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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources

Coastal hazards: hurricanes, tsunamis, coastal erosion

Oceans are the largest geographic feature on the surface of the Earth, covering approximately 70% of the planet's surface. As a result, oceans have a tremendous impact on the Earth, its climate, and its inhabitants. The coast or shoreline is the boundary between ocean environments and land habitats. By the year 2025, it is estimated that approximately two-thirds of the world's population will be living within 200 kilometers of a coast. In many ways, we treat the coast just like any other type of land area, as a safe and stable place to live and play. However, coastal environments are dynamic, and they constantly change in response to natural processes and to human activities.

General Information Product↗

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

Comparison of the Wilfley concentration table and hand panning for concentration of heavy minerals prior to geochemical analysis

Chemical analysis of heavy—mineral concentrates of stream sediments is a common geochemical exploration technique used by the U.S. Geological Survey. Generally these concentrates are prepared by hand panning at streamside or in a washtub and then further concentrated using heavy—liquid (bromoform) techniques in a laboratory. Concentration using heavy liquids is slow, tedious, and expensive for large surveys such as mineral evaluation of wilderness areas. In addition the cost of bromoform is expected to increase greatly because most if not all chemical companies in the United States have ceased production of the compound due to problems in meeting the safety standards of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (E.P.A.). Preliminary studies by the E.P.A. suggest a severe health hazard may be incurred by inhaling vapors of or contacting the skin with chemicals like bromoform. Heavy—liquid concentration of thousands of heavy— mineral samples carries an unavoidable risk of exposure to bromoform. The risk, expense, and time required by routine heavy—liquid concentration of heavy minerals should be eliminated by finding other methods to satisfactorily concentrate minerals whenever it is possible. Heavy—mineral concentrates can be used in several ways in geochemical exploration and each way has certain standards for the nature and quality of the mineral concentration required. The nature of the concentration refers to whether the heavy minerals are analyzed in bulk or whether they are split into magnetic fractions using a hand magnet and possibly a Frantz Isodynamic Magnetic Separator.

Open-File Report↗

Diverse tsunamigenesis triggered by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption

On the evening of 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano 1 unleashed a violent underwater eruption, blanketing the surrounding land masses in ash and debris . The eruption generated tsunamis observed around the world. An event of this type last occurred in 1883 during the eruption of Krakatau , and thus we have the first observations of a tsunami from a large emergent volcanic eruption captured with modern instrumentation. Here we show that the explosive eruption generated waves through multiple mechanisms, including: (1) air–sea coupling with the initial and powerful shock wave radiating out from the explosion in the immediate vicinity of the eruption; (2) collapse of the water cavity created by the underwater explosion; and (3) air–sea coupling with the air-pressure pulse that circled the Earth several times, leading to a global tsunami. In the near field, tsunami impacts are strongly controlled by the water-cavity source whereas the far-field tsunami, which was unusually persistent, can be largely described by the air-pressure pulse mechanism. Catastrophic damage in some harbours in the far field was averted by just tens of centimetres, implying that a modest sea level rise combined with a future, similar event would lead to a step-function increase in impacts on infrastructure. Piecing together the complexity of this event has broad implications for coastal hazards in similar geophysical settings, suggesting a currently neglected source of global tsunamis.

Nature↗

United States Geological Survey, programs in Nevada

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been collecting and interpreting natural-resources data in Nevada for more than 100 years. This long-term commitment enables planners to manage better the resources of a State noted for paradoxes. Although Nevada is one of the most sparsely populated States in the Nation, it has the fastest growing population (fig. 1). Although 90 percent of the land is rural, it is the fourth most urban State. Nevada is the most arid State and relies heavily on water resources. Historically, mining and agriculture have formed the basis of the economy; now tourism and urban development also have become important. The USGS works with more than 40 local, State, and other Federal agencies in Nevada to provide natural-resources information for immediate and long-term decisions. Subjects included in this fact sheet: Low-Level Radioactive-Waste Disposal Mining and Water in the Humboldt Basin Aquifer Systems in the Great Basin Water Allocation in Truckee and Carson Basins National Water-Quality Assessment Program Minerals Assessment for Land Management Irrigation Drainage Ground-Water Movement at Nevada Test Site Oil and Gas Resources National Mapping Program Digital Mapping and Aerial Photography Collection of Hydrologlc Data Geologic Mapping Earthquake Hazards Assessing Mineral Resources of the Subsurface Earth Observation Data Cooperative Programs

