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USGS2025

Predicting pup-rearing habitat for Mexican wolves

Population monitoring is essential to document recovery efforts for threatened and endangered species. Mexican wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) are an endangered subspecies of gray wolves that historically occupied large portions of the American Southwest and Mexico. Recently, the Mexican wolf population in the United States has been growing rapidly and traditional approaches for population monitoring (e.g., capture and radio collaring) are becoming difficult and expensive as wolves expand into new areas. We developed predictive models of pup-rearing habitat (i.e., den and rendezvous sites) that could help guide future population monitoring efforts. We located 255 den sites and 129 rendezvous sites in Arizona and New Mexico, USA (1998–2023) using tracking collars and site visits. We sampled habitat conditions in wolf-occupied regions of Arizona and New Mexico and fit logistic regressions to these data following a use–available study design to estimate resource selection functions (RSF) for den and rendezvous sites. We hypothesized wolves would select areas that offered greater physical protection, lower human-disturbance, and access to reliable water sources for pup-rearing but that the relative importance of these features would differ between the denning and rendezvous site seasons. Mexican wolves selected den sites at higher elevations in steeper and rougher terrain that were closer to permanent waterbodies but farther from rural roads. Selection of rendezvous sites was also associated with higher elevations and proximity to waterbodies but varied with availability of green leaf biomass on the landscape. While still highly predictive, our rendezvous site model was less predictive than our den model (Spearman's correlation averaged 0.81 [SE = 0.05] vs. 0.90 [SE = 0.03], respectively), possibly because water and green leaf biomass are more spatially diffuse and variable because of monsoonal rains during the rendezvous site season. Our results suggest that terrain features associated with physical protection and access to reliable water were most important in characterizing suitable pup-rearing habitat for Mexican wolves. By predicting suitable den and rendezvous site habitat across portions of the Mexican Wolf Experimental Population Area, our models can help guide future population monitoring by reducing the total search area when surveying for wolves and increase the probability of detecting all members of a pack.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Fall survival of American woodcock in the western Great Lakes Region

We estimated fall (10 Sep–8 Nov) survival rates, cause-specific mortality rates, and determined the magnitude and sources of mortality of 1,035 radio-marked American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 2001–2004. In all 3 states, we radio-marked woodcock on paired study areas; 1 of which was open to hunting and expected to receive moderate to high hunter use and the other of which was either closed to hunting (Michigan and Minnesota) or was relatively inaccessible to hunters (Wisconsin). We used Program MARK to estimate fall survival rates, to evaluate a set of candidate models to examine the effects of hunting and several covariates (sex, age, year, state) on survival, and to examine the relationship between survival rates and kill rates due to hunting. Hunting accounted for 70% of the 86 woodcock deaths in the hunted areas, followed by predation (20%) and various other sources of mortality (10%). Woodcock deaths that occurred in the non-hunted and lightly hunted areas ( n  = 50) were caused by predators (46%), hunting (32%), and various other sources (22%). Based on small-sample corrected Akaike's Information Criterion values, variation in fall survival of woodcock was best explained by treatment (i.e., hunted vs. non-hunted), year, and period (pre-hunting season intervals vs. hunting season intervals). The average fall survival estimate from our best model for woodcock in the non-hunted areas (0.893, 95% CI = 0.864–0.923) was greater than the average for the hunted areas (0.820, 95% CI = 0.786–0.854 [this estimate includes data from the lightly hunted area in Wisconsin]), and the average treatment effect (i.e., greater survival rates in non-hunted areas) was 0.074 (95% CI = 0.018–0.129). The kill rate due to hunting was 0.120 (95% CI = 0.090–0.151) when data were pooled among states and years. We detected a negative relationship between hunting kill rates and survival in our hunted areas, which suggests that hunting mortality was at least partially additive during fall. Our results illustrate the influence of hunting relative to other sources of mortality in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and indicate that managers may be able to influence fall survival rates by manipulating hunting regulations or access on public land.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2005

