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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Characteristics of day-roosts used by the Northern Long-eared Bat (Myotis septentrionalis) in coastal New York

In North America, Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat) has experienced precipitous declines from white-nose syndrome. As these bats become rare and difficult to capture, additional day-roost assessments to inform management may fill gaps in our understanding, particularly in habitats and regions where such roosts have never been surveyed. Over 2 summers, we radio-tracked 16 individuals from a maternity colony on Long Island, NY, in a small forested patch surrounded by development and ocean. These bats disproportionately selected small, suppressed Robinia pseudoacacia (Black Locust) trees or snags for roosting. Generally, roosts occurred within the interior or edges of this forest patch, rather than surrounding suburbia, reinforcing the hypothesis that Northern Long-eared Bats are forest adapted. Our study shows even small tracts of forest in coastal, urban areas may have conservation value in providing day-roost and foraging habitat.

New York↗

USGS2021

Quantifying the response of nitrogen speciation to hydrology in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using a multilevel modeling approach

Excessive nitrogen (N) inputs to coastal waters can lead to severe eutrophication and different chemical forms of N exhibit varying levels of effectiveness in fueling primary production. Efforts to mitigate N fluxes from coastal watersheds are often guided by models that predict changes in N loads as a function of changes in land use, management practices, and climate. However, relatively little is known on the impacts of such changes on the relative fractions of different N forms. We leveraged a long-term dataset of N loads from over 100 river stations to investigate how the fraction, that is, the ratio of to total N ( /TN), changes as a function of spatio-temporal changes in TN loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We built a hierarchical model that separates the response of to changes in TN load occurring at different scales: Across river stations, where differences in TN loads are largely driven by spatial differences in anthropogenic inputs, and within stations, where inter-annual variability in hydrology is a key driver of changes in TN loads. Results suggest that while increases in TN loads resulting from changes in anthropogenic inputs lead to an increase in the fraction, a decrease in the fraction may occur when increases in TN loads are driven by increased streamflow. These results are especially relevant in watersheds that may experience changes in N loads due to both management decisions and climate-driven changes in hydrology.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS1997

Shorebird-prey interactions in South Carolina coastal soft-sediments

We investigated the simultaneous influence of benthic prey (primarily insect larvae, oligochaetes, and polychaetes) on spring-migrating shorebirds (Charadriiformes) and shorebirds on prey in brackish managed wetlands of South Carolina. We proposed that positive correlations between shorebird and prey densities and between prey reduction and shorebird density might result in a negative feedback loop. The loop would be characterized by shorebird redistribution over time and equalization of shorebird and prey densities (and biomass) across the site. In support of the feedback loop ( i ) there were positive correlations between shorebird and prey densities (and biomass) early in migration; ( ii ) shorebird predation was responsible for declines of 49% in prey density and 50% in prey biomass in a shorebird exclosure experiment, with shorebird density positively correlated with prey decline in open plots; ( iii ) there was equalization of prey biomass across the site, and relative prey species abundance appeared to become more equal. Contrary to predictions, shorebirds did not redistribute after prey reduction, and patchiness of shorebird and prey densities persisted across the site. This failure was attributed to high prey density, even at the season's end, and high water depths. There were no confounding indirect trophic-level effects.

South Carolina↗

USGS1976

Aging immature mourning doves by primary feather molt

This study was undertaken to document the timing of primary feather molt for aging purposes and to examine variability in rate of molt between years and between sexes of immature wild mourning doves ( Zenaida macroura ). We used capture records from a 7-year study on the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of North and South Carolina.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS1999

