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USGS1995

Evaluations of duck habitat and estimation of duck population sizes with a remote-sensing-based system

During 1987-90, we used high-altitude photography, aerial videography, counts, and models to estimate sizes of breeding populations of dabbling ducks (Anatinae) and duck production and to identify duck habitat on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service land and easements and on private land in the prairie pothole region of the United States. The study area contained about 3.1 million wetland basins (28,490 km2). Wetland area (ha per km2) was highest on service-owned land; wetland-basin density was greatest on service easements. Temporary and seasonal wetlands were underrepresented and lakes were overrepresented on service-owned land. Seventy-eight percent of all basins were less than 0.41 ha. Cropland dominated private land. Pond density decreased from 4.4/km2 in 1987 to 3.4/km2 in 1990 and pond area, from 7.2 ha/km2 to 2.7 ha/km2. The density of the blue-winged teal was greatest (3.4 pairs/km2) and was followed in magnitude by those of the mallard (2.1 pairs/km2), the gadwall (1.8 pairs/km2), the northern pintail (0.8 pairs/km2), and the redhead (0.8 pairs/km2). Duck density was consistently highest on service-owned land. The decline of breeding-population sizes in 1987-90 closely corresponded to losses of pond numbers and pond area. The density of breeding pairs per pond was inversely related to pond density, suggesting that breeding ducks tended to concentrate on the remaining ponds as drought intensified. The production of recruits followed the same pattern as breeding-population sizes. We estimated that 2.5% of the ducklings hatched on service-owned land, which was 1.3% of the study area; 19.6% hatched on service easements, which were 14.2% of the study area; and 77.9% hatched on private land, which was 84.6% of the study area. Various sources of bias and sampling error and improvements to the system are discussed.

Biological Science Report↗

USGS2014

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2024

The potential influence of genome-wide adaptive divergence on conservation translocation outcome in an isolated greater sage-grouse population

Conservation translocations are an important conservation tool commonly employed to augment declining or reestablish extirpated populations. One goal of augmentation is to increase genetic diversity and reduce the risk of inbreeding depression (i.e., genetic rescue). However, introducing individuals from significantly diverged populations risks disrupting coadapted traits and reducing local fitness (i.e., outbreeding depression). Genetic data are increasingly more accessible for wildlife species and can provide unique insight regarding the presence and retention of introduced genetic variation from augmentation as an indicator of effectiveness and adaptive similarity as an indicator of source and recipient population suitability. We used 2 genetic data sets to evaluate augmentation of isolated populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the northwestern region of the species range (Washington, USA) and to retrospectively evaluate adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. We developed 2 statistical models for microsatellite data to evaluate augmentation outcomes. We used one model to predict genetic diversity after augmentation and compared these predictions with observations of genetic change. We used the second model to quantify the amount of observed reproduction attributed to transplants (proof of population integration). We also characterized genome-wide adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. Observed genetic diversity ( H O = 0.65) was higher in the recipient population than predicted had no augmentation occurred ( H O = 0.58) but less than what was predicted by our model ( H O = 0.75). The amount of shared genetic variation between the 2 geographically isolated resident populations increased, which is evidence of periodic gene flow previously assumed to be rare. Among candidate adaptive genes associated with elevated fixation index ( F ST ) (143 genes) or local environmental variables (97 and 157 genes for each genotype–environment association method, respectively), we found clusters of genes with related functions that may influence the ability of transplants to use local resources and navigate unfamiliar environments and their reproductive potential, all possible reasons for low genetic retention from augmentation.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2021

Assessment of variation in the detection and prevalence of blood parasites among sympatrically breeding geese in western Alaska, USA

