra does not. Thus, thick accumulations of loess should not be expected where tundra vegetation was dominant and this is borne out by modern studies near the treeline in central Alaska. Much of the stratigraphic diversity of North American loess, including that found in the Central Lowlands, the Great Plains, and Alaska is explained by a new model that emphasizes the relative importance of loess production factors versus loess accumulation factors.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

A newly emerging thermal area in Yellowstone

Yellowstone is a large restless caldera that contains many dynamic thermal areas that are the surface expression of the deeper magmatic system. In 2018, using a Landsat 8 nighttime thermal infrared image, we discovered the emergence of a new thermal area located near Tern Lake on the northeast margin of the Sour Creek dome. A high-spatial-resolution airborne visible image from August 2017 revealed a large (~33,000 m2) area of recently fallen trees, mostly devoid of vegetation, with bright soil, similar to other nearby thermal areas. Field observations in August 2019 confirmed that this was a steam-heated acid-sulfate thermal area, with an arc-shaped zone of hydrothermally altered soil and heated ground, with surface temperatures of 60-80 °C, several steaming fumaroles, and boiling temperatures (93 °C) just beneath the surface. Fallen trees in contact with warm ground were being carbonized, yet there were some cooler areas with new trees growing. Observations of stressed or dying vegetation from archived satellite and airborne remote sensing data going back to 1994 indicated that this thermal area started emerging around 2000. It increased in size slowly until around 2005, when the radiative heat output started measurably increasing. From 2005 to 2012 it grew more rapidly; and from 2012 through 2019 the growth rate slowed and the heat output stabilized. We predict that this stabilizing trend will continue in the coming years. The initial formation of this new thermal area was not clearly linked to any distinct seismic or geodetic events, although the period of rapid growth partly coincided with a period of rapid local uplift, possibly suggesting a causative relationship. The identification of this emerging thermal area illustrates the importance of satellite thermal infrared imaging combined with high-spatial-resolution remote sensing data and field observations for mapping, measuring, and monitoring Yellowstone's thermal areas. It is also an example of the dynamics we expect to observe within large caldera systems like Yellowstone, where changes in the size and distribution of thermal areas are normal and do not indicate an impending eruption nor any significant changes in the broader magmatic system.

Wyoming↗

Mercury concentrations in water from an unconfined aquifer system, New Jersey coastal plain

Concentrations of total mercury (Hg) from 2 μg/L (the USEPA maximum contaminant level) to 72 μg/L in water from about 600 domestic wells in residential parts of eight counties in southern New Jersey have been reported by State and county agencies. The wells draw water from the areally extensive (7770 km 2 ) unconfined Kirkwood–Cohansey aquifer system, in which background concentrations of Hg are about 0.01 μg/L or less. Hg is present in most aquifer materials at concentrations <50 μg/kg, but is at 100–150 μg/kg in undisturbed surficial soils. No point sources of contamination to the affected areas have been conclusively identified. To determine whether high levels of Hg in ground water are related to a particular land use and (or) water chemistry, water samples from 105 wells that tap the aquifer system were collected by the United States Geological Survey. These included randomly selected domestic wells, domestic and observation wells in selected land uses, and sets of clustered observation wells—including two sets that are downgradient from residential areas with Hg-contaminated ground water. Hg concentrations in filtered samples (Hg f ) were at or near background levels in water from most wells, but ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 μg/L in water from nearly 20% of wells. Hg f concentrations from 0.0001 to 0.1 μg/L correlated significantly and positively with concentrations of other constituents associated with anthropogenic inputs (Ca, Cl, Na, and NO 3 ) and with dissolved organic carbon. Hg f concentrations >0.1 μg/L did not correlate significantly with concentrations of the inorganic constituents. Hg f concentrations near or exceeding 2 μg/L were found only in water from wells in areas with residential land use, but concentrations were at background levels in most water samples from undeveloped land. The spatial distribution of Hg-contaminated ground water appears to be locally and regionally heterogeneous; no extensive plumes of Hg contamination have yet been identified.

