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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Modeling of fire spread in sagebrush steppe using FARSITE: An approach to improving input data and simulation accuracy

Background: Model simulations of wildfire spread and assessments of their accuracy are needed for understanding and managing altered fire regimes in semiarid regions. The accuracy of wildfire spread simulations can be evaluated from post hoc comparisons of simulated and actual wildfire perimeters, but this requires information on pre-fire vegetation fuels that is typically not available. We assessed the accuracy of the Fire-Area Simulator (FARSITE) model parameterized with maps of fire behavior fuel models (FBFMs) obtained from the widely used LANDFIRE, as well as alternative means which utilized the classification of Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) satellite-derived vegetation cover maps to create FBFM maps. We focused on the 2015 Soda wildfire, which burned 113,000 ha of sagebrush steppe in the western USA, and then assessed the transferability of our RAP-to-FBFM selection process, which produced the most accurate reconstruction of the Soda wildfire, on the nearby 2016 Cherry Road wildfire. Results: Parameterizing FARSITE with maps of FBFMs from LANDFIRE resulted in low levels of agreement between simulated and observed area burned, with maximum Sorensen’s coefficient (SC) and Cohen’s kappa ( K ) values of 0.38 and 0.36, respectively. In contrast, maps of FBFMs derived from unsupervised classification of RAP vegetation cover maps led to much greater simulated-to-observed burned area agreement (SC = 0.70, K = 0.68). The FBFM map that generated the greatest simulated-to-observed burned area agreement for the Soda wildfire was then used to crosswalk FBFMs to another nearby wildfire (2016 Cherry Road), and this FBFM selection led to high FARSITE simulated-to-observed burned area agreement (SC = 0.80, K = 0.79). Conclusions: Using RAP to inform pre-fire FBFM selection increased the accuracy of FARSITE simulations compared to parameterization with the standard LANDFIRE FBFM maps, in sagebrush steppe. Additionally, the crosswalk method appeared to have regional generalizability. Flanking and backfires were the primary source of disagreements between simulated and observed fire spread in FARSITE, which are sources of error that may require modeling of lateral heterogeneity in fuels and fire processes at finer scales than used here.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2016

Stakeholder-led science: engaging resource managers to identify science needs for long-term management of floodplain conservation lands

Floodplains pose challenges to managers of conservation lands because of constantly changing interactions with their rivers. Although scientific knowledge and understanding of the dynamics and drivers of river-floodplain systems can provide guidance to floodplain managers, the scientific process often occurs in isolation from management. Further, communication barriers between scientists and managers can be obstacles to appropriate application of scientific knowledge. With the coproduction of science in mind, our objectives were the following: (1) to document management priorities of floodplain conservation lands, and (2) identify science needs required to better manage the identified management priorities under nonstationary conditions, i.e., climate change, through stakeholder queries and interactions. We conducted an online survey with 80 resource managers of floodplain conservation lands along the Upper and Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, USA, to evaluate management priority, management intensity, and available scientific information for management objectives and conservation targets. Management objectives with the least information available relative to priority included controlling invasive species, maintaining respectful relationships with neighbors, and managing native, nongame species. Conservation targets with the least information available to manage relative to management priority included pollinators, marsh birds, reptiles, and shore birds. A follow-up workshop and survey focused on clarifying science needs to achieve management objectives under nonstationary conditions. Managers agreed that metrics of inundation, including depth and extent of inundation, and frequency, duration, and timing of inundation would be the most useful metrics for management of floodplain conservation lands with multiple objectives. This assessment provides guidance for developing relevant and accessible science products to inform management of highly dynamic floodplain environments. Although the problems facing managers of these lands are complex, products focused on a small suite of inundation metrics were determined to be the most useful to guide the decision making process.

