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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (M 7.4), North Anatolian fault

The 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake occurred on the northern strand of the North Anatolian fault zone. The earthquake is associated with a 145-km-long surface rupture that extends from southwest of Düzce in the east to west of Hersek delta in the west. Detailed mapping of the surface rupture shows that it consists of five segments separated by releasing step-overs; herein named the Hersek, Karamürsel-Gölcük, İzmit-Sapanca Lake, Sapanca-Akyazi, and Karadere segments from west to east, respectively. The Hersek segment, which cuts the tip of a large delta plain in the western end of the rupture zone, has an orientation of N80°. The N70°-80°E-trending Karamürsel-Gölcük segment extends along the linear southern coasts of the İzmit Gulf between Karamürsel and Gölcük and produced the 470-cm maximum displacement in Gölcük. The northwest-southeast-striking Gölcük normal fault between the Karamürsel-Gölcük and İzmit-Sapanca segments has 2.3-m maximum vertical displacement. The maximum dextral offset along the İzmit-Sapanca Lake segment was measured to be about 3.5 m, and its trend varies between N80°E and east-west. The Sapanca-Akyazi segment trends N75°-85°W and expresses a maximum displacement of 5.2 m. The Karadere segment trends N65°E and produced up to 1.5-m maximum displacement. The Karadere and Sapanca-Akyazi segments form fan-shape or splaying ruptures near their eastern ends where the displacement also diminished.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

The Emerson Lake Body: A link between the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes, southern California, as inferred from gravity and magnetic anomalies

Gravity and magnetic data indicate a mafic crustal heterogeneity that lies between the Hector Mine 16 October 1999 ( M w 7.1) and Landers 28 June 1992 ( M w 7.3) epicenters. The aftershocks and ruptures of these two events avoided the interior of the body. Two- and three-dimensional modeling of the potential-field anomalies shows that the source, here named the Emerson Lake body (ELB), extends to a depth of approximately 15 km. The source of the gravity and magnetic anomaly is most likely Jurassic diorite because exposures of these rocks coincide with both gravity and magnetic highs west of Emerson Lake. Seismic tomography also shows higher velocities within the region of the ELB. We propose that the ELB was an important influence on the rupture geometry of the Landers and Hector Mine ruptures and that the ELB may have played a role in transferring of stress from the Landers earthquake to the Hector Mine hypocenter. Seismicity before the Landers earthquake also tended to avoid the ELB, suggesting that the ELB affects how strain is distributed in this part of the Mojave Desert. Thus, faults within the body should have limited rupture sizes and lower seismic hazard than faults bounding or outside this mafic crustal heterogeneity.

California↗

On the expected relationships among apparent stress, static stress drop, effective shear fracture energy, and efficiency

We consider expected relationships between apparent stress τ a and static stress drop Δτ s using a standard energy balance and find τ a = Δτ s (0.5 - ξ), where ξ is stress overshoot. A simple implementation of this balance is to assume overshoot is constant; then apparent stress should vary linearly with stress drop, consistent with spectral theories (Brune, 1970) and dynamic crack models (Madariaga, 1976). Normalizing this expression by the static stress drop defines an efficiency η sw = τ s a/Δτ s as follows from Savage and Wood (1971). We use this measure of efficiency to analyze data from one of a number of observational studies that find apparent stress to increase with seismic moment, namely earthquakes recorded in the Cajon Pass borehole by Abercrombie (1995). Increases in apparent stress with event size could reflect an increase in seismic efficiency; however, η sw for the Cajon earthquakes shows no such increase and is approximately constant over the entire moment range. Thus, apparent stress and stress drop co-vary, as expected from the energy balance at constant overshoot. The median value of η sw for the Cajon earthquakes is four times lower than η sw for laboratory events. Thus, these Cajon-recorded earthquakes have relatively low and approximately constant efficiency. As the energy balance requires η sw = 0.5 - ξ, overshoot can be estimated directly from the Savage-Wood efficiency; overshoot is positive for Cajon Pass earthquakes. Variations in apparent stress with seismic moment for these earthquakes result primarily from systematic variations in static stress drop with seismic moment and do not require a relative decrease in sliding resistance with increasing event size (dynamic weakening). Based on the comparison of field and lab determinations of the Savage-Wood efficiency, we suggest the criterion η sw > 0.3 as a test for dynamic weakening in excess of that seen in the lab.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Paleoseismic targets, seismic hazard, and urban areas in the Central and Eastern United States