Effects of hunting on survival of American woodcock in the Northeast

Numbers of American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) males counted on the annual singing ground survey (SGS) have declined over the last 35 years at an average rate of 2.3% per year in the Eastern Region and 1.8% per year in the Central Region. Although hunting was not thought to be a cause of these declines, mortality caused by hunters can be controlled. Furthermore, there has been no research on effects of hunting mortality on woodcock populations at local and regional levels on the breeding grounds. We used radiotelemetry to determine survival rates and causes of mortality for 913 woodcock captured during fall 1997–2000 on 7 areas in Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Vermont, USA. Three of 7 sites were closed to hunting. For all sites and all years combined, 176 woodcock died, and 130 were censored, of which 39 were censored mortalities. Predation was the major ( n = 134, 76%) cause of mortality. Mammals accounted for 56% of the predation, raptors accounted for 25%, and 19% was attributed to unknown predators. On hunted sites, 36% of the total mortality ( n = 102) was caused by hunting, 63% by predation, and 1 bird starved. Kaplan-Meier survival curves did not differ between hunted and non-hunted sites among years ( P = 0.46). Overall, point estimates of survival did not differ ( P = 0.217) between hunted (SR = 0.636, SE = 0.04) and nonhunted sites (SR = 0.661, SE = 0.08). We modeled hazard rates from hunting and natural mortality events using program MARK. Akaike's Information Criterion supported using a model with common constant hazards from both hunting and natural causes for groups of sites. Groupings of sites for hazard rates from natural causes were not influenced by whether a site was hunted or not. Models detected no effects of woodcock age and sex ( P = 0.52) on survival. Proportional hazards models comparing hunted and nonhunted sites found no effects of age and sex ( P = 0.45), interactions of age, sex, capture weight, and bill length ( P ≥ 0.269). Our data suggest that current hunting regulations are not causing lower survival of woodcock.

Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont↗

USGS1991

Use of Wetland Habitats by Selected Nongame Water Birds in Maine

We examined the use of 87 palustrine and lacustrine wetlands by nongame water birds in central and eastern Maine using 3,527 h of observation (1,501 visits) made during April-August, 1977-85. Wetlands used by 15 species of water birds were distinguished from those not used, according to 20 habitat features. The species were the common loon (Gavia immer) , pied-billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus), American bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), great blue heron (Ardea herodias), green-backed heron (Butorides striatus), osprey (Pandion haliaetus), bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), Virgima rail (Rallus limicola), sora (Porzana carolina), spotted sandpiper (Actitis macularia), common snipe (Gallinago gallinago), herring gull (Larus argentatus), and belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon). Predictive models of habitat use were developed for each species. Water birds were classified by similarity of habitats used, and species use was contrasted by wetland type. Smaller, isolated wetlands were used by fewer (P < 0.05) species than larger wetlands in complexes; many species had large area-requirements (pied-billed grebe, common loon, herring gull, double-crested cormorant, bald eagle) or preferred to use wetlands near other wetlands (common loon, herring gull, great blue heron, spotted sandpiper, osprey, bald eagle). Wetland area contributed more to overall variation in species richness on wetlands than wetland isolation, although on small wetlands (<3.6 ha) isolation was a better predictor of species richness than wetland area. Wetlands with intermediate amounts (33-66%) of emergent vegetation supported more species (P< 0.05) than closed (>66%) or open (<33%) wetlands. Low pH typified wetlands used by large-bodied piscivores (common loon, cormorant, osprey). Other water birds were associated with more densely vegetated, chemically buffered wetlands. Habitat features associated with wetland use by each waterbird species are reported, as are numerical responses of waterbird populations to wetland features and estimates of annual variation in habitat occupancy. Lacustrine wetlands supported a distinct, low diversity community of water birds, including most fish-eating species. Waterbird diversity at forested palustrine wetlands was intermediate between lacustrine communities and more species-rich assemblages at palustrine emergent and scrub-shrub wetlands. Regional variation in wetland characteristics and water bird use was associated with surficial geology, soils, and management practices. Management for nongame water birds in Maine should consider providing emergent and aquatic-bed vegetation with variable cover-to-water ratios, accommodating species-specific habitat needs, focusing on species of restricted distribution and low abundance, and maintaining wetland complexes. Bird use and habitat information from 87 wetlands and models of habitat selection for each species are provided in appendixes.

