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USGS2007

Field-based evaluations of sampling techniques to support long-term monitoring of riparian ecosystems along wadeable streams on the Colorado Plateau

To better plan for and implement long-term ecological monitoring, we measured riparian vegetation and fluvial geomorphic features at pilot study sites on four wadeable perennial stream reaches, representative of drainages across the Colorado Plateau. Our primary objectives were to (1) collect field data, (2) evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of various ecological measures and measurement techniques for riparian ecosystems, and (3) use field-based sampling to inform and refine the development of standard operating procedures for use in implementing integrated, long-term monitoring of riparian ecosystems. Ultimately, this work was aimed at providing NPS staff with some of the information and methods needed to design and implement long-term monitoring of NPS riparian resources, which is both relevant to management, and fully operational within institutional resource constraints. Our results suggest that selecting sampling reaches and establishing a sampling frame of 11 transects, across a range of stream types, is feasible given a limited set of decision rules. A distinctive feature of richness across all sites was the high percentage of rare species, defined here as species having a single occurrence at a site. Rare species represented from 33 percent to 47 percent of the species total across the four pilot sites. Our data show that the two smallest quadrat sizes, 0.01 m 2 and 0.1 m 2 , rarely had any species that occurred in the desired frequency range and can be omitted from the monitoring protocol. Few species fell within the 30–70 percent range in the 1-m 2 quadrats, but this quadrat size appears to be useful at the Tsaile Creek (CACH) site. We recommend continuing to collect information at the 1-m 2 scale and reevaluating its usefulness after more data are available from different types of sites. The 10-m 2 quadrat is adequate for monitoring changes in frequencies of very common species at all sites. Based on pilot study results, we conclude that at sites with low total species numbers (< 60 species), 40–60, 10-m 2 quadrats, would be sufficient to characterize overall species diversity for relatively common species. At sites with higher total numbers of species (> 100), 60–80, 10-m 2 quadrats would be required to characterize overall species diversity. Rare species of interest should be monitored using alternative approaches, such as a site inventory and/or mapping (see Elzinga and others, 1998). A large number of the systematically placed 10-m 2 quadrats span two or more geomorphic surfaces, especially adjacent to the channel. This makes resolution of species affinities with distinct geomorphic landforms difficult. Thus, we provide an amendment to improve characterization of herbaceous and shrub species on narrow, near-channel surfaces by sampling additional 0.5-m by 1-m quadrats on those surfaces. It appears that for sites in narrow valley settings where riparian zones average less than approximately 40 m, the number of 10-m 2 quadrats systematically placed on 11 transects will not provide shrub cover estimates at 20 percent precision. In such cases, additional sample reaches should be added in order to attain a minimum of 130 to 140 10-m 2 shrub quadrats. The line-intercept technique can provide a relatively rapid, reach-scale quantification of proportional cover for woody vegetation and geomorphic surface types and that variance in these measures stabilizes by the eighth or ninth transect sampled. An overlay of the distribution of geomorphic surface data derived from line-intercept sampling on topographic survey information indicates that delineation of geomorphic surfaces could be done in conjunction with the topographic survey of each transect, obviating the need to record surface breaks using the line intercept. To include geomorphic surface identifications with the topographic survey, surface breaks and transitional surfaces should be included and identified in the survey, in addition to systematically placed survey points. Compared to 5-m by 20-m tree quadrats, belt transects were shown to provide similar estimates of stand structure (stem density and stand basal area) in less than 30 percent of the time. Further, for the streams sampled, there were no statistically significant differences in stem density and basal area estimates between 10-m and 20-m belt transects and the smaller belts took approximately half the time to sample. There was, however, high variance associated with estimates of stand structure for infrequently occurring stems, such as large, relict or legacy riparian trees. Legacy riparian trees occurred in limited numbers at all sites sampled. A reachscale population census of these trees indicated that the 10-m belt transects tended to underestimate both stem density and basal area for these riparian forest elements and that a complete reach-scale census of legacy trees averaged less than one hour per site.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2018

