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USGS2014

Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2014

Simulation of the Lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, west-central Nevada, using PRMS and MODFLOW models

Walker Lake is a terminal lake in west-central Nevada with almost all outflow occurring through evaporation. Diversions from Walker River since the early 1900s have contributed to a substantial reduction in flow entering Walker Lake. As a result, the lake is receding, and salt concentrations have increased to a level in which Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi (Lahontan Cutthroat trout) are no longer present, and the lake ecosystem is threatened. Consequently, there is a concerted effort to restore the Walker Lake ecosystem and fishery to a level that is more sustainable. However, Walker Lake is interlinked with the lower Walker River and adjacent groundwater system which makes it difficult to understand the full effect of upstream water-management actions on the overall hydrologic system including the lake level, volume, and dissolved-solids concentrations of Walker Lake. To understand the effects of water-management actions on the lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, a watershed model and groundwater flow model have been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. The watershed model was developed using the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the groundwater flow model was constructed using the MODular groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW) and both were calibrated for the lower Walker River Basin. These models can be incorporated in an integrated Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW (GSFLOW) model of the lower Walker River Basin. Additionally, the MODFLOW model developed for this study is useful for efficiently simulating long-term and large-scale effects of water-management actions on groundwater hydrology, streamflow, and Walker Lake level, volume, and dissolved-solids concentrations. The lower Walker River Basin PRMS model (LWR_PRMS) was constructed using a subbasin approach to aid in development and calibration, and simulates a 30-year period from 1978 to 2007 using daily time steps. The LWR_PRMS was used to estimate the distribution of groundwater recharge specified in the MODFLOW model. The highest rates of groundwater recharge occur in the Wassuk Range beneath perennial and ephemeral stream channels, whereas lower rates of recharge occur beneath alluvial fans along mountain fronts. The total groundwater recharge estimated using PRMS was about 25,000 acre-feet per year. The lower Walker River Basin MODFLOW (LWR_MF) model simulates an 89-year period using monthly time steps. The LWR_MF was constructed with an initial steady-state simulation to represent dynamic equilibrium conditions from 1908 to 1918 and then a transient simulation representing the period 1919–2007. The model was calibrated using a combination of manual and automated methods of adjusting model parameters to minimize errors between model simulated results and weighted observations of groundwater levels, streamflows, and lake level. Hydrologic conditions simulated with the LWR_MF include the movement and change in storage of groundwater, and the water budgets for Walker River, Walker Lake, and the groundwater system. The LWR_MF computed dissolved-solids concentrations for Walker Lake using simulated lake volume and an assumed constant internal salt mass of 37.2 million tons. Effects of potential changes in water management on future conditions (scenarios) of the lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system and Walker Lake from 2011 to 2070 were evaluated. Several water-management scenarios were considered, including a baseline scenario that represents no changes in system management, improved irrigation efficiencies for the Walker River Indian Irrigation Project (WRIIP), a range of increased streamflows entering the lower Walker River Basin, and, the fallowing of fields on the WRIIP. For the baseline scenario, it was assumed that streamflow conditions from 1981 to 2010 will be repeated in the future. Results indicate that Walker Lake level and volume continue to decline but at a slower rate as the surface area of the lake becomes smaller and lake evaporation decreases. Dissolved-solids concentrations in Walker Lake continue to increase and increase much more rapidly during periods when minimal flows reach the lake due to a diminished lake volume. Alternatively, in years with high runoff, lake level increases are greater and dissolved-solids decreases are greater, compared with equivalent runoffs experienced during 1981–2010. The simulated effects of improving WRIIP efficiencies on Walker River streamflows, Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved-solids concentrations, and crop consumptive use, are compared with the baseline reference scenario for a range of irrigation efficiency improvements from 0 to 25 percent over 60 years. Results indicate that water is conserved through a reduction in irrigation-induced groundwater recharge and subsequent groundwater discharge through evapotranspiration. The conserved water mostly goes to increased streamflow to Walker Lake, followed by increased crop consumptive use, then increased evaporation from Weber Reservoir. The simulated effects of increased streamflows at Walker River at Wabuska streamgage (10301500) on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved-solids concentrations, and crop consumptive use, are compared with the baseline scenario after 60 years under two different management methods for Weber Reservoir. Results indicate Walker Lake level and dissolved-solids concentrations stabilized with increased irrigation-season streamflow of about 40,000 acre-feet per year at the Walker River at Wabuska streamgage. Walker Lake level increased, and dissolved-solids concentration decreased, with increased flows of 50,000 acre-feet per year or more. After 60 years with additional irrigation-season streamflows of 50,000 acre-feet per year, Walker Lake level increased by about 48 feet, and lake dissolved-solids concentrations decreased by about 3,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L). With 75,000 acre-feet per year of additional streamflow, Walker Lake level increased by 70 feet, and dissolved-solids concentration decreased by 7,600 milligrams per liter. The effects of fallowing of Walker River Indian Irrigation Project fields from 2007 to 2010 on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved solids were evaluated. Fallowing resulted in a near doubling of Walker River inflow to Walker Lake during this period, an increase in Walker Lake level of about 1.4 feet, and a decrease in dissolved-solids concentration of about 540 mg/L.

