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Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres”

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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Modeled coastal-ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence

Extreme precipitation during Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018, led to breaches of hog waste lagoons, coal ash pits, and wastewater facilities. In the weeks following the storm, freshwater discharge carried pollutants, sediment, organic matter, and debris to the coastal ocean, contributing to beach closures, algae blooms, hypoxia, and other ecosystem impacts. Here, the ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants following Hurricane Florence are investigated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a river point source with fixed water properties from a hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) of the Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina's largest watershed. Patterns of contaminant transport in the coastal ocean are quantified with a finite duration tracer release based on observed flooding of agricultural and industrial facilities. A suite of synthetic events also was simulated to investigate the sensitivity of the river plume transport pathways to river discharge and wind direction. The simulated Hurricane Florence discharge event led to westward (downcoast) transport of contaminants in a coastal current, along with intermittent storage and release of material in an offshore (bulge) or eastward (upcoast) region near the river mouth, modulated by alternating upwelling and downwelling winds. The river plume patterns led to a delayed onset and long duration of contaminants affecting beaches 100 km to the west, days to weeks after the storm. Maps of the onset and duration of hypothetical water quality hazards for a range of weather conditions may provide guidance to managers on the timing of swimming/shellfishing advisories and water quality sampling.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗
USGS2023

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources

Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. Such an approach has been extensively studied in the past and it is widely recognized as an important disaster-risk mitigation tool. PTHA can not only provide less uncertain and spatially coherent hazard estimates in comparison with classical empirical data analysis which is restricted at the tide gauge stations, but also local inundation information. In this paper, we explore a purely statistical alternative to traditional PTHA for evaluation of tsunami amplitude hazard. Here, we use tide gauge measurements of tsunami amplitude along the western United States, specifically California and Oregon, and develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to assess tsunami hazard from far-field earthquake sources at various recurrence intervals. The configuration of our model incorporates latent Gaussian fields that utilize information on the distance between tide gauges as well as on the continental shelf width, that is, a covariate linked to potential dissipative effects on wave energy as the tsunami travels over shallow water. Through our BHM, we produce spatially continuous probabilistic maps of far-field tsunami hazard which can aid comprehensive tsunami disaster risk reduction and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Viscous relaxation of Oort and Edgeworth craters on Pluto: Possible indicators of an epoch of early high heat flow

Impact craters, with their well-defined initial shapes, have proven useful as heat flow probes of a number of icy bodies, provided characteristics of viscous relaxation can be identified. For Pluto's numerous craters, such identifications are hampered/complicated by infilling and erosion by mobile volatile ices, but not in every case. Large craters offer relatively deep probes of rheological structure, and on Pluto two large old craters in a major dark (volatile-ice free) region are probably the best examples for possible viscous relaxation: Oort (115-km diameter) and Edgeworth (140-km diameter). They are similar in size, location, and apparent age (morphological preservation), but may or may not be coeval. Edgeworth is particularly shallow and its floor appears bowed up above the original ground plane, a classic hallmark of viscous relaxation in which viscosity decreases sharply with depth. Oort is less relaxed, but may be somewhat younger and less affected by an early epoch of high heat flow. Finite element calculations show that this heat flow would have to have been substantial to explain Edgeworth's upbowed floor by viscous relaxation, several times steady-state radiogenic values for present-day surface temperatures. We expect Pluto's brittle ice lithosphere to be fractured and porous, however, markedly reducing thermal conductivity and increasing temperatures at depth and relaxation for a given heat flow. We find that most relaxation occurs well within 100 Myr after impact for Edgeworth and Oort, and focus attention on a temporal (and/or regional) epoch of elevated heat flow, possibly tied to the serpentinization of Pluto's rocky core.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2023

Relationship between explosive and effusive volcanism in the Montes Apenninus region of the Moon

