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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Double exposure and dynamic vulnerability: Assessing economic well-being, ecological change and the development of the oil and gas industry in coastal Louisiana

The oil and gas industry has been a powerful driver of economic change in coastal Louisiana for the latter half of the 20th century and into the 21st. Yet, the overall impact of the industry on the economic well-being of host communities is varied, both spatially and temporally. While the majority of Louisiana’s oil and gas production now occurs offshore, processing the extracted product is an energy-intensive undertaking requiring an expansive network of land-based infrastructure. Despite the positive economic aspects of this development, there are also potential negatives posed to coastal ecosystems and to communities located adjacent to oil and gas infrastructure. This research utilizes a double exposure framework to explore the relationship between oil and gas infrastructure development, fish and shellfish habitat, and economic well-being in Louisiana’s coastal zone from 1950 to 2010. The approach followed four main steps: (1) Developing a hazardousness of place model to identify areas of magnified risk due to the combined hazards of multiple potential exposure sites related to the extraction and processing of crude oil and natural gas; (2) developing a model of ecological functioning to measure the ability of aquatic habitat to support key fish and shellfish species; (3) utilizing an integrated community economic well-being index to assess change on a decadal timescale; and (4) analyzing selected oil-dependent communities to illustrate how change processes occurring in different energy sectors result in differential outcomes. The results suggest that, for many communities, the dependence on the oil and gas industry has increased economic well-being but also increased sensitivity to natural and human-induced changes, including fluctuating economic conditions, environmental stress, coastal habitat destruction, and increasing social and economic pressures.

Louisiana↗
USGS2007

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing. ?? 2006, The International Biometric Society.

Biometrics↗
USGS2024

Quantifying the coastal hazard risk reduction benefits of coral reef restoration in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Coastal habitat restoration, especially of coral reef ecosystems, can significantly reduce the exposure of coastal communities to natural hazards and, consequently, the risk of wave-driven flooding. Likewise, reef degradation can increase coastal flood risks to people and property. In this study, the valuation of coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), along the coasts of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas, demonstrated the social and economic benefits provided by these natural defenses. Across the territory, more than 481 people and $31.2 million of infrastructure were estimated to receive protection from coral reefs per year (2010 U.S. dollars). In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria significantly damaged coral reefs throughout the archipelago. By combining engineering, ecological, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools, this study provided a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration projects could help rebuild these damaged habitats and decrease the risks from coastal hazards faced by USVI’s reef-fronted communities. Multiple restoration scenarios were considered in the analysis, two of which are detailed in this report. These include (1) ‘Ecological’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 0.25 m high and 25-m-wide reef, and (2) ‘Hybrid’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 1.25 m high and 5 m wide. There are many ways that such structures could be developed. In the hydrodynamic analyses, there are no assumptions about how the restoration is developed. Many practitioners of both coral (and oyster reef) restoration consider that a reef height of 0.25 m might be delivered from planting corals alone and that 1.25 m might require a combination of artificial structures and coral planting. In a third scenario, the analysis investigated the reduction of protection benefits that would occur through the reduction of 1 meter of naturally occurring reef height due to reef degradation. The reduction of protection due to the loss of reefs can also be interpreted as the protection value of the existing reefs. In all studied restoration scenarios, it was assumed that the planting of corals would enhance hydrodynamic roughness, effectively dissipating incident wave energy and reducing the potential for coastal flooding. A standardized approach was employed to strategically locate potential restoration projects along the entire linear extent of existing reefs bordering the USVI, and to identify where coral reef restoration could offer valuable benefits in flood reduction. Potential restoration projects were only located within the existing distribution of reefs across the region, even though numerous sites were positioned far offshore (2-3 km), and some were at relatively deep depths (up to 7 m). Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to delineate flood zones at a 10 m 2 resolution along the entire region's reef-lined shorelines for all the potential coral reef restoration scenarios. These were subsequently compared to flood zones without coral reef restoration. The potential reduction in coastal flood risk provided by coral reef restoration, and the protection value of existing reefs, were quantified utilizing the latest information available at the time of analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. The change in Expected Annual Damages (EAD), a metric indicating the annual protection gained due to coral reef restoration, was calculated based on the damages associated with each storm probability. The findings suggest that the benefits of reef restoration are spatially variable within the USVI. In some areas, the analysis showed limited benefits from reef restoration, which may be attributed to the depth or offshore distances of proposed restoration sites. However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. The annual flood risk reduction attributed to potential ‘ecological’ coral reef restoration in the USVI was 99 people and $6.1 million (2010 U.S. dollars). The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR) for this restoration approach was found to be larger than 1 (i.e., cost-effective) along 11% of the St. Croix coastline, 4.9% of the St. John coastline, and 8.7% of the St. Thomas coastline. This analysis offers stakeholders and decision-makers a spatially explicit and rigorous evaluation that illustrates how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration efforts in St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas could be instrumental to reducing coastal storm-induced flooding. Understanding areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could effectively reduce climate hazard-related risks is crucial to protect and enhance the resilience of coastal communities in USVI.