Nevada↗

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

San Juan National Historic Site↗

PCB concentrations in Pere Marquette River and Muskegon River watersheds, 2002

Polychlorinated biphenyl compounds (PCBs) are a class of209 individual compounds (known as congeners) for which there are no known natural sources. PCBs are carcinogenic and bioaccumulative compounds. For over 40 years, PCBs were manufactured in the United States. The flame resistant property of PCBs made them ideal chemicals for use as flame-retardants, and as coolants and lubricants in transformers and other electrical equipment. PCBs were also used in heating coils, carbonless paper, degreasers, varnishes, lacquers, waterproofing material, and cereal boxes. In addition, they were frequently used in the manufacturing of plastics, adhesives, and paints. During the manufacturing period of PCBs, these chemicals entered the environment though atmospheric release during manufacturing and burning of PCB products, leaks and spills, and improper disposal. Although PCB manufacturing was banned over 20 years ago, PCBs still enter the environment from hazardous waste sites, improper disposals of PCB-containing products, weathering of asphalt and other substances containing PCBs, burning of PCB containing products, leakage from old equipment, leaching from landfills, and release from contaminated sediments. PCBs do not readily break down in the environment, thus remain there for long periods of time. A small amount may remain dissolved in water but most adhere to organic particles and bottom sediments. In sufficient concentrations, PCBs affect human, wildlife, and aquatic health. PCBs accumulate in fatty tissues of animals and fish and are passed on to those that eat them. PCBs are animal teratogens and potentially carcinogenic. They can cause death of animals, fish, and birds; death or low growth rate of plants; shortened lifespan; reproductive problems; and lower fertility. Women who are exposed to high levels of PCBs may have babies with slightly lower birth weights and transfer the PCBs through the breast milk, which may affect the immune system and motor development of the child. Rule 323.1057 (Toxic Substances) of the Part 4. Water Quality Standards gives procedure for calculating water-quality values to protect human, wildlife and aquatic life. For total PCB, the applicable Rule 57 water-quality value is the human cancer value (HCV=0.26 ng/L), In 2002, U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) cooperatively planned and executed a monitoring program for PCBs in water and sediment from the Pere Marquette River and Muskegon River watersheds. The Pere Marquette and Muskegon River are in the west central part of Michigan's Lower Peninsula (fig. 1). The Pere Marquette River watershed is about 750 square miles, and the Muskegon River is about 2700 square miles. Both rivers are popular recreational waters, and the Pere Marquette River is a Michigan designated Natural River (Part 305 of the Natural Rivers and Environmental Protection Act 451 of 1994).

Michigan↗

Detailed study of selenium in soil, water, bottom sediment, and biota in the Sun River Irrigation Project, Freezout Lake Wildlife Management Area, and Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge, west-central Montana, 1990-92

Selenium and other constituents are adversely affecting water quality and creating a potential hazard to wildlife in several areas of the Sun River Irrigation Project, Freezout Lake Wildlife Management Area, and Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge in west-central Montana. Selenium derived from Cretaceous shale and Tertiary and Quaternary deposits containing shale detritus is transported in the oxic shallow ground-water systems. At Freezout Lake Wildlife Management Area, drainage from irrigated glacial deposits is the primary source of selenium; drainage from non-irrigated farmland is a significant source locally. Benton Lake generally receives more selenium from natural runoff from its non-irrigated basin than from the trans-basin diversion of irrigation return flow. Selenium has accumulated in aquatic plants and invertebrates, fish, and water birds, particularly in wetlands that receive the largest selenium loads. Although selenium residues in biological tissue from some wetland units exceeded biological risk levels, water-bird reproduction generally has not been impaired. The highest selenium residues in biota commonly occurred in samples from Priest Butte Lakes, which also had the highest selenium concentration in wetland water. Selenium concentrations in all invertebrate samples from Priest Butte Lakes and the south end of Freezeout Lake exceeded the critical dietary threshold for water birds. Selenium delivered to wetlands accumulates in bottom sediment, predominantly in near-shore areas. Potential impacts to water quality, and presumably biota, may be greatest near the mouths of inflows. Most selenium delivered to wetlands will continue to accumulate in bottom sediment and biota.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Episodic nature of earthquake activity in stable continental regions revealed by palaeoseismicity studies of Australian and North American Quaternary faults