Upper Mississippi River, Middle Mississippi River,↗
USGS2014

Differential invasion success of salmonids in southern Chile: patterns and hypotheses

Biological invasions create complex ecological and societal issues worldwide. Most of the knowledge about invasions comes only from successful invaders, but less is known about which processes determine the differential success of invasions. In this review, we develop a framework to identify the main dimensions driving the success and failure of invaders, including human influences, characteristics of the invader, and biotic interactions. We apply this framework by contrasting hypotheses and available evidence to explain variability in invasion success for 12 salmonids introduced to Chile. The success of Oncorhynchus mykiss and Salmo trutta seems to be influenced by a context-specific combination of their phenotypic plasticity, low ecosystem resistance, and propagule pressure. These well-established invaders may limit the success of subsequently introduced salmonids, with the possible exception of O. tshawytscha, which has a short freshwater residency and limited spatial overlap with trout. Although propagule pressure is high for O. kisutch and S. salar due to their intensive use in aquaculture, their lack of success in Chile may be explained by environmental resistance, including earlier spawning times than in their native ranges, and interactions with previously established and resident Rainbow Trout. Other salmonids have also failed to establish, and they exhibit a suite of ecological traits, environmental resistance, and limited propagule pressure that are variably associated with their lack of success. Collectively, understanding how the various drivers of invasion success interact may explain the differential success of invaders and provide key guidance for managing both positive and negative outcomes associated with their presence.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2016

Differences in coastal subsidence in southern Oregon (USA) during at least six prehistoric megathrust earthquakes

Stratigraphic, sedimentologic (including CT 3D X-ray tomography scans), foraminiferal, and radiocarbon analyses show that at least six of seven abrupt peat-to-mud contacts in cores from a tidal marsh at Talbot Creek (South Slough, Coos Bay), record sudden subsidence (relative sea-level rise) during great megathrust earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Data for one contact are insufficient to infer whether or not it records a great earthquake—it may also have formed through local, non-seismic, hydrographic processes. To estimate the amount of subsidence marked by each contact, we expanded a previous regional modern foraminiferal dataset to 174 samples from six Oregon estuaries. Using a transfer function derived from the new dataset, estimates of coseismic subsidence across the six earthquake contacts vary from 0.31 m to 0.75 m. Comparison of subsidence estimates for three contacts in adjacent cores shows within-site differences of ≤0.10 m, about half the ±0.22 m error, although some estimates may be minimums due to uncertain ecological preferences for Balticammina pseudomacrescens in brackish environments and almost monospecific assemblages of Miliammina fusca on tidal flats. We also account for the influence of taphonomic processes, such as infiltration of mud with mixed foraminiferal assemblages into peat, on subsidence estimates. Comparisons of our subsidence estimates with values for correlative contacts at other Oregon sites suggest that some of our estimates are minimums and that Cascadia's megathrust earthquake ruptures have been heterogeneous over the past 3500 years.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2023

Quantifying uncertainty in coastal salinity regime for biological application using quantile regression

Salinity regimes in coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and driven by complex geomorphic and hydrological processes. Estuarine biota are generally adapted to salinity fluctuation, but are vulnerable to salinity extremes. Characterizing coastal salinity regime for ecological studies therefore requires representing extremes of salinity ranges at time scales relevant to ecology (e.g., daily, monthly, and seasonally). Here, we propose a framework for modeling coastal salinity with these overall goals: (1) quantify uncertainty in salinity associated with important terrestrial and oceanographic drivers, (2) examine time scales of salinity response to river streamflow events, and (3) predict salinity continuously over space at key time scales. Salinity is modeled as quantile surfaces related to river discharge, tidal dynamics, wind, and spatial location, applied to Suwannee Sound estuary, FL, USA, where salinity has been monitored spatially since 1981. Each quantile level is regressed independently, and together they comprise a distribution of salinity uncertainty across space, with upper and lower quantiles describing salinity extremes. Effects of physical drivers on salinity are compared through four base models with various combinations of tide and wind variables, each including spatial coordinates and a single streamflow metric (in cubic meters per second). Multiple time scales of streamflow are considered by taking means across various periods, from 1 to 12 days, and at various lagged intervals prior to salinity sample, totaling 144 streamflow metrics. We found that the Suwannee coastal salinity regime is dynamic at multiple time scales and varies nonlinearly across space from the river effluence outward. Salinity increases nonlinearly with decreasing river flow rates below 200 m 3 /s, most prominently in the lower quantiles of salinity (τ = 0.05–0.25). Wind appears to have a stronger influence on salinity than astronomic tides for this estuary. The regression approach developed here can be applied to any coastal system that has sufficient spatial and temporal monitoring coverage to capture multiple flood and drought events. It is implemented with a simple R routine, and is less computationally-intensive than finite difference hydrodynamic modeling. The characterizations of salinity uncertainty developed in these analyses can be directly applied to future studies of fish and wildlife responses to changes in watershed management.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Stock composition of the historical New York Bight Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) intercept fishery revealed through microsatellite analysis of archived spines

