USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Ecology Movement”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

976 records · Page 55Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Hydrologic assessment of the shallow groundwater flow system beneath the Shinnecock Nation tribal lands, Suffolk County, New York

Defining the distribution and flow of shallow groundwater beneath the Shinnecock Nation tribal lands in Suffolk County, New York, is a crucial first step in identifying sources of potential contamination to the surficial aquifer and coastal ecosystems. The surficial or water table aquifer beneath the tribal lands is the primary source of potable water supply for at least 6 percent of the households on the tribal lands. Oyster fisheries and other marine ecosystems are critical to the livelihood of many residents living on the tribal lands, but are susceptible to contamination from groundwater entering the embayment from the surficial aquifer. Contamination of the surficial aquifer from flooding during intense coastal storms, nutrient loading from fertilizers, and septic effluent have been identified as potential sources of human and ecological health concerns on tribal lands. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) facilitated the installation of 17 water table wells on and adjacent to the tribal lands during March 2014. These wells were combined with other existing wells to create a 32-well water table monitoring network that was used to assess local hydrologic conditions. Survey-grade, global-navigation-satellite systems provided centimeter-level accuracy for positioning wellhead surveys. Water levels were measured by the USGS during May (spring) and November (fall) 2014 to evaluate seasonal effects on the water table. Water level measurements were made at high and low tide during May 2014 to identify potential effects on the water table caused by changes in tidal stage (tidal flux) in Shinnecock Bay. Water level contour maps indicate that the surficial aquifer is recharged by precipitation and upgradient groundwater flow that moves from the recharge zone located generally beneath Sunrise Highway, to the discharge zone beneath the tribal lands, and eventually discharges into the embayment, tidal creeks, and estuaries that bound the tribal lands to the east, south, and west. Water levels in many of the wells in the network fluctuated in response to precipitation, upgradient groundwater flow, and tidal flux in Shinnecock Bay. Water level altitudes ranged from 6.66 to 0.47 feet (ft) above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 during the spring measurement period, and from 5.25 to -0.24 ft (NAVD 88) during fall 2014. Historically, annual and seasonal precipitation seem to indicate long-term water level trends in an index well located in the town of Southampton, correlates with changes in storage in the upper glacial aquifer, but does not necessarily indicate water level extremes in the shallow groundwater system. To place the study period in perspective, calendar year 2014 was the 32d wettest year on record, with precipitation for the year totaling 48.1 inches, a 2.6-percent increase from the annual average (46.9 inches per year), based on 81 years of complete record at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service cooperative meteorological station at Bridgehampton, New York. Estimated recharge to the water table beneath the tribal lands from precipitation for 2014 is 25.4 inches. Tidal flux caused water levels in wells to fluctuate from 0.30 to -0.24 ft during May 2014. Water levels in wells located north of Old Fort Pond and beneath the southernmost extent of the tribal lands were most influenced by tidal flux. During June 2014, hydrographs indicate that tidal flux influenced water levels by 0.48 ft in a well located near the southernmost extent of the tribal lands approximately 0.3 miles north of Shinnecock Bay, and was zero at a well located approximately 0.5 miles south of Montauk Highway, and 0.4 miles west of Heady Creek, near the geographic center of the tribal lands. Tidal-influence delay time (time interval between peak high-tide stage and corresponding peak high-water level) ranged from 1.75 hours at the well located near the southernmost extent of the tribal lands, to more than 4 hours at a well located north of Old Fort Pond, near the northwestern part of the tribal lands. Estimated hydraulic-conductivity values derived from the results of specific-capacity tests that were completed at nine observation wells during March 2015 were used to calculate average linear velocity. Average linear velocity along conceptualized flow-path segments of the upper glacial aquifer located beneath the tribal lands was estimated using an assumed effective porosity value, and hydraulic-conductivity and hydraulic-head values that were interpolated from measured values. Groundwater travel times were estimated by dividing the length of the flow-path segment by the average linear velocity along the flow-path segment. Total estimated groundwater travel time along a conceptualized flow path, beginning near Sunrise Highway and terminating at Shinnecock Bay, is approximately 45 years using a porosity value of 30 percent. A surficial-silty unit was identified from approximately 0 to 10 ft below land surface at multiple locations beneath the tribal lands. The lithology of the surficial unit was verified by interpreted gamma log results obtained from select wells, and auger-rig drill cuttings from an observation well located near the geographic center of the tribal lands. The altitude of the unit varies with topography and was delineated along a cross section line that trends north-south along the approximate centerline (spine) of the tribal lands. The altitude of the hydrogeologic contact between the upper glacial and the Magothy aquifers generally decreases from northwest to southeast, occurs at a depth ranging from about 150 to 200 ft beneath the tribal lands, and was identified at two locations north of the tribal lands, near Sunrise Highway and Sebonac Road. Results of electrical geophysical surveys indicate that the depth to the freshwater/saltwater interface decreases from north to south with decreasing water level altitude, and the Magothy and upper glacial aquifers contain saltwater at varying depths along the north-south trending section. Results of the surveys also indicate that the Magothy aquifer beneath the tribal lands contains brackish and salty water and is not considered a source of potable water supply. In general, depth to the interface increases with increasing geographic distance from the coastline. Low water table altitudes can result in increased saltwater encroachment into the surficial aquifer beneath the tribal lands. This upward movement and shallow depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface can jeopardize water quality in wells that supply water for domestic use.