New Jersey↗

Alkaline hydrolysis/polymerization of 2,4,6-Trinitrotoluene: Characterization of products by 13C and 15N NMR

Alkaline hydrolysis has been investigated as a nonbiological procedure for the destruction of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) in explosives contaminated soils and munitions scrap. Nucleophilic substitutions of the nitro and methyl groups of TNT by hydroxide ion are the initial steps in the alkaline degradation of TNT. Potential applications of the technique include both in situ surface liming and ex situ alkaline treatment of contaminated soils. A number of laboratory studies have reported the formation of an uncharacterized polymeric material upon prolonged treatment of TNT in base. As part of an overall assessment of alkaline hydrolysis as a remediation technique, and to gain a better understanding of the chemical reactions underlying the hydrolysis/polymerization process, the soluble and precipitate fractions of polymeric material produced from the calcium hydroxide hydrolysis of unlabeled and 15 N-labeled TNT were analyzed by elemental analysis and 13 C and 15 N nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Spectra indicated that reactions leading to polymerization included nucleophilic displacement of nitro groups by hydroxide ion, formation of ketone, carboxyl, alcohol, ether, and other aliphatic carbons, conversion of methyl groups to diphenyl methylene carbons, and recondensation of aromatic amines and reduced forms of nitrite, including ammonia and possibly hydroxylamine, into the polymer. Compared to the distribution of carbons in TNT as 14% sp 3 - and 86% sp 2 -hybridized, the precipitate fraction from hydrolysis of unlabeled TNT contained 33% sp 3 - and 67% sp 2 -hybridized carbons. The concentration of nitrogen in the precipitate was 64% of that in TNT. The 15 N NMR spectra showed that, in addition to residual nitro groups, forms of nitrogen present in the filtrate and precipitate fractions include aminohydroquinone, primary amide, indole, imine, and azoxy, among others. Unreacted nitrite was recovered in the filtrate fraction. The toxicities and susceptibilities to microbial or chemical degradation of the polymeric materials remain unknown.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Survey of organic wastewater contaminants in biosolids destined for land application

In this study, the presence, composition, and concentrations of organic wastewater contaminants (OWCs) were determined in solid materials produced during wastewater treatment. This study was undertaken to evaluate the potential of these solids, collectively referred to as biosolids, as a source of OWCs to soil and water in contact with soil. Nine different biosolid products, produced by municipal wastewater treatment plants in seven different states, were analyzed for 87 different OWCs. Fifty-five of the OWCs were detected in at least one biosolid product. The 87 different OWCs represent a diverse cross section of emerging organic contaminants that enter wastewater treatment plants and may be discharged without being completely metabolized or degraded. A minimum of 30 and a maximum of 45 OWCs were detected in any one biosolid. The biosolids used in this study are produced by several production methods, and the plants they originate from have differing population demographics, yet the percent composition of total OWC content, and of the most common OWCs, typically did not vary greatly between the biosolids tested. The summed OWC content ranged from 64 to 1811 mg/kg dry weight. Six biosolids were collected twice, 3−18 months apart, and the total OWC content of each biosolid varied by less than a factor of 2. These results indicate that the biosolids investigated in this study have OWC compositions and concentrations that are more similar than different and that biosolids are highly enriched in OWCs (as mass-normalized concentrations) when compared to effluents or effluent-impacted water. These results demonstrate the need to better describe the composition and fate of OWCs in biosolids since about 50% of biosolids are land applied and thus become a potentially ubiquitous nonpoint source of OWCs into the environment.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

California↗

Implications of model selection: A comparison of publicly available, conterminous US-extent hydrologic component estimates

Spatiotemporally continuous estimates of the hydrologic cycle are often generated through hydrologic modeling, reanalysis, or remote sensing (RS) methods and are commonly applied as a supplement to, or a substitute for, in situ measurements when observational data are sparse or unavailable. This study compares estimates of precipitation ( P ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), runoff ( R ), snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture (SM) from 87 unique data sets generated by 47 hydrologic models, reanalysis data sets, and remote sensing products across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Uncertainty between hydrologic component estimates was shown to be high in the western CONUS, with median uncertainty (measured as the coefficient of variation) ranging from 11 % to 21 % for P , 14 % to 26 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R , 76 % to 84 % for SWE, and 36 % to 96 % for SM. Uncertainty between estimates was lower in the eastern CONUS, with medians ranging from 5 % to 14 % for P, 13 % to 22 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R , 53 % to 63 % for SWE, and 42 % to 83 % for SM. Interannual trends in estimates from 1982 to 2010 show common disagreement in R, SWE, and SM. Correlating fluxes and stores against remote-sensing-derived products show poor overall correlation in the western CONUS for ET and SM estimates. Study results show that disagreement between estimates can be substantial, sometimes exceeding the magnitude of the measurements themselves. The authors conclude that multimodel ensembles are not only useful but are in fact a necessity for accurately representing uncertainty in research results. Spatial biases of model disagreement values in the western United States show that targeted research efforts in arid and semiarid water-limited regions are warranted, with the greatest emphasis on storage and runoff components, to better describe complexities of the terrestrial hydrologic system and reconcile model disagreement.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