Water-table and potentiometric-surface altitudes in the upper glacial, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers of Long Island, New York, April–May 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State and local agencies, systematically collects groundwater data at varying measurement frequencies to monitor the hydrologic conditions on Long Island, New York. Each year during April and May, the U.S. Geological Survey completes a synoptic survey of water levels to define the spatial distribution of the water table and potentiometric surfaces within the three main water-bearing units underlying Long Island—the upper glacial, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers—and the hydraulically connected Jameco and North Shore aquifers. These data and the maps constructed from them are commonly used in studies of the hydrology of Long Island and are used by water managers and suppliers for aquifer management and planning purposes. Water-level measurements made in 424 monitoring wells (observation and supply wells), 13 streamgages, and 2 lake gages across Long Island during April–May 2016 were used to prepare the maps in this report. Groundwater measurements were made by the wetted-tape or electric-tape method to the nearest hundredth of a foot. Contours of water-table and potentiometric-surface altitudes were created using the groundwater measurements. The water-table contours were interpreted using water-level data collected from 275 observation wells and 1 supply well screened in the upper glacial aquifer and the shallow Magothy aquifer and 13 streamgages and 2 lake gages. The potentiometric-surface contours of the Magothy aquifer were interpreted from measurements at 88 wells (61 observation wells and 27 supply wells) screened in the middle to deep Magothy aquifer and the contiguous and hydraulically connected Jameco aquifer. The potentiometric-surface contours of the Lloyd aquifer were interpreted from measurements at 60 wells (55 observation wells and 5 supply wells) screened in the Lloyd aquifer and the contiguous and hydraulically connected North Shore aquifer. Many of the supply wells are in continuous operation and, therefore, were turned off for a minimum of 24 hours before measurements were made to allow the water levels in the wells to recover to ambient (nonpumping) conditions. Full recovery time at some of these supply wells can exceed 24 hours; therefore, water levels measured at these wells are assumed to be less accurate than those measured at observation wells, which are not pumped. In addition to pumping stresses, density differences (saline water) also lower the water levels measured in certain wells. Recent water-quality data are lacking in these wells; therefore, a conversion to freshwater head could not be performed accurately and was not attempted. In this report, all water-level altitudes are referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29). The land surface altitude, or topography, was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The data were collected using light detection and ranging (lidar) and were used to produce a three-dimensional digital elevation model. The lidar data have a horizontal accuracy of 1.38 feet and a vertical accuracy of 0.40 foot at a 95-percent confidence level for the “open terrain” land-cover category. The digital elevation model was developed jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. Land surface altitude is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). On Long Island, NAVD 88 is approximately 1 foot higher than NGVD 29. Hydrographs are included on these maps for selected wells that have continuous digital recording equipment, and each hydrograph includes the water level measured during the synoptic survey. These hydrographs are representative of the 2016 water year and show the changes throughout that period; a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 to September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends.

New York↗

USGS2007

Effect of storms on barrier island dynamics, Core Banks, Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, 1960-2001

