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Environmental issues associated with fossil fuel resources; an evaluation of research opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program

Fossil fuel consumption in the United States has nearly tripled within the last 50 years (fig. 1), and is expected to continue increasing. As our knowledge and awareness of environmental consequences related to fossil fuel extraction and use grow, we as a nation, face the challenge of balancing our energy requirements with a desire for environmentally cleaner fuel. To help meet this challenge, the Energy Resources Program (ERP) of the Geologic Division (GD), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sponsored three internal workshops and a World Wide Web (WWW) workshop. The primary goal of these workshops was to identify those environmental issues that are related to fossil fuels, are national in scope, and are within the purview of the USGS as an earth-science government agency. Those issues so identified will be prioritized according to ERP's future research plan and according to the extent they provide an environmental framework for ERP's petroleum and coal assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide the results of the internal and WWW workshops as proposed topics of research for future ERP work, delineate studies to answer the questions related to each proposed research area, and link the studies to the seven science goals of the Geologic Division. The information provided herein will be used in preparing the USGS Geologic Division's FY2000 prospectus and ERP's next five-year strategic plan. Acknowledgements. The authors wish to acknowledge information on ERP environmental projects provided by Les Magoon, Paul Lillis, Keith Kvenvolden, Tom Lorenson, and Bob Rosenbauer. Peter Schweitzer was instrumental in providing the software for the WWW workshop, Cheryl Adkisson for constructing the workshop web pages, and Laura Friedrich for constructing the web pages summarizing the internal workshops. Stan Mroczkowski, Jim Otton, Donna Read, and Dorothy Tanti provided notes of or logistical assistance for the internal workshops. This report reflects the collective input of numerous USGS managers and scientists their participation in the workshops is greatly appreciated.

Open-File Report↗

Delineation of selected lithologic units using airborne electromagnetic data near Cedar Rapids, Iowa

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, began a study in 2013 to better understand the effects of drought stress on the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. After an evaluation of the existing groundwater-flow models for the alluvial aquifer, a plan was begun to construct an updated groundwater-flow model capable of evaluating the effect of prolonged drought and increased demand. As part of the effort to update the existing groundwater-flow model, data were collected during an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey in May 2017. The study area for the AEM survey encompasses about 53 square kilometers of the Cedar River Basin, west of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and includes a 19-kilometer reach of the Cedar River. The AEM survey of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and adjacent areas was completed to characterize the subsurface geology of the area to refine a lithologic framework. The collected AEM data were postprocessed by numerical inversion using the program EM1DFM to produce subsurface apparent resistivity cross sections. Changes observed in resistivity profile values with depth were used to infer lithologic changes and delineate three of the four lithologic units designated in the lithologic framework for this area: alluvial deposits, glacial till, and bedrock; hereafter referred to as the “lithologic framework.” The fourth unit, composed of surficial eolian sediments, was not delineated in these profiles because these units are thin and discontinuous and are not reliably distinguishable from flood plain alluvial deposits. For the purposes of delineating lithologic units using the AEM data, bedrock was assumed to be the lowest unit in a profile, glacial till was deposited on a bedrock surface, and alluvium was deposited on erosional till or bedrock surfaces. A three-dimensional fence diagram was created as part of the lithologic framework to further define the extent and thickness of the lithologic units near the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. The fence diagram shows a three-dimensional perspective of unit thickness, extent, and orientation of the delineated lithologic framework. A lithologic framework, by design, is intended to represent a simplification of a more complex natural system through data interpolation between known points, which usually are lithologic logs. The resistivity profiles produced from the AEM survey allow for continuous mapping and accurate interpolation of lithology between lithologic logs; however, the apparent resistivity value may reflect several characteristics of subsurface materials including variations in lithology, porosity, water quality, grain sorting, and degree of saturation. In this study, the only variables considered were those related to changes in the subsurface material.

