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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources

Adult spawners: A critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate

Concurrent, distribution-wide abundance declines of some Pacific salmon species, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), highlights the need to understand how vulnerability at different life stages to climate stressors affects population dynamics and fisheries sustainability. Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks are among the largest subarctic populations, near the northernmost extent of the species range. Existing research suggests that Yukon River Chinook salmon population dynamics are largely driven by factors occurring between the adult spawner life stage and their offspring's first summer at sea (second year post-hatching). However, specific mechanisms sustaining chronic poor productivity are unknown, and there is a tremendous sense of urgency to understand causes, as declines of these stocks have taken a serious toll on commercial, recreational, and indigenous subsistence fisheries. Therefore, we leveraged multiple existing datasets spanning parent and juvenile stages of life history in freshwater and marine habitats. We analyzed environmental data in association with the production of offspring that survive to the marine juvenile stage (juveniles per spawner). These analyses suggest more than 45% of the variability in the production of juvenile Chinook salmon is associated with river temperatures or water discharge levels during the parent spawning migration. Over the past two decades, parents that experienced warmer water temperatures and lower discharge in the mainstem Yukon River produced fewer juveniles per spawning adult. We propose the adult spawner life stage as a critical period regulating population dynamics. We also propose a conceptual model that can explain associations between population dynamics and climate stressors using independent data focused on marine nutrition and freshwater heat stress. It is sobering to consider that some of the northernmost Pacific salmon habitats may already be unfavorable to these cold-water species. Our findings have immediate implications, given the common assumption that northern ranges of Pacific salmon offer refugia from climate stressors.

Alaska↗

Making research relevant: Sharing climate change research with rangeland advisors to transform results into drought resilience

On the Ground • Public programs, strategies, and incentives to implement rangeland climate adaptation are more effective if they are tailored to local drought exposures, sensitivities, and adaptation opportunities. As such, local rangeland advisers who aid in climate adaptation are pivotal to the development of these resources. • We hosted a virtual workshop with rangeland advisors to share results from our climate vulnerability assessment, gain their insight on finding usability, and discuss visions for resource creation. • Climate adaptation resources should not follow a one-size-fits-all approach. Accommodating variety in resource development and outreach must consider multiple factors: variation in the ranching community, instability in the environment beyond climate, and rancher/manager identified variables in climate vulnerability assessment analyses.

Rangelands↗

Evaluating how changing climate and water clarity can affect restoration of native coregonine fishes in midwestern lakes

In the upper midwestern United States, coregonine fishes (e.g., ciscoes and whitefishes) have provided a key food source for Indigenous peoples since time immemorial. In the last century, however, several anthropogenic stressors including overfishing, declining quality of key habitat (e.g., dams, algal blooms), and negative interactions with invasive species have led to declines in the fisheries that coregonines support. Hence, fishery managers have undertaken steps to conserve existing diversity or re-introduce species that have been locally extirpated. This study assessed the extent to which changes in water clarity and climate pose challenges for conservation of coregonines and sought to provide information to inform management decisions about which populations would be best for reintroduction. Through experiments, we found that a Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) population at the southern edge of its range had no marked advantages in respiration or thermal tolerance, relative to a northern Great Lake population. This result indicates that the latter population would be a reasonable candidate for reintroduction in Lake Erie, where warming water could be a potential impediment. Other laboratory experiments revealed that Cisco could be vulnerable to increasing ultraviolet radiation (UV; 280 – 320 nm) penetration in lakes due to reduced ice cover and increased water clarity owing to water quality improvements and/or invasive mussel filtration. Our experiments found that UV exposure causes earlier hatching, more irregular pigmentation near the head and yolk-sac region, and reduced heart rate. Therefore, UV could be a heretofore unrealized threat to Cisco populations. Through the completion of additional final products from this project and additional research connecting laboratory and field data together, the extent to which the eggs and larvae of coregonine species could be vulnerable to increased UV associated with increasing water clarity or reduced ice cover will help inform restoration or conservation planning for these fish.

Cooperator Report↗

Climate Change in Port Heiden, Alaska - Strategies for Community Health

There are two components to this document. The first component is the scope of described environmental change and its impacts in Port Heiden Alaska. The second component is a list of priorities to be addressed that will help Port Heiden achieve its vision for the future. Each priority area incorporates local knowledge with available climate science and takes the expected future changes in to consideration.

