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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

Palila Restoration Research, 1996−2012. Summary and management implications

The Palila Restoration Project was initiated in 1996 by the U.S. Geological Survey to assist government agencies mitigate the effects of realigning Saddle Road (Highway 200) through Palila Critical Habitat (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1998, Federal Highway Administration 1999). Ecological research on the palila (Loxioides bailleui), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly organized as the Research Division of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) since 1987 and research conducted by the Palila Restoration Project provided the scientific bases for developing a recovery strategy (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2006) and its adaptive implementation. The main objectives of the Palila Restoration Project were to develop techniques for reintroducing the palila to a portion of its former range, investigate the biological threats to the palila and its habitat, and synthesize the existing body of ecological knowledge concerning the palila. Five broad study themes formed the research framework: 1. Population reintroduction and restoration 2. Demography and breeding ecology 3. Habitat use and food ecology 4. Vegetation ecology 5. Predator ecology and management An element that was not included in the research program of the project was the ecology and management of introduced ungulates, which has historically constituted the single greatest threat to Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009). The absence of ungulate studies should not be interpreted to mean that we believe ungulates no longer damage palila habitat. Other research has already established that removing alien browsers and grazers from Mauna Kea is essential for the recovery of the subalpine forest on which palila now depend (Scowcroft and Giffin 1983; Scowcroft and Sakai 1983; Scowcroft and Conrad 1988, 1992; Hess et al. 1999). Moreover, the Federal District Court of Hawai‘i has ordered the State of Hawai‘i to remove browsing ungulates from Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009, Hess and Banko 2011). This final report summarizes results of Palila Restoration Project research from December 1996 to December 2012. Even though some results contained in this report have been published in scientific journals and other technical reports (Appendix I), they are included here to provide a comprehensive chronicle of all project activities.

Hawaii↗

Testing and use of radar water level sensors by the U.S. Geological Survey

The United States Geological Survey uses water-level (or stage) measurements to compute streamflow at over 8000 stream gaging stations located throughout the United States (waterwatch.usgs.gov, 2016). Streamflow (or discharge) is computed at five minute to hourly intervals from a relationship between water level and discharge that is uniquely determined for each station. The discharges are posted hourly to WaterWatch (waterwatch. usgs.gov) and are used by water managers to issue flood warnings and manage water supply and by other users of water information to make decisions. The accuracy of the water-level measurement is vital to the accuracy of the computed discharge. Because of the importance of water-level measurements, USGS has an accuracy policy of 0.02 ft or 0.2 percent of reading (whichever is larger) (Sauer and Turnipseed, 2010). Older technologies, such as float and shaft-encoder systems, bubbler systems and submersible pressure sensors, provide the needed accuracy but often require extensive construction to install and are prone to malfunctioning and damage from floating debris and sediment. No stilling wells or orifice lines need to be constructed for radar installations. During the last decade testing by the USGS Hydrologic Instrumentation Facility(HIF) found that radar water-level sensors can provide the needed accuracy for water-level measurements and because the sensor can be easily attached to bridges, reduce the construction required for installation. Additionally, the non-contact sensing of water level minimizes or eliminates damage and fouling from floating debris and sediment. This article is a brief summary of the testing efforts by the USGS HIF and field experiences with models of radar water-level sensors in streamflow measurement applications. Any use of trade names in this article is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Report↗

The economic effects of the HayWired Scenario using the association of Bay Area governments regional growth forecast—A focus on network disruption and resilience

This paper describes how impacts to infrastructure networks within the San Francisco Bay Area may exacerbate the effects of building damage and how policies addressing these networks can improve resilience before and after the earthquake. The analysis uses existing modeling techniques that underlie the Association of Bay Area Government’s (ABAG) 2015 regional economic forecast of the San Francisco Bay region, California to estimate how a moment magnitude (MW) 7.0 earthquake scenario along the Hayward Fault, HayWired, would change the trajectory of that forecast. The ABAG forecast released in January 2015 is built on the framework of a Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model for the San Francisco Bay region and projects growth in the bay area through 2040. Using the simulation tools in the REMI model, the analysis applies the direct output losses flowing from building damages from the HayWired scenario (estimated using the FEMA Hazus model) to ABAG’s economic and demographic 2015 regional forecast. Also the analysis estimates direct, indirect, and induced effects on gross regional product (GRP), employment and population, and also highlights the effects of the physical infrastructure damage to roads, bridges, and rail to the region’s economy. Communications infrastructure, if resilient or restored, can help counteract the losses generated by building and transportation network damage. The REMI model results show that in the first year, employment would drop by almost half a million jobs, whereas GRP would decline by 8 percent. The two counties near the epicenter of the earthquake would have greater losses, of 15 percent in jobs and 13 percent in GRP. Counties with less physical damage may still have economic slowdowns due to transportation disruption. Much of the economy could recover within a few years, but a full return to the projected trajectory could take more than five years for the region and closer to a decade for the most severely affected counties. Recovery and rebuilding investments will be crucial to repairing the economic base of the region and returning it to its projected growth trajectory. State and local policies, as well as business and personal preparedness and employer flexibility in allowing remote work can reduce the length and severity of effects. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses using the model identify some critical factors that would lead to different levels of change. For example, a shortage of construction workers could result in a deeper, longer recession as rebuilding is postponed. Should major technology employers decide to relocate substantial portions of operations or expand outside of the region, the recovery period from the earthquake induced recession could stretch to six or seven years and the region’s trajectory could be permanently damped relative to the ABAG 2015 forecast for 2040.

