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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources

USGS2008

Regional nitrate and pesticide trends in ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California

Protection of ground water for present and future use requires monitoring and understanding of the mechanisms controlling long-term quality of ground water. In this study, spatial and temporal trends in concentrations of nitrate and pesticides in ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, were evaluated to determine the long-term effects of agricultural and urban development on regional ground-water quality. Trends in concentrations of nitrate, the nematocide 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane, and the herbicide simazine during the last two decades are generally consistent with known nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide use and with the position of the well networks in the regional ground-water flow system. Concentrations of nitrate and pesticides are higher in the shallow part of the aquifer system where domestic wells are typically screened, whereas concentrations are lower in the deep part of the aquifer system where public-supply wells are typically screened. Attenuation processes do not seem to significantly affect concentrations. Historical data indicate that concentrations of nitrate have increased since the 1950s in the shallow and deep parts of the aquifer system. Concentrations of nitrate and detection of pesticides in the deep part of the aquifer system will likely increase as the proportion of highly affected water contributed to these wells increases with time. Because of the time of travel between the water table and the deep part of the aquifer system, current concentrations in public-supply wells likely reflect the effects of 40- to 50-yr-old management practices. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2009

Selected ground-water-quality data in Pennsylvania - 1979-2006

This study, by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PADEP), provides a compilation of ground-water-quality data for a 28-year period (January 1, 1979, through December 31, 2006) based on water samples from wells and springs. The data are from 14 source agencies or programs—Borough of Carroll Valley, Chester County Health Department, Montgomery County Health Department, Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection 2002 Pennsylvania Water-Quality Assessment, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Agency Act 537 Sewage Facilities Program, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection-Ambient and Fixed Station Network, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection–North-Central Region, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection–South-Central Region, Pennsylvania Drinking Water Information System, Pennsylvania Topographic and Geologic Survey, Susquehanna River Basin Commission, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The ground-water-quality data from the different source agencies or programs varied in type and number of analyses; however, the analyses are represented by 11 major analyte groups: antibiotics, major ions, microorganisms (bacteria, viruses, and other microorganisms), minor ions (including trace elements), nutrients (predominantly nitrate and nitrite as nitrogen), pesticides, pharmaceuticals, radiochemicals (predominantly radon or radium), volatiles (volatile organic compounds), wastewater compounds, and water characteristics (field measurements, predominantly field pH, field specific conductance, and hardness). For the USGS and the PADEP–North-Central Region, the pesticide analyte group was broken down into fungicides, herbicides, and insecticides. Summary maps show the areal distribution of wells and springs with ground-water-quality data statewide by source agency or program. Summary data tables by source agency or program provide information on the number of wells and springs and samples collected for each of the 35 watersheds and analyte groups. The number of wells and springs sampled for ground-water-quality data varies considerably across Pennsylvania. Of the 24,772 wells and springs sampled, the greatest concentration of wells and springs is in the southeast (Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, and Philadelphia Counties) and in the northwest (Erie County). The number of wells and springs sampled is relatively sparse in north-central (Cameron, Elk, Forest, McKean, Potter, and Warren Counties) Pennsylvania. Little to no data are available for approximately one-fourth of the state. Nutrients and water characteristics were the most frequently sampled major analyte groups—43,025 and 30,583 samples, respectively. Minor ions and major ions were the next most frequently sampled major analyte groups–26,972 and 13,115 samples, respectively. For the remaining 10 major analyte groups, the number of samples collected ranged from a low of 24 samples (antibiotic compounds) to a high of approximately 4,674 samples (microorganisms). The number of samples that exceeded a maximum contaminant level (MCL) or secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) by major analyte group also varied. Of the 4,674 samples in the microorganism analyte group, 50.2 percent had water that exceeded an MCL. Of the 4,528 samples collected and analyzed for volatile organic compounds, 23.5 percent exceeded an MCL. Other major analyte groups that frequently exceeded MCLs or SMCLs included major ions (18,343 samples and a 27.7 percent exceedence), minor ions (26,972 samples, 44.7 percent exceedence), pesticides (4,868 samples, 0.7 percent exceedence), water characteristics (30,583 samples, 19.3 percent exceedence), and radiochemicals (1,866 samples, 9.6 percent exceedence). Samples collected and analyzed for antibiotics (24 samples), fungicides (1,273 samples), herbicides (1,470 samples), insecticides (1,424 samples), nutrients (43,025 samples), pharmaceuticals (28 samples), and wastewater compounds (328 samples) had the lowest exceedences of 0.0, 2.4, 1.2, <1.0, 8.3, 0.0, and <1.0 percent, respectively.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2004

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems. Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO 2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency, but the consequences of this growth enhancement for the ecosystem are unknown.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1996

Water Budget and the Effects of Land-Use Changes on Ground-Water Recharge, Oahu, Hawaii

Detailed water budgets calculated for southern and southeastern Oahu are used with a geographic information system to develop simplified methods for estimating areal water budgets for predevelopment and mid-1980's land use. The methods were applied to estimate water budgets for the Waianae area of western Oahu, and for north-central, southern, and southeastern Oahu. A water budget was calculated for windward Oahu by developing a separate geographic information system model of the area. The water budgets for these areas were combined into a single water budget for the entire island. The geographic information system model was used to calculate mid-1980's ground-water recharge to small areas of specific interest and the distribution of recharge by geologic formation. The most significant changes in the water budget and ground-water recharge have occurred in north-central and southern Oahu as a result of large-scale agricultural development and urbanization by the mid-1980's. Runoff increased by 23 million gallons per day in southern Oahu where extensive urban areas have been developed. Evapotranspiration increased by 8 million gallons per day in southern Oahu and 28 million gallons per day in north-central Oahu as result of the 146 million gallons per day of agricultural irrigation. Ground-water recharge increased in both areas: by about 56 million gallons per day in southern Oahu and by about 32 million gallons per day in north-central Oahu. Predevelopment ground-water recharge to Oahu was an estimated 792 million gallons per day. Changes in land-use practices in the mid-1980's resulted in an estimated island-wide recharge of 880 million gallons per day.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2014