Fish and Wildlife Research↗

USGS1986

DDE, DDT + dieldrin: Residues in American kestrels and relations to reproduction

Captive American kestrels (Falco sparverius) given long-term dietary dosages of DDT and dieldrin in combination, at low and high rates, were compared with controls to determine the effects of the toxicants on reproductive success and eggshell thickness. Additional kestrels were dosed with DDE to determine its effect on shell thickness. Tissues of birds that died or were sacrificed, and eggs, were analyzed for DDE, DDD, DDT, and dieldrin. Eight paired birds, mostly males, given a high dosage of DDT + dieldrin died of dieldrin poisoning. Three periods of heavy mortality involving only dosed birds, which occurred in summer 1966, fall 1967, and spring 1968, followed temperature declines and other stress factors. Organochlorine concentrations in tissues of sacrificed birds and eggs in all units of the DDT + dieldrin study were significantly different among treatments. Residue concentrations in tissues of birds on high dosage of DDT + dieldrin were about 3 times higher than those on low dosage, a difference similar to the relative magnitude of the dose rates. Concentrations of some toxicants, especially DDE, were significantly higher in tissues of males than females, although these differences were difficult to interpret because males generally were sacrificed later than females. Concentrations in tissues and eggs of dosed yearlings, placed on clean food 7 to 9 weeks before pairing, were often significantly lower than in those yearlings that remained on dosage. Concentrations of each toxicant were usually highly correlated (r > 0.85) among tissues, especially for DDE and dieldrin. Organochlorine concentrations in brains and eggs could be predicted from concentrations in carcasses. DDE and dieldrin concentrations in eggs were about one-half those in carcasses, DDD about one-seventh, and DDT 1.5 to 2 times higher in eggs than carcasses. Eggshells of DDT + dieldrin-dosed kestrels were 6-23% thinner than eggshells of corresponding controls in different groups and years. Organochlorine concentrations in eggs and tissues of females were poorly correlated with shell thickness. Of the four toxicants in eggs, DDE was significantly and most closely correlated with fledging success. Interpretation of direct comparisons between our DDT + dieldrin studies and most current field situations are difficult because contaminant profiles in our birds are unlike those in most field samples.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗

USGS1981

Birds of the St. Croix River valley: Minnesota and Wisconsin

The St. Croix River Valley encompasses nearly 11,550 km2 in east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. A wide range of habitats are available for birds including upland oak, lowland deciduous, maple-basswood, lowland and upland coniferous forests, natural basin wetlands, and grasslands. Situated in the north-central region of the United States, the valley is a biological 'crossroads' for many species. Because of the mixed affinities of plant communities, the valley includes the northern and southern range limits for a number of species. Also, because the valley lies near the forest-prairie transition zone, many typical western breeding species (e.g. pintail, western meadowlark, yellow-headed blackbird) breed in proximity to typical eastern species such as tufted titmouse, eastern meadowlark, and cardinal. From 1966 to 1980, I conducted extensive surveys of avian distribution and abundance in the St. Croix River Valley. I have supplemented the results of these surveys with published and unpublished observations contributed by many ornithologists. These additional data include compilations from Christmas Bird Counts sponsored by the National Audubon Society and from the Breeding Bird Survey coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Three hundred fourteen species have been recorded in the study area; data are presented on the migration period, nesting season distribution, winter distribution, relative abundance, and habitat use of each species. Recognizing the uniqueness of the area, and its importance not only to wildlife but also to man, the U.S. Congress designated the St. Croix a National Scenic Riverway. This action provided a considerable degree of protection to lands along and directly adjacent to the river. Unfortunately, no similar legal measure exists to protect lands away from the river. With the exception of the northern quarter of the St. Croix River Valley, agricultural interests have made significant inroads into the habitat base. The continuing expansion of the nearby Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region has degraded or destroyed many woodlots, upland fields, and wetlands. In numerous instances, degradation of natural habitats has influenced the abundance and distribution of bird species. Because of these changes, both the Federal government and State Departments of Natural Resources have listed several species in various categories based on their current status. In the St. Croix River Valley, seven species are endangered, eight are threatened, and 29 are watch or priority status in either or both states. Data presented in this report are of value to land managers, land use specialists, and ornithologists, in assessing current and projected habitat alterations on the avifauna of this valley. The St. Croix River bisects a large region of western Wisconsin and east central Minnesota that exhibits a wide range of habitat types. This region supports not only birds, but many mammals, fishes, reptiles and amphibians, and several thousand species of vascular and nonvascular plants. The river itself is relatively clean through most of its course, and its natural flow is interrupted by only two small dams. Because the river lies within a 1-day drive of nearly 10 million people (Waters 1977), use of the area for recreational purposes is extremely heavy. Recreational pursuits include sunbathing, boating, and wild river kayaking in the summer, and ice fishing and cross-country skiing in the winter. The large number of unique and highly fragile habitats that exist there may never be compatible with the uses and abuses of the land that go with expanding human populations. Through the efforts of a number of citizens concerned with the quality of their environment and the foresightedness of several local, State, and Federal legislators, a portion of the upper St. Croix River Valley (hereafter termed 'the Valley') was established as a National Wild and Scenic River. Through establishment of t

