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Abstracts for the symposium on the application of neural networks to the earth sciences

Artificial neural networks are a group of mathematical methods that attempt to mimic some of the processes in the human mind. Although the foundations for these ideas were laid as early as 1943 (McCulloch and Pitts, 1943), it wasn't until 1986 (Rumelhart and McClelland, 1986; Masters, 1995) that applications to practical problems became possible. It is the acknowledged superiority of the human mind at recognizing patterns that the artificial neural networks are trying to imitate with their interconnected neurons. Interconnections used in the methods that have been developed allow robust learning. Capabilities of neural networks fall into three kinds of applications: (1) function fitting or prediction, (2) noise reduction or pattern recognition, and (3) classification or placing into types. Because of these capabilities and the powerful abilities of artificial neural networks, there have been increasing applications of these methods in the earth sciences. The abstracts in this document represent excellent samples of the range of applications. Talks associated with the abstracts were presented at the Symposium on the Application of Neural Networks to the Earth Sciences: Seventh International Symposium on Mineral Exploration (ISME–02), held August 20–21, 2002, at NASA Moffett Field, Mountain View, California. This symposium was sponsored by the Mining and Materials Processing Institute of Japan (MMIJ), the U.S. Geological Survey, the Circum-Pacific Council, and NASA. The ISME symposia have been held every two years in order to bring together scientists actively working on diverse quantitative methods applied to the earth sciences. Although the title, International Symposium on Mineral Exploration, suggests exclusive focus on mineral exploration, interests and presentations have always been wide-ranging—abstracts presented here are no exception.

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Brookian stratigraphic plays in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPRA)

The Brookian megasequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) includes bottomset and clinoform seismic facies of the Torok Formation (mostly Albian age) and generally coeval, topset seismic facies of the uppermost Torok Formation and the Nanushuk Group. These strata are part of a composite total petroleum system involving hydrocarbons expelled from three stratigraphic intervals of source rocks, the Lower Cretaceous gamma-ray zone (GRZ), the Lower Jurassic Kingak Shale, and the Triassic Shublik Formation. The potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Brookian megasequence in NPRA was assessed by defining five plays (assessment units), one in the topset seismic facies and four in the bottomset-clinoform seismic facies. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 60 (95-percent probability) and 465 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 239 million barrels. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 679 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 192 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform North Play, which extends across northern NPRA, is estimated to contain between 538 (95-percent probability) and 2,257 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 1,306 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform North Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,969 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 674 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play, which extends across central NPRA, is estimated to contain between 299 (95-percent probability) and 1,849 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 973 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play is estimated to contain between 1,806 (95-percent probability) and 10,076 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 5,405 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform South-Shallow Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,254 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 508 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform South-Shallow Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 5,809 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 2,405 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform South-Deep Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 8,796 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 3,788 billion cubic feet. No technically recoverable oil is assessed in the Brookian Clinoform South-Deep Play, as it lies at depths that are entirely in the gas window. Among the Brookian stratigraphic plays in NPRA, the Brookian Clinoform North Play and the Brookian Clinoform Central Play are most likely to be objectives of exploration activity in the near-term future because they are estimated to contain multiple oil accumulations larger than 128 million barrels technically recoverable oil, and because some of those accumulations may occur near existing infrastructure in the eastern parts of the plays. The other Brookian stratigraphic plays are not likely to be the focus of exploration activity because they are estimated to contain maximum accumulation sizes that are smaller, but they may be an objective of satellite exploration if infrastructure is extended into the play areas. The total volumes of natural gas estimated to occur in B

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Sediment-hosted copper deposits of the world: Deposit models and database

Introduction This publication contains four descriptive models and four grade-tonnage models for sediment hosted copper deposits. Descriptive models are useful in exploration planning and resource assessment because they enable the user to identify deposits in the field and to identify areas on geologic and geophysical maps where deposits could occur. Grade and tonnage models are used in resource assessment to predict the likelihood of different combinations of grades and tonnages that could occur in undiscovered deposits in a specific area. They are also useful in exploration in deciding what deposit types meet the economic objectives of the exploration company. The models in this report supersede the sediment-hosted copper models in USGS Bulletin 1693 (Cox, 1986, and Mosier and others, 1986) and are subdivided into a general type and three subtypes. The general model is useful in classifying deposits whose features are obscured by metamorphism or are otherwise poorly described, and for assessing regions in which the geologic environments are poorly understood. The three subtypes are based on differences in deposit form and environments of deposition. These differences are described under subtypes in the general model. Deposit models are based on the descriptions of geologic environments and physical characteristics, and on metal grades and tonnages of many individual deposits. Data used in this study are presented in a database representing 785 deposits in nine continents. This database was derived partly from data published by Kirkham and others (1994) and from new information in recent publications. To facilitate the construction of grade and tonnage models, the information, presented by Kirkham in disaggregated form, was brought together to provide a single grade and a single tonnage for each deposit. Throughout the report individual deposits are defined as being more than 2,000 meters from the nearest adjacent deposit. The deposit models are presented here as a PDF file. The database can be most conveniently read in FileMaker Pro. For those who do not have the FileMaker application, Microsoft-Excel, tab-delimited-ASCII and comma-separated-value files are included. The reader may be interested in a similar publication on porphyry copper deposits (Singer and others, 2005) also available online. The Google Earth image is not intended to be viewed at the highest possible magnification because the resolution of the database is plus or minus two kilometers. At extreme zoom settings, the deposit locations may not coincide with the Google-Earth images of the mine workings.