Internal surface water flows

Introduction The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Program is an intergovernmental effort to reestablish and maintain the ecosystem of south Florida. One element of the restoration effort is the development of a firm scientific basis for resource decision making.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides scientitic information as part of the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Program. The USGS began its own project, called the South Florida Ecosystem Project in fiscal year 1995 for the purpose of gathering hydrologic, cartographic, and geologic data that relate to the mainland of south Florida, Florida Bay, and the Florida Keys and Reef ecosystems. Historical changes in water-management practices to accommodate a large and rapidly growing urban population along the Atlantic coast, as well as intensive agricultural activities, have resulted in a highly managed hydrologic system with canals, levees, and pumping stations. These structures have altered the hydology of the Everglades ecosystem on both coastal and interior lands. Surface-water flows in a direction south of Lake Okeechobee have been regulated by an extensive canal network, begun in the 1940's, to provide for drainage, flood control, saltwater intrusion control, agricultural requirements, and various environmental needs. Much of the development and subsequent monitoring of canal and river discharge south of Lake Okeechobee has traditionally emphasized the eastern coastal areas of Florida. Recently, more emphasis has been placed on providing a more accurate water budget for internal canal flows.

Florida↗

USGS2025

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Tennessee’s economy

Introduction The State of Tennessee has an area of approximately 42,100 square miles and includes six physiographic regions: Blue Ridge, Valley and Ridge, Appalachian Plateaus, Highland Rim, Nashville Basin, and the Gulf Coastal Plains. Up-to-date elevation data support key activities across the State, such as economic development, infrastructure and construction management, agriculture and precision farming, forest resources management, natural resources conservation, flood risk management, emergency management, and urban and regional planning. The State experiences frequent landslides affecting major roadways. High-resolution elevation data can help identify potential landslide-prone areas. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP; refer to sidebar) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at qual-ity level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Tennessee. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Tennessee is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 ( https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec ) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $6.32 million in new benefits annually to the State. The top 10 Tennessee business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2004

Gulf of Mexico Integrated Science - Tampa Bay Study Overview

The U.S. Geological Survey's Gulf of Mexico Integrated Science - Tampa Bay Study combines the expertise of federal, state, and local partners to address some of the most pressing ecological problems of the Tampa Bay estuary. This project serves as a template for integrated research projects in other coastal ecosystems in the nation. The Tampa Bay Study focuses on the scientific needs of the Bay, as identified by resource managers.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Henslow's sparrow winter-survival estimates and response to prescribed burning

Wintering Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) populations rely on lands managed with prescribed burning, but the effects of various burn regimes on their overwinter survival are unknown. We studied wintering Henslow's sparrows in coastal pine savannas at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Jackson County, Mississippi, USA, during January and February 2001 and 2002. We used the known-fate modeling procedure in program MARK to evaluate the effects of burn age (1 or 2 growing seasons elapsed), burn season (growing, dormant), and calendar year on the survival rates of 83 radiomarked Henslow's sparrows. We found strong evidence that Henslow's sparrow survival rates differed by burn age (with higher survival in recently burned sites) and by year (with lower survival rates in 2001 likely because of drought conditions). We found some evidence that survival rates also differed by bum season (with higher survival in growing-season sites), although the effects of burn season were only apparent in recently burned sites. Avian predation was the suspected major cause of mortality (causing 6 of 14 deaths) with 1 confirmed loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) depredation. Our results indicated that recently burned savannas provide high-quality wintering habitats and suggested that managers can improve conditions for wintering Henslow's sparrows by burning a large percentage of savannas each year.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The U.S. Pacific Islands are culturally and environmentally diverse, treasured by the 1.9 million people who call them home. Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their exposure and isolation, small size, low elevation (in the case of atolls), and concentration of infrastructure and economy along the coasts. A prevalent cause of year-to-year changes in climate patterns around the globe and in the Pacific Islands region is the El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO can dramatically affect precipitation, air and ocean temperature, sea surface height, storminess, wave size, and trade winds. It is unknown exactly how the timing and intensity of ENSO will continue to change in the coming decades, but recent climate model results suggest a doubling in frequency of both El Niño and La Niña extremes in this century as compared to the 20th century under scenarios with more warming, including the higher scenario (RCP8.5). On islands, all natural sources of freshwater come from rainfall received within their limited land areas. Severe droughts are common, making water shortage one of the most important climate-related risks in the region. As temperature continues to rise and cloud cover decreases in some areas, evaporation is expected to increase, causing both reduced water supply and higher water demand. Streamflow in Hawai‘i has declined over approximately the past 100 years, consistent with observed decreases in rainfall. The impacts of sea level rise in the Pacific include coastal erosion, episodic flooding, permanent inundation, heightened exposure to marine hazards, and saltwater intrusion to surface water and groundwater systems. Sea level rise will disproportionately affect the tropical Pacific and potentially exceed the global average. Invasive species , landscape change, habitat alteration, and reduced resilience have resulted in extinctions and diminished ecosystem function. Inundation of atolls in the coming decades is projected to impact existing on-island ecosystems. Wildlife that relies on coastal habitats will likely also be severely impacted. In Hawaiʻi, coral reefs contribute an estimated $477 million to the local economy every year. Under projected warming of approximately 0.5°F per decade, all nearshore coral reefs in the Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands region will experience annual bleaching before 2050. An ecosystem -based approach to international management of open ocean fisheries in the Pacific that incorporates climate-informed catch limits is expected to produce more realistic future harvest levels and enhance ecosystem resilience. Indigenous communities of the Pacific derive their sense of identity from the islands. Emerging issues for Indigenous communities of the Pacific include the resilience of marine-managed areas and climate-induced human migration from their traditional lands. The rich body of traditional knowledge is place-based and localized and is useful in adaptation planning because it builds on intergenerational sharing of observations. Documenting the kinds of governance structures or decision-making hierarchies created for management of these lands and waters is also important as a learning tool that can be shared with other island communities. Across the region, groups are coming together to minimize damage and disruption from coastal flooding and inundation as well as other climate-related impacts. Social cohesion is already strong in many communities, making it possible to work together to take action. Early intervention can lower economic, environmental, social, and cultural costs and reduce or prevent conflict and displacement from ancestral land and resources.