Conference Paper↗

Evaluation of the sustainability of deep groundwater as an arsenic-safe resource in the Bengal Basin

Tens of millions of people in the Bengal Basin region of Bangladesh and India drink groundwater containing unsafe concentrations of arsenic. This high-arsenic groundwater is produced from shallow (<100 m) depths by domestic and irrigation wells in the Bengal Basin aquifer system. The government of Bangladesh has begun to install wells to depths of >150 m where groundwater arsenic concentrations are nearly uniformly low, and many more wells are needed, however, the sustainability of deep, arsenic-safe groundwater has not been previously assessed. Deeper pumping could induce downward migration of dissolved arsenic, permanently destroying the deep resource. Here, it is shown, through quantitative, large-scale hydrogeologic analysis and simulation of the entire basin, that the deeper part of the aquifer system may provide a sustainable source of arsenic-safe water if its utilization is limited to domestic supply. Simulations provide two explanations for this result: deep domestic pumping only slightly perturbs the deep groundwater flow system, and substantial shallow pumping for irrigation forms a hydraulic barrier that protects deeper resources from shallow arsenic sources. Additional analysis indicates that this simple management approach could provide arsenic-safe drinking water to >90% of the arsenic-impacted region over a 1,000-year timescale. This insight may assist water-resources managers in alleviating one of the world's largest groundwater contamination problems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Sage-grouse population dynamics are adversely impacted by overabundant feral horses

In recent decades, feral horse ( Equus caballus ; horse) populations increased in sagebrush ( Artimesia spp.) ecosystems, especially within the Great Basin, to the point of exceeding maximum appropriate management levels (AML max ), which were set by land administrators to balance resource use by feral horses, livestock, and wildlife. Concomitantly, greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) are sagebrush obligates that have experienced population declines within these same arid environments as a result of steady and continued loss of seasonal habitats. Although a strong body of research indicates that overabundant populations of horses degrade sagebrush ecosystems, empirical evidence linking horse abundance to sage-grouse population dynamics is missing. Within a Bayesian framework, we employed state-space models to estimate population rate of change ( λ ) using 15 years (2005–2019) of count surveys of male sage-grouse at traditional breeding grounds (i.e., leks) as a function of horse abundance relative to AML max and other environmental covariates (e.g., wildfire, precipitation, % sagebrush cover). Additionally, we employed a post hoc impact-control design to validate existing AML max values as related to sage-grouse population responses, and to help control for environmental stochasticity and broad-scale oscillations in sage-grouse abundance. On average, for every 50% increase in horse abundance over AML max , our model predicted an annual decline in sage-grouse abundance by 2.6%. Horse abundance at or below AML max coincided with sage-grouse λ estimates that were consistent with trends at non-horse areas elsewhere in the study region. Thus, AML max , as a whole, appeared to be set adequately in preventing adverse effects to sage-grouse populations. Results indicated 76%, 97%, and >99% probability of sage-grouse population decline relative to controls when horse numbers are 2, 2.5, and ≥3 times over AML max , respectively. As of 2019, horse herds exceeded AML max in Nevada, USA, by >4 times on average across all horse management areas. If feral horse populations continue to grow at current rates unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced within horse-occupied areas by >70.0% by 2034 (15-year projection), on average compared to 21.2% estimated for control sites. A monitoring framework that improves on estimating horse abundance and identifying responses of sage-grouse and other key indicator species (plant and animal) would be beneficial to guide management decisions that promote co-occurrence of horses with sensitive wildlife and livestock within landscapes subjected to multiple uses. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

Nevada↗

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Paluxy aquifer in the vicinity of Landfills 1 and 3, U.S. Air Force Plant 4, Fort Worth, Texas

Ground-water contamination of the surficial terrace alluvial aquifer has occurred at U.S. Air Force Plant 4, a government-owned, contractor-operated facility, northwest of Fort Worth, Texas. A poorly constructed monitoring well, P–22M, open to the underlying middle zone of the Paluxy aquifer was installed at landfill 3, October 1987, allowing leakage of contaminated ground water to reach the Paluxy aquifer. This well was plugged and abandoned in November 1995. Additionally, volatile organic compounds have been detected in fractures in the Goodland-Walnut confining unit, the hydrogeologic unit separating the terrace alluvial aquifer from the underlying Paluxy aquifer, beneath the western part of landfill 1. Volatile organic compounds in concentrations near the analytical detection limit were detected in the upper Paluxy prior to the drilling of well P–22M. The ground-water-flow simulation model described in this report was developed to examine the best logistically feasible location to install recovery wells to capture the low concentration (less than 100 micrograms per liter) trichloroethylene plume beneath landfills 1 and 3 (west Paluxy plume). Once the recovery wells were installed (1996), the simulation model was recalibrated with new data. This report documents the capture area of the installed recovery wells. Four geologic units are pertinent to this site-specific model. From oldest to youngest, these are the Glen Rose Formation, Paluxy Formation, Walnut Formation, and Goodland Limestone. The Glen Rose Formation is relatively impermeable in the study area and forms the confining unit underlying the Paluxy Formation. The Paluxy Formation forms the Paluxy aquifer, which is a public drinking water supply for the City of White Settlement. The Walnut Formation and Goodland Limestone form the Goodland-Walnut confining unit overlying the Paluxy aquifer. Near landfill 3, gamma-ray logs indicate three distinct zones of the Paluxy Formation; upper, middle, and lower. The formation is about 170-feet thick near landfill 3, and each zone is about 57-feet thick. Two steady-state simulations using the computer program MODFLOW were analyzed using the particle-tracking computer program, MODPATH. One simulation is the calibration simulation using Paluxy aquifer water-level data for May 1993. The second simulation includes the installed recovery wells. A variably spaced grid was designed for the model. The smallest grid cells, 25 by 25 feet, are in the vicinity of landfills 1 and 3. The largest cells, 4,864.5 by 1,441.5 feet, are at the northwestern corner of the model grid near the Parker-Tarrant County line. The modeling was accomplished with three layers representing the upper, middle, and lower zones of the Paluxy aquifer. Particles, which represent contaminant molecules moving in solution with the ground water, were tracked from well P–22M and an area below landfill 1, at the top of the upper zone of the Paluxy aquifer, for 9 years (forward tracking). The forward tracking estimates where contaminants might move by advection from 1987 to 1996. Analysis of backward tracking from the new recovery wells indicates that the simulated contributing area to the recovery wells intercepts the contaminant plume, minimizing off-site migration of the west Paluxy plume. To determine the effectiveness of the recovery wells, monitoring wells southeast of Building 14 have been installed (1996–97) for sampling.