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Porphyry copper deposits of the world: database, map, and grade and tonnage models

Mineral deposit models are important in exploration planning and quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages among deposit types are significantly different, and (2) many types occur in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral occurrences, geophysics, and geochemistry used in resource assessments and mineral exploration. Too few thoroughly explored mineral deposits are available in most local areas for reliable identification of the important geoscience variables or for robust estimation of undiscovered deposits-thus we need mineral-deposit models. Globally based deposit models allow recognition of important features because the global models demonstrate how common different features are. Well-designed and -constructed deposit models allow geologists to know from observed geologic environments the possible mineral deposit types that might exist, and allow economists to determine the possible economic viability of these resources in the region. Thus, mineral deposit models play the central role in transforming geoscience information to a form useful to policy makers. The foundation of mineral deposit models is information about known deposits-the purpose of this publication is to make this kind of information available in digital form for porphyry copper deposits. This report is an update of an earlier publication about porphyry copper deposits. In this report we have added 84 new porphyry copper deposits and removed 12 deposits. In addition, some errors have been corrected and a number of deposits have had some information, such as grades, tonnages, locations, or ages revised. This publication contains a computer file of information on porphyry copper deposits from around the world. It also presents new grade and tonnage models for porphyry copper deposits and for three subtypes of porphyry copper deposits and a map showing the location of all deposits. The value of this information and any derived analyses depends critically on the consistent manner of data gathering. For this reason, we first discuss the rules used in this compilation. Next, the fields of the data file are considered. Finally, we provide new grade and tonnage models.

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Major- and trace-element concentrations in rock samples collected in 2004 from the Taylor Mountains 1:250,000-scale quadrangle, Alaska

The Kuskokwim mineral belt of Bundtzen and Miller (1997) forms an important metallogenic region in southwestern Alaska that has yielded more than 3.22 million ounces of gold and 400,000 ounces of silver. Precious-metal and related deposits in this region associated with Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary igneous complexes extend into the Taylor Mountains 1:250,000-scale quadrangle. The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting geologic mapping and a mineral resource assessment of this area that will provide a better understanding of the geologic framework, regional geochemistry, and may provide targets for mineral exploration and development. During the 2004 field season 137 rock samples were collected for a variety of purposes. The 4 digital files accompanying this report reflect the type of analysis performed and its intended purpose and are available for download as an Excel workbook, comma delimited format (*.csv), dBase 4 files (*.dbf) or as point coverages in ArcInfo interchange format (*.e00). Data values are provided in percent, pct (1gram per 100grams), or parts per million, ppm (1gram per 1,000,000grams) per the column heading in the table. All samples were analyzed for a suite of 42 trace-elements (icp42.*) to provide data for use in geochemical exploration as well as some baseline data. Selected samples were analyzed by additional methods; 104 targeted geochemical exploration samples were analyzed for gold, arsenic, and mercury (auashg.*); 21 of these samples were also analyzed to obtain concentrations of 10 loosely bound metals (icp10.*); 33 rock samples were analyzed for major element oxides to support the regional mapping program (reg.*), of which 28 sedimentary rock samples were also analyzed for total carbon, and carbonate carbon.

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Geochemistry of Selected Coal Samples from Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua, Indonesia

Introduction Indonesia is an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands that stretches astride the equator for about 5,200 km in southeast Asia (figure 1) and includes major Cenozoic volcano-plutonic arcs, active volcanoes, and various related onshore and offshore basins. These magmatic arcs have extensive Cu and Au mineralization that has generated much exploration and mining in the last 50 years. Although Au and Ag have been mined in Indonesia for over 1000 years (van Leeuwen, 1994), it was not until the middle of the nineteenth century that the Dutch explored and developed major Sn and minor Au, Ag, Ni, bauxite, and coal resources. The metallogeny of Indonesia includes Au-rich porphyry Cu, porphyry Mo, skarn Cu-Au, sedimentary-rock hosted Au, epithermal Au, laterite Ni, and diamond deposits. For example, the Grasberg deposit in Papua has the world's largest gold reserves and the third-largest copper reserves (Sillitoe, 1994). Coal mining in Indonesia also has had a long history beginning with the initial production in 1849 in the Mahakam coal field near Pengaron, East Kalimantan; in 1891 in the Ombilin area, Sumatra, (van Leeuwen, 1994); and in South Sumatra in 1919 at the Bukit Asam mine (Soehandojo, 1989). Total production from deposits in Sumatra and Kalimantan, from the 19thth century to World War II, amounted to 40 million metric tons (Mt). After World War II, production declined due to various factors including politics and a boom in the world-wide oil economy. Active exploration and increased mining began again in the 1980's mainly through a change in Indonesian government policy of collaboration with foreign companies and the global oil crises (Prijono, 1989). This recent coal revival (van Leeuwen, 1994) has lead Indonesia to become the largest exporter of thermal (steam) coal and the second largest combined thermal and metallurgical (coking) coal exporter in the world market (Fairhead and others, 2006). The exported coal is desirable as it is low sulfur and ash (generally <1 and < 10 wt.%, respectively). Coal mining for both local use and for export has a very strong future in Indonesia although, at present, there are concerns about the strong need for a major revision in mining laws and foreign investment policies (Wahju, 2004; United States Embassy Jakarta, 2004). The World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI) program of the U.S. Geological Survey (Tewalt and others, 2005) is a cooperative project with about 50 countries (out of 70 coal-producing countries world-wide). The WoCQI initiative has collected and published extensive coal quality data from the world's largest coal producers and consumers. The important aspects of the WoCQI program are; (1) samples from active mines are collected, (2) the data have a high degree of internal consistency with a broad array of coal quality parameters, and (3) the data are linked to GIS and available through the world-wide-web. The coal quality parameters include proximate and ultimate analysis, sulfur forms, major-, minor-, and trace-element concentrations and various technological tests. This report contains geochemical data from a selected group of Indonesian coal samples from a range of coal types, localities, and ages collected for the WoCQI program.

