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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Space geodetic observation of expansion of the San Gabriel Valley, California, aquifer system, during heavy rainfall in winter 2004-2005

[1] Starting early in 2005, the positions of GPS stations in the San Gabriel valley region of southern California showed statistically significant departures from their previous behavior. Station LONG moved up by about 47 mm, and nearby stations moved away from LONG by about 10 mm. These changes began during an extremely rainy season in southern California and coincided with a 16-m increase in water level at a nearby well in Baldwin Park and a regional uplift detected by interferometric synthetic aperture radar. No equivalent signals were seen in GPS station position time series elsewhere in southern California. Our preferred explanation, supported by the timing and by a hydrologic simulation, is deformation due to recharging of aquifers after near-record rainfall in 2004–2005. We cannot rule out an aseismic slip event, but we consider such an event unlikely because it requires slip on multiple faults and predicts other signals that are not observed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Mechanical properties of sand, silt, and clay containing tetrahydrofuran hydrate

The mechanical behavior of hydrate-bearing sediments subjected to large strains has relevance for the stability of the seafloor and submarine slopes, drilling and coring operations, and the analysis of certain small-strain properties of these sediments (for example, seismic velocities). This study reports on the results of comprehensive axial compression triaxial tests conducted at up to 1 MPa confining pressure on sand, crushed silt, precipitated silt, and clay specimens with closely controlled concentrations of synthetic hydrate. The results show that the stress-strain behavior of hydrate-bearing sediments is a complex function of particle size, confining pressure, and hydrate concentration. The mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments at low hydrate concentration (probably < 40% of pore space) appear to be determined by stress-dependent soil stiffness and strength. At high hydrate concentrations (>50% of pore space), the behavior becomes more independent of stress because the hydrates control both stiffness and strength and possibly the dilative tendency of sediments by effectively increasing interparticle coordination, cementing particles together, and filling the pore space. The cementation contribution to the shear strength of hydrate-bearing sediments decreases with increasing specific surface of soil minerals. The lower the effective confining stress, the greater the impact of hydrate formation on normalized strength.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Waveform inversion of volcano-seismic signals for an extended source

[1] We propose a method to investigate the dimensions and oscillation characteristics of the source of volcano-seismic signals based on waveform inversion for an extended source. An extended source is realized by a set of point sources distributed on a grid surrounding the centroid of the source in accordance with the source geometry and orientation. The source-time functions for all point sources are estimated simultaneously by waveform inversion carried out in the frequency domain. We apply a smoothing constraint to suppress short-scale noisy fluctuations of source-time functions between adjacent sources. The strength of the smoothing constraint we select is that which minimizes the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). We perform a series of numerical tests to investigate the capability of our method to recover the dimensions of the source and reconstruct its oscillation characteristics. First, we use synthesized waveforms radiated by a kinematic source model that mimics the radiation from an oscillating crack. Our results demonstrate almost complete recovery of the input source dimensions and source-time function of each point source, but also point to a weaker resolution of the higher modes of crack oscillation. Second, we use synthetic waveforms generated by the acoustic resonance of a fluid-filled crack, and consider two sets of waveforms dominated by the modes with wavelengths 2 L /3 and 2 W /3, or L and 2 L /5, where W and L are the crack width and length, respectively. Results from these tests indicate that the oscillating signature of the 2 L /3 and 2 W /3 modes are successfully reconstructed. The oscillating signature of the L mode is also well recovered, in contrast to results obtained for a point source for which the moment tensor description is inadequate. However, the oscillating signature of the 2 L /5 mode is poorly recovered owing to weaker resolution of short-scale crack wall motions. The triggering excitations of the oscillating cracks are successfully reconstructed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Postseismic relaxation and aftershocks