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model (AIWUM) version 1.0—An agricultural water-use model developed for the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 1999–2017

Water use is a critical and often uncertain component of quantifying any water budget and securing reliable and sustainable water supplies. Recent water-level declines in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP), especially in the central part of the Mississippi Delta, pose a threat to water sustainability. Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model (AIWUM) 1.0, one of the first national agricultural water-use models that provides water use at the scale of most groundwater models, was developed and compared to other reported and estimated aquaculture and irrigation water-use values within the MAP study area for 1999 through 2017 to improve water-use estimates needed as input to a hydrologic decision-support system in the MAP. Results indicate annual total water-use estimates from 1999 through 2017 ranged from about 5 to 13 billion gallons per day and, on average, a majority of the water use was applied to rice (about 51 percent), followed by soybeans (about 26 percent), and less than (<) 10 percent each was applied to aquaculture, corn, cotton, and other crops. Comparisons indicated that annual total water-use estimates from AIWUM 1.0 were smaller than or comparable to all other sources of water-use data. Although there is disagreement at the monthly timescale in estimates in the Mississippi Delta within each part of the growing season, the annual total water use is comparable between AIWUM 1.0 and the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater model 2.1. Estimates from AIWUM 1.0 could be used in models at all scales (for example, local, regional, national) and could provide a nationally consistent methodology in estimating water use driven by regional crop-specific withdrawal rates.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

USGS1996

Physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the Charlotte Harbor basin and estuarine system in southwestern Florida: A summary of the 1982-89 U.S. Geological Survey Charlotte Harbor assessment and other studies

The Charlotte Harbor estuarine system, having a surface area of about 270 square miles, averages about 7 feet in depth and is connected to deep water of the Gulf of Mexico through several passes and inlets between barrier islands. Three major rivers flow into the estuary--the Peace, the Myakka, and the Caloosahatchee. Freshwater and tidal flushing transport nutrients and other constituents from the basin through the estuary into the gulf. Flushing characteristics were evaluated using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model indicated that the time required to flush injected dye (simulated) from some subareas of the harbor was longer for reduced freshwater inflow than for typical freshwater inflow. After 30 days of simulation of reduced freshwater inflow, 42 percent of the dye injected into the upper harbor remained in the upper harbor, compared to 28 percent for typical freshwater inflow. The Charlotte Harbor estuary is usually well mixed or partially mixed in the vertical, but vertical salinity stratification does occur, primarily during late summer when freshwater inflows are greatest. A box model was developed that incorporated vertically averaged salinities to account indirectly for three-dimensional transport processes associated with vertical stratification. The box model predicts that under high (7,592 cubic feet per second) and average (2,470 cubic feet per second) freshwater inflows from the Peace and Myakka Rivers, 50 percent of the original water (present at the start of the model run) would be flushed from the northern part of the estuarine system into the Gulf of Mexico in 10 days and 20 days, respectively. The distribution of plant nutrients in the Charlotte Harbor Estuary is affected by nutrient inputs, freshwater and tidal flushing, mixing, and recycling processes in the estuary. The distributions of total phosphorus and orthophosphate are affected mainly by river input and physical mixing. The distribution of ammonia nitrogen is variable and is related more to recycling within the estuary than to input from the rivers. Ammonia concentrations increase in deeper water, probably in response to vertical salinity stratification and low concentrations of dissolved oxygen that foster regeneration of ammonia from bottom sediments. The distribution of nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen is nonconservative--concentrations are high in the rivers and decrease more rapidly in the estuary than expected due to dilution with sea water, probably because of phytoplankton uptake. Phytoplankton productivity and biomass are usually greatest during late summer near the mouths of the tidal rivers when freshwater inflow and nutrient loading are greatest. The highly colored freshwater runoff reduces light penetration and phytoplankton productivity in regions of the estuary where salinity is less than about 10 parts per thousand, but the nutrient-rich, colored water is diluted by seawater at midsalinities (10-20 parts per thousand) so that availability of light increases and inorganic nitrogen concentrations are still high enough to stimulate productivity and growth of phytoplankton. In much of the estuary, salinity is greater than 20 parts per thousand, and availability of inorganic nitrogen, not light, limits productivity and growth. Although the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system is relatively undisturbed, much of its basin has been altered by human activities. Streamflow decreased substantially during 1931-84 in parts of the Peace River, probably because of ground-water withdrawals in the basin. Nutrient concentrations generally increased in the rivers during 1970-85, because of an increase in the flow of wastewater and agricultural runoff. The concentrations of phosphorus are naturally high in the Peace River because of extensive phosphate deposits in the basin. The phosphate deposits also are relatively rich in radionuclides of the uranium-238 series, including radium-226. In the upper basin, these deposits are exposed in the riverbed. Extensive phosphate mining and processing have exposed additional deposits to surface runoff. Periodic spills of phosphate sediments (slimes) have contributed additional phosphorus and radium-226 to the river and estuary. A single spill can contribute a phosphorus load equal to the annual loading in the Peace River at Arcadia. The projected increase in population in the basin by the year 2020 would generate an additional 60 million gallons per day of domestic wastewater over that generated during 1980, which would increase nitrogen loading in the basin by more than 3 tons per day. Intensified agricultural and industrial developments, particularly expanding citrus production and phosphate mining, could generate additional loads of nutrients and a variety of inorganic and organic contaminants. Increased inputs of nutrients, particularly nitrogen, could encourage growth and increase abundance of phytoplankton and benthic and epiphytic algae. If water were less colored as a result of reduced freshwater inflow, undesirable algal growth could be exacerbated because of increased availability of light. Increased abundance of phytoplankton and other algae could likely change dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the estuary, resulting in greater day-to-night fluctuations and the possible depletion of dissolved oxygen in deep water. At the present time, near-anaerobic conditions occur for days or weeks in the deep water (more than 9 feet) of the northern harbor during late summer. These conditions could become more persistent with time and over wider areas, if phytoplankton and other algae increase in abundance and in their contribution to benthic oxygen demand. An increased abundance of phytoplankton and other algae also would reduce light penetration and adversely affect seagrasses.