North American Fauna↗

USGS2016

Sagebrush, greater sage-grouse, and the occurrence and importance of forbs

Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) ecosystems provide habitat for sagebrush-obligate wildlife species such as the Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). The understory of big sagebrush plant communities is composed of grasses and forbs that are important sources of cover and food for wildlife. The grass component is well described in the literature, but the composition, abundance, and habitat role of forbs in these communities is largely unknown. Our objective was to synthesize information about forbs and their importance to Greater Sage-Grouse diets and habitats, how rangeland management practices affect forbs, and how forbs respond to changes in temperature and precipitation. We also sought to identify research gaps and needs concerning forbs in big sagebrush plant communities. We searched for relevant literature including journal articles and state and federal agency reports. Our results indicated that in the spring and summer, Greater Sage-Grouse diets consist of forbs (particularly species in the Asteraceae family), arthropods, and lesser amounts of sagebrush. The diets transition to sagebrush in fall and winter. Forbs provide cover for Greater Sage-Grouse individuals at their lekking, nesting, and brood-rearing sites, and the species has a positive relationship with arthropod presence. The effect of grazing on native forbs may be compounded by invasion of nonnative species and differs depending on grazing intensity. The effect of fire on forbs varies greatly and may depend on time elapsed since burning. In addition, chemical and mechanical treatments affect annual and perennial forbs differently. Temperature and precipitation influence forb phenology, biomass, and abundance differently among species. Our review identified several uncertainties and research needs about forbs in big sagebrush ecosystems. First, in many cases the literature about forbs is reported only at the genus or functional type level. Second, information about forb composition and abundance near lekking sites is limited, despite the fact that lekking sites are an important center of Greater Sage-Grouse activity. Third, there is little published literature on the relationship between forbs and precipitation and between forbs and temperature, thereby limiting our ability to understand potential responses of forbs to climate change. While there is wide agreement among Greater Sage-Grouse biologists that forbs are an important habitat component, our knowledge about the distribution and environmental responses of forb species in big sagebrush plant communities is limited. Our work for the first time synthesizes the current knowledge regarding forbs in sagebrush ecosystems and their importance for Greater Sage-Grouse and identifies additional research needs for effective conservation and management.

Western North American Naturalist↗

USGS2019

Migratory connectivity of American woodcock derived using satellite telemetry

American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ; woodcock) migratory connectivity (i.e., association between breeding and wintering areas) is largely unknown, even though current woodcock management is predicated on such associations. Woodcock are currently managed in the Eastern and Central management regions in the United States with the boundary between management regions analogous to the boundary between the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways, based largely on analysis of band returns from hunters. Factors during migration influence survival and fitness, and existing data derived from banding and very high frequency telemetry provide only coarse-scale information to assess factors influencing woodcock migratory movement patterns and behavior. To assess whether current management-region boundaries correspond with woodcock migratory connectivity in the Central Management Region and to describe migration patterns with higher resolution than has been previously possible, we deployed satellite transmitters on 73 woodcock (25 adult and 28 juvenile females, and 8 adult and 12 juvenile males) and recorded 87 autumn or spring migration paths from 2014 to 2016. Marked woodcock used 2 primary migrations routes: a Western Route and a Central Route. The Western Route ran north-south, connecting the breeding and wintering grounds within the Central Management Region. The hourglass-shaped Central Route connected an area on the wintering grounds reaching from Texas to Florida, to sites throughout northeastern North America in both the Eastern Management Region and Central Management Region and woodcock following this route migrated through the area between the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley in western Tennessee during autumn and spring. Two of 17 woodcock captured associated with breeding areas in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota migrated to wintering sites in the Eastern Management Region and 12 marked woodcock captured on wintering areas in Texas and Louisiana migrated to breeding sites in the Eastern Management Region. Woodcock that used the Western Route exhibited high concentrations of stopovers during spring in the Arkansas Ozark Mountains and northern Missouri, and along the Mississippi River on the border between Wisconsin and Minnesota, and autumn concentrations of stopovers in southwestern Iowa, central Missouri, the Arkansas portion of the Ozark Mountains, and around the junction of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Woodcock that used the Central Route exhibited high concentrations of stopovers during spring in northern Mississippi through western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and the Missouri Bootheel, and autumn concentrations of stopovers in northern Illinois, southwestern Ohio, and the portions of Kentucky and Tennessee west of the Appalachian Mountains. We suggest that current management of woodcock based on 2 management regions may not be consistent with the apparent lack of strong migratory connectivity we observed. Our results also suggest where management of migration habitat might be most beneficial to woodcock.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2004

