USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “New Forests”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

Hurricane Wilma's impact on overall soil elevation and zones within the soil profile in a mangrove forest

Soil elevation affects tidal inundation period, inundation frequency, and overall hydroperiod, all of which are important ecological factors affecting species recruitment, composition, and survival in wetlands. Hurricanes can dramatically affect a site's soil elevation. We assessed the impact of Hurricane Wilma (2005) on soil elevation at a mangrove forest location along the Shark River in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Using multiple depth surface elevation tables (SETs) and marker horizons we measured soil accretion, erosion, and soil elevation. We partitioned the effect of Hurricane Wilma's storm deposit into four constituent soil zones: surface (accretion) zone, shallow zone (0–0.35 m), middle zone (0.35–4 m), and deep zone (4–6 m). We report expansion and contraction of each soil zone. Hurricane Wilma deposited 37.0 (± 3.0 SE) mm of material; however, the absolute soil elevation change was + 42.8 mm due to expansion in the shallow soil zone. One year post-hurricane, the soil profile had lost 10.0 mm in soil elevation, with 8.5 mm of the loss due to erosion. The remaining soil elevation loss was due to compaction from shallow subsidence. We found prolific growth of new fine rootlets (209 ± 34 SE g m −2 ) in the storm deposited material suggesting that deposits may become more stable in the near future (i.e., erosion rate will decrease). Surficial erosion and belowground processes both played an important role in determining the overall soil elevation. Expansion and contraction in the shallow soil zone may be due to hydrology, and in the middle and bottom soil zones due to shallow subsidence. Findings thus far indicate that soil elevation has made substantial gains compared to site specific relative sea-level rise, but data trends suggest that belowground processes, which differ by soil zone, may come to dominate the long term ecological impact of storm deposit.

Florida↗

New Jersey StreamStats: A web application for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics

StreamStats is an interactive, map-based web application from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics and watershed characteristics for both gaged and ungaged sites on streams throughout New Jersey. Users can determine flood magnitude and frequency, monthly flow-duration, monthly low-flow frequency statistics, and watershed characteristics for ungaged sites by selecting a point along a stream, or they can obtain this information for streamgages by selecting a streamgage location on the map. StreamStats provides several additional tools useful for water-resources planning and management, as well as for engineering purposes. StreamStats is available for most states and some river basins through a single web portal. Streamflow statistics for water resources professionals include the 1-percent annual chance flood flow (100-year peak flow) used to define flood plain areas and the monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow (M7D10Y) used in water supply management and studies of recreation, wildlife conservation, and wastewater dilution. Additionally, watershed or basin characteristics, including drainage area, percent area forested, and average percent of impervious areas, are commonly used in land-use planning and environmental assessments. These characteristics are easily derived through StreamStats.

New Jersey↗

Environmental setting and its relations to water quality in the Kanawha River basin