Nevada↗
USGS2014

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

California↗
USGS2017

Nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macrobenthos

Lower trophic levels support the prey fish on which most sport fish depend. Therefore, understanding the production potential of lower trophic levels is integral to the management of Lake Ontario’s fishery resources. Lower trophic-level productivity differs among offshore and nearshore waters. In the offshore, there is concern about the ability of the lake to support Alewife (Table 1) production due to a perceived decline in productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton whereas, in the nearshore, there is a concern about excessive attached algal production (e.g., Cladophora) associated with higher nutrient concentrations—the oligotrophication of the offshore and the eutrophication of the nearshore (Mills et al. 2003; Holeck et al. 2008; Dove 2009; Koops et al. 2015; Stewart et al. 2016). Even though the collapse of the Alewife population in Lake Huron in 2003 (and the associated decline in the Chinook Salmon fishery) may have been precipitated by a cold winter (Dunlop and Riley 2013), Alewife had not returned to high abundances in Lake Huron as of 2014 (Roseman et al. 2015). Failure of the Alewife population to recover from collapse has been attributed to declines in lower trophic-level production (Barbiero et al. 2011; Bunnell et al. 2014; but see He et al. 2015). In Lake Michigan, concerns of a similar Alewife collapse led to a decrease in the number of Chinook Salmon stocked. If lower trophic-level production declines in Lake Ontario, a similar management action could be considered. On the other hand, in Lake Erie, which supplies most of the water in Lake Ontario, eutrophication is increasing and so are harmful algal blooms. Thus, there is also a concern that nutrient levels and algal blooms could increase in Lake Ontario, especially in the nearshore. Solutions to the two processes of concern—eutrophication in the nearshore and oligotrophication in the offshore—may be mutually exclusive. In either circumstance, fisheries management needs information on the productivity of lower trophic levels in Lake Ontario. In this chapter, we review the status of lower trophic levels in Lake Ontario with special attention to the current (2008-2013) and previous (2003-2007) reporting periods. During the two reporting periods, three whole-lake surveys of lower trophic levels were conducted: the Lower Trophic Level Assessment (LOLA) in 2003 and 2008 (Makarewicz and Howell 2012; Munawar et al. 2015b) and the Cooperative Science and Management Initiative (CSMI) in 2013. Analyses of the CSMI data are ongoing. In addition to the three one-year sources of information on lower trophic levels, several multi-year sources of information are available, including data from the surveillance program conducted since 1965 by Environment Canada (EC) (Dove 2009), monitoring conducted since 1980 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO) (Barbiero et al. 2014; Reavie et al. 2014), sampling for a Bioindex Program at two stations, one offshore and one in the Eastern Basin, assessments of Mysis diluviana (formerly Mysis relicta) conducted since 1980 by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Johannsson et al. 1998, 2011) and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), and monitoring conducted since 1995 by the Biomonitoring Program (BMP) on the New York side of the lake (Holeck et al. 2015b). The BMP is a collaboration of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Cornell University.