Dynamic use of wetlands by black ducks and mallards: Evidence against competitive exclusion

The decline of the American black duck ( Anas rubripes ) has been attributed to competition from mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) that led to exclusive use of fertile wetlands by mallards. Data from annual breeding waterfowl surveys provide instantaneous, single observations of breeding pairs, which are used to estimate breeding population size and evaluate the condition of habitat. Data from these surveys have been used to document habitat use by black ducks and mallards. We used quiet-observation surveys from elevated platforms to study sympatric black ducks and mallards in northern Maine during the breeding season. Our objectives were to document occupancy of wetlands by breeding black ducks and mallards throughout the day during prenesting and early nesting periods to determine whether 1) wetlands were occupied by only a single species, 2) pairs of the same species occupied wetlands throughout the period, and 3) single observations of short duration adequately determine numbers and species using a wetland. We observed ducks at 5-minute intervals from elevated platforms on wetland margins to determine numbers and species of indicated pairs using each wetland over time. We visited 80% of the wetlands ≥2 times, with mean total time per wetland averaging 267 minutes. For each wetland we determined the most frequently observed grouping of black ducks and mallards from all combinations recorded during all intervals (e.g., 1 black duck [BO] pair during 9 intervals; 2 mallard [MA] pairs and 1 BO pair during 22 intervals; 0 pairs during 3 intervals). A single pair, a lone male, or no ducks were recorded during 34% of the 5-minute intervals. For wetlands with >2 hours of observations ( n =65 ), all but 2 were used by ≥2 different combinations of ducks. On most wetlands, the most frequent grouping was observed during <40% of the intervals. To simulate aerial surveys, we randomly selected 1 5-minute interval for each wetland. On average, the number of indicated pairs recorded during random 5-minute intervals was less than half of the total black duck pairs (2.0 vs. 4.4, P = 0.009 ), total mallard pairs (1.1 vs. 2.6, P= 0.0001), and pairs of both species combined (3.2 vs. 7.0, P= 0.0001) determined for each wetland based on total observations. On wetlands used by both species, random counts detected one or both species 49% of the time. Although 53 of the 65 wetlands observed ≥2 hours were used by both species, random visits detected both species on only 27 wetlands. Our data do not support assertions that the mallard has caused the decline of black ducks through interspecific competition for habitat, or that wetlands are occupied continuously by single pairs that aggressively exclude conspecifics. Our data indicated that single, short-duration visits with disturbance to wetlands are unreliable and inappropriate to document seasonal use of wetlands by breeding black ducks and mallards.