New York↗
USGS2012

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Tillamook Bay tributaries and Nehalem River basin, northwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Tillamook (drainage area 156 square kilometers [km 2 ]), Trask (451 km 2 ), Wilson (500 km 2 ), Kilchis (169 km 2 ), Miami (94 km 2 ), and Nehalem (2,207 km 2 ) Rivers along the northwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted in coopera-tion with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Oregon Department of State Lands to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: Study areas along the six rivers can be divided into reaches based on tidal influence and topography. The fluvial (nontidal or dominated by riverine processes) reaches vary in length (2.4-9.3 kilometer [km]), gradient (0.0011-0.0075 meter of elevation change per meter of channel length [m/m]), and bed-material composition (a mixture of alluvium and intermittent bedrock outcrops to predominately alluvium). In fluvial reaches, unit bar area (square meter of bar area per meter of channel length [m 2 /m]) as mapped from 2009 photographs ranged from 7.1 m 2 /m on the Tillamook River to 27.9 m 2 /m on the Miami River. In tidal reaches, all six rivers flow over alluvial deposits, but have varying gradients (0.0001-0.0013 m/m) and lengths affected by tide (1.3-24.6 km). The Miami River has the steepest and shortest tidal reach and the Nehalem River has the flattest and longest tidal reach. Bars in the tidal reaches are generally composed of sand and mud. Unit bar area was greatest in the Tidal Nehalem Reach, where extensive mud flats flank the lower channel. Background factors such as valley and channel confinement, basin geology, channel slope, and tidal extent control the spatial variation in the accumulation and texture of bed material. Presently, the Upper Fluvial Wilson and Miami Reaches and Fluvial Nehalem Reach have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to local bed-material sources in combination with decreasing channel gradient and valley confinement. Natural and human-caused disturbances such as mass movements, logging, fire, channel modifications for navigation and flood control, and gravel mining also have varying effects on channel condition, bed-material transport, and distribution and area of bars throughout the study areas and over time. Existing datasets include at least 16 and 18 sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study areas in the Tillamook Bay tributary basins and Nehalem River basin, respectively, from 1939 to 2011. These photographs are available for future assessments of long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. High resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) surveys acquired in 2007-2009 could support future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport in all study areas. A review of deposited and mined gravel volumes reported for instream gravel mining sites shows that bed-material deposition tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Mean annual deposition volumes on individual bars exceeded 3,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) on Donaldson Bar on the Wilson River, Dill Bar on the Kilchis River, and Plant and Winslow Bars on the Nehalem River. Cumulative reported volumes of bed-material deposition were greatest at Donaldson and Dill Bars, totaling over 25,000 m 3 per site from 2004 to 2011. Within this period, reported cumulative mined volumes were greatest for the Donaldson, Plant, and Winslow Bars, ranging from 24,470 to 33,940 m 3 . Analysis of historical stage-streamflow data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Wilson River near Tillamook (14301500) and Nehalem River near Foss (14301000) shows that these rivers have episodically aggraded and incised, mostly following high flow events, but they do not exhibit systematic, long-term trends in bed elevation. Multiple cross sections show that channels near bridge crossings in all six study areas are dynamic with many subject to incision and aggradation as well as lateral shifts in thalweg position and bank deposition and erosion. In fluvial reaches, unit bar area declined a net 5.3-83.6 percent from 1939 to 2009. The documented reduction in bar area may be attributable to several factors, including vegetation establishment and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces, lateral channel changes and resulting alterations in sediment deposition and erosion patterns, and streamflow and/or tide differences between photographs. Other factors that may be associated with the observed reduction in bar area but not assessed in this reconnaissance level study include changes in the sediment and hydrology regimes of these rivers over the analysis period. In tidal reaches, unit bar area increased on the Tillamook and Nehalem Rivers (98.0 and 14.7 percent, respectively), but declined a net 24.2 to 83.1 percent in the other four tidal reaches. Net increases in bar area in the Tidal Tillamook and Nehalem Reaches were possibly attributable to tidal differences between the photographs as well as sediment