Lunar Pyroclastic Deposits (LPDs) are sites of explosive volcanism and often occur in areas of effusive volcanism on the Moon. On Earth, it has been observed that most volcanism has both effusive and explosive phases, whereas on the Moon, these two types of volcanism have typically been considered separately. We hypothesize that the relationship between explosive and effusive volcanism on the Moon is similar to what is observed on the Earth, where individual eruptions can experience multiple phases rather than one type of volcanism always preceding another or occurring separately. We present observations from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper detailing compositional relationships between volcanic features in the lunar Montes Apenninus region. We evaluated whether co-located LPDs and effusive features (e.g., rilles, mare) could have erupted from the same volcanic vent or even at the same time based on their compositional similarities and stratigraphic relationships. We found that the LPDs have varied stratigraphic relationships with co-located effusive features. We identified LPDs near sinuous rilles that may be related to the formation of the rille, where explosive and effusive volcanism occurred at the same vent (e.g., Mozart Rille), and LPDs that may be unrelated to the rille (e.g., Rimae Bode and Rima Bode LPD). Our results suggest that lunar volcanism can mirror terrestrial volcanism, with explosive and effusive eruptions demonstrating more complex dynamics and relationships than previously thought. This variability suggests that the relationship between LPDs and nearby volcanic features cannot be generalized for studies on their resource potential, eruption styles, or deposit volume.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2024

Evolution of a lake margin recorded in the Sutton Island member of the Murray formation, Gale crater, Mars

This study uses data from the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover to document the facies of the Sutton Island member of the Murray formation, interpret paleoenvironments, and establish key stratigraphic transitions at Gale crater. Two facies associations were identified: Facies Association 1 (FA1) and Facies Association 2 (FA2). Individual facies in FA1 include planar-laminated mudstone with minor intervals of planar sandstone, ripple cross-laminated sandstone, cross-stratified sandstone, and alternating laminated sandstone and mudstone. Meter-thick packages of planar-laminated mudstone in FA1 are interpreted to represent deposition in low-energy ponded environments along the lake margin. Straight- and curve-crested ripple cross-laminated facies are interpreted to represent current-influenced deposition. Cross-stratified sandstone facies consist of dm-thick sets that represent deposition in distal channels. Intercalated mm-scale mudstone and sandstone laminae represent waning flow conditions and possible channel abandonment. Facies in FA1 collectively represent deposition in a distal delta plain. FA2 is comprised of planar-laminated mudstone with minor sandstone and is interpreted to represent deposition in a lacustrine-basin setting by suspension settling linked to density flows. FA1 transitions upward into FA2, defining a rapid transgression substantial enough to facilitate the deposition of distal lake facies above delta plain facies. The abrupt transition from FA2 back to FA1 deltaic deposits is suggestive of forced regression. Facies in FA1 and FA2 are consistent with the prevalence of aqueous environments recorded in other Murray formation members and extend our understanding of the dynamic sedimentary processes that characterized ancient lacustrine systems at Gale crater.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2024

Measuring erosional and depositional patterns across Comet 67P's imhotep region

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko displays a pronounced hemispherical dichotomy in surface morphology, where the southern hemisphere exhibits more erosional features than the northern hemisphere due to receiving much greater solar radiation. Consequently, it is generally assumed that particles are ejected from the southern hemisphere through sublimation and a significant fraction eventually descends as airfall, covering the northern terrains. To investigate this south-to-north material transfer during the comet's perihelion passage, we used photoclinometry to measure material redistribution within its most extensive smooth terrain deposit around the Imhotep region. However, our findings do not align with this expected trend. Instead, we show that local-scale processes substantially impact the erosion and accumulation of material, with one area experiencing net erosion while another nearby region, just a few dozen meters away, sees sediment buildup. Our analysis underscores the complex interplay of processes shaping Comet 67P's surface and likely comets more generally.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2023

Kinematic evolution of a large paraglacial landslide in the Barry Arm fjord of Alaska