Florida↗

USGS2017

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Appalachian National Scenic Trail vegetation mapping project

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program classifies, describes, and maps existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, NPS Northeast Temperate Network, and NPS Appalachian National Scenic Trail (APPA) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of APPA for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types within the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) of APPA and to determine how best to map the vegetation types by using aerial imagery. Analyses of data from 1,618 vegetation plots were used to describe USNVC associations of APPA. Data from 289 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation associations and the application of vegetation associations to a sample set of map polygons. Data from 269 validation sites were collected to assess vegetation mapping prior to submitting the vegetation map for accuracy assessment (AA). Data from 3,265 AA sites were collected, of which 3,204 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer. The collective of these datasets affirmed 280 USNVC associations for the APPA vegetation mapping project. To map the vegetation and land cover of APPA, 169 map classes were developed. The 169 map classes consist of 150 that represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types in the USNVC, 11 that represent cultural (agricultural and developed) vegetation types in the USNVC, 5 that represent natural landscapes with catastrophic disturbance or some other modification to natural vegetation preventing accurate classification in the USNVC, and 3 that represent nonvegetated water (non-USNVC). Features were interpreted from viewing 4-band digital aerial imagery using digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems (GIS). (Digital aerial imagery was collected each fall during 2009–11 to capture leaf-phenology change of hardwood trees across the latitudinal range of APPA.) The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in GIS. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5-hectare (ha) or 0.25-ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type or scenario; however, polygon units were mapped to 0.1 ha for alpine vegetation. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables provide locations and support data to USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map layer), vegetation plots, verification sites, validation sites, AA sites, project boundary extent and zones, and aerial image centers and flight lines. The feature-class layer and related tables of the vegetation map layer provide 30,395 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 110,919.7 ha, with an average polygon size of 3.6 ha; the vegetation map coincides closely with the administrative boundary for APPA. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer of the map classes representing USNVC natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 28,242 polygons (92.9% of polygons) and cover 106,413.0 ha (95.9%) of the map extent for APPA. The map layer indicates APPA to be 92.4% forest and woodland (102,480.8 ha), 1.7% shrubland (1866.3 ha), and 1.8% herbaceous cover (2,065.9 ha). Map classes representing park-special vegetation (undefined in the USNVC) apply to 58 polygons (0.2% of polygons) and cover 404.3 ha (0.4%) of the map extent. Map classes representing USNVC cultural types apply to 1,777 polygons (5.8% of polygons) and cover 2,516.3 ha (2.3%) of the map extent. Map classes representing nonvegetated water (non-USNVC) apply to 332 polygons (1.1% of polygons) and cover 1,586.2 ha (1.4%) of the map extent.

Appalachian National Scenic Trail↗

USGS2010

Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, Nevada and California: Hydrogeologic framework and transient groundwater flow model