The effect of storms on long-term dynamics of barrier islands was evaluated on Core Banks, a series of barrier islands that extend from Cape Lookout to Okracoke Inlet in the Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina. Shoreline and elevation changes were determined by comparing 77 profiles and associated reference markers established by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) on Core Banks from June 1960 to July 1962 to a follow-up survey by Godfrey and Godfrey (G&G) in 1971 and a survey by the Department of Geology at East Carolina University (ECU) in 2001, in which 57 of the original 77 profiles were located. Evaluation of the baseline data associated with the USACE study supplies an important record of barrier island response to two specific storm events—Hurricane Donna in September 1960 and the Ash Wednesday extra-tropical cyclone in March 1962. The 1962 USACE survey was followed by 9 years characterized by no major storms; this low-energy period was captured by the G&G survey in 1971. The G&G survey was followed by 22 years characterized by occasional small to moderate storms. Starting in 1993, however, and continuing through 1999, the North Carolina coast experienced a major increase in storm activity, with seven major hurricanes impacting Core Banks. Both the USACE 1960–1962 and G&G 1962–1971 surveys produced short-term data sets that reflected very different sets of weather conditions. The ECU 2001 survey data were then compared with the USACE 1960 survey data to develop a long-term (41 years) data set for shoreline erosion on Core Banks. Those resulting long-term data were compared with the long-term (52 years) data sets by the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management (NCDCM) from 1940–1992 and 1946–1998; a strong positive correlation and very similar rates of average annual erosion resulted. However, the ECU and NCDCM long-term data sets did not correlate with either of the USACE and G&G short-term survey data and had very different average annual erosion rates. The average annual long-term rate of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks and for both the ECU 1960–2001 and the NCDCM 1946–1998 surveys was -5 feet per year (ft/yr). These long-term rates of shoreline recession are in strong contrast with the short-term, storm-dominated rates of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks developed by the USACE 1960–1961 and USACE 1961–1962 surveys, which have average annual erosion rates of -40 ft/yr and -26 ft/yr, respectively, and range from -226 feet (ft) to +153 ft. The combined short-term, storm-dominated shoreline erosion rate for the USACE surveys (1960–1962) was -36 ft/yr. In contrast, the average annual short-term, non-stormy period G&G 1962–1971 survey demonstrated shoreline accretion for all of Core Banks with an average annual rate of +12 ft/yr. In general, North Core Banks has higher erosion and accretion rates than South Core Banks. In the 1961 survey, the USACE installed 231 reference markers (RM-0 is closest to the ocean and RM-2 is farthest from the ocean) along the 77 profiles, as well as 33 reference markers labeled RM-4, RM-6, and RM-8 in the wider portions of the islands. The G&G survey recovered a total of 141 reference markers (61 percent), and the ECU survey recovered a total of 83 reference markers (36 percent) of the RM-0, RM-1, and RM-2 markers. The average ground elevation measured by the USACE in 1961 was RM-0 = +5.8 ft, RM-1 = +5.2 ft, and RM-2 = +4.8 ft. The G&G 1970 survey measured average ground elevations of RM-0 = +6.7 ft, RM-1 = +6.4 ft, and RM-2 = +6.1 ft, and the average ground elevation measured by ECU in 2001 was RM-0 = +10.1 ft, RM-1 = +9.1 ft, and RM-2 = +8.5 ft. The latter numbers represent approximately an overall 72-percent increase in island elevation from 1961 to 2001. Based on aerial photographic time-slice analyses, it is hypothesized that this increase in island elevation occurred during the post-1962 period with storm overwash systematically raising the island elevation through time, which in turn led to decreased numbers of overwash events. The latter processes and responses in turn led to a substantial increase in vegetative growth on the barrier island, as well as submerged aquatic vegetation on the back-barrier sand shoals. Integration of the USACE, G&G, ECU, and NCDCM shoreline erosion data for Core Banks shows several important points about shoreline recession. (1) The ECU and NCDCM data sets demonstrate that there is an ongoing net, long-term, but small-scale shoreline recession associated with Core Banks; (2) the USACE short-term data sets demonstrate that processes associated with individual storm events or sets of events produce extremely large-scale changes that include both erosion and accretion; (3) the short-term, non-stormy period data set of G&G demonstrates that if given enough time between storm events, barriers can rebuild to their pre-storm period conditions; and (4) the post-storm response generally tends to approach the pre-storm location, but rarely reaches it before the next storm or stormy period sets in. The result is the net long-term change documented by both the ECU 1960–2001 and NCDCM 1946–1998 Core Banks data sets that resulted in erosion rates ranging from 0 to -30 ft/yr with net annual average recession rates of -5 ft/yr. Analysis and comparison of these data sets supply important information for understanding the dynamics and responses of barrier island systems through time. In addition, the results of the present study on Core Banks supply essential process-response information that can be used to design and implement management plans for the Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores and for other seashores in the U.S. National Park Service system.

