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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

USGS2008

Homage to Linnaeus: How many parasites? How many hosts?

Estimates of the total number of species that inhabit the Earth have increased significantly since Linnaeus's initial catalog of 20,000 species. The best recent estimates suggest that there are ≈6 million species. More emphasis has been placed on counts of free-living species than on parasitic species. We rectify this by quantifying the numbers and proportion of parasitic species. We estimate that there are between 75,000 and 300,000 helminth species parasitizing the vertebrates. We have no credible way of estimating how many parasitic protozoa, fungi, bacteria, and viruses exist. We estimate that between 3% and 5% of parasitic helminths are threatened with extinction in the next 50 to 100 years. Because patterns of parasite diversity do not clearly map onto patterns of host diversity, we can make very little prediction about geographical patterns of threat to parasites. If the threats reflect those experienced by avian hosts, then we expect climate change to be a major threat to the relatively small proportion of parasite diversity that lives in the polar and temperate regions, whereas habitat destruction will be the major threat to tropical parasite diversity. Recent studies of food webs suggest that ≈75% of the links in food webs involve a parasitic species; these links are vital for regulation of host abundance and potentially for reducing the impact of toxic pollutants. This implies that parasite extinctions may have unforeseen costs that impact the health and abundance of a large number of free-living species.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2016

Saharan dust nutrients promote Vibrio bloom formation in marine surface waters

Vibrio is a ubiquitous genus of marine bacteria, typically comprising a small fraction of the total microbial community in surface waters, but capable of becoming a dominant taxon in response to poorly characterized factors. Iron (Fe), often restricted by limited bioavailability and low external supply, is an essential micronutrient that can limit Vibrio growth. Vibrio species have robust metabolic capabilities and an array of Fe-acquisition mechanisms, and are able to respond rapidly to nutrient influx, yet Vibrio response to environmental pulses of Fe remains uncharacterized. Here we examined the population growth of Vibrio after natural and simulated pulses of atmospherically transported Saharan dust, an important and episodic source of Fe to tropical marine waters. As a model for opportunistic bacterial heterotrophs, we demonstrated that Vibrio proliferate in response to a broad range of dust-Fe additions at rapid timescales. Within 24 h of exposure, strains of Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio alginolyticus were able to directly use Saharan dust–Fe to support rapid growth. These findings were also confirmed with in situ field studies; arrival of Saharan dust in the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic coincided with high levels of dissolved Fe, followed by up to a 30-fold increase of culturable Vibrio over background levels within 24 h. The relative abundance of Vibrio increased from &sim;1 to &sim;20% of the total microbial community. This study, to our knowledge, is the first to describe Vibrio response to Saharan dust nutrients, having implications at the intersection of marine ecology, Fe biogeochemistry, and both human and environmental health.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2010

Land cover characterization and mapping of continental southeast Asia using multi-resolution satellite sensor data

Land use/land cover change, particularly that of tropical deforestation and forest degradation, has been occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale in Southeast Asia. The rapid rate of economic development, demographics and poverty are believed to be the underlying forces responsible for the change. Accurate and up-to-date information to support the above statement is, however, not available. The available data, if any, are outdated and are not comparable for various technical reasons. Time series analysis of land cover change and the identification of the driving forces responsible for these changes are needed for the sustainable management of natural resources and also for projecting future land cover trajectories. We analysed the multi-temporal and multi-seasonal NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data of 1985/86 and 1992 to (1) prepare historical land cover maps and (2) to identify areas undergoing major land cover transformations (called ‘hot spots’). The identified ‘hot spot’ areas were investigated in detail using high-resolution satellite sensor data such as Landsat and SPOT supplemented by intensive field surveys. Shifting cultivation, intensification of agricultural activities and change of cropping patterns, and conversion of forest to agricultural land were found to be the principal reasons for land use/land cover change in the Oudomxay province of Lao PDR, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Loei province of Thailand, respectively. Moreover, typical land use/land cover change patterns of the ‘hot spot’ areas were also examined. In addition, we developed an operational methodology for land use/land cover change analysis at the national level with the help of national remote sensing institutions.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2013

Emerging methods for the study of coastal ecosystem landscape structure and change