Published geologic information from the central and eastern United States identifies 83 faults, groups of sand blows, named seismic zones, and other geological features as known or suspected products of Quaternary tectonic faulting. About one fifth of the features are known to contain faulted Quaternary materials or seismically induced liquefaction phenomena, but the origin and associated seismic hazard of most of the other features remain uncertain. Most of the features are in or near large urban areas. The largest cluster of features is in the Boston-Washington urban corridor (2005 estimated population: 50 million). The proximity of most features to populous areas identifies paleoseismic targets with potential to impact urban-hazard estimates.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Recording rotational and translational ground motions of two TAIGER explosions in northeastern Taiwan on 4 March 2008

Two explosions were set off on 4 March 2008 at the N3 explosion site in northeastern Taiwan. The code name for the first shot with 3000 kg explosives is N3P and that for the second shot with 750 kg explosives is N3. To record these two explosions, 8 triaxial rotational sensors, 13 triaxial accelerometers, and 12 six-channel, 24 bit dataloggers with Global Positioning System receivers were deployed to continuously record several hours before and after the explosions. These instruments were installed at about 250 m (1 station), 500 m (11 stations), and 600 m (1 station) from the explosions. The 11 stations form a center array with station spacing of about 5 m. Except for one rotational sensor, onscale records were obtained. Although the N3P shot used four times larger amounts of explosives than those used for the N3 shot, the peak ground translational acceleration and rotational velocity at the 13 station sites from the N3P shot are only about 1.5 times larger than those for the N3 shot. We also observed large variations (by tens of percent) of translational accelerations and rotational velocities at the center array with station spacing of about 5 m. The largest peak rotational velocity was observed for the x component: 2.74 and 1.75 mrad/sec at a distance of 254 m from the N3P and N3 shots, respectively. The main purpose of this article is to document our recordings of rotational and translation motions from two explosions in Taiwan and to release the data online for open access. The translational acceleration data from this experiment have been analyzed by Langston et al. (2009) , and we plan to submit an article with analysis of the rotational velocity data in the future.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

LiDAR-Assisted identification of an active fault near Truckee, California

We use high-resolution (1.5-2.4 points/m2) bare-earth airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery to identify, map, constrain, and visualize fault-related geomorphology in densely vegetated terrain surrounding Martis Creek Dam near Truckee, California. Bare-earth LiDAR imagery reveals a previously unrecognized and apparently youthful right-lateral strike-slip fault that exhibits laterally continuous tectonic geomorphic features over a 35-km-long zone. If these interpretations are correct, the fault, herein named the Polaris fault, may represent a significant seismic hazard to the greater Truckee-Lake Tahoe and Reno-Carson City regions. Three-dimensional modeling of an offset late Quaternary terrace riser indicates a minimum tectonic slip rate of 0.4 ?? 0.1 mm/yr.Mapped fault patterns are fairly typical of regional patterns elsewhere in the northern Walker Lane and are in strong coherence with moderate magnitude historical seismicity of the immediate area, as well as the current regional stress regime. Based on a range of surface-rupture lengths and depths to the base of the seismogenic zone, we estimate a maximum earthquake magnitude (M) for the Polaris fault to be between 6.4 and 6.9.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Seismotectonics and fault structure of the California Central Coast

I present and interpret new earthquake relocations and focal mechanisms for the California Central Coast. The relocations improve upon catalog locations by using 3D seismic velocity models to account for lateral variations in structure and by using relative arrival times from waveform cross-correlation and double-difference methods to image seismicity features more sharply. Focal mechanisms are computed using ray tracing in the 3D velocity models. Seismicity alignments on the Hosgri fault confirm that it is vertical down to at least 12 km depth, and the focal mechanisms are consistent with right-lateral strike-slip motion on a vertical fault. A prominent, newly observed feature is an ~25 km long linear trend of seismicity running just offshore and parallel to the coastline in the region of Point Buchon, informally named the Shoreline fault. This seismicity trend is accompanied by a linear magnetic anomaly, and both the seismicity and the magnetic anomaly end where they obliquely meet the Hosgri fault. Focal mechanisms indicate that the Shoreline fault is a vertical strike-slip fault. Several seismicity lineations with vertical strike-slip mechanisms are observed in Estero Bay. Events greater than about 10 km depth in Estero Bay, however, exhibit reverse-faulting mechanisms, perhaps reflecting slip at the top of the remnant subducted slab. Strike-slip mechanisms are observed offshore along the Hosgri–San Simeon fault system and onshore along the West Huasna and Rinconada faults, while reverse mechanisms are generally confined to the region between these two systems. This suggests a model in which the reverse faulting is primarily due to restraining left-transfer of right-lateral slip.

