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A three-dimensional geologic framework model of the northern Great Plains region of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, USA

This report presents a new three-dimensional geologic framework model (GFM) of the northern Great Plains region, encompassing parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. The model provides a regionally consistent, geographic information system (GIS)-ready representation of Phanerozoic sedimentary strata, major fault systems, and Precambrian basement geometry across two sedimentary basins and adjacent uplifts. More than 300,000 geologic and geophysical data inputs were synthesized to model 41 stratigraphic horizons and 47 faults, yielding an internally coherent, sealed-volume interpretation of the subsurface. The modeling workflow developed for this study demonstrates an efficient and scalable approach for constructing basin-to regional-scale GFMs in geologically complex and data-variable settings. Although model fidelity varies with data density and quality, the resulting geometry is broadly consistent with 1:500,000-scale geologic mapping and highlights areas where additional geologic study is most needed. The three-dimensional GFM provides a foundational framework to support groundwater, energy, and mineral resource assessments, and offers a transferable methodology for potential future U.S. Geological Survey efforts to build large-area subsurface models in underexplored regions of the United States.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming

Cancer risk and estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater in the US

Importance Lithium is a naturally occurring element in drinking water and is commonly used as a mood-stabilizing medication. Although clinical studies have reported associations between receiving lithium treatment and reduced cancer risk among patients with bipolar disorder, to our knowledge, the association between environmental lithium exposure and cancer risk has never been studied in the general population. Objectives To evaluate the association between exposure to lithium in drinking groundwater and cancer risk in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study included participants with electronic health record and residential address information but without cancer history at baseline from the All of Us Research Program between May 31, 2017, and June 30, 2022. Participants were followed up until February 15, 2023. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2023 through October 2024. Exposure Lithium concentration in groundwater, based on kriging interpolation of publicly available US Geological Survey data on lithium concentration for 4700 wells across the contiguous US between May 12, 1999, and November 6, 2018. Main Outcome and Measures The main outcome was cancer diagnosis or condition, obtained from electronic health records. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for risk of cancer overall and individual cancer types for increasing quintiles of the estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater, adjusting for socioeconomic, behavioral, and neighborhood-level variables. The analysis was further conducted in the western and eastern halves of the US and restricted to long-term residents living at their current address for at least 3 years. Results A total of 252 178 participants were included (median age, 52 years [IQR, 36-64 years]; 60.1% female). The median follow-up time was 3.6 years (IQR, 3.0-4.3 years), and 7573 incident cancer cases were identified. Higher estimated lithium exposure was consistently associated with reduced cancer risk. Compared with the first (lowest) quintile of lithium exposure, the HR for all cancers was 0.49 (95% CI, 0.31-0.78) for the fourth quintile and 0.29 (95% CI, 0.15-0.55) for the fifth quintile. These associations were found for all cancer types investigated in both females and males, among long-term residents, and in both western and eastern states. For example, for the fifth vs first quintile of lithium exposure for all cancers, the HR was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.07-0.42) in females and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.38) in males; for long-term residents, the HR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.15-0.66) in females and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.52) in males; and the HR was 0.01 (95% CI, 0.00-0.09) in western states and 0.34 (95% CI, 0.21-0.57) in eastern states. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of 252 178 participants, estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater was associated with reduced cancer risk. Given the sparse evidence and unknown mechanisms of this association, follow-up investigation is warranted.

contiguous United States

Critical minerals in orogenic (gold) and Coeur d’Alene-type mineral systems of the United States

Orogenic and Coeur d’Alene-type mineral systems are produced by metamorphic devolatilization of thick volcanic or siliciclastic sedimentary rock sequences and the focused flow of hydrothermal fluids upwards along crustal-scale faults. Most orogenic systems are found along the Cordilleran orogen, stretching from California northwards into Alaska, whereas most Coeur d’Alene-type systems occur in the Proterozoic Belt Basin in Idaho and Montana. Although the deposit types in these systems are exploited for precious and base metals, potential exists for the production of critical minerals necessary for current (2025) societal needs in the United States. Publicly available geochemical data compiled for these mineral systems, coupled with mineralogical characteristics, indicate that several critical minerals could potentially be recovered from unmined resources and processed mine waste: arsenic, antimony, tellurium, cobalt, and tungsten from orogenic gold deposits and zinc, antimony, arsenic, and manganese from Coeur d’Alene-type systems. These critical minerals reside primarily in arsenopyrite (arsenic), scheelite (tungsten), siderite (manganese), sphalerite (zinc), tetrahedrite (antimony and arsenic), stibnite (antimony), and telluride (tellurium) minerals.