deposition behind log booms and pile structures on the Tillamook River between 1939 and 1967. The armoring ratio (ratio of the median grain sizes of a bar's surface and subsurface layers) was 1.6 at Lower Waldron Bar on the Miami River, tentatively indicating a relative balance between transport capacity and sediment supply at this location. Armoring ratios, however, ranged from 2.4 to 5.5 at sites on the Trask, Wilson, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers; these coarse armor layers probably reflect limited bed-material supply at these sites. On the basis of mapping results, measured armoring ratios, and channel cross section surveys, preliminary conclusions are that the fluvial reaches on the Tillamook, Trask, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers are currently sediment supply-limited in terms of bed material - that is, the transport capacity of the channel generally exceeds the supply of bed material. The relation between transport capacity and sediment is more ambiguous for the fluvial reaches on the Wilson and Miami Rivers, but transport-limited conditions are likely for at least parts of these reaches. Some of these reaches have possibly evolved from sediment supply-limited to transport-limited over the last several decades in response to changing basin and climate conditions. Because of exceedingly low gradients, all the tidal reaches are transport-limited. Bed material in these reaches, however, is primarily sand and finer grain-size material and probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. These reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to basins on the southwestern Oregon coast, such as the Chetco and Rogue River basins, these six basins likely transport overall less gravel bed material. Although tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements, this conclusion is supported by the much lower area and frequency of bars and longer tidal reaches along all the northcoast rivers examined in this study. Previous studies suggest that the expansive and largely unvegetated bars visible in the 1939 photographs are primarily associated with voluminous sedimentation starting soon after the first Tillamook Burn fire in 1933. However, USGS studies of temporal bar trends in other Oregon coastal rivers unaffected by the Tillamook Burn show similar declines in bar area over approximately the same analysis period. In the Umpqua and Chetco River basins, historical declines in bar area are associated with long-term decreases in flood magnitude. Other factors may include changes in the type and volume of large wood and riparian vegetation. Further characterization of hydrology patterns in these basins and possible linkages with climate factors related to flood peaks, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, could support inferences of expected future changes in vegetation establishment and channel planform and profile. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the fluvial study areas on the Wilson, Kilchis, Miami, and Nehalem Rivers and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. Tidal reaches may also be logical subjects for indepth analysis where studies would be more relevant to the deposition and transport of fine sediment (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Coquille River basin, southwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Coquille River basin, which encompasses 2,745 km 2 (square kilometers) of the southwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: The 115.4-km-long study area on the South Fork and mainstem Coquille River can be divided into four reaches on the basis of topography and hydrology. In the fluvial (nontidal, or dominated by riverine processes) reaches on the South Fork Coquille River, the channel consists of bedrock and alluvium in the Powers Reach and mostly alluvium in the Broadbent Reach. In both fluvial reaches, the channel alternates between confined and unconfined segments and contains gravel bars. In the tidally affected Myrtle Point and Bandon Reaches, the channel consists of alluvial deposits and contains sparse gravel and sand bars as well as expansive mud flats and tidal marshes near the Coquille River mouth. The 15.4- and 14.6-km-long study areas on the Middle and North Forks of the Coquille River, respectively, were treated as distinct reaches. The channel beds consist of mixed bedrock and alluvium in the Bridge Reach on the Middle Fork Coquille River and alluvium in the Gravelford Reach on the North Fork Coquille River. Both of these reaches contain fewer bars than the Powers and Broadbent Reaches on the South Fork Coquille River and are predominately fluvial. Channel condition, bed-material transport, and the distribution and area of bars have likely been influenced by logging and splash damming, dredging and wood removal for navigation, historical and ongoing instream gravel mining, gold mining, fires, and mass movements. These anthropogenic and natural disturbances likely have varying effects on channel condition and sediment flux throughout the study area and over time. Available data