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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

Status and trends of land change in selected U.S. ecoregions - 2000 to 2011

U.S. Geological Survey scientists developed a dataset of 2006 and 2011 land-use and land-cover ( LULC ) information for selected 100-km 2 sample blocks within 29 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA ) Level III ecoregions across the conterminous United States. The data can be used with the previously published Land Cover Trends Dataset: 1973 to 2000 to assess landuse/land-cover change across a 37-year study period. Results from analysis of these data include ecoregion-based statistical estimates of the amount of LULC change per time period, ranking of the most common types of conversions, rates of change, and percent composition. Overall estimated amount of change per ecoregion from 2001 to 2011 ranged from a low of 370 km 2 in the Northern Basin and Range Ecoregion to a high of 78,782 km 2 in the Southeastern Plains Ecoregion. The Southeastern Plains continues to encompass one of the most intense forest harvesting and regrowth regions in the country, with 16.6 percent of the ecoregion changing between 2001 and 2011. These LULC change statistics provide a new, valuable resource that complements other reference data and field-verified LULC data. Researchers can use this resource to independently validate other land change products or to conduct regional land change assessments.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Mapping land cover through time with the Rapid Land Cover Mapper—Documentation and user manual

The Rapid Land Cover Mapper is an Esri ArcGIS® Desktop add-in, which was created as an alternative to automated or semiautomated mapping methods. Based on a manual photo interpretation technique, the tool facilitates mapping over large areas and through time, and produces time-series raster maps and associated statistics that characterize the changing landscapes. The Rapid Land Cover Mapper add-in can be used with any imagery source to map various themes (for instance, land cover, soils, or forest) at any chosen mapping resolution. The user manual contains all essential information for the user to make full use of the Rapid Land Cover Mapper add-in. This manual includes a description of the add-in functions and capabilities, and step-by-step procedures for using the add-in. The Rapid Land Cover Mapper add-in was successfully used by the U.S. Geological Survey West Africa Land Use Dynamics team to accurately map land use and land cover in 17 West African countries through time (1975, 2000, and 2013).

Open-File Report↗

The driving forces of land change in the Northern Piedmont of the United States

Driving forces facilitate or inhibit land-use/land-cover change. Human driving forces include political, economic, cultural, and social attributes that often change across time and space. Remotely sensed imagery provides regional land-change data for the Northern Piedmont, an ecoregion of the United States that continued to urbanize after 1970 through conversion of agricultural and forest land covers to developed uses. Eight major driving forces facilitated most of the land conversion; other drivers inhibited or slowed change. A synergistic web of drivers may be more important in understanding land change than individual drivers by themselves.

Maryl;New York;Pennsylvania;Virginia↗

Operational assessment tool for forest carbon dynamics for the United States: A new spatially explicit approach linking the LUCAS and CBM-CFS3 models

Background Quantifying the carbon balance of forested ecosystems has been the subject of intense study involving the development of numerous methodological approaches. Forest inventories, processes-based biogeochemical models, and inversion methods have all been used to estimate the contribution of U.S. forests to the global terrestrial carbon sink. However, estimates have ranged widely, largely based on the approach used, and no single system is appropriate for operational carbon quantification and forecasting. We present estimates obtained using a new spatially explicit modeling framework utilizing a “gain–loss” approach, by linking the LUCAS model of land-use and land-cover change with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Results We estimated forest ecosystems in the conterminous United States stored 52.0 Pg C across all pools. Between 2001 and 2020, carbon storage increased by 2.4 Pg C at an annualized rate of 126 Tg C year −1 . Our results broadly agree with other studies using a variety of other methods to estimate the forest carbon sink. Climate variability and change was the primary driver of annual variability in the size of the net carbon sink, while land-use and land-cover change and disturbance were the primary drivers of the magnitude, reducing annual sink strength by 39%. Projections of carbon change under climate scenarios for the western U.S. find diverging estimates of carbon balance depending on the scenario. Under a moderate emissions scenario we estimated a 38% increase in the net sink of carbon, while under a high emissions scenario we estimated a reversal from a net sink to net source. Conclusions The new approach provides a fully coupled modeling framework capable of producing spatially explicit estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes under a range of historical and/or future socioeconomic, climate, and land management futures.