Haemosporidian parasites may impact avian health and are subject to shifts in distribution and abundance with changing ecologic conditions. Therefore, understanding variation in parasite prevalence is important for evaluating biologically meaningful changes in infection patterns and associated population level impacts. Previous research in western Alaska, US, indicated a possible increase in Leucocytozoon spp. infection between Emperor Geese ( Anser canagicus ) sampled in 1996 (<1%, n =134) and during 2011–12 (19.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0–36.8%, n =77); however, different detection methods were used for these estimates. Prior research in this same region identified a lack of Leucocytozoon spp. parasites (0%, n =117) in sympatrically breeding Cackling Geese ( Branta hutchinsii minima ) in 2011. We molecularly screened blood samples collected from sympatrically breeding Emperor and Cackling Geese in western Alaska during additional breeding seasons to better assess temporal and species-specific variation in the prevalence of blood parasites. We found similar prevalence estimates for Leucocytozoon spp. parasites in Emperor Goose blood samples collected in 1998 and 2014, suggesting consistent infection of Emperor Geese with blood parasites at these time points. Using samples from sympatric geese sampled during 2014, we found evidence for a higher incidence of parasites among Emperor Geese (20.3%, 95% CI: 11.8–32.7%) compared to Cackling Geese (3.6%, 95% CI: 1.1–11.0%), reinforcing the previous finding of species-specific differences in infection. Furthermore, we detected Leucocytozoon , Haemoproteus , and Plasmodium spp. blood parasites in unflighted goslings of both species, supporting the possible transmission of these parasites at western Alaska breeding grounds. Our results help to clarify that prevalence of Leucocytozoon spp. parasites have probably remained consistent among Emperor Geese breeding in western Alaska since the late 1990s and that this species may disproportionally harbor Leucocytozoon spp. compared to sympatrically breeding Cackling Geese.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Validating the performance of occupancy models for estimating habitat use and predicting the distribution of highly-mobile species: A case study using the American black bear

Occupancy models have become a valuable tool for estimating wildlife-habitat relationships and for predicting species distributions. Highly-mobile species often violate the assumption that sampling units are geographically closed shifting the probability of occupancy to be interpreted as the probability of use. We used occupancy models, in conjunction with noninvasive sampling, to estimate habitat use and predict the distribution of a highly-mobile carnivore, the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) in New Mexico, USA. The top model indicated that black bears use areas with higher primary productivity and fewer roads. The predictive performance of such models is rarely validated with independent data, so we validated our model predictions with 2-independent datasets. We first assessed the correlation between predicted and observed habitat use for 28 telemetry-collared bears in the Jemez Mountains. Predicted habitat use was positively correlated with observed use for all 3 years (2012: ρ = 0.81; 2013: ρ = 0.87; 2014: ρ = 0.90). We then predicted the probability of use within a cell where a bear mortality was documented using 2043 mortality locations from sport harvest, depredation, and vehicle collisions. The probability of habitat use at a mortality location was also positively correlated with observed use by the species (2012: ρ = 0.74; 2013: ρ = 0.89; 2014: ρ = 0.93). Our validation procedure supports the notion that occupancy models can be an effective tool for estimating habitat use and predicting the distribution of highly-mobile species when the assumption of geographic closure has been violated. Our findings may be of interest to studies that are estimating habitat use for highly-mobile species that are secretive or rare, difficult to capture, or expensive to monitor with other more intensive methods.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

A novel application of hierarchical modelling to decouple sampling artifacts from socio-ecological effects on poaching intensity

Poaching is a global driver of wildlife population decline, including inside protected areas (PAs). Reducing poaching requires an understanding of its cryptic drivers and accurately quantifying poaching scales and intensity. There is little quantification of how poaching is affected by law enforcement intensity (e.g., ranger stations) versus economic factors (e.g., unemployment), while simultaneously accounting for imperfect detection. Using extensive data of poaching events (i.e., seizures) and censuses of nine ungulate species across the PAs and unprotected lands of Iran from 2010 to 2018, we developed a single-visit hierarchical (N-mixture) model to accurately estimate annual poaching of Iranian ungulates and to differentiate between social and ecological effects on annual poaching intensity. We found that poaching detectability increased with numbers of ranger stations. A recent surge in poaching (2013–2018) coincides with rising unemployment rate. We estimated that 19,727 ungulates (95% confidence interval 11,178–36,195) were poached across the country during 2010–2018. Poaching intensity was positively related to unemployment rate, road density, and ungulate abundance. Our simulations demonstrated that the Poisson and Negative binomial N-mixture models had adequate performance when the conditions of Sólymos et al. (2012) were satisfied, in particular, when at least one covariate is unique to both the detection and abundance parts of the model. Overall, we suggest that single-visit models offer unique insights into understanding the link between poaching intensity, economic conditions, and law enforcement in large-scale landscapes while accounting for imperfect detection of poaching events.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2007

A genetic assessment of the recovery units for the mojave population of the desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii

In the 1994 Recovery Plan for the Mojave population of the desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, the US Fish and Wildlife Service established 6 recovery units by using the best available data on habitat use, behavior, morphology, and genetics. To further assess the validity of the recovery units, we analyzed genetic data by using mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) sequences and nuclear DNA microsatellites. In total, 125 desert tortoises were sampled for mtDNA and 628 for microsatellites from 31 study sites, representing all recovery units and desert regions throughout the Mojave Desert in California and Utah, and the Colorado Desert of California. The mtDNA revealed a great divergence between the Mojave populations west of the Colorado River and those occurring east of the river in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. Some divergence also occurred between northern and southern populations within the Mojave population. The microsatellites indicated a low frequency of private alleles and a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance among 31 sample sites, which was consistent with an isolation-by-distance population structure. Regional genetic differentiation was complementary to the recovery units in the Recovery Plan. Most allelic frequencies in the recovery units differed. An assignment test correctly placed most individuals to their recovery unit of origin. Of the 6 recovery units, the Northeastern and the Upper Virgin River units showed the greatest differentiation; these units may have been relatively more isolated than other areas and should be managed accordingly. The Western Mojave Recovery Unit, by using the new genetic data, was redefined along regional boundaries into the Western Mojave, Central Mojave, and Southern Mojave recovery units. Large-scale translocations of tortoises and habitat disturbance throughout the 20th century may have contributed to the observed patterns of regional similarity. ?? 2007 Chelonian Research Foundation.

California↗

USGS1994

Breeding patterns and reproductive success of California sea otters

Following commercial exploitation in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington recovered at 17-20% a year, yet the California population increased at only 5% a year. This slow rate of increase is perplexing, given that unoccupied and apparently favorable habitats occur throughout the sea otter's California range, and higher growth rates occurred among northern sea otter populations. Better knowledge of the demography of the California population is important in understanding these disparate population growth rates. We studied the reproductive biology and behavior of 53 tagged female sea otters from 1985 to 1991 in Monterey Bay, California. During the study, 136 pups were born to these females. Observations of each female enabled us to determine exact or estimated pup birth dates, which we used to calculate lengths of gestation, pup dependency, and reproductive cycle. Seasonal trends in pupping, in the proportion of adult females with pups, and in pup separations from their mothers were relatively uniform throughout the year. The average interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was 198 days, the interbirth interval was 407 days, and estimated birth rate was 0.90/year for all adult females. For females that pupped annually (did not lose undetected newborns), the average interbirth interval was 342 days, given an estimated birth rate of 1.07/year. Length of the reproductive cycle increased with increasing length of prior pup dependency. However, the interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was delayed among females that prematurely lost their pups. The average length of dependency for pups that survived to weaning was 166 days, but ranged from 120 to 280 days. The maximum preweaning survival rate was 0.60-0.65, less than values measured or inferred for some Alaskan populations. Most pups that did not survive to weaning were lost within a month of birth. The probability of successfully weaning pups and the length of dependency increased ( P = 0.077) with mothers' ages, thus indicating that reproductive success may increase among females with greater mothering experience. The high preweaning pup mortality we observed probably accounts for much of the relatively slow growth rate of the California sea otter population.

California↗

USGS2017

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes Basin: A report on sediment, water, and fish tissue chemistry collected in 2010-2012

Despite being detected at low levels in surface waters and sediments across the United States, contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes Basin are not well characterized in terms of spatial and temporal occurrence. Additionally, although the detrimental effects of exposure to CECs on fish and wildlife have been documented for many CECs in laboratory studies, we do not adequately understand the implications of the presence of CECs in the environment. Based on limited studies using current environmentally relevant concentrations of chemicals, however, risks to fish and wildlife are evident. As a result, there is an increasing urgency to address data gaps that are vital to resource management decisions. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, is leading a Great Lakes Basin-wide evaluation of CECs (CEC Project) with the objectives to (a) characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of CECs; (b) evaluate risks to fish and wildlife resources; and (c) develop tools to aid resource managers in detecting, averting, or minimizing the ecological consequences to fish and wildlife that are exposed to CECs. This report addresses objective (a) of the CEC Project, summarizing sediment and water chemistry data collected from 2010 to 2012 and fish liver tissue chemistry data collected in 2012; characterizes the sampling locations with respect to potential sources of CECs in the landscape; and provides an initial interpretation of the variation in CEC concentrations relative to the identified sources. Data collected during the first three years of our study, which included 12 sampling locations and analysis of 134 chemicals, indicate that contaminants were more frequently detected in sediment compared to water. Chemicals classified as alkyphenols, flavors/ fragrances, hormones, PAHs, and sterols had higher average detection frequencies in sediment compared to water, while the opposite was observed for pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and plasticizers/flame retardants. The St. Louis River and Maumee River sampling locations had the most CEC detections in water and sediment, relative to other sites, as well as the largest number of maximum detected concentrations across all sites in the Basin. No consistent temporal CEC occurrence patterns were observed at locations sampled multiple times each day. Most appearances and increases in chemical concentrations in sediments occurred at sites immediately downstream from wastewater treatment plants and at sites with predominantly developed land use. The location with the most observed appearances and increases was the St. Louis River. Perfluorinated compounds were commonly detected in fish liver tissues with detections in 100% of both benthic and pelagic species. The occurrence of these chemicals in liver tissue of benthic and pelagic species was generally similar. Abstract

Great Lakes Basin↗

USGS1978

Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus): A literature survey and status report

It is generally agreed that the genus Odobenus includes only one species, O. rosmarus . At least two subspecies are widely recognized: O. r. rosmarus , the Atlantic walrus, and O. r. divergens , the Pacific walrus. A third nominal subspecies, O. r. laptevi , the Laptev walrus, is designated by some Soviet researchers; and the taxonomic status of the Kara Sea walrus is undetermined. The range and abundance of nearly all walrus stocks have been seriously reduced by intensive human exploitation. The Atlantic walrus, the principal subject of this study, remains plentiful in only three known areas of concentration: northern Hudson Bay and northern Foxe Basin in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and the Thule district of northwest Greenland. This animal is no longer the object of large-scale commercial hunting, but is still subject to heavy subsistence hunting by native groups in some areas. The status of the walrus population in Canada was investigated in the 1950's and is believed to have changed little since that time. There are probably no more than about 10,000 walruses in Canadian waters, virtually all of them in the eastern arctic. The biology, ecology, and exploitation of walruses in the Thule district were studied during the 1940's, and some information is available concerning recent catch levels and hunting practices. The Polar Eskimos of north Greenland continue to organize much of their cultural and economic life around the hunting of walruses, and the species remains abundant in their area, numbering at least a few thousand. The walrus stocks off west Greenland and in the Greenland, Barents, and Kara seas are the most critically depleted. No systematic field investigations of walruses east of Greenland have been made since the Kara Sea and Franz Josef Land populations were studied in the mid-1930's. Opportunistic sighting records and compilations of historical catch information indicate that the herds of many tens of thousands that once inhabited Svalbard, Bear Island, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, and other parts of the Eurasian Arctic have been very nearly extirpated. Measures to curb the international trade in walrus ivory and skins may benefit the Atlantic subspecies in Canada and north Greenland. Enforcement of existing regulations pertaining to hunting by aborigines, and perhaps the imposition of further restrictions on such activities, are necessary if the subspecies is to approach full recovery. Field studies in the northeast Atlantic and off west Greenland would help determine the current status of walruses and provide a better understanding of the requirements for their recovery in these areas. The Laptev walrus seems to have been reduced by overexploitation, but available information, most of it translated from Russian, is inconclusive. This subspecies was thought to number around 4,000 to 5,000 in 1975, and Soviet scientists have remarked on the need for a reduction in hunting pressure and protection of its habitat.

Wildlife Research Report↗

USGS2013

Permeability of roads to movement of scrubland lizards and small mammals

A primary objective of road ecology is to understand and predict how roads affect connectivity of wildlife populations. Road avoidance behavior can fragment populations, whereas lack of road avoidance can result in high mortality due to wildlife-vehicle collisions. Many small animal species focus their activities to particular microhabitats within their larger habitat. We sought to assess how different types of roads affect the movement of small vertebrates and to explore whether responses to roads may be predictable on the basis of animal life history or microhabitat preferences preferences. We tracked the movements of fluorescently marked animals at 24 sites distributed among 3 road types: low-use dirt, low-use secondary paved, and rural 2-lane highway. Most data we collected were on the San Diego pocket mouse ( Chaetodipus fallax ), cactus mouse ( Peromyscus eremicus ), western fence lizard ( Sceloporus occidentalis ), orange-throated whiptail ( Aspidoscelis hyperythra ), Dulzura kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys simulans ) (dirt, secondary paved), and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) (highway only). San Diego pocket mice and cactus mice moved onto dirt roads but not onto a low-use paved road of similar width or onto the highway, indicating they avoidpaved road substrate. Both lizard species moved onto the dirt and secondary paved roads but avoided the rural 2-lane rural highway, indicating they may avoid noise, vibration, or visual disturbance from a steady flow of traffic. Kangaroo rats did not avoid the dirt or secondary paved roads. Overall, dirt and secondary roads were more permeable to species that prefer to forage or bask in open areas of their habitat, rather than under the cover of rocks or shrubs. However, all study species avoided the rural 2-lane highway. Our results suggest that microhabitat use preferences and road substrate help predict species responses to low-use roads,but roads with heavy traffic may deter movement of a much wider range of small animal species.

California↗

USGS2016

Increased body mass of ducks wintering in California's Central Valley

Waterfowl managers lack the information needed to fully evaluate the biological effects of their habitat conservation programs. We studied body condition of dabbling ducks shot by hunters at public hunting areas throughout the Central Valley of California during 2006–2008 compared with condition of ducks from 1979 to 1993. These time periods coincide with habitat increases due to Central Valley Joint Venture conservation programs and changing agricultural practices; we modeled to ascertain whether body condition differed among waterfowl during these periods. Three dataset comparisons indicate that dabbling duck body mass was greater in 2006–2008 than earlier years and the increase was greater in the Sacramento Valley and Suisun Marsh than in the San Joaquin Valley, differed among species (mallard [ Anas platyrhynchos ], northern pintail [ Anas acuta ], America wigeon [ Anas americana ], green-winged teal [ Anas crecca ], and northern shoveler [ Anas clypeata ]), and was greater in ducks harvested late in the season. Change in body mass also varied by age–sex cohort and month for all 5 species and by September–January rainfall for all except green-winged teal. The random effect of year nested in period, and sometimes interacting with other factors, improved models in many cases. Results indicate that improved habitat conditions in the Central Valley have resulted in increased winter body mass of dabbling ducks, especially those that feed primarily on seeds, and this increase was greater in regions where area of post-harvest flooding of rice and other crops, and wetland area, has increased. Conservation programs that continue to promote post-harvest flooding and other agricultural practices that benefit wintering waterfowl and continue to restore and conserve wetlands would likely help maintain body condition of wintering dabbling ducks in the Central Valley of California.

