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USGS1983

Principles for selecting earthquake motions in engineering design of large dams

This report gives a synopsis of the various tools and techniques used in selecting earthquake ground motion parameters for large dams. It presents 18 charts giving newly developed relations for acceleration, velocity, and duration versus site earthquake intensity for near- and far-field hard and soft sites and earthquakes having magnitudes above and below 7. The material for this report is based on procedures developed at the Waterways Experiment Station. Although these procedures are suggested primarily for large dams, they may also be applicable for other facilities. Because no standard procedure exists for selecting earthquake motions in engineering design of large dams, a number of precautions are presented to guide users. The selection of earthquake motions is dependent on which one of two types of engineering analyses are performed. A pseudostatic analysis uses a coefficient usually obtained from an appropriate contour map; whereas, a dynamic analysis uses either accelerograms assigned to a site or specified respunse spectra. Each type of analysis requires significantly different input motions. All selections of design motions must allow for the lack of representative strong motion records, especially near-field motions from earthquakes of magnitude 7 and greater, as well as an enormous spread in the available data. Limited data must be projected and its spread bracketed in order to fill in the gaps and to assure that there will be no surprises. Because each site may have differing special characteristics in its geology, seismic history, attenuation, recurrence, interpreted maximum events, etc., as integrated approach gives best results. Each part of the site investigation requires a number of decisions. In some cases, the decision to use a 'least ork' approach may be suitable, simply assuming the worst of several possibilities and testing for it. Because there are no standard procedures to follow, multiple approaches are useful. For example, peak motions at a site may be obtained from several methods that involve magnitude of earthquake, distance from source, and corresponding motions; or, alternately, peak motions may be assigned from other correlations based on earthquake intensity. Various interpretations exist to account for duration, recurrence, effects of site conditions, etc. Comparison of the various interpretations can be very useful. Probabilities can be assigned; however, they can present very serious problems unless appropriate care is taken when data are extrapolated beyond their data base. In making deterministic judgments, probabilistic data can provide useful guidance in estimating the uncertainties of the decision. The selection of a design ground motion for large dams is based in the end on subjective judgments which should depend, to an important extent, on the consequences of failure. Usually, use of a design value of ground motion representing a mean plus one standard deviation of possible variation in the mean of the data puts one in a conservative position. If failure presents no hazard to life, lower values of design ground motion may be justified, providing there are cost benefits and the risk is acceptable to the owner. Where a large hazard to life exists (i.e., a dam above an urbanized area) one may wish to use values of design ground motion that approximate the very worst case. The selection of a design ground motion must be appropriate for its particular set of circumstances.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Occurrence, distribution and transport of pesticides into the Salton Sea Basin, California, 2001-2002

The Salton Sea is a hypersaline lake located in southeastern California. Concerns over the ecological impacts of sediment quality and potential human exposure to dust emissions from exposed lakebed sediments resulting from anticipated shrinking of shoreline led to a study of pesticide distribution and transport within the Salton Sea Basin, California, in 2001-2002. Three sampling stations-upriver, river mouth, and offshore-were established along each of the three major rivers that discharge into the Salton Sea. Large-volume water samples were collected for analysis of pesticides in water and suspended sediments at the nine sampling stations. Samples of the bottom sediment were also collected at each site for pesticide analysis. Sampling occurred in October 2001, March-April 2002, and October 2002, coinciding with the regional fall and spring peaks in pesticide use in the heavily agricultural watershed. Fourteen current-use pesticides were detected in water and the majority of dissolved concentrations ranged from the limits of detection to 151 ng/l. Diazinon, EPTC and malathion were detected at much higher concentrations (940-3,830 ng/l) at the New and Alamo River upriver and near-shore stations. Concentrations of carbaryl, dacthal, diazinon, and EPTC were higher in the two fall sampling periods, whereas concentrations of atrazine, carbofuran, and trifluralin were higher during the spring, which matched seasonal use patterns of these pesticides. Current-use pesticides were also detected on suspended and bed sediments in concentrations ranging from detection limits to 106 ng/g. Chlorpyrifos, dacthal, EPTC, trifluralin, and DDE were the most frequently detected pesticides on sediments from all three rivers. The number of detections and concentrations of suspended sediment-associated pesticides were often similar for the river upriver and near-shore sites, consistent with downstream transport of pesticides via suspended sediment. While detectable suspended sediment pesticide concentrations were more sporadic than detected aqueous concentrations, seasonal trends were similar to those for dissolved concentrations. Generally, the pesticides detected on suspended sediments were the same as those on the bed sediments, and concentrations were similar, especially at the Alamo River upriver site. With a few exceptions, pesticides were not detected in suspended or bed sediments from the off-shore sites. The partitioning of pesticides between water and sediment was not predictable from solely the physical-chemical properties of individual pesticide compounds, but appear to be a complicated function of the quantity of pesticide applied in the watershed, residence time of sediments in the water, and compound solubility and hydrophobicity. Sediment concentrations of most pesticides were found to be 100-1,000 times lower than the low-effects levels determined in human health risk assessment studies. However, maximum concentrations of chlorpyrifos on suspended sediments were approximately half the low-effects level, suggesting the need for further sediment characterization of lake sediments proximate to riverine inputs. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2022

Areas contributing recharge to selected production wells in unconfined and confined glacial valley-fill aquifers in Chenango River Basin, New York