The Kanawha River and its major tributary, the New River, drain 12,233 mi2 in West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Altitude ranges from about 550 ft to more than 4,700 ft. The Kanawha River Basin is mountainous, and includes parts of three physiographic provinces, the Blue Ridge (17 percent), Valley and Ridge (23 percent), and Appalachian Plateaus (60 percent). In the Appalachian Plateaus Province, little of the land is flat, and most of the flat land is in the flood plains and terraces of streams; this has caused most development in this part of the basin to be near streams. The Blue Ridge Province is composed of crystalline rocks, and the Valley and Ridge and Appalachian Plateaus Provinces contain both carbonate and clastic rocks. Annual precipitation ranges from about 36 in. to more than 60 in., and is orographically affected, both locally and regionally. Average annual air temperature ranges from about 43ºF to about 55ºF, and varies with altitude but not physiographic province. Precipitation is greatest in the summer and least in the winter, and has the least seasonal variation in the Blue Ridge Province. In 1990, the population of the basin was about 870,000, of whom about 25 percent lived in the Charleston, W. Va. metropolitan area. About 75 million tons of coal were mined in the Kanawha River Basin in 1998. This figure represents about 45 percent of the coal mined in West Virginia, and about seven percent of the coal mined in the United States. Dominant forest types in the basin are Northern Hardwood, Oak-Pine, and Mixed Mesophytic. Agricultural land use is more common in the Valley and Ridge and Blue Ridge Provinces than in the Appalachian Plateaus Province. Cattle are the principal agricultural products of the basin. Streams in the Blue Ridge Province and Allegheny Highlands have the most runoff in the basin, and streams in the Valley and Ridge Province and the southwestern Appalachian Plateaus have the least runoff. Streamflow is greatest in the spring and least in the autumn. About 61 percent of the basin's population use surface water from public supply for their domestic needs; about 30 percent use self-supplied ground water, and about nine percent use ground water from public supply. In 1995, total withdrawal of water in the basin was about 1,130 Mgal/d. Total consumptive use was about 118 Mgal/d. Surface water in the Blue Ridge Province is usually dilute (less than 100 mg/L dissolved solids) and well aerated. Dissolved- solids concentrations in streams of the Valley and Ridge Province at low flow are typically greater (150-180 mg/L) than those in the Blue Ridge Province. The Appalachian Plateaus Province contains streams with the most dilute (less than 30 mg/L dissolved solids) and least dilute (more than 500 mg/L dissolved solids) water in the basin. Coal mining has degraded more miles of streams in the basin than any other land use. Streams that receive coal-mine drainage may be affected by sedimentation, and typically contain high concentrations of sulfate, iron, and manganese. Other major water-quality issues include inadequate domestic sewage treatment, present and historic disposal of industrial wastes, and logging, which results in the addition of sediment, nutrients, and other constituents to the water. One hundred eighteen fish species are reported from the Kanawha River system downstream from Kanawha Falls. Of these, 15 are listed as possible, probable, or known introductions. None of these fish species is endemic to the Kanawha River Basin. The New River system has only 46 native fishes, the lowest ratio of native fishes to drainage area of any river system in the eastern United States, and the second-highest proportion of endemic fish species (eight of 46) of any river system in the eastern United States.

North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Scientific Reports↗

Movements of four native Hawaiian birds across a naturally fragmented landscape

Animals often increase their fitness by moving across space in response to temporal variation in habitat quality and resource availability, and as a result of intra and inter-specific interactions. The long-term persistence of populations and even whole species depends on the collective patterns of individual movements, yet animal movements have been poorly studied at the landscape level. We quantified movement behavior within four native species of Hawaiian forest birds in a complex lava-fragmented landscape: Hawai‛i ‘amakihi Chlorodrepanis virens , ‘oma‘o Myadestes obscurus , ‘apapane Himatione sanguinea , and ‘i‘iwi Drepanis coccinea . We evaluated the relative importance of six potential intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of movement behavior and patch fidelity: 1) forest fragment size, 2) the presence or absence of invasive rats ( Rattus sp.), 3) season, 4) species, 5) age, and 6) sex. The study was conducted across a landscape of 34 forest fragments varying in size from 0.07 to 12.37 ha, of which 16 had rats removed using a treatment-control design. We found the largest movements in the nectivorous ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi, intermediate levels in the generalist Hawai‛i ‘amakihi, and shortest average movement for the ‘oma‘o, a frugivore. We found evidence for larger patch sizes increasing patch fidelity only in the ‘oma‘o, and an effect of rat-removal increasing patch fidelity of Hawai‛i ‘amakihi only after two years of rat-removal. Greater movement during the non-breeding season was observed in all species, and season was an important factor in explaining higher patch fidelity in the breeding season for ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi. Sex was important in explaining patch fidelity in ‘oma‘o only, with males showing higher patch fidelity. Our results provide new insights into how these native Hawaiian species will respond to a changing environment, including habitat fragmentation and changing distribution of threats from climate change.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

Why are non-native plants successful? Consistently fast economic traits and novel origin jointly explain abundance across US ecoregions

