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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Integrating multiple data sources and multi-scale land-cover data to model the distribution of a declining amphibian

Determining the spatial scale at which landscape features influence population persistence is an important task for conservation planning. One challenge is that sampling biases confound factors that influence species occurrence and survey effort. Recent developments in Point Process Models (PPMs) enable researchers to disentangle the sampling process from ecological drivers of species' distributions. Land-cover change is a driver of decline for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii), which has been extirpated from much of its range in California. Assessing this species' status requires information on the current distribution of suitable habitat within its historical range, but little is known about the effect of the landscape surrounding breeding ponds on spadefoot occurrence. Critically, surveys for western spadefoots often occur along roads, potentially biasing data used to fit species distribution models. We created PPMs integrating historical presence/non-detection and presence-only data for western spadefoots and land-cover data at multiple spatial scales to model the distribution of this species while removing the influence of sampling bias. There was spatial sampling bias in presence-only data; records were more likely to be reported near roads and urban centers and PPMs that removed sampling bias outperformed models that ignored sampling bias. The occurrence of western spadefoots was positively related to the proportion of grassland within a 2000 m buffer. The remaining habitat for western spadefoots is largely found in the foothills surrounding California's Central Valley. Our study illustrates how PPMs can improve projections of habitat suitability and our understanding of the drivers of species' distributions.

California↗
USGS2003

Java Programs for Using Newmark's Method and Simplified Decoupled Analysis to Model Slope Performance During Earthquakes

Landslides typically cause a large proportion of earthquake damage, and the ability to predict slope performance during earthquakes is important for many types of seismic-hazard analysis and for the design of engineered slopes. Newmark's method for modeling a landslide as a rigid-plastic block sliding on an inclined plane provides a useful method for predicting approximate landslide displacements. Newmark's method estimates the displacement of a potential landslide block as it is subjected to earthquake shaking from a specific strong-motion record (earthquake acceleration-time history). A modification of Newmark's method, decoupled analysis, allows modeling landslides that are not assumed to be rigid blocks. This open-file report is available on CD-ROM and contains Java programs intended to facilitate performing both rigorous and simplified Newmark sliding-block analysis and a simplified model of decoupled analysis. For rigorous analysis, 2160 strong-motion records from 29 earthquakes are included along with a search interface for selecting records based on a wide variety of record properties. Utilities are available that allow users to add their own records to the program and use them for conducting Newmark analyses. Also included is a document containing detailed information about how to use Newmark's method to model dynamic slope performance. This program will run on any platform that supports the Java Runtime Environment (JRE) version 1.3, including Windows, Mac OSX, Linux, Solaris, etc. A minimum of 64 MB of available RAM is needed, and the fully installed program requires 400 MB of disk space.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Multiscale sagebrush rangeland habitat modeling in southwest Wyoming

Sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America have experienced dramatic elimination and degradation since European settlement. As a result, sagebrush-steppe dependent species have experienced drastic range contractions and population declines. Coordinated ecosystem-wide research, integrated with monitoring and management activities, would improve the ability to maintain existing sagebrush habitats. However, current data only identify resource availability locally, with rigorous spatial tools and models that accurately model and map sagebrush habitats over large areas still unavailable. Here we report on an effort to produce a rigorous large-area sagebrush-habitat classification and inventory with statistically validated products and estimates of precision in the State of Wyoming. This research employs a combination of significant new tools, including (1) modeling sagebrush rangeland as a series of independent continuous field components that can be combined and customized by any user at multiple spatial scales; (2) collecting ground-measured plot data on 2.4-meter imagery in the same season the satellite imagery is acquired; (3) effective modeling of ground-measured data on 2.4-meter imagery to maximize subsequent extrapolation; (4) acquiring multiple seasons (spring, summer, and fall) of an additional two spatial scales of imagery (30 meter and 56 meter) for optimal large-area modeling; (5) using regression tree classification technology that optimizes data mining of multiple image dates, ratios, and bands with ancillary data to extrapolate ground training data to coarser resolution sensors; and (6) employing rigorous accuracy assessment of model predictions to enable users to understand the inherent uncertainties. First-phase results modeled eight rangeland components (four primary targets and four secondary targets) as continuous field predictions. The primary targets included percent bare ground, percent herbaceousness, percent shrub, and percent litter. The four secondary targets included percent sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), percent big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), percent Wyoming sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis), and sagebrush height (centimeters). Results were validated by an independent accuracy assessment with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 6.38 percent for bare ground to 2.99 percent for sagebrush at the QuickBird scale and RMSE values ranging from 12.07 percent for bare ground to 6.34 percent for sagebrush at the full Landsat scale. Subsequent project phases are now in progress, with plans to deliver products that improve accuracies of existing components, model new components, complete models over larger areas, track changes over time (from 1988 to 2007), and ultimately model wildlife population trends against these changes. We believe these results offer significant improvement in sagebrush rangeland quantification at multiple scales and offer users products that have been rigorously validated.

Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Calibration of Nu-Instruments Noblesse multicollector mass spectrometers for argon isotopic measurements using a newly developed reference gas

The greatest challenge limiting 40 Ar/ 39 Ar multicollection measurements is the availability of appropriate standard gasses to intercalibrate detectors. In particular, use of zoom lens ion-optics to steer and focus ion beams into a fixed detector array (i.e., Nu Instruments Noblesse) makes intercalibration of multiple detectors challenging because different ion-optic tuning conditions are required for optimal peak shape and sensitivity at different mass stations. We have found that detector efficiency and mass discrimination are affected by changes in ion-optic tuning parameters. Reliance upon an atmospheric Ar standard to calibrate the Noblesse is problematic because there is no straightforward way to relate atmospheric 40 Ar and 36 Ar to measurements of 40 Ar and 39 Ar if they are measured on separate detectors. After exploring alternative calibration approaches, we have concluded that calibration of the Noblesse is best performed using exactly the same source, detector, and ion-optic tuning settings as those used in routine 40 Ar/ 39 Ar analysis. To accomplish this, we have developed synthetic reference gasses containing 40 Ar, 39 Ar and 38 Ar produced by mixing gasses derived from neutron-irradiated sanidine with an enriched 38 Ar spike. We present a new method for calibrating the Noblesse based on use of both atmospheric Ar and the synthetic reference gasses. By combining atmospheric Ar and synthetic reference gas in different ways, we can directly measure 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, 38 Ar/ 39 Ar, and 36 Ar/ 39 Ar correction factors over ratios that vary from 0.5 to 460. These correction factors are reproducible to better than ± 0.5‰ (2σ standard error) over intervals spanning ~ 24 h but can vary systematically by ~ 4% over 2 weeks of continuous use when electron multiplier settings are held constant. Monitoring this variation requires daily calibration of the instrument. Application of the calibration method to 40 Ar/ 39 Ar multicollection measurements of widely used sanidine reference materials ACs-2, FCs-2, and TCs-2 demonstrate that calculated 40 Ar*/ 39 Ar K can be accurately corrected to yield model 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages consistent with those reported by Earthtime 40 Ar/ 39 Ar laboratories. Replicate analyses of 8–12 single-crystal sanidine ages are reproduced to within 1–2‰ (2σ standard error) under optimal analytical conditions. This calibration technique is applicable over a wide range of isotopic ratios and signal sizes. Finally, the reference gas has the added advantage of facilitating straightforward characterization of electron multiplier dead time over a wide dynamic range.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2024

On the uncertain intensity estimate of the 1859 Carrington storm

A study is made of the intensity of the Carrington magnetic storm of September 1859 as inferred from visual measurements of horizontal-component geomagnetic disturbance made at the Colaba observatory in India. Using data from modern observatories, a lognormal statistical model of storm intensity is developed, to characterize the maximum-negative value of the storm-time disturbance index (maximum – Dst) versus geomagnetic disturbance recorded at low-latitude observatories during magnetic storms. With this model and a recently published presentation of the Colaba data, the most likely maximum – Dst of the Carrington storm and its credibility interval are estimated. A related model is used to examine individual Colaba disturbance values reported for the Carrington storm. Results indicate that only about one in a million storms with maximum – Dst like the Carrington storm would result in local disturbance greater than that reported from Colaba. This indicates that either the Colaba data were affected by magnetospheric-ionospheric current systems in addition to the ring current, or there might be something wrong with the Colaba data. If the most extreme Colaba disturbance value is included in the analysis, then, of all hypothetical storms generating the hourly average disturbance recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm, the median maximum – Dst = 964 nT, with a 68% credibility interval of [855,1087] nT. If the most extreme Colaba disturbance value is excluded from the analysis, then the median maximum – Dst = 866 nT, with a 68% credibility interval of [768,977] nT. The widths of these intervals indicate that estimates of the occurrence frequency of Carrington-class storms are very uncertain, as are related estimates of risk for modern technological systems.