In the Chenango River Basin of central New York, unconfined and confined glacial valley-fill aquifers are an important source of drinking-water supplies. The risk of contaminating water withdrawn by wells that tap these aquifers might be reduced if the areas contributing recharge to the wells are delineated and these areas protected from land uses that might affect the water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation and the New York State Department of Health, began an investigation in 2019 to improve understanding of groundwater flow and delineate areas contributing recharge to 16 production wells clustered in three study areas in the basin as part of an effort to protect the source of water to these wells. Areas contributing recharge were delineated on the basis of numerical steady-state groundwater-flow models representing long-term average hydrologic conditions. In the Cortland study area, four water suppliers operate 10 production wells that withdraw a total average rate of 2,480 gallons per minute from an unconfined aquifer consisting of well-sorted sand and gravel deposits. Simulated areas contributing recharge to these wells at their average pumping rates covered a total area of 6.93 square miles. Simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient from the wells to upland till deposits and to groundwater divides. Some simulated areas contributing recharge include isolated areas remote from the wells. Short simulated groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated that the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities; 50 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less. Land cover in some of the areas contributing recharge included a substantial amount of urban and agriculture land use. The groundwater-flow model of the Cortland study area was calibrated to available hydrologic data by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from model calibration was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the single, predicted contributing areas to the wells. This analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas was larger than the size of the single, predicted contributing area for the wells. Thus, some areas not in the single, predicted contributing area might actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agriculture land use that have the potential to contaminate groundwater. Additional areas that might be in the contributing area included recharge originating near the pumping wells that have relatively short groundwater-flow paths and traveltimes. In each of the Greene and Cincinnatus study areas, one water supplier operates three wells that are screened near the top of the bedrock surface in a confined aquifer consisting of poorly to well-sorted sand and gravel deposits. This confined aquifer is overlain by a lacustrine confining unit of very fine sand, silt, and clay, which in turn is overlain by a thin unconfined aquifer of sand and gravel. The groundwater-flow models for these two areas were manually calibrated because of the limited hydrologic data. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the Greene study area wells covered a total area of 0.35 square mile for the average pumping rate of 170 gallons per minute. The contributing areas extended southeastward of the wells to the groundwater divide in the till uplands. The contributing areas also included remote, isolated areas on the opposite side of the Chenango River from the wells primarily in the till uplands. For the Cincinnatus study area wells, which have a low average pumping rate (34 gallons per minute), the simulated contributing areas totaled 0.06 square mile and were on the same side of the river as the wells, but they are isolated areas remote from the wells primarily in the till-covered bedrock uplands. Land cover in these contributing areas for both study areas is primarily agriculture and forested, with the contributing areas to the Greene study area wells also including some urban land uses. Because the Greene and Cincinnatus study area wells are screened relatively deep and some flow paths to the wells partly travel through the confining unit, which impedes the connection with surface sources of recharge, overall groundwater traveltimes are greater than for wells in the Cortland study area. Fifty percent of Cortland study area wells, but only 9 and 44 percent of Greene and Cincinnatus study area wells, respectively, have groundwater traveltimes of 10 years or less.

New York↗

USGS2010

Hazards affecting grizzly bear survival in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded its range. Early efforts to model grizzly bear mortality were principally focused within the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone, which currently represents only about 61% of known bear distribution in the GYE. A more recent analysis that explored one spatial covariate that encompassed the entire GYE suggested that grizzly bear survival was highest in Yellowstone National Park, followed by areas in the grizzly bear Recovery Zone outside the park, and lowest outside the Recovery Zone. Although management differences within these areas partially explained differences in grizzly bear survival, these simple spatial covariates did not capture site-specific reasons why bears die at higher rates outside the Recovery Zone. Here, we model annual survival of grizzly bears in the GYE to 1) identify landscape features (i.e., foods, land management policies, or human disturbances factors) that best describe spatial heterogeneity among bear mortalities, 2) spatially depict the differences in grizzly bear survival across the GYE, and 3) demonstrate how our spatially explicit model of survival can be linked with demographic parameters to identify source and sink habitats. We used recent data from radiomarked bears to estimate survival (1983–2003) using the known-fate data type in Program MARK. Our top models suggested that survival of independent (age ≥2 yr) grizzly bears was best explained by the level of human development of the landscape within the home ranges of bears. Survival improved as secure habitat and elevation increased but declined as road density, number of homes, and site developments increased. Bears living in areas open to fall ungulate hunting suffered higher rates of mortality than bears living in areas closed to hunting. Our top model strongly supported previous research that identified roads and developed sites as hazards to grizzly bear survival. We also demonstrated that rural homes and ungulate hunting negatively affected survival, both new findings. We illustrate how our survival model, when linked with estimates of reproduction and survival of dependent young, can be used to identify demographically the source and sink habitats in the GYE. Finally, we discuss how this demographic model constitutes one component of a habitat-based framework for grizzly bear conservation. Such a framework can spatially depict the areas of risk in otherwise good habitat, providing a focus for resource management in the GYE.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Geochemistry and age of groundwater in the Williston Basin, USA: Assessing potential effects of shale-oil production on groundwater quality

Thirty water wells were sampled in 2018 to understand the geochemistry and age of groundwater in the Williston Basin and assess potential effects of shale-oil production from the Three Forks-Bakken petroleum system (TBPS) on groundwater quality. Two geochemical groups are identified using hierarchical cluster analysis. Group 1 represents the younger (median 4 He = 21.49 × 10 −8 cm 3 STP/g), less chemically evolved water. Group 2 represents the older (median 4 He = 1389 × 10 −8 cm 3 STP/g), more chemically evolved water. At least two samples from each group contain elevated Cl concentrations (>70 mg/L). Br/Cl, B/Cl, and Li/Cl ratios indicate multiple sources account for the elevated Cl concentrations: septic-system leachate/road deicing salt, lignite beds in the aquifers, Pierre Shale beneath the aquifers, and water associated with the TBPS (one sample). 3 H and 14 C data indicate that 10.8, 21.6, and 67.6% of the samples are modern (post-1952), mixed age, and premodern (pre-1953), respectively. Lumped-parameter modeling of 3 H, SF 6 , 3 He, and 14 C concentrations indicates mean ages of the modern and premodern fractions range from ~1 to 30 years and 1300 to >30,000 years, respectively. Group 2 contains the highest CH 4 concentrations (0.0018–32 mg/L). δ 13 C–CH 4 and C 1 /C 2 +C 3 data in groundwater (−91.7 to −70.0‰ and 1280 to 13,600) indicate groundwater CH 4 is biogenic in origin and not from thermogenic shale gas. Four volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were detected in two samples. One mixed-age sample contains chloroform (0.25 μg/L) and dichloromethane (0.05 μg/L), which are probably associated with septic leachate. One premodern sample contains butane (0.082 μg/L) and n-pentane (0.032 μg/L), which are probably associated with thermogenic gas from a nearby oil well. The data indicate hydrocarbon production activities do not currently (2018) widely affect Cl, CH 4 , and VOC concentrations in groundwater. The predominance of premodern recharge in the aquifers indicates the groundwater moves relatively slowly, which could inhibit widespread chemical movement in groundwater overlying the TBPS. Comparison of groundwater-age data from five major unconventional hydrocarbon-production areas indicates aquifer zones used for water supply in the TBPS area have a lower risk of widespread chemical movement in groundwater than similar aquifer zones in the Fayetteville (Arkansas) and Marcellus (Pennsylvania) Shale production areas, but have a higher risk than similar aquifer zones in the Eagle Ford (Texas) and Haynesville (Texas, Louisiana) Shale production areas.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2026