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Geochemical data for samples collected in 2007 near the concealed pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit, southwest Alaska

In the summer of 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began an exploration geochemical research study over the Pebble porphyry copper-gold-molydenum (Cu-Au-Mo) deposit in southwest Alaska. The Pebble deposit is extremely large and is almost entirely concealed by tundra, glacial deposits, and post-Cretaceous volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks. The deposit is presently being explored by Northern Dynasty Minerals, Ltd., and Anglo-American LLC. The USGS undertakes unbiased, broad-scale mineral resource assessments of government lands to provide Congress and citizens with information on national mineral endowment. Research on known deposits is also done to refine and better constrain methods and deposit models for the mineral resource assessments. The Pebble deposit was chosen for this study because it is concealed by surficial cover rocks, it is relatively undisturbed (except for exploration company drill holes), it is a large mineral system, and it is fairly well constrained at depth by the drill hole geology and geochemistry. The goals of the USGS study are (1) to determine whether the concealed deposit can be detected with surface samples, (2) to better understand the processes of metal migration from the deposit to the surface, and (3) to test and develop methods for assessing mineral resources in similar concealed terrains. This report presents analytical results for geochemical samples collected in 2007 from the Pebble deposit and surrounding environs. The analytical data are presented digitally both as an integrated Microsoft 2003 Access? database and as Microsoft 2003 Excel? files. The Pebble deposit is located in southwestern Alaska on state lands about 30 km (18 mi) northwest of the village of Illiamna and 320 km (200 mi) southwest of Anchorage (fig. 1). Elevations in the Pebble area range from 287 m (940 ft) at Frying Pan Lake just south of the deposit to 1146 m (3760 ft) on Kaskanak Mountain about 5 km (5 mi) to the west. The deposit is in an area of relatively subdued topographic relief with an elevation of around 300 m (1000 ft). This portion of Alaska is part of the subarctic regime mountains division, Yukon intermontane plateaus-tayga-meadow province ecoregion, as defined by Bailey (U.S. Forest Service, 2007). Between June 28th and July 12th, 2007, scientists from the USGS collected soil, water, stream sediment, vegetation, heavy-mineral concentrate, till, and rock samples from the deposit area. This report contains analytical results for soil, water, stream sediment, and vegetation samples. Analyses for the heavy-mineral concentrate, till, and rock samples are still in progress. The sampling was undertaken during relatively dry and stable weather conditions. Only minor scattered rain showers occurred during the sampling period, so surface conditions were largely unaffected by weather. The predominant sample media collected were soils and surface waters. Soil and water (mostly from ponds and springs, some from small creeks) samples were collected along a single 7.8 km-long (4.8 mi) east-west traverse across the Pebble East and Pebble West zones and from more distal background areas around Koktuli and Kaskanak Mountains. Sample sites are shown on figure 2 and plate 1, and locality coordinates are provided in the accompanying Access and Excel files named FieldSite. Water samples were analyzed by USGS laboratories with one subset analyzed by Activation Laboratories (Actlabs), as indicated below. Soils and stream sediments were analyzed for their total content by SGS Minerals Services under a contract with the USGS. Soil samples were also leached by selected partial-extraction leaching procedures and then analyzed by several commercial laboratories, as described below. Vegetation samples were analyzed as indicated below.

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Porphyry copper deposits of the world: Database and grade and tonnage models, 2008

This report is an update of earlier publications about porphyry copper deposits (Singer, Berger, and Moring, 2002; Singer, D.A., Berger, V.I., and Moring, B.C., 2005). The update was necessary because of new information about substantial increases in resources in some deposits and because we revised locations of some deposits so that they are consistent with images in GoogleEarth. In this report we have added new porphyry copper deposits and removed a few incorrectly classed deposits. In addition, some errors have been corrected and a number of deposits have had some information, such as grades, tonnages, locations, or ages revised. Colleagues have helped identify places where improvements were needed. Mineral deposit models are important in exploration planning and quantitative resource assessments for a number of reasons including: (1) grades and tonnages among deposit types are significantly different, and (2) many types occur in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral occurrences, geophysics, and geochemistry used in resource assessments and mineral exploration. Too few thoroughly explored mineral deposits are available in most local areas for reliable identification of the important geoscience variables or for robust estimation of undiscovered deposits?thus we need mineral-deposit models. Globally based deposit models allow recognition of important features because the global models demonstrate how common different features are. Well-designed and -constructed deposit models allow geologists to know from observed geologic environments the possible mineral deposit types that might exist, and allow economists to determine the possible economic viability of these resources in the region. Thus, mineral deposit models play the central role in transforming geoscience information to a form useful to policy makers. The foundation of mineral deposit models is information about known deposits. The purpose of this publication is to make this kind of information available in digital form for porphyry copper deposits. The consistently defined deposits in this file provide the foundation for grade and tonnage models included here and for mineral deposit density models (Singer and others, 2005: Singer, 2008).

