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Threats and stressors to the health of the ecosystems of Lakes Mead and Mohave: Chapter 6 in A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

Ecosystem impacts from visitor activities or natural environmental change are important concerns in all units of the National Park system. Possible impacts to aquatic ecosystems at Lake Mead National Recreation Area (LMNRA) are of particular concern because of the designation of Lakes Mead and Mohave as critical habitat for the federally listed endangered razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus), the significance of the sport fishery, and the regional importance of its habitats to more than 90 documented species of waterbirds. Potential threats to shoreline habitats are of concern not only for their ecosystem values but also for maintaining the recreational setting. Many areas adjacent to the shorelines of Lakes Mead and Mohave are designated wilderness areas. For purposes of this document, stressors are any chemical, biological, or physical agent that has a detrimental effect on aquatic ecosystems at the organism, population, or community level. Human-made stressors at Lakes Mead and Mohave include direct effects of recreation on the lakes, like boating and fishing, as well as indirect effects of activities away from the lakes, such as growing population and increasing urbanization. Common natural environmental stressors include extended changes in climate (precipitation or temperature), or the erosion, transport, and loading of chemical constituents in rocks and sediments to aquatic environments. Human activity also can exacerbate natural stressors in a variety of ways.

Circular↗

Comparison of effects of humans versus wildlife-detector dogs

The use of dogs ( Canis lupus familiaris ) trained to locate wildlife under natural conditions may increase the risk of attracting potential predators or alter behavior of target species. These potentially negative effects become even more problematic when dealing with threatened or endangered species, such as the Mojave Desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ). We addressed three concerns regarding use of dogs trained to locate desert tortoises in the wild. First, we looked at the potential for dogs to attract native and non-native predators to sites at a greater rate than with human visitation alone by comparing presence of predator sign before and after visitation by dogs and by humans. We found no significant difference in predator sign based upon type of surveyor. Second, we looked at the difference in risk of predation to desert tortoises that were located in the wild by humans versus humans with wildlife-detector dogs. Over a 5-week period, during which tortoises were extensively monitored and a subsequent period of 1 year during which tortoises were monitored monthly, there was no predation on, nor sign of predator-inflicted trauma to tortoises initially encountered either by humans or wildlife-detector dogs. Third, we looked at movement patterns of tortoises after encounter by either humans or wildlife-detector dogs. Movement of desert tortoises was not significantly different after being found by a human versus being found by a wildlife-detector dog. Based upon these initial results we conclude that use of trained wildlife-detector dogs to survey for desert tortoises in the wild does not appear to increase attraction of predators, increase risk of predation, or alter movement patterns of desert tortoises more than surveys conducted by humans alone.

Southwestern Naturalist↗

Agricultural conversion without external water and nutrient inputs reduces terrestrial vegetation productivity

Driven by global population and standard of living increases, humanity co-opts a growing share of the planet's natural resources resulting in many well-known environmental trade-offs. In this study, we explored the impact of agriculture on a resource fundamental to life on Earth: terrestrial vegetation growth (net primary production; NPP). We demonstrate that agricultural conversion has reduced terrestrial NPP by ~7.0%. Increases in NPP due to agricultural conversion were observed only in areas receiving external inputs (i.e., irrigation and/or fertilization). NPP reductions were found for ~88% of agricultural lands, with the largest reductions observed in areas formerly occupied by tropical forests and savannas (~71% and ~66% reductions, respectively). Without policies that explicitly consider the impact of agricultural conversion on primary production, future demand-driven increases in agricultural output will likely continue to drive net declines in global terrestrial productivity, with potential detrimental consequences for net ecosystem carbon storage and subsequent climate warming.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Effects of spatial disturbance on common loon nest site selection and territory success