Are non-native plants abundant because they are non-native, and have advantages over native plants, or because they possess ‘fast’ resource strategies, and have advantages in disturbed environments? This question is central to invasion biology but remains unanswered. We quantified the relative importance of resource strategy and biogeographic origin in 69 441 plots across the conterminous United States containing 11 280 plant species. Non-native species had faster economic traits than native species in most plant communities (77%, 86% and 82% of plots for leaf nitrogen concentration, specific leaf area, and leaf dry matter content). Non-native species also had distinct patterns of abundance, but these were not explained by their fast traits. Compared with functionally similar native species, non-native species were (1) more abundant in plains and deserts, indicating the importance of biogeographic origin, and less abundant in forested ecoregions, (2) were more abundant where co-occurring species had fast traits, for example due to disturbance, and (3) showed weaker signals of local environmental filtering. These results clarify the nature of plant invasion: Although non-native plants have consistently fast economic traits, other novel characteristics and processes likely explain their abundance and, therefore, impacts.

conterminous United States↗

The coral reef of South Moloka'i, Hawai'i— Portrait of a sediment-threatened fringing reef

Moloka‘i, with the most extensive coral reef in the main Hawaiian Islands, is especially sacred to Hina, the Goddess of the Moon. As Hinaalo, she is the Mother of the Hawaiian people; as Hinapuku‘a, she is the Goddess of Fishermen; and in the form Hina‘opuhalako‘a, she is the Goddess who gave birth to coral, coral reefs, and all spiny marine organisms. Interdependence between the reef’s living resources, the people, and their cosmology was the basis for management of Moloka‘i’s coastal waters for over a thousand years. The ancient residents of Moloka‘i built the greatest concentration of fishponds known anywhere, but their mastery of mariculture, something needed now more than ever, was lost after near genocide from exotic Western diseases. Subsequent destruction of the native vegetation for exotic cattle, goats, pigs, sugar cane, and pineapple caused soil erosion and sedimentation on the reef flat. This masterful volume clearly documents that soil washing into the sea is the major threat to the reef today. Abandoned fishponds, choked with sediment, now act as barriers and mud traps, making damage to corals less than it would otherwise would have been. The role of mud and freshwater from land in preventing coral reef growth, clearly articulated in Charles Darwin’s first book, The Structure and Distribution of Coral Reefs, is the major theme of this book. All around the tropics, coral reefs have died from huge increases in terrestrial sedimentation that resulted from destruction of hillside forests for cash-crop agriculture and pastures in the colonial era, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the islands of the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. It is obvious that one cannot manage the coastal zone as a unit separate from the watersheds that drain into it. Yet there has been surprisingly little comprehensive scientific study of these impacts. In this landmark volume, U.S. Geological Survey researchers and their colleagues have developed and applied a remarkably integrated approach to the reefs of Moloka‘i, combining geology, oceanography, and biology to provide an in-depth understanding of the processes that have made these reefs grow and that now limit them. They have joined old fashioned natural history of marine animals and plants with study of the geological evolution of the island, hydrology, meteorology, and land-use history, to an arsenal of new methods of remote sensing, including aerial photography, laser ranging, infrared thermal mapping, seismic reflection, in-situ instrumentation to measure chemical parameters of water quality, and direct measurements of the physical driving forces affecting them—such as wave energy, currents, sedimentation, and sediment transport. They provide a level of documentation and insight that has never been available for any reef before. A remarkable feature of this book is that it is aimed at the people of Moloka‘i to inform them of what is happening to their reef and what they might do to preserve their vital resources. The scientific data and interpretations are expressed in unusually clear and comprehensible language, free of the professional jargon that makes most technical publications impenetrable to the public that most needs to know about them, yet without loss of scientific rigor. Here readers will see clearly explained the whole path of soil loss, from the impacts of wild pigs and goats at higher elevations, deforestation of the hills for cattle pasture at lower levels, and denudation of low lands for cash crops. The resulting biological impoverishment has bared the soils, which wash away in flash storms, smothering the inshore reefs, whose growth was already limited because they had grown right up to sea level. The data in this book show that the mud doesn’t get far if it is washed into the sea during a big storm with heavy waves. Afterwards this mud keeps getting stirred up by every succeeding storm, spreading and affecting corals over wider areas until it is finally washed out of the system—and that only happens if there is no more new mud washing onto the reef. I saw this myself a few years ago in Pila‘a Bay on Kaua‘i, where a bulldozed hillside of abandoned sugar cane fields had slumped right on top of a coral reef following exceptional rains. Years later, the algae species were zoned in a way that clearly mapped the distribution of nutrients washed into the bay, most likely from fertilizers bound to the eroded soils. That pattern closely mimics, on a small scale, that shown in Moloka‘i in this volume, where the inner reef is covered with algae, zoned by species in a way that points to land-based sources of nutrients, while the outermost reef slope is still coral dominated, and the deep algae seem to indicate deep-water nutrient upwelling. What of the future? The Hawaiian Islands have been exceptionally fortunate to be spared the worst coral heatstroke death from high temperatures, at least to date. So far, the worst global warming impacts have luckily been small in this region, and the small number of people on Moloka‘i has kept population densities, and sewage pollution, low compared to the more developed islands. Nutrients from years of sugar and pineapple fertilization, and the washing of this soil onto the reefs, show clear influences on the pattern of algae on the reef. Even at very low levels of nutrients, well below that which drives algae to smother and kill coral reefs, more algae is present. Soil erosion control is therefore the key to better management of both nutrients and turbidity on Moloka‘i reefs. To that end land management actions mentioned in this book, such as suppressing wild fires and eliminating wild goats and pigs, could be made even more effective if supplemented by active erosion control using plants whose roots bind the soil effectively in place. Through all of these efforts, Hina and the people of Moloka‘i could be happy again!