Alaska↗

Late Quaternary sedimentation on the Leidy Creek fan, Nevada–California: Geomorphic responses to climate change

Well-dated surface and subsurface deposits in semiarid Fish Lake Valley, Nevada and California, demonstrate that alluvial-fan deposition is strongly associated with the warm dry climate of the last two interglacial intervals, and that fans were stable and (or) incised during the last glaciation. Fan deposition was probably triggered by a change from relatively moist to arid conditions causing a decrease in vegetation cover and increases in flash floods and sediment yield. We think that this scenario applies to most of the other valleys in the southern Basin and Range. Radiocarbon, tephra, and a few thermoluminescence and cosmogenic ages from outcrops throughout Fish Lake Valley and from cores on the Leidy Creek fan yield ages of >100–50 ka and 11–0 ka for the last two periods of alluvial-fan deposition. Mapping, coring and shallow seismic profiling indicate that these periods were synchronous throughout the valley and on the proximal and distal parts of the fans. From 50 to 11 ka, fan deposition ceased, a soil formed on the older alluvium and the axial drainage became active as runoff and stream competence increased. Slow deposition due to sheet flow or aeolian processes locally continued during this interval, producing cumulic soil profiles. The soil was buried by debris-flow sediment beginning at about 11 ka, coincident with the onset of relatively dry and warm conditions in the region. However, ground-water discharge maintained a large freshwater marsh on the valley floor throughout the Holocene. Pulses of deposition during the Holocene are recorded in the marsh and fan deposits; some pulses coincided with periods of or transitions to warm, dry climate indicated by proxy climate records, whereas others may reflect local disturbances associated with volcanism and fires. Within the marsh deposits, much of the clastic material is probably desert loess. In addition, the deposition of coppice dunes within the fan deposits coincides with two dry periods during the late Holocene.

California, Nevada↗

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold-adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

Minnesota↗

Facilitating adaptation to climate change while restoring a montane plant community

Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation, and made downslope movements to track shifts in climatic water balance. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration strategies will need to incorporate the habitat suitability of future predicted conditions to ensure long-term persistence. We propagated seedlings of three native Hawaiian montane plant species from high- (~2,500 m asl) and low-elevation (~1,900 m asl) sources, planted them in 8 common plots along a 500 m elevation gradient, and monitored microclimate at each plot for 20 weeks. We explored how temperature and precipitation influenced survival and growth differently among high- and low-elevation origin seedlings. Significantly more seedlings of only one species, Dodonaea viscosa , from high-elevation origin (75.2%) survived than seedlings from low-elevation origin (58.7%) across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in generalized linear mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D . viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense . Survival increased with elevation and soil moisture for Sophora chrysophylla , while it decreased for the other two species. Responses to microclimate varied between the three montane plant species; there were no common patterns of growth or survival. Although limited in temporal scope, our experiment represents one of the few attempts to examine local adaptation to prospective climate scenarios and addresses challenges to restoration efforts within species’ current ranges.

Hawaii↗

Impacts of climate change on the formation and stability of late Quaternary sand sheets and falling dunes, Black Mesa region, southern Colorado Plateau, USA

Detailed geomorphic mapping and analysis of soil-stratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of eolian sand dunes on Black Mesa, Arizona, reveal eolian sediment deposition occurred from 30 to 16 ka, followed by a period of widespread dune stabilization from 12 to 8 ka. Localized reactivation of the previously stabilized dune forms or local changes in sediment supply have occurred in the middle to late Holocene in this region. Cooler, wetter, and more variable climatic conditions during MIS 3 and 2 led to increased channel and floodplain sediment supply. Eolian sediment derived from these sources was transported up to 60 km. Deposition of this material has reduced regional topographic roughness by filling tributary canyon ‘traps’ oriented perpendicular to the dominant wind and sediment transport direction. Topographically controlled falling dunes and sand ramps in this region are preserved because of their geomorphic position and provide evidence of the paleoenvironmental state of the fluvial and eolian systems before, during, and immediately after the last glacial maximum on the southern Colorado Plateau. Widely used predictive models of eolian system dynamics are typically based entirely on climatic variables and do not account for landscape complexity and geomorphic history. Climate-only assumptions fail to give accurate predictions of the dynamics of this and many other dune fields. A growing body of work suggests that eolian deposits in wind-driven semiarid climates may be more strongly related to increases in sediment supply than to increases in aridity.