continental United States

Quality of groundwater used for domestic supply in the eastern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills, California

Summary More than 2 million Californians rely on groundwater from privately owned domestic wells for drinking-water supply. This report summarizes a water-quality survey of domestic and small-system drinking-water supply wells in the eastern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where more than 25,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells. Study results show that inorganic and organic constituents in groundwater were present above regulatory (maximum contaminant level, MCL) benchmarks for public drinking-water quality in 8 and 3 percent, respectively, of the aquifer area used for domestic drinking-water supply (herein, “domestic groundwater resources”; fig. 1). The only inorganic constituent detected above regulatory benchmarks was arsenic. The only organic constituent exceeding regulatory benchmarks was the fumigant 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP). Three additional organic constituents—the disinfection by-product chloroform, the gasoline oxygenate methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), and the solvent tetrachloroethene (PCE)—were detected at low concentrations below one-tenth of regulatory benchmarks in 34, 10, and 10 percent of domestic groundwater resources, respectively. Total dissolved solids (TDS), iron, and manganese exceeded non-regulatory aesthetic guidelines for drinking water in 5, 10, and 26 percent of domestic groundwater resources, respectively. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) were detected in 29 percent of domestic groundwater resources,with 5 percent exceeding the recently enacted (April 2024) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency MCLs. Total coliform and enterococci bacteria were detected in 13 and 8 percent of domestic groundwater resources, respectively. Redox sensitive constituents in this study included arsenic, manganese, nitrate, and iron. In the lower elevation portions of the eastern Sacramento Valley study area, reducing conditions in groundwater aquifers promote elevated arsenic, iron, and manganese, and conversely lower concentrations of nitrate. The presence of the volatile organic compound (VOC) 1,2,3-TCP was related to its past history in select agricultural land uses (on orchards or vineyards) in the Sacramento Valley; however, unlike in the San Joaquin Valley where orchards and vineyards are more common, its detection frequency was low (only detected in one well in this study). Chloroform was frequently detected in this study at low levels. Chloroform is a disinfection byproduct commonly found in domestic wells treated by shock chlorination. The solvent PCE is among the most frequently detected VOCs in groundwater, which is primarily related to its long history of use and its persistence in groundwater in oxic conditions. The gasoline oxygenate MTBE was a contaminant introduced to groundwater through atmospheric exchange when it was used as a fuel additive to decrease smog inducing emissions from vehicles. Its occurrence in groundwater at low levels is expected and makes it a potentially useful tracer of relatively recent recharge water being withdrawn from wells. The PFASs are anthropogenic chemicals with hundreds of uses, and they have been incorporated into many different products, processes, and applications worldwide. Like MTBE, the occurrence of PFASs in groundwater may be in part due to atmospheric exchange, but there are several other pathways that contribute PFASs to the environment.

California

VIPER site analysis

We needed to evaluate available orbital data of NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission area in order to derive a variety of maps to help the science team identify scientifically interesting places for the rover to visit and to provide scientific context for our mission. Some of these maps also fulfilled engineering and mission design needs to enable safe and efficient landing and roving. We incorporated data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera, the Lunar Orbital Laser Altimeter, the Mini-RF instrument, the Chandrayaan-2 Orbital High Resolution Camera, the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter’s Shadowcam, the Kaguya Spectral Profiler and Multiband Imager, and the Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper. We used a variety of techniques to build these maps, including stereogrammetry, shape-from-shading, ice stability depth and surface temperature calculations, and the horizon method for solar illumination and direct-to-Earth communications maps. Altogether, these maps allowed us to survey for boulders, evaluate features in permanently shadowed regions that VIPER might explore, provide mineralogic context for what VIPER’s instruments may learn, estimate the ages and radar properties of craters in the VIPER mission area, and evaluate the potential for gravity traverses with the rover. These data and techniques provided a rich set of information from which both the VIPER science team and engineering teams were able to draw in order to plan a safe landing and to plan a VIPER surface mission that will be both scientifically valuable and robust from an operational perspective.