Report↗
USGS2011

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2004

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS1998

The US federal framework for research on endocrine disrupters and an analysis of research programs supported during fiscal year 1996

The potential health and ecological effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals has become a high visibility environmental issue. The 1990s have witnessed a growing concern, both on the part of the scientific community and the public, that environmental chemicals may be causing widespread effects in humans and in a variety of fish and wildlife species. This growing concern led the Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) of the National Science and Technology Council to identify the endocrine disruptor issue as a major research initiative in early 1995 and subsequently establish an ad hoc Working Group on Endocrine Disruptors. The objectives of the working group are to 1) develop a planning framework for federal research related to human and ecological health effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals; 2) conduct an inventory of ongoing federal research programs; and 3) identify research gaps and develop a coordinated interagency plan to address priority research needs. This communication summarizes the activities of the federal government in defining a common framework for planning an endocrine disruptor research program and in assessing the status of the current effort. After developing the research framework and compiling an inventory of active research projects supported by the federal government in fiscal year 1996, the CENR working group evaluated the current federal effort by comparing the ongoing activities with the research needs identified in the framework. The analysis showed that the federal government supports considerable research on human health effects, ecological effects, and exposure assessment, with a predominance of activity occurring under human health effects. The analysis also indicates that studies on reproductive development and carcinogenesis are more prevalent than studies on neurotoxicity and immunotoxicity, that mammals (mostly laboratory animals) are the main species under study, and that chlorinated dibenzodioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls are the most commonly studied chemical classes. Comparison of the inventory with the research needs should allow identification of underrepresented research areas in need of attention.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗
USGS2011

Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change

Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis . We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew ( Sorex asper ), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2014

Anuran site occupancy and species richness as tools for evaluating restoration of a hydrologically-modified landscape

A fundamental goal of wetland restoration is to reinstate pre-disturbance hydrological conditions to degraded landscapes, facilitating recolonization by native species and the production of resilient, functional ecosystems. To evaluate restoration success, baseline conditions need to be determined and a reference target needs to be established that will serve as an ecological blueprint in the restoration process. During the summer wet seasons of 2010 and 2011, we used automated recording units to monitor a community of calling anuran amphibians in the Picayune Strand State Forest of Southwest Florida, USA. This area is undergoing hydrological restoration as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. We compared occurrence of anurans at sites in the restoration area, to nearby locations in relatively undisturbed habitat (reference sites). We assessed the utility of the latter as restoration targets, using a hierarchical model of community species occupancy to estimate the probability of occurrence of anurans in restoration and reference locations. We detected 14 species, 13 of which were significantly more likely to occur in reference areas. All 14 species were estimated by our model to occur at these sites but, across both years, only 8–13 species were estimated to occur at restoration sites. The composition and structure of these habitats within and adjacent to the Picayune Strand State Forest indicate that they are suitable targets for habitat restoration, as measured by amphibian occurrence and species richness. These areas are important sources for recolonization of anuran amphibians as the hydrologically degraded Picayune Strand undergoes restoration to mitigate the effects of overdrainage and habitat loss.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Linking anti-predator behaviour to prey demography reveals limited risk effects of an actively hunting large carnivore

