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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

USGS1989

Performance and utility of satellite telemetry during field studies of free-ranging polar bears in Alaska

Satellite telemetry technology has been used during field studies of polar bears in Alaska since 1985. A total of 109 Platform Transmitter Terminals (PTT) have been deployed on free-ranging female polar bears that seasonally inhabit waters adjacent to the Alaskan coast. The PTTs transmitted locational and sensor data to TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellites during a duty cycle of 12 hours on/60 hours off in 1985, 1986, and 1987. Expected battery life was 13.8 months, and collars were normally removed and replaced with new or refurbished PTTs at 11-13 month intervals. Duty cycles were altered to 7-8 hours on/64-65 hours off in 1988 to prolong expected battery life to 19-21 months. Sensor data transmitted included PTT internal temperature, short term activity counts recorded at 60 second intervals, and long term activity counts for the preceding 24 or 72-hour period. Early failures of PTTs to fix location (less than 75% of expected battery life) were as high as 53% during 198501986. Subsequent improvements in battery design, including better shock insulation, improved electronic, and an improved battery system have reduced early failures to 27% in 1987-1988. The harsh environment and the degree of abuse observed in recovered collars indicate that an unavoidable failure rate of 8-10% is inherent within 60 days after deployment on polar bears. A total of 18,000 locations and 201,000 sensor messages were received from female polar bears between May 1985 and June 1988. Polar bears that were marked in Alaskan waters have been located as far south as 60°N 168°W, and as far east as 70°N 127°W in the Beaufort Sea. Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea are shared with Canada, while polar bears in the Chukchi and Bering seas are shared with the Soviet Union. The international ranges of the two hypothesized populations have been documented. Satellite telemetry has detailed the large movement patterns of polar bear over these vast areas that were previously not available using other techniques.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Environmental factors influencing entry of fishes into a Great Lakes tributary during spring and summer

Stream entry of many fishes is influenced by environmental factors including water temperature, stream discharge, and photoperiod (Leggett 1977; Jonsson 1991). Environmental factors influence stream entry differently depending on the species and life stage of fish, likely because of varying physiologies and life histories (Lucas and Baras 2008). Many spring-run migratory fishes occupy Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (e.g., lake sturgeon, Acipenser fulvescens; steelhead, Oncorhynchus mykiss; white sucker, Catostomus commersonii; coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch; and sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus), and the timing of when they enter a river system each year is likely influenced by different environmental variables. For example, water temperature and stream discharge seem to be two of the triggers to upstream movement for many migratory fishes in the Great Lakes region (Hamel et al. 1997; Workman et al. 2002; Binder et al. 2010). Although much is known about the environmental cues for upstream migration of many species in the Great Lakes, understanding fish migration at higher spatial and temporal resolutions is needed (Landsman et al. 2011), especially in and around fishways. Therefore, our goal was to determine what factors influence the timing of fish entry into a Lake Michigan tributary at a relatively high temporal resolution using a noninvasive and continuous monitoring technique. Enhanced understanding of the environmental cues that trigger fish movement in Great Lakes tributaries is important because it can improve recreation, native fish restoration, and invasive species control. For example, fisheries managers need to know when and at which life stage fish are moving into the rivers to establish closed seasons and catch limits. Additionally, knowing when native or invasive species move upstream can inform the operation of selective fishways and hydropower facilities that protect native or economically valuable fishes (e.g., lake sturgeon, white sucker, steelhead, coho salmon) while blocking invasive species (e.g., sea lamprey). Here, we evaluate the environmental triggers of stream entry for three size classes of migratory fishes in the Lower Boardman River. Located in northern Michigan, the Boardman River is an important system for improving knowledge of fish migration because of its high productivity and value to the local community. Many fishes would benefit from increased habitat connectivity in the Boardman River, which connects a productive and relatively pristine tributary with a large and productive bay. The Boardman River is valued by both recreational and tribal stakeholders and is the focus of a restoration project aimed at improving habitat connectivity by removing and modifying all existing dams. For these reasons, the Great Lakes Fishery Commission is leading a project to replace the Union Street Dam on the Boardman River with a facility that integrates various technologies to pass desirable fish up- and down-stream while blocking and removing undesirable fish (the FishPass project). Using Dual-frequency Identification Sonar (DIDSON) cameras, we characterized the sizes of fishes migrating into the Boardman River below the Union Street Dam as well as the timing of their movements. Our results provide fine-scale details on the timing of fish movements in the Boardman River and directly inform the FishPass project. We were specifically interested in the movement timing of sea lamprey, an undesirable invasive fish that must not be passed upstream at FishPass, and lake sturgeon, a highly desired native fish that should pass upstream.