Earthquake-hazard exposure of residents with potential access and functional needs in the United States

Earthquake response plans and earthquake early warning (EEW) systems designed for general populations may not consider potential access and functional needs (AFN) of individuals with physical, sensory, cognitive, or social limitations. Previous efforts to map the distribution of these populations have focused on social-vulnerability indices that ignore or oversimply these limitations. The descriptive and exploratory analysis summarized in this United States (U.S.) case study addresses this gap by identifying and integrating spatially explicit data for AFN-related residential populations, earthquake hazards, and county and county equivalents for the conterminous U.S., Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We focus on 13 AFN-related attributes that relate to an individual's ability to access information contained in an EEW alert, to understand and process earthquake information or observed ground shaking, and to take self-protective actions based on this information and physical cues of an earthquake. Depending on the demographic attribute, there are millions to tens of millions of U.S. residents with AFN-related attributes in areas considered to have varying likelihoods (2%, 10%, and 50%) of exceedance of a damaging earthquake in the next 50 years. Although these amounts represent low percentages at the national level, the percentage of individuals with AFN-related attributes in many counties and county equivalents substantially exceeds national percentages. No one county, county equivalent, U.S. state, or U.S. territory has the highest percentage of individuals in all AFN-related attributes; therefore, future efforts to increase individual resilience to earthquakes may benefit from understanding the local context of individuals with potential access and functional needs.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2017

Nutrient and pesticide contamination bias estimated from field blanks collected at surface-water sites in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Quality Networks, 2002–12

Potential contamination bias was estimated for 8 nutrient analytes and 40 pesticides in stream water collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at 147 stream sites from across the United States, and representing a variety of hydrologic conditions and site types, for water years 2002–12. This study updates previous U.S. Geological Survey evaluations of potential contamination bias for nutrients and pesticides. Contamination is potentially introduced to water samples by exposure to airborne gases and particulates, from inadequate cleaning of sampling or analytic equipment, and from inadvertent sources during sample collection, field processing, shipment, and laboratory analysis. Potential contamination bias, based on frequency and magnitude of detections in field blanks, is used to determine whether or under what conditions environmental data might need to be qualified for the interpretation of results in the context of comparisons with background levels, drinking-water standards, aquatic-life criteria or benchmarks, or human-health benchmarks. Environmental samples for which contamination bias as determined in this report applies are those from historical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality networks or programs that were collected during the same time frame and according to the same protocols and that were analyzed in the same laboratory as field blanks described in this report. Results from field blanks for ammonia, nitrite, nitrite plus nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus were partitioned by analytical method; results from the most commonly used analytical method for total phosphorus were further partitioned by date. Depending on the analytical method, 3.8, 9.2, or 26.9 percent of environmental samples, the last of these percentages pertaining to all results from 2007 through 2012, were potentially affected by ammonia contamination. Nitrite contamination potentially affected up to 2.6 percent of environmental samples collected between 2002 and 2006 and affected about 3.3 percent of samples collected between 2007 and 2012. The percentages of environmental samples collected between 2002 and 2011 that were potentially affected by nitrite plus nitrate contamination were 7.3 for samples analyzed with the low-level method and 0.4 for samples analyzed with the standard-level method. These percentages increased to 14.8 and 2.2 for samples collected in 2012 and analyzed using replacement low- and standard-level methods, respectively. The maximum potentially affected concentrations for nitrite and for nitrite plus nitrate were much less than their respective maximum contamination levels for drinking-water standards. Although contamination from particulate nitrogen can potentially affect up to 21.2 percent and that from total Kjeldahl nitrogen can affect up to 16.5 percent of environmental samples, there are no critical or background levels for these substances. For total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus, contamination in a small percentage of environmental samples might be consequential for comparisons relative to impairment risks or background levels. At the low ends of the respective ranges of impairment risk for these nutrients, contamination in up to 5 percent of stream samples could account for at least 23 percent of measured concentrations of total nitrogen, for at least 40 or 90 percent of concentrations of orthophosphate, depending on the analytical method, and for 31 to 76 percent of concentrations of total phosphorus, depending on the time period. Twenty-six pesticides had no detections in field blanks. Atrazine with 12 and metolachlor with 11 had the highest number of detections, mostly occurring in spring or early summer. At a 99-percent level of confidence, contamination was estimated to be no greater than the detection limit in at least 98 percent of all samples for 38 of 40 pesticides. For metolachlor and atrazine, potential contamination was no greater than 0.0053 and 0.0093 micrograms per liter in 98 percent of samples. For 11 of 14 pesticides with at least one detection, the maximum potentially affected concentration of the environmental sample was less than their respective human-health or aquatic-life benchmarks. Small percentages of environmental samples had concentrations high enough that atrazine contamination potentially could account for the entire aquatic-life benchmark for acute effects on nonvascular plants, that dieldrin contamination could account for up to 100 percent of the cancer health-based screening level, or that chlorpyrifos contamination could account for 13 or 12 percent of the concentrations in the aquatic-life benchmarks for chronic effects on invertebrates or the criterion continuous concentration for chronic effects on aquatic life.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1978