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Location of the Green Canyon (Offshore Southern Louisiana) Seismic Event of February 10, 2006

We calculated an epicenter for the Offshore Southern Louisiana seismic event of February 10, 2006 (the 'Green Canyon event') that was adopted as the preferred epicenter for the event by the USGS/NEIC. The event is held at a focal depth of 5 km; the focal depth could not be reliably calculated but was most likely between 1 km and 15 km beneath sea level. The epicenter was calculated with a radially symmetric global Earth model similar to that routinely used at the USGS/NEIC for all earthquakes worldwide. The location was calculated using P-waves recorded by seismographic stations from which the USGS/NEIC routinely obtains seismological data, plus data from two seismic exploration arrays, the Atlantis ocean-bottom node array, operated by BP in partnership with BHP Billiton Limited, and the CGG Green Canyon phase VIII multi-client towed-streamer survey. The preferred epicenter is approximately 26 km north of an epicenter earlier published by the USGS/NEIC, which was obtained without benefit of the seismic exploration arrays. We estimate that the preferred epicenter is accurate to within 15 km. We selected the preferred epicenter from a suite of trial calculations that attempted to fit arrival times of seismic energy associated with the Green Canyon event and that explored the effect of errors in the velocity model used to calculate the preferred epicenter. The various trials were helpful in confirming the approximate correctness of the preferred epicenter and in assessing the accuracy of the preferred epicenter, but none of the trial calculations, including that of the preferred epicenter, was able to reconcile arrival-time observations and assumed velocity model as well as is typical for the vast majority of earthquakes in and near the continental United States. We believe that remaining misfits between the preferred solution and the observations reflect errors in interpreted arrival times of emergent seismic phases that are due partly to a temporally extended source-time function and partly to failure of our travel-time model to account for the extremely complicated velocity structure of the sedimentary section in which the event occurred.

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Sediment-hosted zinc-lead deposits of the world— Database and grade and tonnage models

This report provides information on sediment-hosted zinc-lead mineral deposits based on the geologic settings that are observed on regional geologic maps. The foundation of mineral-deposit models is information about known deposits. The purpose of this publication is to make this kind of information available in digital form for sediment-hosted zinc-lead deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in exploration planning and quantitative resource assessments: Grades and tonnages among deposit types are significantly different, and many types occur in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral occurrences, geophysics, and geochemistry used in resource assessments and mineral exploration. Too few thoroughly explored mineral deposits are available in most local areas for reliable identification of the important geoscience variables, or for robust estimation of undiscovered deposits - thus, we need mineral-deposit models. Globally based deposit models allow recognition of important features because the global models demonstrate how common different features are. Well-designed and -constructed deposit models allow geologists to know from observed geologic environments the possible mineral-deposit types that might exist, and allow economists to determine the possible economic viability of these resources in the region. Thus, mineral-deposit models play the central role in transforming geoscience information to a form useful to policy makers. This publication contains a computer file of information on sediment-hosted zinc-lead deposits from around the world. It also presents new grade and tonnage models for nine types of these deposits and a file allowing locations of all deposits to be plotted in Google Earth. The data are presented in FileMaker Pro, Excel and text files to make the information available to as many as possible. The value of this information and any derived analyses depends critically on the consistent manner of data gathering. For this reason, we first discuss the rules applied in this compilation. Next, the fields of the data file are considered. Finally, we provide new grade and tonnage models that are, for the most part, based on a classification of deposits using observable geologic units from regional-scaled maps.

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The Ecology of Parasite-Host Interactions at Montezuma Well National Monument, Arizona - Appreciating the Importance of Parasites

Although parasites play important ecological roles through the direct interactions they have with their hosts, historically that fact has been underappreciated. Today, scientists have a growing appreciation of the scope of such impacts. Parasites have been reported to dominate food webs, alter predator-prey relationships, act as ecosystem engineers, and alter community structure. In spite of this growing awareness in the scientific community, parasites are still often neglected in the consideration of the management and conservation of resources and ecosystems. Given that at least half of the organisms on earth are probably parasitic, it should be evident that the ecological functions of parasites warrant greater attention. In this report, we explore different aspects of parasite-host relationships found at a desert spring pond within Montezuma Well National Monument, Arizona. In three separate but related chapters, we explore interactions between a novel amphipod host and two parasites. First, we identify how host behavior responds to this association and how this association affects interactions with both invertebrate non-host predators and a vertebrate host predator. Second, we look at the human dimension, investigating how human recreation can indirectly affect patterns of disease by altering patterns of vertebrate host space use. Finally - because parasites and diseases are of increasing importance in the management of wildlife species, especially those that are imperiled or of management concern - the third chapter argues that research would benefit from increased attention to the statistical analysis of wildlife disease studies. This report also explores issues of statistical parasitology, providing information that may better inform those designing research projects and analyzing data from studies of wildlife disease. In investigating the nature of parasite-host interactions, the role that relationships play in ecological communities, and how human activities alter these associations, scientists usually make inferences by methods of statistical hypotheses testing. This type of hypothesis testing places additional importance on the analysis and interpretation of parasite-host interactions. We address these ideas in this report, focusing on the following questions: (1) How do two parasites with complex life cycles alter the behavior of a novel amphipod host, and how do host and non-host predators respond to infected amphipod prey? (2) Does human recreation affect spatial patterns of infection in an otherwise natural ecosystem? (3) How is hypothesis-testing applied in studies of wildlife disease? (4) What conclusions can we make about the relative usefulness of these methodologies? and (5) How can the analysis and interpretation of wildlife disease studies be improved? Each chapter of this report contains its own literature-cited section, with tables included in appendixes at the end of the full report.