Iowa↗

Permeability of soils in Mississippi

The permeability of soils in Mississippi was determined and mapped using a geographic information system (GIS). Soil permeabilities in Mississippi were determined to range in value from nearly 0.0 to values exceeding 5.0 inches per hour. The U.S. Soil Conservation Service's State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO) was used as the primary source of data for the determination of area-weighted soil permeability. STATSGO provides soil layer properties that are spatially referenced to mapped areas. These mapped areas are referred to as polygons in the GIS. The polygons arc boundaries of soils mapped as a group and are given unique Map Unit Identifiers (MUIDs). The data describing the physical characteristics of the soils within each polygon are stored in a tabular data base format and are referred to as attributes. The U.S. Soil Conservation Service developed STATSGO to be primarily used as a guide for regional resource planning, management, and monitoring. STATSGO was designed so that soil information could be extracted from properties tables at the layer level, combined by component, and statistically expanded to cover the entire map unit. The results of this study provide a mapped value for permeability which is representative of the vertical permeability of soils in that area. The resultant permeability map provides a representative vertical soil permeability for a given area sufficient for county, multi- county, and area planning, and will be used as the soil permeability data component in the evaluation of the susceptibility of major aquifers to contami- nation in Mississippi.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

Open-File Report↗

North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center regional science plan—2023–28

The U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC), established in 2012, is part of a national network supporting climate-informed decisions that benefit wildlife and habitats. The NC CASC provides climate science for the U.S. Department of the Interior, State agencies, and Tribal nations to support effective resource management. Collaborating with the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Center network, the NC CASC addresses multiregion challenges through a partnership involving the U.S. Geological Survey and additional regional partners. Input is collected from an Advisory Committee of State, Federal, and Tribal Government representatives. The center hosts Tribal Climate Resilience Liaisons, which are funded by the Bureau of Indian Affairs Branch of Tribal Climate Resilience and aligned with a Tribal Engagement Strategy. Positioned at the meeting point of scientists and managers and guided by core values, the NC CASC studies diverse ecosystems affected by climate change and empowers resource managers with actionable data and innovative science. This report outlines the 5-year Science Plan (hereafter “the Plan”) for the NC CASC. The center uses stakeholder engagement and coproduction of knowledge for effective collaboration, including engagement of Advisory Committee members and other management partners in the development of the Plan. The Plan provides a high-level overview of the NC CASC, covering the center’s geographical scope, key collaborators, stakeholders, and the strategic framework guiding the application of climate science to make informed management decisions. The Plan also summarizes management challenges and scientific objectives related to the impact of climate change on habitat, ecological drought, wildlife disease, invasives and encroachment, fire, and phenology.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska,↗

Quantifying drivers of wild pig movement across multiple spatial and temporal scales

Background The movement behavior of an animal is determined by extrinsic and intrinsic factors that operate at multiple spatio-temporal scales, yet much of our knowledge of animal movement comes from studies that examine only one or two scales concurrently. Understanding the drivers of animal movement across multiple scales is crucial for understanding the fundamentals of movement ecology, predicting changes in distribution, describing disease dynamics, and identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. Methods We obtained over 400,000 GPS locations of wild pigs from 13 different studies spanning six states in southern U.S.A., and quantified movement rates and home range size within a single analytical framework. We used a generalized additive mixed model framework to quantify the effects of five broad predictor categories on movement: individual-level attributes, geographic factors, landscape attributes, meteorological conditions, and temporal variables. We examined effects of predictors across three temporal scales: daily, monthly, and using all data during the study period. We considered both local environmental factors such as daily weather data and distance to various resources on the landscape, as well as factors acting at a broader spatial scale such as ecoregion and season. Results We found meteorological variables (temperature and pressure), landscape features (distance to water sources), a broad-scale geographic factor (ecoregion), and individual-level characteristics (sex-age class), drove wild pig movement across all scales, but both the magnitude and shape of covariate relationships to movement differed across temporal scales. Conclusions The analytical framework we present can be used to assess movement patterns arising from multiple data sources for a range of species while accounting for spatio-temporal correlations. Our analyses show the magnitude by which reaction norms can change based on the temporal scale of response data, illustrating the importance of appropriately defining temporal scales of both the movement response and covariates depending on the intended implications of research (e.g., predicting effects of movement due to climate change versus planning local-scale management). We argue that consideration of multiple spatial scales within the same framework (rather than comparing across separate studies post-hoc) gives a more accurate quantification of cross-scale spatial effects by appropriately accounting for error correlation.