A numerical three-dimensional (3D) transient groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site and at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Decades of study of aspects of the groundwater flow system and previous less extensive groundwater flow models were incorporated and reevaluated together with new data to provide greater detail for the complex, digital model. A 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) was developed from digital elevation models, geologic maps, borehole information, geologic and hydrogeologic cross sections, and other 3D models to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs). Structural features, such as faults and fractures, that affect groundwater flow also were added. The HFM represents Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline and sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic to Cenozoic intrusive rocks, Cenozoic volcanic tuffs and lavas, and late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) region in 27 HGUs. Information from a series of investigations was compiled to conceptualize and quantify hydrologic components of the groundwater flow system within the DVRFS model domain and to provide hydraulic-property and head-observation data used in the calibration of the transient-flow model. These studies reevaluated natural groundwater discharge occurring through evapotranspiration (ET) and spring flow; the history of groundwater pumping from 1913 through 1998; groundwater recharge simulated as net infiltration; model boundary inflows and outflows based on regional hydraulic gradients and water budgets of surrounding areas; hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth; and water levels appropriate for regional simulation of prepumped and pumped conditions within the DVRFS model domain. Simulation results appropriate for the regional extent and scale of the model were provided by acquiring additional data, by reevaluating existing data using current technology and concepts, and by refining earlier interpretations to reflect the current understanding of the regional groundwater flow system. Groundwater flow in the Death Valley region is composed of several interconnected, complex groundwater flow systems. Groundwater flow occurs in three subregions in relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper, regional flow paths. Regional groundwater flow is predominantly through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence affected by complex geologic structures from regional faulting and fracturing that can enhance or impede flow. Spring flow and ET are the dominant natural groundwater discharge processes. Groundwater also is withdrawn for agricultural, commercial, and domestic uses. Groundwater flow in the DVRFS was simulated using MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey 3D finitedifference modular groundwater flow modeling code that incorporates a nonlinear least-squares regression technique to estimate aquifer parameters. The DVRFS model has 16 layers of defined thickness, a finite-difference grid consisting of 194 rows and 160 columns, and uniform cells 1,500 meters (m) on each side. Prepumping conditions (before 1913) were used as the initial conditions for the transient-state calibration. The model uses annual stress periods with discrete recharge and discharge components. Recharge occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation and runoff on high mountain ranges and from a small amount of underflow from adjacent basins. Discharge occurs primarily through ET and spring discharge (both simulated as drains) and water withdrawal by pumping and, to a lesser amount, by underflow to adjacent basins simulated by constant-head boundaries. All parameter values estimated by the regression are reasonable and within the range of expected values. The simulated hydraulic heads of the final calibrated transient model generally fit observed heads reasonably well (residuals with absolute values less than 10 meters) with two exceptions: in most areas of nearly flat hydraulic gradient the fit is considered moderate (residuals with absolute values of 10 to 20 meters), and in areas of steep hydraulic gradient along the Eleana Range and western part of Yucca Flat, southern part of the Owlshead Mountains, southern part of the Bullfrog Hills, and the north-northwestern part of the model domain (residuals with absolute values greater than 20 meters). Groundwater discharge residuals are fairly random, with as many areas where simulated flows are less than observed flows as areas where simulated flows are greater. The highest unweighted groundwater discharge residuals occur at Death Valley, Sarcobatus Flat (northeastern area), Tecopa, and early observations at Manse Spring in Pahrump Valley. High weighted-discharge residuals were computed in Indian Springs Valley and parts of Death Valley. Most of these inaccuracies in head and discharge can be attributed to insufficient representation of the hydrogeology in the HFM and(or) discharge estimates, misrepresentation of water levels, and(or) model error associated with grid-cell size. The model represents the large and complex groundwater flow system of the Death Valley region at a greater degree of refinement and accuracy than has been possible previously. The representation of detail provided by the 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model and the numerical groundwater flow model enabled greater spatial accuracy in every model parameter. The lithostratigraphy and structural effects of the hydrogeologic framework; recharge estimates from simulated net infiltration; discharge estimates from ET, spring flow, and pumping; and boundary inflow and outflow estimates all were reevaluated, some additional data were collected, and accuracy was improved. Uncertainty in the results of the flow model simulations can be reduced by improving on the quality, interpretation, and representation of the water-level and discharge observations used to calibrate the model and improving on the representation of the HGU geometries, the spatial variability of HGU material properties, the flow model physical framework, and the hydrologic conditions.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2003

Environmental fate and effects of the lampricide Bayluscide: A review

Bayluscide is an additive to TFM that increases the effectiveness of TFM as a lampricide. A review of the literature was undertaken to determine the environmental fate and effects of Bayluscide. Niclosamide (2′, 5-dichloro-4′-nitrosalicylanilide), the active ingredient of Bayluscide, degrades rapidly in natural water and sediment systems, however, the rate of degradation is very slow in autoclaved samples. This difference suggests that degradation under laboratory conditions is dependent on microbial activity and hydrolysis plays a minor role in degradation of niclosamide. The major degradation product of niclosamide has been reported to be aminoniclosamide (2′,5-dichloro-4′-aminosalicylanilide), which represented more than 50% of the residues extractable from sediments. Significantly more of the chemical is adsorbed to sediments with higher organic content and at lower pH's. The mobility of niclosamide in soil can be characterized as slight to medium; the estimated leaching distance would range from 0 to > 25 cm depending on the soil type and pH. The active ingredient of Bayluscide (niclosamide) is decomposed by ultra-violet light depending on the intensity and duration of the exposure. The uptake of residues by most invertebrates exposed to 14 C-niclosamide is fairly rapid and equilibrium is reached within 24 h. About 90% of the accumulated residues were lost within 48 h after the organisms were transferred to clean flowing water. As with invertebrates, fish rapidly accumulate and eliminate residues of niclosamide. Three distinct residues were isolated from the extracts of edible fillet tissue; parent niclosamide, the glucuronide conjugate of niclosamide, and the sulfate ester of niclosamide. Aquatic plants and agricultural crops do not appear to be adversely affected at concentrations of Bayluscide used for lamprey or snail control. Mayflies ( Hexagenia sp .). tend to be susceptible to TFM, but are relatively resistant to the effects of exposure to Bayluscide. Bayluscide was originally developed as a molluscicide to eliminate snails. Therefore, it is not surprising that mollusks are extremely sensitive to Bayluscide. Oral, dermal, and ocular administration of Bayluscide to mammals resulted in no clinical signs of systemic toxicity. Tests of the chronic effects of Bayluscide indicated that it is not mutagenic or carcinogenic. Bayluscide is not persistent in the environment; it breaks down in natural water and sediment systems through hydrolysis, photolysis, and microbial degradation. Given the limited use and tight control maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service during applications of lampricides, Bayluscide presents minimal risk to human health and safety of the environment.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Availability and distribution of low flow in Anahola Stream, Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi

Anahola Stream is a perennial stream in northeast Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi, that supports agricultural, domestic, and cultural uses within its drainage basin. Beginning in the late 19th century, Anahola streamflow was diverted by Makee Sugar Company at altitudes of 840 feet (upper intake) and 280 feet (lower intake) for irrigating sugarcane in the Keālia area. When sugarcane cultivation in the Keālia area ceased in 1988, part of the Makee Sugar Company’s surface-water collection system (Makee diversion system) in the Anahola drainage basin was abandoned. In an effort to better manage available surface-water resources, the State of Hawaiʻi Department of Hawaiian Home Lands is considering using the existing ditches in the Anahola Stream drainage basin to provide irrigation water for Native Hawaiian farmers in the area. To provide information needed for successful management of the surface-water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the availability and distribution of natural low flow in Anahola Stream and also collected low-flow data in Goldfish Stream, a stream that discharges into Kaneha Reservoir, which served as a major collection point for the Makee diversion system. Biological surveys of Anahola Stream were conducted as part of a study to determine the distribution of native and nonnative aquatic stream fauna. Results of the biological surveys indicated the presence of the following native aquatic species in Anahola Stream: ʻoʻopu ʻakupa (Sandwich Island sleeper) and ʻoʻopu naniha (Tear-drop goby) in the lower stream reaches surveyed; and ʻoʻopu nākea (Pacific river goby), ʻoʻopu nōpili (Stimpson’s goby), and ʻōpae kalaʻole (Mountain shrimp) in the middle and upper stream reaches surveyed. Nonnative aquatic species were found in all of the surveyed stream reaches along Anahola Stream. The availability and distribution of natural low flow were determined using a combination of discharge measurements made from February 2011 to May 2012 at low-flow partial-record and seepage-run stations established at locations of interest along study-area streams. Upstream of the upper intake, the estimated natural (undiverted) median flow in Anahola Stream is 2.7 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 0.97 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. About 0.7 mile upstream of the lower intake and downstream from the confluence with Keaʻoʻopu Stream, the estimated natural (undiverted) median flow in Anahola Stream is 6.3 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 2.7 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. In Goldfish Stream, about 0.4 mile upstream from the point of discharge into Kaneha Reservoir, the estimated natural median flow is 0.54 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 0.23 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. The discharge estimates are representative of low-flow conditions in the study-area streams, and they are applicable to the base period (water years 1961–2011) over which they have been computed. The distribution of natural low flow in Anahola Stream was characterized through data collected during wet- and dry-season seepage runs. Seepage-run results show that Anahola Stream was generally a gaining stream under natural low-flow conditions. During the wet-season seepage run, Anahola Stream at the station located upstream of tributary Kaʻalula Stream had more than five times the flow that was measured upstream from the upper intake. The estimated total gain (including tributary inflow) in the 6.1-mile seepage-run reach was 6.97 million gallons per day; about 42 percent of that gain was groundwater discharge to the main channel of Anahola Stream. During the dry-season seepage run, about 34 percent of the estimated total gain of 3.93 million gallons per day in the same seepage-run reach was groundwater discharge to the main channel of Anahola Stream. A 15-percent seepage loss was estimated in a 0.3-mile reach downstream from the confluence of Anahola and Keaʻoʻopu Streams. The report summarizes scenarios that describe (1) surface-water availability under regulated conditions of Anahola Stream if the upper and lower intakes are restored in the future; and (2) amount of flow available for agricultural use at the upper intake under a variety of potential instream-flow standards that may be established by the State of Hawaiʻi for the protection of instream uses.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2003

Environmental fate and effects of the lampricide bayluscide: a review

Bayluscide is an additive to TFM that increases the effectiveness of TFM as a lampricide. A review of the literature was undertaken to determine the environmental fate and effects of Bayluscide. Niclosamide (2', 5-dichloro-4'-nitrosalicylanilide), the active ingredient of Bayluscide, degrades rapidly in natural water and sediment systems, however, the rate of degradation is very slow in autoclaved samples. This difference suggests that degradation under laboratory conditions is dependent on microbial activity and hydrolysis plays a minor role in degradation of niclosamide. The major degradation product of niclosamide has been reported to be aminoniclosamide (2',5-dichloro-4'-aminosalicylanilide), which represented more than 50% of the residues extractable from sediments. Significantly more of the chemical is adsorbed to sediments with higher organic content and at lower pH's. The mobility of niclosamide in soil can be characterized as slight to medium; the estimated leaching distance would range from 0 to > 25 cm depending on the soil type and pH. The active ingredient of Bayluscide (niclosamide) is decomposed by ultra-violet light depending on the intensity and duration of the exposure. The uptake of residues by most invertebrates exposed to super(14)C-niclosamide is fairly rapid and equilibrium is reached within 24 h. About 90% of the accumulated residues were lost within 48 h after the organisms were transferred to clean flowing water. As with invertebrates, fish rapidly accumulate and eliminate residues of niclosamide. Three distinct residues were isolated from the extracts of edible fillet tissue; parent niclosamide, the glucuronide conjugate of niclosamide, and the sulfate ester of niclosamide. Aquatic plants and agricultural crops do not appear to be adversely affected at concentrations of Bayluscide used for lamprey or snail control. Mayflies (Hexagenia sp.). tend to be susceptible to TFM, but are relatively resistant to the effects of exposure to Bayluscide. Bayluscide was originally developed as a molluscicide to eliminate snails. Therefore, it is not surprising that mollusks are extremely sensitive to Bayluscide. Oral, dermal, and ocular administration of Bayluscide to mammals resulted in no clinical signs of systemic toxicity. Tests of the chronic effects of Bayluscide indicated that it is not mutagenic or carcinogenic. Bayluscide is not persistent in the environment; it breaks down in natural water and sediment systems through hydrolysis, photolysis, and microbial degradation. Given the limited use and tight control maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service during applications of lampricides, Bayluscide presents minimal risk to human health and safety of the environment.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2023