Continental United States↗

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km 2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

The effects of urban land cover dynamics on urban heat Island intensity and temporal trends

Assessments of surface urban heat island (UHI) have focused on using remote sensing and land cover data to quantify UHI intensity and spatial distribution within a certain time period by including land cover information. In this study, we implemented a prototype approach to characterize the spatiotemporal variations of UHI using time series of Landsat land surface temperature products and annual land change information. We analyzed UHI distribution and change in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in the north-central United States and found that the mean UHI intensity in the region was as large as 2.2°C during the period 1986–2017 with an increasing trend of 0.02°C per year within the area with a 5-km non-urban extent. The UHI intensity associated with high intensity urban land cover usually is stronger than with low intensity urban land cover. We evaluated the impact of different non-urban reference extents on UHI variation using different non-urban buffers. The result also suggests that the overall temporal trends of UHI intensity are almost the same when using a 5-km or 10-km non-urban buffer surrounding the urban core. The prototype approach provides a framework to consistently quantify UHI and monitor its change to a large geographic extent.

South Dakota↗

A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover(LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for spatial heterogeneity from topography, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables. The model uses a global 30 m land cover map (2010) as the base input, a variety of biogeographic and socioeconomic variables, and an empirical analysis to downscale coarse-resolution land use information (specifically urban, crop and pasture). The output of this model offers the most current and finest-scale future LULC dynamics from 2010 to 2100 (with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) at a 1 km resolution within a globally consistent framework. The data are freely available for download, and will enable researchers to study the impacts of LULC change at the local scale.

Science Bulletin↗

LANDFIRE 2010—Updates to the national dataset to support improved fire and natural resource management

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) 2010 data release provides updated and enhanced vegetation, fuel, and fire regime layers consistently across the United States. The data represent landscape conditions from approximately 2010 and are the latest release in a series of planned updates to maintain currency of LANDFIRE data products. Enhancements to the data products included refinement of urban areas by incorporating the National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover product, refinement of agricultural lands by integrating the National Agriculture Statistics Service 2011 cropland data layer, and improved wetlands delineations using the National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory data. Disturbance layers were generated for years 2008 through 2010 using remotely sensed imagery, polygons representing disturbance events submitted by local organizations, and fire mapping program data such as the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity perimeters produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Forest Service. Existing vegetation data were updated to account for transitions in disturbed areas and to account for vegetation growth and succession in undisturbed areas. Surface and canopy fuel data were computed from the updated vegetation type, cover, and height and occasionally from potential vegetation. Historical fire frequency and succession classes were also updated. Revised topographic layers were created based on updated elevation data from the National Elevation Dataset. The LANDFIRE program also released a new Web site offering updated content, enhanced usability, and more efficient navigation.

Open-File Report↗

Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative unit watershed erosion potential prioritization for check-dam installation

Changes in land-use practices and the extirpation (local extinction) of beaver populations in the early 20th century during European settlement are believed to have resulted in many changes in how streams in the Western United States function. Some of the negative changes that have resulted include stream channelization, soil erosion, changing vegetation, water turbidity, and a loss of overland flow. Efforts to restore streams and reduce soil erosion by water have included reintroductions of beaver, incorporating Native American traditional knowledge of dry-land farming techniques, and the installation of rigid check-dams. Many of these efforts have been successful in improving both intermittent and perennial stream function. Therefore, stakeholders in the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SRLCC) have identified a need to prioritize streams within their region of interest for the installation of check-dams to continue restoration and conservation efforts and to improve sediment catchment. Using Natural Resource Conservation Service soil databases, topographic features derived from digital elevation models, stream networks, and regional climatic patterns, I developed a ranking system for watershed potential erosion rates and suitability for check-dam placement across the SRLCC. This ranking system serves as a first step for land managers to prioritize areas for check-dam installation based on relatively static factors (soil properties, topography, and hydrology) that can contribute to rates of soil erosion by water and the stability of check-dams. Many other relatively dynamic factors over time can contribute to rates of soil erosion by water, such as recent wildfire events, changes in weather patterns and extreme climate events, and changing land-use such as grazing, logging, mining, development, and cultivation. These factors that influence vegetative and biological soil crusts cover are also important elements to the potential erosion of soil by water. Because of this, SRLCC stakeholders might consider further evaluation of the watersheds identified here as high ranking. Final watershed prioritization among the high-ranking watersheds identified here should include current knowledge of land-use and land-cover estimates to identify areas at risk for soil erosion or degree of existing erosion problems.

Open-File Report↗

Assessing land cover performance in Senegal, West Africa using 1-km integrated NDVI and local variance analysis

The researchers calculated seasonal integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for each of 7 years using a time-series of 1-km data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (1992-93, 1995) and SPOT Vegetation (1998-2001) sensors. We used a local variance technique to identify each pixel as normal or either positively or negatively anomalous when compared to its surroundings. We then summarized the number of years that a given pixel was identified as an anomaly. The resulting anomaly maps were analysed using Landsat TM imagery and extensive ground knowledge to assess the results. This technique identified anomalies that can be linked to numerous anthropogenic impacts including agricultural and urban expansion, maintenance of protected areas and increased fallow. Local variance analysis is a reliable method for assessing vegetation degradation resulting from human pressures or increased land productivity from natural resource management practices. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy produced a 1 km resolution global land cover characteristics database for use in a wide range of continental-to global-scale environmental studies. This database provides a unique view of the broad patterns of the biogeographical and ecoclimatic diversity of the global land surface, and presents a detailed interpretation of the extent of human development. The project was carried out as an International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Data and Information Systems (IGBP-DIS) initiative. The IGBP DISCover global land cover product is an integral component of the global land cover database. DISCover includes 17 general land cover classes defined to meet the needs of IGBP core science projects. A formal accuracy assessment of the DISCover data layer will be completed in 1998. The 1 km global land cover database was developed through a continent-by-continent unsupervised classification of 1 km monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composites covering 1992-1993. Extensive post-classification stratification was necessary to resolve spectral/temporal confusion between disparate land cover types. The complete global database consists of 961 seasonal land cover regions that capture patterns of land cover, seasonality and relative primary productivity. The seasonal land cover regions were aggregated to produce seven separate land cover data sets used for global environmental modelling and assessment. The data sets include IGBP DISCover, U.S. Geological Survey Anderson System, Simple Biosphere Model, Simple Biosphere Model 2, Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme, Olson Ecosystems and Running Global Remote Sensing Land Cover. The database also includes all digital sources that were used in the classification. The complete database can be sourced from the website: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/landdaac/glcc/glcc.html.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

The potential of mid- and near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy for determining major- and trace-element concentrations in soils from a geochemical survey of North America

In 2004, soils were collected at 220 sites along two transects across the USA and Canada as a pilot study for a planned soil geochemical survey of North America (North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project). The objective of the current study was to examine the potential of diffuse reflectance (DR) Fourier Transform (FT) mid-infrared (mid-IR) and near-infrared (NIRS) spectroscopy to reduce the need for conventional analysis for the determination of major and trace elements in such continental-scale surveys. Soil samples (n = 720) were collected from two transects (east-west across the USA, and north-south from Manitoba, Canada to El Paso, Texas (USA), n = 453 and 267, respectively). The samples came from 19 USA states and the province of Manitoba in Canada. They represented 31 types of land use (e.g., national forest, rangeland, etc.), and 123 different land covers (e.g., soybeans, oak forest, etc.). The samples represented a combination of depth-based sampling (0-5 cm) and horizon-based sampling (O, A and C horizons) with 123 different depths identified. The set was very diverse with few samples similar in land use, land cover, etc. All samples were analyzed by conventional means for the near-total concentration of 49 analytes (C total , C carbonate and C organic , and 46 major and trace elements). Spectra were obtained using dried, ground samples using a Digilab FTS-7000 FT spectrometer in the mid- (4000-400 cm -1 ) and near-infrared (10,000-4000 cm -1 ) at 4 cm -1 resolution (64 co-added scans per spectrum) using a Pike AutoDIFF DR autosampler. Partial least squares calibrations were develop using: (1) all samples as a calibration set; (2) samples evenly divided into calibration and validation sets based on spectral diversity; and (3) samples divided to have matching analyte concentrations in calibration and validation sets. In general, results supported the conclusion that neither mid-IR nor NIRS would be particularly useful in reducing the need for conventional analysis of soils from this continental-scale geochemical survey. The extreme sample diversity, likely caused by the widely varied parent material, land use at the site of collection (e.g., grazing, recreation, agriculture, etc.), and climate resulted in poor calibrations even for C total , C organic and C carbonate . The results indicated potential for mid-IR and NIRS to differentiate soils containing high concentrations (>100 mg/kg) of some metals (e.g., Co, Cr, Ni) from low-level samples (<50 mg/kg). However, because of the small number of high-level samples, it is possible that differentiation was based on factors other than metal concentration. Results for Mg and Sr were good, but results for other metals examined were fair to poor, at best. In essence, it appears that the great variation in chemical and physical properties seen in soils from this continental-scale survey resulted in each sample being virtually unique. Thus, suitable spectroscopic calibrations were generally not possible.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Enhanced algorithm performance for land cover classification from remotely sensed data using bagging and boosting