North Carolina↗

USGS2009

Groundwater-Quality Assessment, Pike County, Pennsylvania, 2007

Pike County, a 545 square-mile area in northeastern Pennsylvania, has experienced the largest relative population growth of any county in the state from 1990 to 2000 and its population is projected to grow substantially through 2025. This growing population may result in added dependence and stresses on water resources, including the potential to reduce the quantity and degrade the quality of groundwater and associated stream base flow with changing land use. Groundwater is the main source of drinking water in the county and is derived primarily from fractured-rock aquifers (shales, siltstones, and sandstones) and some unconsolidated glacial deposits that are recharged locally from precipitation. The principal land uses in the county as of 2005 were public, residential, agricultural, hunt club/private recreational, roads, and commercial. The public lands cover a third of the county and include national park, state park, and other state lands, much of which are forested. Individual on-site wells and wastewater disposal are common in many residential areas. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pike County Conservation District, began a study to provide current information on groundwater quality throughout the county that will be helpful for water-resource planning. The countywide reconnaissance assessment of groundwater quality documents current conditions with existing land uses and may serve as a baseline of groundwater quality for future comparison. Twenty wells were sampled in 2007 throughout Pike County to represent groundwater quality in the principal land uses (commercial, high-density and moderate-density residential with on-site wastewater disposal, residential in a sewered area, pre-development, and undeveloped) and geologic units (five fractured-rock aquifers and one glacial unconsolidated aquifer). Analyses selected for the groundwater samples were intended to identify naturally occurring constituents from the aquifer or constituents introduced by human activities that pose a health risk or otherwise were of concern in groundwater in the county. The analyses included major ions, nutrients, selected trace metals, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), selected organic wastewater compounds, gross alpha-particle and gross beta-particle activity, uranium, and radon-222. Analyses of the 20 samples were primarily for dissolved constituents, but six samples were analyzed for both dissolved and total metals. Results of the 2007 sampling indicated few water-quality problems, although concentrations of some constituents indicated influence of human activities on groundwater. No constituent analyzed exceeded any primary drinking-water standard or maximum contaminant level (MCL) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Radon-222 levels were greater than, or equal to, the proposed MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) in water from 15 (75 percent) of the 20 wells. Radon-222 levels did not exceed the alternative MCL of 4,000 pCi/L in any groundwater sample. Radon-222 is naturally occurring, and the greatest concentrations (up to 2,650 pCi/L) were in water samples from wells in members of the Catskill Formation, a fractured-rock aquifer. The dissolved arsenic concentration of 3.9 micrograms per liter (ug/L) in one sample was greater than the health-advisory (HA) level of 2 ug/L but less than the MCL of 10 ug/L. Recommended or secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) were exceeded for pH, dissolved iron, and dissolved manganese. In six samples analyzed for dissolved and total concentrations of selected metals, total concentrations commonly were much greater than dissolved concentrations of iron, and to a lesser degree, for arsenic, lead, copper, and manganese. Concentrations of iron above the SMCL of 300 ug/L may be more widespread in the county for particulate iron than for dissolved iron. The total arsenic concentration in one of the six samples was greater than the HA level of

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2026

Groundwater-level elevations in the bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–23

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS1999

Environmental issues associated with fossil fuel resources; an evaluation of research opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program

Fossil fuel consumption in the United States has nearly tripled within the last 50 years (fig. 1), and is expected to continue increasing. As our knowledge and awareness of environmental consequences related to fossil fuel extraction and use grow, we as a nation, face the challenge of balancing our energy requirements with a desire for environmentally cleaner fuel. To help meet this challenge, the Energy Resources Program (ERP) of the Geologic Division (GD), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sponsored three internal workshops and a World Wide Web (WWW) workshop. The primary goal of these workshops was to identify those environmental issues that are related to fossil fuels, are national in scope, and are within the purview of the USGS as an earth-science government agency. Those issues so identified will be prioritized according to ERP's future research plan and according to the extent they provide an environmental framework for ERP's petroleum and coal assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide the results of the internal and WWW workshops as proposed topics of research for future ERP work, delineate studies to answer the questions related to each proposed research area, and link the studies to the seven science goals of the Geologic Division. The information provided herein will be used in preparing the USGS Geologic Division's FY2000 prospectus and ERP's next five-year strategic plan. Acknowledgements. The authors wish to acknowledge information on ERP environmental projects provided by Les Magoon, Paul Lillis, Keith Kvenvolden, Tom Lorenson, and Bob Rosenbauer. Peter Schweitzer was instrumental in providing the software for the WWW workshop, Cheryl Adkisson for constructing the workshop web pages, and Laura Friedrich for constructing the web pages summarizing the internal workshops. Stan Mroczkowski, Jim Otton, Donna Read, and Dorothy Tanti provided notes of or logistical assistance for the internal workshops. This report reflects the collective input of numerous USGS managers and scientists their participation in the workshops is greatly appreciated.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1981

Geophysical surveys of the Hells Hole Further Planning Area (RARE II), Greenlee County, Arizona, and Grant County, New Mexico

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

USGS2018

Delineation of selected lithologic units using airborne electromagnetic data near Cedar Rapids, Iowa