Our warming climate is adversely affecting cryospheric landscapes via glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and associated slope destabilization. In Prince William Sound, Alaska, the rapid retreat of Barry Glacier has destabilized the slopes flanking the glacier, resulting in numerous landslides. The largest of these landslides (∼500 Mm 3 in volume) is more than 2 km wide and has the potential to generate a tsunami that could affect nearby recreationists, marine traffic, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and the community of Whittier, located 60 km from the landslide. Here, we combine landslide structural and kinematic element mapping with data acquired from bi-yearly airborne lidar, multi-week satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR), sub-hourly ground-based SAR, and seismic monitoring from 2020 to 2022 to characterize this landslide and examine its evolution. While some methods serve as a snapshot in time that is a culmination of events, others emphasize the ever-evolving nature of the landslide and associated hazards. Four major kinematic elements define the overall structure of the landslide, which vary in deformation type and rate, from creep (5 mm per day over several months) to episodic movement (2 m in 30 days) and landslide-wide to localized events. In some areas of the landslide, short-term deformation deviates from structures formed by cumulative movement, implying structural and kinematic evolution associated with glacier retreat. These insights are important for assessing landslide hazards and hazard evolution for large, slow-moving bedrock landslides in actively deglaciating environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Pockmarks offshore Big Sur, California provide evidence for recurrent, regional, and unconfined sediment gravity flows

Recent surface ship multibeam surveys of the Sur Pockmark Field, offshore Central California, reveal >5,000 pockmarks in an area that is slated to host a wind farm, between 500- and 1,500-m water depth. Extensive fieldwork was conducted to characterize the seafloor environment and its recent geologic history, including visual observations with remotely operated vehicles, sediment core sampling, and high-resolution, near-bottom Chirp and multibeam surveys collected with autonomous underwater vehicles to capture the morphology and stratigraphy of the pockmarks. No evidence of high methane concentrations in sediments, chemosynthetic biological communities, or methane-derived diagenetic byproducts was found. Chirp data and sediment cores showed alternating layers of slowly accumulating hemipelagic drapes interrupted by more reflective turbidite horizons that extend throughout the pockmark field and beyond. Chirp data showed multiple episodes of lateral migration over time in some of the pockmarks in association with erosion and infilling events. Laterally continuous turbidite horizons that overlay erosional surfaces indicated that pockmark migration occurred synchronously in multiple pockmarks separated by tens of kilometers. These shifts are presumed to be the result of asymmetrical erosion of the pockmark flanks caused by passing sediment gravity flows. While some pockmarks occur in chains, most are not clustered or randomly spaced but are regularly dispersed within the pockmark field. We hypothesize that intermittent, unconfined sediment gravity flows occurring over at least the last 280,000 years are the source of the regionally continuous turbidite deposits and the mechanism that maintained the regularly dispersed pockmarks.

California↗
USGS2024

Predicting characteristic length scales of barrier island segmentation in microtidal environments

Segmented barrier islands can be found in regions with small tidal ranges. In contrast to tidally dominated barriers, where inlet dynamics are thought to control island length scales, the controls on barrier island length scales in wave-dominated environments have not been quantified. These microtidal barriers typically have a curved shoreline, suggesting the influence of wave-driven alongshore sediment transport. Microtidal barriers are also typically hydrodynamically isolated from one another, as weak tidal flows limit interactions between adjoining barriers. To better understand the controls on and scales of barrier segmentation in the relative absence of tides, here we develop a theoretical framework to estimate the alongshore length scales at which a barrier will either breach or heal following a disturbance in the barrier morphology. The non-dimensional framework compares the timescales of overwash (advective) and alongshore sediment transport (diffusive) processes along barrier island chains. We then apply this framework to modern barrier islands in the microtidal Gulf of Mexico using wave hindcast data and the lengths, widths, heights, and lagoon depths measured from remotely sensed geospatial data and topobathymetric data. We find that most of these barriers are currently longer than their critical length scale, often as a result of coastal restoration efforts. Our critical length scale analysis suggests that most of the Gulf of Mexico barriers are vulnerable to segmentation despite coastal restoration efforts intended to protect fisheries and the mainland coasts.

Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2024

Vortex trapping of suspended sand grains over ripples

Coastal hydrodynamics and morphodynamics integrate the effects of small-scale fluid-sediment interactions; yet, these small-scale processes are not well understood. To investigate sediment trapping by turbulent coherent structures or vortices, the transport of coarse sand over ripples was analyzed in a small-oscillatory flow tunnel with phase-separated Particle Image and Tracking Velocimetry. Results from one of the first direct measurements of vortex-trapped sand grains under oscillatory flows are presented. The vortices mobilized sand grains along the ripple slopes just prior to flow reversal and transported the suspended sediment grains. During several flow cycles, some sand grains were temporarily trapped in the vortex, prescribing semi-circular trajectories off-center from the vortex core in quadrants of the vortex that were closest to the ripple slope, as illustrated by Nielsen (1992, https://doi.org/10.1142/1269 ). Comparisons of the horizontal sediment grain velocity with the horizontal fluid velocity yielded a linear relationship with a slope of 0.87. The vertical grain velocities also varied linearly with the vertical fluid velocity with a slope of approximately 1 and an offset of −0.08 m s −1 . The offset is close to the still water settling velocity for coarse sand grains, as hypothesized during vortex trapping. Additionally, estimates of the off-center distance, between the centers of the semi-circular sediment paths and vortex cores, compared well with the ratio of the settling velocity to the radian frequency of the vortex yielding a linear regression slope of 0.99. Improved understanding of vortex trapping effects on sediment dynamics may decrease uncertainty in model predictions of large-scale coastal hydrodynamics and sediment transport.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2023

Comparing sediment microbial communities of Arctic beaver ponds to tundra lakes and streams

In recent decades the habitat of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) has expanded from boreal forests into Arctic tundra ecosystems. Beaver ponds in Arctic watersheds are known to alter stream biogeochemistry, which is likely coupled with changes in the activity and composition of microbial communities inhabiting beaver pond sediments. We investigated bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities in beaver pond sediments along tundra streams in northwestern Alaska (AK), USA and compared them to those of tundra lakes and streams in north-central Alaska that are unimpacted by beavers. β -glucosidase activity assays indicated higher cellulose degradation potential in beaver ponds than in unimpacted streams and lakes within a watershed absent of beavers. Beta diversity analyses showed that dominant lineages of bacteria and archaea in beaver ponds differed from those in tundra lakes and streams, but dominant fungal lineages did not differ between these sample types. Beaver pond sediments displayed lower relative abundances of Crenarchaeota and Euryarchaeota archaea and of bacteria from typically anaerobic taxonomic groups, suggesting differences in rates of fermentative organic matter (OM) breakdown, syntrophy, and methane generation. Beaver ponds also displayed low relative abundances of Chytridiomycota (putative non-symbiotic) fungi and high relative abundances of ectomycorrhizal (plant symbionts) Basidiomycota fungi, suggesting differences in the occurrence of plant and fungi mutualistic interactions. Beaver ponds also featured microbes with taxonomic identities typically associated with the cycling of nitrogen and sulfur compounds in higher relative abundances than tundra lakes and streams. These findings help clarify the microbiological implications of beavers expanding into high latitude regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Spatial, seasonal, and diel controls of nitrogen-carbon-oxygen cycling during lake-water infiltration to an aquifer