Report↗

USGS2000

Managing wetlands for waterbirds: How managers can make a difference in improving habitat to support a North American Bird Conservation Plan

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystems in the world, yet they have suffered more loss and degradation than any other ecosystem. Not surprisingly, 50% (29 of 58) of all the bird species in the U. S. (excluding Hawaii and territories) that are listed either as federally threatened or endangered, or are on the U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service 1995 List of Migratory Nongame Birds of Management Concern, occupy wetland or aquatic habitats even though many remaining wetlands across the North American landscape already are managed primarily for waterbirds. Some of these wetlands are administered by federal and state entities (e.g., national wildlife refuges, national and state parks, state wetland management areas) or are maintained on private lands through federally supported restoration and enhancement programs (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program, Wetland Reserve Program, Waterfowl Production Areas, and Partners for Wildlife). Private organizations, such as the National Audubon Society, The Nature Conservancy, and private hunting clubs, also own wetland areas that are managed specifically to benefit wildlife. If management philosophies are altered to consider the entire complex of wetlands, many wetlands can provide benefits to a broad array of waterbirds, as opposed to just one or a few species. However, challenges for natural resource managers are in forming partnerships with owners-managers of wetlands where the objectives are not primarily wildlife oriented. These owners or managers need to be included in wetland training workshops in an attempt to educate them about wetland values and secondary wildlife benefits that may be derived in flooded agricultural lands, aquaculture ponds, altered coastal marshes (mosquito control), and salt evaporation ponds. In some cases, compensation for crop damages by wildlife may be a necessary part of any cooperative agreements. In the development of a North American Bird Conservation Plan we propose a four-step approach and recommend that emphasis be placed on working with Joint Ventures of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan to ensure that a diverse array of waterbird species will benefit. Efforts also should be devoted to developing similar partnerships in areas where important wetland resources exist but no Joint Ventures are planned.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center--Research activities in the U.S. Virgin Islands

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in Florida investigates earth-science processes related to coastal and marine environments as well as to societal implications of natural hazards, resource sustainability, and environmental change. The Center is conducting ongoing research in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands that is providing baseline information for resource management and for assessing the health of and environmental changes to vital ecosystems such as coral reefs. In particular, projects are improving the understanding of coral health, advancing the ability to forecast future changes in coral reef ecosystems, and acquiring topographic data for use in inventorying, monitoring, and conserving coastal and marine environments.