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, began a study in 2013 to better understand the effects of drought stress on the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. After an evaluation of the existing groundwater-flow models for the alluvial aquifer, a plan was begun to construct an updated groundwater-flow model capable of evaluating the effect of prolonged drought and increased demand. As part of the effort to update the existing groundwater-flow model, data were collected during an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey in May 2017. The study area for the AEM survey encompasses about 53 square kilometers of the Cedar River Basin, west of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and includes a 19-kilometer reach of the Cedar River. The AEM survey of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and adjacent areas was completed to characterize the subsurface geology of the area to refine a lithologic framework. The collected AEM data were postprocessed by numerical inversion using the program EM1DFM to produce subsurface apparent resistivity cross sections. Changes observed in resistivity profile values with depth were used to infer lithologic changes and delineate three of the four lithologic units designated in the lithologic framework for this area: alluvial deposits, glacial till, and bedrock; hereafter referred to as the “lithologic framework.” The fourth unit, composed of surficial eolian sediments, was not delineated in these profiles because these units are thin and discontinuous and are not reliably distinguishable from flood plain alluvial deposits. For the purposes of delineating lithologic units using the AEM data, bedrock was assumed to be the lowest unit in a profile, glacial till was deposited on a bedrock surface, and alluvium was deposited on erosional till or bedrock surfaces. A three-dimensional fence diagram was created as part of the lithologic framework to further define the extent and thickness of the lithologic units near the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. The fence diagram shows a three-dimensional perspective of unit thickness, extent, and orientation of the delineated lithologic framework. A lithologic framework, by design, is intended to represent a simplification of a more complex natural system through data interpolation between known points, which usually are lithologic logs. The resistivity profiles produced from the AEM survey allow for continuous mapping and accurate interpolation of lithology between lithologic logs; however, the apparent resistivity value may reflect several characteristics of subsurface materials including variations in lithology, porosity, water quality, grain sorting, and degree of saturation. In this study, the only variables considered were those related to changes in the subsurface material.

Iowa↗

USGS1994

Permeability of soils in Mississippi

The permeability of soils in Mississippi was determined and mapped using a geographic information system (GIS). Soil permeabilities in Mississippi were determined to range in value from nearly 0.0 to values exceeding 5.0 inches per hour. The U.S. Soil Conservation Service's State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO) was used as the primary source of data for the determination of area-weighted soil permeability. STATSGO provides soil layer properties that are spatially referenced to mapped areas. These mapped areas are referred to as polygons in the GIS. The polygons arc boundaries of soils mapped as a group and are given unique Map Unit Identifiers (MUIDs). The data describing the physical characteristics of the soils within each polygon are stored in a tabular data base format and are referred to as attributes. The U.S. Soil Conservation Service developed STATSGO to be primarily used as a guide for regional resource planning, management, and monitoring. STATSGO was designed so that soil information could be extracted from properties tables at the layer level, combined by component, and statistically expanded to cover the entire map unit. The results of this study provide a mapped value for permeability which is representative of the vertical permeability of soils in that area. The resultant permeability map provides a representative vertical soil permeability for a given area sufficient for county, multi- county, and area planning, and will be used as the soil permeability data component in the evaluation of the susceptibility of major aquifers to contami- nation in Mississippi.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2004

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center regional science plan—2023–28

The U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC), established in 2012, is part of a national network supporting climate-informed decisions that benefit wildlife and habitats. The NC CASC provides climate science for the U.S. Department of the Interior, State agencies, and Tribal nations to support effective resource management. Collaborating with the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Center network, the NC CASC addresses multiregion challenges through a partnership involving the U.S. Geological Survey and additional regional partners. Input is collected from an Advisory Committee of State, Federal, and Tribal Government representatives. The center hosts Tribal Climate Resilience Liaisons, which are funded by the Bureau of Indian Affairs Branch of Tribal Climate Resilience and aligned with a Tribal Engagement Strategy. Positioned at the meeting point of scientists and managers and guided by core values, the NC CASC studies diverse ecosystems affected by climate change and empowers resource managers with actionable data and innovative science. This report outlines the 5-year Science Plan (hereafter “the Plan”) for the NC CASC. The center uses stakeholder engagement and coproduction of knowledge for effective collaboration, including engagement of Advisory Committee members and other management partners in the development of the Plan. The Plan provides a high-level overview of the NC CASC, covering the center’s geographical scope, key collaborators, stakeholders, and the strategic framework guiding the application of climate science to make informed management decisions. The Plan also summarizes management challenges and scientific objectives related to the impact of climate change on habitat, ecological drought, wildlife disease, invasives and encroachment, fire, and phenology.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska,↗