The common loon ( Gavia immer ) breeds during the summer on northern lakes and water bodies that are also often desirable areas for aquatic recreation and human habitation. In northern New England, we assessed how the spatial nature of disturbance affects common loon nest site selection and territory success. We found through classification and regression analysis that distance to and density of disturbance factors can be used to classify observed nest site locations versus random points, suggesting that these factors affect loon nest site selection (model 1: Correct classification = 75%, null = 50%, K = 0.507, P < 0.001; model 2: Correct classification = 78%, null = 50%, K = 0.551, P < 0.001). However, in an exploratory analysis, we were unable to show a relation between spatial disturbance variables and breeding success ( P = 0.595, R 2 = 0.436), possibly because breeding success was so low during the breeding seasons of 2007–2008. We suggest that by selecting nest site locations that avoid disturbance factors, loons thereby limit the effect that disturbance will have on their breeding success. Still, disturbance may force loons to use sub-optimal nesting habitat, limiting the available number of territories, and overall productivity. We advise that management efforts focus on limiting disturbance factors to allow breeding pairs access to the best nesting territories, relieving disturbance pressures that may force sub-optimal nest placement.

Maine, New Hampshire↗

Using indirect methods to constrain symbiotic nitrogen fixation rates: A case study from an Amazonian rain forest

Human activities have profoundly altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle. Increases in anthropogenic N have had multiple effects on the atmosphere, on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, and even on human health. Unfortunately, methodological limitations challenge our ability to directly measure natural N inputs via biological N fixation (BNF)-the largest natural source of new N to ecosystems. This confounds efforts to quantify the extent of anthropogenic perturbation to the N cycle. To address this gap, we used a pair of indirect methods -analytical modeling and N balance-to generate independent estimates of BNF in a presumed hotspot of N fixation , a tropical rain forest site in central Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. Our objectives were to attempt to constrain symbiotic N fixation rates in this site using indirect methods , and to assess strengths and weaknesses of this approach by looking for areas of convergence and disagreement between the estimates. This approach yielded two remarkably similar estimates of N fixation . However, when compared to a previously published bottom-up estimate, our analysis indicated much lower N inputs via symbiotic BNF in the Rondônia site than has been suggested for the tropics as a whole. This discrepancy may reflect errors associated with extrapolating bottom-up fluxes from plot-scale measures, those resulting from the indirect analyses, and/or the relatively low abundance of legumes at the Rondônia site. While indirect methods have some limitations, we suggest that until the technological challenges of directly measuring N fixation are overcome, integrated approaches that employ a combination of model-generated and empirically-derived data offer a promising way of constraining N inputs via BNF in natural ecosystems.

Biogeochemistry↗

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Influence of dissolved organic matter on the environmental fate of metals, nanoparticles, and colloids

We have known for decades that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycling of trace metals and the mobility of colloidal particles in aquatic environments. In recent years, concerns about the ecological and human health effects of metal-based engineered nanoparticles released into natural waters have increased efforts to better define the nature of DOM interactions with metals and surfaces. Nanomaterials exhibit unique properties and enhanced reactivities that are not apparent in larger materials of the same composition 1,2 or dissolved ions of metals that comprise the nanoparticles. These nanoparticle-specific properties generally result from the relatively large proportion of the atoms located at the surface, which leads to very high specific surface areas and a high proportion of crystal lattice imperfections relative to exposed surface area. Nanoscale colloids are ubiquitous in nature,2 and many engineered nanomaterials have analogs in the natural world. The properties of these materials, whether natural or manmade, are poorly understood, and new challenges have been presented in assessing their environmental fate. These challenges are particularly relevant in aquatic environments where interactions with DOM are key, albeit often overlooked, moderators of reactivity at the molecular and nanocolloidal scales.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Trophic implications of a phenological paradigm shift: Bald eagles and salmon in a changing climate

Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound. Using multiple long‐term datasets, we evaluated local bald eagle abundance in relation to chum and coho salmon availability; salmon phenology; and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit. We analysed changes over time as a reflection of climate change impacts, as well as differences between managed and unmanaged portions of the river. We found that peaks in chum salmon and bald eagle presence have advanced at remarkably similar rates ( c . 0.45 days/year), suggesting synchronous phenological responses within this trophic relationship. Yet the temporal relationship between chum salmon spawning and flood events, which remove salmon carcasses from the system, has not remained constant. This has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby the peak of chum spawning now occurs before the first flood event of the season rather than after. The interval between peak chum and first flood event was a significant predictor of bald eagle presence: as this interval grew over time (by nearly one day per year), bald eagle counts declined, with a steady decrease in bald eagle observations since 2002. River section was also an important factor, with fewer flood events, and more eagle observations occurring in the river section experiencing direct hydroelectric flow management. Synthesis and applications . The effects of climate change and hydroelectric management contribute to a complex human footprint in the North Cascades National Park, an otherwise largely natural ecosystem. By accounting for the differential phenological impacts of climate change on bald eagles, salmon, and flood events, Park managers and the operators of the hydroelectric system can more effectively ensure the resilience of the eagle–salmon relationship along the Skagit River.