Ecological theory predicts that the diffuse risk cues generated by wide-ranging, active predators should induce prey behavioural responses but not major, population- or community-level consequences. We evaluated the non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of an active predator, the grey wolf (Canis lupus), by simultaneously tracking wolves and the behaviour, body fat, and pregnancy of elk (Cervus elaphus), their primary prey in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. When wolves approached within 1 km, elk increased their rates of movement, displacement and vigilance. Even in high-risk areas, however, these encounters occurred only once every 9 days. Ultimately, despite 20-fold variation in the frequency of encounters between wolves and individual elk, the risk of predation was not associated with elk body fat or pregnancy. Our findings suggest that the ecological consequences of actively hunting large carnivores, such as the wolf, are more likely transmitted by consumptive effects on prey survival than NCEs on prey behaviour.

Montana;Wyoming;Idaho↗
USGS2021

A combined microbial and ecosystem metric of carbon retention efficiency explains land cover-dependent soil microbial biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships

While soil organic carbon (C) is the foundation of productive and healthy ecosystems, the impact of the ecology of microorganisms on C-cycling remains unknown. We manipulated the diversity, applied here as species richness, of the microbial community present in similar soils on two contrasting land-covers—an adjacent pasture and forest—and observed the transformations of plant detritus and soil organic matter (SOM) using stable isotope ( 13 C) tracing coupled with a novel nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiment. The amount of detritus-C degraded was not affected by the microbial diversity (p > 0.05), however the fate of detritus- and SOM-C across the diversity gradient was complex and land cover-dependent. For example, in the pasture soil, higher diversity led to lower CO 2 production (p = 0.001), a trend driven solely by SOM-C mineralization. There was no relationship between diversity and detritus-C mineralization or production of new mineral-associations after one year (p > 0.05). In contrast, in the forest soil higher diversity resulted in increased detritus-C (p = 0.01) and SOM-C (p = 0.0008) mineralization and decreased mineral-associated organic matter formation (p = 0.02). In both land cover types, retention efficiency—a measure that integrates both microbial physiology and the ability of the ecosystem to retain C—explained C loss and transformation trends. Overall, this demonstrates that the trajectory of C gained and lost is altered by land management-induced changes to microbial communities, soil structure, and chemical characteristics underlying SOM persistence.

Biogeochemistry Letters↗
USGS2026

Selenium and mercury tissue partitioning and trophodynamics in the Lake Koocanusa (USA–Canada) fish community

Mining-related contaminants such as selenium (Se) and mercury (Hg) accumulate in aquatic organisms and transfer through aquatic food webs, where they can exert toxic effect undermining the ecological health of aquatic resources. Yet, how Se and Hg co-distribute within food webs and within individual organisms remains poorly understood. We compiled muscle and ovary Se and Hg concentration data from fishes captured in Lake Koocanusa—a North American reservoir receiving elevated Se and Hg inputs from coal mining operations in the Elk River Valley, Canada—to provide insights into the co-processing of Se and Hg within fish and among fish species, including how ecological or seasonal factors shift these distribution patterns. Se and Hg concentrations (ranges: 0.21–38.7 μg Se g −1 dry weight and 0.01–0.84 μg Hg g −1 wet weight), as well as Se:Hg molar ratios, varied substantially between tissues and among species, reflecting biological and ecological differences. Our results suggest that the decoupling of Se or Hg deposition in fish muscle versus ovary may reflect different pathways of impairment, at the individual and population levels, and that interspecific and tissue-specific variability makes it challenging to set a universal Se:Hg threshold for the protection of aquatic organisms.