Groundwater-flow model of the Treasure Valley, southwestern Idaho, 1986–2015

Most of the population of the Treasure Valley and the surrounding area of southwestern Idaho and easternmost Oregon depends on groundwater for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells. Current and projected rapid population growth in the area has caused concern about the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Water Resource Board and the Idaho Department of Water Resources, began a project to construct a numerical groundwater-flow model of the westernmost portion of the western Snake River Plain aquifer system, called the Treasure Valley. The development of the model was guided by several objectives, including: to improve the understanding of groundwater and surface water interactions; to facilitate conjunctive water management; to provide a tool for water resources planning; and to provide a tool for water allocation. The model was constructed with a spatial scale and level of detail that aimed to meet these objectives while balancing the sometimes-competing goals of fast runtimes, numerical stability, usability, and parsimony. The Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model (TVGWFM) is a three-dimensional finite-difference numerical model constructed using MODFLOW 6 (Langevin and others, 2017, Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 Groundwater Flow Model: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chap. A55, 197 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A55 ). The model covers the westernmost portion of the western Snake River Plain and is discretized into a regular grid of 64 by 65 cells with a side length of 1 mile and 6 layers of varying depth and active area. A historical model period was developed consisting of 360 month-long stress periods for 1986–2015. The model builds upon previous modeling efforts by adding a transient period, incorporating new head and discharge observations to constrain parameters, incorporating information from the hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) of Bartolino (2019, Hydrogeologic framework of the Treasure Valley and surrounding area, Idaho and Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5138, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195138 ) and incorporating refined estimates of evapotranspiration and irrigation classification of lands in the study area. The TVGWFM includes all significant components of recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Inflows include canal seepage, irrigation and precipitation recharge, mountain-front recharge, rivers and stream seepage, and seepage from Lake Lowell. Outflows include discharge to agricultural drainage ditches, discharge to rivers and streams, pumping, and discharge to Lake Lowell. Each recharge or discharge component is represented separately using individual MODFLOW 6 packages. Parameter values were derived with a combination of trial-and-error steps and automated parameter estimation using PEST software (Doherty, J.E., 2005, PEST, model-independent parameter estimation–User manual: Watermark Numerical Computing, https://pesthomepage.org/documentation ). Parameter estimates were constrained with several types of observation data, including water levels, water level changes, vertical water level differences, drain discharges, change in drain discharges, river seepage, seepage from Lake Lowell, and change in seepage from Lake Lowell. Material properties from the hydrogeologic framework were also used to assign the minimum and maximum values of some parameters. A final parameter realization was reached that minimized residuals between the observed and modelled values for the various observation groups. Mean residuals for the observation groups were 15.4 feet (ft) for water levels, 0.2 ft for water level changes, 19.4 ft for vertical water level differences, −3.9 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) for drain discharges, 0.0 ft 3 /s for changes in drain discharge, 45.0 ft 3 /s for river seepage, −40.1 ft 3 /s for Lake Lowell seepage, and 126.3 ft 3 /s for changes in Lake Lowell seepage. The quality of the model’s fit to observations varied spatially, with notable areas of under- or over-simulation of water levels present to the northwest and southwest of Lake Lowell, in the foothills along the eastern model boundary, and near the City of Eagle. Trends were observed in the residuals of many of the observation groups, indicating that the model is missing or not fully reproducing some phenomena that are observed in the system. The TVGWFM can be used as a tool for water resource planning, for understanding the interactions of groundwater and surface water at a basin scale, and for facilitating conjunctive management, but may lack the precision needed for water rights administration at a local scale. Additional sources of uncertainty or limitations of the model are noted. The quantity and spatial distribution of canal seepage and infiltration of irrigation water recharge, the largest sources of recharge to the system, are unknown and approximated indirectly. There is poor understanding of how canal seepage and incidental recharge change as land is converted from agricultural (irrigated) to suburban (semi-irrigated). These uncertainties will affect any scenarios that investigate changes to land use or irrigation practices. Finally, the model has relatively high water-level residuals around and to the southwest of Lake Lowell and should not be used to estimate water level effects in that region. The model was built with multiple, broadly expressed objectives and did not optimize performance for specific uses. However, the model and the tools included in an associated data release provide ample flexibility to improve the model for future uses. Adjustments and improvements could be made by refining the model in an area of interest, collecting additional calibration data, applying more rigorous boundary conditions, or re-estimating model parameters to optimize model performance for a specific model forecast.

Idaho↗

USGS2000

Comparison of nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in samples from monitoring and public-supply wells, Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, southern New Jersey