California↗

Evaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.

Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (Keranen et al., 2013; 2014; Weingarten et al., 2015; McNamara et al., 2015a), provides useful near-source (< 40 km) instrumental ground-motion observations for comparisons between central and eastern US (CEUS) induced (Rennolet et al., 2017) and tectonic (Goulet et al., 2014) earthquakes. In this study, we evaluate over 50 GMMs using two well-established probabilistic scoring methods: log likelihood (LLH) (Scherbaum et al., 2004; 2009) and multivariate LLH (MLLH) (Mak et al., 2017). The LLH approach compares the mean and standard deviation (σ) of the observed and modeled ground motions. The MLLH approach advances the LLH method by considering the variability (φ,τ) of multiple correlated variables namely intra- (within) and inter- (between) event residuals. For the probabilistic scoring GMM evaluation methods (LLH, MLLH), we compute horizontal component peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 1s period pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA1.0) total residuals using GMM software (nshmp-haz) recently implemented by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP). We observe from LLH and MLLH scores that: 1) newer GMMs with lower standard deviations (σ,φ,τ) score better than older GMMs with higher published uncertainty; 2) 2014 CEUS GMMs score better for CEUS tectonic earthquakes than induced earthquakes; 3) NGA-West2, G17 and A15 GMMs score well for CEUS induced earthquake ground motions; and 4) NGA-East GMMs score well for CEUS tectonic earthquake ground motions. We also use the LLH and MLLH scores to evaluate GMM weights applied in past USGS seismic hazard forecasts and to inform weighting of GMMs in future seismic hazard forecasts.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Post-glacial Mw 7.0-7.5 earthquakes on the North Olympic fault zone, Washington

Holocene crustal faulting in the northern Olympic Peninsula of Washington State manifests in a zone of west‐northwest‐striking crustal faults herein named the North Olympic fault zone, which extends for &#x223C; 80 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> ∼ 80 km ∼80 km along strike and includes the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault to the east and the Sadie Creek fault and newly discovered scarps to the west. This study focuses on the Sadie Creek fault, which extends for &gt; 14 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> > 14 km >14 km west‐northwest from Lake Crescent. Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery reveals the trace of the Sadie Creek fault and offset postglacial landforms showing a history of Holocene surface‐rupturing earthquakes dominated by dextral displacement along a steeply dipping fault zone. Paleoseismic trenches at two sites on the Sadie Creek fault reveal till and outwash overlain by progressively buried forest and wetland soils developed on scarp‐derived colluvial wedges. Trench exposures of complex faulting with subhorizontal slickenlines indicate dextral displacement with lesser dip slip. Correlation of broadly constrained time intervals for earthquakes at the Sadie Creek sites and those to the east along the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault is consistent with rupture of much of the length of the North Olympic fault zone three to four times: at about 11, 7, 3, and 1 ka, with a shorter rupture at about 8.5 ka. Dated ruptures from trenches only partially coincide with coseismic landslides and megaturbidites in Lake Crescent, indicating that some earthquakes did not trigger megaturbidites, and some turbidites were unrelated to local fault rupture. Landform mapping suggests single‐event dextral displacement of 4 &#xB1; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> 4 ± 1 m 4±1 m on the Sadie Creek fault. Inferred maximum rupture length and single‐event slip imply earthquake magnitudes M w "> M w Mw 7.0–7.5. Dextral slip rates of 1.3 &#x2013; 2.3 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm / yr "> 1.3 – 2.3 mm / yr 1.3–2.3 mm/yr and the &#x223C; 11 , 000 &#x2009;&#x2009; yr "> ∼ 11 , 000 yr ∼11,000 yr slip history suggest that the North Olympic fault zone is a prominent contributor to permanent strain in the northern Cascadia fore‐arc.