Special Publication↗
USGS2023

Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) 6-year summary, Naval Outlying Landing Field, Imperial Beach, southwestern San Diego County, California, 2014–20

Executive Summary From 2014 to 2020, a Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) banding station (station) was operated at the Naval Outlying Landing Field (NOLF), Imperial Beach, in southwestern San Diego County, California. The station was established as part of a long-term monitoring program of Neotropical migratory bird populations on NOLF and helps Naval Base Coronado (NOLF is a component) meet the goals and objectives of the Department of Defense Partners in Flight program and the Birds and Migratory Birds Management Strategies of the Naval Base Coronado Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. The station was established in 2009 and has been in operation during the spring and summer since 2009 except for 2016 when it was not funded. The station was operated by AMEC Earth and Environmental, Inc., from 2009 to 2011, by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2012 to 2015, the San Diego Natural History Museum in 2017, and the U.S. Geological Survey again from 2018 to 2023. This report synthesizes results from 2014 to 2020. A prior report presents summaries and analyses from 2009 to 2013. The banding station at NOLF was operated according to the standard MAPS protocol with some exceptions. Ten mist nets used to capture birds were erected in fixed locations that remained consistent between and within years, with few minor relocations. Nets were open for 6 hours per day, once every 10 days (a netting period) for 13 netting periods starting April 1 each year. Occasionally, poor weather conditions (for example, rain, wind, or excessive heat) prevented net operation or forced nets to be closed early (or, rarely, late). Nets were checked periodically throughout the day and birds were removed, processed (leg bands affixed, measurements recorded), and released. From 2014 to 2020, we had 3,543 captures (including initial captures and recaptures) of a maximum of 3,264 year-unique captures (543±143 year-unique captures [the total number of individual birds captured for the first time each year]). The count of year-unique captures included 2,702 newly banded birds, 258 individuals that were recaptured from previous years, and 304 birds that were released unbanded (218 hummingbirds and 86 other birds that were intentionally released unbanded [game birds, and so forth] or escaped before banding). Individuals of 68 species were captured, 39 of which breed at or in the immediate vicinity of the MAPS banding station. Bird capture rate averaged 43±30 captures per day (corrected to account for variation in effort) for all years (range 7–163 effort-corrected captures per day) and species richness per year averaged 43±4. Bushtit ( Psaltriparus minimus ) was the most abundant species captured, followed by Orange-crowned Warbler ( Leiothlypis celata ), Wilson’s Warbler ( Cardellina pusilla ), House Finch ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ), and Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ). The mean adult sex ratio of all species combined across all years was 54:46 male:female. Adults averaged 73±12 percent of known age captures per year (range 59–94 percent), and juveniles averaged 27±12 percent (range 6–41 percent). Nineteen sensitive species were detected at NOLF (12 captured and 7 observed only). During 2014–20, we captured one State and federally endangered species, Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ); one federally threatened species, California Gnatcatcher ( Polioptila californica ); one State endangered species, Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ); and two State species of concern, Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) and Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). One additional State species of concern, Northern Harrier ( Circus hudsonius ), was observed at the MAPS banding station but not captured. Peregrine Falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) and White-tailed Kite ( Elanus leucurus ), California State fully protected species, also were observed at the MAPS banding station. Seven federal bird species of conservation concern—Calliope Hummingbird ( Selasphorus calliope ), Rufous Hummingbird ( Selasphorus rufus ), Allen’s Hummingbird ( Selasphorus sasin ), Nuttall’s Woodpecker ( Dryobates nuttallii ), Wrentit ( Chamaea fasciata ), California Thrasher ( Toxostoma redivivum ), and Lawrence’s Goldfinch ( Spinus lawrencei )—also were captured, and four additional federal bird species of conservation concern—Willet ( Tringa semipalmata ), Western Gull ( Larus occidentalis ), California Gull ( Larus californicus ), and Bullock’s Oriole ( Icterus bullockii )—were observed but not captured. Local population trends varied among species and years. From 2012 to 2019, year-round residents Bushtit, Song Sparrow, and Common Yellowthroat significantly decreased, whereas the migrant Least Bell’s Vireo increased. The total number of captures for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo was lowest in 2017, corresponding to the habitat damage caused by Kuroshio shot hole borer beetle ( Euwallacea kuroshio ) in the Tijuana River Valley. Annual productivity and annual adult survival were calculated for seven breeding species based on criteria used by the Institute for Bird Populations (Least Bell’s Vireo, Bushtit, Wrentit, House Wren [ Troglodytes aedon ], Song Sparrow, Orange-crowned Warbler, and Common Yellowthroat). Productivity was highest for most species in 2010 and 2019, years with high precipitation, and lowest in 2014 and 2018, years with low precipitation. Song Sparrow demonstrated the highest productivity among species and Least Bell’s Vireo had the lowest productivity. Annual adult survival was generally high from 2011 to 2012 and from 2018 to 2019. Bushtit had higher annual survival with lower late winter precipitation. Either temperature or precipitation was associated with productivity for all species except Wrentit, and with survival for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo and Common Yellowthroat. For most species, productivity was positively associated with precipitation, and both productivity and survival were negatively associated with temperature. Other studies have found that higher temperatures led to increased predation by snakes and birds and also increased vector-borne disease transmission, such as West Nile virus. Predicted regional increases in temperature over the next 30 years will likely affect the demographics of these species. The Song Sparrow population increased with higher breeding productivity during the previous year, and the Bushtit population increased with higher annual survival and higher productivity during the previous year. Aside from a possible positive association between survivorship and Common Yellowthroat population growth, productivity and survival rates did not appear to influence population change for other focal species.