Palaeoseismic investigations of recent faulting in stable continental regions of Australia, North America and India show that these faults typically have a long-term behaviour characterised by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10 000 and commonly 100 000 years or more. Long recurrence intervals such as these are well documented by detailed studies of the faults that ruptured during the 1986 Marryat Creek, South Australia and 1988 Tennant Creek, Northern Territory earthquakes. Thus, neotectonic features associated with stable continental region faults such as scarps and grabens commonly have subtle geomorphic expression and may be poorly preserved. Many potentially hazardous faults in stable continental regions are aseismic, which is one reason why the inventory of these faults is incomplete. Although they may be currently aseismic, faults in stable continental regions that are favourably oriented for movement in the current stress field could produce damaging earthquakes, often in unexpected places. Comprehensive palaeoseismic investigations of modern and prehistoric faulting events in stable continental regions are needed to understand the long-term behaviour of these faults, and thereby, improve seismic-hazard assessments.

Australian Journal of Earth Sciences↗

Avian community responses to juniper woodland structure and thinning treatments on the Colorado Plateau

Federal land managers are increasingly implementing fuels-reduction treatments throughout the western United States with objectives of ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction in pinyon-juniper (Pinus spp.-Juniperus spp.) woodlands. The pinyon-juniper woodland ecosystem complex is highly variable across the western landscape, as is bird community composition. We investigated relations between breeding birds and vegetation characteristics in modified pinyon-juniper woodlands at three sites (BLM, USFS, NPS) on the Colorado Plateau. During the breeding seasons of 2005 and 2006, we surveyed birds and measured vegetation in 74 study plots. These plots were each 3.1 hectares (ha; 7.6 acres), located across the range of natural variation, with 41 control sites and 33 plots in areas previously thinned by hand-cutting or chaining. We found that relations of avian pinyon-juniper specialists and priority species to vegetation characteristics were generally in agreement with the findings of previous studies and known nesting and feeding habits of those birds. Relatively high density of pinyon pines was important to species richness and abundance in 6 of 14 species. Abundance of all species was related to treatment method, and we found no difference in bird communities at chaining and hand-cut sites. We also studied responses of breeding birds to mechanical reduction of pinyon-juniper woodlands scattered across sagebrush steppe in 11 control and 9 treatment plots at Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, Utah, in 2005 and 2006. We surveyed birds in 3.1-ha (7.6-acre) plots during the breeding season before and following treatment. Thinning in April 2006 removed a mean of 92 percent (standard error = 6.4 percent) of the live trees from treatment plots. Two of 14 species, Gray Vireo (Vireo vicinior) and Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), were not detected after thinning. Shrub-nesting birds, including sagebrush specialist Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri), increased in relative abundance in treatment areas compared to controls. However, some species may exhibit a time lag in response, and further changes in community composition and abundance could result. Our findings lend support to the concept that multiple small-scale fuels-reduction treatments, applied over the landscape, may provide the variety of successional stages needed to support a full assemblage of avian species in pinyon-juniper woodlands on the Colorado Plateau. Limiting scale and increasing precision of fuels-reduction projects in pinyon-juniper vegetation communities may maximize the benefits of management to both the pinyon-juniper and sagebrush steppe avian communities. We conclude that small-scale fuels-reduction treatments can benefit many bird species while reducing fire risk and restoring an ecological balance.