Texas↗

Occurrence and distribution of trace elements in snow, streams, and streambed sediments, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Alaska, 2002-2003

Cape Krusenstern National Monument is located in Northwest Alaska. In 1985, an exchange of lands and interests in lands between the Northwest Alaska Native Association and the United States resulted in a 100-year transportation system easement for 19,747 acres in the monument. A road was then constructed along the easement from the Red Dog Mine, a large zinc concentrate producer and located northeast of the monument, through the monument to the coast and a port facility. Each year approximately 1.3 million tonnes of zinc and lead concentrate are transported from the Red Dog Mine via this access road. Concern about the possible deposition of cadmium, lead, zinc and other trace elements in the monument was the basis of a cooperative project with the National Park Service. Concentrations of dissolved cadmium, dissolved lead, and dissolved zinc from 28 snow samples from a 28 mile by 16 mile grid were below drinking water standards. In the particulate phase, approximately 25 percent of the samples analyzed for these trace elements were higher than the typical range found in Alaska soils. Boxplots of concentrations of these trace elements, both in the dissolved and particulate phase, indicate higher concentrations north of the access road, most likely due to the prevailing southeast wind. The waters of four streams sampled in Cape Krusenstern National Monument are classified as calcium bicarbonate. Trace-element concentrations from these streams were below drinking water standards. Median concentrations of 39 trace elements from streambed sediments collected from 29 sites are similar to the median concentrations of trace elements from the U.S. Geological Survey?s National Water-Quality Assessment database. Statistical differences were noted between trace-element concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc at sites along the access road and sites north and south of the access road; concentrations along the access road being higher than north or south of the road. When normalized to 1 percent organic carbon, the concentrations of these trace elements are not expected to be toxic to aquatic life when compared to criteria established by the Canadian government and other recent research.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characterizing infiltration through a mine-waste dump using electrical geophysical and tracer-injection methods, Clear Creek County, Colorado

Infiltration of surface water through mine waste can be an important or even dominant source of contaminants in a watershed. The Waldorf mine site in Clear Creek County, Colorado, is typical of tens of thousands of small mines and prospects on public lands throughout the United States. In this study, electromagnetic (EM) conductivity and direct current (dc) resistivity surveys were conducted in tandem with a NaCl tracer study to delineate ground-water flow paths through a mine-waste dump and adjacent wetland area. The tracer was used to tag adit water infiltrating from braided channels flowing over the top of the dump to seeps at the base of the dump. Infiltration from the braided channels had a maximum flow rate of 92 m/day and a hydraulic conductivity of 1.6 &times; 10 4 cm 3 /s. After rerouting of adit flow around the waste dump, discharge at some of the largest seeps was reduced, although not all seepage was eliminated entirely. Integrating results of the tracer study with those of the EM and dc geophysical surveys revealed two main flow paths of ground water, one beneath the dump and one through the dump. The main source of water to the first flow path is deeper ground water emerging from the fault zone beneath the collapsed adit. This flow path travels beneath the waste dump and appears to have been unaffected by rerouting of the adit discharge around the waste dump. The source of the second flow path is infiltration of adit water from braided channels flowing over the top of the dump, which is intermediate in depth and flows through the center of the waste dump. Following rerouting of adit flow, discharge to seeps at the toe of the dump along this flow path was reduced by as much as two-thirds, although not eliminated entirely. Improved understanding of ground-water flow paths through this abandoned mine site is important in developing effective remediation strategies to target sources of metals emanating from the adit, waste dump, and contaminated wetland area. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government.

Colorado↗

Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system: A pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington

A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between cross sections, and can generate working maps across a broad range of scales, for any selected area, and overlayed with easily updated cultural features. Local governments are aggressively collecting very-high-accuracy elevation data for numerous reasons; this not only lowers the cost and increases accuracy of flood maps, but also inherently boosts the level of community involvement in the mapping process. These elevation data are also ideal for hydraulic modeling, should an existing model be judged inadequate.

Washington↗

Findings and lessons learned from the assessment of the Mexico-United States transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers: The utility of social science in applied hydrologic research

Study Region This study region encompasses the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers which are shared between the states of Sonora (Mexico) and Arizona (US). Special regional considerations include a semi-arid climate, basin-fill aquifers with predominantly montane recharge areas, economic drivers in the mining, trade, and military sectors, groundwater-dependent cities with expanding cones of depression, interbasin groundwater transfers, ground- and surface-water contamination, and protected aquatic and riparian habitats that act as significant migration corridors for hundreds of species, including some that are threatened and endangered. Study Focus We focus on lessons learned from the hydrologic assessment of the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers. We conducted the work, in two phases: (1) laying the groundwork and (2) implementation. The “laying the groundwork” phase consisted of binational meetings with stakeholders and key actors (agencies and individuals), and the development of an understanding of the physical, institutional, historical, and socio-political context. This led to signing of the binational Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP) agreement in 2009 and detailed the process for cooperation and coordination in the assessment of shared aquifers. The implementation phase began with an agreement to proceed with the study of four “focus” aquifers (Santa Cruz, San Pedro, Mesilla (Conejos-Médanos in Mexico), and Hueco Bolson (Bolsón del Hueco in Mexico)) and development of associated technical teams. Though we do include a brief discussion of the lessons learned from the physical science portion of the study, the results have been described and published elsewhere. The bulk of the paper instead focuses on the findings and lessons learned from the integration of social-science perspectives into a largely physical-science based program, since there is a growing recognition of the need for this type of approach especially in the management and assessment of transboundary aquifers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region The Sonora-Arizona effort succeeded because both countries were adequately represented, and because of flexibility of skills and ability of teams comprising both university and government scientists. Teams included social and earth scientists. Including the social sciences was critical to research design and implementation, and to addressing the cultural, institutional, and socio-political contexts of transboundary aquifer assessment. Significant components of the continuing implementation phase include strategic planning, data compilation and analysis, cross-border integration of datasets, geophysical and geochemical surveys, and internal, peer, and stakeholder engagement.