Coastal landscapes are heterogeneous, dynamic, and evolve over a range of time scales due to intertwined climatic, geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and meteorological processes, and are also heavily impacted by human development, commercial activities, and resource extraction. A diversity of complex coastal systems around the globe, spanning glaciated shorelines to tropical atolls, wetlands, and barrier islands are responding to multiple human and natural drivers. Interdisciplinary research based on remote-sensing observations linked to process studies and models is required to understand coastal ecosystem landscape structure and change. Moreover, new techniques for coastal mapping and monitoring are increasingly serving the needs of policy-makers and resource managers across local, regional, and national scales. Emerging remote-sensing methods associated with a diversity of instruments and platforms are a key enabling element of integrated coastal ecosystem studies. These investigations require both targeted and synoptic mapping, and involve the monitoring of formative processes such as hydrodynamics, sediment transport, erosion, accretion, flooding, habitat modification, land-cover change, and biogeochemical fluxes.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2014

An analysis of the global spatial variability of column-averaged CO 2 from SCIAMACHY and its implications for CO 2 sources and sinks

Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are important because of their potential for improving the scientific understanding of global carbon cycle processes and budgets. We present an analysis of the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (denoted XCO 2 ) of the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) retrievals, which were derived from a satellite instrument with relatively long-term records (2003–2009) and with measurements sensitive to the near surface. The spatial-temporal distributions of remotely sensed XCO 2 have significant spatial heterogeneity with about 6–8% variations (367–397 ppm) during 2003–2009, challenging the traditional view that the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric CO 2 is not significant enough (<4%) to have any large effect on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycles. By comparison with surface measurements from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GLOBALVIEW network, significant statistical relationships between XCO 2 and surface CO 2 were found for major ecosystems, with the exception of tropical forest. In addition, when compared with a simulated terrestrial carbon uptake from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) carbon emission inventory, the latitudinal gradient of XCO 2 seasonal amplitude was influenced by the combined effect of terrestrial carbon uptake, carbon emission, and atmospheric transport, suggesting no direct implications for terrestrial carbon sinks. From the investigation of the growth rate of XCO 2 we found that the increase of CO 2 concentration was dominated by temperature in the northern hemisphere (20–90°N) and by precipitation in the southern hemisphere (20–90°S), with the major contribution to global average occurring in the northern hemisphere. These findings indicated that the satellite measurements of atmospheric CO 2 improve not only the estimations of atmospheric inversion, but also the understanding of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and its feedback to atmospheric CO 2 .

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2022

Biostratigraphically significant palynofloras from the Paleocene–Eocene boundary of the USA

Pollen and spores were recovered from the Paleocene Fort Union Formation and Paleocene–Eocene Willwood Formation of the Bighorn Basin (BHB), northwestern Wyoming, USA. In many local stratigraphic sections in the BHB, the base of the Eocene has been identified by the characteristic negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) that marks the beginning of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The palynotaxa from outcrop samples were examined using light microscopy (LM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Seven new species are formally described ( Tricolpites vegrandis , Rousea spatium , Striatricolporites astutus , Striatopollis calidarius , Friedrichipollis geminus , Retistephanocolporites modicrassus and Retistephanocolporites pergrandis ). The temporal and geographic distributions of many of these palynotaxa suggest that hotter and more seasonally dry climates facilitated their northward range shifts during the PETM from the tropics or subtropics of the USA. For the temperate palynotaxa, the hotter and seasonally dry conditions resulted in local extirpation. A re-evaluation of the palynostratigraphic schemes established for the Paleocene–Eocene boundary confirms that the first appearance of Platycarya platycaryoides denotes the Paleocene–Eocene boundary in the Rocky Mountains region. A new Striatopollis calidarius Subzone, associated with early Wasatchian (Wa) Wa-0 and Wa-R faunas, is also recognized for CIE body localities in the BHB.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

A new water temperature modeling approach to predict thermal habitat suitability for nonnative cichlids in Florida rivers