The Planetary Science Journal

Slow rupture, long rise times, and multi-fault geometry: The 2020 M6.4 southwestern Puerto Rico mainshock

The M 6.4 mainshock of the southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence on 7 January 2020, was one of the most impactful modern earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean. Due to its offshore location and complex aftershock distribution, its source kinematics remain poorly constrained. This active sequence illuminated a complex set of previously unrecognized structures that indicate multiple causative faults may have slipped during its rupture. Here, we utilize seismic and geodetic observations to enhance model resolution, estimate the finite slip of the mainshock, and test a multi-segment, geologically realistic fault geometry. Our refined model finds a lower rupture velocity and longer rise times than typical for an event of this magnitude. This indicates a slow-evolving rupture process that resembles characteristics of a tsunami earthquake. Although this normal/strike-slip faulting event was not tsunamigenic, these qualities, if pervasive for this region, have important implications for future seismic monitoring and hazards in southwestern Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico

Sediment thickness map of United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Strata, and their influence on earthquake ground motions

With the recent successful accounting of basin depth ground-motion adjustments in seismic hazard analyses for select areas of the western United States, we move toward implementing similar adjustments in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains by constructing a sediment thickness model and evaluating multiple relevant site amplification models for central and eastern United States seismic hazard analyses. We digitize and combine existing sediment thickness data sets into a composite surface that delineates the base of Cretaceous sediments under the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the base of Mesozoic sediments under the Gulf Coastal Plain. Amplification models dependent on sediment thickness, site natural period, and source-to-site path length are compared with data sets of observed ground motions to evaluate the ability of the new models to improve ground motion estimates. We find that the amplification models can account for observed trends in sediment-thickness and period-dependent residuals, but some tuning is required. For example, the model of Chapman and Guo requires a reference V S 30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity within 30 m of the Earth’s surface, for non-Coastal Plain sites, which we estimate to be between about 1 and 2 km/s. Along with our sediment thickness model, we estimate a velocity profile for application to the Harmon et al. site-natural-period-based model in order to best match the Chapman and Guo period dependence for a broad range of sediment thicknesses. The Next Generation of Attenuation models for the eastern United States Gulf Coast path-based adjustment models can also account for seismic attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediments and reduce the standard deviation of total residuals. If enacted in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model, these amplification models will reduce predicted short-period (<1 s) and increase predicted long-period (>1 s) ground motions in the Coastal Plains appreciably.

Earthquake Spectra

Effects of groundwater withdrawals for water bottling and municipal use, Wards Brook Valley, Maine and New Hampshire

Hydrologic models for the Wards Brook valley near Fryeburg, Maine were developed for historical (2016 – 2021) and hypothetical future conditions (2046 – 2065 and 2080 – 2099) to understand the effects of groundwater withdrawals for bottled water and municipal use on hydrologic conditions (stream base flows and groundwater levels). Analyses showed that the simulated base flows in Wards Brook were reduced because of pumping for both municipal water supplies and for water bottling, and about half of the total pumping impact on the base flows in Wards Brook was from the bottled water extraction. Simulated flows were greater than the minimum recommended streamflow of 2,180 cubic meters per day (400 gallons per minute) throughout the historical period. Simulated groundwater levels at two of three nearby ponds (Round Pond and Davis Pond) were minimally affected by pumping conditions, and effects were primarily from the municipal well closest to the ponds. Several estimates of future projected recharge were used to understand the potential effects of groundwater withdrawals on hydrologic conditions under multiple hypothetical climate conditions. Annual projected recharge rates in the mid- and late-21st century from two climate scenarios (stabilized greenhouse-gas emissions and high greenhouse-gas emissions) were similar to rates for 2016 – 2021. However, monthly recharge patterns for the future periods shifted toward more recharge in the winter months (December, January, and February) and less recharge in April, May, and October relative to 2016 – 2021. The lowest mean monthly base flows from the future emission scenarios all remain larger than the minimum recommended streamflow and indicate no long-term declines in flow relative to historical conditions. However, simulated base flows during hypothetical 3-year drought scenarios declined below minimum recommended streamflow during the summer months in the stabilized- and high-emission scenarios in the mid-21st century. Although water is generally plentiful in the Wards Brook valley, reduced pumping may be needed to maintain streamflows in Wards Brook under future climate conditions similar to modeled drought scenarios.