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Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than would cause damage to a building. Along the West Coast of the United States, the warning times for ground shaking could range as high as tens of seconds for moderate levels of ground shaking, or potentially longer, if a lower ground-shaking threshold is used to issue alerts. However, it is not always possible to provide advance warning of ground shaking, particularly for locations close to an earthquake that are most likely to experience very strong ground shaking. EEW alerts may be useful to individuals who can use a few seconds to move to a safe zone and to electromechanical systems that can take automatic actions to reduce damage and injuries. An EEW system, ShakeAlert, has been under development in the United States since 2006. Federal and State governments, as well as the private sector, are now investing in the ShakeAlert prototype system that will, when completed, become an operational public system for the West Coast of the United States. While the current prototype is delivering alerts to test users, improvements to the accuracy, timeliness, and utility of the alerts are needed. For this reason, it is essential that the ShakeAlert system be continuously improved through targeted research, involving not only the current ShakeAlert partner organizations, but also the broader scientific, engineering, and emergencyresponse communities. To this end, this report describes the opportunities for improvement that can be addressed through research and development over the next 5 years. Our recommendations are organized into four areas: (1) understand EEW capabilities and user needs, (2) make alerts as fast and accurate as possible, (3) ensure reliability when it counts, and (4) explore the use of new instrumentation. The first challenge is to understand EEW capabilities and user needs. EEW must deliver actionable information to people and to automated systems to mitigate short- and longterm impacts of damaging ground shaking, so development of EEW must be motivated by the needs of users. Within this challenge, we must study the technical capabilities and limitations of EEW in general, and the ShakeAlert system specifically. This includes development of performance metrics that assess the timeliness and accuracy of alerts to understand the value and utility of the ShakeAlert EEW product(s) for various user groups, including different industry sectors, emergency-management agencies, and the public. Research is needed to define the alerting choices that maximize the utility of the system for users and to determine what the available communication pathways are for providing timely alert information. Additionally, we engage users to assess how alerts will be used by different sectors to mitigate losses and to inform EEW product design. Further, social-science research is needed to develop alert messaging, including what relevant prior and follow-up information are required, to ensure effective use of alerts. The second challenge is to make alerts as fast and as accurate as possible. The timeliness and accuracy of an EEW alert is important because it will set in motion a series of actions and downstream products. An EEW alert will trigger notification across emergency-alert systems and across multiple communication channels to populations in impacted regions. The EEW alert region may grow as the earthquake fault-rupture length increases, and the EEW system’s characterization of it, evolves. We must continue research into new or improved seismic and geodetic waveform-processing methods necessary to rapidly characterize the expected ground shaking and associated uncertainties. It is important to thoroughly evaluate whether new methods improve alerts through more accurate ground-motion estimates and (or) reduced latencies (that is, longer warning times). New methods could include tracking the extent of a large rupture in real time (known as finite-fault algorithms) and ground-motionbased EEW algorithms. Additionally, ground motion predictions could be optimized for each earthquake as the earthquake fault rupture progresses by using, for example, event terms to shift ground-motion curves for more (or less) energetic ruptures. The third challenge is to ensure reliability when it counts. This challenge requires us to explore approaches that assess the expected performance of ShakeAlert across the range of earthquake magnitudes, locations, and depths that may occur within the alerting region. Large, damaging earthquakes and their associated aftershock sequences matter most for hazard and for EEW, but these large-earthquake sequences occur infrequently. We expect ShakeAlert to respond robustly to these large-earthquake sequences despite potentially long periods of relative seismic quiescence in the intervening years, and in spite of inevitable communication challenges that arise during and after a large earthquake. We must develop methods to utilize the broadest available datasets to test EEW performance, including ground-motion data recorded in other parts of the world. The observational period for large, damaging earthquakes in any particular region has been short in comparison to estimated large-earthquake recurrence times. Ground-motion records for very large, damaging western United States events and major aftershock sequences do not yet exist, nor do data exist for all potential sources of noise and spurious signals that ShakeAlert must be “tuned” to reject. In addition, robust synthetic data could provide the flexibility to test a wider range of earthquake magnitude, tectonic-setting, and noise scenarios than are covered by existing observational data. Synthetic ground-motion data must be thoroughly vetted against records of smaller magnitude earthquakes to ensure that they accurately capture both the onset and the amplitude of the ground shaking. The final challenge is to explore the use of new instrumentation. The development of EEW around the world to date has focused on the use of high-quality, scientific-grade seismic and geodetic instrumentation. The use of additional types of instrumentation or information may also improve EEW products by filling gaps in sensor coverage in countries that already have dense seismic networks or enable EEW in countries without such networks. We must keep up with these developments and continuously assess their value in supplementing existing EEW systems, such as ShakeAlert, or enabling EEW where such systems do not exist. Such developments include low-cost instrumentation with microelectromechanical system (MEMS) sensors and global positioning system (GPS)/global navigation satellite system (GNSS) antennas embedded in low-cost consumer electronics, sea-floor seismometers, geodetic instrumentation deployed along the Cascadia and Alaska megathrust margins of western North America, and borehole strainmeters that are already deployed across the region.