As global temperatures increase, the spatiotemporal arrangement of thermal habitats in Florida rivers may shift, creating the potential for greater dispersal and establishment of nonnative tropical freshwater fishes. To understand how water temperature changes may affect the spatial distribution of these nonnative species, more effective water temperature prediction models are necessary. Currently, most models employ either a generalized air–water temperature relationship or require expensive and complicated tools to measure hydrometeorological factors (e.g. groundwater input). Thus, we developed a novel modeling approach that is accurate, accessible, and cost-effective in allowing fisheries managers to project water temperatures in rivers across Central and North Florida. To characterize the potential for nonnative fishes to spread northward, we evaluated two hardy and abundant species currently found primarily in South Florida: Mayan Cichlid ( Mayaheros urophthalmus ) and Oscar ( Astronotus ocellatus ). Our results show an increase in thermally suitable winter days for both species in 10 of 11 rivers studied, consistent with predicted water temperature warming under 16 climate-change scenarios spanning different levels of air temperature warming (+1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C) and precipitation/groundwater thermal sensitivity (0, 0.33, 0.66, 1). Considering resource limitations, fisheries managers can use our water temperature modeling approach to predict effects of climate change on Mayan Cichlid and Oscar survival, growth, and dispersal and take actions to manage potential northward movement of these species.

Florida↗

USGS1991

The measurement of mangrove characteristics in southwest Florida using spot multispectral data

An intensive in situ sampling program near Marco Island, Florida during 19–23 October 1988 collected information on mangrove type, maximum canopy height, and percent canopy closure. These data were correlated with selected vegetation index information derived from analysis of SPOT multispectral (XS) data obtained on 21 October 1988. The Normalized Difference (ND) vegetation index information was the most highly correlated index with percent canopy closure (r=0.91). Percent canopy closure information can be used as a surrogate for mangrove density which is of great value when predicting which parts of the mangrove ecosystem are at greatest risk after an oil spill occurs. Such information is very valuable when constructing oil spill Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) Maps for tropical regions of the world.

Florida↗

USGS1990

A Miocene termite nest from southern Argentina and its paleoclimatological implications

A Miocene termitarium attributable to the extant termite Syntermes (Isoptera: Termitidae, Nasutitermitinae) is the first fossil termite nest reported from South America and possibly the oldest record of the Isoptera from that continent. The fossil remains consist of most of the periphery of the subterranean portion of a single Syntermes nest, including chambers and both major and minor systems of anastomosed galleries. The nest occurs in the upper part of a mature paleosol near the base of the pyroclastic and eolian Miocene Pinturas Formation. A new ichnogenus and ichnospecies, Syntermesichnus fon‐tanae , is proposed for this distinctive trace fossil. It differs from nests constructed by other members of the Nasutitermitinae in its architectural organization and its large size. The type locality is situated 20° south of the southernmost dispersion of extant Syntermes. The modern distribution of this termite is wholly neotropical, suggesting that at least part of southern Patagonia experienced a tropical to subtropical climate as late as the late‐early Miocene.

Ichnos: An International Journal for Plant and Ani↗

USGS2025

Impact of a place-based role-playing exercise on student sense of classroom community and science identity in a hydrology class

Fostering a sense of classroom community in earth science classes supports students’ sense of belonging within the classroom and the broader scientific community, helping them build a sense of identity as a geoscientist. This study examines the effects of incorporating a 2-week, collaborative role-playing activity on sense of classroom community and science identity in an introductory hydrology class. Students assumed roles of residents, medical center representatives, government employees, and environmental activists to learn about flooding through a community-centered lens, focusing on a flood event in Harris County, Texas during Tropical Storm Allison. Pre-post-surveys were given immediately before and after the learning module to evaluate classroom community, science identity using Likert scales, and hydrologist identity using a pictorial scale. Qualitative analysis of a short-answer question in which students defined “hydrologist” provided context for quantitative identity data. Post-survey data on classroom community shows an increase in mean agreement as compared to the pre-survey. This increase was statistically significant for four classroom community statements. Paired science identity data show small effect size and no significant change, but pictorial identity as a hydrologist shows significant growth. Social aspects of the role-playing activity did not significantly alter student’s already high science identity but altered their conceptions of the social implications of hydrology and increased identity as hydrologists. The significant increase in classroom community has important implications for using role-playing as an active learning strategy to enhance student learning experience by creating a positive classroom climate and connecting hydrology concepts to community needs.