Movement Ecology↗

Determination of channel capacity of the Mokelumne River downstream from Camanche Dam, San Joaquin and Sacramento Counties, California

This study evaluates the adequacy of a 39-mile reach of the Mokelumne River in San Joaquin and Sacramento Counties, California, to carry planned flood releases between Camanche Reservoir and the Bensons Ferry Bridge near Thornton. The flood releases from Camanche Reservoir are to be restricted, insofar as possible, so that the flows in the Mokelumne River will not exceed 5,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) as measured at the gaging station below Camanche Dam. Areas of inundation and computed floodwater profiles are based on channel conditions in late 1970 and on observed water-surface profiles during flood releases of about 5,000 cfs in January 1969 and January 1970. The inundated area shown on the maps (appendix A) and the water-surface elevations indicated on the cross sections (appendix G) are for the flood releases of those dates. The following conclusions are contingent on there being no levee failures during periods of high flow and no significant channel changes since the flood release of January 1970. 1. High tides in San Francisco Bay and, to a greater degree, flood stages on the Cosumnes River, cause backwater in the study reach. Severe backwater conditions occurring simultaneously with a flow of 5,000 cfs in the Mokelumne River can increase the flood stage 4 to 6 feet at Bensons Ferry Bridge (cross section 1). Backwater effects decrease in an upstream direction and are less than 0.5 foot at cross section 35, a river distance of 8.6 miles upstream from cross section 1, and 1.5 miles downstream from the Peltier Road bridge. 2. In the reach between cross sections 1 and 35, a 5,000 cfs release from Camanche Reservoir with maximum backwater effect (measured at cross section 1 at the mouth of the Cosumnes River) is confined within the natural or leveed banks except on the right bank flood plain between cross sections 12 and 19. 3. Upstream from cross section 35, there is overbank flooding at a flow of 5,000 cfs between cross sections 48 and 51, and 62 and 67.5. An increase in flow from 5,000 to 6,000 cfs will cause flooding between cross sections 43 and 47, 52 and 56, and 73 and 85. 4. A discharge of 5,000 cfs will pass through all bridge openings in the study reach except that of the Western Pacific Railroad Co. bridge at cross section 4. If large amounts of debris lodge on the railroad bridge when backwater from the Cosumnes River occurs, the debris could cause higher stages and flooding along the right bank between cross sections 5 and 12.

California↗

Hawksbill satellite-tracking case study: Implications for remigration interval and population estimates

Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are circumtropically distributed and listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN (Meylan & Donnelly 1999; NMFS & USFWS 1993). To aid in population recovery and protection, the Hawksbill Recovery Plan identified the need to determine demographic information for hawksbills, such as distribution, abundance, seasonal movements, foraging areas (sections 121 and 2211), growth rates, and survivorship (section 2213, NMFS & USFWS 1993). Mark-recapture analyses are helpful in estimating demographic parameters and have been used for hawksbills throughout the Caribbean (e.g., Richardson et al. 1999; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008); integral to these studies are recaptures at the nesting site as well as remigration interval estimates (Hays 2000). Estimates of remigration intervals (the duration between nesting seasons) are critical to marine turtle population estimates and measures of nesting success (Hays 2000; Richardson et al. 1999). Although hawksbills in the Caribbean generally show natal philopatry and nesting-site fidelity (Bass et al. 1996; Bowen et al. 2007), exceptions to this have been observed for hawksbills and other marine turtles (Bowen & Karl 2007; Diamond 1976; Esteban et al. 2015; Hart et al. 2013). This flexibility in choosing a nesting beach could therefore affect the apparent remigration interval and subsequently, region-wide population counts.

Marine Turtle Newsletter↗

Summary of environmental flow monitoring for the Sustainable Rivers Project on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers, western Oregon, 2014–15

This report presents the results of an ongoing environmental flow monitoring study by The Nature Conservancy (TNC), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Geological Survey in support of the Sustainable Rivers Project (SRP) of TNC and USACE. The overarching goal of this study is to evaluate and characterize relations between streamflow, geomorphic processes, and black cottonwood ( Populus trichocarpa ) recruitment on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers, western Oregon, that were hypothesized in earlier investigations. The SRP can use this information to plan future monitoring and scientific investigations, and to help mitigate the effects of dam operations on streamflow regimes, geomorphic processes, and biological communities, such as black cottonwood forests, in consultation with regional experts. The four tasks of this study were to: Compare the hydrograph from Water Year (WY) 2015 with hydrographs from WYs 2000–14 and the SRP flow recommendations, Assess short-term and system-wide changes in channel features and vegetation throughout the alluvial valley section of the Middle Fork Willamette River (2005–12), Examine changes in channel features and vegetation over two decades (1994–2014) for two short mapping zones on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers, and Complete a field investigation of summer stage and the growth of black cottonwood and other vegetation on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers in summer 2015.