Washington↗

Ecological divergence of wild birds drives avian influenza spillover and global spread

The diversity of influenza A viruses (IAV) is primarily hosted by two highly divergent avian orders: Anseriformes (ducks, swans and geese) and Charadriiformes (gulls, terns and shorebirds). Studies of IAV have historically focused on Anseriformes, specifically dabbling ducks, overlooking the diversity of hosts in nature, including gull and goose species that have successfully adapted to human habitats. This study sought to address this imbalance by characterizing spillover dynamics and global transmission patterns of IAV over 10 years at greater taxonomic resolution than previously considered. Furthermore, the circulation of viral subtypes in birds that are either host-adapted (low pathogenic H13, H16) or host-generalist (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI H5) provided a unique opportunity to test and extend models of viral evolution. Using Bayesian phylodynamic modelling we uncovered a complex transmission network that relied on ecologically divergent bird hosts. The generalist subtype, HPAI H5 was driven largely by wild geese and swans that acted as a source for wild ducks, gulls, land birds, and domestic geese. Gulls were responsible for moving HPAI H5 more rapidly than any other host, a finding that may reflect their long-distance, pelagic movements and their immuno-naïve status against this subtype. Wild ducks, long viewed as primary hosts for spillover, occupied an optimal space for viral transmission, contributing to geographic expansion and rapid dispersal of HPAI H5. Evidence of inter-hemispheric dispersal via both the Pacific and Atlantic Rims was detected, supporting surveillance at high latitudes along continental margins to achieve early detection. Both neutral (geographic expansion) and non-neutral (antigenic selection) evolutionary processes were found to shape subtype evolution which manifested as unique geographic hotspots for each subtype at the global scale. This study reveals how a diversity of avian hosts contribute to viral spread and spillover with the potential to improve surveillance in an era of rapid global change.

PLoS Pathogens↗

Southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population biology at Big Sur and Monterey, California --Investigating the consequences of resource abundance and anthropogenic stressors for sea otter recovery

The range of the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) spans most of the central California coast from Half Moon Bay to Gaviota. Some coastal areas within this range are heavily developed and highly impacted by humans, while other areas are wild and largely pristine. Determining the relative importance of food resource abundance, environmental conditions, and anthropogenic increases in pathogens and pollutants to population change in sea otters is critical to understanding limitations to population growth. To investigate the causal links between the sluggish population growth of sea otters in central California and factors that could be driving variation in survival and reproduction, we designed a study to compare two distinct subpopulations—one in an area of low human impact (Big Sur) and one in an area of high human impact (Monterey). Between 2008 and 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey and collaborators conducted a telemetry-based study of sea otters at these two locations. The results of this study were not consistent with the hypothesis that sea otters adjacent to human population centers (Monterey) experience higher exposure to pollutants and pathogens than those in lower impacted areas (Big Sur). In fact, based on serological analysis, female sea otters from Big Sur showed higher exposure rates to Toxoplasma gondii than did female otters from Monterey, while domoic acid exposure appeared to be similar at both sites. Gene expression (specifically transcription) analysis did not indicate any consistent differences between the two populations that would have suggested a response to pathogen or toxin exposure, although there were temporal changes in gene transcription for sea otters at Big Sur following potential exposure to run-off from wildfires that occurred during the study. Together, these metrics suggest that variation in exposure to environmental stressors occurred, but patterns were not clearly attributable to differences in human population densities or land-use patterns. When compared to Monterey, sea otters in Big Sur spent more time feeding, had a higher degree of dietary specialization, were in poorer body condition, and had lower survival rates (both pups and adults). Together, these metrics suggest that otters at Big Sur had greater nutritional stress, consistent with lower per-capita resource abundance. Overall, study results indicate that density-dependent population regulation, mediated by per-capita resource abundance, is the most significant factor currently limiting population growth in the center part of the range. Additionally, spatial and temporal variation in environmental and anthropogenic stressors also can affect sea otter health, although patterns of variation are complex and are not simply a function of proximity to human populations. We also found that exposure to environmental stressors (either natural or anthropogenic in origin) often is associated with resource limitation. Finally, our results indicate that sea otter populations are structured at relatively small spatial scales, and the processes that regulate population abundance (including density-dependent resource abundance) also occur at these smaller, more local scales.