Arizona↗

Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and response to climate change in the Roaring River valley, Front Range, Colorado, USA

Stratigraphic analyses and radiocarbon geochronology of alluvial deposits exposed along the Roaring River, Colorado, lead to three principal conclusions: (1) the opinion that stream channels in the higher parts of the Front Range are relics of the Pleistocene and nonalluvial under the present climate, as argued in a water-rights trial USA v. Colorado, is untenable, (2) beds of clast-supported gravel alternate in vertical succession with beds of fine-grained sediment (sand, mud, and peat) in response to centennial-scale changes in snowmelt-driven peak discharges, and (3) alluvial strata provide information about Holocene climate history that complements the history provided by cirque moraines, periglacial deposits, and paleontological data. Most alluvial strata are of late Holocene age and record, among other things, that: (1) the largest peak flows since the end of the Pleistocene occurred during the late Holocene; (2) the occurrence of a mid- to late Holocene interval (~2450–1630(?) cal yr BP) of warmer climate, which is not clearly identified in palynological records; and (3) the Little Ice Age climate seems to have had little impact on stream channels, except perhaps for minor (~1 m) incision. Published

Colorado↗

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems? We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ~80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ~30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

Alaska↗

Developing an ecosystem services online decision support tool to assess the impacts of climate change and urban growth in the Santa Cruz watershed: Where we live, work, and play

Using respective strengths of the biological, physical, and social sciences, we are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), to help promote the use of information relevant to water allocation and land management in a binational watershed along the U.S.-Mexico border. The SCWEPM will include an ES valuation system within a suite of linked regional driver-response models and will use a multicriteria scenario-evaluation framework that builds on GIS analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to climate patterns, regional water budgets, and regional LULC change in the SCW.

Arizona↗

Oxygen isotopes in terrestrial gastropod shells track Quaternary climate change in the American Southwest

Recent studies have shown the oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of modern terrestrial gastropod shells is determined largely by the δ 18 O of precipitation. This implies that fossil shells could be used to reconstruct the δ 18 O of paleo-precipitation as long as the isotopic system, including the hydrologic pathways of the local watershed and the gastropod systematics, is well understood. In this study, we measured the δ 18 O values of 456 individual gastropod shells collected from paleowetland deposits in the San Pedro Valley, Arizona that range in age from ca. 29.1 to 9.8 ka. Isotopic differences of up to 2‰ were identified among the four taxa analyzed (Succineidae, Pupilla hebes , Gastrocopta tappaniana , and Vallonia gracilicosta ), with Succineidae shells yielding the highest values and V . gracilicosta shells exhibiting the lowest values. We used these data to construct a composite isotopic record that incorporates these taxonomic offsets, and found shell δ 18 O values increased by ~4‰ between the last glacial maximum and early Holocene, which is similar to the magnitude, direction, and rate of isotopic change recorded by speleothems in the region. These results suggest the terrestrial gastropods analyzed here may be used as a proxy for past climate in a manner that is complementary to speleothems, but potentially with much greater spatial coverage.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗

Phenotypic plasticity and climate change: Can polar bears respond to longer Arctic summers with an adaptive fast?

Plasticity in the physiological and behavioural responses of animals to prolonged food shortages may determine the persistence of species under climate warming. This is particularly applicable for species that can “adaptively fast” by conserving protein to protect organ function while catabolizing endogenous tissues. Some Ursids, including polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), adaptively fast during winter hibernation—and it has been suggested that polar bears also employ this strategy during summer. We captured 57 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) during summer 2008 and 2009 and measured blood variables that indicate feeding, regular fasting, and adaptive fasting. We also assessed tissue δ13C and δ15N to infer diet, and body condition via mass and length. We found that bears on shore maintained lipid and protein stores by scavenging on bowhead whale ( Balaena mysticetus ) carcasses from human harvest, while those that followed the retreating sea ice beyond the continental shelf were food deprived. They had low ratios of blood urea to creatinine (U:C), normally associated with adaptive fasting. However, they also exhibited low albumin and glucose (indicative of protein loss) and elevated alanine aminotransferase and ghrelin (which fall during adaptive fasting). Thus, the ~ 70% of the SBS subpopulation that spends summer on the ice experiences more of a regular, rather than adaptive, fast. This fast will lengthen as summer ice declines. The resulting protein loss prior to winter could be a mechanism driving the reported correlation between summer ice and polar bear reproduction and survival in the SBS.