EarthArXiv

Geologic map of Scoggins Dam, Henry Hagg Lake, and Scoggins Valley, Washington County, Oregon

New geologic mapping (Wells and others, 2020b) and geophysical mapping (Blakely and others, 2000; McPhee and others, 2014; Wells and others, 2020a) document kilometers of Cenozoic right-lateral offset along the Gales Creek Fault Zone, a major, northwest-striking fault zone forming the boundary between the Tualatin Valley and the Coast Range. The Bureau of Reclamation’s (Reclamation) Scoggins Dam (fig. 1), in the Coast Range foothills west of Forest Grove, Oregon, lies within the Gales Creek Fault Zone as mapped by Wells and others (2020a, 2020b; fig. 2). Active faults of the Gales Creek Fault Zone defined by paleoseismic trenching (Redwine and others, 2017, 2019b, Horst and others, 2018, 2019, 2021, and Wells and others, 2020a) are presently mapped as projecting through the existing dam. The Pacific Northwest Region of Reclamation requested assistance with geologic studies around Scoggins Dam to provide better understanding of fault locations and their activity, which are needed to design a modification of the dam (Maguire, 2019a, b). The scope of this project includes detailed geology of the existing Scoggins Dam site, Henry Hagg Lake, the reservoir behind the dam, and Scoggins Valley downstream of the existing dam, particularly around a potential new dam site, where Scoggins Creek cuts through a narrow gap formed by a resistant felsic tuff bed that crosses the valley.

Oregon

Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm

Stream temperature controls a variety of physical and biological processes that affect ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. We used 42 years (1979–2021) of data to predict daily summary statistics of stream temperature across >50,000 stream reaches in the contiguous United States using a recurrent graph convolution network. We comprehensively documented the performance – both across all reaches and by stream type (e.g., reservoir or groundwater influence) – as a baseline for future improvement. The model showed reach-level RMSE of <2 °C with 90 % prediction intervals that contain 90.7 % of observations. We also assessed how the model captured variability in ecologically relevant metrics (e.g., R 2 for annual 7-day maximum = 0.76; R 2 for days exceeding 25 °C = 0.75). This model does not outperform state-of-the-art machine learning efforts (e.g., RMSE ≤1.5 °C) due to a limited input set but does provide the most spatially complete modeling to date to support water availability assessments.

contiguous United States

Formation of the Mount Weld rare earth deposit, Western Australia: Geochronology constraints

Constraining the age of protracted chemical weathering in stable cratonic areas that may form thick regoliths and the potential enrichment of various elements is challenging. Economic deposits of aluminium, iron, copper, nickel, cobalt, niobium, and rare earth elements (REEs) form in this manner. Determining the age of formation can provide key information for exploration of similar deposits as well as to better constrain paleoclimatic conditions. This study describes our effort to constrain the age of formation of the Mount Weld deposit, a world-class carbonatite-derived REE laterite deposit. We utilize multiple geochronological techniques on different minerals. The oldest dates, ranging from ca. 100 to 50 Ma, were from laser ablation ICPMS, Lu-Hf dating of churchite, a heavy REE phosphate mineral formed by mineral saturation in groundwater. Growth bands on individual minerals show a younging outwards. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology of cryptomelane, a potassium-bearing manganese oxide mineral, yielded ages ranging from ca. 40 to 26 Ma. Similarly, (U–Th)/He geochronology of goethite yielded ages from ca. 45 to 19 Ma.