Virgin Islands↗

USGS2025

Stressor-driven changes in freshwater biological indicators inform spatial management strategies using expert knowledge, observational data, and hierarchical models

Stream ecosystems face continuous pressures from multiple anthropogenic stressors that reshape biological communities and impact ecosystem health and services. Managers can encounter challenges in stewarding ecosystems threatened by multiple stressors, in part because most multiple stressor studies are experimental and, while valuable, offer limited management relevance in targeting these stressors on the landscape. Recent advances in causal inference coupled with large biomonitoring data sets could further understanding of observational stressor-response relationships, aiding management. In this study, we use bioassessment data in the Chesapeake Bay watershed in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States to identify how water quality and physical habitat stressors influence key benthic macroinvertebrate response metrics, considering hierarchical relationships using Bayesian networks. Results suggest water temperature and specific conductivity were prevalent stressors in a mountainous region (northern Appalachians), whereas in an agriculturally dominated region (southern Appalachians) physical habitat alterations were the predominant stressor. In mixed-land use regions (Piedmont & Coastal Plains), specific conductivity was a key stressor, but habitat heterogeneity was important for macroinvertebrate metrics. To illustrate how these stressor-response relationships can be used to guide management decisions, we applied the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework to develop a portfolio of management options based on predicted changes in macroinvertebrate metrics in response to physical habitat and water quality stressors. For example, accepting changes in areas with co-occurring stressors may be the most feasible option, whereas directing changes through stream restoration or water quality improvements may be effective in areas with single stressor groups. By leveraging observational bioassessment data and causal inference to identify key stressor-response relationships, this research supports decision making by building a simple, strategic management portfolio.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2024

Birdwatching preferences reveal synergies and tradeoffs among recreation, carbon, and fisheries ecosystem services in Pacific Northwest estuaries, USA

Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge. In an ecosystem services assessment, we used different service-appropriate methods including citizen science, statistical and geospatial models, and scenario analysis to evaluate three ecosystem services – recreational birdwatching, soil carbon accumulation and fishery production – indicated as priorities for the Refuge, Nisqually Indian Tribe, and surrounding communities. We developed a generalized additive mixed model set based on eBird mobile application birdwatching observations to understand the biological and landscape features that influence birdwatching and to project birdwatching visitation based on scenarios of Delta habitat change. We evaluated ecosystem service synergies and tradeoffs associated with habitat change for three coastal habitat types using scenario outputs from the birdwatching model and published results on Delta soil carbon accumulation and fishery production. The highest-ranked birdwatching models explained 88 % of the deviance and showed that visitation was greatest in winter months when distance to major cities was approximately 20 km. Recreational birdwatching increased with increasing area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed, open access, and total estuary. With increasing forested and emergent wetland area, recreational birdwatching, out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation all increased. With increasing aquatic vegetation bed (resulting from sea level rise), recreational birdwatching increased, but salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation decreased. We identified practical ways in which ecosystem services may be incorporated into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. This study illustrated how use of ecosystem services can help managers make decisions that have greater benefit for wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions and increase local support and participation.

Washington↗

USGS2005

The distribution of phosphorus in Popes Creek, VA, and in the Pocomoke River, MD: Two watersheds with different land management practices in the Chesapeake Bay Basin

This paper compares phosphorus (P) concentrations in sediments from two watersheds, one with, and one without, intensive animal agriculture. The watersheds are in the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay and have similar physiographic characteristics. Agriculture in the Pocomoke River, MD, watershed supplied 2.7 percent of all broiler chickens produced in the USA in 1997. Poultry litter is an abundant, local source of manure for crops. Broiler chickens are not produced in the Popes Creek, VA, watershed and poultry manure is, therefore, not a major source of fertilizer. The largest concentrations of P in sediment samples are found in floodplain and main-stem bottom sediment in both watersheds. Concentrations of total P and P extracted with 1N HCl are significantly larger in main-stem bottom sediments from the Pocomoke River than in main-stem bottom sediments from Popes Creek. Larger concentrations of P are associated with what are potentially redox sensitive iron oxyhydroxides in sediment samples from the Pocomoke River watershed than are associated with what are potentially redox sensitive iron oxyhydroxides in sediment samples from the Popes Creek watershed. Data for P and iron (Fe) concentrations in sediments from the Popes Creek watershed provide a numerical framework (baseline) with which to compare P and Fe concentrations in sediment from the Pocomoke River watershed. ?? Springer 2005.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗

USGS2013

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

California↗

USGS2007

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

Numerical simulation of groundwater availability in central Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i

Since the 1990s, increased chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells (much of which is used for drinking water) and the effects of withdrawals on groundwater-dependent ecosystems have led to concerns over groundwater availability on the island of Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi. An improved understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals is needed to ensure effective management of the groundwater resources of Molokaʻi, plan for possible growth, and accommodate cultural, social, and economic concerns. To address the information needs of managers and community stakeholders on Molokaʻi, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical groundwater model capable of simulating salinity change and reduction in groundwater discharge in coastal areas of central and southern Molokaʻi. Estimates of groundwater recharge needed as input to the numerical groundwater model were made using a daily water budget for each decade during 1940−2012 (the period 2000−12 spanned 13 years) and the most current available data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Total island recharge during the decadal periods ranged from a low of about 189 Mgal/d during the 1970s to a high of 278 Mgal/d during the 1960s. These recharge estimates were used to develop an island-wide numerical groundwater model with simplifying assumptions (sharp interface between freshwater and saltwater; two-dimensional flow). The island-wide model provided estimates of groundwater inflows to the main area of interest simulated with a three-dimensional numerical groundwater model. Simulated withdrawal scenarios were selected in consultation with water managers and stakeholders and consisted of: (1) a baseline scenario using average recharge (1978−2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and average 2016−17 withdrawals; (2) a scenario using average recharge and withdrawals from existing wells at pending (as of January 2019) water-use permit rates; (3) six scenarios using average recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells; and (4) a scenario using reduced recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. Results of the simulated withdrawal scenarios indicate that wells may be capable of producing groundwater with chloride concentrations below 250 mg/L at withdrawal rates exceeding average 2016−17 rates. However, the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and distribution of the withdrawals. For all nonbaseline scenarios, simulated groundwater discharge to the nearshore environment is reduced relative to the baseline scenario. Areas of discharge reduction may correspond to areas used for cultural or subsistence purposes. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Molokaʻi. The model has several limitations, including its nonuniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities.

Hawaii↗

USGS2007

Rapid growth of a Eurasian haplotype of Phragmites australis in a restored brackish marsh in Louisiana, USA

While numerous studies have documented patterns of invasion by non-indigenous plant species, few have considered the invasive properties of non-native genotypes of native species. Characteristics associated with specific genotypes, such as tolerance to disturbance, may mistakenly be applied to an entire species in the absence of genetic information, which consequently may affect management decisions. We report here on the incidence and growth of an introduced lineage of Phragmites australis in the Gulf of Mexico coastal zone of Louisiana. P. australis was collected from nine separate locations for inclusion in a series of growth experiments. Chloroplast DNA analysis indicated that specimens collected from four locations in the Mississippi River Delta represented the introduced Eurasian haplotype; the remainder represented the gulf coast haplotype. Three distinct genotypes, or clones, were identified within each haplotype via analysis using amplified fragment length polymorphisms, which also revealed reduced genetic diversity of the gulf coast clones compared to the Eurasian clones. Clones of each haplotype were planted along with three other native macrophytes at similar densities in a restored brackish marsh and monitored for growth. After 14 months, the Eurasian haplotype had spread vegetatively to cover about 82% of the experimental plots, more than four times the coverage (18%) of the gulf coast haplotype. Thus, the use of P. australis plantings for wetland restoration should consider the genetic lineage of plants used since our results indicate the potential of the Eurasian haplotype to grow rapidly at newly restored sites. This rapid growth may limit the establishment of more slowly growing native species.

Louisiana↗