Arizona, Sonora↗

Archive of bathymetry and backscatter data collected in 2014 nearshore Breton and Gosier Islands, Breton National Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana

As part of the Barrier Island Monitoring Project, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted nearshore geophysical surveys off Breton and Gosier Islands, Louisiana, in July and August of 2014. To assist the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) with restoration planning efforts, the USGS was tasked with answering fundamental questions about the physical environment of the southern Chandeleur Islands, including the geology, morphology, and oceanography. Baseline data needed to answer these questions were either insufficient or missing. The USGS conducted a comprehensive geologic investigation in the summer of 2014, collecting geophysical and sedimentological data. Breton Island, located at the southern end of the Chandeleur Island chain in southeastern Louisiana, was recognized as a natural, globally significant nesting sanctuary for several bird species and was established as the Breton National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in 1904. The areal extent of Breton Island has diminished 90 percent since 1920. Land loss is attributed to ongoing relative sea-level rise, diminished sediment supply, and storm impacts. The bird population on Breton Island has also declined over the years, most notably after Hurricane George in 1998 and after Hurricane Katrina in 2015; the latter completely submerged the island. Despite decreasing habitable acreage, migratory seabirds continue to return and nest on Breton Island. To prevent the island from being submerged in the future, and to protect, stabilize, and provide more nesting and foraging areas for the bird population, the USFWS proposed a restoration effort to rebuild Breton Island to its pre-Katrina footprint. This data series serves as an archive of processed interferometric swath and single-beam bathymetry data, and side-scan sonar data, collected in the nearshore of Breton and Gosier Islands, NWR, Louisiana. The data were collected during two USGS cruises (USGS Field Activity Numbers 2014-314-FA and 2014-317-FA) in July and August 2014. Geographic information system data products include a 100-meter-cell-size interpolated bathymetry grid, trackline maps, and point data files. Additional files include error analysis maps, Field Activity Collection System logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata. NOTE: These data are scientific in nature and are not to be used for navigation. Any use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Louisiana↗

Groundwater flow in the Brunswick/Glynn County area, Georgia, 2000-04

An existing regional steady-state model for coastal Georgia, and parts of South Carolina and Florida, was revised to evaluate the local effects of pumping on the migration of high chloride (saline) water in the Upper Floridan aquifer located in the Brunswick/Glynn County, Georgia (Ga.) area. Revisions were focused on enhancing the horizontal and vertical resolution of the regional model grid in the vicinity of saline water. Modifications to the regional model consisted of (1) limiting grid size to a maximum of 500 feet (ft) per side in the vicinity of chloride contamination; (2) representing the upper and lower Brunswick aquifers with distinct model layers; (3) similarly, representing upper and lower water-bearing zones of the Upper Floridan aquifer with distinct model layers in Glynn and Camden Counties, Ga.; and (4) establishing new hydraulic-property zones in the Upper Floridan aquifer. The revised model simulated steady-state conditions that were assumed to exist during 2000 and 2004. Calibration of the revised steady-state model using pumping rates from 2000 indicates a "good" match (&plusmn;10 ft) based on 181 observations, with median residuals (simulated minus observed water levels) in each of the active model layers ranging from -8.62 to 4.67 ft, and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 10.9 to 11.4 ft. In the Brunswick/Glynn County area, groundwater-level residuals in the upper water-bearing zone of the Upper Floridan aquifer (layer 7) indicate an "excellent" match (&plusmn;5 ft) based on 41 observations with a median residual of -0.35 ft and RMSE of 4.32 ft. Calibration of the revised steady-state model using 2004 pumping rates and adjusted specified-head input values in the Floridan aquifer system indicates a "good" match (-10 ft) based on 88 observations, with median residuals in each of the active model layers ranging from -6.31 to -2.05 ft, and RMSE ranging from -6.95 to 14.5 ft. In the Brunswick/Glynn County area, groundwater-level residuals in the upper water-bearing zone of the Upper Floridan aquifer (layer 7) indicate an "excellent" match (&plusmn;5 ft) based on 32 observations with a median residual of -1.50 ft and RMSE of 5.34 ft. Simulated potentiometric surfaces for 2000 and 2004 indicate coastward groundwater flow in the Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers influenced by pumping centers at Savannah, Jesup, and Brunswick, Ga., and indicate steep potentiometric gradients to the west and north of the Gulf Trough. In the Brunswick/Glynn County area, simulated industrial production wells located north of downtown Brunswick intercept local groundwater flow in the upper and lower water-bearing zones of the Upper Floridan aquifer and have created a cone of depression that locally alters the regional coastward flow direction. Maps of simulated water-level change during the 2000-04 period show differences in groundwater levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer that range from -2.5 ft to more than 5 ft in areas of coastal Georgia, and more than 20 ft near the Georgia-Florida State Line. Positive values indicate higher simulated water levels during 2004 than during 2000, which were caused by reduced pumping in the Upper Floridan aquifer prompted by the shutdown of a paper mill near the southern model boundary in 2002 and increased recharge following a prolonged drought during 1998-2002. Simulated potentiometric profiles for 2000 and 2004 were used to evaluate the potentiometric gradients in the upper water-bearing zone of the Upper Floridan aquifer (layer 7) near the chloride plume in the downtown Brunswick area. Four potentiometric profiles were constructed for 2000 to compare the simulated and observed water levels in 13 wells and were oriented outward from a primary well field. The simulated potentiometric gradients from the four profiles for 2000 ranged from 3.6 to 5.2 feet per mile (ft/mi) compared to observed values ranging from 4.1 to 5.6 ft/mi. The five potentiometric profiles constructed for 2004 allowed for a similar comparison using simulated and observed water levels in 18 wells. The simulated potentiometric gradients from the five profiles for 2000 ranged from 3.6 to 11.1 ft/mi compared to observed values ranging from 3.8 to 10.2 ft/mi. Simulated potentiometric gradients were higher for 2004 than for 2000 because of the inclusion of a well located within the cone of depression near downtown Brunswick. Composite-scaled sensitivities of the model parameters indicate the revised model is most sensitive to pumping rates, followed by the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the Upper Floridan aquifer for zones along coastal Georgia. The revised model is least sensitive to the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the confining units and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. For parameters defined by hydraulic-property zones in the upper and lower water-bearing zones of the Upper Floridan aquifer, such as horizontal hydraulic conductivity, model sensitivity was not as great in the Brunswick/Glynn County area as other areas along coastal Georgia. The model exhibited more sensitivity to these parameters however, than to parameters representing the majority of zones defining the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining units, which originally were assumed to govern upward migration of chloride contamination into this aquifer. Analysis of simulated water-budget components for 2000 and 2004 indicate that specified-head boundaries in the Floridan aquifer system to the south and southwest of the regional model area control about 70 percent of inflows and nearly 50 percent of outflows to the model region. Other water-budget components indicate an 80-million-gallon-per-day decrease in pumping from the Floridan aquifer system during this period.