USGS2017

Quantifying drivers of wild pig movement across multiple spatial and temporal scales

Background The movement behavior of an animal is determined by extrinsic and intrinsic factors that operate at multiple spatio-temporal scales, yet much of our knowledge of animal movement comes from studies that examine only one or two scales concurrently. Understanding the drivers of animal movement across multiple scales is crucial for understanding the fundamentals of movement ecology, predicting changes in distribution, describing disease dynamics, and identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. Methods We obtained over 400,000 GPS locations of wild pigs from 13 different studies spanning six states in southern U.S.A., and quantified movement rates and home range size within a single analytical framework. We used a generalized additive mixed model framework to quantify the effects of five broad predictor categories on movement: individual-level attributes, geographic factors, landscape attributes, meteorological conditions, and temporal variables. We examined effects of predictors across three temporal scales: daily, monthly, and using all data during the study period. We considered both local environmental factors such as daily weather data and distance to various resources on the landscape, as well as factors acting at a broader spatial scale such as ecoregion and season. Results We found meteorological variables (temperature and pressure), landscape features (distance to water sources), a broad-scale geographic factor (ecoregion), and individual-level characteristics (sex-age class), drove wild pig movement across all scales, but both the magnitude and shape of covariate relationships to movement differed across temporal scales. Conclusions The analytical framework we present can be used to assess movement patterns arising from multiple data sources for a range of species while accounting for spatio-temporal correlations. Our analyses show the magnitude by which reaction norms can change based on the temporal scale of response data, illustrating the importance of appropriately defining temporal scales of both the movement response and covariates depending on the intended implications of research (e.g., predicting effects of movement due to climate change versus planning local-scale management). We argue that consideration of multiple spatial scales within the same framework (rather than comparing across separate studies post-hoc) gives a more accurate quantification of cross-scale spatial effects by appropriately accounting for error correlation.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS1972

Determination of channel capacity of the Mokelumne River downstream from Camanche Dam, San Joaquin and Sacramento Counties, California

This study evaluates the adequacy of a 39-mile reach of the Mokelumne River in San Joaquin and Sacramento Counties, California, to carry planned flood releases between Camanche Reservoir and the Bensons Ferry Bridge near Thornton. The flood releases from Camanche Reservoir are to be restricted, insofar as possible, so that the flows in the Mokelumne River will not exceed 5,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) as measured at the gaging station below Camanche Dam. Areas of inundation and computed floodwater profiles are based on channel conditions in late 1970 and on observed water-surface profiles during flood releases of about 5,000 cfs in January 1969 and January 1970. The inundated area shown on the maps (appendix A) and the water-surface elevations indicated on the cross sections (appendix G) are for the flood releases of those dates. The following conclusions are contingent on there being no levee failures during periods of high flow and no significant channel changes since the flood release of January 1970. 1. High tides in San Francisco Bay and, to a greater degree, flood stages on the Cosumnes River, cause backwater in the study reach. Severe backwater conditions occurring simultaneously with a flow of 5,000 cfs in the Mokelumne River can increase the flood stage 4 to 6 feet at Bensons Ferry Bridge (cross section 1). Backwater effects decrease in an upstream direction and are less than 0.5 foot at cross section 35, a river distance of 8.6 miles upstream from cross section 1, and 1.5 miles downstream from the Peltier Road bridge. 2. In the reach between cross sections 1 and 35, a 5,000 cfs release from Camanche Reservoir with maximum backwater effect (measured at cross section 1 at the mouth of the Cosumnes River) is confined within the natural or leveed banks except on the right bank flood plain between cross sections 12 and 19. 3. Upstream from cross section 35, there is overbank flooding at a flow of 5,000 cfs between cross sections 48 and 51, and 62 and 67.5. An increase in flow from 5,000 to 6,000 cfs will cause flooding between cross sections 43 and 47, 52 and 56, and 73 and 85. 4. A discharge of 5,000 cfs will pass through all bridge openings in the study reach except that of the Western Pacific Railroad Co. bridge at cross section 4. If large amounts of debris lodge on the railroad bridge when backwater from the Cosumnes River occurs, the debris could cause higher stages and flooding along the right bank between cross sections 5 and 12.