include at least eight sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study area from 1939 to 2011 that are available for assessing long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. Additionally, a high-resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) survey conducted in 2008 for nearly the entire study area would be useful in future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport. Previous studies found (1) substantial bank erosion in the Broadbent Reach, resulting in banks with near vertical profiles and heights exceeding 7.6 m, (2) erosion of over 40,000 square meters of riparian land from 1939 to 1992, (3) incision along the South Fork Coquille River, and (4) potential for lateral channel migration at several locations along the mainstem and South Fork Coquille River. A review of deposited and mined bed-material estimates derived largely from repeat surveys at instream mining sites on the South Fork Coquille River indicates that bed material transported by the river tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Reported annual deposition volumes for 1996–2009 indicate average transport of over 34,700 cubic meters per year (m 3 /yr) of bed material into the South Fork Coquille River study area. The spatial variation in the number and area of gravel bars is controlled by factors such as valley confinement, channel slope, basin geology, and tidal extent. The Powers and Broadbent Reaches of the South Fork Coquille River have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to a substantial area of the South Fork Coquille River basin draining the gravel-producing Klamath Mountains geologic province. From 1939 to 2009, the fluvial reaches all had a net loss in bar area, ranging from 24 percent in the Powers Reach to 56 percent in the Bridge Reach. In the Powers and Broadbent Reaches, the declines in active bar area were associated primarily with vegetation establishment on bar surfaces and lateral bar erosion. The reductions in active bar area were attributed to vegetation establishment in the Bridge and Gravelford Reaches as well as some lateral bar erosion in the Bridge Reach. In contrast, the tidal Myrtle Point and Bandon Reaches had a net increase in bar area (28 and 29 percent, respectively) from 1939 to 2009. In the Myrtle Point Reach, these increases in bar area were primarily attributed to lateral channel migration that led to the deposition of bed material at newly formed bars. In the Bandon Reach, bar area increased primarily in the lower 5.4 km of the reach owing possibly to factors such as tide differences between the photographs and sediment deposition. Analyses of multiple channel cross sections along the South Fork Coquille River as well as historical stage-discharge data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at Powers, Oregon, indicate that the bed of the South Fork Coquille River has locally lowered, as much as 1.9 m from 1994 to 2008 for one site in the Broadbent Reach. Stage-discharge data indicate persistent incision at the Powers site since 1939 (with a net incision of about 0.3 m) that has been interrupted by episodic aggradation apparently corresponding with large floods. For the Bridge and Gravelford Reaches on the Middle and North Forks of the Coquille River, channel cross sections indicate a mix of aggradation and incision as well as bank erosion and deposition from 1992 to 2010 and 2000 to 2009, respectively. Cross sections in the tidal reaches indicate local incision of 0.4 m in at one site in the Myrtle Point Reach from 2004 to 2008 and 0.5 m at one site in in the Bandon Reach from 2000 to 2010. On the South Fork Coquille River, the median diameter of surface particles varied from 78.0 mm (millimeters) at China Flat Bar slightly upstream of the study area to 48.8 mm at Seals Bar in the Broadbent Reach. The armoring ratio (or ratio of the median grain sizes of the surface and subsurface layers) for Seals Bar was 3.5, indicating that the river’s transport capacity likely exceeds sediment supply at this site. Most fluvial reaches in the Coquille River study area are likely supply-limited, meaning that the river’s transport capacity exceeds the supply of bed-material, as indicated by the intermittent bedrock outcrops in the Powers and Bridge Reaches and the paucity of bars in the Bridge and Gravelford Reaches. The Broadbent Reach of the South Fork Coquille River may be presently and probably was historically transport-limited, meaning that bed-material transport is primarily a function of local transport capacity. However, the locally coarse bed texture, high armoring ratio measured at Seals Bar, and recent channel incision indicate that sediment supply has likely diminished relative to transport capacity in recent decades. Because of exceedingly low gradients, the tidal Myrtle Point and Bandon Reaches are transport limited. Bed material in these reaches is primarily sand and finer grain-size material, much of which is probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. The tidal reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to the nearby Chetco and Rogue Rivers and Hunter Creek on the southwestern Oregon coast, the Coquille River likely has lower overall transport of gravel bed material. While the conclusion of lower bed-material transport in the Coquille River is tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements or transport capacity calculations, empirical evidence including the much lower area and frequency of bars for most of the Coquille River study area and the head of tide reaching to RKM (river kilometer) 63.2 on the South Fork Coquille River supports this conclusion. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the Powers and Broadbent Reaches and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. The tidal Bandon and Myrtle Point Reaches may also be logical subjects for in-depth analyses of fine sediment deposition and transport (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗
USGS2023

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive Summary The authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting elk populations over time with wider implications for Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) populations and hunting, tourism, and regional revenue. Supplemental feeding is thought to improve overwinter elk survival and reduce the commingling of elk with cattle during months when brucellosis transmission risk is highest. We worked with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to identify their fundamental objectives and associated performance metrics related to this feedground decision. We then developed disease and habitat selection models to quantify the effect of four management alternatives on select performance metrics. The four alternatives were to continue to permit feeding, phaseout permits to feed in three years, permit feeding on an emergency basis, or stop permitting feeding. In this report, we present methods and summarized results on disease and habitat selection models and summaries of other performance metrics analyzed by BIO-WEST, Inc. and Cirrus Ecological Solutions as part of an Environmental Impact Statement. Data from Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) supported the assumption that supplemental elk feeding allows for larger elk populations in a region. We documented that herd units (HU) without feedgrounds had 23 percent lower densities of elk per area of winter range when compared against HUs with feedgrounds, after accounting for differences in sightability of elk during counts on and off feedgrounds. Thus, throughout our analyses, we assumed feedground closures would reduce elk carrying capacity resulting in an average decline of previously fed elk population segments by 23 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [11 percent, 35 percent]) by year 20. Most of that decline occurred within the first few years after a feedground ceases to operate. We used a panel of CWD experts to help estimate CWD trans-mission in fed and unfed elk population segments. In aggregate, the expert panel estimated that median values of direct and indirect transmission of CWD are expected to be 1.9 and 4 times higher, respectively, in fed elk populations compared to unfed elk. We used these disease transmission estimates in combination with local elk demographic rates and carrying capacity estimates to project disease and population dynamics. In year 20, we predicted CWD prevalence would increase to 42 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [29 percent, 55 percent]), and 13 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [4 percent, 26 percent]) on average for fed and unfed elk population segments, respectively, given a starting prevalence of 1.6 percent. The prevalence estimates for the unfed elk population segments are in the range of previous observations of CWD in elk in the western United States. The average CWD prevalence from 2016 to 2018 in the unfed elk population of Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota was 18 percent overall but up to 30 percent in some regions (Sargeant and others, 2021). Meanwhile, CWD prevalence in the Iron Mountain and Laramie Peak elk herds in Wyoming from 2016 to 2018 was 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, despite being present since at least 2002 (Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 2020b). From 2016 to 2020, elk that were fed at Dell Creek and Forest Park constituted on average 12–20 percent of the total elk on their respective HUs. As a result, the differences between management alternatives are modest when considering the closure of only one feedground on a HU. The no feeding alternative for Forest Park resulted in a CWD prevalence of 17 percent (SD = 7 percent) in the Afton HU compared to 20 percent (SD = 7 percent) with continued feeding by year 20. In the Upper Green River HU, no feeding on Dell Creek resulted in a CWD prevalence of 27 percent (SD = 6 percent) compared to 30 percent (SD = 5 percent) with continued feeding. In terms of disease-associated mortality, we predicted the closure of Forest Park and Dell Creek feedgrounds would reduce the total number of CWD mortalities by 9 percent in the Upper Green