California↗
USGS2004

Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: A southwestern migration workshop

The importance of migration stopover sites in ensuring that migratory birds successfully accomplish their journeys between breeding and non-breeding ranges has come to the forefront of avian research. Migratory birds that breed in western United States (US) and Canada and overwinter primarily in western Mexico migrate across the arid region of northern Mexico and southwestern US. Many of these migrants use lowland riparian stopover habitats, which comprise less than 0.1% of the western U.S. landscape. These habitats represent a significant conservation priority. Recognizing the importance of migration stopover habitats in the arid southwest, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Region 6 partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to support a project---“Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: patterns of geographic and habitat distribution.” A primary objective of the project was to convene a workshop for avian researchers, conservation professionals, and land managers involved in stopover needs of migratory birds that breed in western North America. The workshop included presentations on our current state of knowledge regarding passerine migration in western North America, techniques and technologies potentially useful in researching migration, and efforts that agencies and other partners are conducting within the realm of migration. Workshop presentations provided a backdrop for subsequent discussions, the goals of which were to identify research needs and initiate a coordinated approach to research of western migration stopover ecology. Workshop presentations spanned a wide range of concerns and interests. Highlights included indications that mid- and high-elevation riparian and montane shrubland habitats may be as crucial to western migrants in fall migration as lowland riparian habitats are in spring migration. Comparisons of eastern versus western migration systems elucidated large differences in stopover habitats used and the intensity with which certain types are used, underscoring the potential need to develop separate management approaches for eastern and western stopover sites. Presentations on techniques and technology for migration research revealed that rate of lipid deposition can serve as an indicator of habitat quality; that genetics and stable isotope analyses of feathers can be valuable tools to elucidate linkages between breeding and wintering areas; that radar imagery can be used to track large-scale movement patterns and habitat use; and that there are analytical options for combining multiple sources of information. Other presentations focused on partnership perspectives (USFWS and Sonoran Joint Venture), the genesis of a western migration monitoring network, premises of Coordinated Bird Monitoring, and how collaborative efforts could benefit migration research (e.g., combined bird and bat migration studies; linking avian researchers with fluvial geomorphologists; linking research throughout western North America; linking surveys and banding). Priority research needs and questions identified during the open discussions fell into three main categories: (1) habitat/landscape/climate relationships, (2) en route bird distribution patterns, and (3) general migration ecology. Tasks within these categories included: define the relative importance of various habitat types to migrants in spring and fall, determine what distinguishes high- from poor-quality stopover habitat; determine geographic patterns of loss in stopover habitats; model landscape attributes associated with species richness and abundance; identify effects of climate change and current climate anomalies on plant phonologies, associated insect flushes, and timing of migration; and determine effects of hydrologic changes on riparian vegetation, food availability, and stopover habitat quality. Workshop participants discussed a coordinated approach for addressing immediate research needs regarding migration patterns and crucial stopover sites and types. They envisioned a three­-tiered, coordinated approach: (1) long-term research to address effects of climate change and other large-scale patterns, (2) intensive, short-term survey and monitoring efforts using a stratified random design within habitats of interest to elucidate regional patterns of distribution and habitat use, and (3) research conducted at existing survey and banding sites to address more in-depth questions (e.g., rates of lipid deposition, microhabitat use, isotope analyses). There was considerable interest in developing common research proposals to blend the broad expertise represented at this workshop. A second meeting is recommended to build on the momentum of these discussions, to facilitate collaborations, and further the goals of integrated approaches to broadscale research on migration stopover ecology.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗
USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2018

Drain tiles and groundwater resources: Understanding the relations

Executive Summary Drainage for agricultural production over the past 150 years has been an integral component of human-driven change to Minnesota’s rural landscapes. Benefits of drainage Historically, poorly drained soils across much of the State would often remain saturated or flooded after spring snowmelt, preventing timely farm operations such as tilling and planting crops (Arneman, 1963). Installation of agricultural drainage, both surface ditches and subsurface drainage, accelerated transport of water off farm fields and imparted producers higher crop yields (Beauchamp, 1987; Stoner and others, 1993). Agricultural drainage offered many other benefits such as preventing crop drown out, aerating the soil profile for improved plant growth, limiting surface runoff and soil erosion, and allowing farmers better access to croplands (Fausey and others, 1987). Without agricultural drainage on much of Minnesota’s croplands, it would have been difficult to realize high enough crop yields to remain economically viable. Environmental concerns While drainage of Minnesota croplands provided the benefits mentioned above, several environmental concerns result. These include wetland loss, degradation of downstream water quality, and reduced [potential for] recharge. Early agricultural drainage efforts (pre-20th century) led to the disappearance of much of Minnesota’s natural wetlands. Increased focus on preventing or mitigating wetland loss over the last 50 years has helped curtail further losses, even as agricultural drainage proceeds. Prior to establishment of Minnesota statehood, wetlands accounted for more than 10 million acres in Minnesota, including prairie wetlands, peatlands, and forest wetlands that comprised approximately 19 percent of the total land area (Palmer, 1915; King, 1980). In 2018, only half of Minnesota’s pre-settlement wetlands remain, mostly in parts of the State that have not experienced widespread drainage, such as northern Minnesota. Water-quality monitoring has shown that agricultural drainage, in particular the practice of subsurface drainage, provides a direct flow path for nutrient (nitrogen and soluble phosphorus) losses to surface water resources. The negative consequences of agricultural drainage on surface water quality are well documented (for example, Dinnes and others, 2002; Kladivko and others, 2004; Richards and others, 2008; Rozemeijer and others, 2010; Schottler and others, 2013). Agricultural basins with a high percentage of agricultural drainage have been implicated as part of the cause of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia zone due to excessive nitrogen export (Goolsby and Battaglin, 2001; Randall and Mulla, 2001). The connection of hydrological effects of agricultural subsurface drainage on groundwater recharge and aquifers, on the other hand, has not been well-established. Agricultural subsurface drainage intercepts infiltrating water below croplands and directly discharges the water to nearby surface waters. However, the size of the water balance shift from drained water that would have evapotranspired or run off the land to drained water that would recharge underlying aquifers has been poorly characterized (Schuh, 2008). Drain Tiles and Groundwater Given the poor accounting of subsurface drainage effects on groundwater resources, the Minnesota Ground Water Association (MGWA) deemed it imperative that we document these effects so that groundwater resources in agricultural regions with substantial drainage can be effectively managed. This white paper documents the relations of drain tiles and groundwater resources and discusses the historical significance of agricultural drainage practices, the recognized positive benefits and potential negative consequences of agricultural drainage practices, and the gaps in understanding of the connections between agricultural drainage and groundwater resources. The major messages emerged from the findings of this white paper are: Complex history. Minnesota has a long history of agricultural drainage, spanning over 150 years. Agricultural drainage, and the eventual widespread usage of subsurface drainage, can be separated into at least four distinct periods of time: (a) early drainage to get water off the land, pre-20th century; (b) the boom and bust era (1900-1945); (c) postwar resurgence of subsurface drainage and early conservation efforts (1945-1960); and, (d) emergence of the environmental movement (1960 to present). The State’s regulatory framework that both allowed for drainage and controlled its usage during these periods is complicated and has been governed by a patchwork of both State and Federal statutes. Drainage Provinces. This white paper advances the concept of tile drainage provinces to aid in the discussion of regional differences in subsurface drainage and its overall effect on groundwater resources. Built upon the concept of groundwater provinces (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2001), three distinct tile drainage provinces were conceptualized: (1) the Southeastern Province; (2) the SouthCentral Province; and, (3) the Western Province. The distinct geology and the soils that developed in these regions have implications for each region’s subsurface drainage density and the potential implications for groundwater. Knowledge gaps. Several critical knowledge gaps are identified in this paper, creating opportunities for further research to improve our understanding for better managed water resources: Extent of drainage is unknown. Direct estimates of the extent of subsurface drainage do not exist in Minnesota. However, several indirect methods have been utilized to estimate subsurface drainage, from the field-scale to countylevel through the use of geographic information system (GIS) analysis and aerial photography. Based on a 2012 U.S. Geological Survey estimate of subsurface drainage extent (Nakagaki and Wieczorek, 2016), about 21% of the land area in Minnesota has some density of subsurface drainage. Effect of drainage on underlying aquifers is unknown. A basic understanding of unconfined and confined aquifers and their recharge is necessary to connect any hydrological effects from agricultural drainage to groundwater. The basic goal of subsurface drainage to efficiently drain saturated soils clearly alters the water balance in croplands. However, its overall effect on groundwater resources has been poorly characterized, and is in large part determined by the geology below drained areas and the arrangement of underlying aquifers. Water balance shifts. An improved understanding of historical water balance shifts from pre- to post-drainage periods is necessary to understand long-term implications on net groundwater recharge. Also, more direct field-scale studies and indirect modeling studies are needed to characterize water budgets for fields with subsurface drainage.

Minnesota↗
USGS2024

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland↗
USGS2023

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2017

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2016 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2015. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. Capture-recapture analyses indicated that with a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both Lost River sucker subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) from 1999 to 2015. Survival was notably lower for males from the river in 2000, 2006, and 2012, and for the shoreline areas in 2002. From 2001 to 2015, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 64 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 56 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation from 2002 to 2015. Shortnose suckers experienced lower and more variable annual survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2003, 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, female survival was low in 1999 and 2000 while male survival was low in 2002. Survival estimate precision in early years of the study; however, are poor. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial from 2001 to 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable from 2006 to 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 78 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 77 percent from 2001 to 2015. Decreases in abundance for both sexes are likely greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains distressed, especially for SNS. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗
USGS2011

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and short nose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2009

Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were reencountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout the spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during spring 2009 were used to describe the spawning migrations in that year and also were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics over the last decade. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish was examined for any additional evidence of recruitment. Survival and recruitment estimates were combined to estimate changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2007. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). One subpopulation of LRS migrates into tributaries to spawn, similar to shortnose suckers (SNS), whereas the other subpopulation spawns at upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2009, we captured and tagged 781 LRS at four shoreline areas and recaptured an additional 638 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,056 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Sucker Springs and Cinder Flats. In the Williamson River, we captured and tagged 3,008 LRS and 287 SNS, and recaptured 271 LRS and 81 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote antennas that spanned the river downstream of the tributary spawning areas detected a total of 12,509 LRS and 5,023 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream in mid-April when water temperatures were rising and near or greater than 10°C. In contrast, peaks in upstream passage of SNS occurred in late April and early May when water temperatures were rising and near or greater than 12°C. Finally, an additional 1,569 LRS and 1,794 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at prespawn staging areas in the northeastern portion of the lake. Of these, 209 of the LRS and 452 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS, encounter histories showed that nearly all of the fish captured at the staging areas were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the tributaries. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 9,000 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the tributaries included more than 14,000 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (>0.9) between 1999 and 2007. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the tributaries in 2000, for males from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the tributaries in 2006. Recruitment of new individuals into either spawning population was trivial in all years between 2002 and 2007. Over that period, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation declined by 44–53 percent and the abundance of females declined by 25–38 percent. Similarly, the abundance of males in the tributary spawning subpopulation declined by as much as 39 percent and the abundance of females declined by as much as 33 percent. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 12,000 individuals. The majority of annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2007 were high (>0.8), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. The survival of both sexes was particularly low in both 2001 and 2004, and male survival also was somewhat low in 2002 and 2006. Similar to LRS, recruitment of new individuals into the spawning population was trivial in all years between 2001 and 2007. Over that period, the abundance of male SNS declined by 58–80 percent and the abundance of females declined by 52–73 percent. Despite relatively high survival in most years, both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Indeed, all populations appear to be largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is most dire for shortnose suckers. Survival analyses show that the two species do not necessarily experience poor survival in the same years and that poor survival on an annual scale is not predictable from fish die-offs observed in the summer and fall. Future analyses will explore the connections between annual sucker survival and environmental factors of interest, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2011

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during spring 2011 were used to describe the spawning migrations in that year and also were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish was examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Survival and recruitment estimates were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations in 2010. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). One subpopulation of LRS migrates into tributaries to spawn, similar to shortnose suckers (SNS), whereas the other subpopulation spawns at upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2011, we captured, tagged, and released 806 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 1,006 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,547 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Sucker Springs and Cinder Flats. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 2,742 LRS and 123 SNS, and recaptured 376 LRS and 58 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at four different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 16,494 LRS and 5,450 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream between mid-April and mid-May when water temperatures were rising and near or greater than 10 °C. In contrast, the largest peaks in upstream passage of SNS occurred in early and mid-May when water temperatures were rising and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 875 LRS and 1,600 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern portion of the lake. Of these, 191of the LRS and 571 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS, encounter histories showed that more than 90 percent of the fish captured at the staging areas were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the tributaries. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 10,500 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the tributaries included more than 22,000 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.9) between 1999 and 2009. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the tributaries in 2000, for both sexes from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the tributaries in 2006. Between 2001 and 2010, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by 50–60 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 29–44 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of the river spawning subpopulation of LRS has increased substantially since 2006. The increase over this period was largely due to large estimated recruitment events in 2003, 2006, and 2008. We know that the estimate in 2006 is substantially biased in favor of recruitment due to a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2003 and 2008 estimates as well because very few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in those years. If we assume that little or no recruitment has occurred, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation decreased by more than 40 percent between 2002 and 2010. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 15,500 individuals. The majority of annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2009 were high (greater than 0.8), but SNS did experience more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. The survival of both sexes was particularly low in both 2001 and 2004, and male survival also was somewhat low in 2002 and 2006. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicated that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial in nearly all years between 2001 and 2009. As a result, the abundance of males decreased by 64–82 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 62–76 percent between 2001 and 2010. Despite relatively high survival in most years, both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the adult spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. In fact, fork length data indicate that all populations are largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is most dire for shortnose suckers. Future investigations should explore the connections between sucker recruitment and survival and various environmental factors, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2018

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Gaviota, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The map area is in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. The offshore part of the map area lies south of the steep south flank of the Santa Ynez M ountains . The crest of the range , which has a maximum elevation of about 760 m in the map area , lies about 4 km north of the shoreline. Gaviota is an unincorporated community that has a sparse population (less than 100), and the coastal zone is largely open space that is locally used for cattle grazing. The Union Pacific railroad tracks extend westward along the coast through the entire map area, within a few hundred meters of the shoreline. Highway 101 crosses the eastern part of the map area, also along the coast, then turns north (inland) and travels through Cañada de la Gaviota and Gaviota Pass en route to Buellton. Gaviota State Park lies at the mouth of Cañada de la Gaviota. West of Gaviota, the onland coastal zone is occupied by the Hollister Ranch, a privately owned, gated community that has no public access. The map area has a long history of petroleum exploration and development. Several offshore gas fields were discovered and were developed by onshore directional drilling in the 1950s and 1960s. Three offshore petroleum platforms were installed in adjacent federal waters in 1976 (platform “Honda”) and 1989 (platforms “Heritage” and “Harmony”). Local offshore and onshore operations were serviced for more than a century by the Gaviota marine terminal, which is currently being decommissioned and will be abandoned in an intended transition to public open space. The Offshore of Gaviota map area lies within the western Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight, and it is somewhat protected from large Pacific swells from the north and northwest by Point Conception and from south and southwest swells by offshore islands and banks. Much of the shoreline in the map area is characterized by narrow beaches that have thin sediment cover, backed by low (10- to 20-m-high) cliffs that are capped by a narrow coastal terrace. Beaches are subject to wave erosion during winter storms, followed by gradual sediment recovery or accretion in the late spring, summer, and fall months during the gentler wave climate. The map area lies in the western-central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, which is characterized by west-to-east transport of sediment from Point Arguello on the northwest to Hueneme and Mugu Canyons on the southeast. Sediment supply to the western and central part of the littoral cell is mainly from relatively small coastal watersheds. In the map area, sediment sources include Cañada de la Gaviota (52 km 2 ), as well as Cañada de la Llegua, Arroyo el Bulito, Cañada de Santa Anita, Cañada de Alegria, Cañada del Agua Caliente, Cañada del Barro, Cañada del Leon, Cañada San Onofre, and many others. Coastal-watershed discharge and sediment load are highly variable, characterized by brief large events during major winter storms and long periods of low (or no) flow and minimal sediment load between storms. In recent (recorded) history, the majority of high-discharge, high-sediment-flux events have been associated with El Niño phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climatic pattern. Shelf width in the Offshore of Gaviota map area ranges from about 4.3 to 4.7 km, and shelf slopes average about 1.0° to 1.2° but are highly variable because of the presence of the large Gaviota sediment bar. This bar extends southwestward for about 9 km from the mouth of Cañada de la Gaviota to the shelf break, is as wide as 2 km, and is by far the largest shore-attached sediment bar in the Santa Barbara Channel. The shelf is underlain by bedrock and variable amounts (0 to as much as 36 m in the Gaviota bar) of upper Quaternary sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The trend of the shelf break changes from about 276° to 236° azimuth over a distance of about 12 km, and it ranges in depth from about 91 m to as shallow as 62 to 73 m where significant shelf-break and upper-slope failure and landsliding has apparently occurred. The shelf break in the western part of the map area is notably embayed by the heads of three large (150- to 300-m-wide) channels that have been referred to as “the Gaviota Canyons” or as “Drake Canyon,” “Sacate Canyon,” and “Alegria Canyon.” Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft, unconsolidated sediment interspersed with isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities in the nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deeper water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Gaviota map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats lie primarily within the Shelf (continental shelf) but also partly within the Flank (basin flank or continental slope) megahabitats. The fairly homogeneous seafloor of sediment and low-relief bedrock provides characteristic habitat for rockfish, groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms. Several areas of smooth sediment form nearshore terraces that have relatively steep, smooth fronts, which may be attractive to groundfish. Below the steep shelf break, soft, unconsolidated sediment is interrupted by the heads of several submarine canyons and rills, some bedrock exposures, and small carbonate mounds associated with asphalt mounds and pockmarks, also good potential habitat for rockfish. The map area includes the relatively small (5.2 km 2 ) Kashtayit State Marine Conservation Area, which largely occupies the inner part of the Gaviota sediment bar.

California↗
USGS2015

Status and trends of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2014 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2013. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). Shortnose suckers (SNS) and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2014, we captured, tagged, and released 496 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 970 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,370 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Cinder Flats and Sucker Springs. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 3,038 LRS and 267 SNS, and recaptured 762 LRS and 156 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at three different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 23,446 LRS and 6,259 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream in the first and second weeks of April when water temperatures were increasing and greater than 10 °C. In contrast, upstream passage for SNS occurred in two pulses, one in early April and one in late April to early May, when water temperatures were increasing and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 375 LRS and 884 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern part of the lake. Of these, 111 of the LRS and 390 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS captured at the staging areas that had encounter histories that were informative about their spawning location, 79 percent of the fish were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 13,200 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included more than 36,400 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) between 1999 and 2012. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the rivers in 2000, for males from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the rivers in 2006 and 2012. Between 2001 and 2013, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 55 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 42 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2013. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 19,200 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2012 were high (greater than 0.80), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, male survival was low in 2002. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial between 2001 and 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable between 2006 and 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 77 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 73 percent between 2001 and 2013. Decreases in abundance for both sexes likely are greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for shortnose suckers. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗
USGS2014

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and short nose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2012

Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during spring 2012 were used to describe the spawning migrations in that year and also were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations in 2011. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). Shortnose suckers (SNS) and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2012, we captured, tagged, and released 749 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 969 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,578 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Cinder Flats and Sucker Springs. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 3,376 LRS and 299 SNS, and recaptured 551 LRS and 125 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at four different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 19,321 LRS and 6,124 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream between late April and mid-May when water temperatures were increasing and greater than 10 °C. In contrast, most upstream passage for SNS occurred in early and mid-May when water temperatures were increasing and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 1,188 LRS and 1,665 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern part of the lake. Of these, 291 of the LRS and 653 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS captured at the staging areas that had encounter histories that were informative about their spawning location, over 90 percent of the fish were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 12,150 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included more than 29,500 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.9) between 1999 and 2010. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the rivers in 2000, for both sexes from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the rivers in 2006. Between 2001 and 2011, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by 53–65 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 36–48 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume that little or no recruitment occurred in 2006 or 2008, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2011. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 17,700 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2010 were high (greater than 0.8), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was particularly low in 2001, 2004, and 2010. In addition, male survival was somewhat low in 2002. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial between 2001 and 2005. Models indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population in 2006, 2008, and 2009. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable between 2006 and 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006, 2008, and 2009 because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 71 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 69 percent between 2001 and 2011. The worst-case scenario, which assumes no recruitment and seems more likely, suggests an 86 percent decrease for males and an 81 percent decrease for females. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the adult spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. In fact, fork length data indicate that all populations are largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is especially dire for shortnose suckers. Future investigations should explore the connections between sucker recruitment and survival and various environmental factors, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