Journal of Geoscience Education↗

USGS2007

The kelp highway hypothesis: Marine ecology, the coastal migration theory, and the peopling of the Americas

In this article, a collaborative effort between archaeologists and marine ecologists, we discuss the role kelp forest ecosystems may have played in facilitating the movement of maritime peoples from Asia to the Americas near the end of the Pleistocene. Growing in cool nearshore waters along rocky coastlines, kelp forests offer some of the most productive habitats on earth, with high primary productivity, magnified secondary productivity, and three-dimensional habitat supporting a diverse array of marine organisms. Today, extensive kelp forests are found around the North Pacific from Japan to Baja California. After a break in the tropics—where nearshore mangrove forests and coral reefs are highly productive—kelp forests are also found along the Andean Coast of South America. These Pacific Rim kelp forests support or shelter a wealth of shellfish, fish, marine mammals, seabirds, and seaweeds, resources heavily used historically by coastal peoples. By about 16,000 years ago, the North Pacific Coast offered a linear migration route, essentially unobstructed and entirely at sea level, from northeast Asia into the Americas. Recent reconstructions suggest that rising sea levels early in the postglacial created a highly convoluted and island-rich coast along Beringia's southern shore, conditions highly favorable to maritime hunter-gatherers. Along with the terrestrial resources available in adjacent landscapes, kelp forests and other nearshore habitats sheltered similar suites of food resources that required minimal adaptive adjustments for migrating coastal peoples. With reduced wave energy, holdfasts for boats, and productive fishing, these linear kelp forest ecosystems may have provided a kind of “kelp highway” for early maritime peoples colonizing the New World.

Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology↗

USGS2016

Wetlands: Tidal

Tidal wetlands are some of the most dynamic areas of the Earth and are found at the interface between the land and sea. Salinity, regular tidal flooding, and infrequent catastrophic flooding due to storm events result in complex interactions among biotic and abiotic factors. The complexity of these interactions, along with the uncertainty of where one draws the line between tidal and nontidal, makes characterizing tidal wetlands a difficult task. The three primary types of tidal wetlands are tidal marshes, mangroves, and freshwater forested wetlands. Tidal marshes are dominated by herbaceous plants and are generally found at middle to high latitudes of both hemispheres. Mangrove forests dominate tropical coastlines around the world while tidal freshwater forests are global in distribution. All three wetland types are highly productive ecosystems, supporting abundant and diverse faunal communities. Unfortunately, these wetlands are subject to alteration and loss from both natural and anthropogenic causes.