Oregon↗

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

Conservation Biology↗

Informing adaptive management to reduce ungulate aggregations: A case study involving winter feeding of elk

In the United States, wildlife managers are entrusted with preserving culturally and economically important ungulate populations in the face of the ongoing spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established an adaptive management plan to reduce the reliance of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) on supplemental winter feeding on the National Elk Refuge. The end goal of reducing the unnaturally high aggregation of elk during the winter is to mitigate the threat of disease outbreaks and to meet the objectives of sustainable populations of elk on the refuge. In this case study, we evaluated 6 years (2017–2022) of data from GPS-collared elk to determine the efficacy of shortening the length of the annual feeding period on the refuge to reduce elk aggregation. We measured aggregation using proximity rates, based on pairwise interactions over time, in both raw form as an index as well as predicted proximity as a function of other abiotic influences. We created a new R package, wildagg , to help with the process of computing the metrics from our study and to increase reproducibility in the future. Aggregation declined in years with less feeding on the refuge according to raw aggregation metrics when examined in isolation and dependent on the baseline feeding year used for comparison. However, accounting for abiotic factors while modeling proximity rates suggested in some years the decision to shorten the feeding period had less influence on aggregation than predicted. Our results underscore the complexity of measuring management outcomes and the usefulness of multiple approaches to evaluation.

Wyoming↗

Nationwide study of the streamflow data program

During 1970 the Geological Survey conducted a study to evaluate the surface-water data collection program. Objectives were formulated, specific goals were set, a massive analysis of available data was made to determine the extent to which the present system enables the goals to be met, alternatives were considered for meeting the remaining goals, and finally, specific elements were identified for inclusion in the future program. The results of the evaluation will be used in planning the future streamflow data program. Less productive elements in the present program can be weeded out, and the effort devoted to more critically needed water data. The study provides the groundwork for redirection of efforts towards a more efficient system for satisfying present and future needs.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Survival of mountain quail translocated from two distinct source populations

Translocation of mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) to restore viable populations to their former range has become a common practice. Because differences in post-release vital rates between animals from multiple source populations has not been well studied, wildlife and land managers may arbitrarily choose the source population or base the source population on immediate availability when planning translocation projects. Similarly, an understanding of the optimal proportion of individuals from different age and sex classes for translocation would benefit translocation planning. During 2006 and 2007, we captured and translocated 125 mountain quail from 2 ecologically distinct areas: 38 from southern California and 87 from southwestern Oregon. We released mountain quail in the Bennett Hills of south-central Idaho. We radio-marked and monitored a subsample of 58 quail and used them for a 2-part survival analysis. Cumulative survival probability was 0.23 ± 0.05 (SE) at 150 days post-release. We first examined an a priori hypothesis (model) that survival varied between the 2 distinct source populations. We found that source population did not explain variation in survival. This result suggests that wildlife managers have flexibility in selecting source populations for mountain quail translocation efforts. In a post hoc examination, we pooled the quail across source populations and evaluated differences in survival probabilities between sex and age classes. The most parsimonious model indicated that adult male survival was substantially less than survival rates of other mountain quail age and sex classes (i.e., interaction between sex and age). This result suggests that translocation success could benefit by translocating yearling males rather than adult males, perhaps because adult male breeding behavior results in vulnerability to predators

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

The inverse problem of refraction travel times, part I: Types of Geophysical Nonuniqueness through Minimization