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate↗
USGS2011

Factors affecting winter survival of female mallards in the lower Mississippi alluvial valley

The lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (hereafter LMAV) provides winter habitat for approximately 40% of the Mississippi Flyway's Mallard (Anas platyrhynhcos) population; information on winter survival rates of female Mallards in the LMAV is restricted to data collected prior to implementation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. To estimate recent survival and cause-specific mortality rates in the LMAV, 174 radio-marked female Mallards were tracked for a total of 11,912 exposure days. Survival varied by time periods defined by hunting seasons, and females with lower body condition (size adjusted body mass) at time of capture had reduced probability of survival. Female survival was less and the duration of our tracking period was greater than those in previous studies of similarly marked females in the LMAV; the product-limit survival estimate (??????SE) through the entire tracking period (136 days) was 0.54 ??0.10. Cause-specific mortality rates were 0.18 ??0.04 and 0.34 ??0.12 for hunting and other sources of mortality, respectively; the estimated mortality rate from other sources (including those from avian, mammalian, or unknown sources) was higher than mortality from non-hunting sources reported in previous studies of Mallards in the LMAV. Models that incorporate winter survival estimates as a factor in Mallard population growth rates should be adjusted for these reduced winter survival estimates.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2002

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

California↗
USGS2010

Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

Wetland fire remote sensing research--The Greater Everglades example

Fire is a major factor in the Everglades ecosystem. For thousands of years, lightning-strike fires from summer thunderstorms have helped create and maintain a dynamic landscape suited both to withstand fire and recover quickly in the wake of frequent fires. Today, managers in the Everglades National Park are implementing controlled burns to promote healthy, sustainable vegetation patterns and ecosystem functions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using remote sensing to improve fire-management databases in the Everglades, gain insights into post-fire land-cover dynamics, and develop spatially and temporally explicit fire-scar data for habitat and hydrologic modeling.

Florida↗
USGS2001

Geologic map and database of the Roseburg 30' x 60' quadrangle, Douglas and Coos Counties, Oregon

The Roseburg 30' x 60' Quadrangle covers the southeastern margin of the Oregon Coast Range and its tectonic boundary with Mesozoic terranes of the Klamath Mountains (see figures 1 and 2 in pamphlet, also shown on map sheet). The geologic framework of the Roseburg area was established by the pioneering work of Diller (1898), Wells and Peck, (1961) and Ewart Baldwin (1974) and his students (see figure 3 in pamphlet, also shown on map sheet). Baldwin and his students focussed on the history of the Eocene Tyee basin, where the sediments lap across the tectonic boundary with the Mesozoic terranes and record the accretion of the Coast Range basement to the continent. Others have examined the sedimentary fill of the Tyee basin in detail, recognizing the deep marine turbidite facies of the Tyee Formation (Snavely and others, 1964) and proposing several models for the Eocene evolution of the forearc basin (Heller and Ryberg, 1983; Chan and Dott, 1983; Heller and Dickinson, 1985; Molenaar, 1985; see Ryu and others, 1992 for a comprehensive summary). Along the eastern margin of the quadrangle, both the Tyee basin and the Klamath terranes are overlain by Eocene volcanic rocks of the Western Cascade arc (Walker and MacLeod, 1991). The thick Eocene sedimentary sequence of the Tyee basin has significant oil and gas potential (Armentrout and Suek, 1985; Gautier and others, 1993; Ryu and others, 1996). Although 13 deep test wells have been drilled in the Roseburg quadrangle (see figure 2 and table 1 in pamphlet, also shown on map sheet), exploration to date has been hampered by an incomplete understanding of the basin�s tectonic setting and evolution. In response, the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) initiated a five year assessment of the oil and gas potential of the Tyee basin. This map is a product of a cooperative effort by the U. S. Geological Survey, Oregon State University, and DOGAMI to systematically map the sedimentary facies and structure of the Tyee basin. New geologic mapping of twenty-eight 7.5' quadrangles is summarized on the map (see figure 3, also shown on map sheet), and the digital database contains geologic information suitable for both 1:100K and 1:24K scale analysis. DOGAMI has published a compilation and synthesis of previous mapping (Niem and Niem, 1990), a basin-wide sequence stratigraphic model and correlations (Ryu and others, 1992), and a report on the oil and gas potential (Ryu and others, 1996). Readers interested in the oil and gas potential of the Roseburg quadrangle should use the map in combination with Ryu and others (1996) to address specific stratigraphic units and structural plays. Stratigraphic terminology for the Tyee basin adopts the type sections, formation names, and framework of Ryu and others (1992, 1996), which were developed concurrently with the mapping and are recognized throughout the basin. For detailed discussion of nomenclature, type sections, lithology, thickness and distribution, age, contact relationships, and depositional environment of stratigraphic units, the reader is referred to Ryu and others (1992). In this report we focus on the spatial, temporal, and structural relationships between units revealed by geologic mapping. Map unit ages (see figure 4 in pamphlet, also shown on map sheeet) are adjusted slightly from Ryu and others (1992, 1996) to fit new coccolith age determinations (D. Bukry, cited in pamphlet), paleomagnetic polarity data (Simpson, 1977 and new data cited in pamphlet), and the time scale of Berggren and others (1995).