Oecologia↗

Permafrost-related processes and recent response to climatic changes

Permafrost-related processes have direct and indirect consequences to northern environments, but the impacts are affected by complex interactions involving positive and negative feedbacks at the surface (Jorgenson et al. 2010), climatic trends and fluctuations (Romanovsky et al. 2010; Konishchev 2011), and terrain and ground ice conditions (French and Shur 2010, Ukraintseva et al. 2012; Murton 2013). The degradation (reduction of thickness and/or lateral extent) of permafrost and the related disturbance of the surface are associated with a diverse set of processes such as thermokarst (the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ice followed by subsidence of the ground surface and potential formation of a water body), thermal erosion (downwearing from moving water), thermal abrasion (backwearing from moving water), and thermal denudation associated with hillslope processes (downslope movement of soil or rock, such as frost creep, solifluction and cryogenic landslides including active-layer detachments and retrogressive thaw slumps). At the same time, the aggradation of permafrost and related processes (e.g., frost heave and formation of ice wedges and pingos) are still occurring during the observed climatic warming trend in the northern hemisphere. For example, the drainage of thermokarst lakes expose taliks (unfrozen ground beneath the water body) to the negative mean-annual ground surface temperatures in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zone, which results in talik freezing accompanied by accumulation of ground ice. Both permafrost aggradation and degradation associated with thermokarst and other thaw-related features requires further observation and study to determine the pan-Arctic response of the landscape to climatic trends and fluctuations.

Book chapter↗

Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States

Current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species were modeled in the Southwestern United States. Rather than taking a broad-scale, vulnerability-assessment approach, we created a species distribution model (SDM) for each focal species incorporating climatic, landscape, and plant variables. Baseline climate (1940–2009) was characterized with Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data and future climate with global-circulation-model data under an A1B emission scenario. Climatic variables included monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation; landscape variables included terrain ruggedness, soil type, and insolation; and plant variables included trees and shrubs commonly associated with a focal species. Not all species-distribution models contained a plant, but if they did, we included a built-in annual migration rate for more accurate plant-range projections in 2039 or 2099. We conducted a group meta-analysis to (1) determine how influential each variable class was when averaged across all species distribution models (birds or reptiles), and (2) identify the correlation among contemporary (2009) habitat fragmentation and biological attributes and future range projections (2039 or 2099). Projected changes in bird and reptile ranges varied widely among species, with one-third of the ranges predicted to expand and two-thirds predicted to contract. A group meta-analysis indicated that climatic variables were the most influential variable class when averaged across all models for both groups, followed by landscape and plant variables (birds), or plant and landscape variables (reptiles), respectively. The second part of the meta-analysis indicated that numerous contemporary habitat-fragmentation (for example, patch isolation) and biological-attribute (for example, clutch size, longevity) variables were significantly correlated with the magnitude of projected range changes for birds and reptiles. Patch isolation was a significant trans-specific driver of projected bird and reptile ranges, suggesting that strategic actions should focus on restoration and enhancement of habitat at local and regional scales to promote landscape connectivity and conservation of core areas.

Open-File Report↗

Climate change may cause shifts in growth and instantaneous natural mortality of American Shad throughout their native range

American Shad Alosa sapidissima is an anadromous species with populations ranging along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Past American Shad stock assessments have been data limited and estimating system-specific growth parameters or instantaneous natural mortality ( M ) was not possible. This precluded system-specific stock assessment and management due to reliance on these parameters for estimating other population dynamics (such as yield per recruit). Furthermore, climate-informed biological reference points remain a largely unaddressed need in American Shad stock assessment. Population abundance estimates of American Shad and other species often rely heavily on M derived from von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) parameters. Therefore, we developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate coastwide, regional, and system-specific VBGF parameters and M using data collected from 1982 to 2017. We tested predictive performance of models that included effects of various climate variables on VBGF parameters within these models. System-specific models were better supported than regional or coast-wide models. Mean asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) decreased with increasing mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and degree days (DD) experienced by fish during their lifetime. Although uncertain, K (Brody growth coefficient) decreased over the same range of lifetime SST and DD. Assuming no adaptation, we projected changes in VBGF parameters and M through 2099 using modeled SST from two climate projection scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We predicted reduced growth under both scenarios, and M was projected to increase by about 0.10. It is unclear how reduced growth and increased mortality may influence population productivity or life history adaptation in the future, but our results may inform stock assessment models to assess those trade-offs.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

Conference Paper↗