Open-File Report↗

One hundred volatile years of volcanic gas studies at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

The first volcanic gas studies in Hawai‘i, beginning in 1912, established that volatile emissions from Kīlauea Volcano contained mostly water vapor, in addition to carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. This straightforward discovery overturned a popular volatile theory of the day and, in the same action, helped affirm Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr.’s, vision of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) as a preeminent place to study volcanic processes. Decades later, the environmental movement produced a watershed of quantitative analytical tools that, after being tested at Kīlauea, became part of the regular monitoring effort at HVO. The resulting volatile emission and fumarole chemistry datasets are some of the most extensive on the planet. These data indicate that magma from the mantle enters the shallow magmatic system of Kīlauea sufficiently oversaturated in CO 2 to produce turbulent flow. Passive degassing at Kīlauea’s summit that occurred from 1983 through 2007 yielded CO 2 -depleted, but SO 2 - and H 2 O-rich, rift eruptive gases. Beginning with the 2008 summit eruption, magma reaching the East Rift Zone eruption site became depleted of much of its volatile content at the summit eruptive vent before transport to Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. The volatile emissions of Hawaiian volcanoes are halogen-poor, relative to those of other basaltic systems. Information gained regarding intrinsic gas solubilities at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, as well as the pressure-controlled nature of gas release, have provided useful tools for tracking eruptive activity. Regular CO 2 -emission-rate measurements at Kīlauea’s summit, together with surface-deformation and other data, detected an increase in deep magma supply more than a year before a corresponding surge in effusive activity. Correspondingly, HVO routinely uses SO 2 emissions to study shallow eruptive processes and effusion rates. HVO gas studies and Kīlauea’s long-running East Rift Zone eruption also demonstrate that volatile emissions can be a substantial volcanic hazard in Hawai‘i. From its humble beginning, trying to determine the chemical composition of volcanic gases over a century ago, HVO has evolved to routinely use real-time gas chemistry to track eruptive processes, as well as hazards.

Hawaii↗

Extending the habitat concept to the airspace

Habitat is one of the most familiar and fundamental concepts in the fields of ecology, animal behavior, and wildlife conservation and management. Humans interact with habitats through their senses and experiences and education to such a degree that their perceptions of habitat have become second nature. For this reason, it may be difficult at first to accept the airspace as habitat, an area that is invisible, untouchable, highly dynamic, and its occupants difficult to see. Nonetheless, the habitat concept, by definition and in practice, applies readily to the airspace. Some ecological and behavioral processes including habitat selection, foraging, and reproduction are operational in the airspace, while others, particularly those mediated by resource limitation such as territoriality, are likely uncommon if present at all. The behaviors of flying animals increasingly expose them to anthropogenic hazards as development of the airspace accelerates. This exacerbates the need to identify approaches for managing these human–wildlife conflicts in aerial habitats, especially where human safety or at-risk populations are concerned. The habitat concept has proven useful in shaping environmental law and policy to help mitigate these conflicts. It remains to be seen whether current law can bend to include a more expansive concept of habitat that includes the airspace.

Book chapter↗

Estimating the benefits of land imagery in environmental applications: a case study in nonpoint source pollution of groundwater

Moderate-resolution land imagery (MRLI) is crucial to a more complete assessment of the cumulative, landscape-level effect of agricultural land use and land cover on environmental quality. If this improved assessment yields a net social benefit, then that benefit reflects the value of information (VOI) from MRLI. Environmental quality and the capacity to provide ecosystem services evolve because of human actions, changing natural conditions, and their interaction with natural physical processes. The human actions, in turn, are constrained and redirected by many institutions and regulations such as agricultural, energy, and environmental policies. We present a general framework for bringing together sociologic, biologic, physical, hydrologic, and geologic processes at meaningful scales to interpret environmental implications of MRLI applications. We set out a specific application using MRLI observations to identify crop planting patterns and thus estimate surface management activities that influence groundwater resources over a regional landscape. We tailor the application to the characteristics of nonpoint source groundwater pollution hazards in Iowa to illustrate a general framework in a land use-hydrologic-economic system. In the example, MRLI VOI derives from reducing the risk of both losses to agricultural production and damage to human health and other consequences of contaminated groundwater.