California↗

Distribution and mass loss of volatile organic compounds in the surficial aquifer at sites FT03, LF13, and WP14/LF15, Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, November 2000–February 2001

Ground-water and surface-water sampling was conducted in the natural attenuation study area in the East Management Unit of Dover Air Force Base, Delaware to determine the distributions of volatile organic compounds in the vicinity of four sites?Fire Training Area Three, the Rubble Area Landfill, the Receiver Station Landfill, and the Liquid Waste Disposal Landfill. This work was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, as part of an ongoing assessment of the effectiveness of natural attenuation at these sites. The specific objectives of the study were to (1) determine the areal and vertical extent of the contaminant plumes and source areas, (2) measure volatile organic compound concentrations in ground-water discharge areas and in surface water under base-flow conditions, (3) evaluate the potential for off-site migration of the mapped plumes, and (4) estimate the amount of mass loss downgradient of the Liquid Waste Disposal and Receiver Station Landfills. A direct-push drill rig and previously installed multi-level piezometers were used to determine the three-dimensional distributions of volatile organic compounds in the 30?60-foot-thick surficial aquifer underlying the natural attenuation study area. A hand -driven mini-piezometer was used to collect ground-water samples in ground-water discharge areas. A total of 319 ground-water and 4 surface-water samples were collected from November 2000 to February 2001 and analyzed for chlorinated solvents and fuel hydrocarbons. The contaminant plumes migrating from Fire Training Area Three and the Rubble Area Landfill are approximately 500 feet and 800 feet, respectively, in length. These plumes consist predominantly of cis-1,2-dichloroethene, a daughter product, indicating that extensive dechlorination of tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene has occurred at these sites. With an approximate length of 2,200 feet, the plume migrating from the Receiver Station and Liquid Waste Disposal Landfills is the largest of the three plumes in the East Management Unit. In this plume, the parent compounds, tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene, as well as cis-1,2-dichloroethene, are present downgradient of the source. Vinyl chloride was not detected in the natural attenuation study area. Vertical water-quality profiles indicate that volatile organic compounds are present mainly in the upper part of the surficial aquifer. Plumes of fuel hydrocarbon constituents were not detected in the natural attenuation study area. Volatile organic compounds were present at concentrations above detection limits in 6 of 14 samples collected from the aquifer underlying the bed of Pipe Elm Branch and the drainage ditch adjacent to Fire Training Area Three, indicating that the plumes migrating from Fire Training Area Three and the Receiver Station and Liquid Waste Disposal Landfills are reaching these ground-water discharge areas. In contrast, sampling results indicated that the plume from the Rubble Area Landfill does not reach these ground-water discharge areas. Trichloroethene was present above detection limits in one of four surface-water samples collected from Pipe Elm Branch and the drainage ditch adjacent to Fire Training Area Three. The trichloroethene concentration is below applicable Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control surface-water-quality standards for human health. An assessment of chlorinated-solvent mass loss in the plume migrating from the Receiver Station and Liquid Waste Disposal Landfills indicates that tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene mass loss downgradient of the source is negligible. Cis-1,2-dichloroethene, however, appears to biodegrade by an unidentified reaction in the plume. Plan-view maps of the plume migrating from the Receiver Station and Liquid Waste Disposal Landfills indicate that tetrachloroethene, trichloroethene, and cis-1,2-dichloroethene may migrate off Dover Air Force Base property approximately 1,500 f