Washington↗

Automated, near real-time ground-motion processing at the U.S. Geological Survey

We describe automated ground‐motion processing software named gmprocess that has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in support of near‐real‐time earthquake hazard products. Because of the open‐source development process, this software has benefitted from the involvement and contributions of a broad community and has been used for a wider range of applications than was initially envisioned. Here, we give an overview and introduction to the software, including how it has leveraged other open‐source libraries. We highlight some key features that gmprocess provides, compare response spectra calculated with the automated processing approach of gmprocess to the response spectra provided by the Next Generation Attenuation projects, and summarize projects that have utilized gmprocess. These use‐cases demonstrate that this software development effort has been successfully leveraged in earthquake research activities both within and outside the USGS.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Onset of aftershocks: Constraints on the Rate-and-State model

Aftershock rates typically decay with time t after the mainshock according to the Omori–Utsu law, R (t)=K(c+t) −p ⁠ , with parameters K , c , and p . The rate‐and‐state (RS) model, which is currently the most popular physics‐based seismicity model, also predicts an Omori–Utsu decay with p = 1 and a c ‐value that depends on the size of the coseismic stress change. Because the mainshock‐induced stresses strongly vary in space, the c ‐value should vary accordingly. Short‐time aftershock incompleteness (STAI) in earthquake catalogs has prevented a detailed test of this prediction so far, but the newly developed a ‐positive method for reconstructing the true earthquake rate now allows its testing. Using previously published slip models, we calculate the coseismic stress changes for the six largest mainshocks in Southern California in recent decades and estimate the maximum shear as a scalar proxy of the coseismic stress tensor. Aftershock rates reconstructed for events in different stress ranges show that the rates follow a power law with p = 1 independent of stress with no clear sign of a c ‐value. The onset of the power‐law decay is abrupt and more delayed in areas with smaller stress changes. The observations do not necessarily contradict the RS model, as STAI limits the resolution for early aftershocks, and the RS model can reproduce the observations for specific Aσ values. However, the observations lead to strong constraints, namely Aσ <10 kPa and a power‐law decay of the background rate with distance to the fault, with exponent 2.7.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Wavelet Inversion for SliP (WISP): Open-source earthquake slip modeling software

Models of the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquake slip, termed finite-fault models, are a critical component of rapid earthquake and tsunami response, earthquake forecasting, seismic ground-motion estimates, and studies of earthquake kinematics. Here, we detail a newly released finite-fault modeling software, Wavelet Inversion for SliP (WISP), in use at the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) and available to the public. WISP version 1.1.0 allows inversion of teleseismic body and surface waves, as well as local strong-motion, static and dynamic Global Navigation Satellite System, and satellite imagery (e.g., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) observations on single or multiple planar fault segments. The software is used in NEIC rapid response of earthquakes M w ≥ 7, generally resulting in a published model within the first few hours after the event origin time. The rupture location and dimensions are then used as inputs to downstream products to estimate earthquake shaking, predict loss, and model the likelihood of secondary hazards, namely landslides and liquefaction. WISP is also used in research studies to evaluate the characteristics of complex ruptures including multifault ruptures and earthquake doublets, among others. The WISP version 1.1.0 software release is composed of Python-wrapped FORTRAN code to accomplish the inversion procedure. A simple command line interface facilitates ease of use even for those with only a cursory knowledge of Python scripting. WISP version 1.1.0 includes a Jupyter Notebook tutorial demonstrating use of the software for modeling the 2015 M w 8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake. In parallel with the tutorial, we demonstrate the typical usage of the WISP software using the M w 8.3 Illapel earthquake example here.

Seismological Research Letters↗

The value of hyperparameter optimization in phase-picking neural networks

The effectiveness of using neural networks for picking seismic phase arrival times has been demonstrated through several case studies, and seismic monitoring programs are starting to adopt the technology into their workflows. However, published models were designed and trained using rather arbitrary choices of hyperparameters, limiting their performance. In this study, we use phase picks from both routine and template-matching analyses from multiple regions (Ridgecrest, California; Kilauea, Hawaii; Yellowstone, Wyoming-Montana-Idaho) to test a hyperparameter optimization scheme for phase-picking neural networks and to evaluate their performance. We show that a published model, namely PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2019), can be simplified and improved with reasonable effort and there are preferred choices of hyperparameters that increase the performance. We also show that models optimized based on the arrival times reported in routine event catalogs consistently perform well when picking arrival times of smaller events, which is crucial for certain tasks from microseismicity to explosion monitoring.