Landsat investigations of the northern Paradox basin, Utah and Colorado: Implications for radioactive waste emplacement Part 1. Lineaments and alignments

The first stages of a remote-sensing project on the Paradox basin, part of the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) radioactive waste-emplacement program, consisted of a review and selection of the best available satellite scanner images to use in geomorphologic and tectonic investigations of the region. High-quality Landsat images in several spectral bands (E-2260-17124 and E-5165-17030), taken under low sun angle October 9 and 10, 1975, were processed via computer for planimetric rectification, histogram analysis, linear transformation of radiance values, and edge enhancement. A lineament map of the northern Paradox basin was subsequently compiled at 1:400,000 using the enhanced Landsat base. Numerous previously unmapped northeast-trending lineaments between the Green River and Yellowcat dome; confirmatory detail on the structural control of major segments of the Colorado, Gunnison, and Dolores Rivers; and new evidence for late Phanerozoic reactivation of Precambrian basement structures are among the new contributions to the tectonics of the region. Lineament trends appear to be compatible with the postulated Colorado lineament zone, with geophysical potential-field anomalies, and with a northeast-trending basement fault pattern. Combined Landsat, geologic, and geophysical field evidence for this interpretation includes the sinuousity of the composite Salt Valley anticline, the transection of the Moab-Spanish Valley anticline on its southeastern end by northeast-striking faults, and possible transection (?) of the Moab diapir. Similarly, northeast-trending lineaments in Cottonwood Canyon and elsewhere are interpreted as manifestations of structures associated with northeasterly trends in the magnetic and gravity fields of the La Sal Mountains region. Other long northwesterly lineaments near the western termination of the Ryan Creek fault zone. may be associated with the fault zone separating the Uncompahgre horst uplift from the Paradox basin. Implications of the present investigation for a potential radioactive waste-emplacement site in Salt Valley include confirmation of lack of permanent surface drainage and absence of agricultural or other development in the area of northern Salt Valley. On the other hand, the existence of diapirism, salt-karst landforms, and extensive lineamentation of the northern Paradox basin suggest regional tectonic instability at least in the geologic past. Future reactivation of diapiric or other halokinetic processes, including lateral flow, would lead to plastic behavior of the halite that might cause emplaced waste containers to migrate within the diapir. At Salt Valley, existing diapiric boundary faults and intersecting joint sets in sandstone units on the anticlinal flanks could, if the hydraulic gradient is suitable, provide conduits to the halite core for circulating ground water from adjacent Mesozoic sandstones in synclinal areas between the salt diapirs. Moreover, the loci of major lineament intersections might be areas of somewhat elevated seismic risk. If the salt barrier of Salt Valley anticline should fail in the future, potentially water-bearing Mesozoic fissile shales and friable to quartizitic sandstones would be the ultimate repository of the emplaced radioactive waste.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2001

Soil analyses for 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-DCP), sodium n-methyldithiocarbamate (metam-sodium), and their degradation products near Fort Hall Idaho, September 1999 through March 2000

Between September 1999 and March 2000, soil samples from the Fort Hall, Idaho, area were analyzed for two soil fumigants, 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-DCP) and sodium n-methyldithiocarbamate (metam-sodium), and their degradation products. Ground water is the only source of drinking water at Fort Hall, and the purpose of the investigation was to determine potential risk of ground-water contamination from persistence and movement of these pesticides in cropland soils. 1,3-DCP, metam-sodium, or their degradation products were detected in 42 of 104 soil samples. The samples were collected from 1-, 2-, and 3-foot depths in multiple backhoe trenches during four sampling events—before pesticide application in September; after application in October; before soil freeze in December; and after soil thaw in March. In most cases, concentrations of the pesticide compounds were at or near their laboratory minimum reporting limits. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Method 5035 was used as the guideline for soil sample preparation and analyses, and either sodium bisulfate (NaHSO4), an acidic preservative, or pesticide-free water was added to samples prior to analyses. Addition of NaHSO4 to the samples resulted in a greater number of compound detections, but pesticide-free water was added to most samples to avoid the strong reactions of soil carbonate minerals with the NaHSO4. As a result, nondetection of compounds in samples containing pesticide-free water did not necessarily indicate that the compounds were absent. Detections of these compounds were inconsistent among trenches with similar soil characteristics and histories of soil fumigant use. Compounds were detected at different depths and different trench locations during each sampling event. Overall results of this study showed that the original compounds or their degradation products can persist in soil 6 months or more after their application and are present to at least 3 feet below land surface in some areas. A few of the soil analyses results were unexpected. Degradation products of metam-sodium were detected in samples from croplands with a history of 1,3-DCP applications only, and were not detected in samples from croplands with a history of metam-sodium applications. Although 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB) has not been used in the area for many years, EDB was detected in a few soil samples. The presence of EDB in soil could be caused by irrigation of croplands with EDBcontaminated ground water. Analyses of these soil samples resulted in many unanswered questions, and further studies are needed. One potential study to determine vertical extent of pesticide compound migration in sediments, for example, would include analysis of one or more columns of soil and sediments (land surface to ground water, about 35 to 50 feet below land surface) in areas with known soil contamination. Another study would expand the scope of soil contamination to include broader types of cropland conditions and compound analyses.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2004

Earthquake scenario and probabilistic ground-shaking hazard maps for the Albuquerque-Belen-Santa Fe, New Mexico, corridor