[1] Perfettini et al. (2005) suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u ( t ) measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to N ( t ), the cumulative number of aftershocks, by the equation u ( t ) = a + bt + cN ( t ) + d (1 − e − αt ), where a , b , c , d , and α are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time. N ( t ) appears in the expression for u ( t ) because both the aftershocks and a portion of u ( t ) are thought to be driven by the same source, postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We show that this equation with the actually observed N ( t ) fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes: 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine (southern California), 2002 M7.9 Denali (central Alaska), 2003 M6.5 San Simeon (central California), and 2004 M6.0 Parkfield (central California) earthquakes. Although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u ( t ), the large number of adjustable constants ( a , b , c , d , and α ) involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit. Because the observed N ( t ) is well fit by the modified Omori's law, fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence. That dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep. Montesi (2004) demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Structure of the California Coast Ranges and San Andreas Fault at SAFOD from seismic waveform inversion and reflection imaging

[1] A seismic reflection and refraction survey across the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near Parkfield provides a detailed characterization of crustal structure across the location of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). Steep-dip prestack migration and frequency domain acoustic waveform tomography were applied to obtain highly resolved images of the upper 5 km of the crust for 15 km on either side of the SAF. The resulting velocity model constrains the top of the Salinian granite with great detail. Steep-dip reflection seismic images show several strong-amplitude vertical reflectors in the uppermost crust near SAFOD that define an ∼2-km-wide zone comprising the main SAF and two or more local faults. Another prominent subvertical reflector at 2–4 km depth ∼9 km to the northeast of the SAF marks the boundary between the Franciscan terrane and the Great Valley Sequence. A deep seismic section of low resolution shows several reflectors in the Salinian crust west of the SAF. Two horizontal reflectors around 10 km depth correlate with strains of seismicity observed along-strike of the SAF. They represent midcrustal shear zones partially decoupling the ductile lower crust from the brittle upper crust. The deepest reflections from ∼25 km depth are interpreted as crust-mantle boundary.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

California↗

Three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the San Francisco Bay region, California

[1] A new three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the greater San Francisco Bay region has been derived using the double-difference seismic tomography method, using data from about 5,500 chemical explosions or air gun blasts and approximately 6,000 earthquakes. The model region covers 140 km NE-SW by 240 km NW-SE, extending from 20 km south of Monterey to Santa Rosa and reaching from the Pacific coast to the edge of the Great Valley. Our model provides the first regional view of a number of basement highs that are imaged in the uppermost few kilometers of the model, and images a number of velocity anomaly lows associated with known Mesozoic and Cenozoic basins in the study area. High velocity ( V p > 6.5 km/s) features at ∼15-km depth beneath part of the edge of the Great Valley and along the San Francisco peninsula are interpreted as ophiolite bodies. The relocated earthquakes provide a clear picture of the geometry of the major faults in the region, illuminating fault dips that are generally consistent with previous studies. Ninety-five percent of the earthquakes have depths between 2.3 and 15.2 km, and the corresponding seismic velocities at the hypocenters range from 4.8 km/s (presumably corresponding to Franciscan basement or Mesozoic sedimentary rocks of the Great Valley Sequence) to 6.8 km/s. The top of the seismogenic zone is thus largely controlled by basement depth, but the base of the seismogenic zone is not restricted to seismic velocities of ≤6.3 km/s in this region, as had been previously proposed.

California↗

Postseismic relaxation associated with transient creep rheology

[1] Perfettini and Avouac (2004) postulated that both the aftershock rate (assumed proportional to the local stressing rate) and the postseismic relaxation are driven by the loading imposed by postseismic slip on the brittle creep fault zone (BCFZ), the downdip extension of the fault zone below the coseismic rupture. I explore the consequences of that hypothesis for a long, strike-slip fault in the case where the BCFZ rheology is compatible with ordinary transient creep (creep strain proportional to log e (1 + t / τ 2 )). Because the important relaxation occurs near the bottom of the coseismic rupture, I calculate the postearthquake response with a model in which the BCFZ is represented by a viscoelastic half-space below the coseismic rupture. I find that both the predicted postseismic relaxation and the cumulative number of aftershocks can be approximated by the same temporal dependence N MO ( t ) = a MO (1−(1 + t / τ ) 1− p )/( p − 1), where t is the time after the earthquake and a MO , τ , and p are the constants chosen to fit either data set. Notice that d N MO ( t )/d t = ( a MO / τ )/(1 + t / τ ) p is the modified Omori law used to describe the rate of aftershock occurrence. Thus, the modified Omori law can be understood as a consequence of the Perfettini–Avouac hypothesis (aftershocks driven by slip on the BCFZ) and a BCFZ rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep. Moreover, the temporal dependence N MO ( t ) has been shown to fit postseismic surface deformation following at least 9 earthquakes. I also show that the conventional, one-dimensional, spring-block model of a BFCZ with a rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep leads to the same temporal dependence ( N MO ( t )).

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Hydrothermal fluid flow and deformation in large calderas: Inferences from numerical simulations

[1] Inflation and deflation of large calderas is traditionally interpreted as being induced by volume change of a discrete source embedded in an elastic or viscoelastic half-space, though it has also been suggested that hydrothermal fluids may play a role. To test the latter hypothesis, we carry out numerical simulations of hydrothermal fluid flow and poroelastic deformation in calderas by coupling two numerical codes: (1) TOUGH2 [Pruess et al., 1999], which simulates flow in porous or fractured media, and (2) BIOT2 [Hsieh, 1996], which simulates fluid flow and deformation in a linearly elastic porous medium. In the simulations, high-temperature water (350°C) is injected at variable rates into a cylinder (radius 50 km, height 3–5 km). A sensitivity analysis indicates that small differences in the values of permeability and its anisotropy, the depth and rate of hydrothermal injection, and the values of the shear modulus may lead to significant variations in the magnitude, rate, and geometry of ground surface displacement, or uplift. Some of the simulated uplift rates are similar to observed uplift rates in large calderas, suggesting that the injection of aqueous fluids into the shallow crust may explain some of the deformation observed in calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

[1] We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

A global search inversion for earthquake kinematic rupture history: Application to the 2000 western Tottori, Japan earthquake

[1] We present a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an earthquake on a finite fault. To account for the actual rupture complexity, the fault parameters are spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip direction, rupture time and risetime. The unknown parameters are given at the nodes of the subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault are allowed to vary through a bilinear interpolation of the nodal values. The forward modeling is performed with a discrete wave number technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically varying Earth structure. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the model ensemble and computes a weighted mean model and its standard deviation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. We present some synthetic tests to show the effectiveness of the method and its robustness to uncertainty of the adopted crustal model. Finally, we apply this inverse technique to the well recorded 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake ( Mw 6.6); we confirm that the rupture process is characterized by large slip (3-4 m) at very shallow depths but, differently from previous studies, we imaged a new slip patch (2-2.5 m) located deeper, between 14 and 18 km depth.

Tottori↗

Bed forms created by simulated waves and currents in a large flume

The morphology and evolution of bed forms created by combinations of waves and currents were investigated using an oscillating plate in a 4-m-wide flume. Current speed ranged from 0 to 30 cm/s, maximum oscillatory velocity ranged from 20 to 48 cm/s, oscillation period was 8 s (except for one run with 12 s period), and the median grain size was 0.27 mm. The angle between oscillations and current was 90°, 60°, or 45°. At the end of each run the sand bed was photographed and ripple dimensions were measured. Ripple wavelength was also determined from sonar images collected throughout the runs. Increasing the ratio of current to wave (i.e., oscillatory) velocity decreased ripple height and wavelength, in part because of the increased fluid excursion during the wave period. Increasing the ratio of current to waves, or decreasing the angle between current and waves, increased the three-dimensionality of bed forms. During the runs, ripple wavelength increased by a factor of about 2. The average number of wave periods for evolution of ripple wavelength to 90% of its final value was 184 for two-dimensional ripples starting from a flat bed. Bed form orientations at the end of each run were compared to four potential controlling factors: the directions of waves, current, maximum instantaneous bed shear stress, and maximum gross bed form normal transport (MGBNT). The directions of waves and of MGBNT were equally good predictors of bed form orientations, and were significantly better than the other two factors.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Airborne dust transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean off southern California: Evidence from San Clemente Island

Islands are natural dust traps, and San Clemente Island, California, is a good example. Soils on marine terraces cut into Miocene andesite on this island are clay-rich Vertisols or Alfisols with vertic properties. These soils are overlain by silt-rich mantles, 5-20 cm thick, that contrast sharply with the underlying clay-rich subsoils. The silt mantles have a mineralogy that is distinct from the island bedrock. Silt mantles are rich in quartz, which is rare in the island andesite. The clay fraction of the silt mantles is dominated by mica, also absent from local andesite, and contrasts with the subsoils, dominated by smectite. Ternary plots of immobile trace elements (Sc-Th-La and Ta-Nd-Cr) show that the island andesite has a composition intermediate between average upper continental crust and average oceanic crust. In contrast, the silt and, to a lesser extent, clay fractions of the silt mantles have compositions closer to average upper continental crust. The silt mantles have particle size distributions similar to loess and Mojave Desert dust, but are coarser than long-range-transported Asian dust. We infer from these observations that the silt mantles are derived from airborne dust from the North American mainland, probably river valleys in the coastal mountains of southern California and/or the Mojave Desert. Although average winds are from the northwest in coastal California, easterly winds occur numerous times of the year when "Santa Ana" conditions prevail, caused by a high-pressure cell centered over the Great Basin. Examination of satellite imagery shows that easterly Santa Ana winds carry abundant dust to the eastern Pacific Ocean and the California Channel Islands. Airborne dust from mainland North America may be an important component of the offshore sediment budget in the easternmost Pacific Ocean, a finding of potential biogeochemical and climatic significance.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States

Over the past 350 years, the eastern half of the United States experienced extensive land cover changes. These began with land clearing in the 1600s, continued with widespread deforestation, wetland drainage, and intensive land use by 1920, and then evolved to the present-day landscape of forest regrowth, intensive agriculture, urban expansion, and landscape fragmentation. Such changes alter biophysical properties that are key determinants of land-atmosphere interactions (water, energy, and carbon exchanges). To understand the potential implications of these land use transformations, we developed and analyzed 20-km land cover and biophysical parameter data sets for the eastern United States at 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 time slices. Our approach combined potential vegetation, county-level census data, soils data, resource statistics, a Landsat-derived land cover classification, and published historical information on land cover and land use. We reconstructed land use intensity maps for each time slice and characterized the land cover condition. We combined these land use data with a mutually consistent set of biophysical parameter classes, to characterize the historical diversity and distribution of land surface properties. Time series maps of land surface albedo, leaf area index, a deciduousness index, canopy height, surface roughness, and potential saturated soils in 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 illustrate the profound effects of land use change on biophysical properties of the land surface. Although much of the eastern forest has returned, the average biophysical parameters for recent landscapes remain markedly different from those of earlier periods. Understanding the consequences of these historical changes will require land-atmosphere interactions modeling experiments.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Nature and origin of the hematite-bearing plains of Terra Meridiani based on analyses of orbital and Mars Exploration rover data sets

The ∼5 km of traverses and observations completed by the Opportunity rover from Endurance crater to the Fruitbasket outcrop show that the Meridiani plains consist of sulfate‐rich sedimentary rocks that are largely covered by poorly‐sorted basaltic aeolian sands and a lag of granule‐sized hematitic concretions. Orbital reflectance spectra obtained by Mars Express OMEGA over this region are dominated by pyroxene, plagioclase feldspar, crystalline hematite (i.e., concretions), and nano‐phase iron oxide dust signatures, consistent with Pancam and Mini‐TES observations. Mössbauer Spectrometer observations indicate more olivine than observed with the other instruments, consistent with preferential optical obscuration of olivine features in mixtures with pyroxene and dust. Orbital data covering bright plains located several kilometers to the south of the landing site expose a smaller areal abundance of hematite, more dust, and a larger areal extent of outcrop compared to plains proximal to the landing site. Low‐albedo, low‐thermal‐inertia, windswept plains located several hundred kilometers to the south of the landing site are predicted from OMEGA data to have more hematite and fine‐grained olivine grains exposed as compared to the landing site. Low calcium pyroxene dominates spectral signatures from the cratered highlands to the south of Opportunity. A regional‐scale model is presented for the formation of the plains explored by Opportunity, based on a rising ground water table late in the Noachian Era that trapped and altered local materials and aeolian basaltic sands. Cessation of this aqueous process led to dominance of aeolian processes and formation of the current configuration of the plains.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Evidence for montmorillonite or its compositional equivalent in Columbia Hills, Mars

During its exploration of the Columbia Hills, the Mars Exploration Rover "Spirit" encountered several similar samples that are distinctly different from Martian meteorites and known Gusev crater soils, rocks, and sediments. Occurring in a variety of contexts and locations, these "Independence class" samples are rough-textured, iron-poor (equivalent FeO ??? 4 wt%), have high Al/Si ratios, and often contain unexpectedly high concentrations of one or more minor or trace elements (including Cr, Ni, Cu, Sr, and Y). Apart from accessory minerals, the major component common to these samples has a compositional profile of major and minor elements which is similar to the smectite montmorillonite, implicating this mineral, or its compositional equivalent. Infrared thermal emission spectra do not indicate the presence of crystalline smectite. One of these samples was found spatially associated with a ferric sulfate-enriched soil horizon, possibly indicating a genetic relationship between these disparate types of materials. Compared to the nearby Wishstone and Watchtower class rocks, major aqueous alteration involving mineral dissolution and mobilization with consequent depletions of certain elements is implied for this setting and may be undetectable by remote sensing from orbit because of the small scale of the occurrences and obscuration by mantling with soil and dust.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Spectrophotometric properties of materials observed by Pancam on the Mars Exploration Rovers: 2. Opportunity

The Panoramic Camera (Pancam) on the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity acquired visible/near‐infrared multispectral observations of soils and rocks under varying viewing and illumination geometries that were modeled using radiative transfer theory to improve interpretations of the microphysical and surface scattering nature of materials in Meridiani Planum. Nearly 25,000 individual measurements were collected of rock and soil units identified by their color and morphologic properties over a wide range of phase angles (0–150°) at Eagle crater, in the surrounding plains, in Endurance crater, and in the plains between Endurance and Erebus craters through Sol 492. Corrections for diffuse skylight incorporated sky models based on observations of atmospheric opacity throughout the mission. Disparity maps created from Pancam stereo images allowed inclusion of local facet orientation estimates. Outcrop rocks overall exhibited the highest single scattering albedos (≤0.9 at 753 nm), and most spherule‐rich soils exhibited the lowest (≤0.6 at 753 nm). Macroscopic roughness among outcrop rocks varied but was typically larger than spherule‐rich soils. Data sets with sufficient phase angle coverage (resulting in well‐constrained Hapke parameters) suggested that models using single‐term and two‐term Henyey‐Greenstein phase functions exhibit a dominantly broad backscattering trend for most undisturbed spherule‐rich soils. Rover tracks and other compressed soils exhibited forward scattering, while outcrop rocks were intermediate in their scattering behaviors. Some phase functions exhibited wavelength‐dependent trends that may result from variations in thin deposits of airfall dust that occurred during the mission.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