British Columbia, Montana↗
USGS2019

Effects of urban multi-stressors on three stream biotic assemblages

During 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment(NAWQA) project assessed stream quality in 75 streams across an urban disturbance gradient within the Piedmont ecoregion of southeastern United States. Our objectives were to identify primary instream stressors affecting algal, macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages in wadeable streams. Biotic communities were surveyed once at each site, and various instream stressors were measured during a 4-week index period preceding the ecological sampling. The measured stressors included nutrients; contaminants in water, passive samplers, and sediment; instream habitat; and flow variability. All nine boosted regression tree models – three for each of algae, invertebrates, and fish – had cross-validation R 2 (CV R 2 ) values of 0.41 or above, and an invertebrate model had the highest CV R 2 of 0.65. At least one contaminant metric was important in every model, and minimum daytime dissolved oxygen (DO), nutrients, and flow alteration were important explanatory variables in many of the models. Physical habitat metrics such as sediment substrate were only moderately important. Flow alteration metrics were useful factors in eight of the nine models. Total phosphorus, acetanilide herbicides and flow (time since last peak) were important in all three algal models, whereas insecticide metrics (especially those representing fipronil and imidacloprid) were dominant in the invertebrate models. DO values below approximately 7 mg/L corresponded to a strong decrease in sensitive taxa or an increase in tolerant taxa. DO also showed strong interactions with other variables, particularly contaminants and sediment, where the combined effect of low DO and elevated contaminants increased the impact on the biota more than each variable individually. Contaminants and flow alteration were strongly correlated to urbanization, indicating the importance of urbanization to ecological stream condition in the region.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2022

Expression plasticity regulates intraspecific variation in the acclimatization potential of a reef-building coral

Phenotypic plasticity is an important ecological and evolutionary response for organisms experiencing environmental change, but the ubiquity of this capacity within coral species and across symbiont communities is unknown. We exposed ten genotypes of the reef-building coral Montipora capitata with divergent symbiont communities to four thermal pre-exposure profiles and quantified gene expression before stress testing 4 months later. Here we show two pre-exposure profiles significantly enhance thermal tolerance despite broadly different expression patterns and substantial variation in acclimatization potential based on coral genotype. There was no relationship between a genotype’s basal thermal sensitivity and ability to acquire heat tolerance, including in corals harboring naturally tolerant symbionts, which illustrates the potential for additive improvements in coral response to climate change. These results represent durable improvements from short-term stress hardening of reef-building corals and substantial cryptic complexity in the capacity for plasticity.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2003

Effects of water level, shade and time on germination and growth of freshwater marsh plants along a simulated successional gradient

1. We examined the effect of soil organic content (1.4, 3.6, 7.2% soil C), water level (+2, -1, -4 cm from soil surface) and duration (13 or 33 days) on 10 species that varied in abundance during succession in freshwater marshes. We also determined the effect of shade (0, 40, 80% shade) and soil organic content (1.4 and 7.2% soil C) on germination of six species over 62 days with water 0.5 cm below the soil surface. 2. Water level consistently affected species germination on both dates. Above-ground biomass was generally higher with increasing organic content of soil, but shade had little effect on germination or height. 3 The hydrologic zone in which species were found in the field was a good indicator of the response of germination to hydrology. Both early successional species and species wide-spread across the successional gradient show similar germination on all organic contents, while later successional species appear to germinate best at higher organic contents. 4. Successional changes in soils are capable of affecting plant community development, independent of disturbance.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2025

Impacts of lake elevation decline on spawning habitat of a critical, native forage species