Oregon↗
USGS2007

Multiple-Objective Stepwise Calibration Using Luca

This report documents Luca (Let us calibrate), a multiple-objective, stepwise, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration and the associated graphical user interface (GUI). Luca is a wizard-style user-friendly GUI that provides an easy systematic way of building and executing a calibration procedure. The calibration procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate any model compiled with the U.S. Geological Survey's Modular Modeling System. This process assures that intermediate and final states of the model are simulated consistently with measured values.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

User’s guide and reference to Ash3d—A three-dimensional model for Eulerian atmospheric tephra transport and deposition

Ash3d is a three-dimensional Eulerian atmospheric model for tephra transport, dispersal, and deposition to study and forecast hazards of volcanic ash clouds and tephra fall. In this report, we explain how to set up simulations using a web interface, and how to view and interpret model output. We also summarize the architecture of the model and some of its properties.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1968

Statistical properties of dune profiles

Properties of sand waves formed by subcritical unidirectional water currents are investigated by statistical analyses of records of streambed profiles. Records of bed elevation y as a function of distance x along the channel, y = y(x), and time records at a fixed point of the channel, y = y(t), were collected in three laboratory flumes that were 8 inches, 2 ft and 8 ft wide and in a straight alluvial channel that was 55 ft wide. For all cases, the bed material was fine sand. The continuous analogue records were converted to discrete data points and were analyzed by digital computer. The analyses show that both types of records, y(x) and y(t), can be approximately represented as stationary Gaussian processes. When the data are standardized and the length or distance are expressed as ratios of the mean duration between zero-crossings of y, the statistical properties of all the flume data are similar, with no distinguishing characteristics that can be attributed to size of flume or to whether the bed forms were ripples or dunes. The field data, however, reflect the influence of large alternate bars that were not present in the flumes. The Gaussian assumption, together with the spectral properties of the records as expressed by a dimensionless parameter, 6, permit predicting the distributions of maximum and minimum values of y between successive zeros of y. These distributions represent the probability distributions of the depth of local scour and fill due to the formation and migration of sand waves, and the parameters that specify the distributions relate approximately to flow velocity and depth. Observed values of the number of zero and h-level crossings, the mean duration between zero crossings, and the mean duration of upward excursions of the process y(t) above the fixed level h compared reasonably well with theoretical values for the Gaussian model. The distribution of the duration of upward excursions is the conditional probability distribution of the rest period of a particle, given that it is deposited on the downstream face of a ripple or dune at the level h. Observed distributions of these durations can be approximated by a gamma distribution with parameters that relate to h, where h is measured in units of standard deviation from the mean bed level. These distributions and other probability distributions that enter into stochastic models of sediment transport can be determined either from the theoretical model or empirically from the observed data. The results of the study ,-show that even though the bed elevation deviates somewhat from the postulated normal distribution, reasonable estimates of many properties of the bed profiles can be derived from fairly simple statistical models.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1974

A program to compute aquifer-response coefficients

An alternating direction technique is used to solve finite difference equations approximating the flow of water in an aquifer. The solutions produce response coefficients relating pumping from wells to drawdowns within those wells. The product of the response coefficient with the pumping values produces a linear algebraic technological function that can be used for integrating hydrologic phenomena into planning and management models.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1996