California↗

USGS2021

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2025

Factors influencing daily nest survival rates of Aleutian terns in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska

The Aleutian tern ( Onychoprion aleuticus ) is a species of high conservation concern in Alaska, USA, owing to large declines at known breeding locations since the 1960s. The small population size and ephemeral behavior of this species have limited the collection of basic biological information and hindered the identification of potential drivers of this decline. Significant unknowns include the factors, and their relative importance, influencing nest survival. To investigate these questions, we estimated daily nest survival (DNS) for 148 nests from 5 breeding colonies during 2017 to 2020 in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska with 105 monitored using remote cameras. We used the nest survival model in program MARK to estimate DNS rates as a function of colony location, year, within-season time trends, vegetation cover and height, and 6 daily weather covariates. Our top model suggested that DNS rates increased with vegetation height, decreased as the season progressed, and included a significant interaction between year and colony. Average nest success (i.e., percent chance that a nest survived to hatch) over the 22-day incubation period varied by colony but was generally very low, averaging 1.2% (95% CI = 0–11%) in 2017–2018 to 14% (95% CI = 0.1–38%) in 2019–2020 across all colonies. The importance of year in the model suggests that a large-scale annual driver, like food availability, may have played an important role in this species' breeding success. A severe marine heatwave was present in the Gulf of Alaska during 2014–2016 and our results suggest that some effects of this anomalous event, such as reduced prey availability, lingered even after temperatures returned to normal. Additionally, the variation in DNS across colony locations indicated that local factors, such as predation pressure, may also drive significant variation in Aleutian tern productivity. These findings suggest that a combination of local factors and climate change may be important drivers of the >90% decline in Alaska's breeding population of Aleutian terns.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Impact of wildfire on levels of mercury in forested watershed systems: Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

Atmospheric deposition of mercury to remote lakes in mid-continental and eastern North America has increased approximately threefold since the mid-1800s (Swain and others, 1992; Fitzgerald and others, 1998; Engstrom and others, 2007). As a result, concerns for human and wildlife health related to mercury contamination have become widespread. Despite an apparent recent decline in atmospheric deposition of mercury in many areas of the Upper Midwest (Engstrom and Swain, 1997; Engstrom and others, 2007), lakes in which fish contain levels of mercury deemed unacceptable for human consumption and possibly unacceptable for fish-consuming wildlife are being detected with increasing frequency. In northern Minnesota, Voyageurs National Park (VNP) (fig. 1) protects a series of southern boreal lakes and wetlands situated on bedrock of the Precambrian Canadian Shield. Mercury contamination has become a significant resource issue within VNP as high concentrations of mercury in loons, bald eagle eaglets, grebes, northern pike, and other species of wildlife and fish have been found. The two most mercury-contaminated lakes in Minnesota, measured as methylmercury in northern pike ( Esox lucius ), are in VNP. Recent multidisciplinary U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research demonstrated that the bulk of the mercury in lake waters, soils, and fish in VNP results from atmospheric deposition (Wiener and others, 2006). The study by Wiener and others (2006) showed that the spatial distribution of mercury in watershed soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) within the Park was highly variable. The majority of factors correlated for this earlier study suggested that mercury concentrations in lake waters and age-1 yellow perch reflected the influence of ecosystem processes that affected within-lake microbial production and abundance of methylmercury (Wiener and others, 2006), while the distribution of mercury in watershed soils seemed to be partially dependent on forest disturbance, especially the historic forest fire pattern (Woodruff and Cannon, 2002). Forest fire has an essential role in the forest ecosystems of VNP (Heinselman, 1996). Because resource and land managers need to integrate both natural wildfire and prescribed fire in management plans, the potential influence of fire on an element as sensitive to the environment as mercury becomes a critical part of their decisionmaking. A number of recent studies have shown that while fire does have a significant impact on mercury at the landscape level, the observed effects of fire on aquatic environments are highly variable and unpredictable (Caldwell and others, 2000; Garcia and Carrigan, 2000; Kelly and others, 2006; Nelson and others, 2007). Caldwell and others (2000) described an increase in methylmercury in reservoir sediments resulting from mobilization and transport of charred vegetative matter following a fire in New Mexico. Krabbenhoft and Fink (2000) attributed increases in total mercury concentrations in young-of-the-year fish in the Florida Everglades to release of mercury resulting from peat oxidation following fires. A fivefold increase in whole-body mercury accumulation by rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) following a fire in Alberta, Canada, apparently resulted from increased nutrient concentrations that enhanced productivity and restructured the food web of a lake within the fire’s burn footprint (Kelly and others, 2006). For this study, we determined the short-term effects of forest fire on mercury concentrations in terrestrial and aquatic environments in VNP by comparing and contrasting mercury concentrations in forest soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch for a burned watershed and an adjacent lake, with similar samples from watersheds and lakes with no fire activity (control watersheds and lakes). The concentration of total mercury in whole, 1-year-old yellow perch serves as a good biological indicator for monitoring trends in methylmercury concentrations in food webs of lakes in North America (Wiener and others, 2007). With a limited gape, age-1 yellow perch that hatched the previous year and resided in a lake for 1 year feed largely on zooplankton and small benthic invertebrates. Thus, age-1 yellow perch provide a baseline for methylmercury concentrations for individual lakes that can be compared across spatial areas. The nine appendixes that accompany this report contain the complete datasets for soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch collected for this study. This report uses data from these three media to provide a framework for evaluating short-term effects of fire on mercury in forested soils and possible effects of the mobilization of mercury from soils on lake water quality and aquatic health.