Georgia↗

Use of chemical analysis and assays of semipermeable membrane devices extracts to assess the response of bioavailable organic pollutants in streams to urbanization in six metropolitan areas of the United States

Studies to assess the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems are being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The overall objectives of these studies are to (1) determine how hydrologic, geomorphic, water quality, habitat, and biological characteristics respond to land-use changes associated with urbanization in specific environmental settings, and (2) compare these responses across environmental settings. As part of an integrated assessment, semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed in streams along a gradient of urban land-use intensity in and around Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; and Denver-Fort Collins, Colorado, in 2003; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; and Portland, Oregon, in 2004. Sites were selected to avoid point-source discharge and to minimize natural variability within each of the six metropolitan areas. In addition to standard chemical analysis for hydrophobic organic contaminants, three assays were used to address mixtures and potential toxicity: (1) Fluoroscan provides an estimate of the total concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs); (2) the P450RGS assay indicates the presence and levels of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists; and (3) Microtox® measures toxicological effects on photo-luminescent bacteria. Of the 140 compounds targeted or identified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis in this study, 67 were not detected. In terms of numbers and types of compounds, the following were detected: 2 wood preservatives, 6 insecticides (parent compounds), 5 herbicides, 22 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 2 dibenzofurans, 4 polychlorinated biphenyls, 7 compounds associated with fragrances or personal care products, 4 steroids associated with wastewater, 5 polydibromated diphenyl ethers (flame retardants), 3 plasticizers, 3 antimicrobials/disinfectants, and 3 detergent metabolites. Of the 73 compounds detected and three assays utilized, 29 were detected in 25 percent or more of the streams and were strongly related to increases in urban intensity (defined as having a Spearman’s rho > 0.5 with percent urban land cover) in at least one of the six metropolitan areas investigated. These 29 endpoints included 16 PAHs, a wood preservative (pentachloroanisole), 2 insecticides (chlorpyrifos and chlordane), 3 herbicides (benfluralin, trifluralin, and dacthal), a synthetic musk (hexahydrohexamethylcyclopentabenzopyran, HHCB), 2 furans (methyldibenzofuran and benzo[b]naphtho[2,3-d]furan), and a flame retardant (BDE 47). In addition, the number of compounds detected and results of the Fluoroscan and P450RGS assays were strongly related to urban intensity. Average water concentrations estimated from SPMDs were compared to screening benchmarks for the protection of human health and aquatic life; of the 14 compounds with available benchmarks, 3 compounds (anthracene, dieldrin, and diazinon) exceeded those levels in one or more streams. Both dieldrin and anthracene exceeded their respective benchmarks in seven streams, and diazinon in only one stream. There were more exceedances in Milwaukee-Green Bay and Raleigh-Durham than in the other metropolitan areas, and there were no exceedances in Dallas-Fort Worth. The six metropolitan areas studied differed in the number and types of endpoints related to urban intensity, probably from a combination of factors governing source strength, transport, and fate of hydrophobic compounds. The number of endpoints strongly related to urban intensity ranged from 3 in Dallas-Fort Worth and Portland to 21 in Raleigh-Durham. High frequencies of detection and strong correlations with urban land cover for pyrogenic PAHs (such as unsubstituted 4-ringed PAHs) in all six metropolitan areas indicate that these compounds are an important component of urbanization, regardless of location. Pentachloroanisole, dibenzofurans, and petrogenic PAHs (alkylated PAHs and heterocyclic dibenzothiophenes) were frequently detected and strongly related to urban intensity in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Milwaukee-Green Bay, and Denver-Fort Collins. Two insecticides were related to urban intensity: chlorpyrifos in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, and Dallas-Fort Worth; and chlordane in Raleigh-Durham. Three herbicides were strongly related to urban intensity: trifluralin in Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham; benfluralin in Atlanta, and dacthal in Denver-Fort Collins. The detection frequencies for most wastewater indicator compounds were too low to establish relations with urban intensity. Of the wastewater compounds analyzed, HHCB in Raleigh-Durham and Denver-Fort Collins, and BDE 47 in Denver-Fort Collins and Dallas-Forth Worth, had the strongest relations with urban intensity. In addition to pyrogenic PAHs, levels of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists (as measured by the P450RGS assay) were strongly related to increasing urban intensity in all six metropolitan areas. PAHs were the only group of aryl hydrocarbon agonists consistently detected and related with urban intensity in all six metropolitan areas. It is unknown which compounds in the SPMDs caused the increased response in the P450RGS assay because the SPMDs likely contained many aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists not quantified by chemical analysis. It is clear that bioavailable, aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists increase in streams with increasing urban intensity in the basin. Potential toxicity mediated by this metabolic pathway should be considered in integrated assessments of the response of aquatic biota to urbanization.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Variable climate-growth relationships of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) among Sky Island mountain ranges in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA

The Great Basin is an arid province located in the interior western United States. The region encompasses millions of hectares and quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests comprise a minor portion of the total area. However, montane aspen forests play a disproportionately large role in providing ecosystem services in the region, including water retention, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and recreational uses. With warming temperatures, increasing evaporative demand, and heightened precipitation variability, the future of aspen has become a critical concern. Using dendroecological approaches, we assessed growth patterns of 20 aspen stands across three geographically isolated “sky island” mountain ranges spanning portions of the north-central Great Basin. We anticipated that the growth of Great Basin aspen would be strongly influenced by regional climatic patterns and largely in synchrony. Results revealed a more complex growth dynamic that varied among mountain ranges and across environmental gradients. In particular, aspen climate-growth relationships in the slightly dryer Ruby Mountains were strongly and positively correlated (r > 0.5) with previous fall to winter moisture availability. The Jarbidge Mountains had a positive but modest relationship with previous fall to winter moisture availability (r > 0.3). Climate-growth response in the Santa Rosa Mountains, the wettest range, showed no significant response to moisture availability during any time period examined but had greater tree-ring growth with warmer May temperatures. Although tree-ring centennial (1910 – 2010) growth trends were positive for all three mountain ranges, only the Santa Rosa Mountains maintained a positive recent growth trend (1970 – 2010). Moreover, distinct temporal shifts in tree growth-climate relationships in each mountain range suggest potentially unique aspen population adaptations to climate variability. For instance, in two of the mountain ranges, there was a shift from positive/neutral to negative growth relationships with temperature starting around the 1963 – 1987 time period, while tree growth also began simultaneously responding more positively to moisture availability. These growth shifts and observed enhanced sensitivities to monthly and seasonal climate variables over time may reflect dynamic tree growth responses caused by ongoing global climate change, but that may be tempered by local or regional factors, such as the relative availability and timing of soil moisture provided by spring snowmelt. A better understanding of biogeographic variation and causality in aspen growth could provide multiple management pathways governed by resilience characteristics in the face of future anthropogenic and climatic threats.

Nevada↗

Sediment studies in the Assabet River, central Massachusetts, 2003

From its headwaters in Westborough, Massachusetts, to its confluence with the Sudbury River, the 53-kilometer-long Assabet River passes through a series of small towns and mixed land-use areas. Along the way, wastewater-treatment plants release nutrient-rich effluents that contribute to the eutrophic state of this waterway. This condition is most obvious where the river is impounded by a series of dams that have sequestered large amounts of sediment and support rooted and floating macrophytes and epiphytic algae. The water in parts of these impoundments may also have low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, another symptom of eutrophication. All of the impoundments had relatively shallow maximum water depths, which ranged from approximately 2.4 to 3.4 meters, and all had extensive shallow areas. Sediment volumes estimated for the six impoundments ranged from approximately 380 cubic meters in the Aluminum City impoundment to 580,000 cubic meters in the Ben Smith impoundment. The other impoundments had sediment volumes of 120,000 cubic meters (Powdermill), 67,000 cubic meters (Gleasondale), 55,000 cubic meters (Hudson), and 42,000 cubic meters (Allen Street). The principal objective of this study was the determination of sediment volume, extent, and chemistry, in particular, the characterization of toxic inorganic and organic chemicals in the sediments. To determine the bulk-sediment chemical-constituent concentrations, more than one hundred sediment cores were collected in pairs from the six impoundments. One core from each pair was sampled for inorganic constituents and the other for organic constituents. Most of the cores analyzed for inorganics were sectioned to provide information on the vertical distribution of analytes; a subset of the cores analyzed for organics was also sectioned. Approximately 200 samples were analyzed for inorganic constituents and 100 for organics; more than 10 percent were quality-control replicate or blank samples. Maximum bulk-sediment phosphorus concentrations in surface samples from the impoundments increased along a downstream gradient, with the exception of samples from the last impoundment, where the concentrations decreased. In addition, the highest phosphorus concentrations were generally in the surface samples; this finding may prove helpful if surface dredging is selected as a means to control phosphorus release from sediments. There is no known relation, however, between bulk-sediment concentration of phosphorus and the concentrations of phosphorus available to biota. Potentially toxic metals, including arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc were frequently measured at concentrations that exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sediment-quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life and that occasionally exceeded Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection guidelines governing landfill disposal (reuse). Due to the effects of matrix interference and sample dilution on laboratory analyses, neither pesticides nor volatile organic compounds were detected at any sites. However, samples collected in other studies from nearby streams indicated the possibility that pesticides might have been detected in the impoundments if not for these analytical problems. Although polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations, as individual Aroclors, generally exceeded published U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guideline concentrations for potential effects on aquatic life, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guideline concentrations for human contact or the Massachusetts guidelines for landfill reuse were rarely exceeded. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, both individually and total, frequently were greater than guideline concentrations. Concentrations of total extractable petroleum hydrocarbons did not exceed Massachusetts guideline concentrations in any samples. When the sediment analytes from surface samples are considered togethe

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A baseline analysis of the distribution, host-range, and severity of the rust Puccinia Psidii in the Hawaiian islands, 2005-2010

Puccinia psidii was first described by Winter (1884) on guava ( Psidium guajava L.) in Brazil. The rust is still a major pest of native guava in Brazil and is often referred to as “guava rust” internationally. It is unusual among rust fungi because of its broad and ever-expanding host-range within the Myrtaceae plant family (Simpson et al . 2006). The pathogen is regarded as a major threat to Eucalyptus plantations and other Myrtaceae worldwide (Coutinho et al . 1998, Grgurinovic et al . 2006, Glen et al . 2007). Infections of leaves and meristems are particularly severe on susceptible seedlings, cuttings, young trees, and coppice, causing plants to be stunted and multi-branched, inhibiting normal growth and development, and sometimes causing death to young seedlings (Booth et al . 2000, Rayachhetry et al . 2001). The fungus has expanded its host-range in Brazil, affecting both native and introduced Myrtaceae (Coutinho et al . 1998). Since its discovery in 1884, P. psidii has continually been discovered to have an expanding host-range within the Myrtaceae, affecting hosts throughout much of South and Central America and the Caribbean. Spreading out originally from Brazil in 1884, the fungus has been reported on hosts in the following countries (first record in parentheses): Paraguay (1884), Uruguay (1889), Ecuador (1891), Colombia (1913), Puerto Rico (1913), Cuba (1926), Dominican Republic (1933), Venezuela (1934), Jamaica (1936), Argentina (1946), Dominica (1948), Trinidad and Tobago (1951), Guatemala (1968), United States (Florida; 1977), Mexico (1981), El Salvador (1987), and Costa Rica (1998) (Simpson et al . 2006). It is possible that P. psidii was present in El Salvador and Costa Rica prior to 1980, but was not reported until 1987 and 1998, respectively. Until recently, Puccinia psidii was restricted to the Neotropics, Mexico, and the state of Florida in the United States. While the rust has been present in Florida for over 30 years, only recently has it spread westward. Although possibly present earlier, P. psidii was found in California in November 2005 in a nursery in San Diego County on Myrtus communis and documented by a report in a nursery newsletter (Mellano 2006). Puccinia psidii was first found in Hawai`i on a young plant of `ōhi`a ( Metrosideros polymorpha ) in April 2005, in a nursery on the island of O`ahu (Killgore and Heu 2005; Uchida et al . 2006). The fungus subsequently spread to most islands of the Hawaiian chain, infecting `ōhi`a and other myrtaceous hosts (Hauff 2006, Anderson et al . 2007). P. psidii was first found in Japan in May 2007 on cultivated `ōhi`a (Kawanishi et al . 2009). Most recently, a rust identified as Uredo rangelii was discovered in April 2010 in New South Wales, Australia (Carnegie et al . 2010). This rust is closely related to Puccinia psidii and is part of the guava rust complex described by Simpson et al . (2006). Although treated as a separate species by Simpson et al. (2006), many authors now consider U. rangelii a synonym for U. psidii , which is the anamorph (asexual stage) of P. psidii , and therefore, the same species (Glen et al . 2007, Carnegie et al . 2010). Because of the large diversity of native Myrtaceae present in Australia, the number of Myrtaceae hosts attacked by species of the guava rust complex will likely grow now that U. rangelii has arrived and is spreading in the country. As of this writing (June 2011), 94 species of Myrtaceae have been identified as hosts of U. rangelii in the states of New South Wales and Queensland. Damage is severe on nearly one-third of the species affected, and 16 of these species are threatened or endangered native species (Secretary of Australia, May 2011). The presence of Puccinia psidii in Hawai`i is particularly alarming for at least two reasons: (1) M. polymorpha is the dominant overstory tree of the native forest, and (2) P. psidii is now established in the Pacific region, where numerous Myrtaceae species are native. Native ecosystems in Hawai`i and the Pacific could be seriously affected by the spread of P. psidii , as both native and introduced Myrtaceae are significant components of many different plant communities throughout the region (Glen et al. 2007). Because the guava rust complex (i.e., P. psidii and U. rangelii ) now attacks well over 100 species of Myrtaceae worldwide, it is currently a priority for international quarantine and import restrictions in an effort to prevent further spread among Australasian and Pacific Myrtaceae. Several different studies have been done to determine what degree of genetic variation exists between isolates of Puccinia psidii from many different host plants and many different locations (Langrell et al . 2008, Kawanishi et al . 2009, Kadooka 2010, Graça et al . 2011). So far, all of these studies have shown that all of the Hawaiian samples tested so far have had the same genetic composition. Given that the P. psidii strain in Hawai`i has continually been shown for over five years to lack genetic variation at microsatellite marker sites (which are believed to undergo relatively rapid genetic change), a baseline evaluation of incidence and severity should be especially valuable to provide comparisons with future conditions. Worldwide, 23 Neotropical species in 11 genera and 59 Australasian and Pacific species in 13 genera had been recorded as hosts of Puccinia psidii before 2010 (Simpson et al . 2006, Anderson et al . 2007). Of those 82 species known to be hosts elsewhere, 42 are cultivated or naturalized in Hawai`i. Because of its wide host-range and aggressive pathogenicity, rust disease caused by P. psidii poses a considerable disease threat to many native and cultivated Myrtaceae throughout the world (Coutinho et al . 1998, Booth et al . 2000, Simpson et al . 2006). However, there are few reports comparing the severity of rust infection on native, introduced, and cultivated Myrtaceae (Rayachhetry et al . 2001, Perez et al . 2010). Since government agencies and the public are concerned about the extent of the rust movement within and to Hawai`i (Loope and La Rosa 2008, Loope 2010), there is a need to better understand the incidence, severity, and distribution of P. psidii in Hawai`i. To address that need, this research project was initiated to survey forests, surrounding plant communities, botanical gardens, and commercial nurseries to detect the presence and severity of P. psidii rust infections throughout Hawai`i on plants in the Myrtaceae family. This study provides a baseline on the host distribution and severity to compare current and future impacts of rust infections caused by P. psidii on native, naturalized, and cultivated Myrtaceae in Hawai`i.