Documentation of model input and output values for simulation of pumping effects in Paradise Valley, a basin tributary to the Humboldt River, Humboldt County, Nevada

Documentation is provided of model input and sample output used in a previous report for analysis of ground-water flow and simulated pumping scenarios in Paradise Valley, Humboldt County, Nevada.Documentation includes files containing input values and listings of sample output. The files, in American International Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) or binary format, are compressed and put on a 3-1/2-inch diskette. The decompressed files require approximately 8.4 megabytes of disk space on an International Business Machine (IBM)- compatible microcomputer using the MicroSoft Disk Operating System (MS-DOS) operating system version 5.0 or greater.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02. Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Minnesota↗
USGS2012

Development of a flood-warning system and flood-inundation mapping in Licking County, Ohio

Digital flood-inundation maps for selected reaches of South Fork Licking River, Raccoon Creek, North Fork Licking River, and the Licking River in Licking County, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration; Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the City of Newark and Village of Granville, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the following USGS streamgages: South Fork Licking River at Heath, Ohio (03145173); Raccoon Creek below Wilson Street at Newark, Ohio (03145534); North Fork Licking River at East Main Street at Newark, Ohio (03146402); and Licking River near Newark, Ohio (03146500). The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. As part of the flood-warning streamflow network, the USGS re-installed one streamgage on North Fork Licking River, and added three new streamgages, one each on North Fork Licking River, South Fork Licking River, and Raccoon Creek. Additionally, the USGS upgraded a lake-level gage on Buckeye Lake. Data from the streamgages and lake-level gage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating steady-state step-backwater models to selected, established streamgage rating curves. The step-backwater models then were used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for up to 10 flood stages at a streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50 to 0.2-percent chance annual-exceedance probabilities for each of the 4 streamgages that correspond to the flood-inundation maps. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas. Maps of Licking County showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods. The USGS also developed an unsteady-flow model for a reach of South Fork Licking River for use by the NWS to enhance their ability to provide advanced flood warning in the region north of Buckeye Lake, Ohio. The unsteady-flow model was calibrated based on data from four flooding events that occurred from June 2008 to December 2011. Model calibration was approximate due to the fact that there were unmeasured inflows to the river that were not able to be considered during the calibration. Information on unmeasured inflow derived from NWS hydrologic models and additional flood-event data could enable the NWS to further refine the unsteady-flow model.

Ohio↗
USGS2013

Two-dimensional simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreational Area, Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas

In the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, substantial flooding occurred at Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest of west-central Arkansas, killing 20 campers. The U.S. Forest Service needed information concerning the extent and depth of flood inundation, the water velocity, and flow paths throughout Albert Pike Recreation Area for the flood and for streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The two-dimensional flow model Fst2DH, part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Finite Element Surface-water Modeling System, and the graphical user interface Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) were used to perform a steady-state simulation of the flood in a 1.5-mile reach of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreation Area. Peak streamflows of the Little Missouri River and tributary Brier Creek served as inputs to the simulation, which was calibrated to the surveyed elevations of high-water marks left by the flood and then used to predict flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The simulated extent of the June 11, 2010, flood matched the observed extent of flooding at Albert Pike Recreation Area. The mean depth of inundation in the camp areas was 8.5 feet in Area D, 7.4 feet in Area C, 3.8 feet in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 12.5 feet in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. The mean water velocity was 7.2 feet per second in Area D, 7.6 feet per second in Area C, 7.2 feet per second in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 7.6 feet per second in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. A sensitivity analysis indicated that varying the streamflow of the Little Missouri River had the greatest effect on simulated water-surface elevation, while varying the streamflow of tributary Brier Creek had the least effect. Simulated water-surface elevations were lower than those modeled by the U.S. Forest Service using the standard-step method, but the comparison between the two was favorable with a mean absolute difference of 0.58 feet in Area C and 0.32 feet in Area D. Results of a HEC-RAS model of the Little Missouri River watershed upstream from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station near Langley showed no difference in mean depth in the areas in common between the models, and a difference in mean velocity of only 0.5 foot per second. Predictions of flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent indicated that the extent of inundation of the June 11, 2010, flood exceeded that of the 1 percent flood, and that for both the 1 and 2 percent floods, all of Areas C and D, and parts of Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area were inundated. Predicted water-surface elevations for the 1 and 2 percent floods were approximately 1 foot lower than those predicted by the U.S. Forest Service using a standard-step model.

Arkansas↗