Book chapter↗

Landslides triggered by the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake

The 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake triggered several thousand landslides. These were mainly rock falls and debris falls, although translational rock and debris slides also occurred. In addition, a sturzstrom (debris avalanche) comprising ??? 80??million m3 buried four villages and blocked streams to create two lakes. Although landsliding occurred throughout the region, covering an area of > 7500??km2, the failures were highly concentrated, associated with six geomorphic-geologic-anthropogenic settings, including natural failures in (1) highly fractured carbonate rocks comprising the lowest beds in the hanging wall of the likely earthquake fault; (2) Tertiary siliciclastic rocks along antecedent drainages that traverse the Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis; (3) steep (> 50??) slopes comprising Precambrian and Lower Paleozoic rocks; (4) very steep (?? 50??) lower slopes of fluvially undercut Quaternary valley fills; and (5) ridges and spur crests. The sixth setting was associated with road construction. Extensive fissuring in many of the valley slopes together with the freshly mobilized landslide debris constitutes a potential hazard in the coming snowmelt and monsoon seasons. This study supports the view that earthquake-triggered landslides are highly concentrated in specific zones associated with the lithology, structure, geomorphology, topography, and human presence. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗

Quality of stormwater runoff from an urbanizing watershed and a rangeland watershed in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone, Bexar and Uvalde counties, Texas, 1996-98

Encroachment of urban development on the outcrop of the Edwards aquifer (the recharge zone), particularly in Bexar County, has raised the issue of possible contamination of water that enters the aquifer. Increasing residential and commercial development on the recharge zone increases the potential for runoff containing toxic substances, oil spills, or leakage of hazardous materials to contaminate the regional drinking water supply. The Edwards aquifer is a dipping sequence of extensively faulted, fractured, and dissolutioned limestone and dolostone that yields large quantities of water to wells and springs. The recharge zone is essentially coincident with the area in which the aquifer crops out. Recharge to the aquifer is derived mainly from seepage from streams crossing the recharge zone and by direct infiltration of precipitation on the outcrop. In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority and the Nature Conservancy of Texas, began a study to compare stormwater runoff from two sites in the recharge zone in watersheds of similar size and different land use. One site is located on Lorence Creek, a tributary to Salado Creek in northern Bexar County, and the other site is on an unnamed tributary of the Frio River in northern Uvalde County (fig. 1). Flow at the two sites results only from storm runoff. Both watersheds have similar climate, topography, soils, and vegetation. Land use in the Lorence Creek watershed is primarily single-family residential, commercial, and transportation. Land use in the watershed of the Frio River tributary is primarily rangeland. The drainage area of each watershed is less than 2 square miles.

Texas↗

Hazard assessment of a simulated oil spill on intertidal areas of the St. Lawrence River with SPMD-TOX

Phytoremediation in a simulated crude oil spill was studied with a “minimalistic” approach. The SPMD-TOX paradigm—a miniature passive sorptive device to collect and concentrate chemicals and microscale tests to detect toxicity—was used to monitor over time the bioavailability and potential toxicity of an oil spill. A simulated crude oil spill was initiated on an intertidal freshwater grass-wetland along the St. Lawrence River southwest of Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. Several phytoremediation treatments were investigated; to dissipate and ameliorate the spill, treatments included nutrient amendments with inorganic nitrogen sources (ammonium nitrate and sodium nitrate) and phosphate (super triple phosphate) with and without cut plants, with natural attenuation (no phytoremedial treatment) as a control. Sequestered oil residues were bioavailable in all oil-treated plots in Weeks 1 and 2. Interestingly, the samples were colored and fluoresced under ultraviolet light. In addition, microscale tests showed that sequestered residues were acutely toxic and genotoxic, as well as that they induced hepatic P 450 enzymes. Analysis of these data suggested that polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were among the bioavailable residues sequestered. In addition, these findings suggested that the toxic bioavailable fractions of the oil spill and degradation products dissipated rapidly over time because after the second week the water column contained no oil or detectable degradation products in this riverine intertidal wetland. SPMD-TOX revealed no evidence of bioavailable oil products in Weeks 4, 6, 8, and 12. All phytoremediation efforts appeared to be ineffective in changing either the dissipation rate or the ability to ameliorate the oil toxicity. SPMD-TOX analysis of the water columns from these riverine experimental plots profiled the occurrence, dissipation, and influence of phytoremediation on the bioavailability and toxicity of oil products (parent or degradation products).