A targeted commercial fishery for Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus once operated in the New York Bight, where it was assumed that most harvested Atlantic Sturgeon were natal to the Hudson River population. However, more recent evidence suggests that the fishery may have been targeting a mixed-stock aggregation, in which case harvested Atlantic Sturgeon could have been comprised of individuals from multiple populations throughout the species’ range. Although there is now a moratorium on Atlantic Sturgeon harvest in the New York Bight, modern molecular approaches provide an opportunity to use archived tissues to perform a retrospective mixed-stock analysis on the fishery. Genomic DNA extracted from archived fin spines from 80 Atlantic Sturgeon collected nearly 30 years ago suggests that the fishery primarily harvested individuals from the Hudson River population. However, based on individual-based assignment tests, our results indicate that the fishery also harvested individuals from at least eight other populations located throughout the species’ range. This study highlights how archival hard parts that were previously used for age and growth analyses can be employed for retrospective genetic analyses. Further, because the New York Bight harbors relatively high concentrations of Atlantic Sturgeon, the study shows how localized management decisions can influence Atlantic Sturgeon conservation at rangewide scales. When integrated with more recent knowledge of species ecology, these analyses can be used to evaluate the efficacy of previous management strategies and understand the effects of historical processes on contemporary demography.

New York↗
USGS2025

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Global review reveals how disparate study motivations, analytical designs, and focal ions limit understanding of salinization effects on freshwater animals

Global salinization of freshwaters is adversely affecting biotic communities and ecosystem processes. We reviewed six decades (1960–2020) of literature published on animal responses to increased salinities across different taxonomic and ecological contexts and identified knowledge gaps. From 585 journal articles, we characterized 5924 responses of mollusks, crustaceans, zooplankton, non-arthropod invertebrates (NAI), insects, fishes, and amphibians to salinization. Insects and fishes were the most studied taxa; Na + and Cl − were the most studied ions − . Collectively, concentrations of the ions examined typically spanned five orders of magnitude. Species' invasiveness was a key motivation for studying mollusks, crustaceans, and fishes; threats of urbanization and road salts were key motivations for studying NAI, zooplankton, and amphibians. Laboratory studies were more common than field studies for most taxa. Focal life stages in laboratory studies varied widely but juveniles and adults were represented similarly in field studies. Studies of mollusks, NAI, and crustacean focused on adults; studies of zooplankton, insects, fishes, and amphibians focused on juveniles. Organismal- and population-level responses measuring solute uptake, internal chemistry, body condition, or ion concentrations predominated laboratory studies; population- and assemblage-level responses measuring abundance, spatial distribution, or assemblage composition predominated field studies. Negative responses to salinization predominated but positive and unimodal responses were apparent across all taxa and organizational levels. Key topics for further research include a) salinity responses by more taxa, b) responses to especially toxic ions (i.e., potassium, bicarbonate, sulfate, magnesium), c) mechanisms causing positive and unimodal responses, d) traits underpinning responses, e) effects transcending organizational levels, f) ion-specific response thresholds, and g) interactions between salinity and other stressors. Our review suggests inter-taxa variation in sensitivity to salinization reflects occurrence of certain biological traits, including gill-breathing, semi-permeable skin, multiple life stages, and limited mobility. We propose a traits-based framework to predict salinization sensitivity from shared traits. This evolutionary approach could inform management aimed at preventing or reducing adverse impacts of freshwater salinization.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2019

Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2013

Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

Physical Geography↗
USGS2006

A trait-based test for habitat filtering: Convex hull volume

Community assembly theory suggests that two processes affect the distribution of trait values within communities: competition and habitat filtering. Within a local community, competition leads to ecological differentiation of coexisting species, while habitat filtering reduces the spread of trait values, reflecting shared ecological tolerances. Many statistical tests for the effects of competition exist in the literature, but measures of habitat filtering are less well-developed. Here, we present convex hull volume, a construct from computational geometry, which provides an n-dimensional measure of the volume of trait space occupied by species in a community. Combined with ecological null models, this measure offers a useful test for habitat filtering. We use convex hull volume and a null model to analyze California woody-plant trait and community data. Our results show that observed plant communities occupy less trait space than expected from random assembly, a result consistent with habitat filtering. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2009

Selected achievements, science directions, and new opportunities for the WEBB small watershed research program

Over nearly two decades, the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) small watershed research program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented how water and solute fluxes, nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics, and weathering and sediment transport respond to natural and humancaused drivers, including climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. Together with a continued and increasing focus on the effects of climate change, more investigations are needed that examine ecological effects (e.g., evapotranspiration, nutrient uptake) and responses (e.g., species abundances, biodiversity) that are coupled with the physical and chemical processes historically observed in the WEBB program. Greater use of remote sensing, geographic modeling, and habitat/watershed modeling tools is needed, as is closer integration with the USGS-led National Phenology Network. Better understanding of process and system response times is needed. The analysis and observation of land-use and climate change effects over time should be improved by pooling data obtained by the WEBB program during the last two decades with data obtained earlier and (or) concurrently from other research and monitoring studies conducted at or near the five WEBB watershed sites. These data can be supplemented with historical and paleo-environmental information, such as could be obtained from tree rings and lake cores. Because of the relatively pristine nature and small size of its watersheds, the WEBB program could provide process understanding and basic data to better characterize and quantify ecosystem services and to develop and apply indicators of ecosystem health. In collaboration with other Federal and State watershed research programs, the WEBB program has an opportunity to contribute to tracking the short-term dynamics and long-term evolution of ecosystem services and health indicators at a multiplicity of scales across the landscape.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Advances in interpretation of subsurface processes with time-lapse electrical imaging

Electrical geophysical methods, including electrical resistivity, time-domain induced polarization, and complex resistivity, have become commonly used to image the near subsurface. Here, we outline their utility for time-lapse imaging of hydrological, geochemical, and biogeochemical processes, focusing on new instrumentation, processing, and analysis techniques specific to monitoring. We review data collection procedures, parameters measured, and petrophysical relationships and then outline the state of the science with respect to inversion methodologies, including coupled inversion. We conclude by highlighting recent research focused on innovative applications of time-lapse imaging in hydrology, biology, ecology, and geochemistry, among other areas of interest.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2023

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2014

Mercury in fishes from 21 national parks in the Western United States: inter- and intra-park variation in concentrations and ecological risk