Objective Lake elevation decline is a global phenomenon with pronounced effects in arid regions that changes the characteristics of nearshore habitat area available to lacustrine spawners, potentially impacting recruitment and whole-lake food web dynamics. Our objective was to understand the potential effects of lake elevation decline on spawning habitat for the Tui Chub Siphateles bicolor , a lacustrine spawner and critical component of the native food web in Pyramid Lake, Nevada. Methods We explored the distribution of ripe Tui Chub in nearshore habitat by associating habitat characteristics to ripe Tui Chub CPUE from a custom gill-net configuration, with data analyzed using generalized linear mixed-effects models. We then explored potential spawning habitat availability at all potential lake elevations using an elevation-explicit model of the basin that we developed based on several bathymetric and geospatial data sets and the knowledge of spawner distribution gained in the first component of the study. Results Ripe Tui Chub catch was primarily predicted by temperature, reaching a maximum between 14.2°C and 24.8°C found at less than 15 m of depth in Pyramid Lake throughout the summer spawning period. We estimated that with a contemporary decline in lake elevation of 8 m, Pyramid Lake will host the minimum area of spawning habitat based on morphometry alone at a 40% decrease from a theoretical maximum. Conclusions A decrease in lake elevation or an increase in lake temperatures—both of which are probable events based on future climate scenarios and estimates of water extraction upstream of Pyramid Lake—is likely to further restrict Tui Chub spawning habitat area. Our results have important implications for ecological water demand in Pyramid Lake and provide managers with information facilitating a science-based approach to managing the fish community.

Nevada↗
USGS2007

The microbial community structure in petroleum-contaminated sediments corresponds to geophysical signatures

The interdependence between geoelectrical signatures at underground petroleum plumes and the structures of subsurface microbial communities was investigated. For sediments contaminated with light non-aqueousphase liquids, anomalous high conductivity values have been observed. Vertical changes in the geoelectrical properties of the sediments were concomitant with significant changes in the microbial community structures as determined by the construction and evaluation of 16S rRNA gene libraries. DNA sequencing of clones from four 16S rRNA gene libraries from different depths of a contaminated field site and two libraries from an uncontaminated background site revealed spatial heterogeneity in the microbial community structures. Correspondence analysis showed that the presence of distinct microbial populations, including the various hydrocarbon-degrading, syntrophic, sulfate-reducing, and dissimilatory-iron-reducing populations, was a contributing factor to the elevated geoelectrical measurements. Thus, through their growth and metabolic activities, microbial populations that have adapted to the use of petroleum as a carbon source can strongly influence their geophysical surroundings. Since changes in the geophysical properties of contaminated sediments parallel changes in the microbial community compositions, it is suggested that geoelectrical measurements can be a cost-efficient tool to guide microbiological sampling for microbial ecology studies during the monitoring of natural or engineered bioremediation processes. Copyright ?? 2007, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗
USGS2001

Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: Inference at regional scales

With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975–1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These results suggest that landscape structure may influence forest bird communities at regional scales through its effects on the total number of species but also on the temporal rates of change in community composition. Evidence for higher rates of local extinction and turnover in more fragmented landscapes suggests that bird communities function as metapopulations at a regional scale, and points out the importance of colonizations and recolonizations from surrounding landscapes to local community dynamics. Further, our results illustrate that the methods used to estimate the community parameters can be a powerful statistical tool in addressing questions relative to the dynamics of communities.

Ecology↗
USGS1998

Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization and turnover in animal communities

Species richness has been identified as a useful state variable for conservation and management purposes. Changes in richness over time provide a basis for predicting and evaluating community responses to management, to natural disturbance, and to changes in factors such as community composition (e.g., the removal of a keystone species). Probabilistic capture-recapture models have been used recently to estimate species richness from species count and presence-absence data. These models do not require the common assumption that all species are detected in sampling efforts. We extend this approach to the development of estimators useful for studying the vital rates responsible for changes in animal communities over time; rates of local species extinction, turnover, and colonization. Our approach to estimation is based on capture-recapture models for closed animal populations that permit heterogeneity in detection probabilities among the different species in the sampled community. We have developed a computer program, COMDYN, to compute many of these estimators and associated bootstrap variances. Analyses using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) suggested that the estimators performed reasonably well. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modeling for future work on community responses to management efforts as well as on basic questions about community dynamics.

Ecological Applications↗