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USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

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USGS2024

Understanding and forecasting potential recruitment of Lake Michigan fishes by modeling growth and survival of larval stages with coupled climate, biophysical, and bioenergetics models

Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability may explain historical variation in the survival of young alewife and yellow perch, two fish populations that support key fisheries either directly or indirectly, while also projecting their future survival in the mid-21st century under different scenarios informed by consultation with fishery managers. Our model results revealed how spring and summer water temperatures in Lake Michigan can affect the environment in which young alewife and yellow perch grow and survive. Specifically, in years when lake warming is rapid, young fish are more likely to be transported from their natal, productive, nearshore environments to cooler and less productive offshore environments, unless adults also spawn earlier in these warm years. Furthermore, model predictions of prey abundance for young fish in the mid-21st century indicate less favorable conditions for growth and survival compared to predictions based solely on warming temperatures. With completion of the final products in the coming year, including predicted growth and survival of young fish under different future scenarios, fishery managers will have more information to share with stakeholders regarding how expectations may need to be modified regarding alewife and yellow perch productivity.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

Appendix A: Modeling appendix for the Northwestern and Southwestern pond turtle (Actinemys marmorata , Actinemys pallida )

To predict future status of the northwestern pond turtle ( Actinemys marmorata ) and southwestern pond turtle ( Actinemys pallida ) species, we developed a stochastic stage-based matrix population model to simulate future population conditions. We constructed a demographic population viability analysis for each species based on a post-breeding, single sex, stage-based life history diagram elicited from taxa experts and derived from relevant literature. Demographic parameters were based on estimates from published literature and data provided to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Using the most recent observations of turtles, available habitat, local abundances, and current threat conditions, we calculated spatially explicit initial abundances to initialize our stochastic projection. In order to incorporate multiple types of uncertainty (ecological, parametric, temporal), we built three embedded simulation loops within the simulation model. Representing ecological uncertainty, species status was projected into the future using multiple plausible future scenarios based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 8.5) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2, 5) to reflect plausible alternative future trajectories of relevant environmental conditions. Parametric uncertainty was included for survival estimates of all life stages due the inconsistency of estimates across the species’ range. Temporal variability or environmental stochasticity was included in the form of randomized variation from the mean demographic parameter values in each year of the approximately 80-year simulation. The model output included probability of extinction and estimated abundance through 2100 for each unique Analysis Unit (AU) and for the full geographic range of the species except populations in the state of Washington. The AUs in Washington are conservation dependent and sustained by a head-starting and reintroduction program. Thus, the population dynamics do not match our model for the rest of the range and therefore the Washington AUs were included in this projection modeling effort. There is already pre-existing, detailed PVA for these specific populations (Pramuk et al. 2012, p.41-60), and the Status assessment report can use those results for inference about future status. We discuss the results of Pramuk et al. (2012, p.41-61) alongside our own. Probability of extinction was overall higher for the southwestern pond turtle as compared to the northwestern species and population growth rates were strongly negative for both species (approximately -3% annually for all AUs for all scenarios). This appendix is organized into three primary sections: 1) a description of the life history, the core population dynamics model, and demographic parameters, 2) a description of methods for establishing initial abundances of the populations for the future viability modeling, and 3) a description of the methods for modeling effects of various threats on future demographic rates and the results of future conditions scenarios.

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USGS2003

Sedimentation rates in the marshes of Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge

Impoundments located within river systems in the Northern Great Plains are vulnerable to sediment inputs because intensive agriculture in watersheds has increased soil erosion and sediments in rivers. At the request of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), we evaluated the vertical accretion of sediment in the Mud Lake impoundment of Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Brown County, South Dakota. The Mud Lake impoundment was created in 1936 by constructing a low-head dam across the James River. We collected sediment cores from the Mud Lake impoundment during August 2000 for determination of vertical accretion rates. Accretion rates were estimated using cesium-13 7 and lead-210 isotopic dating techniques to estimate sediment accretion over the past 100 years. Accretion rates were greatest near the dam (1.3 cm yr-1) with less accretion (0.2 cm yr-1) occurring in the upper reaches of Mud Lake. As expected, accretion was highest near the dam where water velocities and greater water depth facilitates sediment deposition. Higher rates of sedimentation (accretion> 2.0 cm year-1) occurred during the 1990s when river flows were especially high. Since 1959, sediment accretion has reduced maximum pool depth of Mud Lake near the dam by 55 cm. Assuming that sediment accretion rates remain the same in the future, we project Mud Lake will have a maximum pool depth of 77 and 51 cm by 2020 and 2040, respectively. Over this same time frame, water depths in the upper reaches of Mud Lake would be reduced to< 2 cm. Projected future loss of water depth will severely limit the ability of managers to manipulate pool levels in Mud Lake to cycle vegetation and create interspersion of cover and water to meet current wildlife habitat management objectives. As predicted for major dams constructed on rivers throughout the world, Mud Lake will have a finite life span. Our data suggests that the functional life span of Mud Lake since construction will be < 100 years. We anticipate that over the next 20 years, sediments entering Mud Lake will reduce water depths to the point that current wildlife management objectives cannot be achieved through customary water-level manipulations. Sedimentation impacts are not unique to the Sand Lake NWR. It is widely accepted that impoundments trap sediments and shallow impoundments, such as those managed by the FWS, are especially vulnerable. Given the ecological impacts associated with loss of water depths, we recommend that managers begin evaluating the long-term wildlife management goals for the refuge relative to associated costs and feasibility of options available to enhance and maximize the life span of existing impoundments, including upper watershed management.

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USGS1974

The literature of the California black rail

Few birds have remained so little known as the California black rail ( Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus ). Although first collected in 1859 or before and reported in 1874 (Ridgway 1874), its life history, distribution, and status have remained so obscure that even a sight record of the bird is deemed worthy of a report in some ornithological publications. Because degradation and loss of freshwater and saltwater marshlands in California may be detrimentally affecting the black rail, both the U.S. Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife (1973) and the California Department of Fish and Game (1972) have classified it as rare and worthy of further study. The 84 papers and notes both summarized in this report and included in its bibliography include essentially all that is currently known about the California black rail. Only 11 of these papers consider the life history of this rail in any detail. The rest are distribution notes and some of the more important papers on the closely related eastern black rail ( L. j. jamaicensis ). The latter are included for comparative purposes, or because they may lend clues to currently unknown facets of the life history of the western race.

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife↗

USGS2006

The viability of a nonenzymatic reductive citric acid cycle - Kinetics and thermochemistry

The likelihood of a functioning nonenzymatic reductive citric acid cycle, recently proposed as the precursor to biosynthesis on early Earth, is examined on the basis of the kinetics and thermochemistry of the acetate → pyruvate → oxaloacetate → malate sequence. Using data derived from studies of the Pd-catalyzed phosphinate reduction of carbonyl functions it is shown that the rate of conversion of pyruvate to malate with that system would have been much too slow to have played a role in the early chemistry of life, while naturally occurring reduction systems such as the fayalite–magnetite–quartz and pyrrhotite–pyrite–magnetite mineral assemblages would have provided even slower conversions. It is also shown that the production of pyruvate from acetate is too highly endoergic to be driven by a naturally occurring energy source such as pyrophosphate. It is thus highly doubtful that the cycle can operate at suitable rates without enzymes, and most unlikely that it could have participated in the chemistry leading to life.

Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere↗

USGS2018

Modelling effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish extinction risk and population dynamics

Hydrological alteration, which may be exacerbated by climate change, is known to facilitate aquatic species invasion. Altered hydrology, invasive species, and the additive effects of these stressors pose a threat to aquatic biodiversity. Understanding extinction risk in the context of these stressors is crucial for prioritizing conservation efforts. As case studies, three narrow‐ranged endemic crayfish species of conservation concern ( Faxonius marchandi , Faxonius roberti , and Cambarus hubbsi ) in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri, USA, were used to examine the effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish population dynamics. The objectives of this study were to model the population dynamics of these imperilled species, assess how these populations may be affected under increased invasion effects and intensified drought, determine potential refuge effects, and examine the sensitivity of quasi‐extinction to model parameters. ramas‐metapop was used to construct stage‐based demographic models. Terminal extinction risk, median time to quasi‐extinction, and metapopulation occupancy were used to assess population viability under different scenarios. Cambarus hubbsi appears to be highly susceptible to decline if survival rates are reduced by simulated drought, as they have low reproductive potential and mature slowly. Models indicated that potential refuges allow F. roberti and C. hubbsi to persist, even when invasion and drought effects were extreme. Conversely, barriers to dispersal for F. marchandi led to reduced quasi‐extinction times and the greatest extinction risk under most invasion scenarios. Quasi‐extinction was most sensitive to changes in juvenile survival for all species examined, which indicates that improved estimates of stage‐specific demographic parameters for crayfish will improve model predictions. An increased understanding of the mechanisms of displacement of native crayfish by invasive crayfish is needed for most crayfish species. Limiting the spread of invasive species, maintaining natural habitat and hydrological regimes, and gaining insight into life histories and demographic parameters will increase the ability to conserve endemic and imperilled crayfish.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2017