Mount Weld deposit

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular

Multi-lithofacies alluvial characterization via airborne electromagnetic-borehole fusion using ordinary interval kriging and geologic constraints

Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey provides extensive spatial coverage and detailed resolution at the near surface and can be used to develop hydrogeological models. However, utilization of AEM data is not straightforward because AEM resistivity is an indirect measurement for inferring sediment types. This study develops an ordinary interval kriging (OIK) algorithm and a resistivity-to-multi-lithofacies (R2ML) data fusion workflow for multi-lithofacies alluvial characterization. OIK utilizes irregular interval data to construct three-dimensional (3D) resistivity fields from one-dimensional inverted AEM resistivity models. The R2ML workflow maps the resistivity field generated from OIK into a multi-facies lithological model, incorporating geologic constraints derived from well logs and geological observations. The numerical and real-world cases demonstrate that OIK is computationally efficient, accounts for 3D anisotropy, and minimizes the smoothing effect, thereby preserving resistivity contrasts and reducing interpolation uncertainty. The methodology is applied to lithologic characterization of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) in the Shellmound area, Mississippi, U.S. A frequency-domain AEM survey was conducted to support groundwater studies for the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to the MRVA. The resulting lithological model, including four types of lithofacies—clay, very fine sand, fine-medium sands, and graveliferous sands, illustrates the geomorphological processes of the MRVA and implies potential MAR. The alignment between the lithological model and existing geological and hydrogeological investigations demonstrates that OIK and R2ML workflow effectively capture the subsurface architecture of the MRVA. The methods have broad applicability for characterizing alluvial aquifers through AEM-borehole data fusion, supporting sustainable groundwater management.

Mississippi

Deformation mechanisms in quartz veins and shear zones elucidate the origin of gold mineralization at Pogo, Alaska

Pogo is a quartz vein hosted, ca. 8 Moz gold deposit. Although it has similarities to orogenic and magmatic-hydrothermal deposits, its origin remains enigmatic. Observations from surface exposures, underground workings, and drill core provide new constraints on quartz vein origins with implications for mineralization. Abundant, largely barren metamorphic segregation quartz veins are found throughout interior Alaska and share characteristics with mineralized quartz veins at Pogo. Pogo quartz veins show crystal plastic deformation fabrics consistent with greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism and a lack of internal shear. In contrast, gold in Pogo quartz veins occurs in brittle microfaults and fractures with sulphides such as arsenopyrite and pyrrhotite. Major and minor cataclastic shear zones also exist at Pogo. Cataclastic shear zones commonly cut the mineralized quartz veins and porphyroclasts are dominated by quartz with the same plastic deformation fabrics found in the major Pogo quartz veins. The porphyroclasts, and the carbonaceous clay-rich matrix they sit in, also contain gold indicating that the shear zones postdate quartz and earliest gold deposition. These observations suggest that competency contrasts between the quartz veins and their phyllosilicate-rich host rocks controlled transient permeability formed by late, preferential brittle deformation events localizing sulphide ± gold deposition.

Alaska

Shallow storage of the explosive Earthquake Flat Pyroclastics magma body, Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand: Evidence from phase-equilibria experiments