New Mexico's population is concentrated along the corridor that extends from Belen in the south to Española in the north and includes Albuquerque and Santa Fe. The Rio Grande rift, which encompasses the corridor, is a major tectonically, volcanically, and seismically active continental rift in the western U.S. Although only one large earthquake (moment magnitude (M) ≥ 6) has possibly occurred in the New Mexico portion of the rift since 1849, paleoseismic data indicate that prehistoric surface-faulting earthquakes of M 6.5 and greater have occurred on aver- age every 400 yrs on many faults throughout the Rio Grande rift. We have developed a series of nine scenario and probabilistic hazard maps that portray the ground shaking that could occur in the Albuquerque-Belen-Santa Fe corridor from future earthquakes in New Mexico. These maps, at a scale of 1:500,000, display color-contoured ground-motion values in terms of the parameters of peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 second (sec) periods. The maps depict surficial ground shaking and incorporate the site-response effects at locations underlain by unconsolidated sediments. The scenario maps are for a M 7.0 earthquake rupturing the Sandia-Rincon faults, which are adjacent to and dip west beneath Albuquerque. The probabilistic maps are for the two annual exceedance probabilities of building code relevance, 10% and 2% exceedance probabilities in 50 yrs (corresponding to return periods of 500 and 2,500 yrs, respectively). We included 57 Quaternary faults, all located within the Rio Grande rift, in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. These faults were characterized in terms of their geometry, rupture behavior (including possible segmentation), maximum expected earthquake magnitude, recurrence model, probability of activity, and slip rate. Preferred maximum magnitude values for these faults ranged from M 6.1 to 7.4 and preferred slip rates from 0.01 to approximately 0.12 mm/yr. Regional source zones and Gaussian smoothing of the historical seismicity were also included in the probabilistic hazard analysis to account for the hazard from background earthquakes (M ≤ 6.5). A numerical ground-motion modeling approach and empirical attenuation relation- ships appropriate for extensional tectonic regimes were used to compute the scenario earthquake and probabilistic ground motions on rock. Amplification factors were then used to modify the rock motions and hence to incorporate site response into the hazard maps. These factors were based on three generalized geologic site-response categories (hard rock, soft rock, and firm/stiff soil) and were adopted from similar California-based categories because insufficient subsurface geologic and geotechnical data are available for the map area. The resulting hazard maps indicate that from both scenario and probabilistic perspectives, the ground-shaking hazard in the Albuquerque–Belen–Santa Fe corridor from future earthquakes could be severe, damaging, and potentially disastrous. In the event of a M 7.0 earthquake occurring on the Sandia–Rincon faults, ground shaking as characterized by peak ground acceleration could reach 0.7 g in much of the eastern half of the Albuquerque metropolitan area. (1 g = 980 cm/sec, the rate of gravitational acceleration.) These high ground motions will be attributable to the city’s location directly over the Sandia–Rincon faults and the amplifying effect of the unconsolidated sediments within the Albuquerque Basin. These levels of ground shaking will probably result in severe damage to traditional adobe construction and even to modern buildings. Long- period ground motions (> 1.0 sec), which are significant to long and tall structures (e.g., tall buildings, long bridges, and highway overpasses), will also be high (> 1.0 g). Injuries and loss of life will be likely. For the 500- and 2,500-yr return period maps, the highest peak accelerations are predicted to be at the damaging levels of 0.3 g and 0.6 g, respectively. All maps show dramatically the frequency-dependent amplification of unconsolidated sediments in the basins along the Rio Grande valley (e.g., Albuquerque Basin). The pattern of amplification and deamplification is clearly a function of the distribution of unconsolidated sediments. These maps are not intended to be a substitute for site-specific studies for engineering design nor to replace standard maps commonly referenced in building codes. Rather, we hope that these maps will be used as a guide by government agencies; the engineering, urban planning, emergency preparedness, and response communities; and the general public as part of an overall program to reduce earthquake risk and losses in New Mexico.

New Mexico↗

USGS2004

Density-dependent habitat selection by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) in tallgrass prairie

Local distributions of avian brood parasites among their host habitats may depend upon conspecific parasite density. We used isodar analysis to test for density-dependent habitat selection in brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) among tallgrass prairie adjacent to wooded edges, and prairie interior habitat (>100 m from wooded edges) with and without experimental perches. Eight study sites containing these three habitat treatments were established along a geographical gradient in cowbird abundance within the Flint Hills region of Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, USA. The focal host species of our study, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is the most abundant and preferred cowbird host in the prairie of this region. Cowbird relative abundance and cowbird:host abundance ratios were used as estimates of female cowbird density, whereas cowbird egg density was measured as parasitism frequency (percent of dickcissel nests parasitized), and parasitism intensity (number of cowbird eggs per parasitized nest). Geographical variation in cowbird abundance was independent of host abundance. Within study sites, host abundance was highest in wooded edge plots, intermediate in the experimental perch plots, and lowest in prairie interior. Cowbirds exhibited a pattern of density-dependent selection of prairie edge versus experimental perch and interior habitats. On sites where measures of cowbird density were lowest, all cowbird density estimates (female cowbirds and their eggs) were highest near (???100 m) wooded edges, where host and perch availability are highest. However, as overall cowbird density increased geographically, these density estimates increased more rapidly in experimental perch plots and prairie interiors. Variation in cowbird abundance and cowbird:host ratios suggested density-dependent cowbird selection of experimental perch over prairie interior habitat, but parasitism levels on dickcissel nests were similar among these two habitats at all levels of local cowbird parasitism. The density-dependent pattern of cowbird distribution among prairie edge and interior suggested that density effects on perceived cowbird fitness are greatest at wooded edges. A positive relationship between daily nest mortality rates of parasitized nests during the nestling period with parasitism intensity levels per nest suggested a density-dependent effect on cowbird reproductive success. However, this relationship was similar among habitats, such that all habitats should have been perceived as being equally suitable to cowbirds at all densities. Other unmeasured effects on cowbird habitat suitability (e.g., reduced cowbird success in edge-dwelling host nests, cowbird despotism at edges) might have affected cowbird habitat selection. Managers attempting to minimize cowbird parasitism on sensitive cowbird hosts should consider that hosts in otherwise less-preferred cowbird habitats (e.g., habitat interiors) are at greater risk of being parasitized where cowbirds become particularly abundant. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Oecologia↗