Minnesota↗

USGS2025

Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl

Emerging infectious diseases pose threats to wildlife populations, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. Climate change can affect infection dynamics in wildlife through direct effects on pathogens (e.g., environmental decay rates) and changes to host ecology, including shifting migration patterns. Here, we adapt an existing mechanistic model that couples migration and infection to study how traits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses contribute to HPAI outcomes in migratory waterfowl, then apply this model to explore potential impacts of climate change on HPAI dynamics. We find that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits. In most cases, traits related to transmission (i.e., contact rates, shedding rates) were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits (e.g., environmental temperature sensitivity, cross-protective immunity). We then simulated the effects of climate change (i.e., altered temperature regimes) on HPAI dynamics both via viral environmental decay and via changes in bird migration phenology. In these simulations, we found that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by increasing time birds spent at their breeding grounds, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections. In contrast, increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact. These patterns depended on the primary transmission mode of HPAI (i.e., direct vs. environmental) and its sensitivity to environmental temperatures. Together, these results suggest that climate change is likely to increase the impacts of HPAI on waterfowl populations if HPAI relies strongly on direct transmission and birds advance their spring migration. Further integrating host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes (e.g., salinity, humidity) could provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗

USGS2022

Manatee population traits elucidated through photo-identification

Data on the demography and distribution of wildlife populations are important for informing conservation and management decisions; however, determination of life history traits and population trends often are elusive. All four extant species in the order Sirenia are deemed vulnerable to extinction; therefore, determining the demography and distribution for populations worldwide is crucial. Aerial surveys, radio-tagging and tracking, genetic sampling and analyses, health assessments, carcass examination, and photographic documentation are all techniques used to study sirenian populations. A 40 +-year computer-aided catalog of images and demography data collected on Florida manatees enables searches of individuals by descriptions of feature (scar) types and has enabled estimates of annual survival and reproductive rates, documented extra-limital movements, and advanced modeling designs. Photography is discussed as a method for the documentation of unique and acquired features specifically on Florida manatees. By means of these features, individual Florida manatees have been re-identified as far from their established range as Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Houston, Texas, and in Cuba, The Bahamas, and Mexico. The length of gestation (11–13 months) and calf dependency (1–3 years), and potential longevity in the wild (> 50 years), have been verified. To meet the challenge of an increasing number of images collected with the advent of digital photography, there has been an increasing interest and potential for new techniques to assist with individual identification. Several researchers are utilizing drones and artificial intelligence to find, photograph, and streamline the individual identification of sirenians as well as other marine mammal species. New techniques have potential to simplify the photographic identification of Florida manatees. Photographic documentation could be a model for demographic and distribution research of sirenian populations outside of Florida and as a tool to monitor the viability of sirenian populations, particularly as threats emerge due to anthropogenic pressures and global climate change.

Mammalian Biology↗