Maine↗

USGS1989

Population ecology and harvest of the American black duck: a review

1. The purpose of our review was to examine available data on population trends and current status of black ducks and trends in natality and survival and to relate these, where possible, to changes in habitat, predation, disease, contaminants, harvest, and hybridization with mallards. 2. The number of black ducks tallied in the winter survey has declined steadily over the past 30 years at an average rate of about 3%/ year. Reliability and precision of the survey are uncertain; it may not provide an adequate index to the continental population of black ducks. Breeding surveys are incomplete and sporadic, but black ducks have decreased in Ontario and increased in the Maritime Provinces and Quebec. 3. Recent declines in numbers of black ducks tallied in the winter survey are not unusual in magnitude or much different from those that have occurred among several other species of waterfowl. 4. At present, black ducks are not especially scarce relative to numbers of several other ducks in eastern North America. 5. There is no solid evidence of major decreases in quality or quantity of breeding habitat for black ducks in recent years; in some areas, habitat has improved. 6. Natural mortality of black ducks has not been well studied, but does not seem unusually high compared to other dabbling ducks. 7. Harvest rates of black ducks are similar to those of sympatric mallards as determined by banding analyses. 8. There is no strong evidence for direct effects of contaminants on black ducks, but some indirect effects through invertebrate food resources have been detected. 9. Age ratios in black ducks show no trend in the past 18 years. 10. The quality and quantity of wintering habitat for black ducks have decreased substantially in some areas. 11. Disease and other natural mortality that affect black ducks do .not occur in unusually high frequency. 12. A decline in harvest of black ducks has occurred; most of the decline has been in the United States, especially since restrictive regulations were implemented in 1983. 13. Recovery rates of black ducks have declined recently in the U.S., but not in Canada. 14. Survival rates of black ducks are 56-63% for adults and 43% for young. These rates of survival are similar to comparable estimates in sympatric mallards. 15. Long hunting seasons may depress survival in some sex-age classes of black ducks, buteffects of small reductions in survival on population trends are unknown. 16. Available evidence does not support the contention that hunting is either the sole or most important cause of the decline in the winter tally of black duck numbers. 17. Surveys and banding of black ducks should be thoroughly reviewed and maintained or improved as warranted. Obtaining or maintaining a reasonable index to numbers of black ducks is the top priority among survey needs. 18. Experimental manipulation of hunting seasons should be considered to elucidate relationships among regulations, harvest, survival, and population trends. 19. Black ducks and mallards are genetically similar; there is as much genetic differentiation within the 2 species as there is between them. 20. Black duck x mallard hybrids are fertile. Hybrids are difficult to detect by plumage and thus published frequencies (0-13%) of hybrids may be low. 21. Hybridization could be a result of concomitant mallard increases and black duck decreases, or changes in black duck-to-mallard ratios could be from hybridization and genetic swamping of black ducks.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2013

Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (p A and p B , respectively, or p , collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability for the larger of 2 mixture proportions of the population (i.e., p A or p B , depending on the value of π) was most important for predicting accuracy and precision, whereas capture probabilities of both mixture proportions (p A and p B ) were important to explain variation in coverage. Based on sampling conditions similar to parameter estimates from the empirical dataset (p A  = 0.30, p B  = 0.05, N = 250, π = 0.15, and k = 10), predicted accuracy and precision were low (60% and 53%, respectively), whereas coverage was high (94%). Increasing p B , the capture probability for the predominate but most difficult to capture proportion of the population, was most effective to improve accuracy under those conditions. However, manipulation of other parameters may be more effective under different conditions. In general, the probabilities of obtaining accurate and precise estimates were best when p ≥ 0.2. Our regression models can be used by managers to evaluate specific sampling scenarios and guide development of sampling frameworks or to assess reliability of DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies.

Tennessee↗

USGS2017

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part of the continent, on routes that fall outside the core survey area presently analyzed in the United States and southern Canada. Other species not historically analyzed occur in the core survey area with very limited data but have large portions of their ranges in Mexico and south. A third group of species not historically analyzed included species thought to be poorly surveyed by the BBS, such as rare, coastal, or nocturnal species. For 56 species found primarily in regions north of the core survey area, we expanded the scope of the analysis, using data from 1993 to 2014 during which ≥3 survey routes had been sampled in 6 northern strata (Bird Conservation regions in Alaska, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador) and fitting log-linear hierarchical models for an augmented BBS survey area that included both the new northern strata and the core survey area. We also applied this model to 168 species historically analyzed in the BBS that had data from these additional northern strata. For both groups of species we calculated survey-wide trends for the both core and augmented survey areas from 1993 to 2014; for species that did not occur in the newly defined strata, we computed trends from 1966 to 2014. We evaluated trend estimates in terms of established credibility criteria for BBS results, screening for imprecise trends, small samples, and low relative abundance. Inclusion of data from the northern strata permitted estimation of trend for 56 species not historically analyzed, but only 4 of these were reasonably monitored and an additional 13 were questionably monitored; 39 of these species were likely poorly monitored because of small numbers of samples or very imprecisely estimated trends. Only 4 of 66 “new” species found in the core survey area were reasonably monitored by the BBS; 20 were questionably monitored; and 42 were likely poorly monitored by the BBS because of inefficiency in precision, abundance, or sample size. The hierarchical analyses we present provide a means for reasonable inclusion of the additional species and strata in a common analysis with data from the core area, a critical step in the evolution of the BBS as a continent-scale survey. We recommend that results be presented both 1) from 1993 to the present using the expanded survey area, and 2) from 1966 to the present for the core survey area. Although most of the “new” species we analyzed were poorly monitored by the BBS during 1993–2014, continued expansion of the BBS will improve the quality of information in future analyses for these species and for the many other species presently monitored by the BBS.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS1984