Delaware↗

Wolves and caribou in Denali National Park, Alaska

Management of gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) and their prey in interior Alaska has been controversial for three decades (Harbo and Dean 1983). Recently, debate was rekindled with renewed interest in wolf control to bolster two populations of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ). Our research in Denali National Park provides insights into the declines in caribou numbers over the last few years that are the basis of recent wolf control proposals. Our observations of fluctuating populations also illustrate the complexity of managing these predator-prey systems to meet a diverse array of public interests. Wolves and caribou are two components of the large mammal community of Denali National Park that also includes grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ), moose ( Alces alces ), and Dall sheep ( Ovis dalli ). With the 1980 park expansion to more than 18,800 km2 (7,300 mi2) of central Alaska, this large mammal system became the only one of its kind that is virtually unaffected by human harvest. Therefore, Denali provides a unique opportunity to understand the natural interactions of these species and serves as a baseline for comparison with areas where hunting or other active wildlife management occurs. We have studied Denali's wolves and caribou since 1986 to determine their numbers and status and understand their natural interactions in this protected subarctic ecosystem. Our studies began near the end of more than a decade of mostly light winter snowfalls of around 100 cm (39 in)/yr. Since winter 1988-89, we have experienced five consecutive winters with above-average snowfalls, including two record-setting years. During winters 1990-91 and 1992-93, more than 390 cm (154 in) of snow fell, four times as much as in the early years of our study. This change in snowfall had profound effects on the wildlife in central Alaska. The population trends of Denali's caribou and wolves are strong evidence of the natural fluctuations to be expected in species inhabiting such dynamic and variable environments.

Alaska↗

An overview of raptor conservation in Latin America

Prior to the last decade, biological studies of raptorial birds in Latin America were almost nonexistent. For many species little more was known than their general range and habitat type. The last few years have seen the opening of a door to what will surely be a flood of scientific investigations. Ultimately, the survival of raptor communities in Latin America depends not only on research but also on several other equally significant conservation efforts. These typically appear in the following order: first, appropriate legislation must be enacted and enforced to provide legal protection; second, the public must be educated concerning the value of wildlife; third, substantial blocks of favourable habitat must be identified and preserved; fourth, economic incentives must be generated so that the local human populations actually benefit from the preservation of vulnerable wildlife and natural habitats; and finally, the long-term success of all of these efforts in each nation depends on the attainment of political, economic and social stability.

Birds of Prey Bulletin↗

Science data in support of environmental health studies in the U.S.-Mexico border region

The border region of the United States and Mexico encompasses a vast and diverse array of physical settings and habitats that include wetlands, deserts, rangeland, mountains, and forests, which are unique in terms of the diversity of their water, mineral, and biological resources. The region is interconnected economically, politically, and socially owing to its binational heritage. In 1995, nearly 11 million people lived immediately adjacent to the border. By one account, that population could more than double by 2020. This rapid population growth and consequent economic development and land-use changes are pushing the limits of environmental sustainability and quality. Infrastructure development has lagged behind the rapid growth of the region, resulting in a shortage of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial uses. These stressors threaten the quality of life in the region and raise concerns about the interdependence of environmental quality and human health. To allow for continued economic growth while protecting the area’s natural resources and fostering a high quality of life, the United States and Mexico need an improved understanding of the threats posed by these anthropogenic changes. Issues of particular concern include (1) contaminants in ground water, surface water, and biota from agricultural, municipal, and industrial activities; (2) airborne pollutants from fossil-fuel combustion and other activities; (3) contaminants from past and present mining activities and mineral deposits; and (4) pathogens, pharmaceuticals, hormones, and other contaminants released in treated and untreated human and animal wastewaters.

Fact Sheet↗

Environmental factors predicting the orientation of sea turtle hatchlings on a naturally lighted beach: A baseline for light-management goals

On sea turtle nesting beaches, artificial lighting associated with human development interferes with hatchling orientation from nest to sea. Although hatchling disorientation has been documented for many beaches, data that managers can use in understanding, predicting, and managing the issue are of limited detail. The present study provides baseline hatchling orientation data that can be compared to those from beaches with artificial lighting to prioritize light-management efforts there. In 2014, the precision of hatchling orientation was quantified for 87 nests on a naturally lighted beach that had little to no artificial lighting. Precision of hatchling orientation was regressed against seven environmental variables: beach slope, distance from nest to dune, dune height, apparent dune silhouette height relative to nest site, moon illumination percentage, cloud cover percentage, and relative humidity. Results favored a regression model that included distance from nest to dune, with shorter distances from the dune predicting a narrower angular range (i.e., greater precision) of hatchling orientation. The study confirmed findings of an earlier laboratory experiment that highlighted the importance to accurate hatchling orientation of a dark silhouette (dune) on the side of the nest site opposite the ocean side. Reducing artificial light and promoting the planting of pioneer plants that assist dune formation can increase hatchling survival.