Environmental Toxicology↗

The formation and failure of natural dams

Of the numerous kinds of dams that form by natural processes, dams formed from landslides, glacial ice, and late-neoglacial moraines present the greatest threat to people and property. Landslide dams form in a wide range of physiographic settings. The most common types of mass movements that form landslide dams are rock and debris avalanches; rock and soil slumps and slides; and mud, debris, and earth flows. The most common initiation mechanisms for dam-forming landslides are excessive rainfall and snowmelt and earthquakes. Landslide dams can be classified into six categories based on their relation with the valley floor. Type I dams (11% of 184 landslide dams from around the world that we were able to classify) do not reach from one valley side to the other. Type II dams (44%) span the entire valley floor, in some cases depositing material high on opposite valley sides. Type III dams (41%) move considerable distances both upstream and downstream from the landslide failure. Type IV dams (<1%) are rare and involve the contemporaneous failure of material from both sides of a valley. Type V dams (<1%) also are rare and are created when a single landslide sends multiple tongues of debris into a valley and forms two or more landslide dams in the same reach of river. Type VI dams (3%) involve one or more failure surfaces that extend under the stream or valley and emerge on the opposite valley side. Many landslide dams fail shortly after formation. In our sample of 73 documented landslide-dam failures, 27% of the landslide dams failed less than 1 day after formation, and about 50% failed within 10 days. Over-topping is by far the most common cause of failure. The timing of failure and the magnitude of the resulting floods are controlled by dam size and geometry; material characteristics of the blockage; rate of inflow to the impoundment; size and depth of the impoundment; bedrock control of flow; and engineering controls such as artificial spill-ways, diversions, tunnels, and planned breaching by blasting or conventional excavation. Glacial-ice dams can produce at least nine kinds of ice-dammed lakes. The most dangerous are lakes formed in main valleys dammed by tributary glaciers. Failure can occur by erosion of a drainage tunnel under or through the ice dam or by a channel over the ice dam. Cold polar-ice dams generally drain supraglacially or marginally by downmelting of an outlet channel. Warmer, temperate-ice dams tend to fail by sudden englacial or subglacial breaching and drainage. Late-neoglacial moraine-dammed lakes are located in steep mountain areas affected by the advances and retreats of valley glaciers in the last several centuries. These late-neoglacial dams pose hazards because (1) they are sufficiently young that vegetation has not stabilized their slopes, (2) many dam faces are steeper than the angle of repose, (3) these dams and lakes are immediately downslope from steep crevassed glaciers and near-vertical rock slopes, and (4) downstream from these dams are steep canyons with easily erodible materials that can be incorporated in the flow and increase flood peaks. The most common reported failure mechanism is overtopping and breaching by a wave or series of waves in the lake generated by icefalls, rockfalls, or snow or rock avalanches. Melting of ice cores or frozen ground and piping and seepage are other possible failure mechanisms. Natural dams may cause upstream flooding as the lake rises and downstream flooding as a result of failure of the dam. Although data are few, for the same potential energy at the dam site, ownstream flood peaks from the failure of glacier-ice dams are smaller than those from landslide, moraine, and structed earth-fill and rock-fill dam failures. Moraine-dam failures appear to produce some of the largest downstream flood peaks for potential energy at the dam site greater than 10 11 -10 12 joules. Differences in flood peaks natural-dam failures appear to be controlled by dam characteristics and failure mechanisms.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines

Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.

Nature--Scientific Reports↗