The number and total concentration of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) per sample were significantly greater in water from public-supply wells than in water from shallow and moderate-depth monitoring wells in the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Glassboro area of southern New Jersey. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate (as nitrogen) and the number and total concentration of pesticides per sample were statistically similar in samples from shallow and moderate-depth monitoring wells and those from public-supply wells. VOCs in ground water typically are derived from point sources, which commonly exist in urban areas and which result in spatially variable contaminant concentrations near the water table. Because larger volumes of water are withdrawn from public-supply wells than from monitoring wells, their contributing areas are larger and, therefore, they are more likely to intercept water flowing from VOC point sources. Additionally, public-supply wells intercept flow paths that span a large temporal interval. Public-supply wells in the Glassboro study area withdraw water flowing along short paths, which contains VOCs that recently entered the aquifer system, and water flowing along relatively long paths, which contains VOCs that originated from the degradation of parent compounds or that are associated with past land uses. Because the volume of water withdrawn from monitoring wells is small and because shallow monitoring wells are screened near the water table, they generally intercept only relatively short flow paths. Therefore, samples from these wells represent relatively recent, discrete time intervals and contain both fewer VOCs and a lower total VOC concentration than samples from public-supply wells. Nitrate and pesticides in ground water typically are derived from nonpoint sources, which commonly are found in both agricultural and urban areas and typically result in lowlevel, relatively uniform concentrations near the water table. Because nonpoint sources are diffuse and because processes such as degradation or sorption/dispersion do not occur at rates sufficient to prevent detection of these constituents in parts of the aquifer used for domestic and public supply in the study area, concentrations of nitrate and pesticides and numbers of pesticide compounds are likely to be similar in samples from shallow monitoring wells and samples from public-supply wells. Results of a comparison of (1) the general characteristics of, and water-quality data from, public-supply wells in the Glassboro study area to available data from public-supply wells screened in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system outside the study area, and (2) land-use settings, soil characteristics, and aquifer properties in and outside the study area indicate that the findings of this study likely are applicable to the entire extent of the Kirkwood- Cohansey aquifer system in southern New Jersey.

New Jersey↗

USGS2023

Simulating groundwater flow in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain with a focus on the Mississippi Delta

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain has become one of the most important agricultural regions in the United States but relies heavily on groundwater for irrigation. On average, more than 12 billion gallons are withdrawn daily from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Declining groundwater levels, especially in the Delta region of northwest Mississippi and the Cache and Grand Prairie regions of eastern Arkansas, have led to concerns about future sustainability. The U.S. Geological Survey Mississippi Alluvial Plain Project is focused on quantifying the groundwater system in the alluvial plain and the response of groundwater resources to future development. A key objective of the project is to provide updated groundwater flow models supported by extensive data collection and analyses. MODFLOW 6, PEST++, and several open-source python packages were used to develop a simplified, faster running version of the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study model that can provide boundary conditions for local inset models, including the Mississippi Delta model described in this report. An automated workflow was used for model construction, history matching, and development of baseline future climate scenarios. The models incorporate information from a Soil-Water-Balance code simulation of the terrestrial water balance, metering-based estimates of water use from thousands of wells, measured and estimated streamflow and stages, and the largest airborne electromagnetic survey flown to date in the United States. Baseline scenarios for the Mississippi Delta under potential future climates were constructed using recharge, surface runoff and irrigation pumping forcings from a future version of the Soil-Water-Balance model, driven by downscaled temperature and precipitation output from 10 general circulation model simulations, including high and moderate carbon emissions pathways. Results indicate a complex water balance that varies in time and space in terms of the terrestrial recharge, stream leakage, and regional groundwater flow components, which are affected by seasonal forcings, human activity, and alluvial geomorphology. The general circulation model outputs indicate a continued rise in average temperatures but no clear precipitation trend. Increased crop water demand is anticipated from the higher temperatures, resulting in increased irrigation withdrawals to sustain current levels of irrigated agriculture. Simulated drawdowns in groundwater levels at the mid-21st century vary greatly. Under moderate or wet climate scenarios, and in parts of the aquifer that are well connected to surface water, little to no additional drawdown is anticipated. Under dry or warm scenarios, drawdowns of as much as 10 meters or more are possible in parts of the aquifer that are relatively disconnected from surface water. Under dry or warm scenarios, the portion of the Delta with greater than 60 feet of saturated thickness could be reduced from near 100 percent currently (2018) to 80–90 percent by mid-century. Future simulations with the model could include alternative management scenarios to identify options for improving groundwater sustainability. The automated model construction workflows are designed to facilitate regular updating, making this a “living” framework that the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality and other stakeholders can use for adaptive management going forward.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS1983

Infrared remote sensing for monitoring rainfall

Evaluations of thermal infrared satellite data from TIROS-N and the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) showed that rainfall distribution patterns could be reliably detected on images acquired up to at least three days after the event. The temperature relationship decreased eight days after the event when soil variations influenced the signal. A time-series analysis reduced thermal variability normally observed over diverse landscapes and increased the sensitivity of the procedures. The method of repetitive low-resolution thermal observations could be operationally employed over large geographic regions with currently available satellite systems. The results would augment the existing rain gauge stations by increasing the spatial sensitivity and the reliability of detection and mapping individual rainfall events.

Agricultural Water Management↗

USGS2025

Virulence evolution of a salmonid virus following a host jump

Emergent viral diseases remain a critical obstacle to welfare across landscapes and species, encompassing humans, wildlife, and agriculture. Following a jump to a novel host, the severity of disease resulting from infection is a critical determinant of the overall emergent pathogen threat. Conventional wisdom posits that virulence, defined here as host mortality, attenuates to intermediate levels as a pathogen adapts to a novel host, but this is largely based on data from just one system, myxoma virus, which was intentionally introduced as a biocontrol agent in rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) in mid-1900s Australia. In this study, we demonstrate that infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), which made a host jump from sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka , ancestral host) to rainbow trout ( O. mykiss , novel host), has not conformed to classical theory. We quantified virulence in the ancestral and novel hosts using common garden in vivo experiments with 16 archival IHNV isolates collected from 1972-2017, which span the period from shortly after the host jump and the subsequent 45 years of host adaptation. These virus isolates also represent two distinct phylogenetic genogroups, each associated with either the ancestral or novel host. The experiments were replicated across two research facilities, two challenges dosages, and two temperatures. While isolates from the ancestral genogroup showed no temporal change in virulence in either host, isolates from the novel viral genogroup displayed a significant increase in virulence over time in the novel host. Some possible indication of a virus temperature adaption after the host jump was also present. Potential drivers of virulence evolution are discussed. This represents one of only a handful of systems in which the evolution of increased virulence has been empirically characterized after a host jump and subsequent adaptation. It contributes to a growing body of evidence that contradicts the classical case study of myxoma virus attenuation after adaptation.