In a set of two papers we study the inverse problem of refraction travel times. The purpose of this work is to use the study as a basis for development of more sophisticated methods for finding more reliable solutions to the inverse problem of refraction travel times, which is known to be nonunique. The first paper, "Types of Geophysical Nonuniqueness through Minimization," emphasizes the existence of different forms of nonuniqueness in the realm of inverse geophysical problems. Each type of nonuniqueness requires a different type and amount of a priori information to acquire a reliable solution. Based on such coupling, a nonuniqueness classification is designed. Therefore, since most inverse geophysical problems are nonunique, each inverse problem must be studied to define what type of nonuniqueness it belongs to and thus determine what type of a priori information is necessary to find a realistic solution. The second paper, "Quantifying Refraction Nonuniqueness Using a Three-layer Model," serves as an example of such an approach. However, its main purpose is to provide a better understanding of the inverse refraction problem by studying the type of nonuniqueness it possesses. An approach for obtaining a realistic solution to the inverse refraction problem is planned to be offered in a third paper that is in preparation. The main goal of this paper is to redefine the existing generalized notion of nonuniqueness and a priori information by offering a classified, discriminate structure. Nonuniqueness is often encountered when trying to solve inverse problems. However, possible nonuniqueness diversity is typically neglected and nonuniqueness is regarded as a whole, as an unpleasant "black box" and is approached in the same manner by applying smoothing constraints, damping constraints with respect to the solution increment and, rarely, damping constraints with respect to some sparse reference information about the true parameters. In practice, when solving geophysical problems different types of nonuniqueness exist, and thus there are different ways to solve the problems. Nonuniqueness is usually regarded as due to data error, assuming the true geology is acceptably approximated by simple mathematical models. Compounding the nonlinear problems, geophysical applications routinely exhibit exact-data nonuniqueness even for models with very few parameters adding to the nonuniqueness due to data error. While nonuniqueness variations have been defined earlier, they have not been linked to specific use of a priori information necessary to resolve each case. Four types of nonuniqueness, typical for minimization problems are defined with the corresponding methods for inclusion of a priori information to find a realistic solution without resorting to a non-discriminative approach. The above-developed stand-alone classification is expected to be helpful when solving any geophysical inverse problems. ?? Birkha??user Verlag, Basel, 2005.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast

Context Coastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely. Objectives To examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States. Methods Using an existing probabilistic framework, we quantify the probability of inundation, a measure of vulnerability, under different SLR scenarios on the coastal landscape. Resistant areas—wherein a dynamic response is anticipated—are defined as unlikely (p < 0.33) to inundate. Results are assessed regionally for different land cover types and at 26 sites representing varying levels of land cover diversity. Results Modeling results suggest that by the 2050s, 44% of low-lying, habitable land in the region is unlikely to inundate, further declining to 36% by the 2080s. In addition to a decrease in SLR resistance with time, these results show an increasing uncertainty that the coastal landscape will continue to evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. We also find that resistance to SLR is correlated with land cover composition, wherein sites containing land cover types adaptable to SLR impacts show greater potential to undergo biogeomorphic state shifts rather than inundating with time. Conclusions Our findings support other studies that have highlighted the importance of ecological composition and diversity in stabilizing the physical landscape and suggest that flexible planning strategies, such as adaptive management, are particularly well suited for SLR preparation in diverse coastal settings.

Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New H↗

On the human appropriation of wetland primary production

Humans are changing the Earth's surface at an accelerating pace, with significant consequences for ecosystems and their biodiversity. Landscape transformation has far-reaching implications including reduced net primary production (NPP) available to support ecosystems, reduced energy supplies to consumers, and disruption of ecosystem services such as carbon storage. Anthropogenic activities have reduced global NPP available to terrestrial ecosystems by nearly 25%, but the loss of NPP from wetland ecosystems is unknown. We used a simple approach to estimate aquatic NPP from measured habitat areas and habitat-specific areal productivity in the largest wetland complex on the USA west coast, comparing historical and modern landscapes and a scenario of wetland restoration. Results show that a 77% loss of wetland habitats (primarily marshes) has reduced ecosystem NPP by 94%, C (energy) flow to herbivores by 89%, and detritus production by 94%. Our results also show that attainment of habitat restoration goals could recover 12% of lost NPP and measurably increase carbon flow to consumers, including at-risk species and their food resources. This case study illustrates how a simple approach for quantifying the loss of NPP from measured habitat losses can guide wetland conservation plans by establishing historical baselines, projecting functional outcomes of different restoration scenarios, and establishing performance metrics to gauge success.

California↗