Mercury (Hg) is a global contaminant and human activities have increased atmospheric Hg concentrations 3- to 5-fold during the past 150 years. This increased release into the atmosphere has resulted in elevated loadings to aquatic habitats where biogeochemical processes promote the microbial conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, the bioavailable form of Hg. The physicochemical properties of Hg and its complex environmental cycle have resulted in some of the most remote and protected areas of the world becoming contaminated with Hg concentrations that threaten ecosystem and human health. The national park network in the United States is comprised of some of the most pristine and sensitive wilderness in North America. There is concern that via global distribution, Hg contamination could threaten the ecological integrity of aquatic communities in the parks and the wildlife that depends on them. In this study, we examined Hg concentrations in non-migratory freshwater fish in 86 sites across 21 national parks in the Western United States. We report Hg concentrations of more than 1,400 fish collected in waters extending over a 4,000 kilometer distance, from Alaska to the arid Southwest. Across all parks, sites, and species, fish total Hg (THg) concentrations ranged from 9.9 to 1,109 nanograms per gram wet weight (ng/g ww) with a mean of 77.7 ng/g ww. We found substantial variation in fish THg concentrations among and within parks, suggesting that patterns of Hg risk are driven by processes occurring at a combination of scales. Additionally, variation (up to 20-fold) in site-specific fish THg concentrations within individual parks suggests that more intensive sampling in some parks will be required to effectively characterize Hg contamination in western national parks. Across all fish sampled, only 5 percent had THg concentrations exceeding a benchmark (200 ng/g ww) associated with toxic responses within the fish themselves. However, Hg concentrations in 35 percent of fish sampled were above a benchmark for risk to highly sensitive avian consumers (90 ng/g ww), and THg concentrations in 68 percent of fish sampled were above exposure levels recommended by the Great Lakes Advisory Group (50 ng/g ww) for unlimited consumption by humans. Of the fish assessed for risk to human consumers (that is, species that are large enough to be consumed by recreational or subsistence anglers), only one individual fish from Yosemite National Park had a muscle Hg concentration exceeding the benchmark (950 ng/g ww) at which no human consumption is advised. Zion, Capital Reef, Wrangell-St. Elias, and Lake Clark National Parks all contained sites in which most fish exceeded benchmarks for the protection of human and wildlife health. This finding is particularly concerning in Zion and Capitol Reef National Parks because the fish from these parks were speckled dace, a small, invertebrate-feeding species, yet their Hg concentrations were as high or higher than those in the largest, long-lived predatory species, such as lake trout. Future targeted research and monitoring across park habitats would help identify patterns of Hg distribution across the landscape and facilitate management decisions aimed at reducing the ecological risk posed by Hg contamination in sensitive ecosystems protected by the National Park Service.

Alaska;Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Montana;N↗
USGS2023

Compact or sprawling cities: Has the sparing-sharing framework yielded an ecological verdict?

Purpose of Review Global urban land area is growing faster than the urban population, raising concerns that sprawling, low-density development will reduce biodiversity and human wellbeing. The sparing-sharing framework, adapted from agroecology, provides one approach to assessing alternative urban growth patterns. It compares ecological outcomes in landscapes matched for total population and land area, but differing in configuration: land sparing (partitioned between densely urbanized and undeveloped areas) or land sharing (low-density development throughout). We reviewed the urban sparing-sharing literature since 2010 and recovered 15 studies conducted in 22 cities on four continents. Recent Findings Collectively, studies assessed effects of alternative development patterns on 296 species, 21 community metrics (such as species richness), and 26 indicators of ecosystem services or processes (such as carbon sequestration). Sparing was the best option for 51% of individual species; 43% of community metrics; and 27% of ecosystem service indicators. Summary Existing ecological research does not clearly favor one pattern or the other, and new approaches are needed to facilitate decision making and ecological insight. Specifically, future work could (1) explicitly evaluate optimized urban development patterns across multiple competing priorities (such as providing housing, delivering ecosystem services, and protecting priority species), (2) tackle issues of spatial scale and connectivity that are often ambiguous in sparing-sharing research, and (3) improve geographical representation. These advances can be made while preserving the key insight of the framework–that choices between alternative landscape configurations are only meaningful when those landscapes are matched for total area and the level of human needs met.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗
USGS2016

Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers ( Calidris pussila ) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