Many freshwater lakes are groundwater flow-through systems. Although lakes commonly are considered to be sinks for nitrogen inputs, relatively little is known about carbon and nitrogen export from lakes to groundwater. The current study focused on lake-bottom biogeochemical processes accompanying the transport of nitrogen, dissolved oxygen (O 2 ), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during lake-water recharge from a groundwater flow-through lake. Lake-water and porewater (15–100 cm below lakebed) samples were collected along transects within the lake downwelling zone. Infiltrating porewater O 2 and DOC concentrations decreased with depth while nitrate (NO 3 − ) concentrations increased, indicating nitrification of organic matter within the profiles. The depth of NO 3 − production and transport was seasonally dependent. In winter, NO 3 − and O 2 were exported beyond 100-cm depth; whereas in summer, shallow nitrification zones were underlain by deeper NO 3 − reduction zones, and diel patterns of O 2 and NO 3 − penetration depths were observed. Microbial community compositions and stable isotope profiles (δ 15 N[NO 3 − ], δ 18 O[NO 3 − ], δ 18 O[O 2 ]) were consistent with apparent C–N–O reaction stoichiometries indicating O 2 reduction and nitrification in shallower porewater, followed by varying NO 3 − reduction at depth. Maximum porewater NO 3 − concentrations (∼10–20 μM) were limited by infiltrating O 2 concentrations and C/N ratios of reacting organic matter. Lake-water level variations caused changes in shoreline position and porewater velocities, while variations in lake-water temperature, DOC, and O 2 contributed to changes in reaction rates and depth of O 2 and NO 3 − penetration into the lakebed. The quality of groundwater recharged by lake water reflected temporally and spatially varying physical and biogeochemical processes in the sediment porewater.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2025

Quantifying the effect of petrogenic carbon on SOC turnover for two Rocky Mountain soils: When are petrogenic carbon corrections required?

Petrogenic organic carbon (OC petro ), derived from sedimentary rocks, is an often overlooked and poorly quantified source of soil organic carbon (SOC), which may influence measured or modeled SOC composition, age, and stability. In this study, we exploited differences in thermochemical stability between OC petro and biogenic SOC (OC bio ) using stepped elemental analysis to quantify the fractional contribution of OC petro to total SOC (f petro ), and we conducted a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of OC petro on modeled SOC transit times and system ages. Specifically, we compared the effects of accounting for OC petro inputs in SOC turnover modeling (using SoilR) for two montane meadow soils that are underlain by Cretaceous Mancos Shale. At these sites, we estimate that OC petro comprises 7%–9% of the total SOC stock (f petro = 0.07–0.09). However, accounting for OC petro as a mixture of inert and passive C or as completely inert C had negligible effects on SOC transit times and system ages, suggesting that there is a threshold of OC petro content under which there is minimal effect on calculated SOC turnover. Based on our sensitivity analysis, we estimate this threshold to be f petro = 0.125, further supporting that the accurate calculation of OC petro remains an important factor in estimating SOC turnover.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Challenging ring-current models of the Carrington storm

A detailed analysis is made of horizontal-component geomagnetic-disturbance data acquired at the Colaba observatory in India recording the Carrington magnetic storm of September 1859. Prior to attaining its maximum absolute value, disturbance at Colaba increased with an e -folding timescale of 0.46 hr (28 min). Following its maximum, absolute disturbance at Colaba decreased as a trend having an e -folding timescale of 0.31 hr (19 min). Both of these timescales are much shorter than those characterizing the drift period of ring-current ions. Furthermore, over one 28-min interval when absolute disturbance was increasing, the data indicate an absolute rate of change of ≥2,436 nT/hr. If this is representative of disturbance generated by a symmetric magnetospheric ring current, then, assuming a standard and widely used parameterization, an interplanetary electric field of ≥451 mV/m is indicated. An idealized and extreme solar-wind dynamic pressure could, conceivably, reduce this bound on the interplanetary electric field to ≥202 mV/m. If the parameterization for electric-field extrapolation is accurate, but the field strengths obtained are deemed implausible, then it can be concluded that the Colaba disturbance data were significantly affected by partial-ring, field-aligned, or ionospheric currents. The same conclusion is supported by the shortness of the e -folding timescales characterizing the Colaba data. Several prominent studies of the Carrington event need to be reconsidered.