California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Surface faulting along the Superstition Hills fault zone and nearby faults associated with the earthquakes of 24 November 1987

The M 6.2 Elmore Desert Ranch earthquake of 24 November 1987 was associated spatially and probably temporally with left-lateral surface rupture on many northeast-trending faults in and near the Superstition Hills in western Imperial Valley. Three curving discontinuous principal zones of rupture among these breaks extended northeastward from near the Superstition Hills fault zone as far as 9 km; the maximum observed surface slip, 12.5 cm, was on the northern of the three, the Elmore Ranch fault, at a point near the epicenter. Twelve hours after the Elmore Ranch earthquake, the M 6.6 Superstition Hills earthquake occurred near the northwest end of the right-lateral Superstition Hills fault zone. Surface rupture associated with the second event occurred along three strands of the zone, here named North and South strands of the Superstition Hills fault and the Wienert fault, for 27 km southeastward from the epicenter. In contrast to the left-lateral faulting, which remained unchanged throughout the period of investigation, the right-lateral movement on the Superstition hills fault zone continued to increase with time, a behavior that was similar to other recent historical surface ruptures on northwest-trending faults in the Imperial Valley region.

California↗

The 1954 and 1980 Algerian earthquakes: Implications for the characteristic-displacement model of fault behavior

Joint epicenter determination of earthquakes that occurred in northern Algeria near Ech Cheliff (named Orleansville in 1954 and El Asnam in 1980) shows that the earthquake of 9 September 1954 (M=6.5) occurred at nearly the same location as the earthquake of 10 October 1980 (M=7.3). The 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks were concentrated close to the boundaries of segment B (nomenclature of Deschamps et al., 1982; King and Yielding, 1984) of the 1980 fault system, which was to experience approximately 8 m of slip in the 1980 earthquake. Later aftershocks of the 1954 earthquake were spread over a broad area, notably in a region north of the 1980 fault system that also experienced many aftershocks to the 1980 earthquake. The closeness of the 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks to the 1980 segment B implies that the 1954 earthquake involved either 1) rupture of segment B proper, or 2) rupture of a distinct fault in the hanging wall of footwall block of segment B.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Preliminary report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector mine, California, earthquake

The M w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake occurred at 9:46 GMT on 16 October 1999. The event caused minimal damage because it was located in a remote, sparsely populated part of the Mojave Desert, approximately 47 miles east-southeast of Barstow, with epicentral coordinates 34.59°N 116.27°W and a hypocentral depth of 5 ± 3 km. Twelve foreshocks, M 1.9-3.8, preceded the mainshock during the previous twelve hours. All of these events were located close to the hypocenter of the mainshock. The Hector Mine earthquake occurred within the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). By virtue of its remote location, the societal impact of the Hector Mine earthquake was, fortunately, minimal in spite of the event's appreciable size. The ECSZ is characterized by high seismicity, a high tectonic strain rate, and a broad, distributed zone of north-northwest-trending faults (ECSZ; Figure 1 ; Dokka and Travis, 1990 ; Sauber et al., 1986 ; Sauber et al., 1994 ; Sieh et al., 1993 ). Data regarding the slip rates of faults within the ECSZ suggest that on the order of 15% of the Pacific-North American plate motion occurs along this zone ( Sauber et al., 1986 ; Wesnousky, 1986 ). Most of the faults in the ECSZ have low slip rates and long repeat times for major earthquakes, on the order of several thousands to tens of thousands of years. The occurrence of the Hector Mine earthquake within seven years and only about 30 km east of the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake suggests that the closely spaced surface faults in the ECSZ are mechanically related. The Hector Mine event involved rupture on two previously mapped fault zones—the Bullion Fault and an unnamed, more northerly-trending fault that is informally referred to in this paper as the Lavic Lake Fault (Dibblee, 1966 , 1967a , b ). Traces of the Bullion Fault exhibit evidence of Holocene displacement and were zoned as active in 1988 under California's Mquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act ( Hart and Bryant, 1997 ). The pattern of rupture along more than one named fault was also observed from the 1992 Landers earthquake ( Hauksson et al., 1993 ; Sieh et al., 1994). Much of the fault zone that produced the Hector Mine earthquake had been buried by relatively young stream deposits, and the fault scarps in bedrock have a subdued morphology. It appears that these faults have not experienced significant offset for perhaps 10,000 years or more ( Hart, 1987 ). Planned future investigations will refine the age of the last event on these faults. The portion of the Lavic Lake Fault that ruptured between the northern end of the Bullion Mountains and Lavic Lake had not previously been mapped. However, our field investigations have identified ancient, subdued fault scarps along portions of the 1999 rupture zone in this area. It thus appears that the entire segment of the Lavic Lake Fault that was involved in the 1999 event had ruptured in the past. As is typical for most faults within the Eastern California Shear Zone, the rate of movement along the Lavic Lake Fault may be quite slow (<1 mm/yr) and should produce earthquakes only infrequently. This event is a reminder that faults that have ruptured in late Quaternary time, but that lack evidence of Holocene displacement, can still produce earthquakes in this low-slip-rate tectonic setting. Additionally, the Hector Mine earthquake is noteworthy for a couple of other reasons. First, it clearly produced triggered seismicity over much of southern California, from the rupture zone toward the south-southwest in particular. Second, as we will discuss, the event may provide new data and insight into recently developed paradigms concerning earthquake interactions and the role of static stress changes. Questions such as these will, of course, be the subject of extensive detailed analyses in years to come. Fortunately, the Hector Mine sequence will provide one of the best data sets obtained to date for a significant earthquake in the United States. Because it occurred when major upgrades to both the regional seismic network (TriNet) and the regional geodetic network (SCIGN) were well underway, the Earth science community will have abundant high-quality data with which to explore the important and interesting questions that have been raised. In this paper, we present and discuss the basic data and preliminary results from the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