Rhyolitic tuffs range widely in their crystal contents from nearly aphyric to crystal-rich, and their crystal cargoes inform concepts of upper crustal magma reservoirs. The Earthquake Flat pyroclastics (Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand) are 10 km 3 of rhyolitic tuffs with abundant (~ 40 vol.%) plagioclase and quartz, minor biotite, hornblende, and orthopyroxene, and accessory Fe-Ti oxides, apatite, and zircon, set in high-silica rhyolitic glass. Major minerals form large, euhedral phenocrysts and abundant glomerocrysts with few disequilibrium textures excepting some faintly resorbed quartz. Plagioclase phenocrysts have thick rims of nearly constant composition near An 30 , and hornblende is weakly zoned or unzoned. The abundant and texturally complex mineral assemblage contrasts with the nearby (~ 25 km), nearly synchronous, but more voluminous and crystal-moderate rhyolite tuffs from Rotoiti caldera. New H 2 O-saturated phase-equilibria results on the erupted Earthquake Flat melt (glass) determine its co-saturation with the partial phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase, quartz, biotite, and Fe-Ti oxides at: 140 MPa, 755 ºC. These closely approximate the conditions of the pre-eruptive magma body assuming it was saturated with nearly pure H 2 O and at an f O 2 of ~ Ni–NiO. Absence of hornblende and orthopyroxene from the synthesized assemblages may result from those minerals being in a peritectic reaction relation with melt to produce biotite, so they would not grow from the liquid used as starting material. Experimental results on Rotoiti rhyolite (Nicholls et al. 1992) show that the two bodies resided at similar pressures, temperatures, and f O 2 s. Lower crystal abundance of the Rotoiti tuffs may result from slight compositional differences. We interpret that the Earthquake Flat pyroclastics were sourced from the crystal-rich periphery of a mushy reservoir system with the Rotoiti occupying a more melt-rich central location. Uncertain is whether this was a single intrusion zoned continuously in crystallinity, or discrete adjacent intrusions, but our results illustrate and quantify complexities of magma storage across relatively short distances.

North Island, Taupo Volcanic Zone

Multiple machine-learning estimation of groundwater levels and trends for the regional Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer provides irrigation, public, and domestic water supplies across the south-central United States. Declining groundwater levels require improved characterization of changing conditions. Traditional potentiometric-surface mapping does not use all available water-level data or quantify uncertainty. To address these limitations, we developed a data-driven multiple machine-learning (MML) framework delivered through two open-source R packages. The covMRVAgen1 software assembles covariates to 155,960 monthly groundwater levels from 57,695 wells; the mmlMRVAgen1 software trains Cubist and Random Forest models, blends them, and makes 1-kilometer gridded predictions of monthly potentiometric surfaces for the period January 1980–December 2022. The MML approach provides a methodological foundation for region-scale spatiotemporal groundwater prediction and uncertainty quantification, generating 90-percent prediction limits with appropriate empirical coverage. Model performance is acceptable, with a root-mean-square error of about 4.2 feet, standard deviation of 24.82 feet, and a normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.973.

Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou

Water-quality appraisal of NASQAN stations below impoundments, eastern Tennessee

The National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) is a network of stations at which systematic and continuing water-quality data are collected. Major objectives of this U.S. Geological Survey program are (1) to depict areal variability of streamflow and water-quality conditions nationwide on a year-by-year basis and (2) to detect long-term changes in streamflow and stream quality. Several NASQAN stations in East Tennessee are downstream from impoundments which have a significant effect on water quality. NASQAN data obtained from the Tennessee River below Watts Bar Dam and the Clinch River below Melton Hill Dam were compared to water-quality data from the basins upstream. The comparison indicates that NASQAN data obtained below impoundment may not be adequate to describe a composite picture of water quality in the accounting unit. Detention time of storage in the impoundments is believed to moderate the range of constituent values observed at the NASQAN stations. Data obtained upstream and downstream from Watts Bar Dam indicate that the water sampled at the NASQAN station comes from stratified layers of the impoundment and is not representative of an integrated sample of water from the impoundment. Values of total recoverable iron suggest that, because of adsorption to sediments in impoundments, some constituents are not accurately described by sampling below impoundments. Relations between water-quality constituents and flow at stations on the Clinch River and Tennessee River are not well defined due to regulation. Direct load computations for many constituents were therefore not possible, which diminished the utility of data from these NASQAN stations to account for quantity versus quality of the water. Load computations were only possible for ionic constituents through use of a continuous specific-conductance record as an intermediary. Compensation for the effects of discharge prior to application of the Seasonal Kendall test for trends could not be done and identification of trends in water-quality constituents caused by some process (source) change was not possible. Some water-quality trends indicated by data from the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers might reflect the decreasing trend in discharge during the 1972-82 water years. Thus the stations below Watts Bar Dam and below Melton Hill Dam do not adequately meet the NASQAN objective to detect and assess long-term changes in stream quality.

Tennessee

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth