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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

USGS2006

Measuring permanence of CO 2 storage in saline formations: The Frio experiment

If CO 2 released from fossil fuel during energy production is returned to the subsurface, will it be retained for periods of time significant enough to benefit the atmosphere? Can trapping be assured in saline formations where there is no history of hydrocarbon accumulation? The Frio experiment in Texas was undertaken to provide answers to these questions. One thousand six hundred metric tons of CO 2 were injected into the Frio Formation, which underlies large areas of the United States Gulf Coast. Reservoir characterization and numerical modeling were used to design the experiment, as well as to interpret the results through history matching. Closely spaced measurements in space and time were collected to observe the evolution of immiscible and dissolved CO 2 during and after injection. The high-permeability, steeply dipping sandstone allowed updip flow of supercritical CO 2 as a result of the density contrast with formation brine and absence of a local structural trap. The front of the CO 2 plume moved more quickly than had been modeled. By the end of the 10-day injection, however, the plume geometry in the plane of the observation and injection wells had thickened to a distribution similar to the modeled distribution. As expected, CO 2 dissolved rapidly into brine, causing pH to fall and calcite and metals to be dissolved. Postinjection measurements, including time-lapse vertical seismic profiling transects along selected azimuths, cross-well seismic topography, and saturation logs, show that CO 2 migration under gravity slowed greatly 2 months after injection, matching model predictions that significant CO 2 is trapped as relative permeability decreases.

Environmental Geosciences↗

USGS2017

Natural thorium resources and recovery: Options and impacts

This paper reviews the front end of the thorium fuel cycle, including the extent and variety of thorium deposits, the potential sources of thorium production, and the physical and chemical technologies required to isolate and purify thorium. Thorium is frequently found within rare earth element–bearing minerals that exist in diverse types of mineral deposits, often in conjunction with other minerals mined for their commercial value. It may be possible to recover substantial quantities of thorium as a by-product from active titanium, uranium, tin, iron, and rare earth mines. Incremental physical and chemical processing is required to obtain a purified thorium product from thorium minerals, but documented experience with these processes is extensive, and incorporating thorium recovery should not be overly challenging. The anticipated environmental impacts of by-product thorium recovery are small relative to those of uranium recovery since existing mining infrastructure utilization avoids the opening and operation of new mines and thorium recovery removes radionuclides from the mining tailings.

Nuclear Technology↗

USGS2024

Quantifying and evaluating strategies to decrease carbon dioxide emissions generated from tourism to Yellowstone National Park

The tourism industry needs strategies to reduce emissions and hasten the achievement of global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission reduction targets. Using a case study approach, we estimated CO 2 emissions related to park tourism in Yellowstone National Park (USA) generated from transit to and from the park, transit within the park, accommodations, and park operations. Results indicate tourism to Yellowstone National Park produces an estimated 1.03 megaton (1.03 billion kg) of CO 2 -equivalent emissions annually, with an average of 479 kg CO 2 per visitor. Almost 90% of these emissions were attributable to transit to and from the destination, while 5% were from transit within the park, 4% from overnight accommodations, and about 1% from other park operations (e.g., visitor centers, museums, shops, restaurants, etc.). Visitors who fly only made up about 35% of all visitors, but produced 72% of the emissions related to transit to and from the park. Future scenarios that alter transit to and from the park can reduce emissions the most; this includes a greater proportion of local or regional visitors, fewer visitors flying, and increased fuel efficiency of vehicles. The method developed in this work, and applied specifically to Yellowstone National Park, can be adopted elsewhere and used to help decision makers evaluate the effectiveness of potential emission reduction strategies.

Wyoming↗

USGS2013

Conservation of avian diversity in the Sierra Nevada: moving beyond a single-species management focus

Background: As a result of past practices, many of the dry coniferous forests of the western United States contain dense, even-aged stands with uncharacteristically high levels of litter and downed woody debris. These changes to the forest have received considerable attention as they elevate concerns regarding the outcome of wildland fire. However, attempts to reduce biomass through fuel reduction (i.e., thinning of trees) are often opposed by public interest groups whose objectives include maintaining habitat for species of concern such as the spotted owl, Strix occidentalis, the northern goshawk, Accipiter gentilis, and the Pacific fisher, Martes pennanti. Whether protection of these upper-trophic level species confers adequate conservation of avian forest diversity is unknown. Methodology and Principal Findings: We use a multi-species occurrence model to estimate the habitat associations of 47 avian species detected at 742 sampling locations within an 880-km 2 area in the Sierra Nevada. Our approach, which accounts for variations in detectability of species, estimates occurrence probabilities of all species in a community by linking species occurrence models into one hierarchical community model, thus improving inferences on all species, especially those that are rare or observed infrequently. We address how the avian community is influenced by covariates related to canopy cover, tree size and shrub cover while accounting for the impacts of abiotic variables known to affect species distributions. Conclusions and Significance: Environmental parameters estimated through our approach emphasize the importance of within and between stand-level heterogeneity in meeting biodiversity objectives and suggests that many avian species would increase under more open canopy habitat conditions than those favored by umbrella species of high conservation concern. Our results suggest that a more integrated approach that emphasizes maintaining a diversity of habitats across environmental gradients and minimizing urbanization may have a greater benefit to ecosystem functioning then a single-species management focus.

California;Nevada↗

USGS2013

Fatty acid composition at the base of aquatic food webs is influenced by habitat type and watershed land use

Spatial variation in food resources strongly influences many aspects of aquatic consumer ecology. Although large-scale controls over spatial variation in many aspects of food resources are well known, others have received little study. Here we investigated variation in the fatty acid (FA) composition of seston and primary consumers within (i.e., among habitats) and among tributary systems of Lake Michigan, USA. FA composition of food is important because all metazoans require certain FAs for proper growth and development that cannot be produced de novo, including many polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Here we sampled three habitat types (river, rivermouth and nearshore zone) in 11 tributaries of Lake Michigan to assess the amount of FA in seston and primary consumers of seston. We hypothesize that among-system and among-habitat variation in FAs at the base of food webs would be related to algal production, which in turn is influenced by three land cover characteristics: 1) combined agriculture and urban lands (an indication of anthropogenic nutrient inputs that fuel algal production), 2) the proportion of surface waters (an indication of water residence times that allow algal producers to accumulate) and 3) the extent of riparian forested buffers (an indication of stream shading that reduces algal production). Of these three land cover characteristics, only intense land use appeared to strongly related to seston and consumer FA and this effect was only strong in rivermouth and nearshore lake sites. River seston and consumer FA composition was highly variable, but that variation does not appear to be driven by the watershed land cover characteristics investigated here. Whether the spatial variation in FA content at the base of these food webs significantly influences the production of economically important species higher in the food web should be a focus of future research.

Michigan;Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2017

Evidence of compounded disturbance effects on vegetation recovery following high-severity wildfire and spruce beetle outbreak

Spruce beetle ( Dendroctonus rufipennis ) outbreaks are rapidly spreading throughout subalpine forests of the Rocky Mountains, raising concerns that altered fuel structures may increase the ecological severity of wildfires. Although many recent studies have found no conclusive link between beetle outbreaks and increased fire size or canopy mortality, few studies have addressed whether these combined disturbances produce compounded effects on short-term vegetation recovery. We tested for an effect of spruce beetle outbreak severity on vegetation recovery in the West Fork Complex fire in southwestern Colorado, USA, where much of the burn area had been affected by severe spruce beetle outbreaks in the decade prior to the fire. Vegetation recovery was assessed using the Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) two years after the fire, which occurred in 2013. Beetle outbreak severity, defined as the basal area of beetle-killed trees within Landsat pixels, was estimated using vegetation index differences (dVIs) derived from pre-outbreak and post-outbreak Landsat images. Of the seven dVIs tested, the change in Normalized Difference Moisture Index (dNDMI) was most strongly correlated with field measurements of beetle-killed basal area (R 2 = 0.66). dNDMI was included as an explanatory variable in sequential autoregressive (SAR) models of NDVI 2015 . Models also included pre-disturbance NDVI, topography, and weather conditions at the time of burning as covariates. SAR results showed a significant correlation between NDVI 2015 and dNDMI, with more severe spruce beetle outbreaks corresponding to reduced post-fire vegetation cover. The correlation was stronger for models which were limited to locations in the red stage of outbreak (outbreak ≤ 5 years old at the time of fire) than for models of gray-stage locations (outbreak > 5 years old at the time of fire). These results indicate that vegetation recovery processes may be negatively impacted by severe spruce beetle outbreaks occurring within a decade of stand-replacing wildfire.

Colorado↗

USGS1998

Transport of 137Cs and 239,240Pu with ice-rafted debris in the Arctic Ocean

Ice rafting is the dominant mechanism responsible for the transport of fine-grained sediments from coastal zones to the deep Arctic Basin. Therefore, the drift of ice-rafted debris (IRD) could be a significant transport mechanism from the shelf to the deep basin for radionuclides originating from nuclear fuel cycle activities and released to coastal Arctic regions of the former Soviet Union. In this study, 28 samples of IRD collected from the Arctic ice pack during expeditions in 1989-95 were analyzed for 137Cs by gamma spectrometry and for 239Pu and 240Pu by thermal ionization mass spectrometry. 137Cs concentrations in the IRD ranged from less than 0.2 to 78 Bq/kg (dry weight basis). The two samples with the highest 137Cs concentrations were collected in the vicinity of Franz Josef Land, and their backward trajectories suggest origins in the Kara Sea. Among the lowest 137Cs values are seven measured on sediments entrained on the North American shelf in 1989 and 1995, and sampled on the shelf less than six months later. Concentrations of 239Pu + 240Pu ranged from about 0.02 to 1.8 Bq/kg. The two highest values came from samples collected in the central Canada Basin and near Spitsbergen; calculated backward trajectories suggest at least 14 years of circulation in the Canada Basin in the former case, and an origin near Severnaya Zemlya (at the Kara Sea/Laptev Sea boundary) in the latter case. While most of the IRD samples showed 240Pu/239Pu ratios near the mean global fallout value of 0.185, five of the samples had lower ratios, in the 0.119 to 0.166 range, indicative of mixtures of Pu from fallout and from the reprocessing of weapons-grade Pu. The backward trajectories of these five samples suggest origins in the Kara Sea or near Severnaya Zemlya.

Arctic↗

USGS2017

Short-term vegetation response following mechanical control of saltcedar ( Tamarix spp.) on the Virgin River, Nevada, USA

Tamarisk (a.k.a. saltcedar, Tamarix spp.) is an invasive plant species that occurs throughout western riparian and wetland ecosystems. It is implicated in alterations of ecosystem structure and function and is the subject of many local control projects, including removal using heavy equipment. We evaluated short-term vegetation responses to mechanical Tamarix spp. removal at sites ranging from 2 to 5 yr post-treatment along the Virgin River in Nevada, USA. Treatments resulted in lower density and cover (but not eradication) of Tamarix spp., increased cover of the native shrub Pluchea sericia (arrow weed), decreased density and cover of all woody species combined, increased density of both native annual forbs and the nonnative annual Salsola tragus (prickly Russian-thistle), and lower density of nonnative annual grasses. The treated plots had lower mean woody species richness, but greater herbaceous species richness and diversity. Among herbaceous species, native taxa increased in richness whereas nonnative species increased in both species richness and diversity. Thus, efforts to remove Tamarix,/i> spp. at the Virgin River reduced vegetative cover contributing to fuel loads and probability of fire, and resulted in positive effects for native plant diversity, with mixed effects on other nonnative species. However, absolute abundances of native species and species diversity were very low, suggesting that targets of restoring vegetation to pre-invasion conditions were not met. Longer evaluation periods are needed to adequately evaluate how short-term post-treatment patterns translate to long-term patterns of plant community dynamics.

Nevada↗

USGS2005

Tamarisk tensions

In the August 2005 feature article, “Tiff over Tamarisk: Can a Nuisance Be Nice, Too?” the author raises several issues about which there is currently scientific debate, and presents some of the differing perspectives. A phenomenon surrounding discussions of tamarisk in the West is revealed and reinforced in the article—the polarized nature of the debate. Over the years, this polarization has fueled acrimonious exchanges between scientists and led to confusion regarding the effects of tamarisk, thus hindering the ability of resource managers to formulate clear policies for managing this species. Unfortunately, the author has perpetuated the polarized nature of the tamarisk debate by labeling two camps—“revisionists” and “traditionalists.”

BioScience↗

USGS2016

Avian response to fire in pine–oak forests of Great Smoky Mountains National Park following decades of fire suppression

Fire suppression in southern Appalachian pine–oak forests during the past century dramatically altered the bird community. Fire return intervals decreased, resulting in local extirpation or population declines of many bird species adapted to post-fire plant communities. Within Great Smoky Mountains National Park, declines have been strongest for birds inhabiting xeric pine–oak forests that depend on frequent fire. The buildup of fuels after decades of fire suppression led to changes in the 1996 Great Smoky Mountains Fire Management Plan. Although fire return intervals remain well below historic levels, management changes have helped increase the amount of fire within the park over the past 20 years, providing an opportunity to study patterns of fire severity, time since burn, and bird occurrence. We combined avian point counts in burned and unburned areas with remote sensing indices of fire severity to infer temporal changes in bird occurrence for up to 28 years following fire. Using hierarchical linear models that account for the possibility of a species presence at a site when no individuals are detected, we developed occurrence models for 24 species: 13 occurred more frequently in burned areas, 2 occurred less frequently, and 9 showed no significant difference between burned and unburned areas. Within burned areas, the top models for each species included fire severity, time since burn, or both, suggesting that fire influenced patterns of species occurrence for all 24 species. Our findings suggest that no single fire management strategy will suit all species. To capture peak occupancy for the entire bird community within xeric pine–oak forests, at least 3 fire regimes may be necessary; one applying frequent low severity fire, another using infrequent low severity fire, and a third using infrequently applied high severity fire.

The Condor↗

USGS2010

Temporal and spatial shifts in habitat use by Black Brant immediately following flightless molt

Each year thousands of Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) undergo flightless wing molt in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (TLSA), Alaska, in two distinct habitats: inland, freshwater lakes and coastal, brackish wetlands. Brant lose body mass during wing molt and likely must add reserves upon regaining flight to help fuel their 2,500 km migration to autumn staging areas. We characterized movements and habitat use by Brant during post-molt (the period immediately following the recovery of flight) by (1) marking individual Brant with GPS (global positioning system) transmitters, and (2) conducting a series of replicate aerial surveys. Individuals molting in inland habitats promptly abandoned their molt wetland during the post-molt and moved into coastal habitats. Consequently, inland habitats were nearly deserted by early August when Brant had regained flight, a decrease of >5,000 individuals from the flightless period of early July. Conversely, coastal molting Brant largely remained in coastal habitats during the post-molt and many coastal wetlands were occupied by large flocks (>1,000 birds). Our results indicate that inland, freshwater wetlands were less suitable post-molt habitats for Brant, while coastal wetlands were preferred as they transitioned from flightless molt. The immediacy with which Brant vacated inland habitats upon regaining flight suggests that food may be limiting during molt and they are not selecting inland molt sites strictly for food resources, but rather a balance of factors including predator avoidance and acquisition of protein for feather growth. Our data clearly demonstrate that patterns of habitat use by Brant in the TLSA change over the course of the molt season, an important consideration for management of future resource development activities in this area.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

Human Organization↗

USGS2016

Potentially induced earthquakes during the early twentieth century in the Los Angeles Basin

Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater ( Hough and Page, 2015 ; Frohlich et al. , 2016 ). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded that there is no evidence for significant induced activity in the greater Los Angeles region between 1935 and the present. To explore a possible association between earthquakes prior to 1935 and oil and gas production, we first revisit the historical catalog and then review contemporary oil industry activities. Although early industry activities did not induce large numbers of earthquakes, we present evidence for an association between the initial oil boom in the greater Los Angeles area and earthquakes between 1915 and 1932, including the damaging 22 June 1920 Inglewood and 8 July 1929 Whittier earthquakes. We further consider whether the 1933 M w 6.4 Long Beach earthquake might have been induced, and show some evidence that points to a causative relationship between the earthquake and activities in the Huntington Beach oil field. The hypothesis that the Long Beach earthquake was either induced or triggered by an foreshock cannot be ruled out. Our results suggest that significant earthquakes in southern California during the early twentieth century might have been associated with industry practices that are no longer employed (i.e., production without water reinjection), and do not necessarily imply a high likelihood of induced earthquakes at the present time.

California↗

USGS2018

Will increased storm surge frequency impact food availability for Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) at the beginning of fall migration?

Hatch-year Semipalmated Sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ) use river deltas along the Beaufort Sea as their first stops during fall migration. However, these sites are subject to extreme changes in water levels that affect available foraging habitat. We examined relationships between timing of fall migration and storm surges, with respect to forage availability, using different water level scenarios to predict impacts on food availability for fueling migration at three river deltas. We compared available calories at observed water levels to modeled values derived from changes due to lunar tides (35% decline) and storm surges (58% decline). Peak use by shorebirds varied temporally among sites, while the peak in forage availability occurred late in the season, mismatched with the largest peak in migration at the most used river delta. Shifts in breeding phenology due to climate warming may allow shorebirds to migrate earlier and miss some storm surges, but this may create a mismatch between peak migration and greater food availability. Additionally, changes in climate will likely increase frequency and severity of storm surges that negatively impact availability of foraging habitat for migrant shorebirds.

Wader Study↗

USGS2004

Effects of an introduced pathogen and fire exclusion on the demography of sugar pine

An introduced pathogen, white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ), has caused declines in five-needled pines throughout North America. Simultaneously, fire exclusion has resulted in dense stands in many forest types, which may create additional stress for these generally shade-intolerant pines. Fire exclusion also allows fuels to accumulate, and it is unclear how affected populations will respond to the reintroduction of fire. Although white pine blister rust and fire exclusion are widely recognized threats, long-term demographic data that document the effects of these stressors are rare. We present population trends from 2168 individuals over 5–15 years for an affected species, sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana ), at several burned and unburned sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Size-based matrix models indicate that most unburned populations have negative growth rates (λ range: 0.82–1.04). The growth rate of most populations was, however, indistinguishable from replacement levels (λ = 1.0), implying that, if populations are indeed declining, the progression of any such decline is slow, and longer observations are needed to clearly determine population trends. We found significant differences among population growth rates, primarily due to variation in recruitment rates. Deaths associated with blister rust and stress (i.e., resource competition) were common, suggesting significant roles for both blister rust and fire exclusion in determining population trajectories. Data from 15 prescribed fires showed that the immediate effect of burning was the death of many small trees, with the frequency of mortality returning to pre-fire levels within five years. In spite of a poor prognosis for sugar pine, our results suggest that we have time to apply and refine management strategies to protect this species.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2005

Determinants of postfire recovery and succession in mediterranean-climate shrublands of California

Evergreen chaparral and semideciduous sage scrub shrublands were studied for five years after fires in order to evaluate hypothesized determinants of postfire recovery and succession. Residual species present in the immediate postfire environment dominated early succession. By the fifth year postfire, roughly half of the species were colonizers not present in the first year, but they comprised only 7–14% cover. Successional changes were evaluated in the context of four hypotheses: (1) event-dependent, (2) fire interval, (3) self-regulatory, and (4) environmental filter hypotheses. Characteristics specific to the fire event, for example, fire severity and annual fluctuations in precipitation, were important determinants of patterns of change in cover and density, supporting the “event-dependent” hypothesis. The “fire interval” hypothesis is also supported, primarily through the impact of short intervals on reproductive failure in obligate seeding shrubs and the impact of long intervals on fuel accumulation and resultant fire severity. Successional changes in woody cover were correlated with decreases in herb cover, indicating support for “self-regulatory” effects. Across this landscape there were strong “environmental filter” effects that resulted in complex patterns of postfire recovery and succession between coastal and interior associations of both vegetation types. Of relevance to fire managers is the finding that postfire recovery patterns are substantially slower in the interior sage scrub formations, and thus require different management strategies than coastal formations. Also, in sage scrub (but not chaparral), prefire stand age is positively correlated with fire severity, and negatively correlated with postfire cover. Differential responses to fire severity suggest that landscapes with combinations of high and low severity may lead to enhanced biodiversity. Predicting postfire management needs is complicated by the fact that vegetation recovery is significantly controlled by patterns of precipitation.

California↗

USGS2007

Human influence on California fire regimes

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