Species interactions and the effects of climate variability on a wetland amphibian metacommunity

Disentangling the role that multiple interacting factors have on species responses to shifting climate poses a significant challenge. However, our ability to do so is of utmost importance to predict the effects of climate change on species distributions. We examined how populations of three species of wetland-breeding amphibians, which varied in life history requirements, responded to a six-year period of extremely variable precipitation. This interval was punctuated by both extensive drought and heavy precipitation and flooding, providing a natural experiment to measure community responses to environmental perturbations. We estimated occurrence dynamics using a discrete hidden Markov modeling approach that incorporated information regarding habitat state and predator–prey interactions. This approach allowed us to measure how metapopulation dynamics of each amphibian species was affected by interactions among weather, wetland hydroperiod, and co-occurrence with fish predators. The pig frog, a generalist, proved most resistant to perturbations, with both colonization and persistence being unaffected by seasonal variation in precipitation or co-occurrence with fishes. The ornate chorus frog, an ephemeral wetland specialist, responded positively to periods of drought owing to increased persistence and colonization rates during periods of low-rainfall. Low probabilities of occurrence of the ornate chorus frog in long-duration wetlands were driven by interactions with predators due to low colonization rates when fishes were present. The mole salamander was most sensitive to shifts in water availability. In our study area, this species never occurred in short-duration wetlands and persistence probabilities decreased during periods of drought. At the same time, negative effects occurred with extreme precipitation because flooding facilitated colonization of fishes to isolated wetlands and mole salamanders did not colonize wetlands once fishes were present. We demonstrate that the effects of changes in water availability depend on interactions with predators and wetland type and are influenced by the life history of each of our species. The dynamic species occurrence modeling approach we used offers promise for other systems when the goal is to disentangle the complex interactions that determine species responses to environmental variability.

Florida↗

USGS2017

State-dependent behavior alters endocrine–energy relationship: Implications for conservation and management

Glucocorticoids (GC) and triiodothyronine (T3) are two endocrine markers commonly used to quantify resource limitation, yet the relationships between these markers and the energetic state of animals has been studied primarily in small-bodied species in captivity. Free-ranging animals, however, adjust energy intake in accordance with their energy reserves, a behavior known as state-dependent foraging. Further, links between life-history strategies and metabolic allometries cause energy intake and energy reserves to be more strongly coupled in small animals relative to large animals. Because GC and T3 may reflect energy intake or energy reserves, state-dependent foraging and body size may cause endocrine–energy relationships to vary among taxa and environments. To extend the utility of endocrine markers to large-bodied, free-ranging animals, we evaluated how state-dependent foraging, energy reserves, and energy intake influenced fecal GC and fecal T3 concentrations in free-ranging moose ( Alces alces ). Compared with individuals possessing abundant energy reserves, individuals with few energy reserves had higher energy intake and high fecal T3 concentrations, thereby supporting state-dependent foraging. Although fecal GC did not vary strongly with energy reserves, individuals with higher fecal GC tended to have fewer energy reserves and substantially greater energy intake than those with low fecal GC. Consequently, individuals with greater energy intake had both high fecal T3 and high fecal GC concentrations, a pattern inconsistent with previous documentation from captive animal studies. We posit that a positive relationship between GC and T3 may be expected in animals exhibiting state-dependent foraging if GC is associated with increased foraging and energy intake. Thus, we recommend that additional investigations of GC– and T3–energy relationships be conducted in free-ranging animals across a diversity of body size and life-history strategies before these endocrine markers are applied broadly to wildlife conservation and management.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata . We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2024

Linking resource selection to population performance spatially to identify species' habitat across broad scales: An example of greater sage-grouse in a distinct population segment