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Cobalt-copper deposits of the Blackbird district, Lemhi County, Idaho

The Blackbird district is in east-central Idaho, about 20 miles west-southwest of Salmon. The area is one of deeply weathered, flat-topped upland surfaces cut by several steep-walled valleys, which are tributary to the canyon of Panther Creek. Most of the area has a heavy vegetative cover and outcrops are relatively scarce except in the walls of the steeper valleys. The rocks of the district consist mostly of metamorphosed sedimentary rocks of the pre-Cambrian Yellowjacket formation (Belt series); a part of the Cretaceous Idaho batholith cuts across the northern part of the district, and acid porphyry dikes and metamorphosed basic rocks cut the Yellowjacket rocks. Structurally, the sedimentary rocks are divided by faults into three, roughly north-south blocks. The center one (Blackbird structural block) appears to have been more tightly squeezed than the others into relatively tight folds, with the development of widespread schistosity (flow cleavage). The rocks of the two outside blocks are in more open folds. In general they are nonschistose, except for the north end of the western block, where there are schistose rocks cut by several north-dipping thrust faults. The northern parts of the central and western blocks contain considerable garnet, chloritoid, and cordierite. The Blackbird structural block is cut by a number of mineralized shear zones. Those dipping moderately northeast and striking northwest, and those dipping steeply and striking north and northeast; appear to be most important. The mineralized rock contains chalcopyrite, cobaltite, pyrite, and pyrrhotite into a gangue of quartz, biotite, tourmaline, ankerite, and muscovite; the deposits were formed mostly by replacement of the shear zones. In addition, the block is cut by north-dipping thrust faults of west to northwest strike, and a number of high-angle faults. The district was first prospected about 1893; considerable developmont was done at the Brown Bear mine in 1899-1902, at the Haynes-Stellite in l917-1920, and at the Uncle Sam mine in 1938-1941, During World War II, the U.S. Bureau of Mines explored in the district with bulldozer and diamond drill., and the U.S. Geological Survey mapped the district and logged the drill cores. The Howe Sound Co. also did some diamond drilling in the district, and in 1945 the Calera Mining Co., Blackbird Division (subsidiary of Howe Sound Co.), started underground development at the Calera adit. Although the district has had very little production to the present, it is believed that a large tonnage of copper-cobalt ore exists in the district which should permit mining to be continued over a long period. The report contains brief descriptions of all the accessible workings in the district, of which the most important are Calera, Brown Bear, Uncle Sam, and Hawkeye mines. In the Calera adit, about 1,700 feet of the mineralized zone, ranging in width from 3 feet to 40 feet and averaging about 15 feet; have been explored (August 1946); the zone lies on a wide northwest-striking shear zone dipping moderately ( 60&deg; &plusmn;) northeast. The Brown Bear adit is in a wide, mineralized, north-south shear zone in which are higher-grade pods plunging 25&deg; to 35&deg; north. The Uncle Sam mine explores a relatively narrow north-south shear zone in which are two or three north-plunging ore shoots. The Hawkeye mine is in a broad zone of mineralized schist in which are several north-plunging lenses of ore.

Idaho↗

Petroleum possibilities of the Yukon-Koyukuk Province, Alaska

The recent discovery of major oil resources on Alaska's North Slope has rekindled interest in the petroleum possibilities of the Yukon-Koyukuk province, a vast tract of Cretaceous rocks stretching along the west coast of Alaska from the Brooks Range to the Yukon delta. Attention was first focused on this region in the early 1950's, after oil and gas were discovered in the Cretaceous of the North Slope by the U.S. Navy. The presence of similar Cretaceous strata in the Yukon-Koyukuk province and the possibility that some of the broad alluviated lowlands within the province might be underlain by Tertiary basins were pointed out by Gryc and others (1951) and Payne (1955). Between 1954 and 1961 large parts of the province were reconnoitered by oil company surface parties and a small amount of geophysical work was carried out in the Nulato-Kateel and Bethel areas. The explorational activity culminated in 1960-61 with the drilling of two deep tests, a 12,000-foot hole near Nulato on the Yukon River and a 15,000-foot hole at Napatuk Creek in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Coastal Lowland. Apparently neither test revealed oil shows or favorable reservoir rocks, as exploration and leasing activity in the province declined sharply thereafter. Since 1954 the U.S. Geological Survey has maintained a modest but continuing program of reconnaissance geologic mapping of the province and its borderlands. Nearly all parts of this vast area have been visited either by helicopter or river boat. Although information in many places is still sketchy, the broad outlines of the surface geology are now known. Subsurface data, however, are almost totally lacking. The mapping indicates that the petroleum possibilities over most of the province are limited because of complex structure and scarcity of promising reservoir rocks. Two areas where further exploration seems warranted are the Yukon-Kuskokwim Coastal Lowland and the western part of the Kobuk-Selawik Lowland.