Journal of Geophysical Research Space Physics↗
USGS2024

Limited preservation of strike-slip surface displacement in the geomorphic record

Offset geomorphic markers are commonly used to interpret slip history of strike-slip faults and have played an important role in forming earthquake recurrence models. These data sets are typically analyzed using cumulative probability methods to interpret average amounts of slip in past earthquakes. However, interpretation of the geomorphic record to infer surface slip history is complicated by slip variability, measurement uncertainty, and modification of offset features in the landscape. To investigate how well geomorphic data record surface slip, we use offset measurements from recent strike-slip surface ruptures ( n = 39), faults with geomorphic evidence of multiple strike-slip earthquakes ( n = 29), and synthetic slip distributions with added noise ( n > 10,000) to examine the constraints of the geomorphic record and the underlying assumptions of the cumulative offset probability distribution analysis method. We find that the geomorphic record is unlikely to resolve more than two paleo-slip distributions, except in specific cases with low slip variability, high slip-per-event, and semiarid climate. In cases where site-specific conditions allow for interpretation of more than two earthquakes, lateral extrapolation along a fault is not straightforward because on-fault displacement and distributed deformation may be spatially variable in each earthquake. We also find that average slip in modern earthquakes is adequately recovered by probability methods, but the reported prevalence of strike-slip faults with characteristic slip history is not supported by geomorphic data. We also propose updated methods to interpret slip history and construct uncertainty bounds for paleo-slip distributions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Controls on the stratigraphic architecture of the US Atlantic margin: Processes forming the accommodation space

Accommodation space governs the spatial and temporal distributions of sediments in continental margins. Mapping the sedimentation patterns, therefore, offers insights into the solid-Earth processes that shape accommodation space. We assembled an unprecedented amount of seismic and borehole data along the Eastern North American Margin and used it to divide the margin's sedimentary package into eight chronostratigraphic intervals, identifying temporal shifts in depocenters under the continental shelf, slope, and rise. The Jurassic depocenters follow the syn-rift structure and its thermal subsidence loci. The Long Island Platform is the only margin segment where the early post-rift sediment thickness matches subsidence predictions from uniform-stretching models, whereas in Georges Bank Basin (GBB) and Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT), sediment thickness is 1.5–3 times higher than predicted, pointing to other factors at play. A margin-wide Jurassic transient shoulder uplift is inferred from the occurrence of stratigraphic onlaps above thinned crust. Unlike the Jurassic, the Cretaceous and Cenozoic depocenters disregard the inherited subsidence pattern. The accommodation space over the shelf and coastal plain during the Cretaceous was affected by regional isostatic compensation of the sedimentary loads accumulated on the shelf and rise. Accommodation space development in the GBB was interrupted during the Cretaceous after the margin crossed the Great Meteor Hotspot track, resulting in a widespread permanent uplift, erosion, and sediment redistribution. The distribution of anomalous Neogene subsidence in the BCT challenges previous suggestions of mantle dynamic control on the accommodation space and favors flexural downwarping of the shelf by sediment accumulation on the rise.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Earthquake cycle mechanics during caldera collapse: Simulating the 2018 Kīlauea eruption

In multiple observed caldera-forming eruptions, the rock overlying a draining magma reservoir dropped downward along ring faults in sequences of discrete collapse earthquakes. These sequences are analogous to tectonic earthquake cycles and provide opportunities to examine fault mechanics and collapse eruption dynamics over multiple events. Collapse earthquake cycles have been studied with zero-dimensional slider-block models, but these do not account for the complicated interplay between fluid and elastic dynamics or for factors such as the heterogeneous fault properties and non-vertical ring fault geometries often inferred at volcanoes. We present two-dimensional axisymmetric mafic piston-like collapse earthquake cycle models that include rate-and-state friction, fully-dynamic elasticity, and compressible viscous fluid magma flow. We demonstrate that collapse earthquake intervals and magnitudes are highly sensitive to inertial effects, evolving stress fields, fault geometry, and depth-varying fault friction. Given the consistent earthquake cycles observed in most eruptions, this suggests that ring faults can quickly stabilize and often become nearly vertical at depth. We use the well-monitored 2018 collapse sequence at Kı̄lauea as a case study. Our model can produce many features of Kı̄lauea seismic and geodetic observations, except for a significant amount of interseismic slip, which cannot be readily explained with simple rate-and-state friction parameterizations.

Hawaii↗