Book chapter↗

USGS2003

Evolution of CAM and C 4 carbon-concentrating mechanisms

Mechanisms for concentrating carbon around the Rubisco enzyme, which drives the carbon-reducing steps in photosynthesis, are widespread in plants; in vascular plants they are known as crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and C 4 photosynthesis. CAM is common in desert succulents, tropical epiphytes, and aquatic plants and is characterized by nighttime fixation of CO2. The proximal selective factor driving the evolution of this CO2-concentrating pathway is low daytime CO2, which results from the unusual reverse stomatal behavior of terrestrial CAM species or from patterns of ambient CO2 availability for aquatic CAM species. In terrestrials the ultimate selective factor is water stress that has selected for increased water use efficiency. In aquatics the ultimate selective factor is diel fluctuations in CO2 availability for palustrine species and extreme oligotrophic conditions for lacustrine species. C4 photosynthesis is based on similar biochemistry but carboxylation steps are spatially separated in the leaf rather than temporally as in CAM. This biochemical pathway is most commonly associated with a specialized leaf anatomy known as Kranz anatomy; however, there are exceptions. The ultimate selective factor driving the evolution of this pathway is excessively high photorespiration that inhibits normal C3 photosynthesis under high light and high temperature in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. CAM is an ancient pathway that likely has been present since the Paleozoic era in aquatic species from shallow-water palustrine habitats. While atmospheric CO2 levels have undoubtedly affected the evolution of terrestrial plant carbon-concentrating mechanisms, there is reason to believe that past atmospheric changes have not played as important a selective role in the aquatic milieu since palustrine habitats today are not generally carbon sinks, and the selective factors driving aquatic CAM are autogenic. Terrestrial CAM, in contrast, is of increasing selective value under extreme water deficits, and undoubtedly, high Mesozoic CO2 levels reduced the amount of landscape perceived by plants as water limited. Late Tertiary and Quaternary reductions in atmospheric CO2, coupled with increasing seasonality, were probably times of substantial species radiation and ecological expansion for CAM plants. C4 photosynthesis occurs in only about half as many families as CAM, and three-fourths of C4 species are either grasses or sedges. Molecular phylogenies indicate C4 is a more recent innovation than CAM and that it originated in the mid-Tertiary, 20–30 Ma, although some data support an earlier origin. While the timing of the origin of C4 remains controversial, the nearly explosive increase in C4 species is clearly documented in the late Miocene, 4–7 Ma. Increasing seasonality has been widely suggested as an important climatic stimulus for this C4 expansion. Alternatively, based on models of photosynthetic quantum yield at different temperatures and CO2 concentration, it has been hypothesized that the late Miocene C4 expansion resulted from declining atmospheric CO2 levels. This model is most appropriate for explaining the transition from C3 grasslands to C4 grasslands but by itself may not be sufficient to explain the more likely scenario of a late Miocene transition from C3 woodland/ savanna to C4 grasslands. A largely unexplored hypothesis is that climatic changes in late Miocene altered disturbance regimes, in particular the incidence of fires, which today are often associated with maintenance of C4 grasslands. Oceanic charcoal sediments that appear to represent Aeolian deposits from continental wildfires follow a strikingly similar pattern of explosive increase in late Miocene. Climate, CO2, and disturbance are not mutually exclusive explanations and probably all acted in concert to promote the expansion of C4 grasslands. More recently, late Quaternary changes in CO2 may have been responsible for driving major changes in the landscape distribution of C4 species. The theory is sound; however, many of the studies cited in support of this model are open to alternative interpretations, and none has eliminated climatic factors as important selective agents. CAM and C4 evolution required coupling of biochemical pathways with structural changes in photosynthetic tissues, succulence in CAM and Kranz in C4. This was apparently accomplished by piecemeal evolution beginning with mechanisms for recapturing respiratory CO2, although this need not have been so in aquatic CAM species. It has been proposed that the extreme rarity of both pathways in the same plant results from biochemical and structural incompatibilities (Sage 2002). Equally important is the fact that the selective environments are quite different, with CAM evolution thriving on stressful sites inhospitable to C3 species whereas C4 evolution has selected for rapid growth capable of outcompeting associated C3 plants.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS2016

Using occupancy modeling and logistic regression to assess the distribution of shrimp species in lowland streams, Costa Rica: Does regional groundwater create favorable habitat?

Freshwater shrimps are an important biotic component of tropical ecosystems. However, they can have a low probability of detection when abundances are low. We sampled 3 of the most common freshwater shrimp species, Macrobrachium olfersii, Macrobrachium carcinus , and Macrobrachium heterochirus , and used occupancy modeling and logistic regression models to improve our limited knowledge of distribution of these cryptic species by investigating both local- and landscape-scale effects at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. Local-scale factors included substrate type and stream size, and landscape-scale factors included presence or absence of regional groundwater inputs. Capture rates for 2 of the sampled species ( M. olfersii and M. carcinus ) were sufficient to compare the fit of occupancy models. Occupancy models did not converge for M. heterochirus , but M. heterochirus had high enough occupancy rates that logistic regression could be used to model the relationship between occupancy rates and predictors. The best-supported models for M. olfersii and M. carcinus included conductivity, discharge, and substrate parameters. Stream size was positively correlated with occupancy rates of all 3 species. High stream conductivity, which reflects the quantity of regional groundwater input into the stream, was positively correlated with M. olfersii occupancy rates. Boulder substrates increased occupancy rate of M. carcinus and decreased the detection probability of M. olfersii. Our models suggest that shrimp distribution is driven by factors that function at local (substrate and discharge) and landscape (conductivity) scales.