Alaska↗

Chromite deposits of the north-central Zambales Range, Luzon, Philippines

Peridotite and gabbro form an intrusive complex which is exposed over an area about 35 km wide and 150 km long in the center of the Zambales Range of western Luzon. The Zambales Complex is remarkable for its total known resources, mined and still remaining, of about 15 million metric tons of chromite ore. Twenty percent of Free World production was obtained from this area between 1950 and the end of 1964; in 1960 production reached a high of 606,103 metric tons of refractory-grade ore, mostly from the Coto mine near Masinloc, and 128,426 metric tons of metallurgical ore from the Acoje mine. The United States imports 80 to 90 percent of its refractory-grade chromite from the Philippines, and its basic refractory technology has been designed upon the chemical and physical characteristics of Coto high-alumina chromite ore. Continuation of this pattern will depend upon discovery of additional ore reserves to replace those depleted by mining. The Zambales Ultramafic Complex is of the alpine type in which lenticular or podiform deposits of chromite lie in peridotite or dunite, mostly near Contacts with gabbroic rocks. Layered structures, foliation, and lineation commonly are well developed and transect boundaries between major rock units, including chromite deposits, at any angle. Accordingly, these structures cannot be used as guides in exploration and mining as they are used in stratiform complexes such as the Bushveld, where chromite layers extend for many miles. Probably 90 percent of the known deposits in the Zambales Complex are located in two belts in its northern part. One zone containing high-aluminua refractory-grade deposits extends northeast from the Coto mine and Chromite Reservation No. I along a peridotite contact with olivine gabbro, and another of high-chromium metallurgical grade chromite extends south through the Zambales and Acoje properties, and swings westward around the south side of Mount Lanai along a peridotite contact with norite. The textures of ores, association of chromite with dunite as gangue and as halos, and the transecting nature of the layering, foliation, and lineation in relation to chromite, are similar in all deposits regardless of composition of the chromite mineral itself. Textures in chromite ores, and structural relationships between chromite deposits and country rocks, show that layering and related foliation and lineation were formed or modified by flowage. Gabbro is believed to form the upper part of the Complex in general. Geophysical methods have been rather unsuccessful in finding chromite in the Zambales Complex. Gravity surveys, in order to be successful, must correct for all features influencing gravity except for the chromite itself. Too often the uncertainties in position of rock units and in knowledge of rock densities or position of hidden geologic features (dikes, zones of alteration) preclude the possibility of making adequate corrections. Magnetic surveys have failed to reveal any magnetic patterns attributable to the presence of chromite. Exploration for chromite should be guided by the knowledge that chromite occurs only in certain geologic environments. Thus because nearly all known chromite deposits in the Zambales Complex lie in peridotite near the gabbro contact, search for chromite should be concentrated there. Likewise it is evident from structural evidence presented here that there is little relation between layering and distribution of either major rock units or chromite deposits. Thus one is not justified in using the layered structure to predict either the position or attitude of major rock unit contacts, or presence or position of chromite deposits. In such a productive complex it is geologically certain that unknown deposits still remain undiscovered. The most promising areas for exploration are near known groups of large deposits like Acoje and Chromite Reservation No. 1. Underground drilling has been very successful in finding buried tabular

Open-File Report↗

Appraisal of iron deposits in southern and western Turkey

Between May 20 and June 17, 1969, previously known iron deposits were examined widely at eight separate localities in western Turkey. The object of the examinations was to learn the, nature, geologic setting, and approximate size of each deposit, to review prior estimates of size, and possibly recommend additional exploratory work.. The full extent of each deposit is poorly known at the present time, so recommended additional work entails drilling, digging trenches or pits, geologic mapping or, combinations of these activities. On Qaldagi Mountain an area of about 1 sq km is capped by bredciated chert under which may be a continuous zone of mixed iron oxides and chert fragments. The thickness of the ferruginous zone is poorly known but is as much as 12 meters, in at least one place. The- ferruginous material and chert appear to have formed by the weathering of serpentine, bun this concept needs further testing. Drilling is recommended to determine the grade, thickness, and extent-of the ferruginous zone beneath the cherty cap. Inasmuch as mining by hand sorting is in progress, part of the deposit can be considered to be marginally in the category of iron reserves. The Keceborlu iron deposit consists of earthy to slightly compacted hematite and limonite mixed with small chert fragments. The surface area underlain by ferruginous rock is about 5,000 to 7,500 sq meters. The maximum known thickness of the deposit is about 7 meters. Iron appears to have been concentrated by weathering and oxidation of cherty limestone. The deposit is probably either a remnant of a once more extensive weathered cap, or a sink hole filling. The Keceborlu area warrants a low priority for further exploration, but one drill hole is recommended to test the thickness of the deposit. The iron deposits at Mellec are layered and vein-magnetite replacements of limestone. The six known deposits are discontinuous. No additional. work is recommended. ' The Gilindire Iron deposit consists of irregular concentrations of pisolitic and earthy hematite and 'limonite along an unconformity or disconformity between two groups of limestone. The ferruginous zone is incompletely known around the rim of the large Gilindire syncline. Data from trenches 5 to 6 km around the syncline--about ? the possible length of the ferruginous zone--provide the main knowledge about the size and grade of ferruginous lenses. The ferruginous lenses range in thickness from a fraction of a meter, to about 3 meters, but appear to average 1 meter or less, and range in grade from about 10 to 37 percent iron. No additional exploration work is recommended at Gilindire. The Buyukeceli deposit consists of veinlike masses of earthy and compact hematite and limonite cutting fresh limestone. The veins apparently originally contained siderite which has been weathered and converted to iron oxide. Further exploration by drilling is recommended at such time as other largest deposits are able to be brought into the development stage in the Mediterranean coastal area of Turkey. The iron deposits overlooking Bayas on the Gulf of Iskenderun ere in one or more layers along the west-facing front of the Amanus Mountain Range, between beds of gently to moderately east-dipping limestone. Isolated exposures may represent a once-continuous ferruginous bed that has been blockfaulted and intruded by serpentine. The ferruginous bed (or beds) is 20-30 meters thick, and consists of a mixture of very fine grained hematite and claylike material. Iron content ranges from 20 to 40 percent and aluminum, averages about 15 percent. Available data on distribution are scant but suggest that one ferruginous bed may be 1-2 kilometers long, 500 meters wide and 20 meters thick. The potentially large size of the Payas deposits warrants an early coordinated program of drilling end beneficiation testing. An iron deposit was examined on a conspicuous limestone ridge in the Syrian graben east of the Amanus Moun

Open-File Report↗

Tin and related elements in sediments and beach sands from Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey

Sixty samples of sediments from stream beds, outwash plains, and beaches were collected in Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey by Fred L. Klinger, U.S. Bureau of Mines, as part of the field work undertaken by the National Geographic-Smithsonian Pyrotechnological Expedition of 1968. Facilities for the analysis of the samples for tin and other metals were not immediately available, but in 1973 arrangements were made for analyses to be made on a time-permitting basis in the U.S. Geological Survey. The original purpose in collecting the samples was to determine whether tin was present in amounts indicative of sources for tin ores used in antiquity for the manufacture of bronze. The results of the analyses not only permitted an evaluation of the potential for tin in the localities sampled, but also afforded chemical and mineralogical data that were interpretable in the context of regional potential for other elements of current industrial use. These include gold, base metals, ferro-alloy metals, beryllium, rare earths, and barium. The original 60 samples of sand were sieved to make three size fraction (>0.707 mm, <O.707->O.177 mm, and <0.177 mm) for spectrographic and chemical analysis. Splits of these fractions were used for replicate analyses to permit evaluation of the precision of the analytical procedures. Further splitting of the <0.707->0.177 mm sand gave fractions from each sample that were separated in bromoform. Concentrates from the heavy-liquid separations were divided magnetically into six parts from most magnetic to least magnetic. These concentrates were analyzed spectrographically. The precision of the spectrographic analyses is well within the limits of precision expected from semiquantitative procedures. Such precision allows semiquantitative spectrographic procedures to be used with confidence as a valuable tool for reconnaissance investigations in which multi-element analyses are necessary. The analyses of the various fractions of sediments and sediment concentrates indicate the sample media in which an element was most likely to occur. Tin exhibited no preferential concentration into any particular medium. However, many elements with which tin is associated, and other elements of industrial use, do concentrate into one or more of the sample media. This indication of a preferred medium permits interpretation of the analyses as to the best sample medium for a particular element in the environment of western Asia. Cassiterite and/or tin were detected in many samples from Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey, but in most of the samples the tin was present in normal crustal abundance. Sixteen samples, including seven from Afghanistan, eight from Iran, and one from Turkey contain unusually large amounts of tin. The most notable areas of anomalous tin are near Mirzaka, Qala-i-Asad, and Shah Agha in Afghanistan; near Meshed, Shir Kuh, Natanz, Nodus, and Talmesi in Iran; and on the shore of the Balck Sea just west of Trabzon in Turkey. Even in these localities the tin appears to be a minor element associated with other ores. The most common association of tin is with copper at known mineralized areas. This relation may have historical significance in the context of the development of bronze. The results of the analyses provided geochemical data on the distribution of other elements of industrial use and clearly identified nine of the ten known mineral deposits represented by the samples. The known metallization at the reported deposits may be only a part of more complex groups of metals. In Afghanistan an array of anomalous elements at the known gold placers around Mirzaka and along the Anguri River signals the presence of complex ore deposits. These elements are silver, arsenic, gold, bismuth, cadmium, copper, mercury, indium, molybdenum, lead, antimony, tin, thallium, tungsten, and zinc. They may indicate a Carlin-type gold deposit in which the wall-rocks are enriched in micron-sized particles of gold. Other localities in Afghanistan signalled by the results of the analyses to be anomalous and to merit further geochemical exploration are: (1) a reach of the Panjshir River for beryllium, lead, zinc, chromium and nickel; (2) the area near Bamian for beryllium; (3) the Siakhak village area for gold and copper; (4) around Qala-i-Asad and Shah Agha for lead, zinc, gold, and tungsten. Some attention to the distribution of monazite around Siakhak, Shahjui, Qala-i-Asad, and Shah Agha is justified to determine if this ore mineral for the rare earths and thorium is enriched over its normally expectable trace as an accessory mineral in granitic rocks, pelitic schists, and gneisses. In Iran, the pluton of granodiorite porphyry near Sar Cheshmeh, an area where a huge porphyry copper deposit was being investigated by the Geological Survey of Iran when the present samples were collected in 1968, shows as a strong geochemical anomaly for copper and molybdenum. The granitic area near Meshed is geochemically enriched persistently in beryllium, tin, and barium, and locally in gold, lanthanum, niobium, yttrium, and other elements. This area deserves a thorough regional geochemical survey for beryl and nonberyl sources of beryllium, for fluorite, and for the ores of niobium, tin, barium, the rare earths, and thorium. Other localities in Iran that merit geochemical exploration on the basis of these data are: ;1) the areas between Tabas and Deyhuk, east of Naiband, and south of Naiband for barium and zinc; (2) a locality about midway between Kerman and Sirdjan for barium, lanthanum, strontium, and zinc; (4) the Meskani copper mine area for mercury, lead, and nickel as well as copper; (5) the Talmesi copper mine area for such other elements as barium, cobalt, mercury, strontium, and zinc; (6) a small pluton of granodiorite north of Natanz for tungsten and base metals; (7) the vicinity of Zendjan for auriferous polymetallic sufide deposits; (8) gold in the gorge 15 km east of Miyaneh; and (9) the area near Nodus for gold, base metals, molybdenum, and niobium, and possibly uranium. The Harsit River basin in Turkey appears to be a suitable target for geochemical exploration for gold and low-temperature hydrothermal deposits of base metals, barium, and mercury.

Open-File Report↗

Potential hydrologic effects of developing coal and other geo-energy resources of Oregon; a review

Southwestern Oregon has several hundred million tons of good-quality minable coal. Because of the dip of the coal beds, the only economical method of mining would be by underground methods. In addition, minor occurrences of low-quality coal have been noted at more than 20 sites in both western and northeastern Oregon. About 2 million acres are now under lease for petroleum and gas exploration across the State. Natural gas was discovered in northwestern Oregon in 1979, and current production is about 17 million cubic feet per day from five wells. Thirteen Known Geothermal Resource Areas in several parts of the State cover 432,000 acres, and more than 420,000 acres are under lease for geothermal exploration. No hydrologic impacts have been noted from exploration and production of coal or other geoenergy resources in Oregon. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