Red fox predation on breeding ducks in midcontinent North America

Red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ) predation on nesting ducks was assessed by examining 1,857 adult duck remains found at 1,432 fox rearing dens from 1968 to 1973. Dabbling ducks were much more vulnerable to foxes than diving ducks. Dabbling ducks (1,798) found at dens consisted of 27% blue-winged teals ( Anas discors ), 23% mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ), 20% northern pintails (A. acuta), 9% northern shovelers ( Spatula clypeata ), 8% gadwalls ( A. strepera ), 3% green-winged teals ( A. crecca ), 2% American wigeons ( A. americana ), and 10% unidentified. Relative abundance of individual species and nesting chronology were the most important factors affecting composition of ducks taken by foxes. Seventy-six percent of 1,376 adult dabbling ducks and 40% of 30 adult diving ducks for which sex was determined were hens. In western North Dakota and western South Dakota, 65% of mallard and northern pintail remains found at dens were hens compared with 76% in eastern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota ( P < 0.05). Percentage hens varied among the 5 most common dabbling ducks found at dens. In eastern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota, where predation on ducks was greatest, an average of 64% of gadwall, 73% of northern pintail, 81% of blue-winged teal, 81% of mallard, and 90% of northern shoveler remains found at dens were hens. Percentage hens among duck remains found at dens increased as the duck nesting season progressed. Numbers of adult ducks found at individual dens ranged from 0 to 67. The average number of ducks found in and around den entrances was used as an index of fox predation rates on ducks. Predation rate indices ranged from 0.01 duck/den in Iowa to 1.80 ducks/den in eastern North Dakota. Average annual predation rate indices for dabbling ducks in a 3-county intensive study area in eastern North Dakota were closely correlated with May pond numbers ( r = 0.874, P < 0.10) and duck population size ( r = 0.930, P < 0.05), but all species were not affected in the same manner or to the same degree. Drought had least effect on populations and predation rate indices of mallards and gadwalls and had greatest effect on those of northern pintails and northern shovelers. Hens of early nesting species were more vulnerable to foxes than hens of late nesting species. Predation rate indices were expanded to estimate total numbers of ducks taken by fox families during the denning season. Estimated numbers of dabbling ducks taken annually by individual fox families in 2 physiographic regions comprising the intensive study area ranged from 16.1 to 65.9. Predation was highest during wet years and lowest during dry years and averaged lower, but was more variable, in the region where tillage was greatest and wetland water levels were least stable. Predation in the intensive study area averaged 2.97 adult dabbling ducks/ km 2 /year and represented an estimated average annual loss of 13.5% of hen and 4.5% of drake populations in that area. Of 5,402 individual food items found at dens in the intensive study area, 24% were adult ducks. Ducks made up an estimated maximum average of 16% of the prey biomass required by fox families during the denning season. The average annual take of adult ducks by foxes in the midcontinent area was estimated to be about 900,000. This estimate included both scavenged and fox-killed ducks, as well as ducks taken after the denning season. Fox impact on midcontinent ducks was greatest in eastern North Dakota where both fox and duck densities were relatively high. Predation in that area was likely increased by environmental factors, especially intensive agriculture that concentrated nesting and reduced prey abundance. Predation by red foxes and other predators severely reduces duck production in the midcontinent area. Effective management to increase waterfowl production will necessitate coping with or reducing high levels of predation.

Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