USGS2023

Approaches for assessing flows, concentrations, and loads of highway and urban runoff and receiving-stream stormwater in southern New England with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was designed to help quantify the risk of adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such management measures for reducing these risks. SELDM is calibrated using representative hydrological and water-quality input statistics. This report by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island Departments of Transportation, documents approaches for assessing flows, concentrations, and loads of highway- and urban-runoff and receiving-stream stormwater in southern New England with SELDM. In this report, the term “urban runoff” is used to identify stormwater flows from developed areas with impervious fractions ranging from 10 to 100 percent without regard to the U.S. Census Bureau designation for any given location. There are more than 48,000 delineated road-stream crossings in southern New England, but because there are relatively few precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality monitoring sites in this area, methods were needed to simulate conditions at unmonitored sites. This report documents simulation methods, methods for interpreting stochastic model results, sensitivity analyses to identify the most critical variables of concern, and examples demonstrating how simulation results can be used to inform scientific decision-making processes. Results of 7,511 SELDM simulations were used to do the sensitivity analyses and provide information decisionmakers can use to address runoff-quality issues in southern New England and other areas of the Nation. The sensitivity analyses indicate the relatively strong effect of input variables on variations in output results. These analyses indicate that highway and urban runoff quality and upstream water-quality statistics that vary considerably from site to site have the greatest effect on simulated results. Further data are needed to improve available water-quality statistics, and because the number of monitored sites will never approach the number of sites of interest for water-quality management, research is needed to identify methods to select statistics for unmonitored sites and quantify the uncertainties in the selection process. Hydrologically, prestorm streamflows with and without zero flows are the most sensitive and therefore the most important hydrologic variables to quantify. Results of analyses also are sensitive to statistics used for simulating structural best management practices. Although the focus of the report is on data, statistics, simulation methods, and methods to interpret stochastic simulations, the examples in this report provide results that can be used to inform scientific decision-making processes. The results of 441 simulations that provide regional and site-specific highway and urban runoff yields across southern New England can be used for total maximum daily load analyses. The example stormwater load analysis done for 16 tributaries of the Narragansett Bay demonstrates that highway nitrogen loads are a small fraction of stormwater loads (about 3.6 percent), and a much smaller fraction of all nitrogen loads to the bay, primarily because highways have a small footprint on the land. Examples evaluating the potential effectiveness of end-of-pipe treatment indicate that offsite treatment is warranted in developed areas, and land conservation may be an effective mitigation strategy. The results of these analyses are consistent with conclusions from other simulation and monitoring studies.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode I↗

USGS2017

Scientific monitoring plan in support of the selected alternative of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan

Introduction The purpose of this document is to describe a strategy by which monitoring and research data in the natural and social sciences will be collected, analyzed, and provided to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), its bureaus, and to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) in support of implementation of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016a). The selected alternative identified in the LTEMP Record of Decision (ROD) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b) describes various data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation efforts to be conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), partner agencies, and cooperators that will inform decisions about operations of Glen Canyon Dam and management of downstream resources between 2017 and 2037, the performance period of the LTEMP. General data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation activities are described in this science plan, whereas specific monitoring and research activities and detailed study plans are to be described in the GCDAMP’s triennial work plans (TWPs) to be developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and GCMRC with input from partner agencies and cooperators during the LTEMP period, which are to be reviewed and recommended by the GCDAMP and approved by the Secretary of the Interior. The GCDAMP consists of several components, the primary committee being the Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG). This Federal advisory committee is composed of 25 agencies and stakeholder groups and is chaired by the Secretary of the Interior’s designee. The AMWG makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning operations of Glen Canyon Dam and other experimental management actions that are intended to fulfill some obligations of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992. The Technical Work Group (TWG) is a subcommittee of the AMWG and provides technical advice to the AMWG. It is composed of technical and science representatives from the same agencies and stakeholder groups who serve on the AMWG. GCMRC is the primary science provider to the GCDAMP and also coordinates many aspects of the science performed by cooperators and partner agencies. The Science Advisors Program provides independent science reviews and advice at the request of the GCDAMP. The plan proposed here necessarily depends on (1) the protocol for decision-making and the requirements for scientific data reporting described in the LTEMP ROD, (2) the priorities of the GCDAMP as directed by the LTEMP ROD (see Department of the Interior, 2016b, section 6.1), (3) the priorities for monitoring and research in the conservation measures section of the Biological Opinion for the LTEMP (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b, LTEMP ROD attachment E), (4) the priorities for resource management and information needs established by Federal and State resource-management agencies within the GCDAMP, (5) scientific understanding about the linkage between the status of those resources and operations of Glen Canyon Dam, and (6) the need to resolve existing scientific uncertainties about the linkage between dam operations and the condition of resources. We note that resource-management prioritization is fundamentally a policy decision charged specifically to DOI for the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, as outlined most recently in the LTEMP ROD, and is not the responsibility of the GCMRC. However, it is the responsibility of the GCMRC to describe the nature of scientific understanding, the nature of scientific uncertainty, and the risk of making resourcemanagement decisions in the face of existing scientific uncertainty. The goals of science activities in the next 20 years are to inform operational decisions regarding Glen Canyon Dam operations described in the LTEMP ROD, resolve remaining scientific uncertainties, and to monitor resource trends that are affected entirely, or in part, by dam operations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Observed and modeled mercury and dissolved organic carbon concentrations and loads at control structure S-12D, Florida Everglades, 2013–17