Hawaii↗

Rocky road in the Rockies: Challenges to biodiversity

To people worldwide, the Rocky Mountains of the United States and Canada represent a last bastion of nature in its purest and rawest form-unspoiled forests teeming with elk and deer stalked by mountain lions and grizzly bears; bald eagles nesting near lakes and rivers; fat, feisty native trout in rushing mountain streams; and dazzling arrays of wildflowers in lush meadows. In fact, the total biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains is considerable, with relatively high diversity in birds, mammals, butterflies, reptiles, and conifers (Ricketts et al. 1999) and with geographic variation in the flora and fauna of alpine, forest, foothill, and adjacent shortgrass prairie and shrub communities over more than 20 degrees of latitude and more than 10' of longitude. Although the biodiversity of most North American regions has declined because of anthropogenic influences, the perception remains that the biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains is intact. This view exists in part because the Rocky Mountains are remote from urban centers, in part because so much of the land comprises protected areas such as national parks and wilderness areas, and in part because of wishful thinking-that nothing bad could happen to the biodiversity that is so much a part of the history, national self-image, legends, nature films, and movies of the United States and Canada. Despite modern technology and the homogenization and globalization of their cities and towns, at heart North Americans still regard their land as the New World, with pristine nature and untamed landscapes epitomized by the Rockies. The reality is that the biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains has not been free of anthropogenic influences since the West was settled in the 1800s, and in fact it was altered by Native Americans for centuries prior to settlement. A number of escalating problems and consequences of management choices are currently changing Rocky Mountain ecological communities at a dizzying pace. In Order to maintain some degree of natural ecosystem processes and preserve natural biodiversity in light of these challenges, Americans and Canadians are faced with the need for intensive, hands-on management of both ecosystems and selected plant and animal populations. In this chapter, we first discuss the primary issues regarding the biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains, including the Rocky Mountain portions of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, British Columbia, and Alberta. Next, we survey groups of organisms to examine their status and special problems. Finally, we touch on major challenges to biodiversity that loom in the near future. Given that entire books may be written on these issues, the discussion is brief and general, but with case histories for more detailed examples.

Book chapter↗

Water resources of southeastern Bucks County, Pennsylvania

This report has been prepared as a contribution to the development of southeastern Bucks County, Pa. It summarizes available information on the water resources of this 90-square mile area and evaluates current supplies. Future development of the area may change both the available quantity and the quality of the water supply. The effective development of the area demands a continuing knowledge of the water used and the potential quantity and quality of water available from both underground and surface sources. The area is strategically important to a great industrial section of the Bast. Its eastern boundary is a 26-mile segment of the Delaware River along the extreme southeastern border of Bucks County, Pa. (fig. 1). The present.population of the area is about 40,000, including 24,800 in Bristol Borough and Township and 6,770 in Morrisville. The area is traversed by both the Pennsylvania and the Reading Railroads and also by U.S. Highways 1 and 13. These are main transportation routes connecting the great market outlets of Philadelphia and New York. The Delaware River'is navigable from Morrisville to the sea. The area is only a short distance upstream from the Port of Philadelphia, which ranks second only to New York as the most important seaport in the United States. The area is mostly flat, open land 10 to 60 feet above mean sea level. It contains several large Industries, concentrated chiefly in the Bristol area (pi. 1). There are also scattered industries in the Morrisville, Langhorne, and Bensalem areas. However, Bucks County retains some of the characteristics of a farming region. Truck farming and gardening are still carried on to a considerable extent. Along Delaware River below Morrisville the mining of sand and gravel is an Important industry. The facts summarized in this report have been accumulated over a period of 25 years or more by Federal, State, and local agencies in connection with Investigations for other purposes. Most of the data used in this report have been obtained by the United States Geological Survey in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Forests and Waters, the Pennsylvania Department of Internal Affairs, the Pennsylvania Department of Commerce, and State Planning Board, the City of Philadelphia, the Corps of Engineers, and the Interstate Commission on the Delaware River Basin. This report was prepared in the Water Resources Division of the U.S.Geological Survey by Jack B. Qraham, District Geologist; John W. Mangan, District Engineer; and Walter F. White, Jr., District Chemist, under the general direction of C. G. Paulsen, Chief Hydraulic Engineer.

Pennsylvania↗

Management of plains cottonwood at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota

Establishment of cottonwood trees is driven by flood-induced channel migration, which provides the new surfaces necessary for successful germination and survival. Along the Little Missouri River the largest floods typically result from snowmelt in March or April. Seed release occurs in early summer, and seedlings usually germinate in moist, open locations on point bars at relatively low elevations above the channel. Subsequent channel migration allows seedlings to mature by protecting them from scour in floods and ice jams. Management actions that decrease channel movement will reduce cottonwood reproduction. Growth and survival of cottonwood trees are strongly decreased by extreme low flows. As a result, management activities that decrease low flows could strongly reduce growth or kill trees. Surface-flow diversions are less damaging to trees if carried out during the spring when flows are relatively high. Herbicide application by helicopter to control leafy spurge appears to have inadvertently damaged or killed about 25% of the cottonwood forest along the Little Missouri River in the South Unit. Area of adult trees sprayed has been reduced since 2007 to limit this damage. It is not known whether spraying of cottonwood seedlings on unforested point bars is reducing cottonwood reproduction in the South Unit. Warmer temperatures since 1976 have reduced flood peaks and the ice jamming that magnifies those peaks; as a result channel movement, cottonwood establishment and cottonwood growth have decreased. Increasing temperatures associated with global climate change could continue this trend.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

Nutrients, Dissolved Organic Carbon, Color, and Disinfection Byproducts in Base Flow and Stormflow in Streams of the Croton Watershed, Westchester and Putnam Counties, New York, 2000-02

The Croton Watershed is unique among New York City's water-supply watersheds because it has the highest percentages of suburban development (52 percent) and wetland area (6 percent). As the City moves toward filtration of this water supply, there is a need to document water-quality contributions from both human and natural sources within the watershed that can inform watershed-management decisions. Streamwater samples from 24 small (0.1 to 1.5 mi2) subbasins and three wastewater-treatment plants (2000-02) were used to document the seasonal concentrations, values, and formation potentials of selected nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), color, and disinfection byproducts (DBPs) during stormflow and base-flow conditions. The subbasins were categorized by three types of drainage efficiency and a range of land uses and housing densities. Analyte concentrations in subbasin streams differed in response to the subbasin charateristics. Nutrient concentrations were lowest in undeveloped, forested subbasins that were well drained and increased with all types of development, which included residential, urban commercial/industrial, golf-course, and horse-farm land uses. These concentrations were further modified by subbasin drainage efficiency. DOC, in contrast, was highly dependent on drainage efficiency. Color intensity and DBP formation potentials were, in turn, associated with DOC and thus showed a similar response to drainage efficiency. Every constituent exhibited seasonal changes in concentration. Nutrients. Total (unfiltered) phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and nitrate were associated primarily with residential development, urban, golf-course, and horse-farm land uses. Base-flow and stormflow concentrations of the TP, SRP, and nitrate generally increased with increasing housing density. TP and SRP concentrations were nearly an order of magnitude higher in stormflow than in base flow, whereas nitrate concentrations showed little difference between these flow conditions. Organic nitrogen concentrations (calculated as the difference between concentrations of total dissolved N and of all other N species) was the dominant form of nitrogen in undeveloped and moderately to poorly drained subbasins. High TP concentrations in stormflows (800-1,750 ug/L) were associated with well drained and moderately drained residential subbasins with high- and medium-density housing and with the moderately drained golf-course subbasin. Areas with medium to high housing densities favor TP transport because they provide extensive impervious surfaces, storm sewers, and local relief, which together can rapidly route stormwater to streams. SRP concentrations were highest in the same types of subbasins as TP, but also in sewered residential and horse-farm subbasins. The ratio of SRP to TP was typically a smaller in stormflow than in base flow. Base-flow TP and SRP concentrations were highest during the warm-weather months (May to October). The highest nitrate concentrations (3.0-4.5 mg/L) were associated with the urban subbasin and the three well drained, high-density residential subbasins. The two moderately drained lake subbasins and the two poorly drained (colored-water wetland) subbasins had consistently low nitrate concentrations despite low and medium housing densities. Nitrate concentrations were generally highest during the winter months and lowest during the autumn leaf-fall period. Organic N concentrations were highest during the leaf-fall period. Dissolved Organic Carbon. DOC concentration was consistently highest in the two poorly drained (colored-water-wetland) subbasins and lowest in the well drained subbasins. Base-flow DOC concentration increased with decreasing drainage efficiency, except in the well drained sewered subbasin with high-density housing, where slightly elevated DOC concentrations throughout the year may indicate leakage from a nearby sewer main. Seasonal changes in stormflow DOC concentrat

Open-File Report↗

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Fire and tree death: Understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality

Each year wildland fires kill and injure trees on millions of forested hectares globally, affecting plant and animal biodiversity, carbon storage, hydrologic processes, and ecosystem services. The underlying mechanisms of fire-caused tree mortality remain poorly understood, however, limiting the ability to accurately predict mortality and develop robust modeling applications, especially under novel future climates. Virtually all post-fire tree mortality prediction systems are based on the same underlying empirical model described in Ryan and Reinhardt (1988 Can. J. For. Res. 18 1291–7), which was developed from a limited number of species, stretching model assumptions beyond intended limits. We review the current understanding of the mechanisms of fire-induced tree mortality, provide recommended standardized terminology, describe model applications and limitations, and conclude with key knowledge gaps and future directions for research. We suggest a two-pronged approach to future research: (1) continued improvements and evaluations of empirical models to quantify uncertainty and incorporate new regions and species and (2) acceleration of basic, physiological research on the proximate and ultimate causes of fire-induced tree mortality to incorporate processes of tree death into models. Advances in both empirical and process fire-induced tree modeling will allow creation of hybrid models that could advance understanding of how fire injures and kills trees, while improving prediction accuracy of fire-driven feedbacks on ecosystems and landscapes, particularly under novel future conditions.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Predicting minimum habitat characteristics for the Indiana bat in the Champlain Valley

Predicting potential habitat across a landscape for rare species is extremely challenging. However, partitioned Mahalanobis D2 methods avoid pitfalls commonly encountered when surveying rare species by using data collected only at known species locations. Minimum habitat requirements are then determined by examining a principal components analysis to find consistent habitat characteristics across known locations. We used partitioned D 2 methods to examine minimum habitat requirements of Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, USA, across 7 spatial scales and map potential habitat for the species throughout the same area. We radiotracked 24 female Indiana bats to their roost trees and across their nighttime foraging areas to collect habitat characteristics at 7 spatial scales: 1) roost trees, 2) 0.1-ha circular plots surrounding the roost trees, 3) home ranges, and 4-7) 0.5-km, 1-km, 2-km, and 3-km buffers surrounding the roost tree. Roost trees (n = 50) typically were tall, dead, large-diameter trees with exfoliating bark, located at low elevations and close to water. Trees surrounding roosts typically were smaller in diameter and shorter in height, but they had greater soundness than the roost trees. We documented 14 home ranges in areas of diverse, patchy land cover types that were close to water with east-facing aspects. Across all landscape extents, area of forest within roost-tree buffers and the aspect across those buffers were the most consistent features. Predictive maps indicated that suitable habitat ranged from 4.7-8.1% of the area examined within the Champlain Valley. These habitat models further understanding of Indiana bat summer habitat by indicating minimum habitat characteristics at multiple scales and can be used to aid management decisions by highlighting potential habitat. Nonetheless, information on juvenile production and recruitment is lacking; therefore, assessments of Indiana bat habitat quality in the region are still incomplete.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Machine learning for predicting soil classes in three semi-arid landscapes

Mapping the spatial distribution of soil taxonomic classes is important for informing soil use and management decisions. Digital soil mapping (DSM) can quantitatively predict the spatial distribution of soil taxonomic classes. Key components of DSM are the method and the set of environmental covariates used to predict soil classes. Machine learning is a general term for a broad set of statistical modeling techniques. Many different machine learning models have been applied in the literature and there are different approaches for selecting covariates for DSM. However, there is little guidance as to which, if any, machine learning model and covariate set might be optimal for predicting soil classes across different landscapes. Our objective was to compare multiple machine learning models and covariate sets for predicting soil taxonomic classes at three geographically distinct areas in the semi-arid western United States of America (southern New Mexico, southwestern Utah, and northeastern Wyoming). All three areas were the focus of digital soil mapping studies. Sampling sites at each study area were selected using conditioned Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS). We compared models that had been used in other DSM studies, including clustering algorithms, discriminant analysis, multinomial logistic regression, neural networks, tree based methods, and support vector machine classifiers. Tested machine learning models were divided into three groups based on model complexity: simple, moderate, and complex. We also compared environmental covariates derived from digital elevation models and Landsat imagery that were divided into three different sets: 1) covariates selected a priori by soil scientists familiar with each area and used as input into cLHS, 2) the covariates in set 1 plus 113 additional covariates, and 3) covariates selected using recursive feature elimination. Overall, complex models were consistently more accurate than simple or moderately complex models. Random forests (RF) using covariates selected via recursive feature elimination was consistently the most accurate, or was among the most accurate, classifiers between study areas and between covariate sets within each study area. We recommend that for soil taxonomic class prediction, complex models and covariates selected by recursive feature elimination be used. Overall classification accuracy in each study area was largely dependent upon the number of soil taxonomic classes and the frequency distribution of pedon observations between taxonomic classes. Individual subgroup class accuracy was generally dependent upon the number of soil pedon observations in each taxonomic class. The number of soil classes is related to the inherent variability of a given area. The imbalance of soil pedon observations between classes is likely related to cLHS. Imbalanced frequency distributions of soil pedon observations between classes must be addressed to improve model accuracy. Solutions include increasing the number of soil pedon observations in classes with few observations or decreasing the number of classes. Spatial predictions using the most accurate models generally agree with expected soil–landscape relationships. Spatial prediction uncertainty was lowest in areas of relatively low relief for each study area.

New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Broad-scale patterns of Brook Trout responses to introduced Brown Trout in New York

Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis and Brown Trout Salmo trutta are valuable sport fish that coexist in many parts of the world due to stocking introductions. Causes for the decline of Brook Trout within their native range are not clear but include competition with Brown Trout, habitat alteration, and repetitive stocking practices. New York State contains a large portion of the Brook Trout's native range, where both species are maintained by stocking and other management actions. We used artificial neural network models, regression, principal components analysis, and simulation to evaluate the effects of Brown Trout, environmental conditions, and stocking on the distribution of Brook Trout in the center of their native range. We found evidence for the decline of Brook Trout in the presence of Brown Trout across many watersheds; 22% of sampled reaches where both species were expected to occur contained only Brown Trout. However, a model of the direct relationship between Brook Trout and Brown Trout abundance explained less than 1% of data variation. Ordination showed extensive overlap of Brook Trout and Brown Trout habitat conditions, with only small components of the hypervolume (multidimensional space) being distinctive. Subsequent analysis indicated higher abundances of Brook Trout in highly forested areas, while Brown Trout were more abundant in areas with relatively high proportions of agriculture. Simulation results indicated that direct interactions and habitat conditions were relatively minor factors compared with the effects of repeated stocking of Brown Trout into Brook Trout habitat. Intensive annual stocking of Brown Trout could eliminate resident Brook Trout in less than a decade. Ecological differences, harvest behavior, and other habitat changes can exacerbate Brook Trout losses. Custom stocking scenarios with Brown Trout introductions at relatively low proportions of resident Brook Trout populations may be able to sustain healthy populations of both species within their present range.

New York↗

Linking avian malaria parasitemia estimates from quantitative PCR and microscopy reveals new infection patterns in Hawai'i

Plasmodium parasites infect thousands of species and provide an exceptional system for studying host-pathogen dynamics, especially for multi-host pathogens. However, understanding these interactions requires an accurate assay of infection. Assessing Plasmodium infections using microscopy on blood smears often misses infections with low parasitemias (the fractions of cells infected), and biases in malaria prevalence estimates will differ among hosts that differ in mean parasitemias. We examined Plasmodium relictum infection and parasitemia using both microscopy of blood smears and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on 299 samples from multiple bird species in Hawai'i and fit models to predict parasitemias from qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. We used these models to quantify the extent to which microscopy underestimated infection prevalence and to more accurately estimate infection patterns for each species for a large historical study done by microscopy. We found that most qPCR-positive wild-caught birds in Hawaii had low parasitemias (Ct scores ≥35), which were rarely detected by microscopy. The fraction of infections missed by microscopy differed substantially among eight species due to differences in species’ parasitemia levels. Infection prevalence was likely 4–5-fold higher than previous microscopy estimates for three introduced species, including Zosterops japonicus , Hawaii’s most abundant forest bird, which had low average parasitemias. In contrast, prevalence was likely only 1.5–2.3-fold higher than previous estimates for Himatione sanguinea and Chlorodrepanis virens , two native species with high average parasitemias. Our results indicate that relative patterns of infection among species differ substantially from those observed in previous microscopy studies, and that differences depend on variation in parasitemias among species. Although microscopy of blood smears is useful for estimating the frequency of different Plasmodium stages and host attributes, more sensitive quantitative methods, including qPCR, are needed to accurately estimate and compare infection prevalence among host species.

Hawai'i↗