River HU and 26 percent in the Afton HU during the 20-year timespan. Our spatial analyses predicted that management alternative effects vary by HU as a function of private property and other wildlife winter ranges proximity relative to feedground location. The predicted number of elk abortions on private land, as a proxy for brucellosis risk to cattle, may increase by 8–21 percent in the absence of feeding at Dell Creek and Forest Park. Eight feedgrounds are located on Bridger-Teton National Forest, all of which have permits that have expired or will expire prior to 2028. In addition, WGFD could change their management of feedgrounds given new information; therefore, we also assessed the cumulative effects of continued feeding, phaseout, and no feeding management alternatives across five HUs south of Jackson, Wyoming (Afton HU, Fall Creek HU, Piney HU, Pinedale HU, and Upper Green River HU). These five HUs ranged from about 41 to 85 percent of the elk herd using feedgrounds, which corresponded to a CWD prevalence at year 20 of 23–34 percent if all feedgrounds in those five HUs remained open relative to 12 to 14 percent if all feedgrounds were closed. We predicted feedground closures may result in immediate reductions in population size relative to alternatives that continue feeding (for example, continued feeding and emergency feeding alternatives); however, over longer periods of time, CWD-associated mortality leads to larger population reductions. The no feeding alternative resulted in higher elk population sizes compared to the continued feeding alternative after about 10 years of implementation. Delayed action under a phaseout alternative resulted in increasing the CWD prevalence to 20 percent relative to 12 to 14 percent, on average, without feeding on HUs with a large population of fed elk such as the Upper Green River HU. Summarizing our cumulative results across all five of the analyzed HUs, we predicted continued feeding will lead to fewer elk by year 20 (mean = 8,300, standard deviation [SD] = 740) compared to no feeding at U.S. Department of Agri-culture Forest Service sites (10,700, SD = 890). The closure of all feedgrounds was projected to result in the largest elk populations at year 20 (12,500, SD = 980). No feeding at all sites also resulted in the largest cumulative harvest of 57,700 (SD = 2,600) compared to 51,100 (SD = 3,800) for continued feeding at all current feedground sites on the five HUs. Continued feeding also resulted in the lowest brucellosis costs to producers ($194,600, SD = $11,500) compared to no feeding on all feedgrounds ($243,000, SD = $13,700). Assuming moderate reductions in hunter interest because of increasing CWD prevalence in elk, we predicted that no feeding resulted in regional revenues generated by hunting activities of $190 million (SD = $10 million) compared to $173 million (SD = $10 million) for continued feeding over the 20-year timeframe. Recent CWD detections in mule deer and elk in Grand Teton National Park has elevated the importance of the cur-rent decision on whether, and how, to permit elk feeding on Dell Creek and Forest Park and the management of the other feedgrounds. Aggressive male harvest has slowed, but not stopped, the increasing prevalence of CWD in mule deer (Conner and others, 2021). It is unclear whether harvest management can be an effective tool to slow the spread of CWD in elk. There are also no effective treatments or vaccines for CWD, and it is unlikely that any will be developed that can be easily deployed in the near future. Thus, reducing artificial aggregations is one of the few management approaches suggested by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Almberg and others, 2017). Future surveillance and monitoring can be designed to resolve uncertainties that can improve future decision-making. If feedgrounds close, research could quantify elk population reductions in the absence of feeding, the redistribution of fed elk to other places, or the consequences of elk movement on private property. If feedgrounds remain open, research could assess how rapidly CWD spreads in artificial aggregations of elk; however, surveillance programs would need to be designed with sufficient power to detect initial changes of CWD prevalence. Delaying action on feedground management was projected to be costly. Results of the phaseout alternative relative to the no feeding alternative suggested a 3-year delay was enough for substantial long-term changes in CWD prevalence. The long-term persistence of infectious CWD prions in the environment suggests that feedground management decisions may have long-lasting consequences. Our results indicated tradeoffs in the ability of a management agency to achieve all their objectives, and all management alternatives resulted in significant reductions in elk population size. This report contains the foundational elements for formal decision analysis methods, which can be implemented to help decision makers transparently evaluate the consequences of decision alternatives and identify the set of actions that best achieve agency and stakeholder priorities.

Wyoming↗