Florida↗

Cross-continental evaluation of landscape-scale drivers and their impacts to fluvial fishes: Understanding frequency and severity to improve fish conservation in Europe and the United States

Fluvial fishes are threatened globally from intensive human landscape stressors degrading aquatic ecosystems. However, impacts vary regionally, as stressors and natural environmental factors differ between ecoregions and continents. To date, a comparison of fish responses to landscape stressors over continents is lacking, limiting understanding of consistency of impacts and hampering efficiencies in conserving fishes over large regions. This study addresses these shortcomings through a novel, integrative assessment of fluvial fishes throughout Europe and the conterminous United States. Using large-scale datasets, including information on fish assemblages from more than 30,000 locations on both continents, we identified threshold responses of fishes summarized by functional traits to landscape stressors including agriculture, pasture, urban area, road crossings, and human population density. After summarizing stressors by catchment unit (local and network) and constraining analyses by stream size (creeks vs. rivers), we analyzed stressor frequency (number of significant thresholds) and stressor severity (value of identified thresholds) within ecoregions across Europe and the United States. We document hundreds of responses of fish metrics to multi-scale stressors in ecoregions across two continents, providing rich findings to aid in understanding and comparing threats to fishes across the study regions. Collectively, we found that lithophilic species and, as expected, intolerant species are most sensitive to stressors in both continents, while migratory and rheophilic species are similarly strongly affected in the United States. Also, urban land use and human population density were most frequently associated with declines in fish assemblages, underscoring the pervasiveness of these stressors in both continents. This study offers an unprecedented comparison of landscape stressor effects on fluvial fishes in a consistent and comparable manner, supporting conservation of freshwater habitats in both continents and worldwide.

Europe↗

Predicting surf zone injuries along the Delaware coast using a Bayesian network

Personnel at Beebe Healthcare in Lewes, Delaware, collected surf zone injury (SZI) data for eight summer seasons from 2010 through 2017. Data include, but are not limited to, time of injury, gender, age, and activity. More than 2000 SZI events, including 196 spinal injuries and 6 fatalities, occurred at the five most populated beaches along the 25 miles of Atlantic-fronting coast. SZI are predominantly wave related incidents associated with wading (50.1%), body surfing (18.4%), and body boarding (13.3%). The episodic nature of SZI indicate the importance of linking the environmental conditions and human behavior in the surf zone to predict days with high injury rates. Higher order statistics are necessary to effectively consider all associated factors related to SZI. Two Bayesian networks (BN) were constructed to model SZI and predict changes in injury rate (proportion of injuries to bathers) and injury likelihood (probability of at least one injury occurrence) on an hourly basis. The models incorporate environmental data collected by weather stations, wave gauges, and researcher personnel on the beach. The models include prior (e.g., historic) information to infer relationships between provided parameters. Sensitivity analysis determined the most influential parameters related to injury rates were significant wave height, foreshore slope, and water temperature. Exposure parameters (e.g., air temperature) influenced the number of people in the water, resulting in strong correlation between injury likelihood and the related meteorological conditions (variance reduction > 0.4%). Log likelihood ratio (LLR) scores indicate the network predicts SZI likelihood during any specified hour with more skill than prior predictions with the best performing model improving prediction 69.1% of the time (LLR = 69.1%). An alternative BN predicting injury rate performed worse with the prior probability model out predicting the injury rate network (positive LLR = 36.7%). Issues persist with predicting SZI that have an LLR ≪ -1 (< 5% of 2017 injuries) and occur in conditions different than when most other SZI occur. Better understanding of SZI will improve awareness techniques to both educate beachgoers and assist beach patrol decision making during high risk conditions.

Delaware↗

Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular↗