PLoS Pathogens↗

USGS2014

Population viability and connectivity of the Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus )

In 1992, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) granted Ursus americanus luteolus (Louisiana black bear) threatened status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973, listing loss and fragmentation of habitat as the primary threats. A study was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the University of Tennessee, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, and the USFWS to estimate demographic rates and genetic structure of Louisiana black bear populations; evaluate relations between environmental and anthropogenic factors and demographic, genetic, and movement characteristics of Louisiana black bear populations; and develop data-driven stochastic population projection models to assess long-term persistence of individual subpopulations and the overall black bear population in Louisiana. Data were collected with non-invasive DNA sampling, live capture, winter den visits, and radio monitoring from 2002 to 2012 in the four areas supporting breeding subpopulations in Louisiana: Tensas River Basin (TRB), Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB), Lower Atchafalaya River Basin (LARB), and Three Rivers Complex (TRC). Bears were live trapped and radio collared in the TRB and TRC to estimate survival and reproductive rates, deterministic matrix models were used to estimate asymptotic growth rates, and stochastic population models were used to estimate long-term viability. DNA extracted from hair collected at baited, barbed-wire enclosures in the TRB, UARB, and LARB and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analysis based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods were used to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), per capita recruitment ( γ ), abundance ( N ), realized growth rate ( λ ), and long-term viability. From 2002 to 2012, we radio monitored 86 adult females greater than (>) 2 years old within the TRB, and 43 adult females were monitored in the TRC. The mean annual survival rate estimate ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 for the TRB and from 0.93 to 0.97 for the TRC. Fecundity and yearling recruitment in the TRB were 0.47 and 0.15, respectively, whereas estimates for the TRC were 0.37 and 0.18. Depending on estimated carrying capacity, the strength of the density dependence, level of uncertainty, and the treatment of unresolved signals, persistence probabilities for the TRC subpopulation ranged from 0.295 to 0.999. Estimates of N for females in the TRB ranged from 140 to 163 during 2006–12 when detection heterogeneity was assumed to follow a logistic-normal distribution (Model 1) and from 133 to 158 when a 2-point finite mixture distribution was assumed (Model 2). Annual estimates of γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.16 and from 0 to 0.22, depending on the model, and estimates of φ ranged from 0.87 to 0.93 during that period. In the UARB, estimates of N for females ranged from 25 to 44 during the study period, regardless of heterogeneity model. Estimated γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.41, and φ ranged from 0.88 to 0.90 during that period. Estimated N for females in the LARB was from 78 to 97 from 2010 to 2012 based on Model 1 and from 68 to 84 based on Model 2. Estimates of γ were 0.00 for 2010–11 regardless of heterogeneity model and ranged from 0.24 to 0.31 for 2011–12, depending on the model assumptions. We estimated φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. We estimated Φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, ranging and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. On the basis of vital rate estimates from Model 1 of the CMR analysis, probability of persistence over 100 years for the TRB population was >0.999, 0.975, and 0.958 for process-only, 50-percent (%) credible interval (CI), and 95% CI projections, respectively. Similarly, the probability of persistence based on Model 2 was >0.999, 0.982, and 0.958. For the UARB, probabilities of persistence based on Model 1 were >0.999, 0.971, and 0.958 for process-only, 50% CI, and 95% CI projections, respectively, and 0.993, 0.929, and 0.849 for Model 2. Using the telemetry and reproductive data from the TRC, probabilities of persistence were greater than or equal to 0.95 only for projections based on the most optimistic set of assumptions. Assuming that the dynamics of the TRB, TRC, and UARB populations were independent and using the most pessimistic population-specific persistence probabilities (that is, 0.958, 0.295, and 0.849, respectively), the overall probability of persistence for bears in that population system was 0.996. Genetic methods were used to estimate interchange and structure between subpopulations in Louisiana and in Minnesota (MINN); Mississippi (MISS); and the White River Basin (WRB), Arkansas. Results from the all-population and the WRB–TRB clustering analyses indicate at least five genetically distinct populations. The genetic clustering and migrant analyses combined with capture data provided direct evidence that interchange has occurred from the WRB to the TRB and MISS, from the TRB to MISS, from the UARB to the TRC, and from the TRC to the TRB. Indirect evidence that interchange occurred from the UARB to the TRC and from the UARB to the TRB by way of the TRC was documented. No evidence was found of interchange from any of the subpopulations to the WRB, UARB, or LARB. From April 2010 to April 2012, global positioning system (GPS) radio collars were placed on 8 female and 23 male bears ranging from 1 to 11 years of age to develop a step-selection function model to predict routes and rates of interchange. For both males and females, the probability of a step being selected increased as the distance to natural land cover and agriculture at the end of the step decreased and as distance from roads at the end of a step increased. Of 4,000 correlated random walks, the least potential interchange was between TRB and TRC and between UARB and LARB, but the relative potential for natural interchange between UARB and TRC was high. The step-selection model predicted that dispersals between the LARB and UARB populations were infrequent but possible for males and nearly nonexistent for females. No evidence of natural female dispersal between subpopulations has been documented thus far, which is also consistent with model predictions.

Louisiana↗