California↗

USGS2016

Hawksbill satellite-tracking case study: Implications for remigration interval and population estimates

Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are circumtropically distributed and listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN (Meylan & Donnelly 1999; NMFS & USFWS 1993). To aid in population recovery and protection, the Hawksbill Recovery Plan identified the need to determine demographic information for hawksbills, such as distribution, abundance, seasonal movements, foraging areas (sections 121 and 2211), growth rates, and survivorship (section 2213, NMFS & USFWS 1993). Mark-recapture analyses are helpful in estimating demographic parameters and have been used for hawksbills throughout the Caribbean (e.g., Richardson et al. 1999; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008); integral to these studies are recaptures at the nesting site as well as remigration interval estimates (Hays 2000). Estimates of remigration intervals (the duration between nesting seasons) are critical to marine turtle population estimates and measures of nesting success (Hays 2000; Richardson et al. 1999). Although hawksbills in the Caribbean generally show natal philopatry and nesting-site fidelity (Bass et al. 1996; Bowen et al. 2007), exceptions to this have been observed for hawksbills and other marine turtles (Bowen & Karl 2007; Diamond 1976; Esteban et al. 2015; Hart et al. 2013). This flexibility in choosing a nesting beach could therefore affect the apparent remigration interval and subsequently, region-wide population counts.

Marine Turtle Newsletter↗

USGS2016

Summary of environmental flow monitoring for the Sustainable Rivers Project on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers, western Oregon, 2014–15

This report presents the results of an ongoing environmental flow monitoring study by The Nature Conservancy (TNC), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Geological Survey in support of the Sustainable Rivers Project (SRP) of TNC and USACE. The overarching goal of this study is to evaluate and characterize relations between streamflow, geomorphic processes, and black cottonwood ( Populus trichocarpa ) recruitment on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers, western Oregon, that were hypothesized in earlier investigations. The SRP can use this information to plan future monitoring and scientific investigations, and to help mitigate the effects of dam operations on streamflow regimes, geomorphic processes, and biological communities, such as black cottonwood forests, in consultation with regional experts. The four tasks of this study were to: Compare the hydrograph from Water Year (WY) 2015 with hydrographs from WYs 2000–14 and the SRP flow recommendations, Assess short-term and system-wide changes in channel features and vegetation throughout the alluvial valley section of the Middle Fork Willamette River (2005–12), Examine changes in channel features and vegetation over two decades (1994–2014) for two short mapping zones on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers, and Complete a field investigation of summer stage and the growth of black cottonwood and other vegetation on the Middle Fork Willamette and McKenzie Rivers in summer 2015.

Oregon↗

USGS2007

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2008

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2025

Informing adaptive management to reduce ungulate aggregations: A case study involving winter feeding of elk

In the United States, wildlife managers are entrusted with preserving culturally and economically important ungulate populations in the face of the ongoing spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established an adaptive management plan to reduce the reliance of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) on supplemental winter feeding on the National Elk Refuge. The end goal of reducing the unnaturally high aggregation of elk during the winter is to mitigate the threat of disease outbreaks and to meet the objectives of sustainable populations of elk on the refuge. In this case study, we evaluated 6 years (2017–2022) of data from GPS-collared elk to determine the efficacy of shortening the length of the annual feeding period on the refuge to reduce elk aggregation. We measured aggregation using proximity rates, based on pairwise interactions over time, in both raw form as an index as well as predicted proximity as a function of other abiotic influences. We created a new R package, wildagg , to help with the process of computing the metrics from our study and to increase reproducibility in the future. Aggregation declined in years with less feeding on the refuge according to raw aggregation metrics when examined in isolation and dependent on the baseline feeding year used for comparison. However, accounting for abiotic factors while modeling proximity rates suggested in some years the decision to shorten the feeding period had less influence on aggregation than predicted. Our results underscore the complexity of measuring management outcomes and the usefulness of multiple approaches to evaluation.

Wyoming↗