A volcano in North Carolina? A closer look at a tall tale

The legacy of the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Central United States, earthquakes is one of tremendous enigma. We are left with just enough contemporary information to provide a measure of constraint on the isoseismal contours and therefore magnitudes of the three principal events ( Nuttli, 1973 ; Street, 1982 ; Johnston, 1996 ; Hough et al., 2000 ), yet given the sparse population density and limited documentation of effects, our interpretations will always be plagued by a significant degree of uncertainty. Although the magnitudes of the three principal New Madrid main shocks will likely never be established with precision, all contemporary analyses (see above references) obtain magnitudes upward of 7 for all three events—large enough to produce perceptible ground motions as far away as the Atlantic seaboard. One enduring and interesting bit of folklore concerning the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 involves the tale of a volcanic eruption in North Carolina at the time of the first main shock on 16 December 1811. The site of this supposed volcano was approximately 750 km east of the main shock and 40 km northwest of Asheville, North Carolina, at an area known in the early 1800's as “the springs” or “the warm springs” ( Figure 1 ). I will henceforth refer to the location by the name of the town that exists there now: Hot Springs. The tale has merited a brief mention in some modern treatises on the New Madrid sequence. For example, Penick ( 1981 ) mentions the 1812 letter by Asheville, North Carolina resident John Clarke Edwards that described the supposed eruption. Penick ( 1981 ) goes on to note that the letter was quickly discredited as a hoax.

North Carolina↗

The Commerce geophysical lineament and its possible relation to Mesoproterozoic igneous complexes and large earthquakes in the central Illinois Basin

New inversions of existing magnetic and gravity data lead to insights on upper crustal structures in the central Illinois basin. The results of 2D and 3D inversion techniques suggest that the source of the Commerce geophysical lineament follows the southeast boundary of a dense and magnetic, northeast-trending igneous center, named the Vincennes igneous center. Thus the Commerce geophysical lineament, defining the 5- to 10-km-wide Commerce deformation zone, appears to have influenced the structural development of the Vincennes igneous center. Overlying this igneous center is the Centralia seismic-reflection sequence, expressed as highly coherent reflectors ( McBride and Kolata, 1999 ). We suggest that the buried Vincennes igneous center is the source of inferred volcanic units of the Centralia sequence and is related to a rifted margin or a Proterozoic plate boundary. A comparison of gravity and magnetic fields over the Vincennes igneous center and the St. Francois Mountains igneous center in southeastern Missouri suggests that the associated sources in these regions are similar in composition and perhaps origin. Such a conclusion, although speculative, suggests that ∼1.47 Ga-year-old volcanic fields of high-silica rocks, with more abundant mafic components at depth, characterize basement in the regions of the Vincennes igneous center and the St. Francois Mountains. Further, we conclude that the Commerce deformation zone evolved in the Mesoproterozoic (1.1 to 1.5 Ga) as a major cratonic rheological boundary and was the focus of episodic reactivation related to varying stress regimes throughout its history. Spatial relations of the Commerce deformation zone with large Pleistocene and Holocene earthquakes suggest that the zone represents a major rheological boundary intimately related to both surface and deep structures and to the seismic hazard of the Illinois basin region. Assuming recent right-lateral slip along the Commerce deformation zone, we propose that a jog or left step in the Vincennes area leads to thrusting or a restraining bend, where associated stress accumulations may have resulted in nearby large prehistoric earthquakes and may also be the nucleation sites of future large earthquakes.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky↗