La Selva Biological Station, Saltito River, Salto ↗

USGS2017

Recruitment phenology and pelagic larval duration in Caribbean amphidromous fishes

Amphidromous fishes are major components of oceanic tropical island stream ecosystems, such as those of the Caribbean island, Puerto Rico. Fishes with this life history face threats related to the requirement for connectivity between freshwater and marine environments during early life stages. Pelagic larval duration and recruitment phenology are 2 early life-history processes that are crucial for the biology, ecology, conservation, and management of amphidromous fishes. However, these processes are understudied in the Caribbean in general and have never been quantified in Puerto Rico. We quantified recruit abundance, recruitment phenology, and pelagic larval duration of several Caribbean amphidromous fish species in multiple rivers in Puerto Rico and explored the effects of environmental variables on recruit abundances. Two fish taxa—sirajo goby ( Sicydium spp.) and River Goby ( Awaous banana )—were exceptionally abundant as postlarvae and recruited to Caribbean rivers in pulsed migration episodes that were periodic at annual and lunar scales. Sirajo goby and River Goby recruit abundances varied among rivers, were greater at sunrise than at sunset, and were positively related to river discharge. The pelagic larval duration of 4 fish taxa ranged from a minimum of 28 d to a maximum of 103 d with means between 43 ± 7 d (SD) and 65 ± 11 d. We identified the last-quarter moon phase during the months of June through January as periods of maximum amphidromous fish recruitment to freshwater streams. The results and conclusions of our study can be applied to identify critical times to maintain river–ocean connectivity and stream flow for the benefit of the amphidromous fish population dynamics, stream ecology, and natural resources of the Caribbean.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2019

Higher nest predation favors rapid fledging at the cost of plumage quality in nestling birds

Life-history theory predicts that rapid growth comes at a cost to offspring quality and adult longevity. However, trade-offs have been examined primarily based on proximate variation within species rather than evolved differences across species. Evolved differences are important to examine because species may co-evolve mechanisms to reduce long-term costs of rapid growth. For example, trade-offs associated with fast growth and short development time might be expressed in ephemeral traits because costs associated with these traits are paid for only a short duration. We explored this idea using nestling body feathers, an ephemeral trait, and examined whether shorter development time yielded lower quality feathers. We found a strong trade-off whereby nestlings that spend more time in the nest produced higher quality plumage across 123 temperate and tropical species. Using a subset of these species (n=67), we found that plumage quality was lower in species with higher rates of nest predation, which favors rapid nestling growth and short development times. Our results suggest that evolution of more rapid growth may co-evolve with other mechanisms whereby long-term costs are reduced by shifting costs of allocational trade-offs to ephemeral traits that are short-lived.

The American Naturalist↗

USGS2014

Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa

In this study we implement and evaluate a simple 'hybrid' forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble's (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The 'hybrid approach' described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits from the post-1999 teleconnection that exists between precipitation and SSTs over the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) and EA MAM rainfall. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamical forecasts used in this study were drawn from the NMME. We demonstrate that while the MAM precipitation forecasts (initialized in February) skill of the NMME models over the EA region itself is negligible, the ranked probability skill score of hybrid CA forecasts based on Indo-Pacific NMME precipitation and SST forecasts reach up to 0.45.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2026

Compounding of 100-year coastal floods by rainfall in an urban environment

Coastal and pluvial flooding are both becoming more prevalent and severe due to climate change and urbanization in floodplains. The co-occurrence of these flood drivers is generally assumed to exacerbate the resulting flood impacts, a result referred to as compound flooding. However, few observational or modeling studies have investigated the circumstances under which this occurs. Here, we study the impacts of these combined flood drivers and evaluate the implicit hypothesis of official flood maps, which is that rainfall has a negligible impact on the flood depth and flooded area due to a 100 year coastal flood. A coastal system model, configured to capture coastal and pluvial flood drivers, is used. We evaluate the flooding for different urban landform types, including coastal landfill (human-made land), convergent areas (topographic depressions) and other urban terrain, within a model domain covering the Jamaica Bay watershed of New York City. A scenario-based strategy is adopted with a 100 year coastal flood as a control simulation, to which we add a set of realistic scenarios of rainfall data from historical tropical cyclones. We also apply a joint probability analysis framework with historical data to evaluate the probability of these compound coastal-pluvial scenarios. Results reveal cases where the pluvial driver compounds the coastal flood through expansion of the flood zone, with a 17% chance of rainfall increasing the flood area by 6%–38%, and a 5% chance of an increase of 61%–73%. It is rare that floods are significantly deepened but when deepening occurs, it is more common for the convergent zone than for the coastal landfill. These findings quantitatively assess the potential of the pluvial driver to exacerbate flooding, which may influence emergency management strategies such as evacuation plans, shelter arrangements, and related preparedness measures.

New York↗