Mercury (Hg) has been a contaminant of concern for several decades in South Florida, particularly in the Florida Everglades. The transport and bioavailability of Hg in aquatic systems is intimately linked to dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In aquatic systems, Hg can be converted to methylmercury (MeHg), which is the form of Hg that bioaccumulates in food webs. The bioaccumulation of MeHg poses significant health risks to wildlife and humans. Fish consumption advisories triggered by elevated Hg levels first appeared in the 1980s in South Florida. Multiple structures regulate freshwater distribution to Everglades National Park, including S-12D. This report summarizes seasonal and annual concentration and load data from late September 2013 to April 2017 for the total of (1) filter-passing total mercury (FTHg), (2) filter-passing methylmercury (FMeHg), (3) particulate total mercury (PTHg), (4) particulate methylmercury (PMeHg) and, (5) DOC discharged through control structure S-12D. The loads of Hg fractions and DOC at control structure S-12D were determined by pairing discharge data with constituent concentrations estimated by empirical models based on surrogate in situ water-quality measurements. Calculated concentrations of DOC ranged from 12.8 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 27.9 mg/L with a mean of 18.8 mg/L during the study period. Annual loads of DOC ranged from 3,950 tons in 2015 to 10,900 tons in 2016. DOC loads increased linearly with an increase in flow, and the highest monthly DOC load of 1,630 tons was observed in February 2016. Calculated concentrations of FTHg ranged from 0.35 to 1.55 nanograms per liter (ng/L) with a mean of 0.85 ng/L during the study period. Calculated concentrations of FMeHg ranged from 0.06 ng/L to 0.24 ng/L with a mean of 0.14 ng/L during the study period. Generally, FTHg and FMeHg concentrations were lower during periods of decreased flow and higher during periods of increased flow. Calculated PTHg concentrations ranged from 0.09 ng/L to 4.19 ng/L with a mean of 0.58 ng/L during the study period. Calculated PMeHg concentrations ranged from below the limit of detection <0.01 ng/L to 0.29 ng/L with a mean of 0.03 ng/L during the study period. Loads of Hg were often zero or lowest from November to May, owing to the lack of flow or low-flow conditions. FTHg and FMeHg loads increased linearly with an increase in flow and typically were highest from June to October. During periods of increasing flow or following changes in gate operations, PTHg and PMeHg constituted a greater percentage of the total Hg load. Annual loads of total Hg (filter-passing and particulate) ranged from 254 grams in 2015 to 658 grams in 2016. FTHg was the predominant contributor to the total Hg load. Information presented herein provides the first assessment of DOC and Hg loads to Everglades National Park through control structure S-12D using continuous in situ measurements of discharge and constituent surrogates and compares the surrogate model approach to loads calculated from monthly sampling. Analysis of calculated and observed loads demonstrates the significance of flow data on calculating constituent loads.

Florida↗

USGS2008

Volcanic hazards to airports

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries—USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom—have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2024

Least Bell's Vireos and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers—Breeding activities and habitat use—2023 annual report

Executive Summary We completed four protocol surveys for Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ; hereinafter vireo) during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits between April 6 and July 20 at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area (hereinafter Project Area). We identified a total of 136 territorial male vireos; 121 were confirmed as paired, and 4 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining 11 territories, we were unable to confirm breeding status. In 2023, two transient vireos were detected. The vireo population in the Project Area increased by 2 percent from 2022 to 2023. Populations in southern San Diego County also increased (by 6 percent on the Otay River) or were stable (Salt Creek/Wolf Canyon). In contrast, the vireo population at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP) and at Marine Corps Air Station decreased by 2 and 10 percent, respectively. We used an index of treatment (hereinafter Treatment Index) to evaluate the effect of ongoing vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory by using the percentage area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We determined that the Treatment Index for an unoccupied habitat was more than four times higher than that of an occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected habitats that were less treated in which to settle. We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (hereinafter Channel), (2) three sites near the flood channel where limited non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred (hereinafter Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (hereinafter Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 84 territories, 4 of which were occupied by single males. Overall, 46 percent of completed nests were successful, and nest success did not differ among the three sites. In 2023, we found that territories in the Channel had greater hatching success per egg compared to Off-channel, but there were no other differences with regard to clutch size, hatching, or fledging success among Channel, Off-channel, and Restoration sites. Overall breeding success and productivity were slightly higher in 2023 than in 2022, with pairs fledging an average±standard deviation of 3.1±2.1 young and 79 percent of pairs fledging at least 1 young. To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an effect on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort (the number of nest attempts) or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2023. Similarly, we did not detect an effect of Treatment Index on the daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2023 did not reveal an effect of vegetation cover at the nest on DSR. We did find, however, that Channel nests were placed higher in and farther from the edge of the host plant than Off-channel nests. Within sites, we did not detect any differences in vegetation cover between successful and unsuccessful nests. Red/arroyo willow ( Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis ) and mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) were the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) and sandbar willow ( Salix exigua ) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (10 and 13 species, respectively) compared to Restoration sites (2 species), although there was limited nesting in Restoration sites in 2023. There were 51 vireos banded before the 2023 breeding season that were resighted and identified at the Project Area in 2023. Two of these vireos were originally banded outside of the Project Area, at the Santa Margarita River on MCBCP. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 7 years old. Between 2006 and 2023, survival of males (66±11 percent) was consistently higher than that of females (60±12 percent). First-year birds from 2006 to 2022 had an average annual survival of 15±5 percent. First-year dispersal in 2023 averaged 20.2±31.3 kilometers (km), with the longest dispersal (76.3 km) by a female that was recaptured at Wolf Canyon, a tributary to Otay River. From 2007 to 2012, most returning first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, whereas from 2014 to 2016, a greater proportion of returning birds dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area. From 2018 to 2022, the trend shifted, and more first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, except for 2022 when only one out of five first-year vireos returned to the Project Area. This trend continued in 2023: 71 percent of all first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, and 29 percent dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area (San Diego River and Wolf Canyon). Most of the returning adult male vireos showed strong between-year fidelity to their previous territories. In 2023, 94 percent of males (34/36) occupied a territory that they had defended in 2022 (within 100 meters [m]). In 2023, 33 percent of females (1/3) detected returned to a territory they occupied in 2022. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.2±0.9 km. The amount of treatment at adults’ 2022 territories did not affect the distance adults moved to their 2023 territories. We completed four protocol surveys for the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ; hereinafter flycatcher) at the Project Area between May 15 and July 21, 2023. In 2023, four transient Willow Flycatchers were detected in the Project Area. Two transients were detected in Reach 1, one in Reach 3a, and one in Whelan Mitigation. No resident flycatchers were documented in the Project Area in 2023. A total of 46 vegetation transects (516 points) were sampled in the Project Area in 2023. There were 71 percent (368/516) of points located in the Channel, and 22 percent (113/516) were in Upper Pond. The remaining 7 percent (35/516) of points were at the Whelan Restoration site. Foliage cover below 1 m was higher at the Channel points and Upper Pond compared to Whelan Restoration. From 1 to 3 m, foliage cover was similar at all 3 sites; however, above 3 m foliage cover was higher in the Channel compared to the Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration sites. Average canopy height was higher in the Channel (5.6±3.8 m) compared to Upper Pond (4.7±2.7 m) and Whelan Restoration (4.0±2.0 m). From 2006 to 2023, total foliage cover declined from 2 to 3 m and above 6 m in the Channel, in contrast to Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration, where little directional change in vegetation cover has occurred and where vegetation cover has largely recovered to 2006 levels. Within the Channel, the steepest declines occurred between 2009 and 2013 and between 2014 and 2016. Since 2016, we observed an increase in foliage cover, largely herbaceous, between 0 and 2 m within the Channel. Although increases were observed at all height classes after 2016, percentage cover has remained below levels measured before 2009. We sampled vegetation at 45 vireo nests and 45 random plots (territory plots) within territories in the Channel and Upper Pond after the 2023 breeding season. Vireos in the Channel established territories in areas with significantly more cover from 3 to 7 m but less cover below 1 m relative to the available habitat. Within territories, Channel vireos selected nest sites largely at random, but with significantly less foliage cover from 4 to 5 m. Vireos at Upper Pond established territories in areas with significantly more foliage cover below 4 m and from 5 to 6 m relative to available habitat. Within territories, Upper Pond vireos also selected nest sites at random except for a preference for sites with significantly less foliage cover below 1 m.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Determination of steroid hormones and related compounds in filtered and unfiltered water by solid-phase extraction, derivatization, and gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry

A new analytical method has been developed and implemented at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory that determines a suite of 20 steroid hormones and related compounds in filtered water (using laboratory schedule 2434) and in unfiltered water (using laboratory schedule 4434). This report documents the procedures and initial performance data for the method and provides guidance on application of the method and considerations of data quality in relation to data interpretation. The analytical method determines 6 natural and 3 synthetic estrogen compounds, 6 natural androgens, 1 natural and 1 synthetic progestin compound, and 2 sterols: cholesterol and 3--coprostanol. These two sterols have limited biological activity but typically are abundant in wastewater effluents and serve as useful tracers. Bisphenol A, an industrial chemical used primarily to produce polycarbonate plastic and epoxy resins and that has been shown to have estrogenic activity, also is determined by the method. A technique referred to as isotope-dilution quantification is used to improve quantitative accuracy by accounting for sample-specific procedural losses in the determined analyte concentration. Briefly, deuterium- or carbon-13-labeled isotope-dilution standards (IDSs), all of which are direct or chemically similar isotopic analogs of the method analytes, are added to all environmental and quality-control and quality-assurance samples before extraction. Method analytes and IDS compounds are isolated from filtered or unfiltered water by solid-phase extraction onto an octadecylsilyl disk, overlain with a graded glass-fiber filter to facilitate extraction of unfiltered sample matrices. The disks are eluted with methanol, and the extract is evaporated to dryness, reconstituted in solvent, passed through a Florisil solid-phase extraction column to remove polar organic interferences, and again evaporated to dryness in a reaction vial. The method compounds are reacted with activated -methyl--trimethylsilyl trifluoroacetamide at 65 degrees Celsius for 1 hour to form trimethylsilyl or trimethylsilyl-enol ether derivatives that are more amenable to gas chromatographic separation than the underivatized compounds. Analysis is carried out by gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry using calibration standards that are derivatized concurrently with the sample extracts. Analyte concentrations are quantified relative to specific IDS compounds in the sample, which directly compensate for procedural losses (incomplete recovery) in the determined and reported analyte concentrations. Thus, reported analyte concentrations (or analyte recoveries for spiked samples) are corrected based on recovery of the corresponding IDS compound during the quantification process. Recovery for each IDS compound is reported for each sample and represents an absolute recovery in a manner comparable to surrogate recoveries for other organic methods used by the National Water Quality Laboratory. Thus, IDS recoveries provide a useful tool for evaluating sample-specific analytical performance from an absolute mass recovery standpoint. IDS absolute recovery will differ and typically be lower than the corresponding analyte’s method recovery in spiked samples. However, additional correction of reported analyte concentrations is unnecessary and inappropriate because the analyte concentration (or recovery) already is compensated for by the isotope-dilution quantification procedure. Method analytes were spiked at 10 and 100 nanograms per liter (ng/L) for most analytes (10 times greater spike levels were used for bisphenol A and 100 times greater spike levels were used for 3--coprostanol and cholesterol) into the following validation-sample matrices: reagent water, wastewater-affected surface water, a secondary-treated wastewater effluent, and a primary (no biological treatment) wastewater effluent. Overall method recovery for all analytes in these matrices averaged 100 percent, with overall relative standard deviation of 28 percent. Mean recoveries of the 20 individual analytes for spiked reagent-water samples prepared along with field samples and analyzed in 2009–2010 ranged from 84–104 percent, with relative standard deviations of 6–36 percent. Concentrations for two analytes, equilin and progesterone, are reported as estimated because these analytes had excessive bias or variability, or both. Additional database coding is applied to other reported analyte data as needed, based on sample-specific IDS recovery performance. Detection levels were derived statistically by fortifying reagent water at six different levels (0.1 to 4 ng/L) and range from about 0.4 to 4 ng/L for 16 analytes. Interim reporting levels applied to analytes in this report range from 0.8 to 8 ng/L. Bisphenol A and the sterols (cholesterol and 3-beta-coprostanol) were consistently detected in laboratory and field blanks. The minimum reporting levels were set at 100 ng/L for bisphenol A and at 200 ng/L for the two sterols to prevent any bias associated with the presence of these compounds in the blanks. A minimum reporting level of 2 ng/L was set for 11-ketotestosterone to minimize false positive risk from an interfering siloxane compound emanating as chromatographic-column bleed, from vial septum material, or from other sources at no more than 1 ng/L.

Techniques and Methods↗