Hawai'i↗

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2012 Little Bear Fire, south-central New Mexico

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed of the debris-flow potential from 56 drainage basins burned by the Little Bear Fire in south-central New Mexico in June 2012. The Little Bear Fire burned approximately 179 square kilometers (km 2 ) (44,330 acres), including about 143 km2 (35,300 acres) of National Forest System lands of the Lincoln National Forest. Within the Lincoln National Forest, about 72 km 2 (17,664 acres) of the White Mountain Wilderness were burned. The burn area also included about 34 km 2 (8,500 acres) of private lands. Burn severity was high or moderate on 53 percent of the burn area. The area burned is at risk of substantial postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. A postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the Little Bear Fire was performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest. A set of two empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burn area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burn area. The models incorporate measures of areal burn extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. Relative hazard rankings of postwildfire debris flows were produced by summing the estimated probability and volume ranking to illustrate those areas with the highest potential occurrence of debris flows with the largest volumes. The probability that a drainage basin could produce debris flows and the volume of a possible debris flow at the basin outlet were estimated for three design storms: (1) a 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 27 millimeters (mm) (a 50 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); (2) a 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 42 mm (a 10 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); and (3) a 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 51 mm (a 4 percent chance of occurrence in any given year). Thirty-nine percent of the 56 drainage basins modeled have a high (greater than 80 percent) probability of debris flows in response to the 2-year design storm; 80 percent of the modeled drainage basins have a high probability of debris flows in response to the 25-year design storm. For debris-flow volume, 7 percent of the modeled drainage basins have an estimated debris-flow volume greater than 100,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) in response to the 2-year design storm; 9 percent of the drainage basins are included in the greater than 100,000 m 3 category for both the 10-year and the 25-year design storms. Drainage basins in the greater than 100,000 m 3 volume category also received the highest combined hazard ranking. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be needed prior to rainstorms within these drainage basins, their outlets, or areas downstream from these drainage basins within the 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico↗

Oyster model inventory: Identifying critical data and modeling approaches to support restoration of oyster reefs in coastal U.S. Gulf of Mexico waters

Executive Summary Along the coast of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) plays important ecological and economic roles. Commercial landings from this region account for more than 50 percent of all U.S. landings; these oyster reefs also provide varied ecosystem services, including nursery habitat for many fish and macroinvertebrate species, shoreline protection, and water-quality maintenance. Declining trends in both total oyster production and functional reef area across this region have spurred investment in restoration of oyster resources, with specific calls for restoration projects to develop a network of reefs and identify broodstock and sanctuary reef restoration sites. Decision making related to restoration and establishment of a network of oyster reefs in the Gulf of Mexico requires information on both the environment and the effects of the environment on the oyster life cycle (including larval movement, survival, oyster recruitment, reproduction, growth, and mortality). Here, we examined the current state of data and model development in this region with the goal of providing an overview of oyster modeling approaches and an inventory of available data and existing oyster models. This report is meant to provide an overview to managers for understanding existing efforts and identify a path forward to most efficiently inform oyster resource management and restoration planning in moving from a single reef management approach to a reef network management approach. Numerous models related to some aspect of the oyster life cycle have been built, calibrated, and validated for various Gulf of Mexico estuaries over the last few decades (over 30 models identified). These models, which could inform site restoration, can be classified into four approaches: (1) oyster Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models; (2) larval transport models; (3) on-reef oyster models that may include oyster growth, mortality and reproduction, and substrate persistence; and (4) coupled larval transport on-reef metapopulation models that simulate the entire oyster life cycle. The data requirements, model complexity and assumptions, and transferability vary by approach. Specifically, some approaches may offer greater accessibility, flexibility, and transferability spatially or temporally, with minimal data input, but only provide broad information to support site selection. In contrast, other approaches may require significant site-specific data for their construction and validation but may provide more accurate and location-specific data to support site selection for broodstock reefs. Regardless of modeling approach used, data on environmental drivers, such as salinity, water temperature, or water flow impacting oyster metabolism and movement, are required at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. While numerous data collection platforms, environmental models, and research products exist within Gulf of Mexico estuaries to provide important environmental data to use as drivers in the oyster models, significant variability in temporal and spatial coverage of the data, and variation in the availability of future condition models, exists across estuaries. This variation influences the spatial and temporal scales at which oyster models may be developed and impacts the calibration and validation of the oyster models within a given estuary, affecting its potential ability to address specific management or restoration questions. While multiple modeling approaches exist for informing site selection of broodstock or sanctuary oyster reefs, the development, calibration, and validation of a single modeling platform presents the most efficient, transferable, and useful tool for managers across the Gulf of Mexico. The development of a single modeling platform would involve using standardized input variables, governing equations, and assumptions for the modeled oyster processes and outputs, and for standardized calibration and validation procedures that could be applied within each estuary. The differences among estuary applications would require substituting only estuary-specific environmental data, and calibrating and validating the modeling approach with local oyster data. Two modeling approaches likely to be useful include (1) development of a general geospatial HSI modeling framework that could be applied consistently across estuaries and (2) a mechanistic coupled larval transport on-reef metapopulation model requiring only estuarine specific calibration and hydrodynamic models. Both approaches benefit from existing work across multiple Gulf of Mexico estuaries and could provide valuable support for oyster restoration, but may differ in their ability to address specific questions related to oyster restoration. HSI models specifically guide restoration practitioners in determining suitable habitat based on available data. The HSI approach, while currently more widely used and accessible, requires more development of larval suitability and larval input and output components in order to inform reef connectivity. A metapopulation approach considering the full oyster life cycle that simulates both on-reef oyster growth, mortality, reproduction, substrate persistence, and larval transport (ideally with larval growth and mortality) would provide the greatest detail and level of understanding but requires significant up-front investment. The larval oyster model and on-reef oyster model are usually developed independently for systems, although the two approaches can be coupled to represent the entire oyster life cycle in order to characterize and assess a reef metapopulation. This approach may be less accessible and much more data-intensive, however, and it requires some expertise to run and apply to inform oyster resource management. Ultimately, the development of single modeling platforms for each of these approaches would provide flexible tools applicable across all Gulf of Mexico oyster supporting estuaries. By using a single platform for model development, testing, calibrating and validating, and evaluation of modeled future scenarios, oyster restoration scientists and managers would not only be able to examine different scenario outcomes within a single estuary, but could also have comparable modeled results to evaluate potential outcomes, across estuaries and regions, that are not confounded by varying modeled data inputs, governing equations, assumptions, or user judgement.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