Two ensemble methods, bagging and boosting, were investigated for improving algorithm performance. Our results confirmed the theoretical explanation [1] that bagging improves unstable, but not stable, learning algorithms. While boosting enhanced accuracy of a weak learner, its behavior is subject to the characteristics of each learning algorithm.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗

Land-Cover Trends of the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, 1973-2000

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed and is implementing the Land Cover Trends project to estimate and describe the temporal and spatial distribution and variability of contemporary land-use and land-cover change in the United States. As part of the Land Cover Trends project, the purpose of this study was to assess land-use/land-cover change in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion for the period 1973 to 2000 using a probability sampling technique and satellite imagery. We randomly selected 36 100-km2 sample blocks to derive thematic images of land-use/land-cover for five dates of Landsat imagery (1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, 2000). We visually interpreted as many as 11 land-use/land-cover classes using a 60-meter minimum mapping unit from the five dates of imagery yielding four periods for analysis. Change-detection results from post-classification comparison of our mapped data showed that landscape disturbance from fire was the dominant change from 1973-2000. The second most-common change was forest disturbance resulting from harvest of timber resources by way of clear-cutting. The rates of forest regeneration from temporary fire and harvest disturbances coincided with the rates of disturbance from the previous period. Relatively minor landscape changes were caused by new development and reservoir drawdown. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that land ownership and the proportion of forest and developed cover types were significant determinants of the likelihood of direct human-induced change occurring in sampling units. Driving forces of change include land ownership, land management such as fire suppression policy, and demand for natural resources.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May&ndash;October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 &deg;C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.

Journal of Hydrology↗

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi 2 ), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi 2 ) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi 2 ) in the United States. We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations. Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections. The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable. The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community. This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Nevada, Sina↗

Sensitivity of streamflow simulation in the Delaware River Basin to forecasted land‐cover change for 2030 and 2060

In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km 2 ) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.

Delaware River Basin↗

Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States

As part of the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project, land-use/land-cover change estimates between 1973 and 2000 are presented for the basin and range ecoregions, including Northern, Central, Mojave, and Sonoran. Landsat data were employed to estimate and characterize land-cover change from 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using a post-classification comparison. Overall, spatial change was 2.5% (17,830 km 2 ). Change increased steadily between 1973 and 1986 but decreased slightly between 1992 and 2000. The grassland/shrubland class, frequently used for livestock grazing, constituted the majority of the study area and had a net decrease from an estimated 83.8% (587,024 km 2 ) in 1973 to 82.6% (578,242 km 2 ) in 2000. The most common land-use/land-cover conversions across the basin and range ecoregions were indicative of the changes associated with natural, nonmechanical disturbances (i.e., fire), and grassland/shrubland loss to development, agriculture, and mining. This comprehensive look at contemporary land-use/land-cover change provides critical insight into how the deserts of the United States have changed and can be used to inform adaptive management practices of public lands.

Regional Environmental Change↗