Management decisions often focus on the habitat selection of marked individuals without considering the contribution to demographic performance in selected habitats. Because habitat selection is not always adaptive, understanding the spatial relationship between habitat selection and demographic performance is critical to management decisions. Mapping both habitat selection and demographic performance for species of conservation concern can help guide population-scale conservation efforts. We demonstrate a quantitative approach to differentiate areas supporting selection and survival at large spatial extents. As a case study, we applied this approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems. We evaluated both habitat selection and survival across multiple reproductive life stages (nesting, brood-rearing) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population of sage-grouse on the southwestern edge of the species' range. Our approach allowed us to identify both mismatches between selection and survival and trade-offs between reproductive life stages. These findings suggest resource demands vary across time, with predation risk being a dominant driver of habitat selection during nesting and early brood-rearing periods when chicks are smaller and flightless, whereas access to forage resources becomes more important during late brood rearing when resources become increasingly limited. Moving beyond identifying and managing habitat solely based on species occupancy or use by incorporating demographic measures allows managers to tailor actions to their specific goals; for example, protections of areas that support high selection and high survival and restoration actions focused on increasing survival in areas of high selection and low survival.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2014

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Influence of dams on sauger population structure and hybridization with introduced walleye

Dams have negatively affected freshwater biodiversity throughout the world. These negative effects tend to be exacerbated for aquatic taxa with migratory life histories, and for taxa whose habitat is fundamentally altered by the formation of large reservoirs. Sauger ( Sander candadensis ; Percidae), large-bodied migratory fishes native to North America, have seen population declines over much of the species' range, and dams are often implicated for their role in blocking access to spawning habitat and otherwise negatively affecting river habitat. Furthermore, hybridization appears to be more frequent between sauger and walleye in the reservoirs formed by large dams. In this study, we examine the role of dams in altering sauger population connectivity and facilitating hybridization with introduced walleye in Wyoming's Wind River and Bighorn River systems. We collected genomic data from individuals sampled over a large spatial scale and replicated sampling throughout the spawning season, with the intent to capture potential variation in hybridization prevalence or genomic divergence between sauger with different life histories. The timing of sampling was not related to hybridization prevalence or population divergence, suggesting limited genetic differences between sauger spawning in different time and places. Overall, there was limited hybridization detected, however, hybridization was most prevalent in Boysen Reservoir (a large impounded section of the Wind River). Dams in the lower Wind River and upper Bighorn River were associated with population divergence between sauger upstream and downstream of the dams, and demographic models suggest that this divergence has occurred in concordance with the construction of the dam. Sauger upstream of the dams exhibited substantially lower estimates of genetic diversity, which implies that disrupted connectivity between Wind River and Bighorn River sauger populations may already be causing negative demographic effects. This research points towards the importance of considering the evolutionary consequences of dams on fish populations in addition to the threats they pose to population persistence.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Robust age estimation of southern sea otters from multiple morphometrics

Reliable age estimation is an essential tool to assess the status of wildlife populations and inform successful management. Aging methods, however, are often limited by too few data, skewed demographic representation, and by single or uncertain morphometric relationships. In this study, we synthesize age estimates in southern sea otters Enhydra lutris nereis from 761 individuals across 34 years of study, using multiple noninvasive techniques and capturing all life stages from 0 to 17 years of age. From wild, stranded, and captive individuals, we describe tooth eruptions, tooth wear, body length, nose scarring, and pelage coloration across ontogeny and fit sex‐based growth functions to the data. Dental eruption schedules provided reliable and identifiable metrics spanning 0.3–9 months. Tooth wear was the most reliable predictor of age of individuals aged 1–15 years, which when combined with total length, explained >93% of observed age. Beyond age estimation, dental attrition also indicated the maximum lifespan of adult teeth is 13‒17 years, corresponding with previous estimates of life expectancy. Von Bertalanffy growth function model simulations of length at age gave consistent estimates of asymptotic lengths (male L oo = 126.0‒126.8 cm, female L oo = 115.3‒115.7 cm), biologically realistic gestation periods ( t 0 = 115 days, SD = 10.2), and somatic growth (male k = 1.8, SD = 0.1; female k = 2.1, SD = 0.1). Though exploratory, we describe how field radiographic imaging of epiphyseal plate development or fusions may improve aging of immature sea otters. Together, our results highlight the value of integrating information from multiple and diverse datasets to help resolve conservation problems.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

Ecology and Evolution↗